锌锭大幅累库， 产业现状偏弱 锌周报 2026/02/28 张世骄（有色金属组） 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03120988 交易咨询号：Z0023261 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估 04 需求分析 02 宏观分析 05 供需库存 03 供给分析 06 价格展望 01 周度评估 周度评估 ◆ 价格回顾：上周五沪锌指数收涨0.54%至24726元/吨，单边交易总持仓18.6万手。截至上周五下午15：00，伦锌3S较前日同期跌 2.5至3380美元/吨，总持仓23.01万手。SMM0#锌锭均价24450元/吨，上海基差-50元/吨，天津基差-70元/吨，广东基差-125元/ 吨，沪粤价差75元/吨。 ◆ 国内结构：上期所锌锭期货库存录得6.97万吨，据钢联数据，2月26日全国主要市场锌锭社会库存为18.04万吨，较2月24日增加 0.61万吨。内盘上海地区基差-50元/吨，连续合约-连一合约价差-180元/吨。海外结构：LME锌锭库存录得9.84万吨，LME锌锭注 销仓单录得0.75万吨。外盘cash-3S合约基差-16.97美元/吨，3-15价差40 ...

来源：源达 投资要点 机构调研热门行业情况 本周（2026/2/23-2026/2/27），一级行业中，按机构被调研总次数从高到低排序，电子、机械设备、汽 车、轻工制造的关注度较高，其中电子、轻工制造的近5天调研机构家数较多。对比春节前一周的调研 情况，本周电子行业关注度提升，此外轻工制造调研机构家数增多，行业可能受益于出口复苏或内需政 策预期。 近30天（2026/1/28-2026/2/27），一级行业中，按机构被调研总次数从高到低排序，机械设备、电子、 医药生物、基础化工的关注度较高，其中电子、机械设备的近一个月调研机构家数较多。 机构调研热门公司情况 本周机构调研情况，按照近5天机构调研次数排名，调研次数较多且机构评级家数大于10家的公司为杰 瑞股份、锡业股份、京东方A；按照近5天机构调研家数排名，调研机构家数较多且机构评级家数大于 10的公司为杰瑞股份、锡业股份、京东方A等。 近30天机构调研情况，按照近30天机构调研次数排名，调研次数较多且机构评级家数大于10的公司为大 族激光、杰瑞股份、杭州银行等；按照近30天机构调研家数排名，调研机构家数较多且机构评级家数大 于10的公司为九号公司-WD、晶科 ...

证券代码：000960 证券简称：锡业股份 债券代码：148721 债券简称：24 锡 KY01 债券代码：148747 债券简称：24 锡 KY02 云南锡业股份有限公司投资者关系活动记录表 编号：2026-001 | 投资者关系活 | □特定对象调研 □分析师会议 | | --- | --- | | 动类别 | □媒体采访 □业绩说明会 | | | □新闻发布会 □路演活动 | | | 现场调研 □其他 ☑ | | 参与单位名称 | 中信建投：覃 静、年亚颂 富国基金：王菀宜 | | 及人员姓名 | 泉果基金：张 诠 汇添富基金：何 彪 | | | 东方引擎投资：吕 晗、杨松波 Point72 基金：杨 轩 | | | 中哲物产：王嫣妮 平安基金：宁特林 | | | 幸福人寿：赵一凡 博时基金：刘 扬 | | | 太平资产：陈天昀 源峰基金：马晓晨 | | 时间 | 年 月 日 2026 2 25 | | 地点 | 云南省昆明市官渡区民航路 471 号公司会议室 | | 上市公司接待 | 董事会秘书：杨佳炜 证代：杨 媛 | | 人员姓名 | | | | 公司与投资机构就 2025 年前三季度公司生产经营 ...

| 集团概况 | | --- | | 董事长致辞 | | 集团简介 | | 发展历程 | | 发展规划 | | 组织架构 | | 子公司名单 | | 领导关怀 | | 联系我们 | 剑 您的位置:首页 >> 集团概况 >> 正文 白银有色集团股份有限公司简介 白银有色集团股份有限公司(以下简称"白银有色")的前身是白银有色金属公司,成立于1954年，是国家"一五"时期 156个重点建设项目之一，新中国重要的有色金属基地。70年来，为中国有色工业和地方经济发展做出了重要贡献。2008年，白 银有色引进中信战略投资实施股份制改造。2017年2月15日，白银有色在上交所成功实现首发整体上市 ，〈股票名称：白银有 色,股票代码:601212)。 齐鲁晚报·齐鲁壹点记者从信用中国获悉，白银有色（601212）集团股份有限公司铜业公司因生产安全事故，被白银市应急管理局罚款50万元。处罚日期 为2026年1月28日。 违法事实：2025年10月20日，白银有色集团股份有限公司铜业公司发生物体打击一般事故，造成1人死亡。白银有色集团股份有限公司铜业公司对此起事 故负有责任。 白银有色（601212.SH）官网显示，白银有色集 ...

| 2026/02/05 | -2419.70 | -2597.13 | 130 | -21 | 107800 | 13275 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026/02/06 | -2443.91 | -2565.15 | 130 | -22 | 107600 | 13475 | | 2026/02/09 | -2829.45 | -3032.40 | 130 | -24 | 106925 | 12475 | | 2026/02/10 | -3144.42 | -3150.64 | 130 | -20 | 106750 | 11825 | | 2026/02/11 | -3574.97 | -3428.10 | 130 | -18 | 105250 | 10350 | | 变化 | -430.55 | -277.46 | 0 | 2 | -1500 | -1475 | 供应端，国产和进口TC加速下滑，系冬储临近国内治炼厂收货所致，预计年后北方矿复产后有所缓解；目前在硫酸、 贵金属等副产品支撑下利润上课。11月，火烧云锌锭正式投产(月产量预计 ...

供应端，国产和进口TC加速下滑，系冬储临近国内治炼厂收货所致，预计年后北方矿复产后有所缓解；目前在硫酸、 贵金属等副产品支撑下利润上课。11月，火烧云锌锭正式投产(月产量预计在8k-1wt)，其他冶炼厂增量有限，当前蓝天 高科、云南振兴、四环锌锗等检修，春节间中小企业五成检修放假，大厂维持最低开工，2月预计环减5-6万吨。需求 端，内需季节性走弱，年底下游谨慎采购，北方部分已放春节假，需求一般;海外，欧洲需求一般，12月出口窗口打开 国内交仓至美国，当前窗口关闭。当前高价下，下游采购为逢低点价，锌锭累库预期下现货开始转贴水，佛山开始有 2000吨左右累库，年底贸易商减少跨区域调货。海外LME低库存有回升，转为贴水。策略方面，锌国内基本面一般， 但长期资本开支投入有限、伊朗锌矿供应存约10万吨扰动下，市场看好锌配置弹性;内外方面，关注反套机会。 有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2026/02/10 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2026/02/03 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The sharp decline in zinc prices this week was due to the cross - variety liquidity shock caused by the weakening of precious metals and the fundamental risks previously highlighted. The demand support in the zinc market in the first quarter is not strong, and there is an overvaluation risk when zinc prices are above 25,000 yuan/ton [3]. - From the perspective of fundamentals and market sentiment, zinc prices may continue to decline weakly before the Spring Festival, but the current price drop may help build momentum for the peak season market after the festival [3]. - In terms of fundamentals, short - term zinc supply continues to be marginally loose. The arrival volume of domestic zinc ore in January was high, and port inventories reached a three - month high. Some domestic smelters have sufficient raw material inventories, and the planned zinc ingot production in February is expected to decrease by 52,000 - 57,000 tons month - on - month [3]. - On the downstream side, the decline in prices has marginally improved the willingness to purchase, but the procurement intensity of leading enterprises has not met market expectations. Downstream enterprises have entered the seasonal shutdown cycle for the Spring Festival, and the weighted operating rate has returned to the historical seasonal level. It is predicted that the peak inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival will be about 210,000 tons, and the inventory will start to decline rapidly in late March [3]. - In terms of price, the current profit margin of smelters provides cost support at around 23,000 yuan/ton [3]. - In terms of the internal - external price ratio, it is expected that the structure of weak domestic and strong external markets will continue in the first quarter. The uncertainty of European natural gas prices has postponed the expectation of overseas smelter复产, and some mines have lowered their production plans in Q4 2025, which provides continuous support for the external market. There is also a possibility that the zinc ingot export window may open again [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Views - The decline in zinc prices was due to precious metal weakness and fundamental risks. Before the Spring Festival, zinc prices may continue to decline, but it may benefit the post - festival market. The short - term supply is loose, and downstream demand is affected by the Spring Festival shutdown. The expected peak inventory during the Spring Festival is about 210,000 tons, and the inventory will start to decline in late March. The cost support is around 23,000 yuan/ton, and the internal - external price ratio may maintain a weak domestic and strong external structure [3]. 3.2 Historical Spring Festival Data - The relationship between inventory reduction time and zinc price trends is not significant, and it mainly depends on long - term supply - demand logic. Zinc prices mostly decline during the Spring Festival. Historically, the first quarter is often at a relatively high price level, and the sharp decline in pre - festival zinc prices this year may improve downstream purchasing willingness and increase the probability of rapid post - festival inventory reduction [4]. 3.3 Monthly Balance Sheet - It is estimated that the zinc ingot production in January 2026 will be about 532,000 tons, and there will be a small - scale maintenance in February, with a planned month - on - month decrease of 52,000 tons. In terms of imports and exports, the zinc ingot export volume increased significantly in November and December 2025. In 2026, a low import volume is expected. It is predicted that the peak inventory of domestic zinc ingot social inventory during the Spring Festival will reach 210,000 tons, and the inventory will start to decline rapidly from March to April [5]. 3.4 Main Industry News - Antamina's 2026 production guidance was further reduced by 70,000 metal tons. MMG's zinc ore production in Q4 2025 increased by 2% year - on - year. Glencore's 2025 zinc production increased by 7% year - on - year, and its 2026 production guidance is 700,000 - 740,000 tons. Xinjiang Huoshaoyun Lead - Zinc Mine announced a public tender for the sale of 50,000 tons of lead - zinc ore [7]. 3.5 Zinc Concentrate Production and Processing Fees - In December 2025, domestic zinc concentrate production was 287,800 metal tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.58% and a year - on - year increase of 5.85%. The cumulative production from January to December was 3.657 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 1.21%. The production in January 2026 is expected to be 292,600 tons. The domestic zinc concentrate TC has stopped falling and stabilized since late December, with an average of 1,500 yuan/metal ton this week. The import zinc concentrate processing fee index is 25.5 US dollars/dry ton, a week - on - week decrease of 4.25 US dollars/dry ton, and the import profit of zinc ore has dropped to a small loss [10]. 3.6 Zinc Concentrate Import - In December 2025, the import volume of zinc ore and concentrates was 462,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.87% and a year - on - year increase of 1.15%. The cumulative import volume from January to December was 5.3305 million physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 30.1%. The main import sources are Peru, Australia, and South Africa. Due to the arrival cycle, the import volume in December decreased, but it is expected to increase significantly in January. As of February 4, 2026, the import profit and loss of zinc concentrate was - 64 yuan/ton, and the zinc ore import window has been closed since January 26 [14]. 3.7 Zinc Concentrate Port Inventory - As of January 29, the weekly inventory of seven major ports was 377,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 81,000 tons, reaching a three - month high. The arrival volume of zinc concentrate decreased significantly in December, but it increased again in early January after the import window opened in late December [18]. 3.8 Zinc Smelter Production - In January 2026, SMM's refined zinc production in China increased by 8,500 tons month - on - month to 560,600 tons, slightly lower than the initial expectation. The raw material inventory days of domestic smelters in January increased by 1.4 days to 23.7 days. Although the processing fee has only stopped falling and remains at a low level since December, the significant increase in zinc prices in January has repaired the smelter's profit. It is expected that the domestic zinc ingot production in February will decrease by 52,000 - 57,000 tons month - on - month, and the production level is basically the same as that in January after excluding the difference in the number of days in the month. The actual demand will be the key to maintaining the smelter's profit, which needs to be verified during the post - Spring Festival peak season [24]. 3.9 Refined Zinc Import - In December 2025, China imported 8,700 tons of refined zinc and exported 27,200 tons, with a net export of 18,500 tons. The main import countries are Kazakhstan and Iran, and the main export destinations are Taiwan, China, Singapore, and Hong Kong. The domestic zinc ingot spot export window has been closed since mid - December, and the import loss has expanded as of February 5. It is expected that the pattern of tight external and loose internal markets will continue in the first half of 2026, and there is a possibility that the zinc ingot export window may open again [27]. 3.10 Downstream Zinc Processing - The weighted operating rate of domestic zinc downstream primary processing enterprises this week was 39.52%, a week - on - week decrease of 7.16 percentage points, returning to the historical seasonal level. The average holiday days of downstream enterprises are 22 days, an increase of 1 day year - on - year. All enterprises will resume work from late February to early March [29]. - The operating rate of galvanizing enterprises on February 5 was 38.6%, a week - on - week decrease of 7.59 percentage points. The raw material inventory increased slightly, and the finished product inventory decreased. The average holiday days of 34 galvanizing sample enterprises are 20 days, an increase of 1 day year - on - year, and they will resume production from late February to early March [31]. - The operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises on February 5 was 42.42%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.95 percentage points. The raw material inventory decreased, and the finished product inventory increased. The average holiday days of 20 die - casting zinc alloy sample enterprises are 23.1 days, an increase of 1.1 days year - on - year, and they will resume work around the eighth day of the first lunar month or the Lantern Festival [39]. - The operating rate of zinc oxide enterprises on February 5 was 50.37%, a week - on - week decrease of 8.15 percentage points. The raw material inventory decreased to the historical low level, and the finished product inventory increased to the historical high level. The industry shows obvious differentiation in holiday arrangements, and the downstream orders also show structural differences [45]. 3.11 Domestic Inventory - As of January 30, the total inventory of refined zinc in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 65,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7,997 tons. As of February 5, the SMM seven - region zinc ingot social inventory was 133,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 16,700 tons. It is expected that the domestic market will enter the seasonal inventory accumulation period during the Spring Festival, with a peak inventory of about 210,000 tons, and the inventory will start to decline in late March [52]. 3.12 LME Inventory - LME inventory has been increasing in Singapore, Hong Kong, and Kaohsiung warehouses since late October. It reached a recent peak of 112,300 tons on January 19 and then continued to decline slightly. As of February 5, the LME inventory was 107,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,950 tons. The LME cancellation warrant ratio rose to a three - month high, with 13,275 tons of cancelled warrants. The global visible inventory this week was 234,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9,200 tons, showing a seasonal inventory accumulation trend [55]. 3.13 Structure & Arbitrage - Since late January, the domestic spot price has been at a slight discount to the Shanghai zinc main contract. On Thursday this week, the average price in Shanghai was at a discount of 30 yuan/ton to the main 2603 contract, a narrowing of 25 yuan/ton compared with last week. The Contango structure of Shanghai zinc has significantly converged. It is recommended to pay attention to the 4 - 7 inter - period positive arbitrage opportunity [59]. - The outer market has returned to the Contango structure since mid - December. As of February 5, the LME zinc 0 - 3 spread was at a discount of 20.75 US dollars/ton, and the discount range is narrowing. In the case of continuous inventory reduction overseas, the LME market shows an abnormal convex structure, and a positive arbitrage strategy can be considered [62]. - The CashReport and WarrantBandingReport show that the market concentration has increased slightly recently, and there is one position with a 30 - 39% warrant holding [63].

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Baiyin Nonferrous Metals has seen a stock price increase of 5.1%, reaching 10.09 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 1.262 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 1.74%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 74.714 billion yuan [1] - Baiyin Nonferrous Metals Group Co., Ltd. is located in Baiyin District, Gansu Province, and was established on July 6, 2007, with its listing date on February 15, 2017. The company is primarily engaged in the mining, smelting, processing, and trading of various non-ferrous metals including copper, lead, zinc, gold, and silver [1] - The main business revenue composition of Baiyin Nonferrous Metals includes: cathode copper 47.65%, gold 18.67%, zinc ingots 7.39%, copper rods 6.90%, and other products contributing to the remaining percentages [1] Group 2 - From the perspective of the top ten circulating shareholders of Baiyin Nonferrous Metals, a fund under Yongying Fund ranks as a major shareholder. The Gold Stock ETF (517520) entered the top ten circulating shareholders in the third quarter, holding 34.0831 million shares, which accounts for 0.46% of the circulating shares, with an estimated floating profit of approximately 16.7007 million yuan [2] - The Gold Stock ETF (517520) was established on October 24, 2023, with a latest scale of 12.55 billion yuan. Year-to-date returns are 22.01%, ranking 13th out of 5579 in its category; over the past year, returns are 109.32%, ranking 24th out of 4289; and since inception, returns are 150.26% [2] Group 3 - The fund manager of the Gold Stock ETF (517520) is Liu Tingyu, who has a cumulative tenure of 2 years and 181 days. The total asset scale of the fund is 28.048 billion yuan, with the best fund return during the tenure being 186.44% and the worst being 1.32% [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, before and after the Spring Festival, the non - ferrous metal market showed a differentiated pattern. Macro factors dominated the price direction of non - ferrous metals, while the differences in the fundamentals of each variety led to the differentiation of inventory and consumption performance. The post - festival resumption of work rhythm would be the key variable [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Copper - **Pricing and Supply - side Situation**: The pricing of copper is more inclined to the framework of "macro - led direction, supply rigidity provides bottom support". The short - term upward movement of copper prices is often driven by macro factors, and the mid - term support comes from the "rigidity" of the supply side. In January 2026, the copper mine supply was tight, and the spot TC continued to decline, reaching a record low of - 49.84 US dollars per dry ton at the end of the month [12]. - **Refining and Supply**: Near the Spring Festival, the refined copper smelting showed the characteristics of tight raw materials, stable production, and limited impact of maintenance. Although the spot TC of copper concentrate continued to decline, the supply of recycled copper and waste anode plates was loose, supporting the high - level production of smelters. The estimated impact of smelter maintenance on refined copper production in January was about 20,000 tons. It is expected that the Yangshan copper premium will fluctuate within a narrow range, and the net import volume of refined copper will remain relatively stable [16]. - **Downstream Processing**: During the approach of the Spring Festival, the copper processing industry showed a co - existence of seasonal stocking demand and the inhibitory effect of high prices. The starting rate of refined copper rods recovered from 47.82% at the beginning of the month to 69.54% at the end of the month. The finished product inventory increased by 3.91% month - on - month, indicating that the actual digestion ability of the terminal market was still insufficient. The starting rate of copper cables increased slightly at the end of the year, with State Grid orders as the core support. The enameled wire sector was relatively strong, with the starting rate maintained at 79% - 83% [17]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of February 5, 2026, the copper social inventory had reached 335,800 tons, and the pre - festival inventory was at a relatively high level. If the subsequent arrival increases, the downstream resumption of work is slow, or the spot maintains a discount pattern, the peak of inventory accumulation may further rise; otherwise, the window for the decline of high inventory after the festival may appear earlier [18][19]. Lead - **Supply - side Situation**: Before the Spring Festival, the lead concentrate market was in a pattern of tight supply and rising costs. The processing fees were at a low level, and the production cost of smelting enterprises increased. In February, the supply and demand of the lead concentrate industry would enter a weak stage. After the festival, the supply - tight pattern of the lead concentrate market would intensify, and the processing fees would likely continue to run at a low level [20][22]. - **Consumption - side Situation**: The lead market showed the characteristic of "even weaker in the off - season". The consumer market of electric bicycle batteries was weak, and the inventory of dealers was high. The export orders of automobile batteries decreased. The weekly starting rate of lead - battery enterprises dropped to about 69% and continued to decline. After the festival, the resumption of work rhythm would be the key variable, and the actual restocking demand of the downstream would be gradually released after the Lantern Festival [22][23]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of February 5, 2026, the lead ingot social inventory had reached 40,400 tons, and the inventory accumulation started earlier than in previous years. If the subsequent lead concentrate arrival increases, the resumption of work of lead - battery enterprises after the festival is slow, or the spot discount pattern continues, the peak of inventory accumulation may further rise; otherwise, the window for the decline of high inventory after the festival may appear earlier [28][29]. Aluminum - **Price and Market Situation**: After New Year's Day, the price of Shanghai Aluminum's main contract rose by 16%, but the price transmission was blocked, and the downstream consumption was severely suppressed. The spot discount of aluminum ingots widened rapidly, and the aluminum rod entered a negative processing fee. The production of aluminum rods and aluminum sheets and foils decreased significantly [30][32]. - **Inventory Situation**: From December 18, 2025, to early February, the inventory accumulation of aluminum ingots had reached 239,000 tons. It is expected that the peak of inventory accumulation this year may reach 1.4 million tons, and if the aluminum price remains high, the inventory accumulation may reach 1.5 million tons [40]. Zinc - **Price and Market Performance**: After New Year's Day, the zinc ingot price rose by 15%. Although it was in the consumption off - season, the downstream processing enterprises were less sensitive to the absolute price of zinc, and the rigid demand for procurement still existed. The starting rate of downstream consumption remained strong and resilient until the end of January, and entered the off - season in February, which was in line with the seasonal performance in previous years [43]. - **Inventory Situation**: In 2026, the inventory accumulation of zinc started in February, about 15 days before the Chinese New Year, which was not much different from previous years. It is expected that the peak of inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival this year will be less than 250,000 tons, close to 200,000 tons [43][46]. - **Supply - side and Valuation**: The current smelting loss of zinc is at a historical high level. Although the by - product income is high, the comprehensive smelting profit is still partially in a loss state. The zinc price valuation is not high, and there is still a risk of a short squeeze if the inventory is quickly depleted after the festival [54]. Operation Suggestions - For copper, pay attention to the post - festival resumption of work progress and inventory depletion rhythm, and lay out long positions on dips [5]. - For aluminum, be vigilant against high - inventory pressure, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies [5]. - For lead, pay attention to the release of restocking demand after the Lantern Festival, and mainly conduct range operations for the time being [5]. - For zinc, the smelting loss supports the price, it is recommended to go long on dips, and pay attention to the risk of a short squeeze [5].

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - Unilateral: Neutral [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The downstream is entering the holiday period, with the operating rate continuously declining. Even though zinc prices have fallen, downstream buyers are still mainly adopting a wait - and - see attitude. The seasonal off - season this year is in sync with previous years, and the previous increase in absolute prices did not have a negative impact on downstream consumption. Social inventories are starting the initial stage of accumulation, with the expected peak of inventory accumulation at 20 - 250,000 tons. The import TC of ore continues to decline, the import window is closed, and it is difficult for the import TC to rise before the new Benchmark is signed. Although the prices of sulfuric acid and by - products are rising, integrated smelting still faces partial losses. There is no obvious pressure on the supply of zinc ingots falling short of expectations, and there is still long - term optimism about consumption and macro factors [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data Spot - LME zinc spot premium is -$22.23 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price decreased by 320 yuan per ton to 24,580 yuan per ton, with a spot premium of - 35 yuan per ton. The SMM Guangdong zinc spot price decreased by 340 yuan per ton to 24,560 yuan per ton, with a spot premium of - 55 yuan per ton. The Tianjin zinc spot price decreased by 320 yuan per ton to 24,530 yuan per ton, with a spot premium of - 85 yuan per ton [1] Futures - On February 5, 2026, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 24,785 yuan per ton, closed at 24,395 yuan per ton, down 440 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 196,623 lots, and the position was 70,531 lots. The highest intraday price reached 24,980 yuan per ton, and the lowest was 24,390 yuan per ton [2] Inventory - As of February 5, 2026, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 133,900 tons, an increase of 82,000 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, the LME zinc inventory was 107,800 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - The downstream is in the holiday period with falling operating rates. Social inventories are starting to accumulate, and the expected peak is 20 - 250,000 tons. The import TC of ore is on a downward trend, the import window is closed, and it is difficult for the import TC to rise before the new Benchmark is signed. Integrated smelting has partial losses, and there is no obvious pressure on supply falling short of expectations. Long - term optimism remains for consumption and macro factors [4] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral. Arbitrage: Neutral [5]