Group 1: General Information - Report Name: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: August 22, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin, Yu Feifei [3][4] Group 2: Market Review - **Futures Market Quotes**: - The main contract of SHFE zinc 2510 closed at 22,240 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan with a 0.14% increase, with reduced volume and positions. The positions decreased by 568 lots to 110,426 lots. - LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,875 tons to 69,375 tons, with the entire decline from Singapore. The 0 - 3 spread was C9.33. - The domestic zinc market has a core contradiction of abundant concentrates and sufficient refined zinc, and social inventory has been accumulating, reflecting the surplus pressure. From January to July, the cumulative year - on - year increase in imported zinc concentrates was 45.2%. In August, the processing fee continued to rise, with the imported zinc concentrate index at 90.3 US dollars/dry ton and the domestic zinc concentrate TC stable at 3,900 yuan/metal ton. High TC and high sulfuric acid prices have expanded smelters' profit margins. In August, there were few domestic maintenance activities, and the refined zinc output may increase to 621,500 tons. - The downstream is in the off - season, and although there are policy supports on the demand side, the weakness is still obvious. The operating load in the primary consumption field remains at a low level. Overall, the pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic markets continues. The domestic market is difficult to fall deeply due to the influence of the overseas market. There is an expectation of a switch from the off - season to the peak season in late August, and the callback space of SHFE zinc is limited, with short - term wide - range fluctuations [7]. Group 3: Industry News - **Shanghai Market**: On August 21, 2025, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was 22,240 - 22,305 yuan/ton, and that of Shuangyan was 22,360 - 22,415 yuan/ton. In the morning, the market quoted a premium of 20 - 40 yuan/ton to the SMM average price. In the second trading session, ordinary domestic zinc was quoted at a discount of 10 yuan/ton to the 2509 contract [8]. - **Ningbo Market**: The mainstream price of 0 zinc was 22,220 - 22,275 yuan/ton. The regular brands in Ningbo were quoted at a discount of 40 yuan/ton to the 2509 contract and at par to the Shanghai spot price [8]. - **Tianjin Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was 22,210 - 22,280 yuan/ton, and that of Zijin was 22,230 - 22,310 yuan/ton. 0 zinc was generally quoted at a discount of 30 - 50 yuan/ton to the 2509 contract, and Zijin was quoted at a discount of 0 - 30 yuan/ton to the 2509 contract. The Tianjin market was at a discount of about 20 yuan/ton to the Shanghai market [8][9]. - **Guangdong Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was 22,150 - 22,255 yuan/ton. The mainstream brands were quoted at a discount of 70 yuan/ton to the 2510 contract and at a discount of 30 yuan/ton to the Shanghai spot price, and the price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong narrowed [9]. Group 4: Data Overview - The report provides data on the seven - region weekly zinc ingot inventory of SMM, LME zinc inventory, the price trends of zinc in two markets, and the SHFE monthly spread, with data sources from Wind, SMM, and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [13][14]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish; Arbitrage: Neutral [5] 2) Core View - The absolute price of zinc continues to decline, and the spot market is difficult to improve. Although the spot discount remains stable, the trading is still sluggish. The transportation in the Tianjin market is affected by the parade and the SCO meeting, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm is relatively good. The import TC is still rising, the smelters have sufficient raw material inventory, and the overall upward trend remains unchanged. The smelting profit of the industry remains above 1000 yuan/ton, and the smelting enthusiasm remains. The current pressure on the supply side and the expected future pressure remain unchanged. The consumption is strong in the off - season and shows signs of transitioning to the peak season, but the domestic inventory accumulation expectation remains unchanged, and if the peak - season consumption expectation fails, the zinc price will face greater pressure [4] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is -$8.65/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is -100 yuan/ton to 22,200 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day, with a premium of -40 yuan/ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is -110 yuan/ton to 22,170 yuan/ton, with a premium of -85 yuan/ton; Tianjin zinc spot price is -110 yuan/ton to 22,180 yuan/ton, with a premium of -60 yuan/ton [1] - **Futures**: On August 19, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,320 yuan/ton, closed at 22,205 yuan/ton, -190 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The trading volume was 110,478 lots, and the open interest was 105,576 lots. The highest price was 22,345 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,180 yuan/ton [2] - **Inventory**: As of August 19, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 135,400 tons, a change of 6,300 tons compared with the previous period. As of the same date, LME zinc inventory was 72,200 tons, a change of -3,650 tons compared with the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - **Cost**: Import TC is rising, and smelters have sufficient raw material inventory with an upward trend [4] - **Smelting**: The industry smelting profit remains above 1000 yuan/ton, and the smelting enthusiasm remains, with unchanged supply - side pressure [4] - **Consumption**: The consumption is strong in the off - season and shows signs of transitioning to the peak season, but the domestic inventory accumulation expectation remains unchanged. If the peak - season consumption expectation fails, the zinc price will face pressure [4] Strategy - **Unilateral**: Cautiously bearish. Zinc price may be relatively weak when other non - ferrous metals are strong, but the impact of overseas inventory needs attention [5] - **Arbitrage**: Neutral [5]

Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no specific report industry investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core View - Zinc prices opened high and then declined, with the operating center still at a relatively high level. Downstream buyers showed strong fear of high prices, leading to a further slight expansion of the discount and冷清 market transactions. The TC of domestic and imported zinc ores continued to rise, increasing smelting profits and maintaining smelting enthusiasm, with the expectation of increased supply remaining unchanged. Even during the peak consumption season, the expectation of inventory accumulation in China remains unchanged, and the current inventory accumulation is accelerating. If the expectation of the peak consumption season fails, zinc prices will face significant pressure and may show a relatively weak trend, but the impact of overseas inventories needs to be watched out for [4] Group 3: Summary by Category 1. Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium was -$4.76 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price increased by 60 yuan/ton to 22,560 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -55 yuan/ton; the SMM Guangdong zinc spot price increased by 60 yuan/ton to 22,540 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -75 yuan/ton; the Tianjin zinc spot price increased by 60 yuan/ton to 22,550 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -65 yuan/ton [1] - **Futures**: On August 13, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22,720 yuan/ton, closed at 22,600 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 78,345 lots, and the open interest was 85,986 lots. The highest intraday price reached 22,775 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,600 yuan/ton [2] - **Inventory**: As of August 13, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 119,200 tons, a change of 6,000 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 78,475 tons, a change of -1,075 tons from the previous trading day [3] 2. Strategy - **Single - side trading**: Cautiously bearish - **Arbitrage**: Neutral [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The previous trading day saw Shanghai zinc experiencing a volatile downward trend, closing with a negative candlestick, increased trading volume, a reduction in long - positions, and an increase in short - positions. The market may maintain a volatile weakening trend in the short term. Technically, the price is above the long - term moving average with strong support, but short - term indicators suggest a decline in bullish power and an increase in bearish power. The recommendation is that Shanghai zinc ZN2509 will show a volatile weakening trend [22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Analysis - In April 2025, global zinc plate production was 1.153 million tons, consumption was 1.1302 million tons, with a supply surplus of 22,700 tons. From January to April, production was 4.4514 million tons, consumption was 4.5079 million tons, with a supply shortage of 56,500 tons. Global zinc mine production from January to April was 4.0406 million tons, which is a bullish factor [2]. - The basis is +5 with a spot price of 22,350, indicating a neutral situation [2]. - On July 31, LME zinc inventory decreased by 4,250 tons to 104,800 tons, and SHFE zinc inventory warrants decreased by 174 tons to 15,058 tons, which is a bullish factor [2]. - The previous day, Shanghai zinc showed a volatile downward trend, closing below the 20 - day moving average, while the 20 - day moving average was upward, indicating a neutral situation [2]. - The main positions are net short, and short positions are decreasing, which is a bearish factor [2]. 3.2 Futures Exchange Market - On July 31, for the zinc futures contracts, the 2508 contract had a settlement price of 22,650, an opening price of 22,585, a high of 22,640, a low of 22,280, and a closing price of 22,355, with a decrease of 295 or 285. The trading volume was 14,662 lots, and the open interest decreased by 5,736 to 11,618 lots. Similar data are provided for other contracts such as 2509, 2510, etc. [3]. 3.3 Domestic Spot Market - On July 31, the price of zinc concentrate in Lin was 17,020 yuan/ton, down 320 yuan/ton; the price of zinc ingot was 22,350 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan/ton; the price of galvanized sheet was 4,108 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the price of galvanized pipe was 4,498 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of zinc alloy in Ningbo was 22,850 yuan/ton, down 380 yuan/ton; the price of zinc powder in Changsha was 27,360 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan/ton; the price of zinc oxide in Taizhou was 20,700 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan/ton; the price of secondary zinc oxide in Chenzhou was 7,694 yuan/ton, unchanged [4]. 3.4 Zinc Ingot Inventory - From July 17 to July 28, the total social inventory of zinc ingots in major Chinese markets increased from 74,200 tons to 83,600 tons. Compared with July 21, it increased by 8,100 tons; compared with July 24, it increased by 2,800 tons [5]. 3.5 Zinc Warehouse Receipts - On July 31, the total SHFE zinc warehouse receipts were 15,058 tons, a decrease of 174 tons. The warehouse receipts in Tianjin decreased by 174 tons to 11,522 tons, while other regions such as Shanghai, Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang had relatively stable or zero - change warehouse receipt situations [6]. 3.6 LME Zinc Inventory - On July 31, the LME zinc inventory decreased by 4,250 tons to 104,800 tons [2][8]. 3.7 Zinc Ingot Smelter Prices - On July 31, the prices of 0 zinc ingots from various smelters such as Hunan Zhuzhou Smelting, Liaoning Huludao Zinc Industry, etc., all decreased by 380 yuan/ton [14]. 3.8 Refined Zinc Production - In June 2025, the planned production of refined zinc was 459,700 tons, and the actual production was 471,800 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 11.67% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%. The production was 2.63% higher than the planned value, and the capacity utilization rate was 87.10%. The planned production for July is 470,300 tons [16]. 3.9 Zinc Concentrate Processing Fees - On July 31, zinc concentrate processing fees in different regions varied. For example, in some regions with a 50% grade, the processing fees ranged from 3,400 - 4,000 yuan/metal ton, and the imported 48% grade had a processing fee of 70 US dollars/dry ton [18]. 3.10 Futures Company Trading and Position Ranking - For the zinc contract zn2509 on July 31, in terms of trading volume, the top three futures companies were Guotai Junan, CITIC Futures, and Dongzheng Futures. In terms of long - positions, the top three were CITIC Futures, Guotai Junan, and Dongzheng Futures. In terms of short - positions, the top three were CITIC Futures, Guotai Junan, and Yong'an Futures [20].

Report Overview - The report is an early morning report on Shanghai zinc futures on July 28, 2025, released by the Investment Consulting Department of Dayue Futures [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The previous trading day saw Shanghai zinc oscillate and decline, with shrinking trading volume and both long and short positions reducing, more so for the long - side. The market may oscillate and decline in the short - term. Technically, the price is above the long - term moving average with strong support. The short - term KDJ indicator is declining in the overbought area, while the trend indicator shows increasing long - side strength and decreasing short - side strength. It is recommended that Shanghai zinc ZN2509 will oscillate and decline [20] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - In April 2025, global zinc plate production was 1.153 million tons and consumption was 1.1302 million tons, with a surplus of 22,700 tons. From January to April, production was 4.4514 million tons and consumption was 4.5079 million tons, with a shortage of 56,500 tons. From January to April, global zinc ore production was 4.0406 million tons, which is a positive factor [2] Basis Analysis - The spot price is 22,830, and the basis is - 55, indicating a neutral situation [2] Inventory Analysis - On July 25, LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,125 tons to 115,775 tons compared to the previous day, and SHFE zinc inventory warrants increased by 1,349 tons to 13,289 tons compared to the previous day, a neutral situation [2] Futures Market Analysis - On July 25, for different delivery months of zinc futures, prices generally declined. For example, the 2509 contract had a settlement price of 22,980, an opening price of 22,925, a high of 22,935, a low of 22,755, and a closing price of 22,885, with a decline of 95 in one measure and 135 in another [3] Spot Market Analysis - On July 25, in the domestic spot market, the price of zinc concentrate in Chenzhou was 17,400 yuan/ton (down 70 yuan/ton), zinc ingots in Shanghai were 22,830 yuan/ton (down 80 yuan/ton), galvanized sheets in China were 4,089 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan/ton), and galvanized pipes in China were 4,457 yuan/ton (up 19 yuan/ton) [4] Inventory Statistics - From July 14 to July 24, 2025, the total social inventory of zinc ingots in major Chinese markets increased from 74,200 tons to 80,800 tons. Compared with July 17, it increased by 6,600 tons, and compared with July 21, it increased by 5,400 tons [5] Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee - On July 25, the zinc concentrate processing fees in different regions remained relatively stable. For example, in Fift alle, the processing fee for 50% zinc concentrate was 3,700 - 3,900 yuan/metal ton, with an average of 3,800 yuan/metal ton [17] Member Trading and Position Ranking - For the zn2509 contract on July 25, in terms of trading volume, Guotai Junan had the highest volume of 55,468, an increase of 5,329 compared to the previous day. In terms of long positions, CITIC Futures held 24,115, a decrease of 18. In terms of short positions, CITIC Futures held 11,500, an increase of 748 [18]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish [4] - Arbitrage: Neutral [4] 2. Core View - The spot premium of zinc continues to weaken. With sufficient raw material reserves downstream, positive US macro - data, and rising commodity prices, pressure on zinc premium will continue. The supply surplus expectation remains unchanged in the second half of the year due to increasing import ore TC, rising zinc concentrate production, and high domestic smelting profits. Although downstream consumption shows some resilience, it cannot offset the high growth on the supply side, leading to a continuous inventory build - up trend [3]. 3. Key Data Summary Spot Market - LME zinc spot premium is -$8.95 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price rose by 60 yuan/ton to 22,110 yuan/ton, with the premium down 10 yuan/ton to 20 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price rose by 60 yuan/ton to 22,030 yuan/ton, with the premium down 10 yuan/ton to - 60 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price rose by 70 yuan/ton to 22,070 yuan/ton, with the premium unchanged at - 20 yuan/ton [1]. Futures Market - On July 17, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 21,975 yuan/ton and closed at 22,130 yuan/ton, up 115 yuan/ton. Trading volume was 77,512 lots, down 11,957 lots from the previous day, and positions were 67,223 lots, down 11,088 lots. The intraday price fluctuated between 21,970 yuan/ton and 22,170 yuan/ton [1]. Inventory - As of July 17, 2025, SMM's seven - region zinc ingot inventory was 93,500 tons, up 3,200 tons from last week. LME zinc inventory was 121,475 tons, up 125 tons from the previous day [1][2]. 4. Market Analysis - Spot market: The spot premium is weakening. Sufficient downstream raw material reserves and positive US macro - data will continue to pressure the zinc premium. - Cost side: Import ore TC is rising. Vedanta's Q2 report shows a 7% year - on - year increase in zinc concentrate production. High domestic smelting profits and sufficient raw material inventory of smelters lead to low procurement enthusiasm. - Consumption side: Downstream operating rates show resilience, but cannot offset the high growth on the supply side. Social inventory is increasing, and the inventory build - up trend is expected to continue in the second half of the year [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of zinc show that in April 2025, the global zinc sheet production was 1153000 tons, consumption was 1130200 tons, with a surplus of 22700 tons; from January to April, production was 4451400 tons, consumption was 4507900 tons, with a shortage of 56500 tons. The base - point is neutral, inventories are declining (LME and SHFE), the market is in a long - position - dominated situation, and the expected trend of zinc futures ZN2508 is to oscillate and decline [2]. - The previous trading day saw Shanghai zinc oscillate and decline, with increased trading volume, long - position reduction, and short - position increase. Technically, prices are above long - term moving averages, short - term indicators KDJ are declining, and the bullish power is decreasing while the bearish power is increasing. It is expected to oscillate and decline in the short term [20]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Zinc Futures Market Conditions - On July 1, 2025, the zinc futures of various delivery months on the futures exchange generally showed a downward trend. For example, the contract 2507 had a previous settlement price of 22490, a closing price of 22315, a decline of 175; the contract 2508 had a previous settlement price of 22435, a closing price of 22255, a decline of 180 [3]. 3.2 Spot Market Conditions - On July 1, 2025, the prices of various zinc - related products in the domestic spot market mostly declined. For example, zinc concentrate in Shuwai Village was priced at 17180 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan/ton; zinc ingots in Shanghai were priced at 22300 yuan/ton, down 210 yuan/ton [4]. 3.3 Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics - From June 5 to June 30, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets increased from 58300 tons to 61800 tons. Compared with last Thursday, it increased by 2800 tons; compared with last Monday, it increased by 3600 tons [5]. 3.4 Zinc Warehouse Receipt Report - On July 1, 2025, the zinc warehouse receipts in the futures exchange showed a decrease. For example, the SHFE zinc warehouse receipts decreased by 253 tons to 6824 tons [2]. 3.5 LME Zinc Inventory Distribution - On July 1, 2025, the LME zinc inventory decreased by 2575 tons to 114900 tons [2][8]. 3.6 Zinc Concentrate Price Summary - On July 1, 2025, the prices of zinc concentrates in major domestic cities were around 17000 - 17200 yuan/ton, with a decline of 170 yuan/ton [9]. 3.7 Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes - On July 1, 2025, the prices of zinc ingots from major domestic smelters mostly declined. For example, the price of 0 zinc ingots from Yunnan Chihong Zinc & Germanium was 22010 yuan/ton, down 270 yuan/ton [13]. 3.8 Domestic Refined Zinc Production Statistics - In May 2025, the production of refined zinc was 422500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.19%, a year - on - year decrease of 9.74%, and a 4.86% decrease compared with the planned value. The capacity utilization rate was 78%, and the planned production in June was 453700 tons [15]. 3.9 Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes - On July 1, 2025, the domestic zinc concentrate processing fees were mostly in the range of 3200 - 3900 yuan/metal ton, and the import processing fee was 50 US dollars/kiloton [17]. 3.10 Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking - For the contract zn2508 on July 1, 2025, in terms of trading volume, Guotai Junan ranked first with 52153 lots, a decrease of 15329 lots compared with the previous trading day; in terms of long positions, CITIC Futures ranked first with 13533 lots, an increase of 705 lots; in terms of short positions, CITIC Futures ranked first with 13802 lots, a decrease of 964 lots [19].

Supply Overview - In April 2025, global zinc mine production reached 1.0722 million tons, marking a year-on-year increase of 7% and a month-on-month increase of 6.4% [1] - From January to April 2025, global zinc mine production totaled 4.0406 million tons, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 2% [1] - Major overseas mines reported varying production levels in Q1, with total output from these mines amounting to 869,000 tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.5% but a month-on-month decrease of 1.5% [1][2] - Domestic zinc concentrate production in Q1 saw a year-on-year increase of 6.42% [1] Demand Overview - In April, global zinc consumption was 1.1302 million tons, showing a year-on-year increase of 1% and a month-on-month increase of 6% [3] - The downstream consumption index for zinc fell to 56.36% in May, a decrease of 1.7 percentage points, indicating a slowdown in demand [3] - The PMI for various downstream industries, including galvanizing and die-casting, showed values below 50, indicating contraction in these sectors [3] Price and Profitability Insights - The main zinc contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange faced pressure at the 23,000 yuan/ton level, with a recent low of 21,660 yuan/ton [1] - Domestic zinc concentrate producers are experiencing significant losses, with import losses reaching up to -572 yuan/ton, leading to a closure of import windows [1][2] - Despite the losses, domestic production profits remain substantial, estimated between 3,900 to 4,600 yuan/ton [1] Inventory and Market Dynamics - As of June 24, LME zinc inventories decreased by 49% year-on-year to 123,000 tons, with a month-on-month decline of 18% [4] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's zinc warehouse receipts fell by 91% year-on-year to 7,471 tons, indicating a tightening supply [4] - Domestic zinc ingot inventory stood at 58,400 tons, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 7% [4] Future Outlook - The combination of increased global zinc concentrate supply and seasonal demand weakness is expected to suppress zinc prices [5] - However, refining zinc prices may find support from smelting costs, import costs, and ongoing inventory reductions [5] - Potential positive developments in US-China tariff negotiations and a gradual recovery from the consumption off-season could lead to a rebound in zinc prices [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [4] - Arbitrage: Neutral [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The spot market's restocking enthusiasm is low before the Dragon Boat Festival. Strong current consumption supports the zinc price to oscillate at a high level, but consumption may face a test in June, and there is a possibility of a month - on - month decline after June. Attention should be paid to inventory changes [1][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is -$20.27/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is flat at 22,830 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the premium is up 25 yuan/ton to 440 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is down 10 yuan/ton to 22,850 yuan/ton, and the premium is up 15 yuan/ton to 460 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price is flat at 22,840 yuan/ton, and the premium is up 25 yuan/ton to 450 yuan/ton [1] - **Futures**: On May 29, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,300 yuan/ton and closed at 22,495 yuan/ton, up 135 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 184,818 lots, an increase of 22,593 lots from the previous trading day. The position was 119,380 lots, a decrease of 3,627 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest reaching 22,530 yuan/ton and the lowest 22,225 yuan/ton [1] - **Inventory**: As of May 29, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM is 75,000 tons, a decrease of 5,400 tons compared with the same period last week. As of May 29, 2025, the LME zinc inventory is 141,375 tons, a decrease of 2,075 tons from the previous trading day [2] Market Analysis - **Spot Market**: Traders continue to hold up prices, and the spot premium rises. The absolute price fluctuates, which does not meet the downstream's psychological expectations, so the pre - festival restocking enthusiasm is poor [3] - **Supply**: A zinc smelter in South China extended its maintenance due to an accident, and the specific resumption time is undetermined, which caused the zinc price to fluctuate and rise, but the rise lacks continuous power. The overseas mine output in the first quarter was lower than expected, but domestic smelters have sufficient raw material inventory. The TC in June will continue to rise, and smelting still makes a profit at the current TC price, so the supply pressure remains [3] - **Consumption**: The strong current consumption supports the zinc price to oscillate at a high level. Consumption may face a test in June. Since the time window for rush - exporting is approaching the end and there is an over - drafting situation, consumption may weaken month - on - month after June [3]

Core Viewpoint - The zinc market has been experiencing low-level fluctuations for nearly two months, with a focus on whether the supply from mines can meet demand in the future [2][7]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Since early April, zinc has faced widespread selling due to escalating international trade tensions, remaining below 22,500 points [2]. - Recent maintenance at zinc smelting plants has been higher than usual, despite stable processing fees for zinc ore [3][4]. - A significant zinc smelting plant in southern China extended its maintenance period, impacting production by an estimated 20,000 to 40,000 tons, which led to a price increase [3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - The decline in social zinc inventory continues, although the demand from downstream sectors remains resilient [5]. - The real estate sector's weakness has slowed the destocking of galvanized inventory, with new construction area starting in the first four months of 2025 down 23.8% year-on-year [5]. - Domestic zinc imports have reached historical highs, contributing to a stable supply environment for smelting plants [7][8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The mid-term outlook suggests increasing pressure on zinc supply due to the resumption of production at smelting plants and the seasonal slowdown in demand [7]. - Analysts predict that the zinc market may experience a shift towards a bearish trend as supply begins to outpace demand, with expectations of inventory accumulation starting in mid-June [7][8]. - The processing fees for zinc ore are expected to remain strong in the third quarter due to high demand, despite an anticipated oversupply of zinc ingots [8].