Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - As zinc prices decline, the spot market discount continues to repair slightly. The spread between near - month contracts has become flat. The TC of the mining end continues to decline, and the losses of smelters expand. The raw material inventory of smelters continues to fall, and the procurement enthusiasm remains, so TC is expected to continue to decline. The smelting enthusiasm has significantly declined, and the smelting output has decreased significantly month - on - month, alleviating the supply pressure. The consumption end maintains strong resilience, the social inventory center continues to decline, the absolute value of LME inventory remains low, the spot premium is at a relatively high level, and the export window remains open. The fundamental data has fully changed from bearish to bullish, the current zinc valuation is low, and there is optimism about future consumption. The expectation of interest rate cuts remains unchanged, and re - inflation has not yet been reflected [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium is $162.99 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price decreased by 120 yuan/ton to 23,070 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of 65 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong zinc spot price decreased by 110 yuan/ton to 22,990 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 15 yuan/ton. The Tianjin zinc spot price decreased by 110 yuan/ton to 22,960 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 45 yuan/ton [2]. - **Futures**: On December 10, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 23,120 yuan/ton, closed at 23,075 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 118,200 lots, and the position was 93,179 lots. The highest intraday price reached 23,210 yuan/ton, and the lowest reached 22,970 yuan/ton [3]. - **Inventory**: As of December 10, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 136,000 tons, a decrease of 43,000 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, the LME zinc inventory was 59,800 tons, an increase of 1,650 tons from the previous trading day [4]. Strategy - **Single - side**: Cautiously bullish [6]. - **Arbitrage**: Inter - period positive arbitrage [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. - Arbitrage: Neutral. [6] 2. Core Viewpoints - After the zinc price correction, the spot discount was repaired, and downstream rigid demand remained. The raw material inventory days of smelters decreased, and the procurement demand for ore was strong due to winter storage needs, leading to a significant decline in TC and compressed smelting profits. The expected supply growth rate declined in November, and if TC continued to fall, supply pressure was expected to ease. The LME warehouse receipts remained at a low level, the spot premium was still high, the export window remained open, and the warehouse receipt risk was not alleviated. Domestic social inventory did not accumulate for a long time, and the accumulation amplitude was lower than expected. Micro - data gradually changed from bearish to bullish, while the macro - environment remained positive. [5] 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium was $138.78 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price decreased by 80 yuan/ton to 22,500 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 75 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong zinc spot price decreased by 90 yuan/ton to 22,480 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 95 yuan/ton. The Tianjin zinc spot price decreased by 90 yuan/ton to 22,480 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 95 yuan/ton. [2] - **Futures**: On November 5, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22,605 yuan/ton, closed at 22,650 yuan/ton (down 35 yuan/ton from the previous trading day). The trading volume was 100,837 lots, and the open interest was 112,477 lots. The highest price during the day was 22,685 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,505 yuan/ton. [3] - **Inventory**: As of November 5, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 161,700 tons, a change of 300 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 34,000 tons, a change of 175 tons from the previous trading day. [4]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Unilateral strategy: Neutral [6] - Arbitrage strategy: Neutral [6] Group 2: Core Views - After the Fed's interest rate cut, non - ferrous commodities generally corrected. Domestic downstream price - fixing enthusiasm increased, and the spot discount was slightly repaired but still weaker than the off - season. The internal - external ratio is widening, with the LME inventory falling below 50,000 tons and the spot export window about to open. The domestic fundamentals are weak, with large supply pressure and difficult de - stocking. Overseas has strong support, and attention should be paid to overseas interest rate cut frequency and inflation data [5] Group 3: Key Data Spot - LME zinc spot premium is $24.36 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,010 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of - 60 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,000 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 90 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is 21,990 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 80 yuan/ton [2] Futures - On September 18, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22,175 yuan/ton, closed at 22,035 yuan/ton, down 245 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 119,872 lots, and the open interest was 71,757 lots. The highest price was 22,205 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 21,950 yuan/ton [3] Inventory - As of September 18, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 158,500 tons, a decrease of 2,100 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, LME zinc inventory was 48,825 tons, a decrease of 150 tons from the previous trading day [4]