Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] 2. Core View - Zinc prices may face pressure due to increasing supply and potential disappointment in consumption during the peak season, but the impact of overseas inventories needs attention [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is $136.85/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 21,870 yuan/ton, with a premium of -40 yuan/ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 21,820 yuan/ton, with a premium of -100 yuan/ton; Tianjin zinc spot price is 21,870 yuan/ton, with a premium of -40 yuan/ton [1] - **Futures**: On October 20, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 21,885 yuan/ton and closed at 21,855 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 86,404 lots, and the position was 65,610 lots. The highest price was 21,945 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 21,820 yuan/ton [2] - **Inventory**: As of October 20, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 165,300 tons, an increase of 2,500 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 37,325 tons, a decrease of 700 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - There is restocking in the spot market as zinc prices fall, but social inventories are increasing and may exceed the five - year average. Spot liquidity has improved, but procurement remains cautious. The TC of domestic and imported zinc ores is rising, leading to higher smelting profits and continuous smelting enthusiasm. The supply is expected to increase, and the upward trend of TC is expected to continue. Supply pressure is prominent, and domestic inventory accumulation is expected even during the peak consumption season. If the peak - season consumption expectation fails, zinc prices will face significant pressure [4] Strategy - **Unilateral**: Cautiously bearish. - **Arbitrage**: Neutral [5]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-10-10 出口窗口打开，交易逻辑转变 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为59.11美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日310元/吨至22140元/吨，SMM上海锌 现货升贴水-35元/吨；SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日310元/吨至22170元/吨，广东锌现货升贴水-45元/吨；天津 锌现货价较前一交易日320元/吨至22140元/吨，天津锌现货升贴水-35元/吨。 期货方面：2025-10-09沪锌主力合约开于22040元/吨，收于22315元/吨，较前一交易日380元/吨，全天交易日成交 137234手，全天交易日持仓113253手，日内价格最高点达到22340元/吨，最低点达到21950元/吨。 库存方面：截至2025-10-09，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为15.02万吨，较上期变化0.88万吨。截止2025-10-09，LME 锌库存为38250吨，较上一交易日变化0吨。 市场分析 锌价回落现货市场存在补库行为，但社会库存增加，即将超过过去五年同期水平，现货流通性好转，仍以谨慎采 购为主。成本端，国产矿进口矿TC持续上涨，冶炼利润走高，冶炼积极性持续，供给端 ...

研究所 祁玉蓉 从业资格号：F03100031 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0021060 TEL：010-8229 5006 摘要 有色金属周报-锌 短期支撑稳固 2025年9月15日 | | 主要逻辑 | 本周观点 | 上周观点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | |  | 宏观：美国通胀数据升温，就业数据疲软，市场强化美联 | | | | | 储9月降息预期，有色上方压力减弱。 | | | |  | 原料端：维持趋松预期。考虑内外比值持续走差，进口矿 | | | | | 亏损明显，贸易商观望情绪较重，国产矿抢购热度，部分 | | | | | 的地区国产TC报价下调，进口TC则稳步上行，CZSPT小 | 沪锌基本面维持供强需弱的累库 | | | | 组四季度进口加工费定价为120-140美元/干吨。后续来看， | 格局，但随着下游开工回升，及 | | | | 矿企对国产TC持续上调意愿较低，加之高性价比下炼厂 | 国庆假期前的常规备库预期，需 | | | | 多采购国产矿，北方部分炼厂已提前开启冬储备库，后续 | 求端有望好转，累库速度趋缓。 | | | | TC调涨压力较大。 | 此外 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] 2. Core View - The spot market trading is difficult to be active, with traders holding prices and downstream remaining pessimistic. The cost of imported TC is rising, and smelters have sufficient raw material inventory. The industry's smelting profit remains above 1,000 yuan/ton, and the supply pressure persists. Consumption is showing signs of transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, but there is still an expectation of inventory build - up in China. Zinc prices may be under pressure if the peak - season consumption expectation fails, and may show a relatively weak trend [4]. 3. Key Data Summary Spot Market - LME zinc spot premium is -$10.26 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,170 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a premium of - 35 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,120 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton, with a premium of - 65 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,150 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton, with a premium of - 55 yuan/ton [1] Futures Market - On August 20, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,215 yuan/ton, closed at 22,265 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 111,901 lots, and the open interest was 110,994 lots. The highest price was 22,275 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,155 yuan/ton [2] Inventory - As of August 20, 2025, the total inventory of SMM's seven - region zinc ingots was 135,400 tons, a change of 6,300 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 71,250 tons, a change of - 950 tons from the previous trading day [3]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-08-15 库存增加，现货市场流通充足 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为-1.50美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日-50元/吨至22510元/吨，SMM上海锌 现货升贴水-50元/吨；SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日-50元/吨至22490元/吨，广东锌现货升贴水-70元/吨；天津 锌现货价较前一交易日-50元/吨至22500元/吨，天津锌现货升贴水-60元/吨。 期货方面：2025-08-14沪锌主力合约开于22600元/吨，收于22480元/吨，较前一交易日-190元/吨，全天交易日成交 78030手，全天交易日持仓80798手，日内价格最高点达到22640元/吨，最低点达到22430元/吨。 库存方面：截至2025-08-14，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为12.92万吨，较上期变化1.00万吨。截止2025-08-14，LME 锌库存为77450吨，较上一交易日变化-1025吨。 市场分析 锌价回落现货市场存在补库行为，但社会库存增加，即将超过过去五年同期水平，现货流通性好转，仍以谨慎采 购为主。成本端，国产矿进口矿TC持续上涨，冶炼利润走高，冶炼积极性持续， ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-15 单边：谨慎偏空。 套利：中性。 风险 绝对价格与现货基差同步走弱 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为-0.36 美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日下跌250元/吨至22180元/吨，SMM 上海锌现货升贴水较前一交易日下跌10元/吨至30元/吨，SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日下跌250元/吨至22110元/ 吨。SMM广东锌现货升贴水较前一交易日下跌10元/吨至-40元/吨，SMM天津锌现货价较前一交易日下跌240元/吨 至22140元/吨。SMM天津锌现货升贴水较前一交易日持平于-10元/吨。 期货方面：2025-07-14沪锌主力合约开于22225元/吨，收于22250元/吨，较前一交易日下跌150元/吨，全天交易日 成交136140手，较前一交易日增加6783手，全天交易日持仓94177手，较前一交易日减少13455手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到22265元/吨，最低点达到22130元/吨。 库存方面：截至2025-07-14，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为9.31万吨，较上周同期增加0.4万吨。截止2025-07-14，LME 锌库存为113400吨 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Unilateral strategy: Cautiously bearish [4] - Arbitrage strategy: Neutral [4] Group 2: Core Views - The gap between the macro bullish sentiment and the fundamentals may drive the zinc price back to normal, and attention should be paid to changes in social inventory [3] Group 3: Summary by Content Spot and Futures - LME zinc spot premium was $4.68 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price rose by 240 yuan to 22,400 yuan per ton, with the premium down 20 yuan to 55 yuan per ton. SMM Guangdong and Tianjin zinc spot prices also rose by 240 yuan, with Guangdong at 22,330 yuan per ton (premium down 20 yuan to -15 yuan per ton) and Tianjin at 22,340 yuan per ton (premium down 20 yuan to -5 yuan per ton) [1] - On July 10, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22,120 yuan per ton and closed at 22,385 yuan per ton, up 305 yuan. Trading volume was 146,456 lots, down 8,057 lots, and positions were 112,634 lots, down 2,128 lots. The intraday price fluctuated between 22,110 - 22,430 yuan per ton [1] Inventory - As of July 10, 2025, the total SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory was 90,300 tons, an increase of 7,900 tons from last week. The LME zinc inventory was 105,600 tons, a decrease of 1,100 tons from the previous trading day [2] Market Analysis - In the spot market, it became colder with the market rising. Tianjin and Guangdong turned to discounts, while East China had a slight premium [3] - In June, zinc supply increased by 7.2% year - on - year, and the expected output in July was still as high as 590,000 tons, with supply pressure remaining [3] - Social inventory increase widened, and a trend of inventory accumulation may have formed. Refinery finished - product inventory and zinc alloy inventory increased significantly, alloy operating rates declined, and negative feedback from invisible inventory may have occurred [3] - The mine - end TC increased further, smelting profits expanded, and smelting enthusiasm grew, maintaining supply pressure [3]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-24 锌锭库存尚未形成质的改变 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为-24.65 美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日下跌80元/吨至21950元/吨，SMM 上海锌现货升贴水较前一交易日下跌15元/吨至100元/吨，SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日下跌150元/吨至21850 元/吨。SMM广东锌现货升贴水较前一交易日下跌85元/吨至0元/吨，SMM天津锌现货价较前一交易日下跌90元/吨 至21930元/吨。SMM天津锌现货升贴水较前一交易日下跌25元/吨至80元/吨。 期货方面：2025-06-23沪锌主力合约开于21955元/吨，收于21980元/吨，较前一交易日上涨75元/吨，全天交易日成 交97888手，较前一交易日减少6808手，全天交易日持仓67890手，较前一交易日减少8673手，日内价格震荡，最 高点达到22005元/吨，最低点达到21830元/吨。 库存方面：截至2025-06-23，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为7.78万吨，较上周同期减少-0.03万吨。截止2025-06-23，LME 锌库存为125900吨，较上一交易日减少325吨。 市场分析 ...