2026年02月24日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 铜：不确定性增强，价格震荡 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 锌：区间震荡 | 5 | | 铅：供需双弱，区间震荡 | 7 | | 锡：关注关税影响 | 8 | | 铝：节后风偏偏强 | 9 | | 氧化铝：区间震荡 | 9 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 9 | | 铂：受白银走强提振 | 11 | | 钯：关税扰动再起，震荡偏强 | 11 | | 镍：沪镍投机情绪仍存，持续关注镍矿矛盾 | 13 | | 不锈钢：成本支撑重心上移，淡季累库约束弹性 | 13 | | 碳酸锂：供需偏紧，盘面具备底部支撑 | 15 | | 工业硅：关注上游工厂复产节奏 | 17 | | 多晶硅：硅片价格下跌 | 17 | | 铁矿石：需求预期转弱，震荡下行 | 19 | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 20 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 20 | | 硅铁：节前交易情绪转弱，宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 锰硅：节前交易情绪转弱，宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 焦炭：宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 焦煤：宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 原木：低到港低库存，震荡偏强 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the non-ferrous metals industry [5] Core Viewpoints - Short-term fluctuations do not alter the long-term positive trend for the non-ferrous metals sector, with a focus on low-position investment opportunities [7][12] - The zinc sector is viewed as an overlooked foundational material in the context of "de-globalization," with improving supply-demand dynamics expected to drive prices upward [13] - The aluminum sector, particularly the electrolytic aluminum industry, is anticipated to enjoy valuation premiums due to its supply chain security and competitive advantages [14] - In the precious metals sector, investors are advised to wait for price stabilization before re-entering positions, despite a long-term bullish outlook for gold [14] Summary by Sections 1. Core Viewpoints - Short-term market volatility is expected, but the long-term outlook remains positive, driven by ongoing demand and supply constraints in the non-ferrous metals market [12] - The zinc market is expected to benefit from increased demand due to re-industrialization in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, despite current domestic construction concerns [13] - The aluminum industry is positioned to gain from enhanced supply chain security and competitive advantages, with domestic production capabilities improving [14] - Precious metals are currently experiencing high volatility, and investors are encouraged to wait for a more stable price environment before making new investments [14] 2. Steel Industry - The steel sector is facing a weak fundamental backdrop as it approaches the Chinese New Year, with expectations for policy measures to support the industry [15] - Steel production has seen a slight increase, but demand for rebar is weakening, with a notable decrease in consumption [20] - Inventory levels for both social and steel mill stocks are rising, indicating potential oversupply concerns [22] - Overall steel prices have experienced a slight decline, reflecting broader market trends [31] 3. New Energy Metals - Lithium production in December 2025 saw a significant year-on-year increase, indicating strong supply growth in the new energy sector [35] - The demand for new energy vehicles remains robust, with production and sales showing significant year-on-year growth [39] - Prices for lithium and nickel have shown notable declines, while cobalt prices have remained stable [44]

2 月 5 日参议院金融稳定监督委员会听证会上，民主党参议员就消费者物价上涨及特朗普试图影响美联 储一事追问贝森特。经济学家警告，突然大幅降息虽能短期刺激市场，但可能致美元贬值、长期物价上 涨。周五亚市时段，美元指数在 97.90 附近窄幅震荡。此外，全球股市走弱、油价反弹，美伊谈判不确 定性大，地缘风险溢价提振金银避险需求，外盘金银反弹，市场厌恶情绪缓解，锌价跌势放缓。 产业方面，加拿大艾芬豪矿业正与刚果国有矿业公司及瑞士大宗商品贸易商深入商谈，拟将 Kipushi 矿 高品位锌精矿纳入美国"Project Vault"战略储备计划并运往美国。美伊周五会谈局势存变数，海外锌矿 供应扰动风险支撑锌价。国内锌精矿现货加工费低位，镀锌板企业多春节放假停产，样本平均放假 9.8 天，山东部分厂因订单亏损提前放假，预计社会库存持续增加，现货成交低迷，以长单交投为主，下游 备货结束询价积极性弱，今日成交以刚需为主，实际交投疲软。此外，节前资金减持需求，短期锌价承 压。 整体看，近期沪锌走势受宏观情绪及有色板块联动影响，且终端消费趋弱，预计锌价将继续区间震荡走 弱。 （长江有色金属网cjys.cn研发团队 0592-56 ...

Group 1 - The recent decline in zinc prices is influenced by the correlation with stock and oil markets, as well as profit-taking by speculators, leading to a drop in LME zinc by 0.21% to $3299 per ton [1] - The macroeconomic environment shows a strong US dollar, which has reached a two-week high, impacting global demand for commodities and reflecting changes in market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [1][2] - Domestic copper concentrate processing fees are at low levels, and many galvanizing enterprises are halting production for an average of 9.8 days during the Spring Festival, contributing to increased social inventory and weak spot transactions [2] Group 2 - Canadian company Ivanhoe Mines is in negotiations to include high-grade zinc concentrate from the Kipushi mine into the US "Project Vault" strategic reserve, which may support zinc prices amid potential supply disruptions [2] - The overall sentiment in the zinc market is bearish due to weak terminal consumption and macroeconomic factors, suggesting a further decline in zinc prices [2]

ccmn锌市分析：今日国内现货锌价小涨。 今日沪期锌走势：今日沪期锌早盘冲高回落，午后偏弱震荡；沪锌2603主力合约开盘价24975元/吨，最 高价25240元/吨，最低价24615元/吨，昨日结算价25160元/吨，今日收盘价24960元/吨，跌200元，跌幅 0.79%。今日沪锌2603主力合约成交量315836手减少130181手，持仓量82291手减少8917手。伦锌北京 时间14：51最新价报3342.5美元，涨24.5美元。 今日ccmn锌价统计：今日ccmn长江综合0#锌价报25010-25110元/吨，均价25060元，涨80元，1#锌价报 24930-25030元/吨，均价24980元，涨80元；广东现货0#锌报24780-25080元/吨，均价24930元，涨70 元，1#锌价24710-25010元/吨，均价24860元，涨70元。今日现货锌市场报价0#锌在25000-25110元/吨之 间，1#锌在24930-25030元/吨之间。对比沪期锌2602合约0#锌贴水90-升水20元/吨，1#锌贴水160-贴水 60元/吨。对比沪期锌2603合约0#锌贴水95-升水15元/吨，1#锌贴水1 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a significant decline in zinc prices due to market sentiment shifts influenced by external factors such as stock and oil market volatility, as well as macroeconomic developments in the U.S. [1][2] - London zinc prices fell by 2.4%, closing at $3,370 per ton, with a trading volume of 19,234 lots, reflecting a decrease in market activity [1] - Domestic zinc consumption is weak as the Chinese New Year approaches, with some zinc mines undergoing maintenance, leading to tight supply conditions [2] Group 2 - The nomination of Kevin Walsh, known for his hawkish stance, to replace Jerome Powell as the Federal Reserve Chair has raised concerns about tighter monetary policy, impacting market liquidity and leading to a sell-off in the non-ferrous metals market [2] - Despite a decrease in zinc ingot inventory to 65,200 tons, indicating resilient consumption, the operating rates in the downstream galvanizing industry have significantly declined [2] - The overall supply-demand fundamentals for zinc remain stable, but the market is experiencing high capital congestion, suggesting a need for short-term adjustments [2]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic zinc market has experienced an upward trend in prices, driven by macroeconomic factors and increased trading activity in related metals [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai zinc futures contract (2603) opened at 24,715 CNY/ton, reaching a high of 24,880 CNY/ton and closing at 24,725 CNY/ton, reflecting an increase of 160 CNY or 0.65% [1]. - The trading volume for the Shanghai zinc contract was 207,921 lots, an increase of 34,645 lots, while open interest rose by 1,507 lots to 121,627 lots [1]. - The latest price for London zinc was reported at 3,292.5 USD, up by 23.5 USD [1]. Group 2: Price Statistics - The ccmn comprehensive zinc price for 0 zinc was reported at 24,670-24,770 CNY/ton, with an average of 24,720 CNY, an increase of 70 CNY [1]. - The 1 zinc price ranged from 24,590 to 24,690 CNY/ton, averaging 24,640 CNY, also up by 70 CNY [1]. - In Guangdong, the 0 zinc price was reported at 24,440-24,740 CNY/ton, averaging 24,590 CNY, an increase of 100 CNY [1]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global zinc market deficit widened from 2,800 tons in October to 7,700 tons in November, according to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) [3]. - Domestic zinc supply is affected by winter production halts in northern mines, although the recent recovery in import zinc concentrate margins has reopened import windows [3]. - The overall trading atmosphere in the domestic market is stable, with a slight increase in transaction volumes, although demand remains cautious due to seasonal weather conditions [3].

基本面方面，1月21日消息，国际铅锌研究组织（ILZSG）数据显示，11月全球锌市场缺口从10月的 2800吨扩大至7700吨。国内方面，当前北方部分锌矿仍处于冬季停产状态，不过近期进口锌精矿亏损大 幅收窄并转为正值，矿进口窗口在时隔半年后重新开启。另外，目前冶炼厂不含硫酸和副产品的亏损扩 大，12月国内冶炼厂减产规模进一步扩大。随着国内冶炼厂减产以及进口锌精矿比价的修复，国内锌精 矿市场供需情绪近期有所回暖。但目前国产锌精矿加工费仅暂时止跌，尚未出现实质性反弹。消费端， 环保预警解除后，前期受限企业恢复生产，然而北方天气已进入严寒阶段，终端采购积极性不高，企业 对后续需求及春节前补货备库持谨慎态度，这在一定程度上限制了锌价上方空间。 整体来看，期市氛围回暖、周边品种普涨对锌价形成提振，且沪锌社库小幅去化提供了支撑，短期锌价 将呈现偏强震荡态势，今日现锌价格或上涨。 （长江有色金属网cjys.cn研发团队 0592-5668838） 【ccmn.cn摘要】锡镍领涨带动有色市场，隔周伦锌随板块收涨 1.11%；期市氛围回暖、周边品种普涨 提振锌价，且沪锌社库小幅去化提供支撑，今现锌或上涨。 【ccmn.cn锌期 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] 2. Core View - Zinc prices have declined, and there is restocking in the spot market, but social inventories are increasing and are about to exceed the five - year average. Spot liquidity has improved, and procurement remains cautious. - The TC of domestic and imported zinc ores continues to rise, smelting profits are increasing, and the supply is expected to increase. - The pressure on the supply side is prominent, and domestic inventory accumulation is expected to continue even during the peak consumption season. If the peak - season consumption expectations are not met, zinc prices will face significant pressure [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Market - LME zinc spot premium is -$43.57 per ton. - SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 24,210 yuan/ton, with a premium of 55 yuan/ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 24,200 yuan/ton, with a premium of 15 yuan/ton; Tianjin zinc spot price is 24,140 yuan/ton, with a premium of -15 yuan/ton [1] Futures Market - On January 21, 2026, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 24,300 yuan/ton and closed at 24,350 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 146,086 lots, and the open interest was 121,693 lots. The highest price was 24,390 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 24,070 yuan/ton [2] Inventory - As of January 21, 2026, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 122,000 tons, an increase of 3,500 tons from the previous period. - As of January 21, 2026, LME zinc inventory was 111,850 tons, a decrease of 450 tons from the previous trading day [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry in China [6]. Core Views - The report emphasizes the strategic opportunities in industrial metals, suggesting a focus on this sector as the global trend of de-globalization deepens and the technological attributes of strategic metals increase. With copper prices approaching 100,000, it is seen as a favorable time for strategic allocation in industrial metals [9][14]. - The zinc sector is highlighted as an overlooked basic material in the context of de-globalization, with improving supply-demand dynamics expected to drive prices higher. The report notes that the recent decline in zinc smelting fees indicates ongoing supply tightness, and there is optimism regarding demand from re-industrialization in Asia, Africa, and Latin America [9][14]. - The copper sector is viewed positively, with short-term price fluctuations not affecting the upward trend in equities. The report anticipates improvements in copper prices and smelting fees due to supply constraints and upcoming mine restarts [9][15]. - The aluminum sector is expected to benefit from geopolitical concerns, with China's electrolytic aluminum industry poised to enjoy valuation premiums due to its supply chain security and competitive advantages [9][16]. Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - The report suggests focusing on industrial metals as the market sentiment cools, with potential investment opportunities emerging [9][14]. - Zinc is identified as a critical material with a positive outlook due to supply-demand improvements and infrastructure needs in developing regions [9][14]. - Copper is expected to see price stability and profit improvements for smelting companies as major mines plan to resume operations [9][15]. - Aluminum is projected to experience steady growth in profitability, supported by supply chain advantages and rising demand for aluminum as a substitute for copper [9][16]. Steel Industry - The steel sector is currently facing a weak fundamental backdrop as it approaches the seasonal low around the Spring Festival, with expectations for policy measures to support the industry [17]. - Steel production has seen a slight decrease, with rebar consumption increasing by 8.79% week-on-week, indicating a marginal strengthening in demand [22][17]. - Inventory levels show a divergence between social and steel mill stocks, with total steel inventory slightly increasing [24]. - Steel prices have generally seen a minor increase, with the overall price index rising by 0.15% [36]. New Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate production in December 2025 saw a significant year-on-year increase of 69.09%, indicating strong supply growth in the new energy sector [40]. - The demand for new energy vehicles remains robust, with production and sales showing substantial year-on-year growth [44]. - Prices for lithium and cobalt have risen, reflecting the increasing demand and supply dynamics in the new energy metals market [49][50].