锌锭大幅累库， 产业现状偏弱 锌周报 2026/02/28 张世骄（有色金属组） 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03120988 交易咨询号：Z0023261 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估 04 需求分析 02 宏观分析 05 供需库存 03 供给分析 06 价格展望 01 周度评估 周度评估 ◆ 价格回顾：上周五沪锌指数收涨0.54%至24726元/吨，单边交易总持仓18.6万手。截至上周五下午15：00，伦锌3S较前日同期跌 2.5至3380美元/吨，总持仓23.01万手。SMM0#锌锭均价24450元/吨，上海基差-50元/吨，天津基差-70元/吨，广东基差-125元/ 吨，沪粤价差75元/吨。 ◆ 国内结构：上期所锌锭期货库存录得6.97万吨，据钢联数据，2月26日全国主要市场锌锭社会库存为18.04万吨，较2月24日增加 0.61万吨。内盘上海地区基差-50元/吨，连续合约-连一合约价差-180元/吨。海外结构：LME锌锭库存录得9.84万吨，LME锌锭注 销仓单录得0.75万吨。外盘cash-3S合约基差-16.97美元/吨，3-15价差40 ...

长城周期优选混合发起式A（021636）成立日期2024年7月2日，最新规模1614.07万。今年以来收益 31.1%，同类排名45/8891；近一年收益118.01%，同类排名61/8137；成立以来收益87.99%。 资料显示，国城矿业股份有限公司位于北京市丰台区南四环西路188号16区19号楼16层，成立日期1978 年11月10日，上市日期1997年1月20日，公司主营业务涉及铅锌矿采选及相关业务。主营业务收入构成 为：钛白粉53.55%，锌精矿21.05%，次铁精矿8.37%，铅精矿4.38%，铜精矿3.87%，银精矿2.92%，硫 酸2.91%，硫精矿1.81%，其他1.04%，硫铁粉0.09%。 2月27日，国城矿业涨5.08%，截至发稿，报37.46元/股，成交6.42亿元，换手率1.49%，总市值443.93亿 元。 从基金十大重仓股角度 数据显示，长城基金旗下1只基金重仓国城矿业。长城周期优选混合发起式A（021636）四季度持有股 数5.15万股，占基金净值比例为3.7%，位居第八大重仓股。根据测算，今日浮盈赚取约9.32万元。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 本文基于第三方数据库自动发 ...

2月26日，国城矿业涨5.75%，截至发稿，报37.88元/股，成交7135.03万元，换手率0.16%，总市值 448.90亿元。国城矿业股价已经连续8天上涨，区间累计涨幅37.29%。 数据显示，易方达基金旗下1只基金重仓国城矿业。易方达科汇灵活配置混合（110012）四季度持有股 数85.02万股，占基金净值比例为3.52%，位居第八大重仓股。根据测算，今日浮盈赚取约175.15万元。 连续8天上涨期间浮盈赚取827.28万元。 易方达科汇灵活配置混合（110012）成立日期2008年10月9日，最新规模6.71亿。今年以来收益 22.08%，同类排名231/8887；近一年收益73.25%，同类排名428/8134；成立以来收益730.4%。 易方达科汇灵活配置混合（110012）基金经理为胡天乐。 截至发稿，胡天乐累计任职时间163天，现任基金资产总规模6.71亿元，任职期间最佳基金回报 32.88%， 任职期间最差基金回报32.88%。 资料显示，国城矿业股份有限公司位于北京市丰台区南四环西路188号16区19号楼16层，成立日期1978 年11月10日，上市日期1997年1月20日，公司主营业务 ...

估值溢价过高，远超行业水平 财务状况 公司自身债务压力加剧 公司估值 标的公司福圣矿业截至2026年1月31日的股东权益账面价值仅990.90万元，而收购对价达2.1亿元，评估 溢价率高达2023.27%。相比同业，福圣矿业的吨金资源量收购价格为1.31亿元，达到山东黄金 （600547）同期收购价格的7倍，紫金矿业（601899）等巨头的收购案例也显示其溢价率显著偏离行业 常态。 公司项目推进 标的资产资源可靠性存疑 老圣沟金矿的资源量中推断级(333)和预测级(334)占比偏高，而探明级资源量缺失，其资源品位和连续 性存在较高不确定性。该矿自2014年6月起停产超11年，设备老化严重，需大规模重建，但具体投产周 期、投资规模尚未明确测算，业绩兑现周期可能较长。 经济观察网金徽股份（603132）(603132.SH)于2026年2月9日公告拟以2.1亿元现金收购徽县福圣矿业开 发有限公司100%股权，从而切入金矿开采领域。此次收购引发市场质疑，主要基于以下几点风险因 素： 行业与风险分析 主业增长乏力下的跨界风险 公司2025年第三季度归母净利润同比下滑30.26%，核心产品锌精矿价格下行对盈利形成压力。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The sharp decline in zinc prices this week was due to the cross - variety liquidity shock caused by the weakening of precious metals and the fundamental risks previously highlighted. The demand support in the zinc market in the first quarter is not strong, and there is an overvaluation risk when zinc prices are above 25,000 yuan/ton [3]. - From the perspective of fundamentals and market sentiment, zinc prices may continue to decline weakly before the Spring Festival, but the current price drop may help build momentum for the peak season market after the festival [3]. - In terms of fundamentals, short - term zinc supply continues to be marginally loose. The arrival volume of domestic zinc ore in January was high, and port inventories reached a three - month high. Some domestic smelters have sufficient raw material inventories, and the planned zinc ingot production in February is expected to decrease by 52,000 - 57,000 tons month - on - month [3]. - On the downstream side, the decline in prices has marginally improved the willingness to purchase, but the procurement intensity of leading enterprises has not met market expectations. Downstream enterprises have entered the seasonal shutdown cycle for the Spring Festival, and the weighted operating rate has returned to the historical seasonal level. It is predicted that the peak inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival will be about 210,000 tons, and the inventory will start to decline rapidly in late March [3]. - In terms of price, the current profit margin of smelters provides cost support at around 23,000 yuan/ton [3]. - In terms of the internal - external price ratio, it is expected that the structure of weak domestic and strong external markets will continue in the first quarter. The uncertainty of European natural gas prices has postponed the expectation of overseas smelter复产, and some mines have lowered their production plans in Q4 2025, which provides continuous support for the external market. There is also a possibility that the zinc ingot export window may open again [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Views - The decline in zinc prices was due to precious metal weakness and fundamental risks. Before the Spring Festival, zinc prices may continue to decline, but it may benefit the post - festival market. The short - term supply is loose, and downstream demand is affected by the Spring Festival shutdown. The expected peak inventory during the Spring Festival is about 210,000 tons, and the inventory will start to decline in late March. The cost support is around 23,000 yuan/ton, and the internal - external price ratio may maintain a weak domestic and strong external structure [3]. 3.2 Historical Spring Festival Data - The relationship between inventory reduction time and zinc price trends is not significant, and it mainly depends on long - term supply - demand logic. Zinc prices mostly decline during the Spring Festival. Historically, the first quarter is often at a relatively high price level, and the sharp decline in pre - festival zinc prices this year may improve downstream purchasing willingness and increase the probability of rapid post - festival inventory reduction [4]. 3.3 Monthly Balance Sheet - It is estimated that the zinc ingot production in January 2026 will be about 532,000 tons, and there will be a small - scale maintenance in February, with a planned month - on - month decrease of 52,000 tons. In terms of imports and exports, the zinc ingot export volume increased significantly in November and December 2025. In 2026, a low import volume is expected. It is predicted that the peak inventory of domestic zinc ingot social inventory during the Spring Festival will reach 210,000 tons, and the inventory will start to decline rapidly from March to April [5]. 3.4 Main Industry News - Antamina's 2026 production guidance was further reduced by 70,000 metal tons. MMG's zinc ore production in Q4 2025 increased by 2% year - on - year. Glencore's 2025 zinc production increased by 7% year - on - year, and its 2026 production guidance is 700,000 - 740,000 tons. Xinjiang Huoshaoyun Lead - Zinc Mine announced a public tender for the sale of 50,000 tons of lead - zinc ore [7]. 3.5 Zinc Concentrate Production and Processing Fees - In December 2025, domestic zinc concentrate production was 287,800 metal tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.58% and a year - on - year increase of 5.85%. The cumulative production from January to December was 3.657 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 1.21%. The production in January 2026 is expected to be 292,600 tons. The domestic zinc concentrate TC has stopped falling and stabilized since late December, with an average of 1,500 yuan/metal ton this week. The import zinc concentrate processing fee index is 25.5 US dollars/dry ton, a week - on - week decrease of 4.25 US dollars/dry ton, and the import profit of zinc ore has dropped to a small loss [10]. 3.6 Zinc Concentrate Import - In December 2025, the import volume of zinc ore and concentrates was 462,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.87% and a year - on - year increase of 1.15%. The cumulative import volume from January to December was 5.3305 million physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 30.1%. The main import sources are Peru, Australia, and South Africa. Due to the arrival cycle, the import volume in December decreased, but it is expected to increase significantly in January. As of February 4, 2026, the import profit and loss of zinc concentrate was - 64 yuan/ton, and the zinc ore import window has been closed since January 26 [14]. 3.7 Zinc Concentrate Port Inventory - As of January 29, the weekly inventory of seven major ports was 377,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 81,000 tons, reaching a three - month high. The arrival volume of zinc concentrate decreased significantly in December, but it increased again in early January after the import window opened in late December [18]. 3.8 Zinc Smelter Production - In January 2026, SMM's refined zinc production in China increased by 8,500 tons month - on - month to 560,600 tons, slightly lower than the initial expectation. The raw material inventory days of domestic smelters in January increased by 1.4 days to 23.7 days. Although the processing fee has only stopped falling and remains at a low level since December, the significant increase in zinc prices in January has repaired the smelter's profit. It is expected that the domestic zinc ingot production in February will decrease by 52,000 - 57,000 tons month - on - month, and the production level is basically the same as that in January after excluding the difference in the number of days in the month. The actual demand will be the key to maintaining the smelter's profit, which needs to be verified during the post - Spring Festival peak season [24]. 3.9 Refined Zinc Import - In December 2025, China imported 8,700 tons of refined zinc and exported 27,200 tons, with a net export of 18,500 tons. The main import countries are Kazakhstan and Iran, and the main export destinations are Taiwan, China, Singapore, and Hong Kong. The domestic zinc ingot spot export window has been closed since mid - December, and the import loss has expanded as of February 5. It is expected that the pattern of tight external and loose internal markets will continue in the first half of 2026, and there is a possibility that the zinc ingot export window may open again [27]. 3.10 Downstream Zinc Processing - The weighted operating rate of domestic zinc downstream primary processing enterprises this week was 39.52%, a week - on - week decrease of 7.16 percentage points, returning to the historical seasonal level. The average holiday days of downstream enterprises are 22 days, an increase of 1 day year - on - year. All enterprises will resume work from late February to early March [29]. - The operating rate of galvanizing enterprises on February 5 was 38.6%, a week - on - week decrease of 7.59 percentage points. The raw material inventory increased slightly, and the finished product inventory decreased. The average holiday days of 34 galvanizing sample enterprises are 20 days, an increase of 1 day year - on - year, and they will resume production from late February to early March [31]. - The operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises on February 5 was 42.42%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.95 percentage points. The raw material inventory decreased, and the finished product inventory increased. The average holiday days of 20 die - casting zinc alloy sample enterprises are 23.1 days, an increase of 1.1 days year - on - year, and they will resume work around the eighth day of the first lunar month or the Lantern Festival [39]. - The operating rate of zinc oxide enterprises on February 5 was 50.37%, a week - on - week decrease of 8.15 percentage points. The raw material inventory decreased to the historical low level, and the finished product inventory increased to the historical high level. The industry shows obvious differentiation in holiday arrangements, and the downstream orders also show structural differences [45]. 3.11 Domestic Inventory - As of January 30, the total inventory of refined zinc in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 65,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7,997 tons. As of February 5, the SMM seven - region zinc ingot social inventory was 133,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 16,700 tons. It is expected that the domestic market will enter the seasonal inventory accumulation period during the Spring Festival, with a peak inventory of about 210,000 tons, and the inventory will start to decline in late March [52]. 3.12 LME Inventory - LME inventory has been increasing in Singapore, Hong Kong, and Kaohsiung warehouses since late October. It reached a recent peak of 112,300 tons on January 19 and then continued to decline slightly. As of February 5, the LME inventory was 107,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,950 tons. The LME cancellation warrant ratio rose to a three - month high, with 13,275 tons of cancelled warrants. The global visible inventory this week was 234,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9,200 tons, showing a seasonal inventory accumulation trend [55]. 3.13 Structure & Arbitrage - Since late January, the domestic spot price has been at a slight discount to the Shanghai zinc main contract. On Thursday this week, the average price in Shanghai was at a discount of 30 yuan/ton to the main 2603 contract, a narrowing of 25 yuan/ton compared with last week. The Contango structure of Shanghai zinc has significantly converged. It is recommended to pay attention to the 4 - 7 inter - period positive arbitrage opportunity [59]. - The outer market has returned to the Contango structure since mid - December. As of February 5, the LME zinc 0 - 3 spread was at a discount of 20.75 US dollars/ton, and the discount range is narrowing. In the case of continuous inventory reduction overseas, the LME market shows an abnormal convex structure, and a positive arbitrage strategy can be considered [62]. - The CashReport and WarrantBandingReport show that the market concentration has increased slightly recently, and there is one position with a 30 - 39% warrant holding [63].

Group 1: Company Overview - China Nonferrous Metal Construction Co., Ltd. is one of the earliest enterprises to "go global," established in 1983, and a leader in the internationalization of China's nonferrous metal industry [2] - The company focuses on international engineering contracting and nonferrous metal resource development, forming a full industry chain from exploration to operation [2] - The company operates in over 40 countries and regions, with significant projects in the Middle East, Africa, and Kazakhstan [2] Group 2: Engineering Contracting Business - The company has rich project development and management experience, with a global contractor ranking of 104 by ENR [2] - In 2025, the company signed new contracts worth 84.71 billion yuan, with an uncompleted contract amount of 338.43 billion yuan as of December 31, 2025, ensuring steady growth for the next 3-5 years [2] - The company is actively advancing the acquisition of the Raura project in Peru, which has a processing capacity of 1 million tons per year [3] Group 3: Resource Expansion and Production - The Raura project has a resource reserve of 161.37 thousand tons of zinc, 34.78 thousand tons of lead, and 1,872 tons of silver [3] - The company plans to expand the production scale of the Baiyin No. 1 lead-zinc mine from 99 thousand tons/year to 165 thousand tons/year by 2025 [3] - An investment of 1.74 billion yuan is planned for the expansion project, which includes new facilities and automation upgrades [3] Group 4: Market Value Management - The company emphasizes market value management and shareholder returns, with a cash dividend of 91.67 million yuan in 2024 [3] - The controlling shareholder increased their stake by approximately 2% in the secondary market [3] - The company received an A rating in the information disclosure evaluation for 2024-2025 from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [3] Group 5: Future Development Outlook - The company aims to focus on "steady growth" and "high-quality development" in its 14th Five-Year Plan [3] - It will prioritize the smooth transition of the Raura project and enhance its competitive strength and profitability [3] - The goal is to become a high-level international benchmark enterprise with modern governance, efficient operations, and a strong brand in the nonferrous metal industry [3]

证券代码：000758 证券简称：中色股份 中国有色金属建设股份有限公司 4. 秘鲁 Raura 项目情况如何？ 秘鲁 Raura 项目为在产锌多金属矿山，采选规模 100 万吨/ 年，主要产品为锌精矿、铅精矿、铜精矿，银金属主要富集在铅 精矿和铜精矿中。项目保有资源量为：锌金属 161.37 万吨，铅 金属 34.78 万吨，银金属 1,872 吨，铜金属 11.92 万吨，目前资 源储量及采矿作业仅针对其中一宗在产矿权，其余矿权地质工作 将在完成收购后有序开展。2024 年，Raura 项目处理矿石量 102.48 万吨，锌入选品位 5.51%，铅入选品位 1.19%，银入选品位 1.84 盎司每吨，铜入选品位 0.25%。2026 年，公司将积极推进项目交 割，确保生产经营平稳过渡、有序衔接。 5. 中色白矿扩产的情况如何？ 2025 年，中色白矿成功取得 165 万吨/年采矿证，经公司董 事会审议，中色白矿拟投资 17.4 亿元建设 165 万吨/年铅锌矿采 选扩建项目，新建主井、辅助斜坡道、5000t/d 选厂、尾矿库及 尾矿输送泵站及相应辅助设施等，同时进行自动化水平及生产装 备改造升级，项目建设 ...

2 月 5 日参议院金融稳定监督委员会听证会上，民主党参议员就消费者物价上涨及特朗普试图影响美联 储一事追问贝森特。经济学家警告，突然大幅降息虽能短期刺激市场，但可能致美元贬值、长期物价上 涨。周五亚市时段，美元指数在 97.90 附近窄幅震荡。此外，全球股市走弱、油价反弹，美伊谈判不确 定性大，地缘风险溢价提振金银避险需求，外盘金银反弹，市场厌恶情绪缓解，锌价跌势放缓。 产业方面，加拿大艾芬豪矿业正与刚果国有矿业公司及瑞士大宗商品贸易商深入商谈，拟将 Kipushi 矿 高品位锌精矿纳入美国"Project Vault"战略储备计划并运往美国。美伊周五会谈局势存变数，海外锌矿 供应扰动风险支撑锌价。国内锌精矿现货加工费低位，镀锌板企业多春节放假停产，样本平均放假 9.8 天，山东部分厂因订单亏损提前放假，预计社会库存持续增加，现货成交低迷，以长单交投为主，下游 备货结束询价积极性弱，今日成交以刚需为主，实际交投疲软。此外，节前资金减持需求，短期锌价承 压。 整体看，近期沪锌走势受宏观情绪及有色板块联动影响，且终端消费趋弱，预计锌价将继续区间震荡走 弱。 （长江有色金属网cjys.cn研发团队 0592-56 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - It is expected that Shanghai zinc will undergo wide - range adjustments, and attention should be paid to the range of 24,000 - 25,000 yuan/ton. The upstream zinc mine imports are at a high level, but domestic zinc mines are in production reduction at the end of the year. Domestic smelters' competition for domestic ore procurement has intensified, processing fees at home and abroad have dropped significantly, and the profits of domestic smelters have shrunk, with production expected to continue to be restricted. The export window may close again. The downstream market is turning to the off - season, and overall demand is weak, with only some policy - supported areas like the automobile sector showing bright spots. The spot premium is at a low level, and domestic social inventory has slightly increased, while LME zinc inventory is stable. Technically, the position has decreased and the price has adjusted, with both long and short positions trading cautiously [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Futures Market - Shanghai zinc main contract closing price: 24,395 yuan/ton, down 490 yuan; 03 - 04 month contract spread: - 55 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan - LME three - month zinc quote: 3,305.5 US dollars/ton, down 17.5 US dollars - Shanghai zinc total open interest: 194,134 lots, down 6,190 lots - Shanghai zinc top 20 net open interest: 2,011 lots, down 4 lots - Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts: 0 tons, unchanged - SHFE inventory: 65,154 tons, down 7,997 tons; LME inventory: 108,200 tons, down 775 tons [3] 3.2. Spot Market - Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network 0 zinc spot price: 24,580 yuan/ton, down 320 yuan - Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market 1 zinc spot price: 24,160 yuan/ton, down 510 yuan - ZN main contract basis: 185 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan - LME zinc cash - 3 months spread: - 22.23 US dollars/ton, up 3.66 US dollars - Kunming 50% zinc concentrate ex - works price: 21,710 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan - Shanghai 85% - 86% crushed zinc price: 16,750 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan [3] 3.3. Upstream Situation - WBMS zinc supply - demand balance: - 35,700 tons, down 14,700 tons - ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance: - 7,700 tons, down 4,900 tons - ILZSG global zinc mine production: 1.0627 million tons, down 11,900 tons - Domestic refined zinc production: 675,000 tons, up 21,000 tons - Zinc ore imports: 462,600 tons, down 53,900 tons [3] 3.4. Industry Situation - Refined zinc imports: 8,760.85 tons, down 9,469.07 tons - Refined zinc exports: 27,266.66 tons, down 15,548.89 tons - Zinc social inventory: 111,300 tons, up 4,100 tons [3] 3.5. Downstream Situation - Galvanized sheet production: 2.36 million tons, up 20,000 tons; sales: 2.36 million tons - New housing construction area: 58.76996 million square meters; housing completion area: 60.34813 million square meters, down 20.8942 million square meters - Automobile production: 3.4115 million vehicles, down 107,500 vehicles - Air - conditioner production: 21.6289 million units, up 6.6029 million units [3] 3.6. Options Market - Zinc at - the - money call option implied volatility: 31.1%, down 5.39% - Zinc at - the - money put option implied volatility: 31.1%, down 5.39% - Zinc at - the - money option 20 - day historical volatility: 0.08%; 60 - day historical volatility: 18.91%, up 0.02% [3] 3.7. Industry News - The People's Bank of China focuses on supporting key areas such as expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and medium - sized enterprises. - The US ADP employment data in January was significantly lower than expected, with only 22,000 new jobs added, indicating weakening momentum in the labor market at the beginning of the year. The growth was entirely driven by the education and healthcare service sectors, while many key industries such as professional business services and manufacturing experienced employment contractions. - The US ISM services PMI index in January was 53.8, remaining at the highest level since October 2024, better than expected. Business activity rebounded, but new order growth slowed down, employment hardly expanded, and the price index reached a three - month high. [3]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Tibet Summit Resources Co., Ltd. experienced a decline of 5.06% in its stock price, reaching 17.27 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 452 million CNY and a turnover rate of 2.80%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 15.788 billion CNY [1] - Tibet Summit Resources, established on November 30, 1998, and listed on December 27, 2000, primarily engages in the mining and sales of lead, zinc, and copper concentrates, with 99.99% of its revenue coming from mining activities and 0.01% from other sources [1] - The company has begun developing lithium salt lake resources and producing lithium salt products through its subsidiaries [1] Group 2 - From the perspective of the top ten circulating shareholders, a fund under Southern Fund holds a position in Tibet Summit, having reduced its holdings by 78,800 shares to 8.3569 million shares, representing 0.91% of the circulating shares, resulting in an estimated floating loss of approximately 7.6883 million CNY [2] - The Southern CSI 1000 ETF (512100), established on September 29, 2016, has a current scale of 78.996 billion CNY, with a year-to-date return of 8.01% and a one-year return of 42.19% [2] - The fund manager, Cui Lei, has been in the position for 7 years and 92 days, overseeing assets totaling 137.02 billion CNY, with the best fund return during her tenure being 279.97% and the worst being -15.93% [2]