1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - Copper prices entered an adjustment phase. The supply - side copper mine TC is at a record low, and the port inventory is seasonally low. Refined copper production is expected to remain high. Demand has recovered, but downstream procurement sentiment is still weak when prices rebound. Global visible inventories are starting to decline. The 232 investigation results in June will cause short - term disturbances. In the long - term, the long - cycle logic of copper supply - demand contradiction remains unchanged. It is recommended to pay attention to long - term long - order layout opportunities, with the main contract focusing on the 97,000 - 98,000 pressure level [1]. Zinc - Zinc is in a cycle of weak supply and demand, and the overall contradiction is limited. The current contradiction in the zinc industry chain is concentrated between the mine end and the smelting end. The zinc mine TC in the first quarter of 2026 is weak. Although the smelting profit is under pressure, the smelting end has not seen large - scale production cuts due to high by - product profits. The demand side is relatively stable, and the processing industry's operating rate has continued to rise in the first quarter. If overseas prices strengthen, the zinc ingot export space may open again. Considering the low ratio of finished product inventory to raw material inventory in the processing industry, there is room for restocking. The domestic zinc ingot inventory pressure is limited. The zinc price is supported by smelting costs, and the downward space is limited. The main contract should pay attention to the support around 23,000 [5]. Tin - The supply - side tension has been significantly alleviated. The processing fees of smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi have increased, and the cumulative import volume of tin ore from January to February has increased significantly. The JFX exchange trading volume in February is expected to stabilize Indonesia's export level. The downstream consumption of tin is gradually recovering, with some traditional consumption being slightly weak, and the photovoltaic demand has slightly improved. With the market risk preference restored, the tin price is expected to be strong in the short - term. It is recommended to buy long orders and pay attention to the downstream's acceptance of high - priced tin [8]. Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon still faces the pressure of over - supply. The cost side provides support, but the decline of polysilicon prices has spread panic to the industrial silicon sector. The supply elasticity of industrial silicon is large. Low - price and loss - making situations will suppress the resumption of production in the southwest region. Industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate between 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of production control, environmental protection, and cost - side fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see and look for opportunities to try long positions at low prices [10]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon is in a cycle of over - supply, and the price will continue to be under pressure. Many enterprises have production increase expectations, which will open up the downward space for spot prices. The current spot price is approaching the unit cost and moving towards the cash cost. The market sentiment tends to trade for market - clearing. It is recommended to wait and see. If participating, consider trying long positions after the price stabilizes, but pay attention to position control and stop - loss settings [12]. Aluminum - The alumina industry is in a stage of relative over - capacity. The price is expected to fluctuate around the industry cost line in the long - term. The new low - cost capacity in Guangxi will be gradually released in the second quarter, which will put pressure on the spot price. It is recommended to maintain a short - selling strategy at high prices in the short - term. The electrolytic aluminum price is supported by the supply - side due to the Middle - East geopolitical conflict. The LME aluminum inventory is at a historical low, and the domestic market demand has recovered. The domestic market is expected to enter the de - stocking cycle in April. The short - term core operating range of Shanghai aluminum is expected to be 24,000 - 26,000 yuan/ton [13]. Nickel - The nickel market has a complex situation. The Indonesian government plans to levy export taxes on nickel products, and the raw material supply is tight. The high - nickel pig iron price is stable and strong, but the steel mills have a strong price - pressing attitude. The supply of refined nickel still has pressure. The overseas market is gently de - stocking, while the domestic market is still accumulating inventory. The nickel price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 134,000 - 140,000 [14]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy price is driven by the cost of electrolytic aluminum. In the second quarter, the demand for casting aluminum alloy is seasonally weak, and the supply of scrap aluminum is tight. The industry is in a weak - balance state. The short - term price operating range is expected to be 23,000 - 24,500 yuan/ton, and it follows the electrolytic aluminum price. It is necessary to track macro events and domestic tax policy changes [16]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel market is affected by macro and raw material news. The raw material supply is tight, and the high - nickel pig iron price is stable and strong. The steel mills' production has increased significantly, and the demand is gradually recovering but the terminal acceptance is still weak. The short - term price is expected to maintain a strong - side shock, with the main contract reference range of 14,200 - 14,800 [18]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures price fell significantly. The policy news from Zimbabwe has affected the market sentiment. The fundamental data of lithium carbonate remains resilient, with both supply and demand increasing. The upstream salt - factory supply is gradually increasing, and the demand is generally optimistic. The social inventory has started to accumulate. The short - term market may adjust, and the main contract is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 153,000 - 160,000 [21]. 3. Summaries by Catalog Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 95,600 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.43%. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium is - 55 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference is - 251 yuan/ton, with a significant decline [1]. - **Monthly Fundamental Data**: In February, the electrolytic copper production was 1.1424 million tons, a decrease of 3.13% month - on - month; the import volume was 0.153 million tons, a decrease of 24.95% month - on - month [1]. - **Weekly Fundamental Data**: The import copper concentrate index is - 68.85 dollars/ton, a decrease of 2.27% week - on - week. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory is 0.5747 million tons, an increase of 12.25% week - on - week. The electrolytic copper rod operating rate is 83.17%, an increase of 1.66% week - on - week; the recycled copper rod operating rate is 5.83%, a decrease of 8.99% week - on - week [1]. - **Inventory Data**: The domestic social inventory is 0.4031 million tons, a decrease of 13.81% week - on - week; the bonded area inventory is 0.0582 million tons, a decrease of 4.90% week - on - week; the SHFE inventory is 0.3591 million tons, a decrease of 12.64% week - on - week [1]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 23,430 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.04%. The import profit and loss is - 2,852 yuan/ton, a decrease of 166.67 yuan compared with the previous value [5]. - **Monthly Fundamental Data**: In February, the refined zinc production was 0.5046 million tons, a decrease of 9.99% month - on - month; the import volume was 0.0045 million tons, a decrease of 81.26% month - on - month; the export volume was 0.0039 million tons, an increase of 91.58% month - on - month [5]. - **Weekly Fundamental Data**: The galvanizing operating rate is 58.88%, a decrease of 0.82% week - on - week; the die - casting zinc alloy operating rate is 51.80%, an increase of 0.19% week - on - week; the zinc oxide operating rate is 55.50%, an increase of 0.14% week - on - week [5]. - **Inventory Data**: The seven - region social inventory of zinc ingots in China is 0.2482 million tons, a decrease of 2.74% week - on - week; the LME inventory is 0.115 million tons, a decrease of 0.67% day - on - day [5]. Tin - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price is 371,550 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 2.69%. The import profit and loss is - 6,623.60 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.90% [8]. - **Monthly Fundamental Data**: In February, the tin ore import volume was 17,144 tons, a decrease of 3.69% month - on - month; the SMM refined tin production was 11,490 tons, a decrease of 23.91% month - on - month; the refined tin import volume was 2,168 tons, an increase of 96.91% month - on - month; the refined tin export volume was 1,216 tons, a decrease of 24.14% month - on - month [8]. - **Inventory Data**: The SHEF inventory is 8,400 tons, a decrease of 16.35% week - on - week; the social inventory is 9,102 tons, a decrease of 17.08% week - on - week; the SHEF warehouse receipt is 6,775 tons, a decrease of 3.75% day - on - day [8]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Basis**: The price of East China oxygen - passed SI5530 industrial silicon is 9,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.54%. The basis (based on SI5530) is 795 yuan/ton, an increase of 10.42% [10]. - **Monthly Fundamental Data**: The national industrial silicon production is 329,900 tons, an increase of 19.66% month - on - month; the Xinjiang industrial silicon production is 209,800 tons, an increase of 25.94% month - on - month; the Yunnan industrial silicon production is 14,800 tons, an increase of 10.86% month - on - month; the Sichuan industrial silicon production is 900 tons, an increase of DIV/0! month - on - month [10]. - **Inventory Data**: The Xinjiang factory - warehouse inventory is 133,900 tons, a decrease of 4.90% week - on - week; the Yunnan factory - warehouse inventory is 33,200 tons, an increase of 0.61% week - on - week; the social inventory is 560,000 tons, an increase of 1.27% week - on - week [10]. Polysilicon - **Price and Spread**: The average price of N - type re -投料 is 38,500 yuan/kg, a decrease of 1.91%. The main contract price is 35,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.69% [12]. - **Weekly Fundamental Data**: The silicon wafer production is 11.38 GM, a decrease of 3.40% week - on - week; the multi - layer silicon production is 19,400 tons, an increase of 2.11% week - on - week [12]. - **Monthly Fundamental Data**: The polysilicon production is 77,000 tons, a decrease of 23.61% month - on - month; the polysilicon import volume is 1,600 tons, an increase of 54.97% month - on - month; the polysilicon export volume is 2,200 tons, an increase of 20.51% month - on - month [12]. - **Inventory Data**: The polysilicon inventory is 332,000 tons, a decrease of 3.49% month - on - month; the silicon wafer inventory is 26.98 CM, a decrease of 2.42% month - on - month; the polysilicon warehouse receipt is 11,030 tons, an increase of 0.09% day - on - day [12]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price is 24,610 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.33%. The electrolytic aluminum import profit and loss is - 4,741 yuan/ton, an increase of 74.3 yuan compared with the previous value [13]. - **Monthly Fundamental Data**: In March, the alumina production was 7.2974 million tons, an increase of 10.56% month - on - month; the domestic electrolytic aluminum production was 3.8311 million tons, an increase of 10.73% month - on - month; the overseas electrolytic aluminum production was 2.5725 million tons, an increase of 8.46% month - on - month [13]. - **Weekly Fundamental Data**: The alumina operating rate is 76.43%, a decrease of 0.27% week - on - week; the aluminum profile operating rate is 59.00%, an increase of 7.27% week - on - week; the aluminum cable operating rate is 66.00%, an increase of 1.54% week - on - week [13]. - **Inventory Data**: The Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory is 1.373 million tons, an increase of 2.69% week - on - week; the Chinese aluminum rod social inventory is 0.3215 million tons, a decrease of 5.86% week - on - week; the LME inventory is 0.417 million tons, a decrease of 0.45% day - on - day [13]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 136,950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.54%. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium is 3,750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21.05% [14]. - **Cost Data**: The cost of integrated MHP to produce electrowon nickel is 113,324 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.69% month - on - month; the cost of integrated high - grade nickel matte to produce electrowon nickel is 141,713 yuan/ton, an increase of 11.34% month - on - month [14]. - **Monthly Fundamental Data**: The Chinese refined nickel production is 32,600 tons, a decrease of 7.45% month - on - month; the refined nickel import volume is 23,394 tons, an increase of 84.63% month - on - month [14]. - **Inventory Data**: The SHFE inventory is 64,479 tons, an increase of 1.28% week - on - week; the social inventory is 89,808 tons, an increase of 1.54% week - on - week; the LME inventory is 281,526 tons, a decrease of 0.02% day - on - day [14]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 is 24,700 yuan/ton, with no change. The Jiangxi Baotai Network ADC12 - A00 price difference is - 410 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24.24% [16]. - **Monthly Fundamental Data**: In February, the recycled aluminum alloy ingot production was 358,000 tons, a decrease of 41.31% month - on - month; the primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 209,300 tons, a decrease of 30.99% month - on - month; the scrap aluminum production was 504,600 tons, a decrease of 33.68% month - on - month [16]. - **Weekly Fundamental Data**: The recycled aluminum alloy operating rate is 31.34%, a decrease of 41.87% week - on - week; the primary aluminum alloy operating rate is 44.73%, a decrease of 23.59% week - on - week [16]. - **Inventory Data**: The weekly social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 33,700 tons,

Group 1: Stock Recommendations - Jiangfeng Electronics (300666.SZ) is expected to see revenue growth of 27.75% in 2025, reaching 4.605 billion CNY, with a net profit of 481 million CNY, up 20.15%[10] - Rilian Technology (688531.SH) anticipates a revenue increase of 44.88% in 2025, achieving 1.071 billion CNY, with a net profit of 174 million CNY, up 21.81%[15] - Hengtong Optic-Electric (600487.SH) is positioned to benefit from a booming optical communication sector, with a projected revenue of 40.2 times PE in 2025[19] - Zhejiang Xiantong (603239.SH) is expected to grow steadily in the automotive sealing strip business, with a revenue forecast of 1.47 billion CNY in 2025, up 20.2%[29] Group 2: Market Trends and Insights - The global semiconductor sputtering target market is projected to exceed 25.11 billion CNY by 2027, driven by rising demand for ultra-pure metal sputtering targets[12] - The demand for optical fibers in global data centers is expected to reach 91.6 million core kilometers in 2026, a 32% increase year-on-year[20] - The lithium industry is experiencing a recovery, with Jiangfeng Electronics benefiting from a stable production of lithium salt and a projected increase in lithium prices[31] - The automotive sealing strip market is seeing a shift towards high-value products, with the penetration rate of frameless door designs expected to rise significantly in 2025[26]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the second quarter, zinc prices are expected to fluctuate. At the beginning of the quarter, prices will be relatively weak due to macro - negative factors and high inventory levels. Towards the end of the quarter, prices are expected to strengthen with the reduction of imported ore volume and cost support from energy disturbances [1]. - The core narrative of the overseas macro - market in the first quarter of 2026 has shifted to a stagflation trading theme, which will directly affect the price of zinc and other industrial products [8]. - The supply side is facing challenges such as reduced overseas zinc ore increments and potential disruptions in transportation, while the demand side shows a delayed recovery, with different downstream industries having different impacts on zinc consumption [1][28][59]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Chapter 1: Viewpoint Summary - Price trend: Zinc prices will fluctuate in the second quarter. At the beginning, they will be weak due to macro - negative factors and high inventory, and strengthen at the end with reduced imports and cost support [1]. - Macro: At the beginning of the quarter, the war - induced systemic risk is the main trading theme. If the war ends quickly, energy disturbances may lead to a higher price center, and commodities may strengthen under stagflation trading [1]. - Supply side: TC remained stable in the first quarter. There may be a shortage of imported ore for domestic enterprises, and import TC has room to decline. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted the transportation of some zinc concentrates [1]. - Demand side: Downstream demand is significantly delayed, but terminal consumption shows strong resilience after the Two Sessions. Demand is expected to recover slowly in the second quarter, and attention should be paid to the turning point of social inventory [1]. - Forecast range: The core fluctuation range of the SHFE Shanghai zinc main contract in the second quarter of 2026 is expected to be 22,000 - 25,000 yuan/ton, and that of LME zinc is 3000 - 3450 US dollars/ton [1]. 3.2 Chapter 2: Market Review - In the first quarter, zinc prices in the non - ferrous metals sector were relatively weak but still followed the overall volatility increase. The prices of SHFE zinc and LME zinc showed an inverted V - shaped trend of rising at the beginning, oscillating during the holiday, and falling after the holiday. Macro - sentiment disturbances and continuous shortages of ore supply were the two core factors [4]. 3.3 Chapter 3: Macro - economic Factors - **Crude oil price increase**: Since March 2026, international crude oil prices have skyrocketed. By March 27, the closing price of the Brent crude oil main contract reached 106.29 US dollars/barrel, with a cumulative increase of over 36% from early March. Geopolitical conflicts and long - term production cuts are the main reasons for the price increase [9][12]. - **Stagflation trading**: The sharp increase in oil prices has led to inflation and suppressed economic growth, triggering stagflation trading. The inflation data is expected to rise, and economic growth is under pressure [13][16]. - **Monetary policy**: The Fed's monetary policy has shifted from an expected continuous interest rate cut to a more hawkish stance, with the possibility of restarting interest rate hikes [23]. - **Key variables**: The core contradiction in the overseas macro - environment is the persistence of the crude oil supply shock caused by the Middle East geopolitical conflict. Key variables to watch include the development of geopolitical conflicts, US inflation data from March to April, and the economic growth and employment market [25]. 3.4 Chapter 4: Supply Side - **Zinc concentrate**: In 2025, global zinc mine production was 12.57 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.40%. In 2026, the growth rate of global zinc concentrate production is expected to narrow. Overseas zinc ore production has been affected by many factors, and the expected increment has been continuously revised downwards. Domestic zinc concentrate production is expected to increase by 180,000 tons in 2026 [26][28][33]. - **Smelting end**: In 2025, global zinc ingot production was 13.8225 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.63%. In 2026, domestic smelting is supported by profits, and new production capacity is being put into operation. Overseas smelting is affected by raw materials and energy, and the annual output is expected to increase by 50,000 tons [38][42][52]. 3.5 Chapter 5: Demand Side - **Real estate**: In 2026, the real estate market will still drag down the zinc market, but the drag is limited. The completion data may show a soft - landing feature of a halved decline [61]. - **Infrastructure**: In 2026, infrastructure investment is expected to maintain a medium - to - high - speed growth. The "14th Five - Year Plan" for the power grid will drive zinc consumption, with an expected 2026 investment of 120 billion yuan in UHV projects, which will consume 43,700 - 69,300 tons of zinc [65]. - **Automobile**: In 2026, the growth rate of automobile sales is expected to slow down, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles will exceed 50%. The lightweight trend of new energy vehicles will drag down the growth rate of zinc consumption by about - 0.31% [68]. - **Household appliances**: In 2026, the household appliance industry will maintain a moderate positive growth, but the marginal contribution to zinc consumption is limited [73]. - **Emerging fields**: The growth rate of the photovoltaic industry will decline in 2026, which will drag down zinc consumption. The wind power industry is expected to become a core growth point, with an expected global wind power zinc consumption of about 430,000 tons in 2026, a year - on - year increase of 10.8% [83][87]. - **Downstream demand**: Downstream demand recovery was slow in the first quarter, but it is expected to return in the second quarter [89]. 3.6 Chapter 6: Import - Export and Inventory - **Import - export**: In 2025, China's zinc concentrate imports increased by 30.1% year - on - year. The import structure is affected by geopolitical factors, and the import TC may decline again. The internal - external price ratio may further invert in the second quarter [96][101]. - **Inventory**: In the first quarter, domestic and overseas inventories were polarized. Domestic inventories increased rapidly, while LME inventories remained at a low level. In the future, LME inventories are likely to remain low, and domestic inventories may remain at a high level [103]. 3.7 Chapter 7: Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - **Global zinc concentrate balance**: In 2026, the global zinc concentrate supply is expected to be 12.88 million tons, and the consumption is 12.78 million tons, with a surplus of 100,000 tons [108]. - **Global refined zinc balance**: In 2026, the global refined zinc supply is expected to be 14.03 million tons, and the consumption is 13.9 million tons, with a surplus of 130,000 tons [109]. - **China's zinc concentrate balance**: In 2026, China's zinc concentrate supply is expected to be 7.185 million tons, and the consumption is 7.02 million tons, with a surplus of 325,000 tons [110]. - **China's refined zinc balance**: In 2026, China's refined zinc supply is expected to be 7.2 million tons, and the consumption is 7.12 million tons, with a surplus of 80,000 tons [110].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating and sets a target price of 33.45 CNY [5][11] Core Insights - The growth of Yulong Copper Mine, driven by expansion and resource increase, supports the company's internal growth. The company is transitioning from resource monetization to a growth-oriented platform for copper, gold, and iron [2][11] - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.643 billion CNY in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 24.26% [11] - The report highlights the strategic importance of Yulong Copper Mine, which has a current ore processing capacity of 22.8 million tons per year, set to increase to 30 million tons per year after the approval of the third-phase project in June 2025 [11] - The company has secured exploration rights for the Chating Copper Polymetallic Mine and mining rights for the Golmud Iron Polymetallic Mine, which will enhance resource reserves and support future growth [11] Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 50.026 billion CNY in 2024 to 68.988 billion CNY in 2028, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.0% from 2024 to 2025 [4][14] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to increase from 2.932 billion CNY in 2024 to 7.256 billion CNY in 2028, with significant growth in 2026 at 5.314 billion CNY, a 45.9% increase year-on-year [4][11] - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to rise from 1.23 CNY in 2024 to 3.05 CNY in 2028, reflecting the company's improving profitability [4][13] Market Data - The company's market capitalization is approximately 60.743 billion CNY, with a current share price of 25.49 CNY [6] - The stock has a 52-week price range of 14.44 CNY to 39.55 CNY, indicating significant volatility [6] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 20.72 in 2024 to 8.37 in 2028, suggesting an attractive valuation as earnings grow [4][12]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon has cost support at the bottom and hedging and arbitrage pressure at the top. The spot price is stable, while the futures price has declined due to the failure to reach production control. In the second quarter, it is expected to fluctuate between 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton. [1] Tin - In the short - term, tin prices may show a weak and volatile trend due to the Middle - East situation. In the long - term, there is a bullish logic. If the conflict shows signs of ending, long positions can be established at low prices. [2] Polysilicon - Polysilicon is in a situation of oversupply, and the price is under pressure. It is expected that the price will continue to decline in April. The market is currently inactive, and it is recommended to wait and see. [3] Copper - Copper prices have entered an adjustment phase. The supply - demand fundamentals have slightly improved, and the inventory pressure has weakened. However, the price is still suppressed. In the long - term, there may be opportunities for long - term long positions. [5] Zinc - Zinc is in a cycle of weak supply and demand. The smelting cost supports the zinc price, and there is potential for downstream restocking and export. The price is expected to have limited room for further decline, and opportunities for price rebound can be considered. [7] Nickel - The Indonesian policy and raw material contradictions support the nickel price, but the slow digestion of inventory restricts it. The nickel price is expected to run in a strong range. [9] Aluminum - Alumina is in a state of over - capacity, and the price is expected to fluctuate around the cost line. The price of electrolytic aluminum is supported by the Middle - East situation and is expected to run in the range of 23,500 - 25,500 yuan/ton. [11] Stainless Steel - The cost logic of stainless steel is strong, with support from news and raw materials. The demand is gradually recovering, but the terminal acceptance is still weak. It is expected to maintain a strong and volatile trend. [13] Lithium Carbonate - The supply - side news has boosted the market sentiment. The short - term fundamentals are still resilient. It is expected to run in a strong range. [15] Aluminum Alloy - Casting aluminum alloy is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The price is expected to run in the range of 22,500 - 24,000 yuan/ton, following the trend of electrolytic aluminum. [17] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Spot Price and Basis**: The prices of different grades of industrial silicon remained unchanged on March 27 compared to March 26, while the basis of some varieties increased. [1] - **Monthly Spread**: The main contract price decreased by 1.26% on March 27 compared to March 26, and some monthly spreads changed significantly. [1] - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: National and regional industrial silicon production,开工率, and the production of related downstream products all decreased. The export volume of industrial silicon also decreased. [1] - **Inventory Change**: The inventory in Xinjiang decreased, while the social inventory increased slightly. [1] Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: The prices of SMM 1 tin and Yangtze 1 tin increased, while the SMM 1 tin premium decreased. [2] - **Internal - External Ratio and Import Profit and Loss**: The import loss decreased slightly, and the Shanghai - London ratio remained unchanged. [2] - **Monthly Spread**: Some monthly spreads changed significantly. [2] - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: The import of tin ore, the production of refined tin, and the开工率 of related enterprises changed. The export volume of refined tin decreased, while the export volume of Indonesian refined tin increased. [2] - **Inventory Change**: The inventories in SHEF, social, SHEF warehouse receipts, and LME all decreased. [2] Polysilicon - **Spot Price and Basis**: The average prices of N - type polysilicon remained unchanged, while the basis decreased. [3] - **Futures Price and Monthly Spread**: The main contract price increased, and some monthly spreads changed significantly. [3] - **Fundamental Data (Weekly and Monthly)**: The production of silicon wafers decreased, while the production of polysilicon increased on a weekly basis but decreased on a monthly basis. The import and export volumes of polysilicon and silicon wafers changed. [3] - **Inventory Change**: The inventories of polysilicon and silicon wafers decreased. [3] Copper - **Price and Basis**: The prices of different types of electrolytic copper decreased slightly, and the premium of some varieties changed. The refined - scrap price difference decreased significantly. [5] - **Monthly Spread**: Some monthly spreads changed. [5] - **Fundamental Data**: The production and import volume of electrolytic copper decreased. The import copper concentrate index decreased, and the inventory of copper concentrate in domestic ports increased. The开工率 of electrolytic copper rods increased, while that of recycled copper rods decreased. The inventories in different regions and exchanges changed. [5] Zinc - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot increased, and the premium changed. The import loss increased, and the Shanghai - London ratio decreased. [7] - **Monthly Spread**: Some monthly spreads changed. [7] - **Fundamental Data**: The production and import volume of refined zinc decreased, while the export volume increased. The开工 rates of related industries changed slightly. The social inventory of zinc ingots decreased, and the LME inventory decreased slightly. [7] Nickel - **Price and Basis**: The prices of different types of nickel decreased, and the premium of some varieties decreased. The LME 0 - 3 spread increased slightly, and the futures import profit increased significantly. The Shanghai - London ratio increased. [9] - **Electrowinning Nickel Cost**: The costs of different production methods of electrowinning nickel changed. [9] - **New Energy Material Price**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased, while the prices of other new energy materials remained unchanged. [9] - **Monthly Spread**: Some monthly spreads changed. [9] - **Supply, Demand and Inventory**: The production of refined nickel decreased, while the import volume increased. The inventories in different regions and exchanges changed. [9] Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: The prices of SMM A00 aluminum and Yangtze A00 aluminum increased. The prices of alumina in different regions increased slightly. The import loss of electrolytic aluminum increased, and the Shanghai - London ratio decreased. Some monthly spreads changed. [11] - **Fundamental Data**: The production of alumina and electrolytic aluminum decreased. The开工 rates of related industries changed. The inventories in different regions and exchanges changed. [11] Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The prices of 304/2B stainless steel decreased slightly, and the basis decreased. The prices of some raw materials decreased slightly. [13] - **Monthly Spread**: Some monthly spreads changed. [13] - **Fundamental Data**: The production of 300 - series stainless steel in China increased, while that in Indonesia decreased. The import, export, and net export volumes of stainless steel changed significantly. The inventories of 300 - series stainless steel increased slightly. [13] Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The prices of different types of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide increased. The basis decreased. The prices of lithium ore increased. [15] - **Monthly Spread**: Some monthly spreads changed. [15] - **Fundamental Data**: The production and demand of lithium carbonate decreased. The import volume decreased slightly, and the export volume increased. The capacity increased slightly, and the开工 rate decreased. The total inventory, downstream inventory, and smelter inventory decreased. [15] Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The prices of different types of aluminum alloy increased. The average monthly price of Jiangxi Baotai ADC12 decreased. The refined - scrap price difference increased. Some monthly spreads changed. [17] - **Fundamental Data**: The production of recycled and primary aluminum alloy ingots, and the production of scrap aluminum decreased. The import and export volumes of unforged aluminum alloy ingots decreased. The开工 rates of related industries decreased. The social inventory, factory - finished inventory, and raw material inventory of recycled aluminum alloy decreased. The daily inventories in different regions changed. [17]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. - Arbitrage: Neutral [6] Core Viewpoints - Zinc prices have declined, and there is restocking behavior in the spot market. However, social inventories are increasing and are about to exceed the same period in the past five years. Spot liquidity has improved, but purchases remain cautious. - The TC of domestic and imported zinc ores continues to rise, leading to higher smelting profits and sustained smelting enthusiasm. The supply is expected to increase, and the TC is expected to continue rising. - The pressure on the supply side is increasing, and domestic inventory accumulation is expected to continue even during the peak consumption season. If the peak consumption season fails to meet expectations, zinc prices will face significant pressure and may show a relatively weak trend compared to other non - ferrous metals. Attention should be paid to the impact of overseas inventories [5] Key Data Spot Market - LME zinc spot premium is -$20.74 per ton. - SMM Shanghai zinc spot price decreased by 80 yuan/ton to 22,840 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -65 yuan/ton. - SMM Guangdong zinc spot price decreased by 60 yuan/ton to 22,920 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -30 yuan/ton. - Tianjin zinc spot price decreased by 80 yuan/ton to 22,820 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -85 yuan/ton [2] Futures Market - On March 26, 2026, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 23,010 yuan/ton and closed at 23,070 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 96,062 lots, and the open interest was 103,163 lots. The highest price during the day was 23,105 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,865 yuan/ton [3] Inventory - As of March 26, 2026, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 249,500 tons, a decrease of 5,700 tons from the previous period. - As of March 26, 2026, the LME zinc inventory was 115,650 tons, a decrease of 825 tons from the previous trading day [4]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Gold and Zinc Industry**: The records focus on the gold and zinc markets, highlighting significant changes in consumption patterns and price forecasts for both commodities. Key Insights on Gold Market - **Consumption Shift**: In 2025, China's gold consumption structure underwent a milestone change, with gold bars and coins consumption (501.238 tons, +35.14%) surpassing jewelry consumption (363.836 tons, -31.6%), indicating a shift from consumption to investment dominance in the market [4][1]. - **Price Forecast**: Short-term gold prices are expected to be pressured by delayed interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and a strong dollar, with COMEX gold prices projected to fluctuate between $4,200 and $5,200 per ounce. Long-term support is anticipated from U.S. debt expansion and strong global central bank gold purchases (700-850 tons annually) [6][1]. - **Production and Import Data**: In 2025, domestic gold production was 381.339 tons (+1.09%), and imported gold was 170.681 tons (+8.8%). Total consumption was 950.096 tons (-3.57%) [4][1]. Key Insights on Zinc Market - **Supply and Demand Dynamics**: The global refined zinc market is expected to face a surplus in 2026, with optimistic projections indicating a surplus of 240,000 tons. Domestic refined zinc production is expected to increase by approximately 170,000 tons, primarily from the Wanyang project (+100,000 tons) and the Huoshaoyun project [1][9]. - **Price Trends**: Zinc prices are projected to decline, with expectations for Shanghai zinc prices to range between 21,000 and 25,000 RMB/ton in 2026. In April, prices are expected to remain weak due to high inventory levels and demand pressures [2][19]. - **Downstream Consumption Changes**: The traditional drivers for zinc consumption are weakening, with the share of galvanized consumption expected to drop from 65% to 55% due to declining real estate investment and new construction [1][15]. Additional Important Insights - **Zinc Smelting Challenges**: The zinc smelting sector is facing dual pressures from high overseas electricity prices and low domestic processing fees (TC), with smelting profits heavily reliant on by-product sulfuric acid prices, which have increased by 23.46% year-to-date [1][11]. - **Market Inventory Levels**: As of March 2026, domestic zinc inventories are at 260,000 tons, with significant increases in London zinc inventories as well, indicating a potential oversupply situation [18][19]. - **Geopolitical and Economic Influences**: The geopolitical landscape, particularly in the Middle East, and macroeconomic factors such as U.S. monetary policy are influencing both gold and zinc prices, with expectations of continued volatility in the markets [6][8][19]. This summary encapsulates the critical points from the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the gold and zinc markets, their current dynamics, and future outlooks.

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the content. Core Views of the Report - Copper: Short - term copper prices are in an adjustment phase, but the medium - and long - term supply - demand contradiction logic remains unchanged. The short - term adjustment may provide an opportunity for long - term long positions, but the price is still suppressed before the market risk preference significantly recovers. Pay attention to the changes in the US - Iran conflict and the de - stocking situation in the peak season, with the main focus on the pressure around 97,000 - 98,000 yuan/ton [1]. - Zinc: In the short term, zinc prices are under pressure due to supply improvement, high inventory, and limited macro - level positives. However, the medium - and long - term supply - demand fundamentals are generally stable, and the space for further significant decline may be limited. Pay attention to zinc ore TC, marginal changes in demand, and macro - level guidance, with the main focus on the support around 22,500 yuan/ton [4]. - Tin: The short - term tin price is expected to be weakly volatile. The long - term bullish logic for tin prices still exists, and the short - term adjustment may provide an opportunity for long - term long positions. Pay attention to the changes in the Middle East situation [6]. - Nickel: Macro - level sentiment suppresses the market, but the raw material end contradictions support the price. The inventory shows internal and external differentiation, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a range, with the main reference range of 130,000 - 142,000 yuan/ton [8]. - Stainless Steel: Macro - level sentiment suppresses the non - ferrous sector, while the raw material end is tight and the cost support is strong. The steel mills increase production and the demand gradually recovers. The short - term is expected to maintain an oscillatory adjustment, with the main reference range of 13,800 - 14,500 yuan/ton [10]. - Lithium Carbonate: Currently, macro - level sentiment dominates, and the disk decline continues to expand. The real - world fundamentals of lithium carbonate have resilience, but the terminal data is weak and lacks further momentum. In the short term, the disk is expected to maintain a weakly wide - range adjustment, with the main reference range of 135,000 - 155,000 yuan/ton [14]. - Aluminum: In the short term, aluminum prices will maintain a wide - range oscillation with macro - level sentiment and geopolitical news. The long - term bullish logic still holds. Pay attention to the inventory inflection point and the impact of the Middle East situation on supply, with the main reference range of 23,000 - 25,000 yuan/ton for Shanghai aluminum [15]. - Aluminum Alloy: In the short term, the high raw material cost strongly supports the ADC12 price, but the demand follows up slowly, and the negative feedback effect of high prices gradually appears. The market is expected to continue the high - level oscillatory pattern, with the main contract reference range of 22,000 - 23,500 yuan/ton [17]. - Industrial Silicon: Industrial silicon is expected to oscillate around 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the impact of production control, environmental protection, and cost - end fluctuations [18]. - Polysilicon: Polysilicon is in a cycle of oversupply, and the price will continue to be under pressure. The price may fall towards the lowest cash cost, and it is recommended to wait and see for now [20]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 95,150 yuan/ton, down 3,375 yuan/ton or 3.41% compared to the previous value; the spot premium of 1 electrolytic copper in Guangdong is 80 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan/ton compared to the previous value [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In February, the electrolytic copper production was 1.1424 million tons, down 31,300 tons or 3.13% month - on - month; the electrolytic copper import volume in December was 0.2602 million tons, down 0.0109 million tons or 4.02% month - on - month [1]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22,820 yuan/ton, down 380 yuan/ton or 1.64% compared to the previous value; the import profit and loss is - 2,568 yuan/ton, up 205.36 yuan/ton compared to the previous value [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In February, the refined zinc production was 0.5046 million tons, down 0.056 million tons or 9.99% month - on - month; the refined zinc import volume in December was 0.0088 million tons, down 0.0095 million tons or 51.94% month - on - month [4]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price is 353,400 yuan/ton, down 2,400 yuan/ton or 0.67% compared to the previous value; the spot premium of 1 tin is 2,250 yuan/ton, up 750 yuan/ton or 50% compared to the previous value [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: In February, the tin ore import volume was 17,144 tons, down 657 tons or 3.69% compared to the previous value; the SMM refined tin production was 11,490 tons, down 3,610 tons or 23.91% compared to the previous value [6]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 137,900 yuan/ton, up 3,000 yuan/ton or 2.22% compared to the previous value; the spot premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel is 6,550 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton or 2.96% compared to the previous value [8]. - **Supply and Inventory**: The Chinese refined nickel production is 32,600 tons, down 2,625 tons or 7.45% month - on - month; the refined nickel import volume is 23,394 tons, up 10,723 tons or 84.63% month - on - month [8]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 14,350 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton or 0.70% compared to the previous value; the futures - spot price difference is 455 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton or 19.47% compared to the previous value [10]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel (43 companies) is 1.9008 million tons, up 0.5814 million tons or 44.07% month - on - month; the production of Indonesian 300 - series stainless steel crude steel (Qinglong) is 0.37 million tons, down 0.045 million tons or 10.84% month - on - month [10]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 149,000 yuan/ton, down 3,500 yuan/ton or 2.30% compared to the previous value; the SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 146,000 yuan/ton, down 3,500 yuan/ton or 2.34% compared to the previous value [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: In February, the lithium carbonate production was 83,090 tons, down 14,810 tons or 15.13% month - on - month; the lithium carbonate demand was 111,503 tons, down 13,180 tons or 10.57% month - on - month [14]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price is 24,070 yuan/ton, down 420 yuan/ton or 1.71% compared to the previous value; the electrolytic aluminum import profit and loss is - 3,676 yuan/ton, up 396.1 yuan/ton compared to the previous value [15]. - **Fundamental Data**: In February, the alumina production was 6.6002 million tons, down 0.785 million tons or 10.63% month - on - month; the domestic electrolytic aluminum production was 3.46 million tons, down 0.339 million tons or 8.91% month - on - month [15]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 24,700 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan/ton or 1.20% compared to the previous value; the price difference between Jiangxi Baotai Network ADC12 and A00 aluminum is 30 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton or 133.33% compared to the previous value [17]. - **Fundamental Data**: In February, the regenerated aluminum alloy ingot production was 0.358 million tons, down 0.252 million tons or 41.31% month - on - month; the primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 0.2093 million tons, down 0.094 million tons or 30.99% month - on - month [17]. Industrial Silicon - **Spot Price and Basis**: The price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon is 9,100 yuan/ton, unchanged compared to the previous value; the basis (based on oxygen - passing SI5530) is 645 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan/ton or 20.86% compared to the previous value [18]. - **Fundamental Data**: The national industrial silicon production is 275,700 tons, down 99,800 tons or 26.58% compared to the previous value; the national industrial silicon production start - up rate is 38.02%, down 10.31 percentage points or 21.33% compared to the previous value [18]. Polysilicon - **Spot Price and Basis**: The average price of N - type re - feeding material is 43,500 yuan/kg, down 250 yuan/kg or 0.57% compared to the previous value; the N - type material basis (average price) is 5,735 yuan/ton, up 535 yuan/ton or 10.29% compared to the previous value [20]. - **Fundamental Data**: The polysilicon production is 77,000 tons, down 23,800 tons or 23.61% compared to the previous value; the polysilicon import volume is 0.16 million tons, up 0.06 million tons or 54.97% compared to the previous value [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of Shanghai zinc futures are weak this week. It is recommended that investors mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach and pay attention to the rhythm of inventory reduction [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Processing and Terminal Demand - Galvanized coil: Market sentiment index (weekly) data is presented [4] - Galvanized coil weekly inventory - seasonal data shows inventory levels from 2022 - 2026 [4] - Steel mill galvanized coil weekly production - seasonal data shows production levels from 2022 - 2026 [4] - Galvanized sheet (strip) net export seasonal data from 2021 - 2025 is provided [6] - Die - cast zinc alloy net import seasonal data from 2021 - 2025 is provided [6] - Color - coated sheet (strip) net export seasonal data is presented [8] - Zinc oxide net export seasonal data is presented [8] - Real estate development investment and project progress cumulative year - on - year data is provided [11] - Sales area cumulative year - on - year and unsold area cumulative year - on - year data is provided [13] - 100 large - and medium - sized cities: Transaction land floor area: Weekly value seasonal data from 2022 - 2026 is provided [15] - 30 large - and medium - sized cities' commercial housing transaction volume seasonal data from 2022 - 2026 is provided [15] - Infrastructure fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) completion data is presented [16] 3.2 Supply and Supply - Side Profits - Zinc concentrate monthly import volume seasonal data from 2021 - 2025 is provided [19] - SMM import and domestic zinc concentrate weekly processing fees data from 2022 - 2025 is provided [21] - SMM zinc ingot monthly production seasonal data from 2022 - 2026 is provided [22] - Refined zinc enterprise production profit and processing fees data from 2022 - 2025 is provided [22] - China zinc ingot monthly production + import volume seasonal data from 2021 - 2025 is provided [23] - Zinc concentrate raw material inventory days data from 2022 - 2026 is provided [25] - LME zinc inventory total seasonal data from 2022 - 2026 is provided [25] - SHFE zinc this week's inventory futures seasonal data from 2022 - 2026 is provided [26] - Exchange zinc ingot inventory data from 2022 - 2025 is provided [26] 3.3 Futures and Spot Market Review - Domestic and foreign zinc price trends are presented from 2024 - 2025 [28] - Shanghai zinc main contract trading volume, holding volume and closing price data from 2024 - 2025 are provided [29] - LME zinc closing price vs. US dollar index data from 2022 - 2025 is provided [30] - LME zinc (spot/three - month) and 3 - 15 spread data from 2023 - 2025 is provided [32] - LME zinc (spot/three - month) spread seasonal data is presented [33] - Zinc ingot three - place basis trends data from 2023 - 2025 is provided [34] - Tianjin zinc ingot basis seasonal data is provided [34]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish; Arbitrage: Neutral [5] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The continuous rise in crude oil prices and the downward adjustment of interest - rate cut expectations in the macro - aspect, along with concerns about stagflation, have led to a significant short - term decline in the absolute price of zinc ingots. As downstream consumption recovers, the spot market transaction activity has increased. The import of ore TC is still in a state of slight decline, and the domestic smelting profit is acceptable. The smelting enthusiasm is high, and the ore end supports the zinc price. In the long run, without trading the recession, the overseas consumption is still optimistic [4] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is -$48.17 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 23,200 yuan/ton, a change of -670 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of -95 yuan/ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 23,230 yuan/ton, a change of -680 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -85 yuan/ton; Tianjin zinc spot price is 23,190 yuan/ton, a change of -690 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -105 yuan/ton [1] - **Futures**: On March 18, 2026, the main contract of SHFE zinc opened at 23,650 yuan/ton and closed at 23,325 yuan/ton, a decrease of 545 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 104,120 lots, and the position was 65,911 lots. The highest price was 23,665 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 23,260 yuan/ton [2] - **Inventory**: As of March 18, 2026, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 275,800 tons, a change of 7,000 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 118,025 tons, a change of -350 tons from the previous trading day [3]