》查看更多金属库存信息 | 金屋 | 阵存 | 増減 变动 | | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | 139475 | 11 +275 ↑ +0.20% | | 铝 | 508600 | 1 +2,200 1 +0.43% | | 锌 | 38250 | 0 - 0.00% | | 煌 | 236892 | 1 +4,260 1 +1.83% | | 铝 | 237450 | 1 +1.375 ↑ +0.58% | | 锡 | 2390 | - -115 J -4.59% | | 铝合金 | 1500 | 0 - 0.00% | | LME库存 | | --- | | 彩喜 | 廟 | 注册仓单 | 变动 | 注销仓单 | | 变动 | | 汗镜异比 下日异比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | 139475 | 131050 | -0.02% | 8425 | T | +3.69% | 6.04% | 5.84% | | 品 | 508600 | 403475 | T +1.18% | 105125 | ...

数据宝统计，截至10:37，锡业股份成交额16.42亿元，创2025年3月18日以来新高。最新股价上涨 8.90%，换手率4.03%。 据天眼查APP显示，云南锡业股份有限公司成立于1998年11月23日，注册资本164580.1952万人民币。 （数据宝） （文章来源：证券时报网） ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Amid the expansion of QDII fund scale and the increase in the number of Southbound Connect investors, the demand and allocation ratio of overseas bond assets by Chinese - funded institutions will rise, and Japanese US - dollar bonds may have high allocation value [22]. - There is a 'long - holiday market' pattern in the bond market this year. Given the large - scale adjustment of yields and a favorable slope, the market during the last two trading days before the National Day holiday may be positive [22]. - Favorable cyclical factors of emerging from low inflation and structural institutional designs such as reducing the savings rate, A - share volatility, attracting long - term funds into the market, and increasing the dividend payout ratio will improve the long - term return of A - shares relative to bonds [23]. - The US bond market is large - scale and mature. However, risks in US municipal bonds should be noted due to the possibility of local government bankruptcy [23]. - The cost - performance of chasing pan - technology stocks in the stock market is decreasing. It is recommended to shift to mid - cap stocks and deploy traditional sectors with low valuations and policy expectations and non - banking sectors. Convertible bonds still have room for performance [23]. - The yield spread has reached a long - cycle bottom. With the end of debt - resolution policies, risks may be re - priced [24]. 3. Summary of Different Sections 3.1 Macro Data Overview - In Q2 2025, GDP at constant prices increased by 5.2% year - on - year, slightly lower than the previous quarter's 5.4% but higher than the 4.7% of the same period last year [1]. - In August 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up from 49.3% in the previous month and 49.1% in the same period last year; the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 50.3%, slightly higher than the previous month's 50.1% and the same as the same period last year [1]. - In August 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of M0, M1, and M2 were 11.7%, 6.0%, and 8.8% respectively. New RMB loans in financial institutions reached 590 billion yuan [1]. - In August 2025, CPI decreased by 0.4% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 2.9% year - on - year [1]. - In August 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 0.5%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 4.64% [1]. - In August 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of export and import values were 4.4% and 1.3% respectively [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - The 20th Fourth Plenary Session of the CPC Central Committee will be held from October 20th to 23rd, emphasizing high - quality development during the '15th Five - Year Plan' period [2]. - The new policy - based financial instruments worth 500 billion yuan can leverage about 6 trillion yuan in investment [2]. - The PBC's Monetary Policy Committee will maintain the stability of the capital market. The A - share market has shown a positive trend this year [3]. - China's water conservancy infrastructure construction has made new progress. The investment in water conservancy construction is expected to exceed 5.4 trillion yuan during the '14th Five - Year Plan' period, 1.6 times that of the '13th Five - Year Plan' [3]. - The US has introduced export control rules, and China firmly opposes this and will safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese enterprises [4]. 3.2.2 Metals - International precious metal futures generally rose. Gold prices hit a record high. London base metals mostly increased. The eight - department plan for the non - ferrous metal industry will support the demand for base metals in the long term [5]. - Bank of America raised its copper price forecasts for 2026 and 2027 [5]. - As of September 26th, the inventory of some metals on the London Metal Exchange changed, with tin and zinc inventories decreasing, nickel and aluminum inventories changing, and copper and lead inventories hitting new lows [5]. - As of September 29th, the position of SPDR Gold Trust increased by 0.60% [6]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - Beijing Iron Ore Trading Center launched the 'Iron Ore Port Spot Price Index' to challenge the international pricing system [7]. - After the Trump administration's policies, some US coal mining companies' stock prices rose [8]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - OPEC + may increase oil production again in November, and a meeting will be held on October 5th to discuss the increase [9]. - TotalEnergies' CEO said that if the EU bans Russian LNG imports, it can be shipped to Turkey or India. The company expects gas demand to grow by 6% - 7% in the next few years [9]. - Crude oil from the Iraqi Kurdistan region is flowing into Turkey's Ceyhan Port at a rate of 150,000 - 160,000 barrels per day [9]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - Chinese customers have reduced purchases of US soybeans, and South American soybeans are replacing US soybeans in the Chinese market [10]. - The US Department of Agriculture released data on the export inspection volumes of soybeans, wheat, and corn [10]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On September 29th, the central bank conducted 288.6 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 48.1 billion yuan [12]. 3.3.2 Important News - The 20th Fourth Plenary Session of the CPC Central Committee will be held from October 20th to 23rd, emphasizing high - quality development during the '15th Five - Year Plan' period [13]. - The new policy - based financial instruments worth 500 billion yuan can leverage about 6 trillion yuan in investment [13]. - In August, local government bonds worth 980.1 billion yuan were issued. From January to August, the total issuance was 7.6838 trillion yuan [14]. - From January to August, the operating income of state - owned enterprises was 53.96 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 0.2%; the total profit was 2.79 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year decrease of 2.7% [14]. - Shanghai issued a document to promote the high - quality development of free - trade offshore bonds [15]. - The US and Japan have introduced export control measures, and China firmly opposes these and will safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese enterprises [15]. - Banks and wealth management subsidiaries are promoting holiday - themed financial products, but investors need to be aware of risks [15]. - The stock - bond constant ETF is expected to be launched this year [16]. - As of the end of June 2025, China's banking industry's external financial assets, liabilities, and net assets were 1.7721 trillion US dollars, 1.5377 trillion US dollars, and 234.4 billion US dollars respectively [16]. - Some bond - related events include defaults, asset seizures, mergers, and judicial auctions [16]. - Some overseas credit ratings were confirmed, adjusted, or revoked [17]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The bond market weakened, especially the ultra - long - end bonds. The 30 - year treasury bond yield rose by more than 2bp, and the corresponding futures contract fell by 0.47% [18]. - In the exchange bond market, some bonds rose, and some fell [18]. - The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose by 0.87%, and the Wind Convertible Bond Equal - Weighted Index rose by 1.10% [18]. - On September 29th, most money market interest rates rose, and the performance of inter - bank repurchase rates varied [19]. - European and US bond yields generally fell [20]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose by 143 points, and the central parity rate was raised by 63 points. The US dollar index fell by 0.26%, and most non - US currencies rose [21]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Japanese US - dollar bonds may have high allocation value [22]. - The bond market may have a positive trend during the last two trading days before the National Day holiday [22]. - Long - term A - share returns relative to bonds may improve [23]. - The US bond market has its characteristics, and risks in US municipal bonds should be noted [23]. - Stock and convertible bond investment strategies are recommended [23]. - The bond market is at a crossroads, and the yield spread may face re - pricing [24]. 3.4 Stock Market Highlights - A - shares rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.9%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 2.05%, and the ChiNext Index up 2.74%. The trading volume was 2.18 trillion yuan [27]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 1.89%. Southbound funds had a net sell - off of 16.54 billion Hong Kong dollars [27]. - Over 60% of private equity institutions plan to hold heavy positions during the holiday, and most are optimistic about the post - holiday A - share market, with a preference for technology - related sectors [27]. - The capital market is cracking down on illegal activities such as financial fraud [28]. - The stock - bond constant ETF is expected to be launched this year [28].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the text about the report industry investment rating. Core Views - The stock market's high - flying sectors like AI have shown divergence, and short - term indices face uncertainty due to reduced trading volume, but in the long - run, it's advisable to buy on dips as policy support remains unchanged [4]. - The bond market may improve in the fourth - quarter supply - demand pattern and is likely to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect [7]. - Precious metals are likely to benefit from the Fed's future easing cycle, and it's recommended to buy on dips, especially for silver [9]. - For most metals in the non - ferrous sector, prices are affected by supply - demand fundamentals, trade situations, and Fed policy expectations, with different short - term trends [12][14][17]. - In the black building materials sector, prices are expected to remain weakly oscillating before the Fourth Plenary Session, but may have long - term potential [42]. - In the energy - chemical sector, different products have different trends based on supply - demand, inventory, and policy factors [54][56]. - In the agricultural products sector, different products' prices are influenced by supply, demand, and seasonal factors, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed [79][81]. Summary by Category Macro - Financial Stock Index - **Market News**: The Politburo met to discuss the 15th Five - Year Plan, and the NDRC is promoting a 500 billion yuan policy financial tool [2]. - **Base Ratio**: Different contracts of IF, IC, IM, and IH have specific base ratios [3]. - **Strategy**: After a continuous rise, high - flying sectors have diverged, and short - term indices face uncertainty, but long - term buying on dips is recommended [4]. Treasury Bond - **Market News**: TL, T, TF, and TS contracts had specific price changes on Monday, and relevant policies were announced [5]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 288.6 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 4.81 billion yuan [6]. - **Strategy**: The bond market may oscillate in the fourth quarter, and its performance is related to the stock - bond seesaw effect [7]. Precious Metals - **Market News**: Gold and silver prices in different markets had specific changes, and the US government faces a "shutdown" crisis [8]. - **Strategy**: It's recommended to buy on dips, especially for silver, and use put options for risk hedging during holidays [9]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market News**: LME copper and SHFE copper prices changed, and inventory and premium data were provided [11]. - **Strategy**: Short - term copper prices may continue to oscillate strongly, with potential risks from trade situations [12]. Aluminum - **Market News**: LME aluminum and SHFE aluminum prices changed, and inventory and premium data were provided [13]. - **Strategy**: Aluminum prices have strong support at the bottom, affected by trade situations and Fed policy [14]. Zinc - **Market News**: SHFE zinc and LME zinc prices changed, and inventory and premium data were provided [15]. - **Strategy**: Short - term SHFE zinc is expected to be weakly running [17]. Lead - **Market News**: SHFE lead and LME lead prices changed, and inventory and premium data were provided [18]. - **Strategy**: SHFE lead is expected to show a wide - range oscillating pattern [19]. Nickel - **Market News**: SHFE nickel prices oscillated, and spot and cost data were provided [20]. - **Strategy**: Short - term observation is recommended, and buying on dips can be considered if prices fall enough [21]. Tin - **Market News**: SHFE tin prices oscillated, and supply, demand, and inventory data were provided [22]. - **Strategy**: Short - term tin prices may remain high and oscillate, and observation is recommended [23]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market News**: Carbonate lithium prices changed, and contract and spot data were provided [24]. - **Strategy**: Carbonate lithium is likely to oscillate within a range, and attention should be paid to supply and demand [24]. Alumina - **Market News**: Alumina index prices changed, and base and overseas price data were provided [25]. - **Strategy**: Short - term observation is recommended, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies [27]. Stainless Steel - **Market News**: Stainless steel contract prices changed, and spot and inventory data were provided [28]. - **Strategy**: Stainless steel prices may face downward pressure if supply - demand imbalance worsens [28]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market News**: AD2511 contract prices changed, and inventory and price difference data were provided [29]. - **Strategy**: Cast aluminum alloy futures are expected to be weaker than spot, with support from scrap aluminum prices [30]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market News**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil contract and spot prices changed, and inventory data were provided [32]. - **Strategy**: Steel prices are likely to remain weakly oscillating, and attention should be paid to the Fourth Plenary Session policies [33]. Iron Ore - **Market News**: Iron ore contract prices changed, and spot and base data were provided [34]. - **Strategy**: Short - term iron ore prices may be affected by supply, demand, and inventory after the holiday [35]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market News**: Glass and soda ash contract and spot prices changed, and inventory and position data were provided [36][38]. - **Strategy**: Glass is recommended to be viewed bullishly in the short - term, and soda ash is expected to oscillate [37][39]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market News**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon contract prices changed, and spot and base data were provided [40]. - **Strategy**: Black building materials may first decline and then rise, and long - term buying opportunities may appear after the Fourth Plenary Session [42]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market News**: Industrial silicon and polysilicon contract prices changed, and spot and inventory data were provided [44][47]. - **Strategy**: Industrial silicon may oscillate in the short - term, and polysilicon may decline in the short - term [46][48]. Energy - Chemical Rubber - **Market News**: Rubber prices were affected by factors such as coal prices and expected reserve sales [50]. - **Strategy**: A medium - term bullish view is held, but short - term observation is recommended [54]. Crude Oil - **Market News**: Crude oil and refined oil contract prices changed, and inventory data were provided [55]. - **Strategy**: Short - term long - positions should be stopped, and observation is recommended [56]. Methanol - **Market News**: Methanol prices changed, and base and price difference data were provided [57]. - **Strategy**: Methanol fundamentals have improved marginally, and short - term long - positions can be considered on dips [58]. Urea - **Market News**: Urea prices changed, and base and price difference data were provided [59]. - **Strategy**: Urea is in a low - valuation and weak - driving situation, and long - positions can be considered on dips [60]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market News**: Pure benzene and styrene prices changed, and supply, demand, and inventory data were provided [61]. - **Strategy**: Styrene prices may stop falling during the seasonal peak season [62]. PVC - **Market News**: PVC prices changed, and cost, supply, demand, and inventory data were provided [63]. - **Strategy**: PVC has a poor supply - demand situation, and short - term short - positions can be considered on rallies [64]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market News**: Ethylene glycol prices changed, and supply, demand, and inventory data were provided [65]. - **Strategy**: Ethylene glycol may accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter, and short - positions can be considered on rallies [66]. PTA - **Market News**: PTA prices changed, and supply, demand, and inventory data were provided [67]. - **Strategy**: Short - term observation of PTA is recommended [69]. p - Xylene - **Market News**: p - Xylene prices changed, and supply, demand, and inventory data were provided [70]. - **Strategy**: Short - term observation of p - Xylene is recommended [71]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market News**: PE prices changed, and supply, demand, and inventory data were provided [72]. - **Strategy**: PE prices may oscillate upward [73]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market News**: PP prices changed, and supply, demand, and inventory data were provided [74]. - **Strategy**: PP has a supply - demand imbalance, and short - term no prominent contradictions [76]. Agricultural Products Live Hogs - **Market News**: Hog prices continued to decline, and supply and demand were expected to be stable [78]. - **Strategy**: Short - term hog prices may remain weak, and short - positions on near - month contracts are recommended [79]. Eggs - **Market News**: Egg prices were stable or declined, and supply and demand were in a wait - and - see state [80]. - **Strategy**: Short - term observation of eggs is recommended, and long - positions on far - month contracts can be considered after price declines [81]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market News**: Soybean meal prices were stable, and supply, demand, and inventory data were provided [82]. - **Strategy**: Soybean meal is in a weakly oscillating state, and short - term declines may occur [83]. Oils and Fats - **Market News**: Palm oil export and production data in Malaysia were provided, and domestic oils and fats oscillated [84]. - **Strategy**: Oils and fats may oscillate strongly in the medium - term, and buying on dips can be considered [85]. Sugar - **Market News**: Sugar futures prices oscillated, and spot prices and production forecasts were provided [86]. - **Strategy**: Sugar prices are expected to decline in the long - term, and short - term observation is recommended [87]. Cotton - **Market News**: Cotton futures prices declined, and spot prices and supply, demand, and inventory data were provided [88][89]. - **Strategy**: Cotton prices are affected by multiple factors, and short - term observation is recommended [90].

文 | 对冲研投研究院 编辑 | 杨兰 摘要 宏观方面上周相对平静，金铜双双震荡上行。宏观方面围绕降息的博弈仍然是主基调，黄金继续被市场多配。而铜的上涨更多是因为基本面 因素的驱动，周中自由港宣布了旗下位于印尼的世界级铜矿Grasberg矿难的调查结果和产量更新，结果大超市场预期，铜价对此反应较为强 烈。 核心观点 01 上周金铜偏强运行 贵金属方面，上周 COMEX 黄金上涨 1.89%，白银 上涨 6.92%；沪金2512合约 上涨 3.07%，沪银2512 合约上涨 6.63%。主要工业金属 价格中，COMEX铜、沪铜分别变动+2.89%、+3.28%。 G矿产量评估大超预期，铜价盘面反映强烈 0 2 欢迎加入交易理想国知识星球 宏观方面上周整体较为平静，铜价波动的来源主要由供应端的事件所驱动。周中自由港宣布了旗下位于印尼的世界级铜矿 Grasberg矿难 的调查结果和产量更新，结果大超市场预期。按照最新的产量指引，今年4季度该矿山几乎不会有任何产量，并且影响会持续到明年， 受此影响铜价大幅上行。今年以来接二连三的矿山都发生了比较严重的事故，这使得铜矿干扰不断提升，而铜精矿增量预期则持续下 调，这可能将 ...

Market Overview - A-shares experienced fluctuations with the three major indices adjusting downwards, particularly in the technology sector [1] - The wind power concept stocks surged, with Weili Transmission hitting the daily limit [1] - Agricultural sectors, including planting, forestry, soybeans, and agrochemical products, saw multiple concept themes rise [1] - The automotive sector was active, with Seres reaching a historical high [1] - Luxshare Precision's stock fell by 6.53%, closing at 64.25 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 21.966 billion CNY, maintaining the top position in A-share trading [1] - The overall market turnover was approximately 2.16 trillion CNY, a decrease of 225.7 billion CNY from the previous trading day [1] Hainan Sector Performance - The Hainan sector showed strength, with *ST Shuangcheng hitting the daily limit [3] - The upcoming "National Day + Mid-Autumn Festival" holiday is expected to boost tourism, with over 170 cultural and sports activities planned in Hainan [5] - Travel booking data indicates a 125% increase in pre-bookings for the holiday period, with five-star hotel bookings up by 140% year-on-year [5] - Hainan's tourism department is extending promotional activities and providing financial incentives to attract visitors [5] Nonferrous Metals Sector - The nonferrous metals sector strengthened, with copper, cobalt, and nickel prices rising [6] - Companies like Jingyi Co. and Lida New Materials saw their stocks hit the daily limit [6] - The A-share nonferrous metals sector reported a revenue of 1.82 trillion CNY in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 6.66%, and a net profit of 95.3 billion CNY, up 38.28% [8] - Analysts suggest that the sector is in a "high profitability, low valuation" phase, with potential for valuation increases due to active trading and capital inflows [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The precious metals market is currently experiencing a temporary adjustment due to the divergence among Fed officials, the rebound of the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, and the U.S. dollar index. However, considering the high expectations for future U.S. liquidity easing and the lingering risk of stagflation, precious metals are expected to remain strong overall [2][3]. - The copper market has seen a significant increase in prices due to the Grasberg mine accident, which has changed the long - term supply - demand structure and intensified the tightness of copper ore. Although consumption is weak, if the price breaks through the previous high, it may further rise [5][7]. - The alumina market shows a downward trend in both domestic and foreign spot prices, with a weakening fundamental outlook. The price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range at a low level [10][12]. - The casting aluminum alloy market has a stable and slightly strong alloy ingot spot price due to the start of raw material preparation by some enterprises and the increasing operating rate of die - casting plants [14][15]. - The electrolytic aluminum market is expected to see the price maintain an oscillatory upward trend, driven by the rebound of the non - ferrous metal sector and the consumption resilience shown by the reduction of social inventory [18][23]. - The zinc market may maintain a slightly surplus state in September. The overseas market has some support for zinc prices, but there is a risk of further decline if there is large - scale warehousing at LME [27][29]. - The lead market has a complex situation with both increasing supply and pre - holiday stocking demand from downstream enterprises. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level [32]. - The nickel market is supported by short - term positive news from Indonesia and the Philippines, and the price is expected to be oscillatory and strong [33][34]. - The stainless steel market has increasing production but slow - moving demand. The price is expected to maintain an oscillatory trend [37][38]. - The industrial silicon market is affected by the production schedule of polysilicon in October and market sentiment. It is recommended to participate in long positions [41][42]. - The polysilicon market is facing the pressure of old warehouse receipts cancellation, but with reduced supply and demand, it is recommended to go long and trade in bands [45][46]. - The lithium carbonate market is expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern due to the complex situation of supply and demand and pre - holiday factors [48][49]. - The tin market is restricted by the strong U.S. dollar index, with tight supply at the mine end and weak demand. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level [52][53]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals Market Review - London gold fell 0.72% to $3735.805 per ounce, and London silver fell 0.3% to $43.885 per ounce. The Shanghai gold and silver futures also declined [2]. - The U.S. dollar index rose 0.66% to 97.86, the 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield fell to 4.145%, and the RMB exchange rate against the U.S. dollar fell 0.28% to 7.1315 [2]. Important Information - Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts. The probability of the Fed maintaining the interest rate unchanged in October is 8.1%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 91.9% [2]. Trading Strategy - Adopt a long - only strategy, wait and see for arbitrage, and use collar call options [3]. Copper Market Review - The night - session closing price of SHFE copper 2511 contract rose 3.28% to 82610 yuan per ton, and LME copper rose 3.27% to $10320 per ton [5]. - LME inventory decreased by 200 tons to 144,700 tons, and COMEX inventory decreased by 157 tons to 318,200 tons [5]. Important Information - The Grasberg mine accident will lead to a 35% decline in copper and gold production in 2026 [5]. - AurubisAG's new metal recycling plant in the U.S. has started production, which will reduce U.S. metal imports [6]. Trading Strategy - The price is in a strong upward trend, continue to hold cross - market positive arbitrage, and wait and see for options [8]. Alumina Market Review - The night - session price of the alumina 2601 contract rose 22 yuan to 2916 yuan per ton. Spot prices in various regions declined [10]. Important Information - Guinea's bauxite prices decreased, and 130,000 tons of imported alumina are expected to arrive in October [11]. - In August 2025, China's alumina imports decreased by 25.4% month - on - month and exports decreased by 21.4% month - on - month [12]. Trading Strategy - The price fluctuates in a narrow range at a low level, conduct reverse calendar spread arbitrage, and wait and see for options [12]. Casting Aluminum Alloy Market Review - The night - session price of the casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract rose 80 yuan to 20400 yuan per ton. Spot prices remained stable [14]. Important Information - The new policy affects the recycled aluminum industry, and the social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased [14]. Trading Strategy - The futures price rebounds with the aluminum price, conduct long AD short AL arbitrage, and wait and see for options [16]. Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - The night - session price of SHFE aluminum 2511 contract rose 120 yuan to 20805 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions showed different trends [18]. Important Information - The U.S. implemented a 15% tariff on EU - imported automobiles. The electrolytic aluminum inventory decreased by 0.8 tons, and the Indonesian project is expected to be put into production [18][20][21]. Trading Strategy - The price rebounds with the sector, wait and see for arbitrage and options [24]. Zinc Market Review - The LME zinc price rose 1.14% to $2922.5 per ton, and SHFE zinc 2511 rose 0.37% to 21995 yuan per ton [27]. - The spot market had weak transactions, and the premium had limited upward potential [27]. Important Information - The domestic zinc inventory decreased, and the start - up rate of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises in Guangdong is expected to decline due to the typhoon [28]. Trading Strategy - The price oscillates in a range, pay attention to LME inventory changes, and wait and see for arbitrage and options [29]. Lead Market Review - The LME lead price rose 0.18% to $2002.5 per ton, and SHFE lead 2511 rose 0.29% to 17125 yuan per ton [32]. - The spot price of lead decreased, and the transaction of recycled refined lead was good [32]. Important Information - The lead inventory decreased, and a small - scale recycled lead smelter in South China resumed production [32]. Trading Strategy - The price oscillates at a high level, short lightly at high prices, and wait and see for arbitrage and options [32]. Nickel Market Review - The LME nickel price rose $95 to $15435 per ton, and SHFE nickel rose 1070 yuan to 122750 yuan per ton [33]. - The spot premiums of different types of nickel remained unchanged [34]. Important Information - A Fed official warned against continuous interest rate cuts, and Indonesia sanctioned 25 nickel mining companies [34]. Trading Strategy - The price is oscillatory and strong, wait and see for arbitrage and options [35]. Stainless Steel Market Review - The price of the stainless steel SS2511 contract rose 30 yuan to 12935 yuan per ton, and the index position decreased [37]. - The spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel were stable [37]. Important Information - The stainless steel inventory in Foshan increased, and the U.S. import tariff affected the market [38]. Trading Strategy - The price has a wide - range oscillation, wait and see for arbitrage [39]. Industrial Silicon Market Review - The futures price of industrial silicon rose 0.84% to 9020 yuan per ton, and the spot price remained stable [41]. Important Information - In August, China's industrial silicon exports increased by 18.30% year - on - year [41]. Trading Strategy - Participate in long positions, sell out - of - the - money put options, and no arbitrage strategy [43]. Polysilicon Market Review - The futures price of polysilicon rose 2.41% to 51380 yuan per ton, and the spot price remained stable [45]. Important Information - Oriental Hope's Xinjiang project is under maintenance, which has little impact on overall supply [45]. Trading Strategy - Trade in long - short bands, conduct reverse arbitrage between 2511 and 2512 contracts, and sell out - of - the - money put options [46]. Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The price of the lithium carbonate 2511 contract fell 580 yuan to 72880 yuan per ton, and the spot price remained stable [48]. Important Information - The U.S. government may acquire 10% of the equity of American Lithium, and the U.S. implemented a 15% tariff on EU - imported automobiles [49]. Trading Strategy - The price has a wide - range oscillation, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell straddle options [50]. Tin Market Review - The price of SHFE tin 2510 rose 0.51% to 272950 yuan per ton, and the spot price rose 500 yuan to 271500 yuan per ton [52]. Important Information - The Fed official called for interest rate cuts, OpenAI will expand its data center, and Indonesian tin production is expected to increase [52][53]. Trading Strategy - The price oscillates at a high level, wait and see for options [54].

》查看更多金属库存信息 LME铅库存 | 金屋 | 阵存 | 増減 变动 | | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | 144775 | - -200 J -0.14% | | 品 | 517150 | 1 +3,300 1 +0.64% | | 锌 | 44400 | = -1.375 J -3.00% | | 寝 | 230586 | 1 +132 ↑ +0.06% | | 铝 | 219725 | 1 -250 J -0.11% | | 锡 | 2695 | 1 +120 ↑ +4.66% | | 铝合金 | 1500 | 0 - 0.00% | | LME库存 | | --- | | 彩喜 | 廟 | 注册仓单 | 变动 | 注销仓单 | 变动 | | 汗镜兄妹 下日兄妹 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刨 | 144775 | 133000 | - -0.08% | 11775 | - -0.84% | 8.13% | 8.19% | | 品 | 517150 | 407375 | 1 +1.17% | 10977 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Gold, Silver, Carbonate Lithium, Soybean Oil (medium to long - term), Rapeseed Oil [1] - **Bearish**: Asphalt, PTA, Pure Benzene, Styrene, Caustic Soda, LPG [1] - **Sideways**: Macro - finance (including stocks and bonds), Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Polysilicon, Ribbed Bar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Silicide, Ferrosilicon, Plate, Soda Ash, Coking Coal, Coke, Palm Oil, Soybean Meal, Pulp, Logs, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, BR Rubber, Urea, PP, PVC, Container Shipping to Europe [1] 2. Core Views - The stock index is bullish in the long - term, but the probability of a unilateral upward pattern in the market before the National Day holiday is low, and it is recommended to control positions. The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the upward trend [1]. - Gold and silver prices may be strong in the short - term, but attention should be paid to the increased volatility risk before the National Day holiday [1]. - Copper and aluminum prices are under pressure in the short - term, but are expected to stabilize or have limited downside space due to overseas easing cycles and the arrival of the consumption season [1]. - The supply and demand situation of various industrial and agricultural products is complex, with different price trends affected by factors such as production, inventory, policy, and market sentiment [1]. 3. Summary by Industry Macro - finance - Stocks: Long - term bullish, low probability of unilateral rise before the National Day holiday, recommend controlling positions [1]. - Bonds: Favored by asset shortage and weak economy, but short - term interest rate risk warning from the central bank suppresses the upward trend [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - Gold and Silver: Short - term bullish, but need to be cautious about pre - holiday volatility [1]. - Copper: Pressured in the short - term, but expected to stabilize with overseas easing and domestic demand improvement [1]. - Aluminum: Pressured in the short - term, but limited downside space due to the arrival of the consumption season [1]. - Alumina: Fundamentals are weak, but limited downside space as the price approaches the cost line [1]. - Zinc: Social inventory accumulation pressures the price, and attention should be paid to policy changes [1]. - Nickel: Short - term sideways to slightly bullish, with continuous attention to supply and macro changes [1]. - Stainless Steel: Short - term sideways to slightly bullish, with attention to actual production of steel mills [1]. - Tin: There is an expectation of demand improvement in the peak season, and low - long opportunities can be focused on [1]. - Polysilicon: Supply is recovering, with production reduction expectations and market sentiment influenced by rumors [1]. - Carbonate Lithium: Bullish due to the approaching peak season of new energy vehicles and strong energy storage demand [1]. Ferrous Metals - Ribbed Bar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore: Valuation returns to neutral, industrial driving force is unclear, and macro - driving force is positive [1]. - Manganese Silicide and Ferrosilicon: Short - term fundamentals are not optimistic, with supply recovery, possible demand weakening, and high inventory [1]. - Plate and Soda Ash: Supply surplus pressure exists, and prices are under pressure despite marginal improvement in peak - season demand [1]. - Coking Coal and Coke: After a sharp correction, there is strong bottom support, but the upward space is not open, and the pre - holiday market may be sideways [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: Short - term sideways adjustment, consider going long at the lower end of the sideways range [1]. - Soybean Oil: Bullish in the medium to long - term, with attention to the impact of Sino - US negotiations on the market [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: There is a de - stocking trend, and it is recommended to go long and conduct positive spreads between months [1]. - Cotton: Short - term wide - range sideways, and the market may face pressure with the listing of new cotton in the long - term [1]. - Raw Sugar: Starting to rebound, but limited upward space due to supply surplus, and it is recommended to short at high prices [1]. - Corn: Bearish in the short - term due to increased supply and price pressure from deep - processing enterprises [1]. - Soybean Meal: Sideways, with weak short - term market sentiment, and it is recommended to observe carefully [1]. - Pulp: The bottom range is initially showing, but there is no bullish driving force yet, and attention should be paid to the cancellation volume of warehouse receipts after September delivery [1]. - Logs: Fundamentals have no obvious changes, with falling foreign quotes and firm spot prices, and the futures are sideways [1]. - Live Pigs: Bearish as the supply continues to increase and downstream demand is limited [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil and Fuel Oil: Sideways, affected by factors such as US inventory, OPEC+ production increase, and Fed interest rate cuts [1]. - Asphalt: Bearish, with the falsification of demand expectations and sufficient supply of raw materials [1]. - Shanghai Rubber: Bullish in the short - term due to typhoon influence and reduced inventory [1]. - BR Rubber: Sideways, with attention to the capital side due to factors such as supply and demand and changes in warehouse receipts [1]. - PTA: Bearish, affected by factors such as production recovery, falling oil prices, and PX device maintenance delays [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: Sideways, with a complex situation of supply and demand and the impact of new device production [1]. - Short - fiber: Sideways, affected by factors such as device recovery and changes in market delivery willingness [1]. - Pure Benzene and Styrene: Bearish, with increasing supply and import pressure [1]. - Urea: Sideways, with limited upward space due to insufficient domestic demand and support from anti -内卷 and cost [1]. - PP: Sideways, with weakening support from maintenance and less - than - expected downstream improvement [1]. - PVC: Sideways, with increased supply pressure and more near - month warehouse receipts [1]. - Caustic Soda: Bearish, with unfulfilled peak - season expectations and inventory accumulation [1]. - LPG: Bearish, affected by OPEC production increase, high domestic oil inventory, and weak chemical demand [1]. Others - Container Shipping to Europe: Sideways, with the possibility of a low - level rebound and expected to stop falling and stabilize [1].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report Copper - Short - term drivers are weak, and the main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuated in a narrow range. Macroscopically, if the subsequent inflation and employment data strengthen the interest - rate cut expectation, copper prices are expected to benefit. Fundamentally, it remains in a state of "weak reality + stable expectation". In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction provides bottom support, and the center of copper prices will gradually rise. The short - term is at least in a shock state, with the main reference range of 79,000 - 81,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - Alumina futures prices fluctuated widely at the bottom. The market is in a fundamental pattern of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand", and this pattern is difficult to reverse fundamentally in the short term. It is expected that the short - term main contract will oscillate in the range of 2,850 - 3,150 yuan/ton. For electrolytic aluminum, it is expected that the aluminum price will remain oscillating in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 20,600 - 21,000 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy futures price fluctuated with the aluminum price. The overall supply shortage pattern has not changed fundamentally. It is expected that the short - term spot price will remain firm, the inventory accumulation rate will slow down, and the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum is expected to further converge. The short - term main contract reference operating range is 20,200 - 20,600 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - Since September, Shanghai zinc has been relatively weak in the non - ferrous metal sector due to the expectation of loose supply. In the short term, the price may be driven by the macro - environment to rise, but the upside space is difficult to open under the expectation of loose supply. It is expected to mainly oscillate, with the main reference range of 21,500 - 22,500 yuan/ton [7]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand is weak. Tin prices continue to oscillate at a high level, with the operating range of 265,000 - 285,000 yuan/ton. Follow - up attention should be paid to the import situation of Burmese tin ore [11]. Nickel - The Shanghai nickel market was weak. Macroscopically, there was no more - than - expected positive news after the Fed's interest - rate cut. There is no obvious supply - demand contradiction in the short term, but the inventory reduction rhythm has slowed down. It is expected that the market will oscillate within a range, with the main reference range of 119,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton [13]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market oscillated in a narrow range. The downstream started to replenish goods moderately before the festival, but the market transaction was mainly based on rigid demand. The supply side has certain pressure, and the peak - season demand has not significantly increased. It is expected that the short - term market will adjust through oscillation, with the main operating range of 12,800 - 13,200 yuan/ton [15]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market mainly oscillated. The fundamentals remained in a tight balance. The supply was supplemented by the increase in imports, and the demand was steadily optimistic. It is expected that the short - term market will oscillate and organize, with the main price center of reference in the range of 70,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton [17]. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper was priced at 80,010 yuan/ton, down 0.27% from the previous day. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium was 55 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous day. The refined - scrap price difference was 1,799 yuan/ton, down 3.93% [1]. Fundamental Data - In August, the electrolytic copper production was 1.1715 million tons, down 0.24% month - on - month; the import volume was 264,300 tons, down 10.99% month - on - month [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum was priced at 20,680 yuan/ton, down 0.34% from the previous day. The SMM A00 aluminum premium was - 10 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [3]. Fundamental Data - In August, the alumina production was 7.7382 million tons, up 1.15% month - on - month; the electrolytic aluminum production was 3.7326 million tons, up 0.30% month - on - month [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 was priced at 20,850 yuan/ton, down 0.48% from the previous day. The price difference between scrap and refined aluminum in Foshan increased [5]. Fundamental Data - In August, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 615,000 tons, down 1.60% month - on - month; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 271,000 tons, up 1.88% month - on - month [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot was priced at 21,880 yuan/ton, down 0.32% from the previous day. The import loss was - 3,145 yuan/ton, an improvement of 147.64 yuan/ton from the previous day [7]. Fundamental Data - In August, the refined zinc production was 626,200 tons, up 3.88% month - on - month; the import volume was 25,700 tons, up 43.30% month - on - month [7]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin was priced at 270,700 yuan/ton, down 0.48% from the previous day. The SMM 1 tin premium was 400 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [11]. Fundamental Data - In July, the tin ore import volume was 10,278 tons, down 13.71% month - on - month; the SMM refined tin production was 15,940 tons, up 15.42% month - on - month [11]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel was priced at 121,950 yuan/ton, down 0.61% from the previous day. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium was 2,350 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [13]. Fundamental Data - China's refined nickel production in August was 32,200 tons, up 1.26% month - on - month; the import volume was 17,536 tons, down 8.46% month - on - month [13]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) was 13,100 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The futures - spot price difference was 380 yuan/ton, up 5.56% [15]. Fundamental Data - In August, the production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China was 1.7133 million tons, down 3.83% month - on - month; the import volume was 117,200 tons, up 60.48% month - on - month [15]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,850 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 2,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [17]. Fundamental Data - In August, the lithium carbonate production was 85,240 tons, up 4.55% month - on - month; the demand was 104,023 tons, up 8.25% month - on - month [17].