Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The zinc market is expected to maintain a basic pattern of oversupply and weak demand in the second half of 2025. Under Trump's tariff policy, the risk of a US economic recession is rising, and the oversupply at the zinc mine end may gradually spread to the zinc ingot end from June, causing the oversupply and weak demand to resonate. The Shanghai Zinc Index may decline significantly in the second half of 2025, and if there are macro risks in overseas financial markets, the zinc price may fall to around the 90% cost line of zinc mines [1][16]. Summary by Related Catalogs Review of Zinc Price Performance in the First Half of 2025 - From January 2 to May 30, 2025, the Shanghai Zinc Index fell 12.31% to 22,120 yuan/ton, and the total open interest decreased by 59,900 lots to 226,700 lots. The LME Zinc 3M contract fell 12.12% to 2,629.5 yuan/ton, and the total open interest slightly decreased to 213,700 lots [5]. - The zinc market in the first half of the year can be divided into four stages: from January 2 to February 5, the Shanghai Zinc Index showed a continuous unilateral decline; from February 6 to March 27, it showed a wide - range shock; from March 28 to April 7, it showed a continuous unilateral decline again; from April 8 to May 30, it showed a wide - range shock [5][6]. The Zinc Price Oversupply Cycle Is Not Over - Comparing three rounds of zinc oversupply cycles from the perspective of processing fees, the current domestic TC (Treatment and Refining Charges) has room to rise as its absolute value is significantly lower than the end of the previous two cycles. The current zinc supply is in the transition period from zinc mine oversupply to zinc ingot oversupply, and there is a risk of a sharp decline in zinc prices [9][10]. - As zinc prices decline, zinc smelters may jointly control production to support prices, and downstream enterprises may continue to stock up at low prices, which will resist the decline of zinc prices, but the actual impact needs to be analyzed based on subsequent production and sales data [10]. Outlook for Zinc Price Performance in the Second Half of 2025 - Macroeconomic background: After Trump was elected in 2025, global macro - economic disturbances increased, and the US has a certain risk of recession under high - tariff policies [13]. - Zinc mine supply: 2025 is the turning point of zinc mine supply. It is expected that the zinc mine supply will remain at a relatively high level in the second half of the year, but attention should be paid to the production disturbances of the US Red Dog project and other emergencies affecting large mines [13][16]. - Zinc ingot supply: The increase in TC and the strong by - product prices will push up the profits of zinc smelters. It is expected that the zinc ingot supply will remain at a relatively high level of 55 - 600,000 tons in the second half of the year [14][16]. - Downstream demand: The main primary demand for zinc ingots is concentrated in galvanized steel, and the terminal demand is concentrated in traditional sectors such as real estate and infrastructure. Currently, the demand growth is relatively limited [16]. - Overall: The zinc market is expected to maintain a pattern of oversupply and weak demand in the second half of 2025, and the Shanghai Zinc Index may decline significantly. The medium - term operating range of the Shanghai Zinc Index is expected to be 20,150 - 22,750 yuan/ton [1][16]