Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish; Arbitrage: Neutral [6] Group 2: Report's Core View - Zinc prices have declined, and there is restocking behavior in the spot market, but social inventories are increasing and are about to exceed the levels of the past five years. Spot liquidity has improved, but procurement remains cautious. The TC of domestic and imported ores continues to rise, leading to higher smelting profits and sustained smelting enthusiasm. The supply is expected to increase, and the pressure on the supply side continues to emerge. Even during the peak consumption season, the domestic inventory accumulation is expected, and the current inventory accumulation is accelerating. If the peak consumption season expectations are disappointed, zinc prices will face significant pressure and may show a relatively weak trend, but the impact of overseas inventories needs attention [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is $175.85/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,400 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a premium of -10 yuan/ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,360 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton, with a premium of -50 yuan/ton; Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,360 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton, with a premium of -50 yuan/ton [2] - **Futures**: On November 17, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22,460 yuan/ton, closed at 22,465 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 94,668 lots, and the open interest was 91,450 lots. The highest price was 22,495 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,385 yuan/ton [3] - **Inventory**: As of November 17, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 156,600 tons, down 1,300 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, LME zinc inventory was 39,975 tons, up 1,000 tons from the previous trading day [4] Market Analysis - Zinc prices have dropped, and there is restocking in the spot market, but social inventories are rising and approaching the five - year average. Spot liquidity has improved, but procurement is still cautious. The TC of domestic and imported ores is rising, smelting profits are increasing, and smelting enthusiasm remains high. The supply is expected to increase, and the pressure on the supply side is obvious. Even during the peak consumption season, domestic inventory accumulation is expected, and the current inventory build - up is accelerating. If the peak consumption season expectations are not met, zinc prices will face great pressure and may be relatively weak, but the impact of overseas inventories needs to be considered [5] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish; Arbitrage: Neutral [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] 2. Core View - Zinc prices may face pressure due to increasing supply and potential disappointment in consumption during the peak season, but the impact of overseas inventories needs attention [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is $136.85/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 21,870 yuan/ton, with a premium of -40 yuan/ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 21,820 yuan/ton, with a premium of -100 yuan/ton; Tianjin zinc spot price is 21,870 yuan/ton, with a premium of -40 yuan/ton [1] - **Futures**: On October 20, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 21,885 yuan/ton and closed at 21,855 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 86,404 lots, and the position was 65,610 lots. The highest price was 21,945 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 21,820 yuan/ton [2] - **Inventory**: As of October 20, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 165,300 tons, an increase of 2,500 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 37,325 tons, a decrease of 700 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - There is restocking in the spot market as zinc prices fall, but social inventories are increasing and may exceed the five - year average. Spot liquidity has improved, but procurement remains cautious. The TC of domestic and imported zinc ores is rising, leading to higher smelting profits and continuous smelting enthusiasm. The supply is expected to increase, and the upward trend of TC is expected to continue. Supply pressure is prominent, and domestic inventory accumulation is expected even during the peak consumption season. If the peak - season consumption expectation fails, zinc prices will face significant pressure [4] Strategy - **Unilateral**: Cautiously bearish. - **Arbitrage**: Neutral [5]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish; Arbitrage: Neutral [5] Group 2: Core View - Zinc prices have fallen, and there is restocking in the spot market, but social inventories are increasing and may soon exceed the five - year average. The supply pressure is prominent, and the domestic inventory build - up is expected to continue even during the peak consumption season. Zinc prices may be under pressure if the peak - season consumption expectation fails, and may show a relatively weak trend compared to other non - ferrous metals, but the impact of overseas inventories should be noted [4] Group 3: Key Data Summary Spot - LME zinc spot premium is $59.11 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,140 yuan per ton, up 310 yuan from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of - 35 yuan per ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,170 yuan per ton, up 310 yuan, with a premium of - 45 yuan per ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,140 yuan per ton, up 320 yuan, with a premium of - 35 yuan per ton [1] Futures - On October 9, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22,040 yuan per ton, closed at 22,315 yuan per ton, up 380 yuan. The trading volume was 137,234 lots, and the open interest was 113,253 lots. The highest price was 22,340 yuan per ton, and the lowest was 21,950 yuan per ton [2] Inventory - As of October 9, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots is 150,200 tons, a change of 8,800 tons from the previous period. LME zinc inventory is 38,250 tons, with no change from the previous trading day [3] Group 4: Market Analysis - Zinc prices have dropped, and there is restocking in the spot market, but social inventories are increasing. The cost of domestic and imported zinc concentrates (TC) is rising, and smelting profits are increasing, leading to high smelting enthusiasm. The supply is expected to increase, and the pressure on the supply side is prominent. Even during the peak consumption season, domestic inventory build - up is expected, and the current inventory build - up is accelerating. If the peak - season consumption expectation fails, zinc prices will face greater pressure [4] Group 5: Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish; Arbitrage: Neutral [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The fundamental situation of Shanghai zinc maintains a pattern of strong supply and weak demand with inventory accumulation. However, as downstream开工 rates rise and there is an expectation of regular inventory stocking before the National Day holiday, the demand side is expected to improve, and the speed of inventory accumulation will slow down. Additionally, LME zinc remains in a back structure, the Shanghai-London ratio continues to deteriorate, and the zinc ingot export window is expected to open. In the short term, the support below the zinc price is solid, and one can lightly allocate long positions. The operating range is expected to be between 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton. Continued attention should be paid to macro - sentiment changes and overseas risks [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - **Price Changes**: The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots increased by 0.96% to 22,160 yuan/ton, the closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract rose by 0.68% to 22,305 yuan/ton, and the LME zinc closing price (electronic trading) increased by 3.45% to 2,956 US dollars/ton [10]. - **Basis and Spread**: The report presents data on basis, LME zinc premium/discount, trading volume - to - open - interest ratio, Shanghai - London ratio, and various spot and futures spreads [12][14]. 2. Raw Material Situation - **Zinc Concentrate Inventory**: As of September 12, the inventory of imported zinc ore in Lianyungang was 160,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 30,000 tons. The total inventory of 7 ports was 445,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 16,600 tons [21]. - **Zinc Concentrate Profit**: As of September 11, the production profit of zinc concentrate enterprises was 3,838 yuan/metal ton. In July, the import volume of zinc concentrate was 501,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 51.97% and a year - on - year increase of 33.58%. From January to July, the cumulative import volume was 3.0354 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 45.20% [28]. - **Processing Fees**: The domestic TC decreased slightly, while the imported TC continued to increase. The CZSPT small group set the import processing fee for the fourth quarter at 120 - 140 US dollars/dry ton [3][32]. 3. Refining Production - **Production Profit**: The production profit of refined zinc enterprises continued to improve. As of September 11, the production profit was - 228 yuan/ton. In July, the domestic refined zinc production was 602,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 17,700 tons, and it is expected to increase to about 620,000 - 630,000 tons in August [38]. - **Import Situation**: The import profit window was closed. As of September 12, the import profit of refined zinc was - 2,804.68 yuan/ton. From January to July 2025, the cumulative import volume of refined zinc was 209,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 30,600 tons [41]. 4. Downstream Consumption - **Galvanizing**: The galvanizing enterprise开工 rate increased by 5.98 percentage points to 56.06%. The raw material inventory increased, and the finished product inventory decreased [47][50]. - **Die - Casting Zinc Alloy**: The price of zinc alloy increased slightly. The开工 rate increased by 2.99 percentage points to 53.99%. The raw material inventory decreased, and the finished product inventory increased [59][62][65]. - **Zinc Oxide**: The price of zinc oxide increased by 0.47% to 21,300 yuan/ton. The开工 rate increased by 2.71 percentage points to 57.21%. The raw material inventory decreased, and the finished product inventory fluctuated slightly [69][72][75]. 5. Inventory Situation - **Shanghai Zinc Social Inventory**: As of September 11, the SMM zinc ingot three - place inventory was 143,300 tons, showing an increase. The SMM zinc ingot bonded area inventory was 8,000 tons, remaining flat week - on - week [82]. - **Exchange Inventory**: As of September 12, the SHFE inventory was 94,600 tons, showing an increase. As of September 11, the LME inventory was 50,500 tons, showing a continuous decline [85]. - **Monthly Supply - Demand Balance**: The report provides the monthly supply - demand balance table from July 2024 to July 2025, showing the production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and monthly supply - demand balance of zinc [91].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] 2. Core View - The spot market trading is difficult to be active, with traders holding prices and downstream remaining pessimistic. The cost of imported TC is rising, and smelters have sufficient raw material inventory. The industry's smelting profit remains above 1,000 yuan/ton, and the supply pressure persists. Consumption is showing signs of transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, but there is still an expectation of inventory build - up in China. Zinc prices may be under pressure if the peak - season consumption expectation fails, and may show a relatively weak trend [4]. 3. Key Data Summary Spot Market - LME zinc spot premium is -$10.26 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,170 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a premium of - 35 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,120 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton, with a premium of - 65 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,150 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton, with a premium of - 55 yuan/ton [1] Futures Market - On August 20, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,215 yuan/ton, closed at 22,265 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 111,901 lots, and the open interest was 110,994 lots. The highest price was 22,275 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,155 yuan/ton [2] Inventory - As of August 20, 2025, the total inventory of SMM's seven - region zinc ingots was 135,400 tons, a change of 6,300 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 71,250 tons, a change of - 950 tons from the previous trading day [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] 2. Core View of the Report - Zinc prices have fallen, and there is restocking behavior in the spot market, but social inventories are increasing and are about to exceed the same period in the past five years. Spot liquidity has improved, but purchases remain cautious. The TC of domestic and imported ores continues to rise, smelting profits are increasing, and the supply is expected to increase. Even during the peak consumption season, domestic inventory accumulation is expected to continue, and if the peak - season consumption expectations are not met, zinc prices will face significant pressure. Zinc prices are expected to be relatively weak compared to other non - ferrous metals, but the impact of overseas inventories needs attention [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is -$1.50 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,510 yuan per ton, down 50 yuan from the previous trading day, with a premium of -50 yuan per ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,490 yuan per ton, down 50 yuan, with a premium of -70 yuan per ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,500 yuan per ton, down 50 yuan, with a premium of -60 yuan per ton [1] - **Futures**: On August 14, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,600 yuan per ton, closed at 22,480 yuan per ton, down 190 yuan from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 78,030 lots, and the open interest was 80,798 lots. The highest price was 22,640 yuan per ton, and the lowest was 22,430 yuan per ton [2] - **Inventory**: As of August 14, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 129,200 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period. LME zinc inventory was 77,450 tons, a decrease of 1,025 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - Zinc prices have declined, and there is restocking in the spot market. However, social inventories are increasing and are approaching the five - year average for the same period. Spot liquidity has improved, but buyers remain cautious. The TC of domestic and imported ores continues to rise, smelting profits are high, and smelting enthusiasm remains strong. The supply is expected to increase. Even during the peak consumption season, inventory accumulation is expected to continue in China, and if the consumption expectations are not met, zinc prices will face pressure. Zinc prices may be relatively weak compared to other non - ferrous metals, but the impact of overseas inventories needs attention [4] Strategy - **Unilateral**: Cautiously bearish. - **Arbitrage**: Neutral [5]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The absolute price of zinc and the basis with the spot market are both weakening. The downstream has carried out rigid - demand restocking due to the decline in the absolute price of the spot market, but the supply in the spot market is still relatively sufficient, and the spot premium continues to be weak. The import ore TC is still on the rise, the smelting profit is still substantial, and the expectation of oversupply in the second half of the year remains unchanged. Although the downstream operating rate shows relative resilience and overall consumption is not bad, it cannot offset the high growth on the supply side. Social inventories are showing an accumulation trend, and it is expected that this trend will continue in the second half of the year. The rapid accumulation of social inventories will suppress zinc prices [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Important Data - **Spot Market**: The LME zinc spot premium is -$0.36 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price dropped by 250 yuan/ton to 22,180 yuan/ton, and the SMM Shanghai zinc spot premium dropped by 10 yuan/ton to 30 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong zinc spot price dropped by 250 yuan/ton to 22,110 yuan/ton, and the SMM Guangdong zinc spot premium dropped by 10 yuan/ton to - 40 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin zinc spot price dropped by 240 yuan/ton to 22,140 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin zinc spot premium remained flat at -10 yuan/ton [1]. - **Futures Market**: On July 14, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,225 yuan/ton and closed at 22,250 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 136,140 lots, an increase of 6,783 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 94,177 lots, a decrease of 13,455 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 22,265 yuan/ton and a low of 22,130 yuan/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: As of July 14, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 93,100 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons from the same period last week. The LME zinc inventory was 113,400 tons, an increase of 8,150 tons from the previous trading day [2]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **Supply - Side**: The import ore TC is still rising, the smelting profit is substantial, and the expectation of oversupply in the second half of the year remains unchanged. The raw material inventory of smelters has increased to 29.7 days, and they have sufficient raw material reserves, so their enthusiasm for purchasing from the ore end is not high [3]. - **Demand - Side**: The downstream operating rate shows relative resilience, and overall consumption is not bad, but it cannot offset the high growth on the supply side [3]. 3.3 Strategy - **Single - Side Trading**: Be cautiously bearish. - **Arbitrage**: Neutral [4]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Unilateral strategy: Cautiously bearish [4] - Arbitrage strategy: Neutral [4] Group 2: Core Views - The gap between the macro bullish sentiment and the fundamentals may drive the zinc price back to normal, and attention should be paid to changes in social inventory [3] Group 3: Summary by Content Spot and Futures - LME zinc spot premium was $4.68 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price rose by 240 yuan to 22,400 yuan per ton, with the premium down 20 yuan to 55 yuan per ton. SMM Guangdong and Tianjin zinc spot prices also rose by 240 yuan, with Guangdong at 22,330 yuan per ton (premium down 20 yuan to -15 yuan per ton) and Tianjin at 22,340 yuan per ton (premium down 20 yuan to -5 yuan per ton) [1] - On July 10, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22,120 yuan per ton and closed at 22,385 yuan per ton, up 305 yuan. Trading volume was 146,456 lots, down 8,057 lots, and positions were 112,634 lots, down 2,128 lots. The intraday price fluctuated between 22,110 - 22,430 yuan per ton [1] Inventory - As of July 10, 2025, the total SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory was 90,300 tons, an increase of 7,900 tons from last week. The LME zinc inventory was 105,600 tons, a decrease of 1,100 tons from the previous trading day [2] Market Analysis - In the spot market, it became colder with the market rising. Tianjin and Guangdong turned to discounts, while East China had a slight premium [3] - In June, zinc supply increased by 7.2% year - on - year, and the expected output in July was still as high as 590,000 tons, with supply pressure remaining [3] - Social inventory increase widened, and a trend of inventory accumulation may have formed. Refinery finished - product inventory and zinc alloy inventory increased significantly, alloy operating rates declined, and negative feedback from invisible inventory may have occurred [3] - The mine - end TC increased further, smelting profits expanded, and smelting enthusiasm grew, maintaining supply pressure [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish [4] - Arbitrage: Neutral [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The zinc ingot inventory has not undergone a qualitative change. The spot market transaction has not improved, and the spot premium continues to decline. The zinc alloy operating rate has significantly decreased, and there may be a negative feedback of hidden inventory. The TC remains stable overall, and the overseas zinc ore shipment volume is still increasing. The smelting profit exists, and the smelting enthusiasm is high, so the supply pressure remains unchanged. The overall consumption shows a marginal downward trend, and the zinc price lacks fundamental driving force for an increase. If the social inventory continues to increase, it will exert significant downward pressure [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium is -$24.65 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price dropped by 80 yuan per ton to 21,950 yuan per ton, and the SMM Shanghai zinc spot premium dropped by 15 yuan per ton to 100 yuan per ton. The SMM Guangdong zinc spot price dropped by 150 yuan per ton to 21,850 yuan per ton, and the SMM Guangdong zinc spot premium dropped by 85 yuan per ton to 0 yuan per ton. The SMM Tianjin zinc spot price dropped by 90 yuan per ton to 21,930 yuan per ton, and the SMM Tianjin zinc spot premium dropped by 25 yuan per ton to 80 yuan per ton [1] - **Futures**: On June 23, 2025, the main contract of SHFE zinc opened at 21,955 yuan per ton and closed at 21,980 yuan per ton, up 75 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 97,888 lots, a decrease of 6,808 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 67,890 lots, a decrease of 8,673 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 22,005 yuan per ton and the lowest point reaching 21,830 yuan per ton [1] - **Inventory**: As of June 23, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 77,800 tons, a decrease of 300 tons from the same period last week. As of June 23, 2025, the LME zinc inventory was 125,900 tons, a decrease of 325 tons from the previous trading day [2] Market Analysis - The spot market transaction has not improved. Even though the social inventory has slightly declined, the spot premium continues to fall. The zinc alloy operating rate has significantly decreased, and there may be a negative feedback of hidden inventory. The TC remains stable overall, and the overseas zinc ore shipment volume is still increasing. Although the further upward space is limited, the strong trend remains unchanged. The current TC price still allows for smelting profit, and the smelting enthusiasm is high, so the supply pressure remains unchanged. The overall consumption shows a marginal downward trend, the spot premium has dropped significantly, and the zinc price lacks fundamental driving force for an increase. If the social inventory continues to increase, it will exert significant downward pressure [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish [4] - Arbitrage: Neutral [4]