锌板供应与需求

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沪锌期货早报-20250702
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-07-02 01:30
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of zinc show that in April 2025, the global zinc sheet production was 1153000 tons, consumption was 1130200 tons, with a surplus of 22700 tons; from January to April, production was 4451400 tons, consumption was 4507900 tons, with a shortage of 56500 tons. The base - point is neutral, inventories are declining (LME and SHFE), the market is in a long - position - dominated situation, and the expected trend of zinc futures ZN2508 is to oscillate and decline [2]. - The previous trading day saw Shanghai zinc oscillate and decline, with increased trading volume, long - position reduction, and short - position increase. Technically, prices are above long - term moving averages, short - term indicators KDJ are declining, and the bullish power is decreasing while the bearish power is increasing. It is expected to oscillate and decline in the short term [20]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Zinc Futures Market Conditions - On July 1, 2025, the zinc futures of various delivery months on the futures exchange generally showed a downward trend. For example, the contract 2507 had a previous settlement price of 22490, a closing price of 22315, a decline of 175; the contract 2508 had a previous settlement price of 22435, a closing price of 22255, a decline of 180 [3]. 3.2 Spot Market Conditions - On July 1, 2025, the prices of various zinc - related products in the domestic spot market mostly declined. For example, zinc concentrate in Shuwai Village was priced at 17180 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan/ton; zinc ingots in Shanghai were priced at 22300 yuan/ton, down 210 yuan/ton [4]. 3.3 Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics - From June 5 to June 30, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets increased from 58300 tons to 61800 tons. Compared with last Thursday, it increased by 2800 tons; compared with last Monday, it increased by 3600 tons [5]. 3.4 Zinc Warehouse Receipt Report - On July 1, 2025, the zinc warehouse receipts in the futures exchange showed a decrease. For example, the SHFE zinc warehouse receipts decreased by 253 tons to 6824 tons [2]. 3.5 LME Zinc Inventory Distribution - On July 1, 2025, the LME zinc inventory decreased by 2575 tons to 114900 tons [2][8]. 3.6 Zinc Concentrate Price Summary - On July 1, 2025, the prices of zinc concentrates in major domestic cities were around 17000 - 17200 yuan/ton, with a decline of 170 yuan/ton [9]. 3.7 Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes - On July 1, 2025, the prices of zinc ingots from major domestic smelters mostly declined. For example, the price of 0 zinc ingots from Yunnan Chihong Zinc & Germanium was 22010 yuan/ton, down 270 yuan/ton [13]. 3.8 Domestic Refined Zinc Production Statistics - In May 2025, the production of refined zinc was 422500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.19%, a year - on - year decrease of 9.74%, and a 4.86% decrease compared with the planned value. The capacity utilization rate was 78%, and the planned production in June was 453700 tons [15]. 3.9 Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes - On July 1, 2025, the domestic zinc concentrate processing fees were mostly in the range of 3200 - 3900 yuan/metal ton, and the import processing fee was 50 US dollars/kiloton [17]. 3.10 Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking - For the contract zn2508 on July 1, 2025, in terms of trading volume, Guotai Junan ranked first with 52153 lots, a decrease of 15329 lots compared with the previous trading day; in terms of long positions, CITIC Futures ranked first with 13533 lots, an increase of 705 lots; in terms of short positions, CITIC Futures ranked first with 13802 lots, a decrease of 964 lots [19].