Report Information - Report Title: Weekly Report on the Shanghai Zinc Market [2] - Report Date: July 18, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Wang Fuhui [2] - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F03123381 [2] - Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number: Z0019878 [2] Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - This week, the main contract of Shanghai zinc declined and then rebounded, with a weekly decline of 0.38% and an amplitude of 1.83%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 22,295 yuan/ton [6]. - Macroscopically, the month-on-month growth of US retail sales in June exceeded expectations, reversing the decline in the previous two months. The EU is drafting a tariff list for US services, preparing for an escalation of the trade war [6]. - Fundamentally, the import volume of zinc ore at home and abroad has increased, the processing fee of zinc ore has continued to rise, and the price of sulfuric acid has increased significantly. The profit of smelters has been further repaired, and their production enthusiasm has increased. New production capacities in various places have been gradually released, and the previously shut-down production capacities have resumed production, so the supply growth has accelerated. Currently, the import window is closed, and the inflow of imported zinc has decreased. On the demand side, the downstream has entered the off-season, and the operating rate of processing enterprises has decreased year-on-year. Recently, zinc prices have been widely adjusted. Downstream enterprises mainly purchase on demand at low prices and have a low acceptance of high-priced zinc. Domestic social inventories have continued to increase, and the spot premium has dropped to a low level. Overseas LME inventories have slightly rebounded, but the spot premium has increased. The strong LME zinc price has driven up the domestic zinc price [6]. - Technically, the positions are decreasing, both longs and shorts are cautious, and the price is oscillating within a range. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the 22,500 mark [6]. - It is recommended to wait and see temporarily or go short lightly on rallies [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Summary - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai zinc declined and then rebounded this week, with a weekly decline of 0.38% and an amplitude of 1.83%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 22,295 yuan/ton [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Macroeconomic factors and supply - demand fundamentals affect zinc prices. The supply is increasing, while the demand is in the off - season. The LME zinc price is strong, driving the domestic price. Technically, it is in a range - bound state [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see temporarily or go short lightly on rallies [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Price and Ratio**: As of July 18, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai zinc was 22,295 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan/ton from July 11, 2025, a decrease of 0.38%. As of July 17, 2025, the closing price of LME zinc was 2,737.5 US dollars/ton, down 39.5 US dollars/ton from July 11, 2025, a decrease of 1.42%. The Shanghai - London ratio has decreased [11]. - **Net Positions and Open Interest**: As of July 18, 2025, the net positions of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc were 16,905 lots, a decrease of 16,095 lots from July 11, 2025. The open interest of Shanghai zinc was 226,362 lots, a decrease of 25,727 lots from July 11, 2025, a decrease of 10.21% [13]. - **Price Spreads**: As of July 18, 2025, the aluminum - zinc futures price spread was 1,785 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from July 11, 2025. The lead - zinc futures price spread was 5,475 yuan/ton, an increase of 170 yuan/ton from July 11, 2025 [18]. - **Premiums and Discounts**: As of July 18, 2025, the spot price of 0 zinc ingots was 22,370 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan/ton from July 11, 2025, a decrease of 0.62%. The spot discount was 15 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from last week. As of July 17, 2025, the spread between the near - month and 3 - month LME zinc was - 3.2 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 7.88 US dollars/ton from July 10, 2025 [24]. - **Inventories**: As of July 18, 2025, the LME refined zinc inventory was 119,100 tons, an increase of 13,850 tons from July 11, 2025, an increase of 13.16%. The Shanghai Futures Exchange refined zinc inventory was 54,630 tons, an increase of 4,649 tons from last week, an increase of 9.3%. As of July 17, 2025, the domestic refined zinc social inventory was 74,300 tons, an increase of 1,800 tons from July 10, 2025, an increase of 2.48% [27]. 3. Industry Situation - **Upstream**: In April 2025, the global zinc ore production was 1.0192 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.61% and a year - on - year increase of 9.71%. In May 2025, the monthly import of zinc ore concentrates was 491,522.01 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.64% and a year - on - year increase of 85.28% [31]. - **Supply - Side**: In April 2025, the global refined zinc production was 1.1384 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.59 million tons, an increase of 0.52%. The global refined zinc consumption was 1.1224 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.0238 million tons, an increase of 2.17%. The global refined zinc surplus was 0.016 million tons, compared with a surplus of 0.0339 million tons in the same period last year. The WBMS reported a supply shortage in the global zinc market in May 2024. In June 2025, China's zinc production was 628,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. From January to June, the cumulative zinc output was 3.545 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.8%. In May 2025, the refined zinc import volume was 26,716.51 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 39.85%; the refined zinc export volume was 1,414.24 tons, a year - on - year increase of 65.97% [34][38][41]. - **Downstream**: - **Galvanized Sheets**: From January to May 2025, the inventory of galvanized sheets (strips) of major domestic enterprises was 769,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.49%. In May 2025, the import volume of galvanized sheets (strips) was 36,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 32.3%; the export volume was 338,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 24.57% [44]. - **Real Estate**: From January to June 2025, the new housing construction area was 303.6432 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.14%; the housing completion area was 225.6661 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 22.87%. From January to June 2025, the funds in place for real estate development enterprises were 5.020229 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 6.2%; among them, personal mortgage loans were 0.6847 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.4% [49][50]. - **Infrastructure**: From January to June 2025, the infrastructure investment increased by 8.9% year - on - year. In June 2025, the real estate development climate index was 93.6, a decrease of 0.11 from the previous month and an increase of 1.61 from the same period last year [53]. - **Home Appliances**: In June 2025, the refrigerator production was 9.0474 million units, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%. From January to June, the cumulative refrigerator production was 50.6416 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 0%. In June 2025, the air - conditioner production was 28.3831 million units, a year - on - year increase of 3%. From January to June, the cumulative air - conditioner production was 163.2961 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.5% [56]. - **Automobiles**: In June 2025, China's automobile sales volume was 2,904,482 units, a year - on - year increase of 13.83%; China's automobile production was 2,794,105 units, a year - on - year increase of 11.43% [60].

祁玉蓉（F03100031, Z0021060），联系电话：010-8229 5006 | 铅锌日评20250513：原料不足引发炼厂减产，铅价下方支撑较强；沪锌区间整理 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/5/13 指标 单位 今值 变动 近期趋势 | | | | | 元/吨 16,750.00 0.75% SMM1#铅锭平均价格 | | | | | 沪铅期现价格 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 16,995.00 1.13% | | | | | 元/吨 -245.00 -65.00 沪铅基差 | | | | | 升贴水-上海 元/吨 -15.00 -15.00 | | | | | 升贴水-LME 0-3 美元/吨 4.69 14.01 升贴水-LME 3-15 美元/吨 -58.90 4.40 | | | | | 价差 沪铅近月-沪铅连一 元/吨 -40.00 -60.00 | | | | | 元/吨 沪铅连一-沪铅连二 -5.00 -15.00 | | | | | 铅 沪铅连二-沪铅连三 元/吨 - -10.00 | | | | | 手 42,622.00 47 ...