新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-02-27 开工率恢复较缓，关注库存变化 重要数据 库存方面：截至2026-02-26，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为21.99万吨，较上期变化1.01万吨。截止2026-02-26，LME 锌库存为98400吨，较上一交易日变化-1425吨。 市场分析 节后现货市场成交情况仍需时间，下游开工率恢复缓慢，现货市场即使贸易商下调升贴水成交依旧偏弱。海外不 确定扰动仍然存在，地缘政治危机、关税调整以及降息大周期不改，同时需要警惕矿产资源保护风险外溢。基本 面方面春节累库幅度与往年同期相比较一致，关注后期的去库节奏。矿端TC依旧偏低，对价格形成有利支撑，硫 酸价格持续走强，综合冶炼亏损收窄，关注节后供给端的变化。对长期宏观和实际消费依旧保持乐观预期，绝对 价格方面寻找逢低买入保值的机会。 策略 单边：谨慎偏多。 套利：中性。 风险 1、海外矿预期外扰动。2、国内消费不及预期。3、流动性变化超预期。 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为-29.64美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日变化-70元/吨至24460元/吨，SMM 上海锌现货升贴水-45元/吨；SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日-60 ...

Core Viewpoint - The LME zinc futures prices experienced slight fluctuations, with a current price of $3289 per ton, reflecting a minor decrease of 0.03% from the opening price of $3281.5 per ton [1]. Group 1: LME Zinc Futures Market Overview - On February 18, LME zinc futures opened at $3281.5 per ton and reached a high of $3310 per ton and a low of $3275 per ton during the trading session [1]. - The closing price on February 17 was $3290 per ton, showing a decrease of 0.15% from the previous trading day [1]. Group 2: Zinc Inventory and Warehouse Data - As of February 17, the registered zinc warrants at the LME totaled 93,125 tons, with 8,900 tons being canceled, a reduction of 50 tons [2]. - The total zinc inventory at the LME decreased by 150 tons, bringing the total to 102,025 tons [2].

北京时间2月16日，伦敦金属交易所(LME)锌期货价格延续下行，开盘报3337美元/吨，现报3318.5美元/ 吨，跌幅0.72%，盘中最高触及3337.5美元/吨，最低下探3311美元/吨。 -- 点击查看伦锌期货最新行情走势 LME锌期货行情回顾： 伦锌期货实时行情 更新时间：---- 最新价 -- 涨跌值 -- 涨跌幅 | | | 2月13日伦敦金属交易所(LME)锌期货行情 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | | LME锌 | 3373 | 3386 | 3299 | 3342.5 | -1.15% | 【锌市场消息速递】 2月13日，伦敦金属交易所（LME）：锌注册仓单92975吨。注销仓单9250吨，减少1025吨。锌库存 102225吨，减少1275吨。 ...

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - Unilateral: Neutral [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The downstream is entering the holiday period, with the operating rate continuously declining. Even though zinc prices have fallen, downstream buyers are still mainly adopting a wait - and - see attitude. The seasonal off - season this year is in sync with previous years, and the previous increase in absolute prices did not have a negative impact on downstream consumption. Social inventories are starting the initial stage of accumulation, with the expected peak of inventory accumulation at 20 - 250,000 tons. The import TC of ore continues to decline, the import window is closed, and it is difficult for the import TC to rise before the new Benchmark is signed. Although the prices of sulfuric acid and by - products are rising, integrated smelting still faces partial losses. There is no obvious pressure on the supply of zinc ingots falling short of expectations, and there is still long - term optimism about consumption and macro factors [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data Spot - LME zinc spot premium is -$22.23 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price decreased by 320 yuan per ton to 24,580 yuan per ton, with a spot premium of - 35 yuan per ton. The SMM Guangdong zinc spot price decreased by 340 yuan per ton to 24,560 yuan per ton, with a spot premium of - 55 yuan per ton. The Tianjin zinc spot price decreased by 320 yuan per ton to 24,530 yuan per ton, with a spot premium of - 85 yuan per ton [1] Futures - On February 5, 2026, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 24,785 yuan per ton, closed at 24,395 yuan per ton, down 440 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 196,623 lots, and the position was 70,531 lots. The highest intraday price reached 24,980 yuan per ton, and the lowest was 24,390 yuan per ton [2] Inventory - As of February 5, 2026, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 133,900 tons, an increase of 82,000 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, the LME zinc inventory was 107,800 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - The downstream is in the holiday period with falling operating rates. Social inventories are starting to accumulate, and the expected peak is 20 - 250,000 tons. The import TC of ore is on a downward trend, the import window is closed, and it is difficult for the import TC to rise before the new Benchmark is signed. Integrated smelting has partial losses, and there is no obvious pressure on supply falling short of expectations. Long - term optimism remains for consumption and macro factors [4] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral. Arbitrage: Neutral [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. Arbitrage: Neutral [5] Core View - Zinc prices have declined, and there is restocking behavior in the spot market. However, social inventories are increasing and are about to exceed the same period in the past five years. Spot liquidity has improved, but procurement remains cautious. The TC of domestic and imported ores continues to rise, smelting profits are increasing, and smelting enthusiasm persists. The supply-side is expected to increase. Even during the peak consumption season, the domestic inventory accumulation is expected to continue, and the current inventory accumulation is accelerating. If the peak consumption season expectations are not met, zinc prices will face significant pressure. Zinc prices may be relatively weak even when other non-ferrous metals are strong, but the impact of overseas inventories needs attention [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data Spot - LME zinc spot premium is -$40.12/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price increased by 100 yuan/ton to 24,310 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of 55 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price increased by 110 yuan/ton to 24,310 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of 20 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price increased by 100 yuan/ton to 24,240 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -15 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On January 22, 2026, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 24,350 yuan/ton, closed at 24,400 yuan/ton, up 205 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the day was 131,273 lots, and the open interest was 118,558 lots. The highest price during the day reached 24,485 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 24,225 yuan/ton [2] Inventory - As of January 22, 2026, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 118,800 tons, a decrease of 3,200 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, LME zinc inventory was 111,700 tons, a decrease of 150 tons from the previous trading day [3]

Key Points - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that zinc prices are showing a strong trend, despite a decrease in downstream orders and procurement enthusiasm in the spot market [3][10] Group 1: Important Data - LME zinc spot premium is at -19.35 USD/ton, while SMM Shanghai zinc spot price has changed by 240 CNY/ton to 24,570 CNY/ton, with a premium of 50 CNY/ton [2][9] - As of January 14, 2026, SMM zinc ingot inventory totals 118,300 tons, a decrease of 20 tons from the previous period, and LME zinc inventory is at 106,725 tons, down by 175 tons from the previous trading day [2][9] Group 2: Market Analysis - The zinc price is currently strong, but the spot market is experiencing weaker downstream orders and lower procurement enthusiasm, leading to a slight decline in spot premiums [3][10] - Smelters are seeing a slight increase in raw material inventory, which is affecting the procurement enthusiasm for domestic ore, while the import ore treatment charge (TC) continues to decline [3][10] - The overall profit for smelters is difficult to restore, and there is a possibility that first-quarter production may fall short of expectations, which could lead to a continued decrease in supply pressure [3][10] Group 3: Strategy - The strategy for trading is cautiously bullish, indicating a positive outlook on zinc prices despite current market conditions [4][11] Group 4: Arbitrage - The arbitrage strategy is neutral, suggesting a balanced approach to trading in the current market environment [5][12]

Group 1: Zinc Market Overview - Today's Shanghai zinc futures showed weak fluctuations, with the main contract opening at 23,005 CNY/ton, reaching a high of 23,020 CNY/ton, and a low of 22,835 CNY/ton, closing at 22,970 CNY/ton, down 170 CNY, a decrease of 0.73% [1] - The trading volume for the Shanghai zinc 2601 contract was 120,568 lots, a decrease of 17,972 lots, while the open interest fell by 13,967 lots to 59,226 lots [1] - The latest price for London zinc was reported at 3,057 USD, an increase of 22 USD [1] Group 2: Domestic Zinc Price Statistics - The ccmn comprehensive price for 0 zinc was reported at 22,970-23,070 CNY/ton, with an average of 23,020 CNY, down 170 CNY; 1 zinc was priced at 22,880-22,980 CNY/ton, averaging 22,930 CNY, also down 170 CNY [1] - In Guangdong, the 0 zinc price ranged from 22,610 to 22,910 CNY/ton, averaging 22,760 CNY, and 1 zinc was priced at 22,540-22,840 CNY/ton, averaging 22,690 CNY, both down 170 CNY [1] - The current spot zinc market quotes 0 zinc between 22,960-23,070 CNY/ton and 1 zinc between 22,890-22,980 CNY/ton, with the 0 zinc premium at 30-140 CNY/ton and 1 zinc at a discount of 40-50 CNY/ton [1] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - In November, domestic zinc concentrate production was 311,400 tons, a decrease of 19,400 tons from October, with northern mines entering a seasonal reduction phase [3] - The processing fees for domestic zinc concentrate have rapidly declined, with domestic processing fees dropping to 1,600 CNY/metal ton and imported processing fees falling to 50.56 USD/dry ton [3] - Domestic zinc ingot inventory has been continuously decreasing, with a weekly decline of 12.34%, reaching the lowest level in three and a half months [3] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The overall market sentiment remains cautious, with downstream demand weak and trading activity subdued, despite traders' efforts to maintain prices [4] - The continuous decline in processing fees and expanding losses for smelters are expected to slow down the adjustment pace and space for zinc prices [4] - Short-term attention should be given to the support level at the 20-day moving average [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The previous trading day saw Shanghai Zinc fluctuate and rise, closing with a positive line, increased trading volume, and both long and short positions increasing, with more short - position increases. The market may fluctuate and decline in the short term. Technically, the price closed above the moving - average system with strong support. Short - term indicators KDJ are rising, operating in the strong area with increased overbought conditions; the trend indicator is declining, with the long - position strength rising and the short - position strength falling, and the long - position advantage expanding. The operation suggestion is that Shanghai Zinc ZN2601 will fluctuate and decline [22]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Analysis - In September 2025, global refined zinc production was 1.1935 million tons, consumption was 1.2292 million tons, with a supply shortage of 35,700 tons. From January to September, global zinc plate production was 10.3632 million tons, consumption was 10.7369 million tons, with a supply shortage of 373,700 tons. In September, global zinc ore production was 1.1633 million tons; from January to September, it was 9.9647 million tons, showing a bullish sign [2]. 2. Basis Analysis - The spot price was 23,270, and the basis was + 100, indicating a neutral situation [2]. 3. Inventory Analysis - On December 8, LME zinc inventory increased by 2,375 tons to 57,750 tons compared to the previous day, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc inventory warrants decreased by 2,332 tons to 58,397 tons compared to the previous day, showing a neutral situation [2]. 4. Market Trend Analysis - The previous day, Shanghai Zinc showed a fluctuating and rising trend, closing above the 20 - day moving average, with the 20 - day moving average rising, showing a bullish sign [2]. 5. Main Position Analysis - The main net position was short, and short positions increased, showing a bearish sign [2]. 6. Futures Exchange Zinc Futures Market on December 8 - The trading volume of zinc futures on December 8 was 275,955 lots, and the trading value was 3.19074597 billion yuan. The total open interest was 214,900 lots, an increase of 6,840 lots [3]. 7. Domestic Main Spot Market on December 8 - The domestic zinc concentrate spot TC was 1,800 yuan/metal ton (down 100 yuan), and the comprehensive TC for imported zinc concentrate was 70 US dollars/dry ton (unchanged). The prices of 0 zinc in Shanghai, Guangdong, Tianjin, and Zhejiang were 23,270 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan), 22,980 yuan/ton (up 20 yuan), 23,090 yuan/ton (up 15 yuan), and 23,260 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan) respectively [4]. 8. Zinc Ingot Inventory in Main Markets from November 27 to December 8 - The total zinc ingot inventory in main markets decreased from 14.04 million tons on November 27 to 13.23 million tons on December 8, a decrease of 0.53 million tons compared to December 1 and a decrease of 0.16 million tons compared to December 4 [5]. 9. Shanghai Futures Exchange Zinc Warrant Report on December 8 - The total zinc warrants on the Shanghai Futures Exchange on December 8 were 58,397 tons, a decrease of 2,332 tons. The warrants in Guangdong decreased by 1,578 tons, and those in Tianjin decreased by 424 tons [6]. 10. LME Zinc Inventory Distribution and Statistics on December 8 - The previous day's LME zinc inventory was 55,375 tons, with an inflow of 2,475 tons and an outflow of 100 tons, and the current inventory was 57,750 tons, an increase of 2,375 tons [8]. 11. Zinc Concentrate Price in Main Cities on December 8 - The prices of 50% - grade zinc concentrate in cities such as Jiyuan, Chenzhou, and Kunming were 19,860 yuan, 19,760 yuan, and 19,760 yuan respectively, with price changes ranging from - 10 yuan to + 290 yuan [10]. 12. Zinc Ingot Smelter Price on December 8 - The prices of 0 zinc ingots from different smelters such as Hunan Zhuzhou Pei, San Shi Huludao Zinc Industry, and Guangdong Zhongjin Lingnan were 23,400 yuan, 23,830 yuan, and 23,130 yuan respectively [13]. 13. Domestic Refined Zinc Production in November 2025 - The actual refined zinc production in November 2025 was 496,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.64%, a year - on - year increase of 18.48%, and a 4.93% decrease compared to the planned value. The capacity utilization rate was 69.45%, and the planned production for December was 477,500 tons [16]. 14. Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee on December 8 - The domestic zinc concentrate processing fees for 50% - grade in different regions ranged from 1,600 yuan/metal ton to 2,200 yuan/metal ton, with price changes from - 300 yuan to 0 yuan. The processing fee for imported 48% - grade zinc concentrate was 70 US dollars/dry ton [18]. 15. Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking on December 8 - The total trading volume of zinc by members of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 292,199 lots, an increase of 34,488 lots. The total long - position was 74,214 lots, an increase of 2,056 lots, and the total short - position was 71,587 lots, an increase of 2,744 lots [21].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] Core View - Zinc prices have fallen and there is restocking behavior in the spot market, but social inventories are increasing and are about to exceed the same period in the past five years. Spot liquidity has improved, but procurement remains cautious. The cost of domestic and imported zinc concentrates (TC) is rising, leading to higher smelting profits and continuous smelting enthusiasm. The supply is expected to increase, and the pressure on the supply side is prominent. Even during the peak consumption season, domestic inventory accumulation is expected, and the current inventory accumulation is accelerating. If the peak consumption season expectations are disappointed, zinc prices will face significant pressure and may show a relatively weak trend compared to other non - ferrous metals, but the impact of overseas inventories needs to be monitored [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is $135.09 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,380 yuan per ton, down 60 yuan from the previous trading day, with a premium of 30 yuan per ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,320 yuan per ton, down 60 yuan, with a discount of 35 yuan per ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,340 yuan per ton, down 60 yuan, with a discount of 10 yuan per ton [1] - **Futures**: On November 24, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened and closed at 22,390 yuan per ton, down 95 yuan from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 104,516 lots, and the open interest was 96,310 lots. The highest price was 22,445 yuan per ton, and the lowest was 22,245 yuan per ton [2] - **Inventory**: As of November 24, 2025, SMM's seven - region zinc ingot inventory was 151,000 tons, down 1,700 tons from the previous period. LME zinc inventory was 47,425 tons, up 100 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - Zinc prices have declined, and there is restocking in the spot market. Social inventories are increasing and approaching the five - year average. Spot liquidity has improved, but procurement remains cautious. The TC of domestic and imported zinc concentrates is rising, leading to higher smelting profits and continuous smelting enthusiasm. The supply is expected to increase, and the pressure on the supply side is prominent. Even during the peak consumption season, domestic inventory accumulation is expected, and the current inventory accumulation is accelerating. If the peak consumption season expectations are disappointed, zinc prices will face significant pressure and may show a relatively weak trend compared to other non - ferrous metals, but the impact of overseas inventories needs to be monitored [4] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View - The domestic spot discount of zinc has been significantly repaired, and the overseas inventory has increased, but the spot premium remains at a high level. The social inventory is expected to continue to decline. After the absolute price of zinc fell, the downstream's acceptance of the price increased significantly. In terms of fundamentals, the domestic mining TC in November further decreased significantly, and the overseas mining TC also decreased synchronously. The smelters actively purchased domestic and foreign ores, and the import TC guidance price for the first quarter of next year decreased month - on - month. The short - term TC still shows a downward trend. The smelting end is under pressure, and the comprehensive smelting profit is severely compressed. The high - cost areas are facing comprehensive losses, and the smelting enthusiasm will be suppressed, so the supply - side pressure is expected to decrease more than expected. The overseas warrant inventory is still at a low level, and there is still a warrant risk. Most of the micro - data has changed from bearish to bullish. In terms of the macro - aspect, the expectation of interest rate cuts in the US in December and January has weakened, and the zinc price is expected to be resistant to the decline caused by the emotional recession [5]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium is $129.76 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price increased by 100 yuan/ton to 22,420 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of 30 yuan/ton; the SMM Guangdong zinc spot price increased by 90 yuan/ton to 22,360 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 45 yuan/ton; the Tianjin zinc spot price increased by 110 yuan/ton to 22,380 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 10 yuan/ton [2]. - **Futures**: On November 19, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,360 yuan/ton and closed at 22,420 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 91,247 lots, and the position was 67,487 lots. The highest intraday price reached 22,475 yuan/ton, and the lowest reached 22,330 yuan/ton [3]. - **Inventory**: As of November 19, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 156,600 tons, a decrease of 1,300 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, the LME zinc inventory was 45,075 tons, an increase of 1,550 tons from the previous trading day [4]. 3.2 Strategy - **Unilateral**: Cautiously bullish [6]. - **Arbitrage**: Inter - period positive spread arbitrage [6].