Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. - Arbitrage: Neutral. [6] 2. Core View of the Report - The spot market discount is still slightly weakening, and the market trading enthusiasm is poor. The TC of domestic and imported mines continues to rise, smelting profits are increasing, and the smelting enthusiasm remains high. The supply-side incremental expectation remains unchanged. Even during the peak consumption season, the domestic inventory accumulation expectation remains unchanged. If the peak consumption season expectation fails, zinc prices will face significant pressure and may show a relatively weak trend. However, the impact of overseas inventories needs to be monitored. [5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium is -$0.23/ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price increased by 60 yuan/ton to 22,530 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -45 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong zinc spot price increased by 70 yuan/ton to 22,510 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -65 yuan/ton. The Tianjin zinc spot price increased by 60 yuan/ton to 22,520 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -55 yuan/ton. [2] - **Futures**: On August 11, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22,485 yuan/ton, closed at 22,590 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 87,765 lots, and the open interest was 93,386 lots. The highest price during the day was 22,670 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,425 yuan/ton. [3] - **Inventory**: As of August 11, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 119,200 tons, a change of 6,000 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, the LME zinc inventory was 80,425 tons, a change of -1,075 tons from the previous trading day. [4] Market Analysis - The spot market discount is slightly weakening, and trading enthusiasm is low. The TC of domestic and imported mines continues to rise, smelting profits are increasing, and smelting enthusiasm remains high. The supply - side pressure is continuously prominent. Even during the peak consumption season, the domestic inventory accumulation expectation remains unchanged. If the peak consumption season expectation fails, zinc prices will face significant pressure and may show a relatively weak trend, but the impact of overseas inventories needs attention. [5] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. - Arbitrage: Neutral. [6]

Core Viewpoint - The zinc market is experiencing a stable supply and demand situation, with an increase in both domestic and imported zinc concentrate inventories, while consumption is expected to decline in the short term due to seasonal factors [1] Supply Side - Domestic zinc concentrate market remains stable, with the average weekly TC price at 3,800 RMB per metal ton and the imported zinc concentrate index rising to 73.75 USD per dry ton [1] - Port inventories of imported zinc concentrate increased by 107,000 tons to 440,000 tons, indicating a robust supply [1] - Despite the increase in imported TC, domestic smelting profits are high, leading smelters to prefer domestic concentrate, suggesting potential for further TC increases [1] Smelting Sector - In July, domestic smelting plants are undergoing both maintenance and resumption of operations, with refined zinc output expected to increase by approximately 12,000 tons month-on-month [1] - The recent rise in zinc concentrate processing fees has expanded smelter profits, and with sufficient domestic zinc concentrate supply, smelting activity is likely to increase [1] Consumption Trends - July and August are typically off-peak months for zinc consumption, resulting in reduced terminal orders and lower operational enthusiasm among downstream enterprises [1] - Downstream raw material inventories are at high levels, leading to poor purchasing sentiment, although policies like "old for new" may stimulate consumption [1] - Attention should be paid to consumption in infrastructure, automotive, and home appliance sectors [1] Inventory Data - As of July 17, SMM zinc ingot inventory stood at 93,500 tons, an increase of 400 tons from July 14 and 3,200 tons from July 10 [1] - LME zinc inventory on July 18 was 119,100 tons, up 13,900 tons from July 11 [1] Market Outlook - The macroeconomic environment is improving, with indications of short positions exiting the market [1] - Zinc prices may rebound due to macroeconomic and funding conditions, but medium to long-term outlook suggests ample supply from the mining sector and potential for TC increases [1] - Smelters are expected to maintain high operating rates, leading to increased refined zinc supply, while consumption is entering a seasonal decline, potentially resulting in inventory accumulation [1] Trading Strategy - A single-sided trading approach is recommended, with short-term zinc prices expected to be strong, allowing for day trading on long positions [1] - As macro sentiment fades, consider shorting based on inventory accumulation levels [1] - For arbitrage operations, a wait-and-see approach is advised [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish [4] - Arbitrage: Neutral [4] 2. Core View - The spot premium of zinc continues to weaken. With sufficient raw material reserves downstream, positive US macro - data, and rising commodity prices, pressure on zinc premium will continue. The supply surplus expectation remains unchanged in the second half of the year due to increasing import ore TC, rising zinc concentrate production, and high domestic smelting profits. Although downstream consumption shows some resilience, it cannot offset the high growth on the supply side, leading to a continuous inventory build - up trend [3]. 3. Key Data Summary Spot Market - LME zinc spot premium is -$8.95 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price rose by 60 yuan/ton to 22,110 yuan/ton, with the premium down 10 yuan/ton to 20 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price rose by 60 yuan/ton to 22,030 yuan/ton, with the premium down 10 yuan/ton to - 60 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price rose by 70 yuan/ton to 22,070 yuan/ton, with the premium unchanged at - 20 yuan/ton [1]. Futures Market - On July 17, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 21,975 yuan/ton and closed at 22,130 yuan/ton, up 115 yuan/ton. Trading volume was 77,512 lots, down 11,957 lots from the previous day, and positions were 67,223 lots, down 11,088 lots. The intraday price fluctuated between 21,970 yuan/ton and 22,170 yuan/ton [1]. Inventory - As of July 17, 2025, SMM's seven - region zinc ingot inventory was 93,500 tons, up 3,200 tons from last week. LME zinc inventory was 121,475 tons, up 125 tons from the previous day [1][2]. 4. Market Analysis - Spot market: The spot premium is weakening. Sufficient downstream raw material reserves and positive US macro - data will continue to pressure the zinc premium. - Cost side: Import ore TC is rising. Vedanta's Q2 report shows a 7% year - on - year increase in zinc concentrate production. High domestic smelting profits and sufficient raw material inventory of smelters lead to low procurement enthusiasm. - Consumption side: Downstream operating rates show resilience, but cannot offset the high growth on the supply side. Social inventory is increasing, and the inventory build - up trend is expected to continue in the second half of the year [3].

Report Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. Arbitrage: Neutral [4] Core View - The absolute price of zinc has declined significantly, and the spot market premium has not improved significantly. The supply is relatively abundant, and the zinc price is weak despite the new low of the US dollar index. The supply pressure remains high, and the negative feedback of invisible inventory may occur. The deviation between the macro - positive and the fundamentals may pull the zinc price back, and attention should be paid to the change of social inventory [3] Summary by Related Content Spot and Futures Market - LME zinc spot premium is -$18.75 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price dropped by 210 yuan/ton to 22,280 yuan/ton, and its spot premium rose by 25 yuan/ton to 105 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price fell by 240 yuan/ton to 22,250 yuan/ton, and its spot premium dropped by 5 yuan/ton to 75 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 22,210 yuan/ton, and its spot premium increased by 35 yuan/ton to 35 yuan/ton [1] - On July 1, 2025, the opening price of the SHFE zinc main contract was 22,380 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 22,255 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 178,683 lots, an increase of 17,759 lots, and the position was 134,433 lots, a decrease of 5,753 lots. The intraday price fluctuated between 22,105 - 22,420 yuan/ton [1] Inventory - As of June 30, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 80,600 tons, an increase of 2,800 tons from the previous week. The LME zinc inventory was 117,475 tons, a decrease of 1,750 tons from the previous trading day [2] Market Analysis - The supply in June increased by 7.2% year - on - year, and the expected output in July is still as high as 590,000 tons. The social inventory has increased slightly, and the finished product inventory of smelters and zinc alloy inventory have increased significantly. The alloy operating rate has started to decline, and the negative feedback of invisible inventory may occur [3] - The TC of the ore end has further increased, the smelting profit has expanded, and the smelting enthusiasm has been further enhanced, so the supply pressure remains [3] - After the absolute price increase, the spot market trading has become more sluggish, and the spot premium has quickly declined [3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] 2) Core View of the Report - Zinc prices face upward pressure again. Consumption shows a marginal decline, and the lack of fundamental drivers for price increases. If social inventories continue to rise, it will exert significant downward pressure on zinc prices [1][5] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is -$24.65/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price rose by 200 yuan/ton to 22,150 yuan/ton, and the premium rose by 130 yuan/ton to 230 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price rose by 250 yuan/ton to 22,100 yuan/ton, and the premium rose by 180 yuan/ton to 180 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price rose by 170 yuan/ton to 22,100 yuan/ton, and the premium rose by 100 yuan/ton to 180 yuan/ton [2] - **Futures**: On June 24, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 21,875 yuan/ton and closed at 21,920 yuan/ton, up 185 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 185,998 lots, an increase of 88,110 lots, and the position was 121,470 lots, an increase of 53,580 lots. The highest price reached 22,030 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 21,825 yuan/ton [2] - **Inventory**: As of June 23, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 77,800 tons, a decrease of 300 tons from the previous week. As of June 24, 2025, LME zinc inventory was 123,450 tons, a decrease of 2,450 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - Transportation in South China may be affected, but the spot market is not strong due to low inventory, and the spot premium continues to decline. Zinc alloy开工率 has dropped significantly, and a negative feedback of hidden inventory may occur. TC remains stable overall, and the overseas zinc ore shipment volume is increasing. Although the further upward space is limited, the strong trend remains unchanged. There are still smelting profits at the current TC price, and the smelting enthusiasm is high, so the supply pressure remains [4] Strategy - Consumption shows a marginal decline, the spot premium has dropped significantly, and zinc price increases lack fundamental drivers. If social inventories continue to increase, it will form significant downward pressure [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Macro**: As of the end of May, China's broad money (M2) balance was 325.78 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%. Narrow money (M1) balance was 108.91 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.3%. The balance of currency in circulation (M0) was 13.13 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.1%. In the first five months, net cash investment was 30.64 billion yuan [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Last week, zinc prices continued to fluctuate. Geopolitical events had little impact on zinc prices. In June, the downstream entered the off - season, and attention should be paid to the inflection point of social inventories. In terms of fundamentals, the cyclical supply of zinc ore is becoming looser. In 2025, several major zinc ore projects at home and abroad have production increase plans. The recovery of global zinc ore production has led to a continuous marginal strengthening of zinc ore spot TC. The increase in ore production is transmitted to the smelting end. With the improvement of smelting profits, the operating rate of domestic smelters has increased, and maintenance has been postponed. The output of refined zinc has marginally recovered, and the production increase situation in the ore and smelting ends is expected to continue. On the demand side, trade disputes may drag down the global economic growth rate, and there is a hidden worry of contraction in the total zinc demand. Even if countries quickly reach new trade agreements and the global economic growth rate maintains resilience, there is no expectation of an increase in the total zinc demand, and it will mainly remain at the existing level. Whether the demand is estimated to be optimistic or pessimistic, the zinc supply - demand balance tends to be in surplus, putting downward pressure on the long - term zinc price center [6]. - **Strategy**: In the short and medium term, due to the low level of social inventories, the monthly spread is still wide, and the back structure is deep, supporting the near - month contracts. However, with the continuous recovery of the smelting end, the high premium is expected to be temporary. In terms of strategy, short positions can still be considered for far - month contracts when prices are high [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Fundamentals - Supply Side - **Zinc Concentrate Production**: In March 2025, the global zinc concentrate output was 1.0184 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.65%. The international long - term TC price of zinc ore in 2025 was set at $80/ton, the lowest in history, and was halved compared with the previous year. Overseas high - cost smelters may face operational pressure. However, the long - term TC in 2024 was seriously overestimated, and the trend of marginal loosening of zinc ore supply has not changed [8]. - **Zinc Concentrate Imports and Processing Fees**: From January to April, China's cumulative import of zinc concentrate was 1.7137 million physical tons, a year - on - year increase of 45.5%. The increase in imported ore volume boosted the processing fees. As of June 13, the processing fee for imported ore was reported at $53/ton, and the processing fee for domestic ore was reported at 3,600 yuan/ton. Both domestic and imported ore processing fees have been raised several times recently [11]. - **Smelter Profit Estimation**: With the continuous increase in processing fees, the profits of smelters have been continuously improved [14]. - **Refined Zinc Output**: In March 2025, the global refined zinc output was 1.1219 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.91%. In May 2025, China's refined zinc output was 550,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.6%. As profits recover, output is gradually increasing [18]. - **Refined Zinc Import Profit and Import Volume**: From January to April 2025, China's cumulative net import of refined zinc was 120,000 tons. The refined zinc import window is currently closed [20]. 3.2 Industry Fundamentals - Consumption Side - **Initial Consumption of Refined Zinc**: In April, China's galvanized sheet output was 2.28 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.64%. The apparent consumption of galvanized products was relatively sluggish, indicating weak actual demand and active destocking of hidden inventories in the industrial chain [25]. - **Terminal Consumption of Refined Zinc - Infrastructure and Real Estate**: From January to May 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment completion (excluding electricity) declined. The back - end of the real estate market improved month - on - month, but front - end indicators such as new construction and construction were still weak [27]. - **Terminal Consumption of Refined Zinc - Automobiles and Home Appliances**: In May 2025, China's automobile output was 2.6485 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 11.65%. In some regions, the national subsidy funds were exhausted, and the production and sales of home appliances cooled down. Attention should be paid to the impact of subsequent tariffs [30]. 3.3 Other Indicators - **Inventory**: At low prices, downstream enterprises made excessive purchases to replenish inventories, and social inventories continued to decline. As the off - season approaches, the inflection point of social inventories is approaching [32]. - **Spot Premium and Discount**: As of June 13, the LME 0 - 3 premium and discount of zinc was reported at a discount of $22.95/ton. Due to the low level of social inventories, the spot premium was high [35]. - **Exchange Positions**: As of June 6, the net long position of LME zinc investment funds was 11,086 lots. The weighted position of SHFE zinc increased significantly [38].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. Arbitrage: Neutral [4] Group 2: Core View - Zinc prices face significant upward pressure. The supply side has high pressure with expected supply growth of around 10% in June and long - term high supply growth in the second half of the year. Although consumption is currently strong, it can't offset the high supply growth and shows signs of weakening seasonally [1][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Important Data - Spot: LME zinc spot premium is -$32.08/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price rose by 10 yuan/ton to 22,310 yuan/ton, with the premium down 15 yuan/ton to 260 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price rose by 30 yuan/ton to 22,330 yuan/ton, with the premium up 5 yuan/ton to 280 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price rose by 20 yuan/ton to 22,280 yuan/ton, with the premium down 5 yuan/ton to 230 yuan/ton [1] - Futures: On June 12, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,100 yuan/ton, closed at 22,085 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton. Trading volume was 118,688 lots, down 51,539 lots. Open interest was 121,089 lots, down 4,690 lots. The intraday price fluctuated between 21,965 - 22,160 yuan/ton [1] - Inventory: As of June 12, 2025, SMM's seven - region zinc ingot inventory was 77,100 tons, down 2,200 tons from last week. LME zinc inventory was 132,025 tons, down 550 tons from the previous trading day [2] Market Analysis - Spot market: Downstream procurement enthusiasm is still low, and spot premiums continue to decline [3] - Supply: Port and smelter raw material inventories are sufficient, TC is rising, and smelting profits are high. Supply pressure remains, with expected supply growth of around 10% in June and long - term high supply growth in the second half of the year [3] - Consumption: Overall consumption is strong, but the impact of Sino - US tariffs is not yet apparent. It can't offset high supply growth, and there are signs of seasonal weakening [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot premium of zinc has further weakened. The supply pressure remains, with a 10% supply growth expected in June and a long - term high supply growth rate likely in the second half of the year. Although consumption is strong, it cannot offset the high supply growth and shows signs of weakening seasonally [1][4] - For trading strategies, a cautious and bearish stance is recommended for single - side trading, and a neutral stance for arbitrage [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data - Spot: LME zinc spot premium is -$33.05/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price rose by 140 yuan/ton to 22,300 yuan/ton, with the premium down 20 yuan/ton to 275 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price rose by 150 yuan/ton to 22,300 yuan/ton, with the premium down 10 yuan/ton to 275 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price rose by 150 yuan/ton to 22,260 yuan/ton, with the premium down 10 yuan/ton to 235 yuan/ton [2] - Futures: On June 11, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 21,900 yuan/ton and closed at 22,140 yuan/ton, up 270 yuan/ton. Trading volume was 170,227 lots, an increase of 11,596 lots. Open interest was 125,779 lots, a decrease of 9,292 lots. The highest price was 22,205 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 21,855 yuan/ton [2] - Inventory: As of June 9, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 81,700 tons, an increase of 4,300 tons from last week. As of June 11, 2025, LME zinc inventory was 132,575 tons, a decrease of 1,975 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - Spot market: After the absolute price increase, the spot purchasing enthusiasm declined, and the spot premium further weakened [4] - Supply: Port and smelter raw material inventories are sufficient, TC is rising, and smelting profits are high. Supply pressure remains, with a 10% supply growth expected in June and long - term high supply growth likely in the second half of the year [4] - Consumption: Overall consumption is strong, but the impact of China - US tariffs has not yet appeared. It cannot offset the high supply growth, and there are signs of seasonal weakening [4] Strategy - Single - side trading: Cautious and bearish [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5]

Report Summary Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] Core View - Zinc prices are testing the lower support level. The supply pressure remains high, with a 10% supply growth expected in June and a long - term high supply growth rate in the second half of the year. Although consumption is strong overall, it is difficult to offset the high supply growth, and there are signs of a sequential decline in consumption due to the seasonal off - season [1][4] Key Data Spot and Futures - LME zinc spot premium is -$35.03 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price dropped by 430 yuan/ton to 22,160 yuan/ton, and its premium dropped by 5 yuan/ton to 295 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong and Tianjin zinc spot prices also declined, while their premiums increased. The SHFE zinc main contract opened at 21,945 yuan/ton, closed at 21,845 yuan/ton, down 280 yuan/ton. Trading volume was 158,631 lots, a decrease of 83,562 lots, and positions were 135,071 lots, a decrease of 647 lots [2] Inventory - As of June 9, 2025, SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory was 81,700 tons, an increase of 4,300 tons from last week. As of June 10, 2025, LME zinc inventory was 134,550 tons, a decrease of 1,050 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - **Spot Market**: As the absolute price fell, downstream purchasing enthusiasm increased, and the spot premium stopped falling and stabilized [4] - **Supply**: Port and smelter raw material inventories are sufficient, TC is rising, and smelting profits are high. Supply pressure remains, with a 10% supply growth expected in June and a long - term high supply growth rate in the second half of the year [4] - **Consumption**: Overall consumption is strong, but the impact of Sino - US tariffs has not been felt. However, it is difficult to offset the high supply growth, and there are signs of a sequential decline in consumption due to the seasonal off - season [4]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Unilateral: Neutral; Arbitrage: Inter - period positive spread [4] Group 2: Core Views - The rising absolute price of zinc has weakened the purchasing enthusiasm in the spot market, and both the spot premium and monthly spread have slightly declined. The supply pressure remains, with a 10% supply growth expected in June and a long - term high - supply growth rate in the second half of the year. The impact of Sino - US tariffs on consumption has not yet appeared, and the consumption is guaranteed. The comprehensive decline in inventory strongly supports the zinc price, but there is a risk of weakening consumption in June [3] Group 3: Summary of Key Data Spot Market - LME zinc spot premium is -$26.08/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,790 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium is 590 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,660 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton, with a flat spot premium of 460 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,760 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton, and the spot premium is 560 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton [1] Futures Market - On June 3, 2025, the main contract of SHFE zinc opened at 22,330 yuan/ton and closed at 22,180 yuan/ton, down 105 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 155,440 lots, down 26,261 lots, and the open interest was 122,728 lots, up 6,114 lots. The highest price was 22,515 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,090 yuan/ton [1] Inventory - As of June 3, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 77,400 tons, down 1,400 tons from the previous week. The LME zinc inventory was 137,350 tons, down 800 tons from the previous trading day [2]