热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 卓创资讯分析师 桑潇 1-5月份，特朗普关税引发国际贸易争端加重宏观经济担忧，欧佩克+政策落地且增速快于预期加重产业 过剩忧虑，欧美斡旋东欧和谈令地缘溢价适度回吐，利空消息叠加，原油价格跌势明显，重心不断下 移，欧美油价实现了80美元/桶到60美元/桶的转变。 三季度，在宏观压力持续与产业过剩预期的利空背景下，国际贸易争端降级、美国夏季石油需求稳健以 及地缘局势反复等对油市形成支撑，多空力量抗衡，原油价格横盘整理为主、运行相对稳健，主流波动 区间为60-75美元/桶。 6月份，中东地缘局势再度扰动，原油价格急涨急跌，主流波动区间重新拉宽至60-80美元/桶，欧美原 油高低价差均超过10美元/桶。 市场关注点从地缘局势转向宏观压力与产业过剩，12月11日-16日原油价格四日连跌，欧美原油期货价 格分别累跌3.29美元/桶、3.19美元/桶，跌幅分别达到5.29%、5.46%，截至12月16日，欧美原油期货价 格分别以58.92美元/桶、55.27美元/桶的价位，刷新2021年3月以来的近五年价格新低。结合月度行情来 看，12月上旬原油价格走势僵持 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic non-ferrous metal market showed mixed performance on August 22, with zinc futures experiencing slight declines amid macroeconomic pressures and supply-demand dynamics [1] Macroeconomic Factors - The preliminary manufacturing PMI in the U.S. for August reached 53.3, unexpectedly hitting a three-year high, indicating increased inflationary pressures [1] - The labor market is showing signs of cooling, with initial jobless claims rising by 11,000 last week, which has influenced market expectations regarding interest rate cuts [1] - Comments from three regional Federal Reserve presidents have dampened expectations for a rate cut in September, leading to a stronger dollar and putting pressure on zinc prices [1] Supply Dynamics - Supply remains relatively ample, with some zinc smelting plants increasing production capacity [1] - Domestic zinc ingot supply continues to grow, contributing to the overall supply situation [1] Demand Dynamics - The downstream market is exhibiting significant seasonal weakness, with initial consumption sectors operating at low capacity despite supportive policies [1] - Short-term demand remains weak, making it difficult to offset the overall market conditions [1] Market Outlook - Overseas registered zinc ingot warehouse receipts have hit a new low for 2024, although the pace of decline has slowed [1] - The backwardation in the London Metal Exchange (LME) market is showing signs of easing, but the medium-term outlook suggests continued oversupply in the industry [1] - There remains a substantial downside risk for zinc prices moving forward [1]