1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Zinc: Oscillation; Lead: Oscillation [6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 4Q25, the overall output of overseas lead - zinc mines decreased quarter - on - quarter. The zinc concentrate output of overseas sample mining enterprises was 1.288 million metal tons, a year - on - year increase of 44,000 metal tons (YoY + 3.6%); the lead concentrate output was 277,000 metal tons, a year - on - year decrease of 24,000 metal tons (YoY - 8%). The zinc ingot output of overseas smelters increased both year - on - year and quarter - on - quarter, but there was no public active resumption of production [2]. - The zinc concentrate output guidance of sample enterprises in 2026 decreased significantly. The average value decreased by about 11% year - on - year. However, the actual output may be more optimistic than the paper statistics because the incremental output of non - standard mines is not included in the statistics [3]. - For zinc concentrate TC, in the short term, TC may rise slightly, but the rebound space in the first half of the year is limited. For lead concentrate TC, the spot TC quotation is expected to continue to be under pressure [3]. - For zinc investment, in the short term, it is recommended to wait and see, and in the medium term, consider buying on dips. For lead investment, it is recommended to buy on dips, and wait and see for arbitrage [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Event Overview - Recently, overseas leading mining enterprises have basically announced their 4Q25 production operation status and 2026 output guidance. The report statistically sorted out the lead - zinc concentrate output and output guidance of 31 overseas leading mining enterprises to predict future changes in the overseas mining end [11]. 3.2 4Q25 Overseas Lead - Zinc Mine Overall Output Declined Quarter - on - Quarter - Zinc concentrate: The output of overseas sample zinc concentrate in 4Q25 was 1.288 million metal tons, a year - on - year increase of 44,000 metal tons (YoY + 3.6%) and a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 15,000 metal tons (QoQ - 1.2%). The global zinc concentrate output was 3.217 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2,000 tons (YoY + 0%) and a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 15,000 tons (QoQ - 0.5%). Peru's zinc concentrate output was 384,000 metal tons, a year - on - year increase of 65,000 metal tons (YoY + 20.4%) and a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 15,000 metal tons (QoQ - 3.8%) [12][14]. - Lead concentrate: The output of overseas sample lead concentrate in 4Q25 was 277,000 metal tons, a year - on - year decrease of 24,000 metal tons (YoY - 8%) and a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 6,000 metal tons (QoQ - 2%). The global lead concentrate output was 1.212 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 28,000 tons (YoY + 2.4%) and a quarter - on - quarter increase of 51,000 tons (QoQ + 4.4%). Peru's lead concentrate output was 78,000 metal tons, a year - on - year increase of 4,000 metal tons (YoY + 5.6%) and a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 2,000 metal tons (QoQ - 2.9%) [12][15]. - Comparison of different statistical calibers: For zinc, the increase in global zinc concentrate output in 4Q25 mainly came from China and large - scale projects in overseas statistical samples. For lead, the increase in global lead concentrate output mainly came from small - scale projects outside the samples [23]. 3.3 4Q25 Sub - mining Enterprises Output Changes and Factor Sorting - Zinc concentrate: The top five companies providing year - on - year output increments were Ivanhoe, Vedanta, Nexa, Sibanye - Stillwater, and Boliden. The top five companies with year - on - year output decreases were Peñoles, Teck, Newmont, Lundin Mining, and Volcan [25]. - Lead concentrate: The main sources of year - on - year increments were Aurelia Metals, Buenaventura, Pan American Silver, Teck, and MMG. The main sources of year - on - year decrements were South32, Vedanta, Newmont, Glencore, and Gatos silver [26][27]. - Reasons for output growth: Ore grade and recovery rate improvement, project resumption, and production increase [31]. - Reasons for output decline: Ore grade decline, force majeure factors, and production operation problems [36]. - Smelting: The zinc ingot output of key overseas smelting projects in 4Q25 increased slightly both year - on - year and quarter - on - quarter. The increase was mainly due to the improvement of factory operation efficiency, but many smelters were affected by external disturbances and did not publicly resume production actively [44]. 3.4 2026 Sample Enterprises Zinc Concentrate Output Guidance Decreased Significantly - In 2025, the actual zinc concentrate output of 11 mining enterprises was 2.738 million metal tons, in the upper - middle level of the output guidance. In 2026, the output guidance range of sample mining enterprises was 2.309 - 2.548 million metal tons, with an average year - on - year decrease of about 11%. However, the actual output may be more optimistic [49]. - The main sources of reduction were Antamina and Red Dog. The main sources of increment included Atacocha, Vazante, Aripuanã, and Ivanhoe [50][52]. 3.5 TC Views and Investment Suggestions - Zinc concentrate TC: In the short term, TC may rise slightly, but the rebound space in the first half of the year is limited. The risk lies in geopolitical influence on logistics interruption and overseas zinc smelter production cuts due to high energy costs [53]. - Lead concentrate TC: The spot TC quotation is expected to continue to be under pressure [53]. - Investment suggestions: For zinc, in the short term, wait and see; in the medium term, consider buying on dips. For lead, buy on dips, and wait and see for arbitrage [56].