国内方面，财政部、税务总局发布公告，自2026年4月1日起取消光伏等产品的增值税出口退税。此举有 助于推动国外市场价格回归理性，降低我国面临的贸易摩擦风险，还能缓解国家财政负担，促进财政资 源更合理高效配置，进而提振市场情绪。 【ccmn.cn摘要】股油双涨提振风险偏好，隔周伦锌收涨0.57%；全球人工智能产业狂飙、宏观主导市场 情绪高涨，春节前下游存备货计划，锌需求预期将增加，今现锌或上涨。 【ccmn.cn锌期货市场】隔周伦锌偏强震荡，开盘报3131美元/吨，高点报3165美元，低点报3126.5美 元，尾盘收于3149美元，涨18美元，涨幅0.57%；成交量11232手减少3977手，持仓量233651手增加861 手。周五晚间沪锌高开后窄幅震荡，主力2602合约最新收盘价报23965元/吨，涨85元，涨幅0.36%。 长江锌业网（pb.ccmn.cn）今日现货锌价行情预估：股油双涨提振风险偏好，隔周伦锌收涨0.57%，收 报3149美元/吨； 宏观层面，周五美国劳工部公布数据显示，美国12月就业增长放缓幅度超预期，但失业率下降，这为美 联储本月维持利率不变提供了预期支撑。上周五，美股标普500指数创收 ...

强弱分析：中性偏强 国内库存小幅累库 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 日期：2026年01月11日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 锌：强宏观定价，价格易涨难跌 锌产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属组 季先飞 （首席分析师/联席行政负责人） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 镀锌开工回升 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 第 2 页 资料来源：SMM、钢联、同花顺、Bloomberg、国泰君安期货研究所 ◆ 供应侧扰动增加。周中澳大利亚Mount Isa矿传出暴雨导致铁路运输线暂停消息，引 发市场对海外锌矿供应收紧担忧，若铁路维修过慢，或影响锌矿供给；当下国产矿加 工费集中在800-1500/金属吨，下方调整空间相对有限。同时进口窗口已打开，进口 锌精矿报盘30-50美元/干吨，锌矿原料库存预计回升。 ◆ 需求侧季节性淡季。镀锌、氧化锌、压铸锌合金节后订单 ...

新能源及有色金属月报 | 2026-01-04 核心观点 锌精矿 12月份国产锌矿TC下滑550元/吨至1500元/吨；进口锌矿加工费指数从61.25美元/吨降至43.75美元/吨。虽然随着海 外锌锭集中交仓内外比价收敛，使得锌矿进口窗口打开，但冶炼厂存在冬储需求，采购需求不减，锌矿TC仍然不 改下跌趋势，目前对1月份的价格谈判仍在进行中，预计仍有小幅下滑的可能。 TC不改下滑趋势锌价估值偏低 策略摘要 成本方面，国产矿进入季节性停产周期，虽然随着海外集中交仓内外比价的回归，使得矿端进口窗口打开，但整 体依旧不改矿端TC下滑的趋势，冶炼厂在经历冬储采购后，原料库存储备有所提高，但可用天数并不高，采购积 极性依旧不减，短期难以看到TC上涨趋势，预计仍有小幅下降空间。冶炼利润方面，虽然锌价、硫酸及白银价格 持续走强，但受限于TC持续回落，综合冶炼依旧面临亏损。供给端，12月供给同比增速已经下滑至5%，1月份产 量仍存在不及预期的可能性，供给端压力缓解，当前市场已经出现火烧云产品，后期供应端主要关注火烧云投产 速度。消费方面，消费淡季表现出韧性，高频数据并未出现下滑，出口窗口关闭之后社会库存重心依旧在回落， 出口依 ...

宏观层面，周四圣诞假期致使市场活跃度降低，美元指数下跌、股市集体收涨与油价下跌等多空因素并 存，市场风险偏好氛围飘忽不定。同时，市场对美联储领导层更迭保持谨慎。特朗普计划于2026年初宣 布下任美联储主席提名人选，以接替即将卸任的鲍威尔，期望新主席能推动更多降息。尽管降息利好风 险资产，但过程充满不确定性，资金因此选择谨慎操作，且受假期影响，资金倾向于高位获利了结，锌 价承压下行。 基本面，进口锌精矿加工费持续下跌，国内锌精矿加工费也快速下行、区域价差拉大，多数地区供应紧 张，矿山复产进度迟缓，国内冬储货源短缺。锌矿加工费快速下滑增加了冶炼厂生产压力，凸显当前供 应收缩预期较强。不过，年末市场对后续走向存忧、现货市场年底关账商家增多，贸易商以出货为主， 主力月升水小幅下调，下游采购意愿弱致现货成交差。 综合分析，宏观氛围平淡且美元走弱限制了锌价跌幅，但国内年末效应凸显，下游备货意愿一般，镀锌 消费疲软、合金消费尚有韧性，原料采购谨慎，短期基本面驱动力不足，且海外处于圣诞休市期，预计 锌价将延续区间震荡态势，今日现锌价格或下跌。 （长江有色金属网cjys.cn研发团队 0592-5668838） 新浪合作大平台 ...

年度报告—锌 渊龙寻底，待势而升 | [T走ab势le_评R级ank：] | | 锌：看涨 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 | 年 | 12 | 月 | 24 | 日 | [★Ta矿bl冶e_平Su衡mmary] 26 年全球锌矿产量增速下滑，增量主要集中在国内，海外增量主 要在于非标矿，进口矿增量集中在俄罗斯、南非和伊朗等地区， 而内弱外强格局维持，锌矿进口或将受到比价压制。海外炼厂存 在复产预期，但矿增量难以满足国内外冶炼产能的共同释放，即 矿端最宽松的阶段或已过去。26 年矿冶平衡将有所收紧，相较于 25 年，TC 运行中枢或更低，锌价运行中枢或将更高。 ★锌锭平衡 有 色 金 属 26 年国内炼厂有望继续释放产能，海外炼厂复产空间将受到低价 长单和原料供应充裕程度的限制。内需方面，预计基建领域能够 继续托底需求，主要是十五五首年的政策托底预期和 2H25 固定 资产投资的低基数表现；耐消需求将整体承压，主要是受到需求 前置释放和政策效应边际递减的影响，内需增速较 25 年有一定 下滑。新兴市场提供 ...

长江锌业网（pb.ccmn.cn）今日现货锌价行情预估：国际油价跌幅扩大与全球股市低迷共振施压，隔夜 伦锌三连跌1.94%，收报3035美元/吨； 宏观层面，周二美国劳工部公布的数据显示，11月美国非农就业增长强于预期，但失业率上升至 4.6%，且新增岗位主要集中在医疗保健等非周期性行业。行业分析师认为，报告数据内部分化，暗示 经济周期性动能依然有限，市场预计美联储短期内对进一步降息将持谨慎态度。隔夜美国股市全线下挫 打压市场风险偏好，锌价承压下调。 基本面方面，国内11月锌精矿产量为31.14万吨，较10月减少1.94万吨。北方部分矿山已进入冬季减产阶 段，国产矿供应持续收紧。同时，内外比价不佳导致锌矿进口亏损较大，进口量缩减。11月后，冶炼厂 有原料备货需求，对国产矿抢购情绪高涨，推动锌矿加工费快速下调。截至上周，国产锌矿加工费降至 1600元/金属吨，进口矿加工费也有所回落，降至50.56美元/干吨。考虑到国产矿处于季节性淡季，预计 明年一季度前矿端整体供应将偏紧。截至11月底，冶炼厂原料库存降至37.7万金属吨，库存可用天数为 20.8天，较前几个月明显下滑。此外，国内锌锭库存持续下降，上期所数据显示 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-19 国内库存去库趋势不改 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为-21.57美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日变化110元/吨至23130元/吨，SMM 上海锌现货升贴水110元/吨；SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日90元/吨至23020元/吨，广东锌现货升贴水-15元/吨； 天津锌现货价较前一交易日90元/吨至23030元/吨，天津锌现货升贴水10元/吨。 期货方面：2025-12-18沪锌主力合约开于23000元/吨，收于23030元/吨，较前一交易日120元/吨，全天交易日成交 92275手，全天交易日持仓52902手，日内价格最高点达到23105元/吨，最低点达到22965元/吨。 库存方面：截至2025-12-18，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为12.22万吨，较上期变化-0.35万吨。截止2025-12-18，LME 锌库存为99400吨，较上一交易日变化1700吨。 市场分析 下游刚需采购，现货升贴水继续修复，国内消费存在韧性，社会库存重心持续下滑。海外库存激增升水转为贴水， 中国锌锭出口窗口关闭，但集中交货预计难以持续，库存绝对值依旧偏低。矿端TC持续 ...

12月16日，国内期市有色金属板块大面积飘绿。其中，沪锌期货主力合约开盘报23310.00元/吨，今日 盘中低位震荡运行；截至发稿，沪锌主力最高触及23345.00元，下方探低22935.00元，跌幅达1.82%附 近。 五矿期货指出，锌矿显性库存去库，锌精矿TC延续下行。国内锌锭社会库存去库，LME锌锭库存缓慢 累库，沪伦比值小幅上行。当前沪伦比值水平下国内仍有元素缺口，叠加锌冶炼企业出现减产，国内现 货端边际收紧。11日凌晨联储议息会议超预期鸽派并重启扩表，推动贵金属及有色金属加速上行。但点 阵图仅定价明年存在1次25bps的降息，在明年3月18日前美联储货币政策刺激力度相对有限。有色金属 情绪退潮后，沪锌或将回吐部分涨幅。 目前来看，沪锌行情呈现震荡下行走势，盘面表现偏弱。对于沪锌后市行情将如何运行，相关机构观点 汇总如下： 中财期货分析称，宏观方面，美联储如期降息且会后发言以及点阵图对外释放鸽派信号，预计26年仍处 宽松周期内。产业来看，锌矿紧缺背景下，国内锌精矿加工费跌势持续。海外进口锌精矿短期报盘纷 乱，但整体报价重心持续下滑。12月原料紧缺问题再度放大，企业主动减产控产增多，预计精炼锌产量 环比 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report In October, zinc prices declined and then rebounded. The industry's focus was on the short squeeze of LME zinc and domestic zinc smelting production cuts. The registered warehouse receipts of LME zinc ingots reached a new low in recent years, and the high LME zinc spread opened the domestic zinc ingot export window. With the decrease in imported zinc ore and the increase in domestic zinc smelting winter stockpiling demand, the zinc ore TC declined, and the zinc smelting profit decreased, leading to a slowdown in zinc ingot supply growth. The downstream demand remained generally stable, and the total domestic zinc ingot inventory gradually increased. The major short positions in the previous main contract of SHFE zinc significantly reduced, and some turned into net long positions. The registered warehouse receipts of LME zinc slightly increased, alleviating the overseas structural risk. Considering the recent macro - events and the positive sentiment in the commodity market, SHFE zinc is expected to be strong in the short term, but the upside space for zinc prices is limited during the surplus cycle [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment - **Price Review**: In October, zinc prices declined and then rebounded. The LME zinc registered warehouse receipts hit a new low of 22,900 tons in recent years, and the high LME zinc spread opened the domestic zinc ingot export window. As of November 6, the SHFE zinc index rose 0.10% to 22,691 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 225,700 lots. The LME zinc 3S fell 16 to $3,054.5/ton, with a total position of 228,600 lots. The average price of SMM 0 zinc ingot was 22,500 yuan/ton [11]. - **Domestic Structure**: The domestic social inventory slightly decreased to 158,700 tons, and the SHFE zinc futures inventory was 68,000 tons. The basis in Shanghai was - 55 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - month contract was - 45 yuan/ton. The LME zinc inventory was 34,000 tons, and the cancelled warehouse receipts were 4,300 tons. The basis of the cash - 3S contract was $98.23/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was $53.2/ton. The ex - exchange rate SHFE - LME ratio was 1.046, and the zinc ingot import loss was 4,211.76 yuan/ton [11]. - **Industry Data**: The domestic TC of zinc concentrate was 2,850 yuan/metal ton, and the imported TC index was 103 dollars/dry ton. The port inventory of zinc concentrate was 248,000 physical tons, and the factory inventory was 616,000 physical tons. The weekly operating rates of galvanized structural parts, die - cast zinc alloys, and zinc oxide were 57.54%, 52.50%, and 58.19% respectively [11]. - **Outlook**: The domestic zinc ore inventory continued to decline, the zinc concentrate processing fee dropped again, and the domestic zinc smelting profit decreased, resulting in a decline in monthly zinc ingot production. With downstream demand remaining stable, the total domestic zinc ingot inventory slowly increased. SHFE zinc is expected to be strong in the short term, but the upside space is limited [11]. 3.2 Macro Analysis The report presents multiple charts related to the US fiscal and debt situation, the Fed's balance sheet, dollar liquidity, manufacturing PMIs of China and the US, and manufacturing new and unfinished orders in the US, but no specific analysis conclusions are provided [14][16][19][20]. 3.3 Supply Analysis - **Zinc Ore Supply**: In September 2025, the domestic zinc ore production was 314,500 metal tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.0% and a month - on - month decrease of 8.8%. From January to September, the cumulative zinc ore production was 2,739,800 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 3.5%. The net import of zinc ore in September was 505,400 dry tons, a year - on - year increase of 25.2% and a month - on - month increase of 8.6%. From January to September, the cumulative net import of zinc ore was 4,000,600 dry tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 41.0%. The total domestic zinc ore supply in September was 541,900 metal tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.0% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.2%. From January to September, the cumulative domestic zinc ore supply was 4,540,100 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 10.3% [25][27]. - **Zinc Ingot Supply**: In October 2025, the zinc ingot production was 617,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 21.4% and a month - on - month increase of 2.8%. From January to October, the cumulative zinc ingot production was 5,686,300 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 10.1%. The net import of zinc ingot in September was 23,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 58.1% and a month - on - month decrease of 16.2%. From January to September, the cumulative net import of zinc ingot was 267,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 21.1%. The total domestic zinc ingot supply in September was 623,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.3% and a month - on - month decrease of 4.7%. From January to September, the cumulative domestic zinc ingot supply was 5,336,800 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.8% [33][35]. 3.4 Demand Analysis - **Initial - stage Demand**: The weekly operating rates of galvanized structural parts, die - cast zinc alloys, and zinc oxide were 57.48%, 53.13%, and 56.36% respectively. The raw material inventories were 13,000 tons, 13,000 tons, and 3,000 tons respectively, and the finished product inventories were 370,000 tons, 10,000 tons, and 5,000 tons respectively [39]. - **Apparent Demand**: In September 2025, the domestic zinc ingot apparent demand was 622,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.9% and a month - on - month increase of 3.9%. From January to September, the cumulative domestic zinc ingot apparent demand was 5,193,600 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.7% [41]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory - **Domestic Balance**: In September 2025, the domestic zinc ingot supply - demand difference was a surplus of 500 tons. From January to September, the cumulative domestic zinc ingot supply - demand difference was a surplus of 143,200 tons [52]. - **Overseas Balance**: In July 2025, the overseas refined zinc supply - demand difference was a surplus of 3,000 tons. From January to July, the cumulative overseas refined zinc supply - demand difference was a surplus of 28,200 tons [55]. 3.6 Price Outlook - **Domestic Structure**: The domestic social inventory slightly decreased to 161,500 tons. The SHFE zinc futures inventory was 67,800 tons. The basis in Shanghai was - 30 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - month contract was - 5 yuan/ton [60]. - **Overseas Structure**: The LME zinc inventory was 34,900 tons, and the cancelled warehouse receipts were 6,100 tons. The basis of the cash - 3S contract was $96.02/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was $46.49/ton [63]. - **Cross - market Structure**: The ex - exchange rate SHFE - LME ratio was 1.04, and the zinc ingot import loss was 4,272.74 yuan/ton [64]. - **Position Analysis**: The net position of the top 20 holders of SHFE zinc turned net long, the net long position of LME zinc investment funds increased, and the net short position of commercial enterprises decreased, indicating a short - term bullish sentiment from the position perspective [67].

Core Viewpoint - Hunan Province's Huayuan County is transitioning from a "Manganese Triangle" to a "Green Triangle" through effective measures aimed at ecological transformation and sustainable development [2][3][4] Group 1: Government Initiatives - The Hunan Provincial Party Secretary and Governor have conducted multiple inspections in Huayuan County to guide environmental pollution control and ecological restoration efforts [2] - Local leaders are actively involved in on-site remediation efforts to ensure effective results in environmental governance [2] Group 2: Industrial Transformation - Huayuan County has consolidated four manganese mining companies into one and reduced five electrolytic manganese smelting companies to one, leading to the dismantling of 1,598 acres of abandoned structures [3] - The county has achieved significant land reclamation, with over 21,800 acres of land restored and 15.7 kilometers of roads greened [3] - The implementation of land use policies has generated 1.35 billion yuan in revenue from land indicator trading [3] Group 3: Ecological Restoration - The county is committed to a "waste-to-resource" approach, focusing on the technological remediation of tailings and mining waste [4] - Huayuan County has been recognized as a pilot county for green development in the mining sector and has successfully removed its designation as a key safety production county for non-coal mines [4] - The local tourism sector has seen a boost, with significant visitor numbers reported during the National Day holiday, indicating a positive impact from ecological improvements [4]