张世骄（联系人） 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0015924 有色氛围积极， 下游消费转强 铅月报 从业资格号：F03120988 吴坤金（有色金属组） 从业资格号：F3036210 2025/10/10 CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估 04 需求分析 02 原生供给 05 供需库存 03 再生供给 06 价格展望 01 月度评估 月度评估 ◆ 价格回顾：9月1日至10月10日期间，沪铅指数震荡上行，收涨1.57%至17140元/吨，总持仓减少0.46万手。伦铅收涨1.63%至 2026.5美元/吨。截至报告期末，SMM1#铅锭均价16800元/吨，再生精铅均价16775元/吨，精废价差25元/吨，废电动车电池均价 10000元/吨。上期所铅锭期货库存录得3.01万吨，内盘原生基差-120元/吨，连续合约-连一合约价差-15元/吨。LME铅锭库存录 得23.61万吨，LME铅锭注销仓单录得4.96万吨。外盘cash-3S合约基差-37.3美元/吨，3-15价差-74.2美元/吨。剔汇后盘面沪伦 比价录得1.193，铅锭进口盈亏为-358.36元/吨。据钢 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-09-30 市场成交转淡 铅价维持震荡格局 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2025-09-29，LME铅现货升水为-41.63美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化-125元/吨至16800 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 25元/吨至0.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化-125元 /吨至16825元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化-125元/吨至16825元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易 日变化-113元/吨至16850元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-25元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化 25元/吨至10000元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10075元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10350元/ 吨。 期货方面：2025-09-29，沪铅主力合约开于17065元/吨，收于16855元/吨，较前一交易日变化-255元/吨，全天交易 日成交76219手，较前一交易日变化26944手，全天交易日持仓48797手，手较前一交易日变化-11865手，日内价格 震荡，最高点达到17110元/吨，最低 ...

海晏河清，时雨逢春 ——4Q25铅观点与策略 东证衍生品研究院 有色金属分析师 魏林峻 从业资格号： F03111542 投资咨询号：Z0021721 铅四季度观点与策略 3. 基本面或强于三季度——锚定下游大厂战略与拿货节奏 • 沪铅评级：震荡 • 区间走势：【16500，17800】，窄幅震荡+阶段性中小级别行情。 • 核心逻辑：1. 供应矛盾放大——原生再生的原料紧缺问题均将更深演绎 2. 需求谨慎转好——10月旺季改善 vs. 透支消费成品累库+出口承压 • 4Q观点：铅精矿和废电瓶紧缺加剧，内需在政策提振消费背景下有阶段性转好预期， 出口需求或延续承压。沪铅震荡中枢或有上移，有可能会随着消费转好，而出现中小 级别上涨行情，波动率或较三季度有所放大，操作上低多安全边际更高，需重点关注 大厂生产战略。 • 交易思路：单边跟随需求阶段性低多，内外比价推荐以区间操作为主。 • 策略推介：单边：短期建议关注逢低布局近月多单机会，中线锚定需求变化。 套利：月差有阶段性转B可能，内外比价上方阈值或在粗铅进口窗口。 套保：锚定需求节奏，长线买入套保。 • 风险提示：下游生产计划变动，宏观风险，需求超预期疲软。 铅精 ...

铅周报 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 2025 年 9 月 29 日 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 供应逐步恢复 铅价压力增大 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 铅周报 一、交易数据 | | | | 上周市场重要数据 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 9 月 19 | 日 | 9 月 26 日 | 涨跌 | 单位 | | SHFE 铅 | 17150 | | 17110 | -40 | 元/吨 | | LME 铅 | 2003 | | 2001.5 | -1.5 | 美元/吨 | | 沪伦比值 | 8.56 | | 8.5 ...

Group 1 - The lead futures market showed a slight decline, with the main contract closing at 17,075.00 CNY/ton, down 0.09% [1] - There is no expectation of an increase in lead concentrate imports, and while processing fees are likely to rise, they have not significantly impacted smelter operations [1] - The operating rate of primary lead smelters is slightly fluctuating due to maintenance schedules, while the operating rate for recycled lead smelters is below 30% due to raw material and loss factors [1] Group 2 - The demand for lead, primarily from lead-acid batteries, remains stable, with expectations for growth during the traditional consumption peak season [1] - Current market conditions show that while there is a slight improvement in the atmosphere for purchasing at lower prices, overall demand is still in a slow recovery phase without explosive growth [1] - As of September 25, 2025, the national social inventory of lead ingots was 42,200 tons, a decrease of 8,900 tons from September 22 [1] Group 3 - The recovery of supply from downstream smelters is expected to coincide with a decrease in demand, leading to potential adjustment risks for lead prices after a period of high volatility [2] - The significant drop in social inventory to a four-month low is providing support for lead prices, driven by slow recovery in the re-smelting sector and pre-holiday stocking [2]

该公司的蒙亚啊矿主要包括一个自2007年起已投入商业营运阶段的露天矿场和一个开发中的地下采矿项 目。地下矿场预期于2025年下半年进入商业运营阶段。该公司的采矿作业位于国家指定的金达整装勘查 区内，在海拔5,000.0米至5,300.0米之间，区内已被发现拥有丰富的矿产资源。分别持有面积约58.5平方 公里的探矿权及面积约4.5平方公里的采矿权。 据招股书，智汇矿业是一家矿业公司，专注中国西藏的锌、铅及铜的探矿、采矿、精矿生产及销售业 务。根据上海有色网的资料，于2022年至2024年，以锌精矿平均年产量、铅精矿平均年产量、铜精矿平 均年产量计，该公司在西藏分别排名第二、第三、第五。采矿作业位于西藏那曲市嘉黎县绒多乡。 9月26日，中国证监会国际合作司发布《关于西藏智汇矿业股份有限公司境外发行上市备案通知书》。 公司拟发行不超过140,244,000股普通股并在香港联合交易所上市。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，9月26日，中国证监会国际合作司发布《关于西藏智汇矿业股份有限公司境外发行上市备案通知书》。公司拟发行不超过140,244,000股 普通股并在香港联合交易所上市。 据招股书，智汇矿业是一家矿业公司，专注中国西藏的锌、铅及铜的探矿、采矿、精矿生产及销售业务。根据上海有色网的资料，于2022年至2024年，以锌 精矿平均年产量、铅精矿平均年产量、铜精矿平均年产量计，该公司在西藏分别排名第二、第三、第五。采矿作业位于西藏那曲市嘉黎县绒多乡。 该公司的蒙亚啊矿主要包括一个自2007年起已投入商业营运阶段的露天矿场和一个开发中的地下采矿项目。地下矿场预期于2025年下半年进入商业运营阶 段。该公司的采矿作业位于国家指定的金达整装勘查区内，在海拔5,000.0米至5,300.0米之间，区内已被发现拥有丰富的矿产资源。分别持有面积约58.5平方 公里的探矿权及面积约4.5平方公里的采矿权。 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The overall supply of Shanghai lead has decreased slightly, demand is slowly increasing. After the market digests the news from the Federal Reserve and takes profits, the market shows a high - level consolidation. It is recommended to go long on lead prices at low levels [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract is 17,090 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the 11 - 12 month contract spread for Shanghai lead is - 25 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Shanghai lead open interest is 93,632 lots, down 1,182 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is 541 lots, up 261 lots; the Shanghai lead warehouse receipts are 38,160 tons, down 3,450 tons; the SHFE inventory is 57,332 tons, down 9,229 tons; the LME 3 - month lead quote is 2,002.5 dollars/ton, up 3.5 dollars; the LME lead inventory is 219,725 tons, down 250 tons [2]. b. Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead from Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 16,950 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of 1 lead from Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 17,200 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the basis of the lead main contract is - 140 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the LME lead (0 - 3) spread is - 40.08 dollars/ton, up 2.05 dollars [2]. c. Upstream Situation - The price of lead concentrate (50% - 60%) in Jiyuan is 16,471 yuan, up 175 yuan; the domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) price is 16,830 yuan/ton, unchanged; the number of recycled lead production enterprises is 68, unchanged; the capacity utilization rate of recycled lead is 37.88%, up 0.61 percentage points; the monthly output of recycled lead is 22.42 tons, down 6.75 tons; the average weekly operating rate of primary lead is 80.56%, down 0.96 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead is 3.59 tons, unchanged; the processing fee of lead concentrate (60%) at major ports is - 90 dollars/kiloton, unchanged; the ILZSG lead supply - demand balance is - 0.5 thousand tons, up 1.3 thousand tons; the global lead ore output is 395.9 thousand tons, up 15.7 thousand tons; the monthly lead ore import volume is 13.48 tons, up 1.27 tons [2]. d. Industry Situation - The monthly refined lead import volume is 1,820.55 tons, down 1,596.29 tons; the monthly refined lead export volume is 2,752.22 tons, up 957.7 tons; the average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory is 370 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of waste batteries in the market is 10,091.07 yuan/ton, down 23.22 yuan [2]. e. Downstream Situation - The monthly export volume of batteries is 49,680 thousand units, up 1,925 thousand units; the average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, 2% antimony content) is 20,075 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Shenwan industry index of batteries and other cells is 2,188.73 points, up 55.3 points; the monthly automobile output is 275.24 tons, up 24.24 tons; the monthly new - energy vehicle output is 133.3 tons, up 15.7 tons [2]. f. Industry News - US Treasury Secretary Yellen believes that the Fed's interest rates have been too high for too long and the US will enter an easing cycle; FOMC voter Goolsbee warns against a series of rate cuts due to inflation concerns; San Francisco Fed President Daly thinks further rate cuts may be needed; the US has officially lowered tariffs on EU cars to 15% since August 1, 2025; the US has launched a 232 - clause investigation on imported medical devices and industrial machinery; the Kremlin criticizes Trump for trying to force the world to buy US oil and gas at higher prices; the "Fed whisperer" indicates that Powell's remarks suggest further rate cuts may be possible; Sino - US economic and trade negotiations have made initial progress [2]. g. View Summary - The Fed's news has opened up rate - cut space, which has a positive impact on the market sentiment; on the supply side, some primary lead smelters are in maintenance, the raw material market is in tight balance, and the recycled lead production is restricted; on the demand side, the traditional consumption peak season is approaching, the demand in emerging fields is good, but the overall demand is still in a slow - recovery stage; the overall inventory has decreased, indicating that demand has effectively reduced inventory [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Lead**: In August 2025, the import volume of lead concentrate increased. The supply of lead is expected to be tightened in the short - term, with the production of primary lead fluctuating slightly and the production of recycled lead decreasing. Demand has not improved significantly, and the peak - season effect is not obvious. Short - term lead prices are expected to remain high, but the upside space may be limited [1]. - **Zinc**: In August 2025, the import volume of zinc concentrate decreased slightly compared to July but increased year - on - year. The supply of zinc is increasing, and demand has slightly improved but may be affected by typhoon weather. Although the fundamentals of Shanghai zinc are weak, the low LME zinc inventory and the back structure of LME 0 - 3 provide strong support for zinc prices. The short - term downside space of Shanghai zinc may be limited [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Lead - **Price and Market Data**: The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,975 yuan/ton, down 0.15% from the previous day. The closing price of the futures main contract was 17,085 yuan/ton, down 0.23%. The trading volume of the active futures contract increased by 100.07% to 48,758 lots, and the open interest increased by 133.09% to 63,941 lots. The LME inventory was 219,975 tons, and the Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 6.19% to 41,610 tons [1]. - **Import and Export**: In August 2025, the import volume of lead concentrate was 134,800 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.23% and a year - on - year increase of 15.22%. The cumulative import volume in 2025 reached 927,700 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 28.18%. The export volume of lead - acid batteries in August was 18.1577 million pieces, a month - on - month decrease of 14.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 19.14%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative export volume was 152 million pieces, a year - on - year decrease of 7.93% [1]. - **Fundamentals and Outlook**: The supply of lead concentrate is not expected to increase, and processing fees are likely to rise. The production of primary lead fluctuates slightly, and the production of recycled lead decreases. Demand has not improved significantly, and the peak - season effect is not obvious. Short - term lead prices are expected to remain high, but the upside space may be limited [1]. Zinc - **Price and Market Data**: The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots was 21,810 yuan/ton, down 0.32% from the previous day. The closing price of the futures main contract was 21,845 yuan/ton, down 1.11%. The trading volume of the active futures contract decreased by 10.81% to 125,331 lots, and the open interest increased by 7.63% to 140,372 lots. The LME inventory was 45,775 tons, and the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory increased by 2.83% to 56,613 tons [1]. - **Import and Project News**: In August 2025, the import volume of zinc concentrate was 467,300 tons (physical tons), a month - on - month decrease of 6.8% and a year - on - year increase of 30.06%. From January to August, the cumulative import volume was 3.5027 million tons (physical tons), a cumulative year - on - year increase of 43.06%. The Baijiuchang Mine of Shandong Zhaojin Group and Mengzi Mining Company resumed production, with an expected output of 250,000 - 300,000 tons in the second half of the year and an increase in comprehensive output value of 25% [1]. - **Fundamentals and Outlook**: The raw material inventory of zinc smelters is sufficient, and processing fees are rising. The supply of zinc is increasing, and demand has slightly improved but may be affected by typhoon weather. Although the fundamentals of Shanghai zinc are weak, the low LME zinc inventory and the back structure of LME 0 - 3 provide strong support for zinc prices. The short - term downside space of Shanghai zinc may be limited [1]. 4. Trading Strategies - **Lead**: Temporarily hold off on trading [1]. - **Zinc**: Try to go long at low prices with a light position [1].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The market's optimistic sentiment has cooled as the positive impact of the Fed's rate cut has materialized. The fundamentals are expected to show a situation of both supply and demand increasing. Primary lead smelters will resume production in the second half of the month, and some secondary lead smelters will resume production due to profit recovery, leading to an expected increase in supply. At the same time, the pre - holiday stocking demand of downstream enterprises has improved, and purchases have increased. With multiple factors at play, it is expected that lead prices will remain volatile at high levels in the short term, and there may be a slight adjustment after the downstream stocking ends [3][7] Group 3: Summary by Directory Transaction Data - From September 12th to September 19th, the SHFE lead price rose from 17,040 yuan/ton to 17,150 yuan/ton, an increase of 110 yuan/ton; the LME lead price fell from 2,019 dollars/ton to 2,003 dollars/ton, a decrease of 16 dollars/ton; the Shanghai - London ratio increased from 8.44 to 8.56, an increase of 0.12; the SHFE inventory decreased by 9,229 tons to 57,332 tons; the LME inventory decreased by 9,275 tons to 220,300 tons; the social inventory increased by 0.35 million tons to 3.94 million tons; the spot premium increased by 10 yuan/ton to - 115 yuan/ton [4] Market Review - Last week, the main contract of SHFE lead switched to PB2511, and the futures price fluctuated narrowly at a high level, closing at 17,180 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 0.76%. LME lead fluctuated sideways around 2,000 dollars/ton, closing at 2,003 dollars/ton, a weekly decrease of 0.79%. In the spot market, the supply of goods was limited, and holders held firm on prices. Downstream enterprises mainly made purchases based on rigid demand and preferred to buy directly from smelters [5] Industry News - In the week of September 12th, the average domestic lead concentrate processing fee remained unchanged at 350 yuan/metal ton compared with the previous week, while the average imported lead concentrate processing fee decreased by 10 dollars/dry ton to - 100 dollars/dry ton [8] Related Charts - The report includes multiple charts showing the trends of SHFE and LME lead prices, Shanghai - London ratio, inventory, lead ingot premium, price difference between primary and secondary lead, waste battery prices, secondary lead enterprise profits, lead ore processing fees, electrolytic lead and secondary refined lead production, lead ingot social inventory, and refined lead import profit and loss [10][13][17][20][21]