新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-11 锌价回落现货贴水小幅修复 重要数据 期货方面：2025-12-10沪锌主力合约开于23120元/吨，收于23075元/吨，较前一交易日-60元/吨，全天交易日成交 118200手，全天交易日持仓93179手，日内价格最高点达到23210元/吨，最低点达到22970元/吨。 库存方面：截至2025-12-10，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为13.60万吨，较上期变化-0.43万吨。截止2025-12-10，LME 锌库存为59800吨，较上一交易日变化1650吨。 市场分析 随着锌价的回落，现货市场贴水继续小幅修复，贸易商积极出货，近月合约价差一度变为平水。矿端TC持续下滑 趋势不改，伴随绝对价格高位回落，冶炼厂亏损扩大。冶炼厂原料库存依旧回落，采购积极性仍在，TC有望持续 下滑，冶炼积极性明显回落，冶炼产量环比明显下滑，供给压力缓解。消费端保持强势韧性，社会库存重心持续 回落，LME库存绝对值依旧维持低位，现货升水处于相对高位，出口窗口持续打开。基本面数据已经全面从前期 利空转为利多，且当前锌估值偏低，对未来的消费保持乐观，降息预期不改，再通胀尚未体现。 策略 单边： ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-06 锌价回调现货贴水修复 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为138.78美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日变化-80元/吨至22500元/吨，SMM 上海锌现货升贴水-75元/吨；SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日-90元/吨至22480元/吨，广东锌现货升贴水-95元/吨； 天津锌现货价较前一交易日-90元/吨至22480元/吨，天津锌现货升贴水-95元/吨。 期货方面：2025-11-05沪锌主力合约开于22605元/吨，收于22650元/吨，较前一交易日-35元/吨，全天交易日成交 100837手，全天交易日持仓112477手，日内价格最高点达到22685元/吨，最低点达到22505元/吨。 库存方面：截至2025-11-05，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为16.17万吨，较上期变化0.03万吨。截止2025-11-05，LME 锌库存为34000吨，较上一交易日变化175吨。 市场分析 锌价回调后现货贴水修复，下游刚需依旧。原料端，目前冶炼厂原料库存可用天数下滑，叠加冬储需求，对矿端 采购需求旺盛，海内外矿TC均出现明显回落，冶炼综合利润被严重压缩，高成本地 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Unilateral strategy: Neutral [6] - Arbitrage strategy: Neutral [6] Group 2: Core Views - After the Fed's interest rate cut, non - ferrous commodities generally corrected. Domestic downstream price - fixing enthusiasm increased, and the spot discount was slightly repaired but still weaker than the off - season. The internal - external ratio is widening, with the LME inventory falling below 50,000 tons and the spot export window about to open. The domestic fundamentals are weak, with large supply pressure and difficult de - stocking. Overseas has strong support, and attention should be paid to overseas interest rate cut frequency and inflation data [5] Group 3: Key Data Spot - LME zinc spot premium is $24.36 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,010 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of - 60 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,000 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 90 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is 21,990 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 80 yuan/ton [2] Futures - On September 18, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22,175 yuan/ton, closed at 22,035 yuan/ton, down 245 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 119,872 lots, and the open interest was 71,757 lots. The highest price was 22,205 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 21,950 yuan/ton [3] Inventory - As of September 18, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 158,500 tons, a decrease of 2,100 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, LME zinc inventory was 48,825 tons, a decrease of 150 tons from the previous trading day [4]