锌价回落
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锌价回落现货贴水小幅修复
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-12-11 02:47
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - As zinc prices decline, the spot market discount continues to repair slightly. The spread between near - month contracts has become flat. The TC of the mining end continues to decline, and the losses of smelters expand. The raw material inventory of smelters continues to fall, and the procurement enthusiasm remains, so TC is expected to continue to decline. The smelting enthusiasm has significantly declined, and the smelting output has decreased significantly month - on - month, alleviating the supply pressure. The consumption end maintains strong resilience, the social inventory center continues to decline, the absolute value of LME inventory remains low, the spot premium is at a relatively high level, and the export window remains open. The fundamental data has fully changed from bearish to bullish, the current zinc valuation is low, and there is optimism about future consumption. The expectation of interest rate cuts remains unchanged, and re - inflation has not yet been reflected [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium is $162.99 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price decreased by 120 yuan/ton to 23,070 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of 65 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong zinc spot price decreased by 110 yuan/ton to 22,990 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 15 yuan/ton. The Tianjin zinc spot price decreased by 110 yuan/ton to 22,960 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 45 yuan/ton [2]. - **Futures**: On December 10, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 23,120 yuan/ton, closed at 23,075 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 118,200 lots, and the position was 93,179 lots. The highest intraday price reached 23,210 yuan/ton, and the lowest reached 22,970 yuan/ton [3]. - **Inventory**: As of December 10, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 136,000 tons, a decrease of 43,000 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, the LME zinc inventory was 59,800 tons, an increase of 1,650 tons from the previous trading day [4]. Strategy - **Single - side**: Cautiously bullish [6]. - **Arbitrage**: Inter - period positive arbitrage [6].