Group 1: Report Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish; Arbitrage: Neutral [5] Group 2: Core View - Zinc prices have fallen, and there is restocking in the spot market, but social inventories are increasing and may soon exceed the five - year average. The supply pressure is prominent, and the domestic inventory build - up is expected to continue even during the peak consumption season. Zinc prices may be under pressure if the peak - season consumption expectation fails, and may show a relatively weak trend compared to other non - ferrous metals, but the impact of overseas inventories should be noted [4] Group 3: Key Data Summary Spot - LME zinc spot premium is $59.11 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,140 yuan per ton, up 310 yuan from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of - 35 yuan per ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,170 yuan per ton, up 310 yuan, with a premium of - 45 yuan per ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,140 yuan per ton, up 320 yuan, with a premium of - 35 yuan per ton [1] Futures - On October 9, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22,040 yuan per ton, closed at 22,315 yuan per ton, up 380 yuan. The trading volume was 137,234 lots, and the open interest was 113,253 lots. The highest price was 22,340 yuan per ton, and the lowest was 21,950 yuan per ton [2] Inventory - As of October 9, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots is 150,200 tons, a change of 8,800 tons from the previous period. LME zinc inventory is 38,250 tons, with no change from the previous trading day [3] Group 4: Market Analysis - Zinc prices have dropped, and there is restocking in the spot market, but social inventories are increasing. The cost of domestic and imported zinc concentrates (TC) is rising, and smelting profits are increasing, leading to high smelting enthusiasm. The supply is expected to increase, and the pressure on the supply side is prominent. Even during the peak consumption season, domestic inventory build - up is expected, and the current inventory build - up is accelerating. If the peak - season consumption expectation fails, zinc prices will face greater pressure [4] Group 5: Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish; Arbitrage: Neutral [5]