重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为-45.20美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日变化-130元/吨至24170元/吨，SMM 上海锌现货升贴水100元/吨；SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日-120元/吨至24090元/吨，广东锌现货升贴水20元/吨； 天津锌现货价较前一交易日-120元/吨至24100元/吨，天津锌现货升贴水30元/吨。 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-01-09 累库缓慢现货升水坚挺 期货方面：2026-01-08沪锌主力合约开于24190元/吨，收于23975元/吨，较前一交易日-330元/吨，全天交易日成交 151811手，全天交易日持仓83786手，日内价格最高点达到24230元/吨，最低点达到23845元/吨。 库存方面：截至2026-01-08，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为11.85万吨，较上期变化0.38万吨。截止2026-01-08，LME 锌库存为108000吨，较上一交易日变化2500吨。 市场分析 消费呈现向淡季转化的迹象，但仍存在刚性，社会库存累库幅度较缓慢，现货市场供应依旧偏紧，现货升水坚挺， 绝对价格回落后下游仍维持刚需采购。国产矿TC停止下跌，进口矿仍在小 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-25 消费逐步向淡季转换 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为-29.14美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日变化170元/吨至23260元/吨，SMM 上海锌现货升贴水90元/吨；SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日200元/吨至23220元/吨，广东锌现货升贴水-5元/吨； 天津锌现货价较前一交易日180元/吨至23170元/吨，天津锌现货升贴水0元/吨。 期货方面：2025-12-24沪锌主力合约开于23290元/吨，收于23230元/吨，较前一交易日215元/吨，全天交易日成交 171518手，全天交易日持仓95197手，日内价格最高点达到23320元/吨，最低点达到23045元/吨。 库存方面：截至2025-12-24，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为12.45万吨，较上期变化0.23万吨。截止2025-12-24，LME 锌库存为106875吨，较上一交易日变化7900吨。 市场分析 锌价回落现货市场存在补库行为，但社会库存增加，即将超过过去五年同期水平，现货流通性好转，仍以谨慎采 购为主。成本端，国产矿进口矿TC持续上涨，冶炼利润走高，冶炼积极性持续，供给端增量 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-23 消费高频表现略有疲软 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为-30.61美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日变化-10元/吨至23150元/吨，SMM 上海锌现货升贴水110元/吨；SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日10元/吨至23070元/吨，广东锌现货升贴水10元/吨； 天津锌现货价较前一交易日-10元/吨至23050元/吨，天津锌现货升贴水10元/吨。 期货方面：2025-12-22沪锌主力合约开于23075元/吨，收于23115元/吨，较前一交易日95元/吨，全天交易日成交 134424手，全天交易日持仓90612手，日内价格最高点达到23150元/吨，最低点达到22980元/吨。 库存方面：截至2025-12-22，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为12.45万吨，较上期变化0.23万吨。截止2025-12-22，LME 锌库存为99250吨，较上一交易日变化-650吨。 市场分析 现货市场方面，下游按需采购，社会库存止跌，但现货升贴水持续走强。内外比价快速回归，锌矿进口窗口打开， 国产矿TC停止下跌，叠加前期冶炼厂积极冬储后，当前对锌矿采购热情环比有所减弱。冶 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. Arbitrage: Neutral. [5] Core View - Zinc prices have declined, and there is restocking behavior in the spot market. However, social inventories are increasing and are about to exceed the same period of the past five years. The spot liquidity has improved, but procurement remains cautious. The TC of domestic and imported mines continues to rise, leading to higher smelting profits and sustained smelting enthusiasm. The supply is expected to increase. Even during the peak consumption season, the inventory accumulation in China is still expected, and the current inventory accumulation is accelerating. If the peak consumption season expectations are disappointed, zinc prices will face significant pressure and may show a relatively weak trend. Attention should be paid to the impact of overseas inventories. [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Market - LME zinc spot premium is $90.60 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price decreased by 230 yuan/ton to 23,470 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of 70 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price decreased by 230 yuan/ton to 23,390 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -10 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price decreased by 210 yuan/ton to 23,380 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -20 yuan/ton. [1] Futures Market - On December 15, 2025, the main contract of SHFE zinc opened at 23,480 yuan/ton, closed at 23,430 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 168,578 lots, and the position was 83,302 lots. The highest price during the day was 23,600 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 23,205 yuan/ton. [2] Inventory - As of December 15, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 125,700 tons, a decrease of 2,600 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, LME zinc inventory was 64,475 tons, an increase of 2,550 tons from the previous trading day. [3]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-11 锌价回落现货贴水小幅修复 重要数据 期货方面：2025-12-10沪锌主力合约开于23120元/吨，收于23075元/吨，较前一交易日-60元/吨，全天交易日成交 118200手，全天交易日持仓93179手，日内价格最高点达到23210元/吨，最低点达到22970元/吨。 库存方面：截至2025-12-10，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为13.60万吨，较上期变化-0.43万吨。截止2025-12-10，LME 锌库存为59800吨，较上一交易日变化1650吨。 市场分析 随着锌价的回落，现货市场贴水继续小幅修复，贸易商积极出货，近月合约价差一度变为平水。矿端TC持续下滑 趋势不改，伴随绝对价格高位回落，冶炼厂亏损扩大。冶炼厂原料库存依旧回落，采购积极性仍在，TC有望持续 下滑，冶炼积极性明显回落，冶炼产量环比明显下滑，供给压力缓解。消费端保持强势韧性，社会库存重心持续 回落，LME库存绝对值依旧维持低位，现货升水处于相对高位，出口窗口持续打开。基本面数据已经全面从前期 利空转为利多，且当前锌估值偏低，对未来的消费保持乐观，降息预期不改，再通胀尚未体现。 策略 单边： ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish; Arbitrage: Neutral [6] Group 2: Report's Core View - Zinc prices have declined, and there is restocking behavior in the spot market, but social inventories are increasing and are about to exceed the levels of the past five years. Spot liquidity has improved, but procurement remains cautious. The TC of domestic and imported ores continues to rise, leading to higher smelting profits and sustained smelting enthusiasm. The supply is expected to increase, and the pressure on the supply side continues to emerge. Even during the peak consumption season, the domestic inventory accumulation is expected, and the current inventory accumulation is accelerating. If the peak consumption season expectations are disappointed, zinc prices will face significant pressure and may show a relatively weak trend, but the impact of overseas inventories needs attention [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is $175.85/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,400 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a premium of -10 yuan/ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,360 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton, with a premium of -50 yuan/ton; Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,360 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton, with a premium of -50 yuan/ton [2] - **Futures**: On November 17, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22,460 yuan/ton, closed at 22,465 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 94,668 lots, and the open interest was 91,450 lots. The highest price was 22,495 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,385 yuan/ton [3] - **Inventory**: As of November 17, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 156,600 tons, down 1,300 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, LME zinc inventory was 39,975 tons, up 1,000 tons from the previous trading day [4] Market Analysis - Zinc prices have dropped, and there is restocking in the spot market, but social inventories are rising and approaching the five - year average. Spot liquidity has improved, but procurement is still cautious. The TC of domestic and imported ores is rising, smelting profits are increasing, and smelting enthusiasm remains high. The supply is expected to increase, and the pressure on the supply side is obvious. Even during the peak consumption season, domestic inventory accumulation is expected, and the current inventory build - up is accelerating. If the peak consumption season expectations are not met, zinc prices will face great pressure and may be relatively weak, but the impact of overseas inventories needs to be considered [5] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish; Arbitrage: Neutral [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. Arbitrage: Neutral [5] Core View - In November, domestic and overseas zinc ore TC decreased significantly, squeezing smelter profits and potentially reducing supply pressure. Overseas warehouse receipts remain low with high premiums, and domestic inventories are falling, and micro - data is turning from bearish to bullish while the macro background remains positive [4] Key Data Summary Spot - LME zinc spot premium is $128.30/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,630 yuan/ton, with a premium of - 40 yuan/ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,590 yuan/ton, with a premium of - 80 yuan/ton; Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,590 yuan/ton, with a premium of - 80 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On November 13, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22,630 yuan/ton, closed at 22,740 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 97,686 lots, and the position was 102,938 lots. The highest price was 22,760 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,550 yuan/ton [2] Inventory - As of November 13, 2025, SMM's seven - region zinc ingot inventory was 157,900 tons, down 1,700 tons from the previous period. LME zinc inventory was 37,800 tons, up 1,925 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis Summary - In November, domestic and overseas zinc ore TC decreased significantly. The smelting comprehensive profit has been compressed from about 1,400 yuan/ton to about 300 yuan/ton, and high - cost areas are facing losses. Overseas warehouse receipts are still low, and domestic inventories are falling [4] Strategy Summary - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. Arbitrage: Neutral [5]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish; Arbitrage: Neutral [6] Group 2: Core Views - In November, domestic zinc concentrate treatment charges (TC) dropped significantly, and overseas TC also decreased synchronously. With strong demand from smelters for zinc concentrate, TC is expected to decline further. [5] - As TC drops, smelting comprehensive profits are severely compressed, leading to losses in high - cost areas, which will suppress smelting enthusiasm and reduce supply - side pressure more than expected. [5] - Overseas zinc inventories are still low despite a slight increase in warehouse receipts, with high spot premiums. Domestic inventories are falling, and the export window is fully open, with the possibility of a significant seasonal decline in social inventories. [5] - Micro - data has almost fully shifted from bearish to bullish, while the macro - economic background remains positive. [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is $176.55 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,660 yuan per ton, with a change of 90 yuan from the previous trading day and a premium of - 45 yuan per ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,630 yuan per ton, up 100 yuan, with a premium of - 75 yuan per ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,620 yuan per ton, up 90 yuan, with a premium of - 85 yuan per ton. [2] - **Futures**: On November 11, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22,770 yuan per ton, closed at 22,675 yuan per ton, down 60 yuan. The trading volume was 81,702 lots, and the open interest was 107,475 lots. The highest price was 22,810 yuan per ton, and the lowest was 22,630 yuan per ton. [3] - **Inventory**: As of November 11, 2025, SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory is 159,600 tons, a change of 9,000 tons from the previous period. LME zinc inventory is 35,300 tons, a change of 400 tons from the previous trading day. [4] Market Analysis - Domestic and overseas zinc concentrate TC are both declining, and smelting profits are compressed, which will reduce supply - side pressure. [5] - Overseas inventories are low with high spot premiums, and domestic inventories are falling, with the export window open. [5] Strategy - Unilateral trading is advised to be cautiously bullish, and arbitrage is neutral. [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. - Arbitrage: Neutral. [5] 2. Core View of the Report - In November, domestic and overseas zinc ore TC decreased significantly. With strong demand from smelters for ore procurement, TC is expected to decline further. - As TC drops, smelting comprehensive profit has been severely compressed, suppressing smelting enthusiasm and potentially reducing supply - side pressure more than expected. - Overseas warehouse receipt inventory remains low with risks, and domestic inventory is falling, with a possible downward shift in the inventory center. Micro - data is turning from bearish to bullish, and the macro - economic background remains favorable. [4] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is $152.26/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,570 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a premium of - 45 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong and Tianjin zinc spot prices are 22,530 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a premium of - 85 yuan/ton. [1] - **Futures**: On November 10, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22,720 yuan/ton, closed at 22,670 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 104,875 lots, and the position was 110,752 lots. The highest price was 22,735 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,530 yuan/ton. [2] - **Inventory**: As of November 10, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots is 159,600 tons, up 900 tons from the previous period. LME zinc inventory is 34,900 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. [3] Market Analysis - Domestic and overseas zinc ore TC decreased significantly in November. With strong procurement demand from smelters, TC is expected to decline further. - The smelting comprehensive profit has been compressed from about 1,400 yuan/ton to about 300 yuan/ton, and high - cost areas are facing losses, which will suppress smelting enthusiasm and reduce supply - side pressure. - Overseas warehouse receipt inventory is low with risks, and domestic inventory is falling, with a possible downward shift in the inventory center. Micro - data is turning from bearish to bullish, and the macro - economic background remains favorable. [4] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. - Arbitrage: Neutral. [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unspecified 2. Report's Core View - The social inventory of zinc ingots is unlikely to continue accumulating and may even experience destocking, with strong consumption despite high domestic supply [5]. - The expected growth rate of supply is declining, and if the TC continues to fall, the supply - side pressure is expected to ease [5]. - LME warehouse receipts remain at a low level, the spot premium is still high, the export window remains open, and the warehouse receipt risk has not been alleviated [5]. - Micro - data is gradually shifting from bearish to bullish, and the macro - economic background remains positive [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium is $98.23 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,500 yuan per ton with a change of 0 yuan from the previous trading day and a spot premium of - 55 yuan per ton. The SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,460 yuan per ton, down 20 yuan from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of - 95 yuan per ton. The Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,460 yuan per ton, down 20 yuan from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of - 95 yuan per ton [2]. - **Futures**: On November 6, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,605 yuan per ton, closed at 22,675 yuan per ton, up 65 yuan from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 100,028 lots, and the open interest was 113,005 lots. The highest price was 22,685 yuan per ton, and the lowest was 22,535 yuan per ton [3]. - **Inventory**: As of November 6, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 158,700 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 34,100 tons, an increase of 100 tons from the previous trading day [4]. Market Analysis - The raw material inventory days of smelters are decreasing, and due to winter storage demand, the demand for ore procurement is strong, leading to a significant decline in domestic and overseas ore TC and squeezing smelting profits [5]. - The expected year - on - year growth rate of supply in November is expected to fall below 20%, and the daily average output is decreasing month - on - month [5]. Strategy - **Single - sided**: Cautiously bullish [6]. - **Arbitrage**: Neutral [6]