Group 1 - The metal zinc sector experienced a decline of 1.74%, ranking among the top losers in the concept sector, with *ST Zhengping hitting the limit down, and Zhejiang Fu Holdings, Huaxi Nonferrous, and Hunan Gold also showing significant declines [1] - The main funds in the metal zinc sector saw a net outflow of 955 million yuan, with 29 stocks experiencing net outflows, and 6 stocks seeing outflows exceeding 50 million yuan [2] - The stock with the highest net outflow was Xingye Yinxin, with a net outflow of 131 million yuan, followed by Zhejiang Fu Holdings, Huayu Mining, and Hunan Silver, with net outflows of 123 million yuan, 81.92 million yuan, and 78.92 million yuan respectively [2] Group 2 - The top gainers in the market included PCB concept (+4.33%), military equipment restructuring concept (+4.08%), and PET copper foil (+4.03%), while the coal concept and metal zinc were among the top losers [2] - The net inflow of main funds was observed in stocks such as Zijin Mining, Hongda Co., and Western Mining, with net inflows of 47.60 million yuan, 24.09 million yuan, and 17.70 million yuan respectively [2][3] - The trading volume and turnover rates varied among the stocks, with notable outflows from stocks like Xingye Yinxin (-2.67%, turnover rate 3.41%) and Zhejiang Fu Holdings (-6.00%, turnover rate 9.02%) [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is influenced by various factors including geopolitical events, economic data, and supply - demand dynamics in different industries. For example, the potential change in the 20% tariff on Chinese goods due to the fentanyl issue between the US and China is worth attention [7]. - Different commodities have different trends. Some are expected to rise, some to fall, and some to move within a range. For instance, gold is expected to oscillate upward, while tin's price is weakening [14][35]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fentanyl Issue - Trump believes China will soon sentence fentanyl traffickers to death and is optimistic about reaching an agreement on illegal drugs with China. However, the Chinese Foreign Ministry stated that the fentanyl problem is the US's own issue, and the US's imposition of tariffs on fentanyl has damaged Sino - US cooperation in the anti - drug field. The 20% tariff on Chinese goods due to the fentanyl issue remains in effect, and whether it will change is worthy of attention [7]. 3.2 Commodity Recommendations by the Director - **Bean Meal**: Since mid - July, the domestic bean meal futures have stopped falling earlier than US soybeans and broken through the technical resistance level. The reasons are the strong sentiment in the domestic commodity market and the low - valuation advantage of bean meal. Although the short - term fundamentals are weak, there are no additional negative impacts. Once the US soybean price recovers, the bean meal price will break through. After the current rally, there is a risk of a pullback, and attention should be paid to the fundamentals such as the trade agreement, US soybean weather, and the August USDA report [8][9]. - **Caustic Soda**: In the short term, the supply and demand of the caustic soda market have not changed much, with sufficient supply and increased shipments to major downstream industries. The spot has no upward momentum, and the futures have been weak in the past two days. In July, the maintenance capacity of caustic soda has decreased significantly compared to June, and new capacity of 1.1 million tons may be added in July - August. The new capacity pressure is basically digested by exports. The demand is in the off - season, but the cost is strongly supported by the weak liquid chlorine. It is recommended to participate in the 10 - 1 spread arbitrage [11]. 3.3 Commodity Research Morning Report - **Precious Metals**: Gold is expected to oscillate upward, and silver is expected to break through and rise. The trend intensity of both is 1 [14][18][23]. - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: The good US economic data supports the copper price. The trend intensity is 0 [14][26][29]. - **Zinc**: It is expected to move within a range, with a trend intensity of 0 [14][30]. - **Lead**: The downside may be limited, with a trend intensity of 0 [14][32][33]. - **Tin**: The price is weakening, with a trend intensity of - 1 [14][35][39]. - **Aluminum**: Attention should be paid to the marginal change in inventory. The trend intensity is 0. Alumina is expected to oscillate strongly with a trend intensity of 1, and cast aluminum alloy is weaker than electrolytic aluminum with a trend intensity of 0 [14][40][42]. - **Nickel**: The news affects market sentiment, and the fundamentals are under pressure. The trend intensity is 0. Stainless steel is in a game between reality and macro factors, and the steel price oscillates. The trend intensity is 0 [14][43][47]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Carbonate Lithium**: Supply - side disturbances have emerged again, and the short - term trend may be strong. The trend intensity is 1 [14][48][50]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Warehouse receipts are accumulating, and attention should be paid to market sentiment. The trend intensity is 0. Polysilicon's futures may rise and then fall, with a trend intensity of 0 [14][51][55]. - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macro expectations, it oscillates strongly. The trend intensity is 0 [14][56]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The market sentiment remains strong, and they oscillate widely. The trend intensity of both is 1 [14][59][61]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicide**: The steel procurement sentiment remains strong, and they oscillate widely. The trend intensity of both is 0 [14][63][65]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coke has completed the first round of price increase and oscillates widely. The trend intensity is 0. Coking coal oscillates widely, and the trend intensity is 1 [14][66][68]. - **Steam Coal**: The daily consumption is recovering, and it oscillates and stabilizes. The trend intensity is 0 [14][70][73]. - **Log**: It oscillates widely [74].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - Overseas mine production is increasing smoothly, with expected growth of 40 - 50 tons in H2 and 5 tons from domestic mines, leading to a global zinc ore surplus of over 20 tons [5]. - Smelting losses have rapidly recovered, and overall smelting profits are expanding, with expected supply growth of around 15% in H2 and 7.4% for the whole year [4][5]. - Consumption was strong in H1, with an expected annual growth rate of 1.2%. However, the consumption intensity is still difficult to match the supply growth rate [4]. - Inventory is at a historical low, with apparent consumption stronger than actual consumption. As zinc alloy inventory increases and supply pressure grows, a negative feedback loop is expected [4][6]. - The strategy is to short and wait for the accumulation of social inventory [8]. Summary Based on Directory Zinc Ore - Overseas mainstream zinc mines are increasing production normally, and the year - on - year growth is expected to accelerate. In Q1, overseas mine production was 114 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5 tons (4.5%). In H2, overseas production is expected to increase by 40 - 50 tons year - on - year [11]. - Domestic zinc mines contribute limited incremental output, with an expected annual increase of only 5 tons [11]. - From January to May, domestic zinc ore production was 139.8 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5 tons, but the production rate and output are rising. From January to May, imported zinc ore was 220.4 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 52.5% [12]. Refined Zinc - During the off - season, the spot premium is weakening, indicating supply pressure. From January to June, China's refined zinc production was 324 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of only 1.9%. In July, the estimated output is 59 tons, with a possible year - on - year growth rate of 20%. The expected annual output for 2025 is 665 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.4% [31]. - Smelting losses have been rapidly repaired, and the rise in by - product prices has further expanded smelting profits. The industry - weighted smelting profit can reach 1,300 yuan/ton, increasing smelting enthusiasm [44]. - Zinc ingot inventory is at a low level, but there is a possibility of invisible inventory becoming visible. As supply growth is expected to remain around 15% in H2, a trend of inventory accumulation is expected during the off - season [47]. Downstream Consumption - Exports are driving galvanized consumption. From January to May, China's galvanized strip net exports were 547.4 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 14.7%. Although there may be some consumption overdraft, there is no need to be overly pessimistic about overseas consumption [52]. - Zinc alloy integration is hiding visible inventory. While zinc consumption has shown positive growth, it is still difficult to match the supply growth rate. As consumption weakens during the off - season, a negative feedback loop is expected, and the invisible inventory of zinc alloy will turn into visible inventory [59]. Terminal Consumption - Infrastructure investment is supporting consumption. From January to May, China's fixed - asset investment increased by 3.7% year - on - year, and infrastructure investment increased by 10.4% year - on - year, with power grid investment increasing by 19.8% year - on - year, driving the demand for domestic galvanized towers [7][62]. - The automotive industry has consumption pre - empted. From January to May, China's automobile production increased by 12.7% year - on - year, but the channel inventory increased from 2.26 million to 2.59 million, indicating possible consumption pre - empted [7]. - The photovoltaic sector may see marginal improvement. From January to May, China's photovoltaic installed capacity was 198GW, a year - on - year increase of 1.5 times. Although the current consumption is at its lowest, there is a possibility of marginal repair in the later period [7]. - The home appliance sector has over - consumed. State subsidies in H1 drove home appliance and automobile consumption, but there is an issue of over - consumption [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Oscillating weakly. Arbitrage: Neutral [4] Report's Core View - Zinc alloy开工率下滑，隐性库存负反馈可能发生，锌锭社会库存小幅增长；TC整体稳定，海外锌矿发运量提升，供给压力不改；消费边际下滑，现货升水大幅回落，锌价上涨缺乏基本面驱动力，社会库存持续增加将形成较大向下压力 [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data - As of June 20, 2025, the LME zinc price increased by 0.57% to $2,625 per ton compared to last week, and the SHFE zinc main contract increased by 0.14% to 21,845 yuan per ton. The LME zinc spot premium (0 - 3) changed from -$22.95 per ton last week to -$24.65 per ton [1] - As of the week ending June 20, the weekly processing fee for domestic zinc concentrates by SMM remained stable at 3,600 yuan per metal ton compared to last week, and the weekly processing fee index for imported zinc concentrates increased by $2 per ton to $55 per ton. Recent zinc ore tender results in North China were 5,500 yuan per ton, a decrease of 200 yuan per ton compared to the previous period, and the New century zinc ore tender result was $40 per dry ton. The zinc ore import window remained closed, but overseas zinc ore departure data increased [1] - Specifically, the operating rate of galvanizing enterprises decreased by 1.46% to 58.6% compared to last week, the operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises decreased by 4.72% to 55.12%, and the operating rate of zinc oxide enterprises increased by 0.08% to 59% [1] - According to SMM statistics, as of June 19, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven major areas monitored by SMM was 79,600 tons, an increase of 2,500 tons compared to the same period last week; the warrant inventory decreased by 229 tons to 8,743 tons compared to the same period last week; the LME zinc inventory decreased by 4,775 tons to 126,225 tons compared to last week [1] Profit - As of June 19, 2025, the production profit of smelting enterprises in the industry (excluding by - product income) was -500 yuan per ton, and the profit was about 1,000 yuan per ton after adding by - product income [2] Market Analysis - The operating rate of zinc alloy decreased significantly last week, and a negative feedback of hidden inventory may occur, with a slight increase in the social inventory of zinc ingots. The TC remained stable overall, and the overseas zinc ore shipment volume continued to increase. Although the room for further increase was limited, the strong trend remained unchanged. There was still smelting profit at the current TC price, and the smelting enthusiasm was high, so the supply pressure remained. The overall consumption showed a marginal downward trend, the spot premium dropped significantly, and there was a lack of fundamental driving force for the zinc price to rise. If the social inventory continued to increase, it would exert significant downward pressure [3] Strategy - Unilateral strategy: Oscillating weakly. Arbitrage strategy: Neutral [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Lithium Carbonate - The recent market sentiment is stable, and the market is mainly in a state of shock. However, there is a lack of actual positive news, and the short - term fundamentals still face pressure. In June, due to the boost in processing output and the increase in lithium extraction from some spodumene, the balance may be in surplus. The short - term market is expected to operate in a weak range, but the profit - to - risk ratio of short - selling is weakening, and the main contract is expected to operate between 56,000 - 62,000 yuan [1]. Nickel - Recently, the macro situation is temporarily stable, but the sentiment in the spot market is low. The cost support for refined nickel has slightly weakened, and the medium - term supply remains loose, restricting the upside space. The short - term fundamentals change little, and the market is expected to adjust through weak - range shock, with the main contract referring to 118,000 - 124,000 yuan [2]. Stainless Steel - The fundamentals remain weak. The ore end provides some price support, the negotiation range of nickel - iron prices has moved down, the stainless - steel production remains high, and the demand is weak with slow inventory reduction. In the short - term, there is still pressure on the fundamentals due to the supply - demand contradiction. The market is expected to operate weakly, with the main contract operating between 12,400 - 13,000 yuan [5]. Tin - The supply - side recovery is slow. In the short - term, tin prices are expected to be strong and fluctuate. However, considering the pessimistic demand outlook, it is advisable to short at around 260,000 - 265,000 yuan based on the inflection points of inventory and import data [7]. Aluminum - For aluminum, the short - term upper limit is around 20,500 yuan, and the price is expected to be around 20,000 yuan with a fluctuating trend. If the actual demand weakens in the third quarter, the price may find support at 19,000 - 19,500 yuan. For alumina, if the ore - end issues do not worsen, smelters may resume production after profit recovery, and the inventory is expected to gradually increase [8]. Zinc - In the long - term, zinc is in a supply - side loosening cycle. If the growth rate of the ore end is lower than expected and the downstream consumption performs better than expected, zinc prices may remain in a high - level shock pattern. In a pessimistic scenario, zinc prices may decline. It is advisable to short at high levels in the long - term, with the main contract focusing on the support at 21,000 - 21,500 yuan [10]. Copper - Under the combination of "strong reality + weak expectation", copper prices do not have a clear and smooth trend. The strong fundamentals limit the downward movement of prices, while the weak macro - expectations restrict the upside space. In the short - term, prices are expected to fluctuate, with the main contract referring to 77,000 - 80,000 yuan [13]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 60,450 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous value; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 28,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide average price is 59,170 yuan/ton, down 0.42%; SMM industrial - grade lithium hydroxide average price is 53,170 yuan/ton, down 0.47%. The average CIF price of lithium carbonate in China, Japan, and South Korea is 8.05 US dollars/kg, unchanged [1]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2507 and 2508 is 340 yuan/ton, an increase of 180 yuan from the previous value; the spread between 2507 and 2509 is 600 yuan/ton, an increase of 240 yuan; the spread between 2507 and 2512 is 260 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan [1]. Fundamental Data - In May, lithium carbonate production was 72,080 tons, a decrease of 2.34% month - on - month; battery - grade lithium carbonate production was 51,573 tons, an increase of 2.33%; industrial - grade lithium carbonate production was 20,507 tons, a decrease of 12.41%. The demand for lithium carbonate in May was 93,938 tons, an increase of 4.81% [1]. Nickel Price and Basis - The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel is 120,325 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.42%; the price of 1 Jinchuan nickel is 121,425 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.41%. The import profit and loss of nickel futures is - 3,234 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.89% [2]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2508 and 2509 is - 180 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan; the spread between 2509 and 2510 is - 180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan; the spread between 2510 and 2511 is - 70 yuan/ton, an increase of 220 yuan [2]. Supply, Demand and Inventory - China's refined nickel production in May was 35,350 tons, a decrease of 2.62% month - on - month; the import volume of refined nickel was 8,832 tons, an increase of 8.18%. SHFE inventory decreased by 5.39% week - on - week, and social inventory decreased by 5.24% [2]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 12,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 12,800 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot - futures spread is 295 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14.49% [5]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2508 and 2509 is 10 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan; the spread between 2509 and 2510 is 50 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan; the spread between 2510 and 2511 is - 15 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan [5]. Fundamental Data - The production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China (43 enterprises) in April was 179.12 million tons, an increase of 0.36%; the production in Indonesia (Qinglong) was 36 million tons, unchanged. The import volume of stainless steel increased by 10.26%, and the export volume decreased by 4.85% [5]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - The price of SMM 1 tin is 264,400 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.04%; the price of Yangtze River 1 tin is 264,900 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.04%. The LME 0 - 3 premium is - 110 US dollars/ton, an increase of 15.38% [7]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2507 and 2508 is 10 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140 yuan; the spread between 2508 and 2509 is 190 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140 yuan; the spread between 2509 and 2510 is 300 yuan/ton, an increase of 120 yuan [7]. Fundamental Data (Monthly) - The import volume of tin ore in April was 9,861 tons, an increase of 18.48%; the production of SMM refined tin in May was 14,840 tons, a decrease of 2.37%. The import volume of refined tin in April was 1,128 tons, a decrease of 46.31% [7]. Aluminum Price and Spread - The price of SMM A00 aluminum is 20,770 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.62%; the average price of alumina in Shandong is 3,175 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.16%. The import profit and loss of aluminum is - 1,138 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan [8]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2507 and 2508 is 120 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan; the spread between 2508 and 2509 is 125 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan; the spread between 2509 and 2510 is 120 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan [8]. Fundamental Data - The production of alumina in May was 727.21 million tons, an increase of 2.66%; the production of electrolytic aluminum in May was 372.90 million tons, an increase of 3.41%. The import volume of electrolytic aluminum in April was 25.05 million tons [8]. Zinc Price and Basis - The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot is 21,990 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.95%; the import profit and loss is - 491 yuan/ton, an increase of 56.62 yuan [10]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2507 and 2508 is 185 yuan/ton, a decrease of 65 yuan; the spread between 2508 and 2509 is 130 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan; the spread between 2509 and 2510 is 85 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan [10]. Fundamental Data - The production of refined zinc in May was 54.94 million tons, a decrease of 1.08%; the import volume of refined zinc in April was 2.82 million tons, an increase of 2.40%. The export volume of refined zinc in April was 0.25 million tons, an increase of 75.76% [10]. Copper Price and Basis - The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper is 78,680 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.19%; the import profit and loss is - 1,144 yuan/ton, an increase of 254.33 yuan [13]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2507 and 2508 is 180 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan; the spread between 2508 and 2509 is 200 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan; the spread between 2509 and 2510 is 230 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan [13]. Fundamental Data - The production of electrolytic copper in May was 113.83 million tons, an increase of 1.12%; the import volume of electrolytic copper in April was 25 million tons, a decrease of 19.06%. The inventory of imported copper concentrates in domestic mainstream ports increased by 8.76% week - on - week [13].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Lithium Carbonate - Short - term market sentiment eases, and the futures market stabilizes temporarily. However, there is a lack of actual positive news, and the short - term fundamentals still face pressure. The raw material ore end is gradually loosening, and the support at the bottom is weakening. It is expected that the short - term futures market will run in a weak range, with the main contract operating between 560,000 - 620,000 yuan. [1] Nickel - Recently, the macro situation is stable, the cost support of refined nickel has slightly weakened, and the medium - term supply is still abundant, restricting the upward space. It is expected that the futures market will fluctuate within a range, with the main contract reference range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan. [4] Stainless Steel - The futures market returns to the fundamental trading logic. The ore end provides some support for prices, and the raw material nickel - iron price is weakly stable. The stainless - steel production remains high, and the demand improvement is slow. It is expected that the futures market will fluctuate weakly, with the main contract operating between 12,600 - 13,200 yuan. [7] Zinc - In the long - term, zinc is in a supply - side loosening cycle. If the ore - end growth rate is lower than expected and the downstream consumption performs better than expected, the zinc price may maintain a high - level shock pattern. Otherwise, the zinc price may decline. It is recommended to short on rallies in the long - term, with the main contract reference range of 21,000 - 23,000 yuan. [10] Alumina - In the short - term, the alumina fundamentals may turn to a relatively loose pattern, and the spot price is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the lower reference cash cost at around 2,700 yuan. [13] Aluminum - In the short - term, the low inventory and low warehouse receipts support the aluminum price, and the short - term rebound of coal - related prices also supports the cost. However, the increase in aluminum market tariffs and the pre - emptive exports have overdrawn some future demand. It is expected that the domestic aluminum price will face pressure in the future, with the lower reference at around 19,000 yuan. [13] Copper - Under the combination of "strong reality + weak expectation", there is no clear trend for the copper price. The strong fundamentals limit the downward space, and the weak macro - expectations limit the upward space. In the short - term, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly, with the main contract reference range of 77,000 - 80,000 yuan. [14] Tin - In the short - term, the tin price is expected to fluctuate strongly due to the slow supply - side recovery and the rebound driven by macro - sentiment. However, considering the pessimistic demand expectation, it is recommended to short after the sentiment stabilizes. [16] Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 60,250 yuan/ton, up 0.08% from the previous day. SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 58,600 yuan/ton, up 0.09%. SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide average price is 61,700 yuan/ton, down 0.68%. SMM industrial - grade lithium hydroxide average price is 55,700 yuan/ton, down 0.71%. [1] Fundamental Data - In May, lithium carbonate production was 72,080 tons, down 2.34% month - on - month. Battery - grade lithium carbonate production was 51,573 tons, up 2.33%. Industrial - grade lithium carbonate production was 20,507 tons, down 12.41%. Lithium carbonate demand was 93,938 tons, up 4.81%. In April, lithium carbonate imports were 28,336 tons, up 56.33%, and exports were 734 tons, up 233.72%. [1] Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel average price is 123,900 yuan/ton, up 0.41%. 1 Jinchuan nickel premium is 2,400 yuan/ton, down 2.04%. 1 imported nickel average price is 122,700 yuan/ton, up 0.33%. [4] Fundamental Data - In May, China's refined nickel production was 35,350 tons, down 2.62% month - on - month. In April, refined nickel imports were 8,832 tons, up 8.18%. SHFE inventory was 27,075 tons, up 0.45% week - on - week. Social inventory was 41,553 tons, down 1.97%. [4] Stainless Steel Price and Basis - 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price is 13,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) price is 13,050 yuan/ton, unchanged. [7] Fundamental Data - In April, China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production was 179.12 million tons, up 0.36% month - on - month. Indonesia's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production was 36.00 million tons, unchanged. Stainless - steel imports were 14.21 million tons, up 10.26%, and exports were 44.78 million tons, down 4.85%. [7] Zinc Price and Basis - SMM 0 zinc ingot average price is 22,590 yuan/ton, down 0.31%. The premium is 300 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan. [10] Fundamental Data - In May, refined zinc production was 54.94 million tons, down 1.08% month - on - month. In April, refined zinc imports were 2.82 million tons, up 2.40%, and exports were 0.25 million tons, up 75.76%. [10] Alumina Price and Basis - Alumina (Shandong) average price is 3,260 yuan/ton, unchanged. Alumina (Henan) average price is 3,302 yuan/ton, unchanged. Alumina (Shanxi) average price is 3,280 yuan/ton, down 0.15%. [13] Fundamental Data - In May, alumina production was 727.21 million tons, up 2.66% month - on - month. [13] Aluminum Price and Basis - SMM A00 aluminum average price is 20,210 yuan/ton, down 0.10%. SMM A00 aluminum premium is 80 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. [13] Fundamental Data - In May, electrolytic aluminum production was 372.90 million tons, up 3.41% month - on - month. In April, electrolytic aluminum imports were 2.8 million tons, and exports were 1.37 million tons. [13] Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper average price is 78,875 yuan/ton, unchanged. SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium is 85 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. [14] Fundamental Data - In May, electrolytic copper production was 113.83 million tons, up 1.12% month - on - month. In April, electrolytic copper imports were 25.00 million tons, down 19.06%. [14] Tin Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin average price is 263,900 yuan/ton, down 0.19%. SMM 1 tin premium is 1,200 yuan/ton, up 4.35%. [16] Fundamental Data - In April, tin ore imports were 9,861 tons, up 18.48%. In May, SMM refined tin production was 14,840 tons, down 2.37%. [16]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The zinc market is expected to maintain a basic pattern of oversupply and weak demand in the second half of 2025. Under Trump's tariff policy, the risk of a US economic recession is rising, and the oversupply at the zinc mine end may gradually spread to the zinc ingot end from June, causing the oversupply and weak demand to resonate. The Shanghai Zinc Index may decline significantly in the second half of 2025, and if there are macro risks in overseas financial markets, the zinc price may fall to around the 90% cost line of zinc mines [1][16]. Summary by Related Catalogs Review of Zinc Price Performance in the First Half of 2025 - From January 2 to May 30, 2025, the Shanghai Zinc Index fell 12.31% to 22,120 yuan/ton, and the total open interest decreased by 59,900 lots to 226,700 lots. The LME Zinc 3M contract fell 12.12% to 2,629.5 yuan/ton, and the total open interest slightly decreased to 213,700 lots [5]. - The zinc market in the first half of the year can be divided into four stages: from January 2 to February 5, the Shanghai Zinc Index showed a continuous unilateral decline; from February 6 to March 27, it showed a wide - range shock; from March 28 to April 7, it showed a continuous unilateral decline again; from April 8 to May 30, it showed a wide - range shock [5][6]. The Zinc Price Oversupply Cycle Is Not Over - Comparing three rounds of zinc oversupply cycles from the perspective of processing fees, the current domestic TC (Treatment and Refining Charges) has room to rise as its absolute value is significantly lower than the end of the previous two cycles. The current zinc supply is in the transition period from zinc mine oversupply to zinc ingot oversupply, and there is a risk of a sharp decline in zinc prices [9][10]. - As zinc prices decline, zinc smelters may jointly control production to support prices, and downstream enterprises may continue to stock up at low prices, which will resist the decline of zinc prices, but the actual impact needs to be analyzed based on subsequent production and sales data [10]. Outlook for Zinc Price Performance in the Second Half of 2025 - Macroeconomic background: After Trump was elected in 2025, global macro - economic disturbances increased, and the US has a certain risk of recession under high - tariff policies [13]. - Zinc mine supply: 2025 is the turning point of zinc mine supply. It is expected that the zinc mine supply will remain at a relatively high level in the second half of the year, but attention should be paid to the production disturbances of the US Red Dog project and other emergencies affecting large mines [13][16]. - Zinc ingot supply: The increase in TC and the strong by - product prices will push up the profits of zinc smelters. It is expected that the zinc ingot supply will remain at a relatively high level of 55 - 600,000 tons in the second half of the year [14][16]. - Downstream demand: The main primary demand for zinc ingots is concentrated in galvanized steel, and the terminal demand is concentrated in traditional sectors such as real estate and infrastructure. Currently, the demand growth is relatively limited [16]. - Overall: The zinc market is expected to maintain a pattern of oversupply and weak demand in the second half of 2025, and the Shanghai Zinc Index may decline significantly. The medium - term operating range of the Shanghai Zinc Index is expected to be 20,150 - 22,750 yuan/ton [1][16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral. [4] - Arbitrage: Neutral. [4] 2. Core Viewpoints - The Russian mine of Zijin plans to shut down in June, causing the futures price to remain strong, while the spot market is more sluggish, with imports having a large impact and spot premiums further declining. The fundamental data shows a weak trend, with TC still rising and supply pressure remaining high. The opening of the zinc ingot import window increases domestic supply pressure, and the previously low inventory that supported zinc prices shows signs of accumulation. If this trend continues, the downside space for zinc prices may open up. In the spot market, due to increased inventory and a shift towards a looser supply, the high spot premiums have significantly declined. The consumption side may face challenges in May, as the window for rush exports is approaching the end and there is an over - consumption situation, so consumption may weaken month - on - month after May. [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data Spot - LME zinc spot premium is -$27.34 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price rose by 190 yuan/ton to 22,840 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day, and the SMM Shanghai zinc spot premium dropped by 85 yuan/ton to 245 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price rose by 260 yuan/ton to 22,890 yuan/ton, and the SMM Guangdong zinc spot premium dropped by 15 yuan/ton to 295 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price rose by 220 yuan/ton to 22,840 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin zinc spot premium dropped by 55 yuan/ton to 245 yuan/ton. [1] Futures - On May 14, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,265 yuan/ton and closed at 22,710 yuan/ton, up 380 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 219,108 lots, an increase of 48,548 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 104,941 lots, a decrease of 7,094 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 22,780 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 22,160 yuan/ton. [1] Inventory - As of May 12, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 85,500 tons, an increase of 1,400 tons compared to the same period last week. As of May 14, 2025, the LME zinc inventory was 167,050 tons, a decrease of 900 tons from the previous trading day. [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Nickel: Rolling short [1] - Stainless steel: Hold [1] - Zinc: Bearish outlook [3] Core Views of the Reports Nickel and Stainless Steel - The rumor of the Philippines banning nickel exports has been disproven by the market. The market quickly reversed all the gains, and the closing price was basically the same as the starting point of the previous day. The supply of nickel ore is likely to loosen, and there is no sign of production cuts in nickel iron. The overall supply of electrolytic nickel in China has decreased month-on-month, but it remains at the highest level in the same period in history. The cost of electrowinning nickel is expected to decline significantly. The demand for nickel is under pressure, and the profit of stainless steel manufacturers has not improved significantly. The report suggests rolling short nickel in the range of 120,000 - 127,000 [1][2]. Zinc - The profit of zinc mining enterprises has been affected by the tariff policy, but the profit of mining enterprises is still at a relatively high level. The TC price has not declined, indicating that there is no production cut in the mining end, and the import of the mining end has been greatly repaired. The demand peak season is coming to an end, and the demand for zinc is expected to weaken. The report suggests waiting for opportunities to short zinc [3][4]. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Macro & Industry News Nickel and Stainless Steel - The Philippines plans to ban nickel ore exports from June 2025, which may lead to a shortage of global nickel ore supply and price increases. In 2024, Indonesia imported about 10 million tons of nickel ore from the Philippines, mainly supplying smelters in industrial parks such as Morowali and Weda Bay. The ban may cause supply chain disruptions for these smelters [1]. Zinc - In April 2025, the retail sales of the national passenger car market reached 1.755 million units, a year-on-year increase of 14.5% and a month-on-month decrease of 9.4%. The cumulative retail sales this year reached 6.872 million units, a year-on-year increase of 7.9% [3]. Supply Nickel and Stainless Steel - The rumor of the Philippines banning nickel exports has been disproven by the market. The Philippines is out of the rainy season, and the shipping volume is expected to increase. The supply of nickel ore is likely to loosen. The profit of nickel iron produced from medium-grade nickel ore is close to the break-even point, but the profit of nickel iron produced from low-grade nickel ore is still substantial. The overall supply of electrolytic nickel in China has decreased month-on-month, but it remains at the highest level in the same period in history. The cost of electrowinning nickel is expected to decline significantly [1]. Zinc - The profit of zinc mining enterprises has been affected by the tariff policy, but the profit of mining enterprises is still at a relatively high level. The TC price has not declined, indicating that there is no production cut in the mining end, and the import of the mining end has been greatly repaired. The profit of integrated enterprises has shrunk, but it is still not low. The static profit of pure smelting enterprises has turned negative again, but the profit of smelting enterprises has turned positive after considering by-product income. The possibility of production cuts for both pure smelting enterprises and integrated enterprises is extremely small, and the overall supply is expected to loosen [3]. Demand Nickel and Stainless Steel - The cost of nickel in the process of producing nickel sulfate from nickel beans is about 127,000 yuan, which is consistent with the technical pressure level. The demand support provided by the cost of downstream nickel sulfate is about 134,000 yuan/ton, and the profit critical point of external procurement manufacturers is about 137,000 yuan/ton, both of which have decreased compared with the previous period. The profit of stainless steel manufacturers has not improved significantly, but the production volume has remained high. The possibility of production cuts in stainless steel is small [2]. Zinc - The demand peak season is coming to an end. The capacity utilization rate and output of galvanizing are not high, and the enthusiasm of manufacturers for production is low. The inventory of steel mills is low, while the social inventory has started to accumulate, indicating that the terminal demand for zinc ingots is starting to decline. The demand for die-casting alloys has not improved significantly, and manufacturers are producing on demand. The supply of zinc oxide is relatively sufficient, and there is no sign of an increase in the operating rate. The overall demand for zinc is expected to weaken [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Nickel - Hold [1] - Stainless Steel - Hold [1] - Zinc - Bearish Outlook [3][4] 2. Core Views Nickel and Stainless Steel - The rumor of the Philippines banning nickel ore exports, if true, could turn China's nickel element supply from surplus to shortage. The spot price of nickel ore from the Philippines has rebounded, and the seasonal loosening of the ore market is yet to appear, but the possibility of loosening at the ore end remains high. The overall supply of electrolytic nickel in China is still at a high level, and the production cost of electrowinning nickel is expected to decline. The short - term rise in nickel prices is affected by the rumor, but the reliability of the news is questionable, so it is advisable to wait and see [1]. Zinc - The impact of tariffs has temporarily subsided. In the short term, supply is stable with a slight increase, while the peak demand season has passed. Manufacturers are pessimistic about terminal demand, so the overall outlook is bearish [3][4]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Macro & Industry News - The Philippines government plans to ban nickel ore exports from June 2025, which may hit Indonesia's nickel smelting industry. In 2024, Indonesia imported about 10 million tons of nickel ore from the Philippines. The ban may cause a global supply crunch and price increase of nickel ore, but the reliability of this news is in doubt [1]. Supply - If the Philippines bans nickel ore exports, China's nickel element supply may shift from surplus to shortage. The spot price of nickel ore from the Philippines has rebounded, and the seasonal loosening of the ore market is yet to appear. The profit of producing nickel iron from medium - grade nickel ore is close to the break - even point, while that from low - grade nickel ore is still substantial. The overall supply of electrolytic nickel in China has decreased month - on - month but remains at the highest level in the same period of history [1]. Demand - In the process of producing nickel sulfate from nickel beans, the nickel cost is about 127,000 yuan, which is consistent with the technical pressure level. The demand support from downstream nickel sulfate cost is about 134,000 yuan/ton, and the profit threshold for external procurement manufacturers is about 137,000 yuan/ton, both lower than before. The possibility of stainless steel production cuts is small [2]. Zinc Macro & Industry News - In April 2025, the retail volume of the national passenger car market was 1.755 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 14.5% and a month - on - month decrease of 9.4%. The cumulative retail volume this year is 6.872 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 7.9% [3]. Supply - The profit of zinc mining enterprises has been affected by tariff policies, but it is still at a relatively medium - high level. The TC price has not declined, indicating no production cuts at the ore end, and imports at the ore end have significantly recovered. The profit of integrated enterprises has shrunk but is still not low, and the profit of smelting enterprises has turned positive. The possibility of production cuts at the supply end is very small, and the overall supply is loosening [3]. Demand - The peak demand season is approaching the end. In the galvanizing industry, the capacity utilization rate and production are not high, and manufacturers' production enthusiasm is low due to pessimism about future demand. The terminal demand for zinc ingots is expected to decline. In the die - casting alloy market, manufacturers produce on demand, and the market is expected to maintain rigid - demand transactions. In the zinc oxide market, the supply is relatively sufficient, and the possibility of manufacturers increasing the operating rate is low [4].