Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 349.08 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.96%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 51.78 billion yuan, up 61.55% year-on-year [3][17] - The company is focusing on both organic growth and acquisitions to enhance its gold mining assets, with significant projects underway to increase production capacity in strategic metals like lithium and molybdenum [6][8] Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, the company reported a revenue of 94.88 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.54%, and a net profit of 13.91 billion yuan, up 80.86% year-on-year [3][17] - The company’s gold revenue reached 64.68 billion yuan in 2025, a substantial increase of 83.25% year-on-year, while copper revenue was 57.83 billion yuan, up 20.06% year-on-year [5][23] - The average selling price for gold was 778 yuan per gram, an increase of 49.4% year-on-year, while copper averaged 65,000 yuan per ton, up 11.8% year-on-year [5][46] Production and Capacity Expansion - The company plans to produce 2.55 million tons of lithium carbonate in 2025, with a target capacity of 270,000 to 320,000 tons by 2028, positioning itself as a major global lithium producer [8][58] - The company’s molybdenum production is expected to reach 11,500 tons in 2025, with plans to increase this to 25,000 to 35,000 tons by 2028 [8][58] Strategic Acquisitions - The company has acquired 100% of Canadian United Gold for approximately 28 billion yuan, which is expected to significantly boost its gold production from 11.1 tons in 2024 to 25 tons by 2029 [7][51] - The company has also become the largest shareholder of Chifeng Gold, enhancing its resource base and potential for future growth [7][55] Earnings Forecast - The forecasted net profits for the company from 2026 to 2028 are 72.28 billion yuan, 88.17 billion yuan, and 107.70 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 12.04, 9.87, and 8.08 [9][61]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 349.08 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 14.96%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 51.78 billion yuan, up 61.55% year-on-year [3][17] - The company is experiencing growth in gold, copper, and silver production and prices, with significant increases in revenue from these metals [4][5] - The company is expanding its gold mining assets through both organic growth and acquisitions, including the acquisition of 100% of United Gold and becoming the largest shareholder of Chifeng Gold [7][55] Financial Performance - In 2025, the company achieved gold revenue of 64.68 billion yuan, an increase of 83.25% year-on-year, and copper revenue of 57.83 billion yuan, up 20.06% year-on-year [5][23] - The average selling price for gold was 778 yuan per gram, a 49.4% increase year-on-year, while copper's average selling price was 65,000 yuan per ton, up 11.8% year-on-year [46] - The company expects net profits for 2026-2028 to be 72.28 billion, 88.17 billion, and 107.70 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 12.04, 9.87, and 8.08 [9][62] Production and Strategic Resources - The company plans to produce 25,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent by 2025, with a target capacity of 270,000 to 320,000 tons by 2028, positioning itself as a major lithium producer [8][58] - The company has completed the acquisition of the Shapinggou molybdenum mine, with plans to increase molybdenum production to 25,000-35,000 tons by 2028 [8][58] - The company is actively pursuing strategic resources, including lithium and molybdenum, to enhance production capabilities and market position [8][58] Valuation and Estimates - The company is expected to maintain a strong growth trajectory, with projected revenue growth rates of 15.0% in 2025, 25.4% in 2026, and 11.9% in 2027 and 2028 [12] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 27.7% in 2025 to 32.7% by 2028, reflecting operational efficiencies and higher commodity prices [12] - The company's return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 27.9% in 2025, increasing to 29.2% by 2028, indicating strong profitability [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the second quarter, zinc prices are expected to fluctuate. At the beginning of the quarter, prices will be relatively weak due to macro - negative factors and high inventory levels. Towards the end of the quarter, prices are expected to strengthen with the reduction of imported ore volume and cost support from energy disturbances [1]. - The core narrative of the overseas macro - market in the first quarter of 2026 has shifted to a stagflation trading theme, which will directly affect the price of zinc and other industrial products [8]. - The supply side is facing challenges such as reduced overseas zinc ore increments and potential disruptions in transportation, while the demand side shows a delayed recovery, with different downstream industries having different impacts on zinc consumption [1][28][59]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Chapter 1: Viewpoint Summary - Price trend: Zinc prices will fluctuate in the second quarter. At the beginning, they will be weak due to macro - negative factors and high inventory, and strengthen at the end with reduced imports and cost support [1]. - Macro: At the beginning of the quarter, the war - induced systemic risk is the main trading theme. If the war ends quickly, energy disturbances may lead to a higher price center, and commodities may strengthen under stagflation trading [1]. - Supply side: TC remained stable in the first quarter. There may be a shortage of imported ore for domestic enterprises, and import TC has room to decline. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted the transportation of some zinc concentrates [1]. - Demand side: Downstream demand is significantly delayed, but terminal consumption shows strong resilience after the Two Sessions. Demand is expected to recover slowly in the second quarter, and attention should be paid to the turning point of social inventory [1]. - Forecast range: The core fluctuation range of the SHFE Shanghai zinc main contract in the second quarter of 2026 is expected to be 22,000 - 25,000 yuan/ton, and that of LME zinc is 3000 - 3450 US dollars/ton [1]. 3.2 Chapter 2: Market Review - In the first quarter, zinc prices in the non - ferrous metals sector were relatively weak but still followed the overall volatility increase. The prices of SHFE zinc and LME zinc showed an inverted V - shaped trend of rising at the beginning, oscillating during the holiday, and falling after the holiday. Macro - sentiment disturbances and continuous shortages of ore supply were the two core factors [4]. 3.3 Chapter 3: Macro - economic Factors - **Crude oil price increase**: Since March 2026, international crude oil prices have skyrocketed. By March 27, the closing price of the Brent crude oil main contract reached 106.29 US dollars/barrel, with a cumulative increase of over 36% from early March. Geopolitical conflicts and long - term production cuts are the main reasons for the price increase [9][12]. - **Stagflation trading**: The sharp increase in oil prices has led to inflation and suppressed economic growth, triggering stagflation trading. The inflation data is expected to rise, and economic growth is under pressure [13][16]. - **Monetary policy**: The Fed's monetary policy has shifted from an expected continuous interest rate cut to a more hawkish stance, with the possibility of restarting interest rate hikes [23]. - **Key variables**: The core contradiction in the overseas macro - environment is the persistence of the crude oil supply shock caused by the Middle East geopolitical conflict. Key variables to watch include the development of geopolitical conflicts, US inflation data from March to April, and the economic growth and employment market [25]. 3.4 Chapter 4: Supply Side - **Zinc concentrate**: In 2025, global zinc mine production was 12.57 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.40%. In 2026, the growth rate of global zinc concentrate production is expected to narrow. Overseas zinc ore production has been affected by many factors, and the expected increment has been continuously revised downwards. Domestic zinc concentrate production is expected to increase by 180,000 tons in 2026 [26][28][33]. - **Smelting end**: In 2025, global zinc ingot production was 13.8225 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.63%. In 2026, domestic smelting is supported by profits, and new production capacity is being put into operation. Overseas smelting is affected by raw materials and energy, and the annual output is expected to increase by 50,000 tons [38][42][52]. 3.5 Chapter 5: Demand Side - **Real estate**: In 2026, the real estate market will still drag down the zinc market, but the drag is limited. The completion data may show a soft - landing feature of a halved decline [61]. - **Infrastructure**: In 2026, infrastructure investment is expected to maintain a medium - to - high - speed growth. The "14th Five - Year Plan" for the power grid will drive zinc consumption, with an expected 2026 investment of 120 billion yuan in UHV projects, which will consume 43,700 - 69,300 tons of zinc [65]. - **Automobile**: In 2026, the growth rate of automobile sales is expected to slow down, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles will exceed 50%. The lightweight trend of new energy vehicles will drag down the growth rate of zinc consumption by about - 0.31% [68]. - **Household appliances**: In 2026, the household appliance industry will maintain a moderate positive growth, but the marginal contribution to zinc consumption is limited [73]. - **Emerging fields**: The growth rate of the photovoltaic industry will decline in 2026, which will drag down zinc consumption. The wind power industry is expected to become a core growth point, with an expected global wind power zinc consumption of about 430,000 tons in 2026, a year - on - year increase of 10.8% [83][87]. - **Downstream demand**: Downstream demand recovery was slow in the first quarter, but it is expected to return in the second quarter [89]. 3.6 Chapter 6: Import - Export and Inventory - **Import - export**: In 2025, China's zinc concentrate imports increased by 30.1% year - on - year. The import structure is affected by geopolitical factors, and the import TC may decline again. The internal - external price ratio may further invert in the second quarter [96][101]. - **Inventory**: In the first quarter, domestic and overseas inventories were polarized. Domestic inventories increased rapidly, while LME inventories remained at a low level. In the future, LME inventories are likely to remain low, and domestic inventories may remain at a high level [103]. 3.7 Chapter 7: Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - **Global zinc concentrate balance**: In 2026, the global zinc concentrate supply is expected to be 12.88 million tons, and the consumption is 12.78 million tons, with a surplus of 100,000 tons [108]. - **Global refined zinc balance**: In 2026, the global refined zinc supply is expected to be 14.03 million tons, and the consumption is 13.9 million tons, with a surplus of 130,000 tons [109]. - **China's zinc concentrate balance**: In 2026, China's zinc concentrate supply is expected to be 7.185 million tons, and the consumption is 7.02 million tons, with a surplus of 325,000 tons [110]. - **China's refined zinc balance**: In 2026, China's refined zinc supply is expected to be 7.2 million tons, and the consumption is 7.12 million tons, with a surplus of 80,000 tons [110].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.724 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.00%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 542 million yuan, up 13.69% year-on-year [4] - In Q4 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 544 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 24.49% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 40.21%. The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q4 was 196 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 54.33% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 110.75% [4] - Zinc and lead concentrate production for 2025 was 71,800 tons and 22,500 tons, respectively, marking increases of 16.61% and 8.90% year-on-year [4] Financial Performance - The company expects to achieve revenues of 2.034 billion yuan, 2.462 billion yuan, and 2.766 billion yuan for 2026, 2027, and 2028, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 18.00%, 21.03%, and 12.34% [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 689 million yuan, 834 million yuan, and 1 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 27.12%, 20.97%, and 19.91% [6] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.70 yuan, 0.85 yuan, and 1.02 yuan for 2026, 2027, and 2028, respectively [6] Production and Expansion - The company is actively promoting resource expansion and production increase, with the new 1.5 million tons/year flotation plant at Xiejiaogou having completed trial operations [6] - The acquisition of the remaining 51% stake in Gansu Haosen Mining Co., Ltd. has been completed, and the integration of the Jianglu mining area is fully accomplished [6] - High-grade ore bodies have been discovered in the Dongpo lead-zinc mine, with lead grades ranging from 0.80% to 38.86% and silver grades from 2 g/t to 309 g/t [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [4][6][23] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 3.161 billion RMB in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 68.5%. The gross profit reached 2.348 billion RMB, up 135.5%, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.355 billion RMB, also up 135.5% [1][9] - The Solomon Gold Mine expansion project, aiming for an additional 10 million tons per year, is expected to be operational by 2027, significantly enhancing future gold production [3][18] - The company has optimized its cost structure, with the unit sales cost for gold at the Solomon Gold Mine decreasing by 23.9% year-on-year, highlighting a strong cost advantage [2][13] Financial Performance - For 2026-2028, the company forecasts revenues of 6.218 billion RMB, 9.770 billion RMB, and 17.545 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of 96.7%, 57.1%, and 79.6% respectively [4][23] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 3.027 billion RMB, 4.422 billion RMB, and 7.965 billion RMB for the same period, with growth rates of 123.4%, 46.1%, and 80.1% respectively [4][23] - The diluted EPS is expected to be 0.68 RMB, 1.00 RMB, and 1.80 RMB for 2026, 2027, and 2028, respectively, with the current stock price corresponding to P/E ratios of 15, 10, and 6 times [4][23] Production and Cost Metrics - In 2025, the total ore processed at the Jiangxi Yifeng Xinzhang Mine was approximately 1.1042 million tons, with copper equivalent sales remaining stable at around 10,304 tons [2][11] - The Solomon Gold Mine's mining volume reached 3.3553 million tons, a 23.7% increase year-on-year, with gold ingot sales of 2,273.6 kg, up 44.5% [2][11] - The unit sales cost for copper equivalent at the Jiangxi Yifeng Xinzhang Mine was approximately 30,800 RMB per ton, reflecting a 5.2% increase year-on-year [2][13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of zinc mines is expected to decrease, and attention should be paid to the impact of capital on zinc prices [1] - The domestic refined zinc production is expected to increase significantly in March, and the downstream enterprises are expected to resume work after the Lantern Festival, with the operating rate steadily increasing [5] - The geopolitical situation may affect the import of zinc elements from the Middle East, and the increase in overseas natural gas prices may lead to production cuts by European smelters [5] - The trading strategies include going long on dips and buying out - of - the - money call options in a timely manner [5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies 3.1.1 Trading Logic - **Supply Side** - In March, northern mines are still in seasonal shutdown, but mines that stopped production during the Spring Festival are resuming production, bringing some incremental supply. The continuous inflow of imported mines supplements the supply, but the shortage pattern of zinc concentrate remains, and the processing fee is expected to remain low [5] - In March, domestic smelters that had holidays or maintenance are resuming production and increasing output. Some high - cost smelters are currently slightly in the red, and the impact of smelter profitability on the operating rate needs to be monitored. The domestic refined zinc production in March is expected to increase significantly month - on - month [5] - **Demand Side** - After the Spring Festival, there are significant differences in terminal consumption. Some enterprises have unfinished orders and are actively resuming production, while others have no new orders and have postponed the resumption of work until after the Lantern Festival [5] - **Inventory** - As of March 5, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven major regions monitored by SMM was 256,300 tons, an increase of 36,400 tons compared to February 26 and 1,700 tons compared to March 2 [5] 3.1.2 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral Strategy**: Go long on dips [5] - **Options Strategy**: Buy out - of - the - money call options in a timely manner [5] 3.2 Market Data - **Spot Premium**: Information about the basis in major consumption areas and LME cash - 3M [7] - **Absolute Price and Monthly Spread**: Information about the absolute price and monthly spread of Shanghai zinc, as well as trading volume and open interest [13] - **Inventory**: Information about social inventory, bonded area inventory, LME inventory, LME cancelled warrant ratio, and warrants [16][17] 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Zinc Ore Supply - **Production** - In 2025, the global zinc concentrate production was 12.57 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 652,400 tons or 5.47%. Overseas production was 8.504 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 540,400 tons or 6.79%, and China's production was 4.066 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 112,000 tons or 2.83% [29] - In February, China's zinc concentrate production was 224,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 23.79% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.46%. It is expected to reach 284,900 tons in March, a month - on - month increase of 27.02% [29] - **Import** - In December 2025, the imported zinc concentrate was 462,500 tons (physical tons), a month - on - month decrease of 10.87% (56,400 physical tons) compared to November and a year - on - year increase of 1.15%. The cumulative import volume from January to December was 5.3305 million tons (physical tons), a cumulative year - on - year increase of 30.1% [31] - In December 2025, the top three import source countries were Peru (72,700 physical tons, accounting for 15.7%), Australia (66,300 physical tons, accounting for 14.3%), and South Africa (58,700 physical tons, accounting for 12.7%) [31] - **Raw Material Inventory** - As of February, the raw material inventory of domestic smelters increased by 1.2 days month - on - month to 24.9 days [29][41] - The inventory of zinc concentrate in major domestic ports decreased by 31,000 tons to 349,000 tons [29] - **Processing Fee** - In March, the monthly processing fee for domestic Zn50 zinc concentrate was 1,500 yuan/ton. On March 6, the weekly processing fee for domestic Zn50 zinc concentrate was 1,550 yuan/metal ton, and the SMM imported zinc concentrate index decreased by 8.37 US dollars/dry ton month - on - month to 15.38 US dollars/dry ton [45] 3.3.2 Global Refined Zinc Production - In 2025, the global refined zinc production was 13.8225 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 221,800 tons or 1.63%, and the consumption was 13.808 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 182,300 tons or 1.34%. The cumulative surplus was 14,500 tons [49] - In 2025, China's refined zinc production was 6.9996 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.06% or 399,700 tons, and overseas production was 6.8228 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.54% or 177,900 tons [49] 3.3.3 Domestic Refined Zinc Supply - **Operating Rate** - In February, the operating rate of domestic refined zinc enterprises was 73.79%, a month - on - month decrease of 8.25%. Among them, the operating rate of large - scale enterprises was 80.28%, a month - on - month decrease of 8.41%; that of medium - scale enterprises was 78.24%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.44%; and that of small - scale enterprises was 43.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 20.98% [52] - **Production** - In February, the SMM China refined zinc production decreased by 9.99% month - on - month to 504,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.91%. It is expected to reach 579,900 tons in March, a month - on - month increase of 14.92% and a year - on - year increase of 6.03% [53] - **Import and Export** - In December 2025, the refined zinc import volume was 8,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9,500 tons or 51.94%, and a year - on - year decrease of 73.4%. The cumulative import volume from January to December was 304,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 31.78% [62] - In December 2025, the refined zinc export volume was 27,200 tons, with a net export of 18,500 tons. The top three import countries were Kazakhstan (6,300 tons, 72.26%), Iran (1,400 tons, 15.96%), and Australia (700 tons, 8.17%). The top three export destinations were Chinese Taipei (13,500 tons, 49.37%), Singapore (3,500 tons, 12.87%), and Hong Kong, China (3,000 tons, 10.97%) [62] 3.3.4 Downstream Consumption - **Primary Processing Operating Rate** - Information about the comprehensive operating rate of downstream enterprises, galvanizing, die - casting alloy, and zinc oxide operating rates [64] - **Inventory of Primary Processing Enterprises** - Information about the raw material and finished product inventories of galvanizing, zinc alloy, and zinc oxide enterprises [66] - **End - Use Industries** - **Real Estate**: Information about real estate development investment, sales area, new construction area, construction area, completion area, and unsold area, as well as the land transaction premium rate in 100 cities and the daily sales of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities [71][74] - **Infrastructure**: Information about the investment trends of major infrastructure sectors, including power, transportation, and water conservancy [82] - **Automobile**: Information about the production of traditional fuel vehicles, new - energy vehicles, and the export of Chinese automobiles [91] - **White Goods**: Information about the monthly production of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines [95]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The zinc market is currently in a state where the supply - side contradiction will continue to dominate prices. The zinc ore expansion cycle is at its end, with global zinc ore production growth slowing down. The most relaxed stage of zinc ore supply has passed, and a tight - balance state may become the norm. In the short - term, the fundamentals are under pressure, but downstream demand is gradually recovering. The Middle East tension has increased zinc price volatility, and there may be mid - term internal - external positive arbitrage opportunities [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - **Price**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract last week was 24,260, with a weekly decline of 1.82%, and the closing price of the night session yesterday was 24,330, with a night - session increase of 0.29%. The closing price of LmeS - zinc3 last week was 3,323, with a weekly increase of 0.45% [6]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of SHFE zinc main contract last Friday was 133,335, an increase of 28,787 compared to the previous week, and the open interest was 85,316, a decrease of 9,558 compared to the previous week. The trading volume of LmeS - zinc3 was 11,823, an increase of 1,481 compared to the previous week, and the open interest was 222,533, a decrease of 3,899 compared to the previous week [6]. - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc warrant inventory was 76,450, an increase of 6,785 compared to the previous week; SHFE total zinc inventory was 134,921, an increase of 8,869 compared to the previous week; social inventory was 256,300, an increase of 36,400 compared to the previous week; LME zinc inventory was 94,975, a decrease of 2,375 compared to the previous week; bonded - area inventory was 3,300, unchanged from the previous week [6]. 3.2 Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison - **Inventory**: Zinc ore and smelter finished - product inventories are at a high level, and zinc ingot inventory continues to increase [9]. - **Profit**: Zinc ore mining enterprises' profits are stable and at a historical high, smelting profits are stable but at a historical low, and galvanized pipe enterprises' profits are recovering but at a low level compared to the same period [11][12]. - **Capacity Utilization**: Zinc concentrate capacity utilization has increased and is at a high level compared to the same period in history. Refined zinc capacity utilization has increased and is at a medium level compared to the same period in history. Downstream galvanizing, die - casting zinc, and zinc oxide capacity utilization have increased but are at a medium - low level compared to the same period in history [13][14]. 3.3 Trading Aspects - **Spot**: Spot premiums have declined. Overseas premiums are differentiated, with Singapore and Antwerp premiums remaining flat, and LME CASH - 3M declining [17][19]. - **Spread**: The contango structure of SHFE zinc has widened [22]. - **Inventory**: There has been a significant inventory build - up this week, and the open - interest - to - inventory ratio has decreased. LME inventory is mainly concentrated in Singapore, with total LME inventory continuously decreasing, and the cancelled - warrant ratio has declined to a historical low. Bonded - area inventory remained flat this week, and global visible zinc inventory has significantly increased [26][32][34]. - **Futures**: The domestic open interest is at a medium - high level compared to the same period in history [35]. 3.4 Supply - **Zinc Concentrate**: Zinc concentrate imports have significantly increased, domestic zinc ore production is at a high level compared to the same period, import ore processing fees have decreased this week, and domestic ore processing fees have remained stable. Ore arrivals are at a medium level, and smelter raw - material inventory has rebounded from a low level [38][39]. - **Refined Zinc**: Smelting output has declined and is at a medium level compared to the same period in history. Smelter finished - product inventory has increased and is at a high level compared to the same period in history. Zinc alloy output is at a medium level [40]. - **Imports and Exports**: Refined zinc imports and exports are presented in relevant data, and refined zinc import losses are shown in the data [42]. - **Recycled Zinc Raw Materials**: Data on the capacity utilization of independent electric - arc - furnace steel mills, scrap - steel consumption of steel mills, and the prices of recycled zinc - related raw materials are provided [44][45][46]. 3.5 Zinc Demand - **Consumption**: The growth rate of refined zinc consumption is positive, but the downstream monthly capacity utilization has slightly declined and is mostly at a low level compared to the same period in history [50][54]. - **Downstream Raw - Material and Finished - Product Inventories**: Data on downstream raw - material and finished - product inventories of galvanizing, die - casting zinc, and zinc oxide are provided [56][60][61]. - **Terminal Demand**: The real - estate market remains at a low level, and the power grid shows structural growth [65]. 3.6 Overseas Factors - Data on European natural - gas futures prices, EU carbon - quota contract prices, European electricity prices, and European zinc - smelter profit - and - loss situations are provided [67][68][69][70].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The previous trading day saw Shanghai zinc oscillating and falling, closing with a negative line, with an increase in trading volume. Both long and short positions reduced, with more long - position reductions. Overall, it was a volume - shrinking decline. The price decline led to active exits of long positions, and short positions also exited to wait and see. The short - term market may oscillate and consolidate. Technically, the price closed above the long - term moving average with strong support. The short - term KDJ indicator declined, operating at the strength - weakness demarcation point. The trend indicator rose, with both long and short forces increasing and in a stalemate. The operation suggestion is that Shanghai zinc ZN2604 will oscillate and weaken [19]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Analysis - In November 2025, global zinc plate production was 1.197 million tons, consumption was 1.168 million tons, with a surplus of 29,000 tons. From January to November, global zinc plate production was 12.7561 million tons, consumption was 13.1065 million tons, with a shortage of 350,400 tons. In November, global zinc ore production was 1.069 million tons, and from January to November, it was 12.1419 million tons, which is bullish [2]. - The basis is +70 with the spot price at 24,440, considered neutral [2]. - On March 3, LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,400 tons to 95,375 tons, and SHFE zinc inventory warrants increased by 2,359 tons to 73,097 tons, considered neutral [2]. - The previous trading day, Shanghai zinc oscillated and fell, closing below the 20 - day moving average, with the 20 - day moving average pointing down, which is bearish [2]. - The main positions are net long, and long positions increased, which is bullish [2]. 3.2 Futures Exchange Zinc Futures Quotes on March 3 - The trading volume of zinc futures on March 3 totaled 275,627 lots, with a turnover of 3.39640435 billion yuan, and the total open interest was 191,866 lots, an increase of 2,428 lots [3]. 3.3 Domestic Main Spot Market Quotes on March 2 - The domestic zinc concentrate spot TC was 1,500 yuan/metal ton, an increase of 200 yuan/metal ton; the imported zinc concentrate comprehensive TC was 30 dollars/ton, unchanged [4]. - The price of 0 zinc in Shanghai was 24,360 - 24,460 yuan/ton, with an average price of 24,410 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 24,220 - 24,320 yuan/ton, with an average price of 24,270 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton; in Tianjin, it was 24,350 - 24,450 yuan/ton, with an average price of 24,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan/ton; in Zhejiang, it was 24,400 - 24,500 yuan/ton, with an average price of 24,450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan/ton [4]. 3.4 National Main Market Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics (2025/2/12 - 2026/3/2) - As of March 2, 2026, the total social inventory of zinc ingots in China's main markets was 211,900 tons, an increase of 37,700 tons compared to February 24 and 31,600 tons compared to February 26 [5]. 3.5 Futures Exchange Zinc Warrant Report on March 3 - The total zinc warrants on March 3 were 73,097 tons, an increase of 2,359 tons [6]. 3.6 LME Zinc Inventory Distribution and Statistics on March 3 - The total LME zinc inventory on March 3 was 95,315 tons, a decrease of 1,400 tons. The registered warrants were 88,575 tons, and the cancelled warrants were 6,800 tons, with a cancellation ratio of 7.13% [7]. 3.7 National Main City Zinc Concentrate Price Summary on March 3 - The price of 50% - grade zinc concentrate in various regions increased by 20 yuan/ton [9]. 3.8 National Market Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes on March 3 - The price of 0 zinc ingots from various smelters increased by 30 yuan/ton [12]. 3.9 Domestic Refined Zinc Production in January 2026 - The planned production in January was 485,500 tons, the actual production was 479,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.25%, a year - on - year increase of 7.78%, a 1.29% shortfall compared to the planned value, with a capacity utilization rate of 67.02%. The planned production in February was 468,700 tons [15]. 3.10 Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking on March 3 - The total trading volume of members was 294,247 lots, an increase of 6,022 lots; the total long positions were 65,559 lots, a decrease of 1,163 lots; the total short positions were 67,718 lots, a decrease of 912 lots [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Zinc: Oscillation; Lead: Oscillation [6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 4Q25, the overall output of overseas lead - zinc mines decreased quarter - on - quarter. The zinc concentrate output of overseas sample mining enterprises was 1.288 million metal tons, a year - on - year increase of 44,000 metal tons (YoY + 3.6%); the lead concentrate output was 277,000 metal tons, a year - on - year decrease of 24,000 metal tons (YoY - 8%). The zinc ingot output of overseas smelters increased both year - on - year and quarter - on - quarter, but there was no public active resumption of production [2]. - The zinc concentrate output guidance of sample enterprises in 2026 decreased significantly. The average value decreased by about 11% year - on - year. However, the actual output may be more optimistic than the paper statistics because the incremental output of non - standard mines is not included in the statistics [3]. - For zinc concentrate TC, in the short term, TC may rise slightly, but the rebound space in the first half of the year is limited. For lead concentrate TC, the spot TC quotation is expected to continue to be under pressure [3]. - For zinc investment, in the short term, it is recommended to wait and see, and in the medium term, consider buying on dips. For lead investment, it is recommended to buy on dips, and wait and see for arbitrage [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Event Overview - Recently, overseas leading mining enterprises have basically announced their 4Q25 production operation status and 2026 output guidance. The report statistically sorted out the lead - zinc concentrate output and output guidance of 31 overseas leading mining enterprises to predict future changes in the overseas mining end [11]. 3.2 4Q25 Overseas Lead - Zinc Mine Overall Output Declined Quarter - on - Quarter - Zinc concentrate: The output of overseas sample zinc concentrate in 4Q25 was 1.288 million metal tons, a year - on - year increase of 44,000 metal tons (YoY + 3.6%) and a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 15,000 metal tons (QoQ - 1.2%). The global zinc concentrate output was 3.217 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2,000 tons (YoY + 0%) and a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 15,000 tons (QoQ - 0.5%). Peru's zinc concentrate output was 384,000 metal tons, a year - on - year increase of 65,000 metal tons (YoY + 20.4%) and a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 15,000 metal tons (QoQ - 3.8%) [12][14]. - Lead concentrate: The output of overseas sample lead concentrate in 4Q25 was 277,000 metal tons, a year - on - year decrease of 24,000 metal tons (YoY - 8%) and a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 6,000 metal tons (QoQ - 2%). The global lead concentrate output was 1.212 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 28,000 tons (YoY + 2.4%) and a quarter - on - quarter increase of 51,000 tons (QoQ + 4.4%). Peru's lead concentrate output was 78,000 metal tons, a year - on - year increase of 4,000 metal tons (YoY + 5.6%) and a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 2,000 metal tons (QoQ - 2.9%) [12][15]. - Comparison of different statistical calibers: For zinc, the increase in global zinc concentrate output in 4Q25 mainly came from China and large - scale projects in overseas statistical samples. For lead, the increase in global lead concentrate output mainly came from small - scale projects outside the samples [23]. 3.3 4Q25 Sub - mining Enterprises Output Changes and Factor Sorting - Zinc concentrate: The top five companies providing year - on - year output increments were Ivanhoe, Vedanta, Nexa, Sibanye - Stillwater, and Boliden. The top five companies with year - on - year output decreases were Peñoles, Teck, Newmont, Lundin Mining, and Volcan [25]. - Lead concentrate: The main sources of year - on - year increments were Aurelia Metals, Buenaventura, Pan American Silver, Teck, and MMG. The main sources of year - on - year decrements were South32, Vedanta, Newmont, Glencore, and Gatos silver [26][27]. - Reasons for output growth: Ore grade and recovery rate improvement, project resumption, and production increase [31]. - Reasons for output decline: Ore grade decline, force majeure factors, and production operation problems [36]. - Smelting: The zinc ingot output of key overseas smelting projects in 4Q25 increased slightly both year - on - year and quarter - on - quarter. The increase was mainly due to the improvement of factory operation efficiency, but many smelters were affected by external disturbances and did not publicly resume production actively [44]. 3.4 2026 Sample Enterprises Zinc Concentrate Output Guidance Decreased Significantly - In 2025, the actual zinc concentrate output of 11 mining enterprises was 2.738 million metal tons, in the upper - middle level of the output guidance. In 2026, the output guidance range of sample mining enterprises was 2.309 - 2.548 million metal tons, with an average year - on - year decrease of about 11%. However, the actual output may be more optimistic [49]. - The main sources of reduction were Antamina and Red Dog. The main sources of increment included Atacocha, Vazante, Aripuanã, and Ivanhoe [50][52]. 3.5 TC Views and Investment Suggestions - Zinc concentrate TC: In the short term, TC may rise slightly, but the rebound space in the first half of the year is limited. The risk lies in geopolitical influence on logistics interruption and overseas zinc smelter production cuts due to high energy costs [53]. - Lead concentrate TC: The spot TC quotation is expected to continue to be under pressure [53]. - Investment suggestions: For zinc, in the short term, wait and see; in the medium term, consider buying on dips. For lead, buy on dips, and wait and see for arbitrage [56].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The short - term fundamentals of zinc may lack drivers, and March is the time to verify the authenticity of the peak season [4]. - The Trump tariff issue is basically priced in, the political uncertainty in the United States increases, and the logic of a "weak dollar" is strengthened. The path of the Fed's interest rate cuts is highly uncertain. China's Two Sessions are about to be held, and real - estate policies will be intensified to support the market [5]. - Overall, the zinc fundamentals lack clear short - term drivers, but the macro - level is expected to gradually shift to a risk - on situation in March. Therefore, the zinc price is expected to show a slightly stronger oscillating trend in the short term. Attention should be paid to the changes in inventory data next week [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Focus - Capital Flow - After the festival, the funds in the domestic futures market showed significant structural differentiation, flowing around the three main lines of "game between strong expectations and weak reality, supply disturbance drive, and policy preview of the Two Sessions" and avoiding sectors with high inventory and weak demand [9]. - The post - festival capital activity in the non - ferrous metal sector has not fully recovered, and the volatility of non - ferrous metals has a downward trend. As of February 27, the open interest of SHFE zinc was still less than 186,000 lots, with an increase of less than 7,000 lots after the Spring Festival, far lower than the market activity after the Spring Festival last year [9]. - The VIX volatility index of SHFE zinc shows a downward trend [10]. Market Focus - Real Estate - Policy - side: After the Spring Festival, core cities represented by Shanghai took the lead in introducing new policies, including reducing the purchase - restriction threshold, increasing the provident fund quota, and optimizing the property tax, to activate market trading. Local Two Sessions clearly stated the orientation of "stabilizing the real - estate market, reducing inventory, and optimizing supply" [14]. - Market - side: As of February 25, the resumption rate of 10,692 construction sites across the country was 8.9% (slightly increased year - on - year in the lunar calendar), the labor attendance rate was 15.5% (slightly increased year - on - year in the lunar calendar), and the fund arrival rate was 29% (slightly increased year - on - year in the lunar calendar). The start of resumption of work and labor attendance was slightly earlier than last year, especially in East China [14]. - The expectation of a stabilized real - estate market has an important role in boosting the demand expectation for zinc. In 2026, the drag on real - estate demand is expected to narrow significantly, and the marginal increase in demand from the new economy can fully make up for the reduction in the real - estate sector [14]. Weekly Fundamental Situation - Main Industry News - Inner Mongolia plans to promote the upgrading of the non - ferrous metal industry in 2026, aiming to improve the deep - processing level of non - ferrous metals such as zinc [18]. - Newmont's zinc concentrate production in Q4 2025 was 46,000 tons, a 22% decrease from the previous quarter. Its total zinc concentrate production in 2025 was 231,000 tons, a 10% decrease year - on - year, and the production guidance for 2026 is 220,000 tons [18]. - New Century's zinc concentrate production in Q4 2025 was 30,000 tons, basically unchanged from the previous quarter. Its total salable zinc production in 2025 was 101,000 tons, a 22% increase year - on - year. The production guidance for 2026 is 86,300 - 98,300 tons [18]. Weekly Fundamental Situation - Zinc Concentrate Production and Processing Fees - In January 2026, China's zinc concentrate production was 294,300 metal tons, a 2.26% increase from the previous month and a 17.20% increase year - on - year. The production in February is expected to be 222,700 tons, a 7.13% decrease year - on - year [21]. - The domestic zinc concentrate TC stopped falling and stabilized at 1,500 yuan/metal ton in late December. This week, the average price rebounded to 1,550 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan increase from the previous week. It is expected that TC will continue to rebound from March to April, but the overall space is limited [22]. - This week, the import zinc concentrate processing fee index was 23.75 US dollars/dry ton, a decrease of 0.60 US dollars/dry ton from the previous week. As the import TC continues to decline, the loss of zinc concentrate imports has expanded. As of February 26, 2026, the import profit and loss of zinc concentrate was - 889 yuan/ton [22]. Weekly Fundamental Situation - Downstream Enterprises' Production and Inventory - This week, the weighted average operating rate of domestic zinc downstream primary processing enterprises was 7.62%, a 6.70 - percentage - point increase from the previous week, but still in the Spring Festival shutdown state. The average holiday days of downstream enterprises this year were 22 days, an increase of 1 day from last year. Enterprises will resume work from late February to early March [24]. - As of February 26, the total weekly raw material inventory of zinc downstream enterprises in China was 23,890 tons, a decrease of 1,014 tons from before the festival. The inventory pressure is not large, especially for die - cast zinc alloy and zinc oxide enterprises [24]. - On February 26, the weekly operating rate of galvanizing enterprises was 6.84%, a 6.2 - percentage - point increase from the previous week. The raw material inventory of galvanizing enterprises decreased slightly after the festival, and the finished - product inventory of 23 cities' galvanized sheets increased significantly during the Spring Festival. The average holiday days of 34 galvanizing sample enterprises were about 20 days, an increase of 1 day from last year. Enterprises are expected to resume production from late February to early March [30]. - On February 26, the weekly operating rate of die - cast zinc alloy enterprises was 8.73%, an 8.34 - percentage - point increase from the previous week. Before the festival, die - cast zinc alloy enterprises slowed down their purchases due to high prices, resulting in a decline in raw material inventory and a seasonal increase in finished - product inventory. The average holiday days of 20 die - cast zinc alloy sample enterprises were 23.1 days, an increase of 1.1 days from last year. The resumption time is concentrated around the eighth day of the first lunar month or the Lantern Festival [36]. - On February 26, the weekly operating rate of zinc oxide enterprises was 19.76%, a 12.3 - percentage - point increase from the previous week. The raw material inventory continued to decline to the lowest level in the same period in history, and the finished - product inventory remained at a high level in the same period in history. The industry shows obvious differentiation in holiday arrangements. The downstream orders of zinc oxide also show structural differences [42]. Weekly Fundamental Situation - LME Inventory - LME inventory has been gradually decreasing since reaching a recent peak of 112,300 tons on January 19. As of February 26, it dropped below 100,000 tons to 98,400 tons, a decrease of 3,775 tons from before the festival. The overall cancellation warrant ratio dropped to a low level, with only 7,500 tons of cancellation warrants remaining [45]. - This week, the global visible inventory reached 311,000 tons, a 47,000 - ton increase from the previous week, showing seasonal inventory accumulation [45]. Structure & Arbitrage - SHFE Zinc Spread Structure - Since late January, the domestic spot price has been at a slight discount to the SHFE zinc main contract. On Thursday this week, the average price in Shanghai was at a 105 - yuan discount to the 2604 contract, and the discount widened [49]. - Recently, the Contango structure of SHFE zinc has strengthened again. It is recommended to pay attention to the subsequent opportunity to enter the inter - period positive arbitrage, as it is expected to show a rapid inventory - reduction state after the Spring Festival this year [49]. Structure & Arbitrage - LME Zinc Structure Curve - The outer market has returned to the Contango structure since mid - December, and the discount range has recently shown a narrowing trend. As of February 27, the LME zinc 0 - 3 discount was 16.97 US dollars/ton [52]. - With the continuous inventory reduction overseas, the LME market has shown an abnormal convex structure recently. It is advisable to consider holding a positive arbitrage [52]. Structure & Arbitrage - LME Reports - The FuturesBandingReport of LME shows that the long and short forces are relatively balanced, but the short - position concentration in the far - month contracts has increased, possibly due to the seasonal short - position concentration caused by the long - term zinc ore shipment [54]. - The CashReport and WarrantBandingReport show that the market concentration decreased after the February delivery [54].