Group 1: Report Summary - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes show differences among members regarding the outlook, mainly due to concerns about the impact of tariffs on inflation [4]. - US initial jobless claims reached a four - week low, while continuing claims remained at the highest level since the end of 2021 [4]. - Some Federal Reserve officials believe there may be two interest rate cuts this year, and the impact of tariffs on prices is milder than expected, boosting market risk appetite [4]. - In the zinc market, smelting fees are relatively wide, zinc mine production is abundant, and new projects have started production, with zinc ingot output exceeding expectations [4]. - In the lead market, refined lead supply remains tight, with more maintenance in electrolytic lead smelting enterprises, and the traditional consumption season is gradually starting [4]. Group 2: Bull - Bear Focus Zinc - Bullish factors: The US dollar index remains low, and there are short - term fluctuations in smelting maintenance [7]. - Bearish factors: Zinc ingot production in June increased more than expected, and the overall inventory build - up expectation is stronger [7]. Lead - Bullish factors: Secondary lead cost support, rising prices of waste batteries, and the gradual start of the traditional consumption season [10]. - Bearish factors: The actual restocking strength of downstream is relatively limited [10]. Group 3: Data Analysis Zinc - In May 2025, China's zinc ore sand and concentrate imports were 491,522.01 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.64% and a year - on - year increase of 85.28%. Imported zinc ore processing fees are showing a rebound [12]. - In June, the average domestic zinc concentrate TC increased by 150 yuan/metal ton to 3,650 yuan/metal ton, and the average imported ore TC increased by 10 dollars/dry ton to 55 dollars/dry ton [15]. - Zinc concentrate prices declined slightly. The price of 50% zinc concentrate in Hechi was 17,170 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from last week; in Chenzhou, it was 17,090 yuan/ton, a decrease of 230 yuan/ton from last week [20]. - In May 2025, China's zinc production was 583,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%. In June, new capacity was released in some areas, and some previous maintenance enterprises resumed production [23]. - In May 2025, China's refined zinc imports were 26,716.511 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.36% and a year - on - year decrease of 39.85% [26]. - LME zinc inventory has been declining, and as of last week, it was 105,600 tons. SHFE zinc inventory increased by 3.97% to 45,364 tons in the week of July 4 [33]. Lead - In June, new energy vehicle production and sales reached 1.268 million and 1.329 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 26.4% and 26.7%. In June, China's total automobile exports were 592,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 22.2% [30]. - From January to May, China's real estate development investment cumulative year - on - year growth rate was - 10.7%, and the new construction area cumulative year - on - year growth rate was - 22.8% [30]. - This week, the lead futures and spot prices continued to rise, with a basis of 25 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap spread weakened [37]. - The weekly price of 60% lead concentrate in Kunming increased by 125 yuan/ton, and in Baoji, it increased by 34 yuan/ton [41]. - As of July 4, the lead concentrate processing fee in Jiyuan was 800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from last week; in Chenzhou, it was 300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 500 yuan/ton; in Gejiu, it was 300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 400 yuan/ton [41]. - In May 2025, China's lead production was 649,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.7%. In June, more electrolytic lead smelting enterprises had maintenance, and some secondary lead smelters had a recovery expectation [44]. - The primary lead operating rate increased to 68.46% month - on - month [47]. - The secondary lead enterprise operating rate increased by 0.20 percentage points to 34.8% month - on - month [49]. - The lead - acid battery operating rate increased by 3.06 percentage points to 71.83% month - on - month [52]. - As of July 10, LME lead inventory decreased to 252,375 tons. SHFE lead inventory increased by 2.65% to 53,303 tons in the week of July 4 [56]. Group 4: Market Outlook - For zinc, it is recommended to mainly operate in the range of 21,500 - 22,500 [59]. - For lead, it is recommended to operate in the range of 16,500 - 17,500 [59].