今日沪期锌走势：今日沪期锌弱势震荡寻底；沪锌2601主力合约开盘价23005元/吨，最高价23020元/ 吨，最低价22835元/吨，昨日结算价23140元/吨，今日收盘价22970元/吨，跌170元，跌幅0.73%。今日 沪锌2601主力合约成交量120568手减少17972手，持仓量59226手减少13967手。伦锌北京时间14：56最 新价报3057美元，涨22美元。 今日ccmn锌价统计：今日ccmn长江综合0#锌价报22970-23070元/吨，均价23020元，跌170元，1#锌价报 22880-22980元/吨，均价22930元，跌170元；广东现货0#锌报22610-22910元/吨，均价22760元，跌170 元，1#锌价22540-22840元/吨，均价22690元，跌170元。今日现货锌市场报价0#锌在22960-23070元/吨 之间，1#锌在22890-22980元/吨之间。对比沪期锌2601合约0#锌升水30-升水140元/吨，1#锌贴水40-升 水50元/吨。 ccmn锌市美联储分析：今日国内现货锌价大跌。 基本面方面，国内11月锌精矿产量为31.14万吨，较10月减少1.94万 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪锌期货早报-2025年12月09日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 沪锌: 1、基本面：外媒10月19日消息：世界金属统计局（WBMS）公布最新数据显 示，2025年9月，全球精炼锌产量为119.35万吨,消费量为122.92万吨,供应 短缺3.57万吨.1-9月,全球锌板产量为1036.32万吨,消费量为1073.69万吨, 供应短缺37.37万吨.9月份,全球锌矿产量为116.33万吨.1-9月,全球锌矿产 量为996.47万吨；偏多。 2、基差：现货23270，基差+100；中性。 3、库存：12月8日LME锌库存较上日增加2375吨至57750吨，12月8日上期所 锌库存仓单较上日减少2332吨至58397吨；中性。 4、盘面：昨日沪锌震荡上涨走势，收20日均线之上,20日均线向上；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净空头，空增；偏空。 6、预期：LME库存仓单开始增加；上期所仓单开始下降；沪锌ZN2601：震荡 回落。 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] Core View - Zinc prices have fallen and there is restocking behavior in the spot market, but social inventories are increasing and are about to exceed the same period in the past five years. Spot liquidity has improved, but procurement remains cautious. The cost of domestic and imported zinc concentrates (TC) is rising, leading to higher smelting profits and continuous smelting enthusiasm. The supply is expected to increase, and the pressure on the supply side is prominent. Even during the peak consumption season, domestic inventory accumulation is expected, and the current inventory accumulation is accelerating. If the peak consumption season expectations are disappointed, zinc prices will face significant pressure and may show a relatively weak trend compared to other non - ferrous metals, but the impact of overseas inventories needs to be monitored [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is $135.09 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,380 yuan per ton, down 60 yuan from the previous trading day, with a premium of 30 yuan per ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,320 yuan per ton, down 60 yuan, with a discount of 35 yuan per ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,340 yuan per ton, down 60 yuan, with a discount of 10 yuan per ton [1] - **Futures**: On November 24, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened and closed at 22,390 yuan per ton, down 95 yuan from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 104,516 lots, and the open interest was 96,310 lots. The highest price was 22,445 yuan per ton, and the lowest was 22,245 yuan per ton [2] - **Inventory**: As of November 24, 2025, SMM's seven - region zinc ingot inventory was 151,000 tons, down 1,700 tons from the previous period. LME zinc inventory was 47,425 tons, up 100 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - Zinc prices have declined, and there is restocking in the spot market. Social inventories are increasing and approaching the five - year average. Spot liquidity has improved, but procurement remains cautious. The TC of domestic and imported zinc concentrates is rising, leading to higher smelting profits and continuous smelting enthusiasm. The supply is expected to increase, and the pressure on the supply side is prominent. Even during the peak consumption season, domestic inventory accumulation is expected, and the current inventory accumulation is accelerating. If the peak consumption season expectations are disappointed, zinc prices will face significant pressure and may show a relatively weak trend compared to other non - ferrous metals, but the impact of overseas inventories needs to be monitored [4] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View - The domestic spot discount of zinc has been significantly repaired, and the overseas inventory has increased, but the spot premium remains at a high level. The social inventory is expected to continue to decline. After the absolute price of zinc fell, the downstream's acceptance of the price increased significantly. In terms of fundamentals, the domestic mining TC in November further decreased significantly, and the overseas mining TC also decreased synchronously. The smelters actively purchased domestic and foreign ores, and the import TC guidance price for the first quarter of next year decreased month - on - month. The short - term TC still shows a downward trend. The smelting end is under pressure, and the comprehensive smelting profit is severely compressed. The high - cost areas are facing comprehensive losses, and the smelting enthusiasm will be suppressed, so the supply - side pressure is expected to decrease more than expected. The overseas warrant inventory is still at a low level, and there is still a warrant risk. Most of the micro - data has changed from bearish to bullish. In terms of the macro - aspect, the expectation of interest rate cuts in the US in December and January has weakened, and the zinc price is expected to be resistant to the decline caused by the emotional recession [5]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium is $129.76 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price increased by 100 yuan/ton to 22,420 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of 30 yuan/ton; the SMM Guangdong zinc spot price increased by 90 yuan/ton to 22,360 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 45 yuan/ton; the Tianjin zinc spot price increased by 110 yuan/ton to 22,380 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 10 yuan/ton [2]. - **Futures**: On November 19, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,360 yuan/ton and closed at 22,420 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 91,247 lots, and the position was 67,487 lots. The highest intraday price reached 22,475 yuan/ton, and the lowest reached 22,330 yuan/ton [3]. - **Inventory**: As of November 19, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 156,600 tons, a decrease of 1,300 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, the LME zinc inventory was 45,075 tons, an increase of 1,550 tons from the previous trading day [4]. 3.2 Strategy - **Unilateral**: Cautiously bullish [6]. - **Arbitrage**: Inter - period positive spread arbitrage [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. - Arbitrage: Neutral. [5] 2. Core View of the Report - In November, domestic and overseas zinc ore TC decreased significantly. With strong demand from smelters for ore procurement, TC is expected to decline further. - As TC drops, smelting comprehensive profit has been severely compressed, suppressing smelting enthusiasm and potentially reducing supply - side pressure more than expected. - Overseas warehouse receipt inventory remains low with risks, and domestic inventory is falling, with a possible downward shift in the inventory center. Micro - data is turning from bearish to bullish, and the macro - economic background remains favorable. [4] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is $152.26/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,570 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a premium of - 45 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong and Tianjin zinc spot prices are 22,530 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a premium of - 85 yuan/ton. [1] - **Futures**: On November 10, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22,720 yuan/ton, closed at 22,670 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 104,875 lots, and the position was 110,752 lots. The highest price was 22,735 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,530 yuan/ton. [2] - **Inventory**: As of November 10, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots is 159,600 tons, up 900 tons from the previous period. LME zinc inventory is 34,900 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. [3] Market Analysis - Domestic and overseas zinc ore TC decreased significantly in November. With strong procurement demand from smelters, TC is expected to decline further. - The smelting comprehensive profit has been compressed from about 1,400 yuan/ton to about 300 yuan/ton, and high - cost areas are facing losses, which will suppress smelting enthusiasm and reduce supply - side pressure. - Overseas warehouse receipt inventory is low with risks, and domestic inventory is falling, with a possible downward shift in the inventory center. Micro - data is turning from bearish to bullish, and the macro - economic background remains favorable. [4] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. - Arbitrage: Neutral. [5]

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The zinc market is experiencing a decline in domestic inventory levels, while the supply-demand dynamics indicate a potential for price fluctuations within a defined range due to varying conditions in domestic and international markets [1][2]. Group 1: Inventory and Price Trends - As of November 6, the total zinc ingot inventory across seven locations in China is 158,700 tons, a decrease of 2,700 tons from October 30 and 3,000 tons from November 3, indicating a reduction in domestic inventory [1]. - On October 31, the Shanghai zinc futures inventory recorded 103,416 tons, down by 5,752 tons from the previous trading day [1]. - On November 7, the spot price for Shanghai 0 zinc ingots was quoted at 22,640 yuan/ton, which is at a discount of 80 yuan/ton compared to the futures main price of 22,720 yuan/ton [1]. Group 2: Market Analysis and Outlook - According to Shenwan Hongyuan Futures, the processing fees for zinc concentrate remain acceptable, and smelting profits have turned positive, suggesting a potential increase in smelting output [2]. - The China Iron and Steel Association reported a weekly increase in galvanized sheet inventory, while infrastructure investment growth is slowing, and the automotive sector shows positive growth [2]. - Guizhou Futures noted a decline in domestic zinc ore processing fees, while import processing fees remain stable, indicating a demand for winter storage of raw materials [2]. - The overall supply-demand situation for zinc is not significantly different, leading to expectations of range-bound price movements, with a suggested trading range of 22,000 to 23,000 yuan/ton for Shanghai zinc [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic zinc fundamentals have not changed significantly recently. Although the zinc concentrate processing fee has been adjusted down, smelters are still profitable, and the supply of refined zinc continues to increase. The overseas inventory has slightly increased but remains at a relatively low level. Coupled with the impact of the capital side, the LME zinc price is strong. The pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic markets has further intensified, and the export profit has further widened. The zinc price in Shanghai is likely to rise rather than fall, and one can try to go long at low prices. [4] - The traditional peak season for zinc consumption is coming to an end, and domestic zinc consumption is expected to gradually weaken. However, attention should still be paid to the boosting effect of domestic policies on consumption. [4] - The export window has opened, and some domestic zinc ingots have been delivered to warehouses in Southeast Asia. The export volume and frequency need to be monitored. If there is a large - scale delivery overseas, one should stop profit in time for the previous operation of shorting SHFE and going long LME, and change the strategy to go long SHFE and short LME in advance. [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Trading Logic - In the mining end, domestic smelters have been continuously snapping up domestic zinc concentrates, leading to a continuous decline in domestic zinc concentrate processing fees. Imported ore is still at a loss, but due to the continuous decline in domestic zinc concentrate processing fees, imported zinc concentrate traders have also reduced their quotes. [4] - At the smelting end, the recent decline in zinc prices and domestic TC has narrowed smelting profits. However, the by - product revenue is still considerable, and smelters' profits are still around 1,000 yuan/ton, with the smelting start - up rate remaining high. In October, although some domestic smelters carried out maintenance, some previously - maintained smelters resumed production, and the overall domestic refined zinc output may increase significantly. [4] - In terms of consumption, the traditional peak season for zinc consumption is passing, and domestic zinc consumption is expected to gradually weaken. [4] - Inventory data shows that as of October 23, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 162,100 tons, a decrease of 3,200 tons compared with October 20 and a decrease of 600 tons compared with October 16. The LME zinc inventory on October 23 was 37,600 tons, an increase of 275 tons compared with October 17. [4] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: One can try to go long on zinc in Shanghai at low prices. [4] - Arbitrage: One can pre - arrange the operation of going long SHFE and shorting LME according to the export situation. [4] Chapter 2: Market Data - No specific data analysis content provided in the given text, only some market data indicators such as spot premium, absolute price and monthly spread, trading volume and open interest of Shanghai zinc, social inventory, etc. are listed. [6][12][15] Chapter 3: Fundamental Data Zinc Ore Supply - Global zinc concentrate production from January to August 2025 was 8.2907 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 593,700 tons or 7.71%. In July, global zinc concentrate production was 1.0976 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 127,500 tons or 13.14%. [28] - In September 2025, SMM's domestic zinc concentrate production was 314,500 metal tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.79% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.99%. In October, it is expected to be 300,900 metal tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.32%. [28] - As of September, domestic smelter raw material inventory increased by 10.63 days to 26.3 days compared with the same period last year. Recently, although the raw material inventory of smelters has decreased month - on - month, it is still above the safety production margin. [28][42] - The inventory of zinc concentrates at major domestic ports increased by 10,800 tons to 391,400 tons month - on - month. [4][28] Zinc Ore Import - From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume of zinc concentrates was 4.008 million tons (physical tons), a cumulative year - on - year increase of 40.49%. In September, the import volume of zinc concentrates was 505,400 tons (physical tons), a month - on - month increase of 8.15% and a year - on - year increase of 24.94%. [38] - In October, considering the seasonal reduction of mines in the fourth quarter and the strong production enthusiasm of smelters driven by profits, the demand for zinc ore is high. However, the loss of imported zinc ore in October has further expanded compared with September, and domestic smelters are actively buying domestic zinc ore instead of imported ones. The spot import of imported zinc ore is light, and the import volume in October is expected to have no further room for growth. [30] Domestic Ore Total Supply - Overall, the supply of domestic ore has decreased, and there is an expected reduction in imported zinc concentrates. The domestic zinc concentrate supply in October is expected to decrease. [41] Zinc Ore Processing Fee - The monthly processing fee for Zn50 domestic zinc concentrates in November is 3,000 yuan/ton; on October 24, the weekly processing fee for Zn50 domestic zinc concentrates was reduced by 150 yuan to 3,250 yuan/metal ton, and the SMM imported zinc concentrate index decreased by $8.5/ton dry to $110.25/ton dry month - on - month. [46] - Currently, the profit of domestic mines is about 4,220 yuan/ton, and domestic smelters' production loss is about 700 yuan/ton (excluding by - product revenue). Including by - product revenue, smelters' profit is about 1,000 yuan/ton. [47] Global Refined Zinc Production - From January to August 2025, global refined zinc production was 9.1482 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12,700 tons or 0.14%; global refined zinc consumption was 8.9683 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16,800 tons or 0.19%. From January to August 2025, the global refined zinc surplus was 179,900 tons. [51] - In August 2025, global refined zinc production was 1.2269 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.35%. The global refined zinc demand was 1.179 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.12%. The global refined zinc surplus was 47,900 tons. [51] Domestic Refined Zinc Supply - In September 2025, the operating rate of domestic refined zinc enterprises was 92.32%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.02%. By scale, the operating rate of large - scale refined zinc enterprises was 93.15%, a month - on - month increase of 0.06%; that of medium - scale refined zinc enterprises was 94.31%, a month - on - month decrease of 10.23%; and that of small - scale refined zinc enterprises was 84.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.45%. [54] - According to SMM data, the SMM China refined zinc output in September decreased by 26,100 tons or 4.17% month - on - month to 600,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.19%. The cumulative output from January to September was 5.069 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.85%. It is expected that the domestic refined zinc output in October 2025 will be 622,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 22,600 tons or 3.77%, and a year - on - year increase of 22.54%. The cumulative output from January to October 2025 is expected to be 5.692 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.2%. [54] Zinc Ingot Import and Export - From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume of refined zinc was 258,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 19.27%. In September, the import volume of refined zinc was 22,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3,000 tons or 11.61%, and a year - on - year decrease of 57.03%. In September, the export volume of refined zinc was 2,500 tons, with a net import of 20,200 tons. [57] - In October, the domestic refined zinc output is expected to increase, but considering that the import window is basically closed, the import of zinc may decrease. The domestic refined zinc supply may increase slightly month - on - month, and attention should be paid to the export situation. [58]

Core Viewpoint - The zinc market is experiencing fluctuations with a slight increase in futures prices, driven by export opportunities and inventory dynamics [1][2][3] Market Performance - As of October 24, 2025, the main contract for Shanghai zinc futures closed at 22,355 CNY/ton, with a weekly increase of 2.03% [1] - The weekly trading range was between 21,885 CNY/ton and 22,375 CNY/ton, with a total increase in open interest of 42,945 contracts [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) reported an increase in global zinc supply surplus to 47,900 tons in August 2025, up from 38,700 tons in July [2] - Domestic smelting supply remains stable while overseas production is decreasing, leading to a widening price gap [3] Inventory and Export Insights - As of October 23, 2025, the London Metal Exchange (LME) reported zinc registered warrants of 24,850 tons and a reduction in inventory by 600 tons to 34,700 tons [2] - Export profits for zinc ingots to Southeast Asia exceeded 1,900 CNY/ton, indicating strong demand in that region [2] Institutional Perspectives - Guotou Anxin Futures noted that low LME zinc inventory and tight overseas spot markets support high volatility in zinc prices, with a short-term resistance level at 23,000 CNY/ton [3] - Nanhua Futures highlighted a weak domestic market relative to overseas, with a focus on the potential for export opportunities and macroeconomic drivers [3]

Core Insights - The London Metal Exchange (LME) reported a continued decline in zinc inventory, reaching 41,950 tons, marking a new low in over two years [1] - In contrast, the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) showed a slight accumulation of zinc inventory, increasing by 1.24% to 100,544 tons, which is the highest level in over a year [1] Inventory Comparison - As of September 29, 2025, LME zinc inventory was 41,950 tons, down from 42,775 tons on September 26, 2025 [5] - SHFE zinc inventory on September 26, 2025, was 100,544 tons, reflecting a continuous increase over fourteen weeks [1][5] - The trend indicates that declining inventories on domestic and international exchanges generally support price increases, while rising inventories may exert downward pressure on prices [3]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The report suggests that the Shanghai zinc futures (ZN2511) are expected to oscillate weakly. The conclusion is based on a comprehensive analysis of multiple factors, including the fundamental supply - demand situation, basis, inventory, market trends, and positions of major players [2][20]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Fundamentals - In July 2025, global zinc sheet production was 1.1515 million tons and consumption was 1.1629 million tons, resulting in a supply shortage of 11,300 tons. From January to July, production was 7.9452 million tons and consumption was 8.1585 million tons, with a supply shortage of 213,300 tons. In July, global zinc ore production was 1.0656 million tons, and from January to July, it was 7.3437 million tons [2]. 2. Basis - The spot price of zinc was 21,860 yuan, and the basis was +0, indicating a neutral situation [2]. 3. Inventory - On September 24, LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,375 tons to 44,400 tons, while SHFE zinc inventory warrants increased by 744 tons to 57,357 tons [2][6]. 4. Market Trends - The previous day, Shanghai zinc futures showed an oscillating downward trend, closing below the 20 - day moving average, with the 20 - day moving average pointing downward, presenting a bearish signal [2]. 5. Major Player Positions - The major players held a net long position, but the long positions decreased, showing a bullish tendency [2]. 6. Futures Market Quotes on September 24 - For the zinc futures contract, different delivery months had various price movements. For example, the 2510 contract had a previous settlement price of 21,945 yuan, a closing price of 21,845 yuan, and a decrease of 100 yuan. The trading volume was 38,405 lots, and the trading value was 420.67467 million yuan [3]. 7. Domestic Spot Market Quotes on September 24 - The prices of zinc - related products such as zinc concentrate, zinc ingots, galvanized sheets, galvanized pipes, zinc alloys, zinc powder, zinc oxide, and secondary zinc oxide all showed different degrees of decline [4]. 8. Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics in Major Domestic Markets - From September 11 to September 22, the total zinc ingot inventory in major domestic markets changed. Compared with September 15, it decreased by 50,000 tons, and compared with September 18, it decreased by 37,000 tons [5]. 9. Zinc Warrant Report on September 24 - The total zinc warrants on the SHFE were 57,357 tons, an increase of 744 tons. Different regions had different changes in warrants, such as an increase of 500 tons in Guangdong and an increase of 394 tons in Tianjin [6]. 10. LME Zinc Inventory Distribution on September 24 - The total LME zinc inventory was 44,400 tons, a decrease of 1,375 tons from the previous day. The registered warrants were 30,725 tons, and the cancelled warrants were 13,675 tons, with a cancellation ratio of 30.80% [8]. 11. Zinc Concentrate Prices in Major Domestic Cities on September 24 - Zinc concentrate prices in major domestic cities showed a downward trend, with most prices dropping by 20 - 50 yuan per ton [9]. 12. Zinc Ingot Smelter Prices on September 24 - The prices of zinc ingots from different smelters all decreased by 60 yuan per ton [13]. 13. Domestic Refined Zinc Production in June 2025 - The production of refined zinc in June 2025 was 471,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.67% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%. The capacity utilization rate was 87.10%, and the planned production for July was 470,300 tons [15]. 14. Zinc Concentrate Processing Fees on September 23 - Zinc concentrate processing fees varied by region. For example, in some regions with a 50% grade, the average processing fee was 3,800 - 4,100 yuan per metal ton, and the import processing fee for 48% grade was 100 US dollars per dry ton [17]. 15. Ranking of Zinc Trading and Positions of SHFE Members on September 24 - For the zn2511 contract, in terms of trading volume, the top three were CITIC Futures, Guotai Junan, and Dongzheng Futures. In terms of long positions, the top three were CITIC Futures, Dongzheng Futures, and COFCO Futures. In terms of short positions, the top three were CITIC Futures, Guotai Junan, and Dongzheng Futures [18]. 16. Short - term View - The previous trading day, Shanghai zinc futures showed an oscillating downward trend. The trading volume shrank, and both long and short positions increased, with short positions increasing more. Technically, the price closed below the moving average system, and short - term indicators showed a weak trend. It is recommended that the Shanghai zinc ZN2511 contract will oscillate weakly [20].