Core Insights - The collaboration between Glencore and Jinli Group has been ongoing since 2007, with Jinli Group emerging as a benchmark enterprise in energy conservation and comprehensive recycling in the non-ferrous metal industry [3][4] - Glencore, a global leader in natural resources, reported an estimated total revenue of approximately $240 billion for 2024, ranking 24th in the Fortune Global 500 [3] - The city of Jiyuan, where Jinli Group is located, is a significant hub for non-ferrous metals in China and Asia, contributing 20.2% of the national electrolytic lead production and 23.8% of silver production in 2024 [3][4] Company Overview - Jinli Group has an annual production capacity of 650,000 tons of lead, 200,000 tons of zinc, and 2,000 tons of silver, with a comprehensive recycling capability of nearly 27,000 tons of precious metals [3][4] - Glencore operates in over 60 countries, covering various sectors including minerals, energy, metals, and agricultural products, and is committed to sustainable resource development and efficient utilization [3] Strategic Collaboration - The partnership focuses on resource utilization, technological innovation, and green low-carbon initiatives, leveraging Jiyuan's advanced smelting technologies and complete industrial chain from lead and zinc to precious metals [4] - The collaboration is seen as a model for commercial win-win scenarios and a practical implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative, aiming to transform Jiyuan from a "raw material city" to a "new materials strong city" [4]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic zinc ingot inventory is increasing, while overseas London zinc inventory is decreasing, leading to a divergence in supply and demand dynamics, which may result in an expanded price gap between domestic and international markets. This situation could potentially boost domestic demand as the traditional peak consumption season approaches, with expectations for spot zinc prices to surpass 23,000 yuan/ton in September [1][8]. Inventory Dynamics - As of August 18, domestic zinc ingot social inventory reached 116,100 tons, reflecting an increase of over 27% since early August, marking five consecutive weeks of inventory accumulation, indicating weakened market consumption during the traditional off-peak season [1]. - In contrast, London zinc inventory has decreased from 75,850 tons to a near two-year low, primarily due to supply tightening caused by high energy costs affecting European smelters and increased zinc consumption driven by infrastructure investments in India and Southeast Asia [3]. Price Trends - The current market shows a "tight supply abroad and loose supply domestically" scenario, with high domestic inventory suppressing prices while overseas inventory depletion supports international zinc prices. The domestic spot prices have remained low, while London zinc prices have shown an upward trend, leading to a declining Shanghai-London price ratio, which has approached a low point not seen since May 2024 [5]. Short-term Outlook - Domestic social inventory accumulation may continue into September, while overseas supply tightness is expected to persist. The divergence in price trends is likely to continue, with the Shanghai-London price ratio potentially declining further. However, increased demand for domestic electrolytic zinc from European markets and infrastructure projects in India and Southeast Asia may help alleviate the oversupply situation domestically [7]. - The upcoming traditional consumption peak season ("Golden September and Silver October") is anticipated to provide a dual boost to domestic zinc demand, with expectations of a 10%-15% increase in demand for galvanized sheets and zinc alloys due to seasonal recovery in real estate completions and automotive production [7]. Price Forecast - Short-term domestic spot prices are expected to fluctuate between 22,000 and 23,000 yuan/ton. As the peak season effects become more pronounced, spot zinc prices are projected to break through the 23,000 yuan/ton resistance level and align more closely with London zinc price trends. However, given the high domestic inventory, the pace of price increases may be moderate, warranting close attention to inventory depletion rates and actual downstream purchasing activities [8].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic electrolytic zinc market is experiencing a significant supply-demand imbalance, leading to a potentially weak and volatile market in the short term [1] Market Price and Trends - As of August 8, the domestic electrolytic zinc spot price is 22,480 yuan per ton, reflecting a decrease of 40 yuan per ton, or 0.18% [1] - Recent market trends show a slight recovery in zinc prices driven by macroeconomic factors, particularly a sharp decline in U.S. non-farm payrolls in July, which fell to 73,000, the lowest in nine months [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side is pressured by increased production capacity from domestic smelters and a relaxed mining environment, contributing to downward pressure on zinc prices [1] - On the demand side, the market is currently in a low season, with suboptimal operating rates in galvanizing enterprises and weak demand, leading to an accumulation of zinc ingot social inventory [1] Market Outlook - After the macroeconomic sentiment is digested, the market is expected to revert to fundamentals, likely resulting in an overall weak performance [1]

Core Insights - The China Commodity Price Index (CBPI) rose by 0.5% month-on-month in July 2025, marking three consecutive months of positive growth, indicating optimistic business expectations and overall market expansion [1][5] - The overall stability in the commodity market is supported by the implementation of "anti-involution" policies and increased macroeconomic counter-cyclical adjustment measures [5][7] - Despite the positive trends, global commodity price volatility and external uncertainties remain significant challenges for certain industries [1][5] Commodity Price Index Summary - The CBPI for July 2025 is reported at 111.4 points, with a month-on-month increase of 0.5% and a year-on-year decrease of 2.7% [3][6] - The black metal price index rebounded to 77.9 points, up 1.7% month-on-month, while the non-ferrous price index rose to 130.1 points, up 1.1% month-on-month [3][7] - The energy price index decreased to 96.7 points, down 0.6% month-on-month, and the chemical price index fell to 102.9 points, down 1.4% month-on-month [3][8] Sector-Specific Insights - In July, 32 out of 50 monitored commodities saw price increases, with lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and coking coal rising by 10.2%, 9.8%, and 9.6% respectively [5][6] - The chemical sector experienced a decline, with methanol and cement prices dropping by 5% and 4.8% respectively, attributed to supply-demand imbalances and increased inventories [8][9] - The agricultural price index slightly decreased to 97.9 points, down 0.2% month-on-month, influenced by high temperatures and lower-than-expected summer consumption [8][9] Market Dynamics - The rebound in black metal prices is driven by improved market confidence and rising prices of raw materials like coking coal and coke [6][7] - The energy sector's decline is linked to seasonal production slowdowns and weaker downstream demand [7][8] - The mineral price index fell to 71.7 points, down 2.7% month-on-month, due to weak downstream demand and increased inventory pressures [9]

Core Insights - The China Commodity Price Index (CBPI) for May 2025 is reported at 110.3 points, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.3% but a year-on-year decrease of 7.2% [1][3] - The index shows signs of stabilization and improvement due to a temporary easing of US-China trade tariffs, which has restored some market confidence [1][3] - Despite the recovery in global commodity prices, external uncertainties and insufficient effective demand remain significant challenges for various industries [1][3] Price Index Summary - The CBPI increased from 109.9 points in April to 110.3 points in May, with a month-on-month rise of 0.4 points [3] - The energy price index decreased to 96.3 points, down 2.1% month-on-month and down 14.9% year-on-year [3][4] - The chemical price index rebounded to 102.8 points, with a month-on-month increase of 0.5% but a year-on-year decline of 13.7% [3][4] - The black metal price index fell to 78.7 points, down 0.8% month-on-month and down 11.4% year-on-year [3][4] - The non-ferrous metal price index rose slightly to 127.7 points, up 0.9% month-on-month but down 5.2% year-on-year [3][4] - The agricultural product price index increased to 98.2 points, with a month-on-month rise of 0.5% and a year-on-year increase of 2% [3][4] Commodity Price Movements - Among 50 monitored commodities, 32 (64%) saw price declines while 17 (34%) experienced price increases in May [5] - The top three commodities with price increases were PTA (up 9.5%), ethylene glycol (up 4.6%), and corn (up 4.3%) [5] - The largest price declines were observed in industrial silicon (down 10.2%), lithium carbonate (down 10%), and soybean meal (down 9.9%) [5]