| 铅锌日评20251010：震荡整理 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/10/10 指标 单位 今值 | | | | | 变动 近期趋势 | | | | 元/吨 16,800.00 SMM1#铅锭平均价格 | | | | | 0.00% | | | | 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 17,115.00 | 沪铅期现价格 | | | | 1.03% | | | | 元/吨 -315.00 沪铅基差 | | | | | -175.00 | | | | 升贴水-上海 元/吨 -10.00 | | | | | -10.00 | | | | 升贴水-LME 0-3 美元/吨 -29.64 升贴水-LME 3-15 美元/吨 -68.30 | | | | | 7.66 5.90 | | | | 沪铅近月-沪铅连一 元/吨 -15.00 | 价差 | | | | 500.00 | | | | 元/吨 沪铅连一-沪铅连二 -20.00 | | | | | 25.00 | | | | 铅 沪铅连二-沪铅连三 元/吨 ...

| 铜产业期现日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年10月10日 星期五 | | | 周敏波 | Z0015979 | | 价格及基差 | | | | | | 现值 | 前值 | 日涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | 車位 | | SMM 1#电解铜 85740 | 83240 | +2500.00 | 3.00% | 元/吨 | | SMM 1#电解铜开贴水 15 | JE | 0.00 | | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜 85700 | 83362 | +2335.00 | 2.80% | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜升贴水 30 | 90 | -60.00 | - | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜 85650 | 83145 | +2505.00 | 3.01% | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜开贴水 -75 | -80 | +5.00 | - | 元/肥 | | 精废价差 3400 | 3149 | +350.42 | 11.13% | 元/吨 | | LME 0-3 -29 ...

| 链期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011 1292号 周敏波 | 2025年10月9日 | | | | Z0015979 | | | 价格及价差 | | | | | | 现值 前值 涨跌 | | | | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 20720 | SMM A00铝 | 20690 | 30.0 | 0.14% | 元/吨 | | -20 | SMM A00铝升贴水 | -10 | -10.0 | / | 元/肥 | | 20720 | 长江 铝A00 | 20680 | 40.0 | 0.19% | 元/吨 | | -20 | 长江 铝A00 升贴水 | -20 | 0.0 | / | 元/肥 | | 氧化铝(山东)-平均价 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | / | 元/吨 | | 氧化铝(河南)-半均价 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | / | 元/肥 | | 氧化铝(山西)-平均价 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | / | 元/吨 | | 氧化铝(广西)-平均价 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | / ...

| | | | 有色金属现货升贴7 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国投期货有色金属团队 | | | | 2025/9/30 | | SMM 1#电解铜-平均价 | | 涨跌 | SMM平水铜升贴水 | 涨跌 | | 铜 | 83240 | 1030 | -30 | 10 | | SMM A00铝-平均价 | | 涨跌 | SMM A00铝升贴水 | 涨跌 | | 铝 | 20720 | 30 | -20 | -10 | | 氧化铝(山西) | | 涨跌 | 澳洲氧化铝FOB-平均价 ( 美元 ) | 涨跌(美元) | | 2930 | | -5 | 323 | 0 | | SMM 1#铅锭-平均价 | | 涨跌 | SMM 1#铅锭对当月期货10:15升贴水 | 涨跌 | | 16800 | | 0 | -125 | -35 | | 铝 | 再生精铅-平均价 | 再生铅均价-涨跌 | 精废价差 | 涨跌 | | 16775 | | 0 | 25 | 0 | | 锌 | SMM 0#锌锭-平均价 | 涨跌 | SMM 0#锌锭对当月期货10:15升贴水 | 涨跌 | ...

指标体系 沪锌: 1、基本面：外媒9月17日消息：世界金属统计局（WBMS）公布最新数据显 示，2025年7月，全球锌板产量为115.15万吨,消费量为116.29万吨,供应短 缺1.13万吨.1-7月,全球锌板产量为794.52万吨,消费量为815.85万吨,供应 短缺21.33万吨.7月份,全球锌矿产量为106.56万吨.1-7月,全球锌矿产量为 734.37万吨；偏多。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪锌期货早报-2025年10月9日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 2、基差：现货21880，基差+80；中性。 9月30日国内主要现货市场行情 3、库存：10月8日LME锌库存较上日增加50吨至38250吨，9月30日上期所锌 库存仓单较上日减少2043吨至57221吨；中性。 4、盘面：昨日沪锌震荡下 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for both unilateral and arbitrage strategies is neutral [6] Core Viewpoints - Overseas zinc inventory reduction trend remains unchanged; domestic supply pressure persists, and long - term inventory accumulation is expected. However, overseas factors support zinc prices, and attention should be paid to post - balance changes [1][5] Summary by Directory Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is $39.84 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price dropped by 320 yuan/ton to 21,630 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 25 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price dropped by 330 yuan/ton to 21,660 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 50 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price dropped by 330 yuan/ton to 21,620 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 35 yuan/ton [2] - **Futures**: On September 29, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 21,930 yuan/ton, closed at 21,800 yuan/ton (down 235 yuan/ton from the previous trading day), with a trading volume of 180,545 lots and a position of 142,400 lots. The highest price was 21,950 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 21,665 yuan/ton [3] - **Inventory**: As of September 29, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 141,400 tons, a decrease of 90,000 tons from the previous period. LME zinc inventory was 41,950 tons, a decrease of 825 tons from the previous trading day [4] Market Analysis - During the long holiday, downstream开工率 decreased. Before the holiday, with the decline of absolute prices, downstream actively purchased, and the spot discount was repaired, especially in Guangdong. The supply pressure in China remains. The TC of domestic zinc mines in October continued to decline, while the TC of imported zinc mines was as high as $140 per ton. The smelting profit of the industry was maintained, and the short - term replenishment behavior could not change the long - term inventory accumulation expectation. Overseas inventory problems remained unresolved, the export window was not opened, and the hawkish attitude overseas supported the zinc price [5] Strategy - **Unilateral**: Neutral [6] - **Arbitrage**: Neutral [6]

指标体系 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪锌期货早报-2025年9月30日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 沪锌: 1、基本面：外媒9月17日消息：世界金属统计局（WBMS）公布最新数据显 示，2025年7月，全球锌板产量为115.15万吨,消费量为116.29万吨,供应短 缺1.13万吨.1-7月,全球锌板产量为794.52万吨,消费量为815.85万吨,供应 短缺21.33万吨.7月份,全球锌矿产量为106.56万吨.1-7月,全球锌矿产量为 734.37万吨；偏多。 2、基差：现货21670，基差-130；偏空。 3、库存：9月29日LME锌库存较上日减少825吨至41950吨，9月29日上期所 锌库存仓单较上日增加1691吨至59264吨；中性。 4、盘面：昨日沪锌震荡下跌走势，收20日均线之下,2 ...

Group 1: Macro Strategy (Gold) - The amount of gold held in ETFs has increased by 0.60%, or 6.01 tons, reaching a total of 1011.73 tons as of September 29 [11] - Gold prices continue to rise, driven by market risk aversion due to the potential government shutdown in the U.S. and ongoing political disagreements [12][14] - The fundamental reason for long-term bullish sentiment on gold is the deteriorating fiscal situation and high government debt burden [12][14] Group 2: Macro Strategy (Government Bonds) - The National Development and Reform Commission announced a new policy financial tool with a total scale of 500 billion yuan aimed at stabilizing economic growth and promoting effective investment [15] - The bond market is expected to experience short-term fluctuations, but the probability of sustained adjustments is low, with recommendations to build long positions on dips [15] Group 3: Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Brazil's new crop planting rate has reached 3.2%, higher than the same period last year [20] - The U.S. soybean harvest rate is at 19%, in line with market expectations, with a good quality rating of 62% [21] - Domestic demand for soybean meal remains strong, with a decrease in inventory at oil mills [22] Group 4: Black Metals (Rebar/Hot Rolled Coil) - The Ministry of Water Resources expects investment in water conservancy construction during the 14th Five-Year Plan to exceed 5.4 trillion yuan, which is 1.6 times that of the previous plan [25] - Steel prices are expected to remain under pressure due to high iron water production and inventory accumulation, with recommendations for light positions ahead of the holiday [26][27] Group 5: Nonferrous Metals (Zinc) - The nonferrous metals industry has released a stable growth work plan, emphasizing orderly project construction and resource development [40][44] - Domestic zinc ingot inventory has decreased to 141,400 tons, indicating a tightening supply situation [45] - The market sentiment for zinc is cautiously optimistic, with potential for short-term price stabilization [46] Group 6: Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The liquid alkali market in Shandong has seen a slight decline, with general market demand being weak ahead of the holiday [47] - The price of liquid alkali has decreased due to insufficient downstream purchasing activity [48] Group 7: Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The domestic PVC powder market has shown a slight decline, with prices fluctuating between 0-10 yuan/ton [51] - The overall market remains weak, but low valuations may limit further price declines [52] Group 8: Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The utilization rate of compound fertilizer production capacity has decreased to 35.27%, indicating a reduction in production activity [53] - Urea prices are expected to remain under pressure due to high inventory levels and weak demand [54]

| 铜产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年9月30日 星期二 | | | | 周敏波 | Z0015979 | | 价格及基差 | | | | | | | | 现值 | 前值 | 日涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | 車位 | | SMM 1#电解铜 | 82210 | 82485 | -275.00 | -0.33% | JL/HPE | | SMM 1#电解铜升贴水 | -5 | -5 | 0.00 | - | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜 | 82190 | 82490 | -300.00 | -0.36% | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜升贴水 | 70 | 70 | 0.00 | - | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜 | 82125 | 82385 | -260.00 | -0.32% | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜升贴水 | -90 | -105 | +15.00 | - | 元/肥 | | 精废价差 | 2771 | 3011 | -240.0 ...

有色金属季报 四季度 旺季支撑价格 成色决定高度 投资咨询业务资格： 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 ——2025 年 4 季度有色金属分析报告 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 内容摘要： 有色金属季报 四季度 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 宏观：海外方面，受全球需求疲软、贸易摩擦及供应链重构影响，美国经济增长动能有所 放缓。制造业表现疲软，并未出现反转信号，但服务业相对强劲成为经济增长的主要引擎，劳 动力市场增长近乎停滞，下行风险上升，通胀水平呈小幅反弹趋势，核心通胀粘性仍较强，且 关税政策不确定性或继续推高通胀压力。市场普遍预期美联储 10 月份降息概率 ...