1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - Lead may continue to fluctuate weakly. The supply of recycled lead is slowly recovering due to ongoing losses, but the expected decline in demand during the off - season will intensify the pressure of lead inventory accumulation, and the inflow of imports will also contribute to this situation. Later, attention should be paid to the resumption of recycled lead production and domestic inventory conditions [1][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Changes - In February 2026, the import volume of lead concentrate was about 128,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.78% and a year - on - year increase of 26.4%. The import volume of lead concentrate in the first two months of this year increased significantly year - on - year, higher than the same period in previous years. The domestic and foreign lead concentrate processing fees remained stable. In April, the domestic monthly processing fee was 200 - 300 yuan/ton, flat month - on - month; the import monthly processing fee was - 150 - - 120 US dollars/dry ton, an increase of 15 US dollars/dry ton month - on - month. The domestic lead ore weekly processing fee was 200 - 300 yuan/ton, flat week - on - week; the import weekly processing fee was - 150 - - 120 US dollars/dry ton, flat week - on - week [2] Supply - In February, the domestic electrolytic lead output was 283,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17.07% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.21%. In February 2026, the output of recycled refined lead was 154,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 45.18% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.36%. As of the week of March 27, the average operating rate of primary lead smelters in three provinces was 62.81%, a week - on - week increase of 0.22%. At the end of March, smelters in Yunnan and other places that postponed resumption of production gradually produced output, and the new production capacity in Xinjiang and Henan was ramping up, with a clear increase in supply. The lead concentrate processing fee (TC) remained at a low level, and the by - product silver revenue declined, squeezing the profit space of smelters and limiting the motivation for further production increase. The weekly operating rate of recycled lead in four provinces was 43.26%, a week - on - week increase of 3.69%. The price of waste batteries was firm, and the loss of recycled lead continued, with the loss margin narrowing slightly. Large factories in Anhui, Jiangxi and other places resumed production intensively in late March, driving the increase in the operating rate; but in Jiangsu, Hebei and other places, due to the intensification of losses, some small and medium - sized factories chose to reduce production or carry out maintenance at the end of the month. The operating rate of recycled lead may continue to climb slowly. In terms of imports, the Shanghai - London price ratio rebounded, and the import of refined lead remained in a profitable state, and the overseas lead surplus pressure flowed into the domestic market [3] Consumption - Last week, the weekly comprehensive operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises in five provinces remained stable. Leading enterprises (such as Tianneng and Chaowei) maintained a production rate of over 80% or even full production to seize market share, but the operating rate of small and medium - sized factories has dropped to the range of 65% - 70% due to the decline in orders. On the raw material side, due to the fluctuating lead price and the approaching off - season, enterprises generally "buy on the rise rather than on the fall" and only maintain a safety inventory of 4 - 5 days; on the finished product side, due to the decline in the提货 willingness of dealers, the inventory days have increased significantly compared with February. April - May is the traditional off - season for lead consumption. With high finished product inventory, enterprises may shift from "production based on sales" to active production reduction, and the operating rate may decline [4] Spot - As of the week of March 27, the domestic lead spot basis changed from a premium to a discount, and the lead spot basis at the weekend was a discount of 65 yuan. The LME lead spot remained at a deep discount, with a discount of - 35.16 US dollars at the weekend [4] Inventory - As of the week of March 27, the LME lead weekly inventory decreased by 1,025 tons to 283,000 tons. The LME inventory declined from a high level and was at an absolute high in the past five years; the weekly inventory of lead on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 57,579 tons to 66,100 tons. As of March 30, the domestic lead ingot social inventory was 60,100 tons, a month - on - month increase, at a moderately high level [4]

Group 1: Report Information - Report title: Lead 3 Monthly Report, R & D Report of Non - ferrous Metals Sector [10][22][28] - Report date: March 31, 2026 [10][22][28] Group 2: Core View - The supply - demand contradiction of lead is not prominent, and the lead price may maintain a range - bound oscillation [4] Group 3: Fundamental Situation Lead Ore and Supply - Global lead concentrate production is presented in figures measured in thousands of tons [26] - Lead concentrate import profit and loss, import volume, domestic production, and total supply are shown in figures, with import volume in ten thousand physical tons and production in ten thousand tons [33][36] - The price of lead - containing waste and waste batteries is presented in figures measured in yuan per ton [45] Refined Lead - Global refined lead production, demand, and balance are presented in figures measured in thousands of tons [47][48] - China's electrolytic lead monthly production is presented in figures measured in ten thousand tons [55] - The monthly total and scale - divided start - up rates of primary lead smelting, lead concentrate processing fees, and primary lead smelting profit are presented in figures, with the start - up rate in percentage and profit in yuan per ton [57][59] - The monthly total and scale - divided start - up rates, cost, production profit, and monthly output of secondary lead smelting are presented in figures, with the start - up rate in percentage, cost and profit in yuan per ton, and output in ten thousand tons [65][70][72] - Refined lead import and export profit and loss, import and export volume are presented in figures, with profit and loss in yuan per ton and volume in ten thousand tons [76][78] - Domestic lead ingot total supply and monthly apparent consumption are presented in figures measured in ten thousand tons [81] - Domestic lead concentrate and lead ingot supply data from 2025 to 2026 are presented in a table, including production, net import volume, total supply, etc., with production and supply in ten thousand tons and growth rate in percentage [84] Downstream Demand - SMM lead - acid battery monthly and weekly start - up rates are presented in figures [87] - Lead - acid battery import and export are presented in figures [92] - Lead - acid battery enterprise and dealer monthly finished product inventory days are presented in figures [93] - Automobile, new energy vehicle, motorcycle production, and automobile export, new energy vehicle export are presented in figures [97][105][111] - Power project investment completion amount, communication base station construction volume, and lead alloy import and export are presented in figures [113][115] Group 4: Market Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - The report has a section on market outlook and strategy recommendation, but specific content is not provided in the given text [123]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating and sets a target price of 33.45 CNY [5][11] Core Insights - The growth of Yulong Copper Mine, driven by expansion and resource increase, supports the company's internal growth. The company is transitioning from resource monetization to a growth-oriented platform for copper, gold, and iron [2][11] - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.643 billion CNY in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 24.26% [11] - The report highlights the strategic importance of Yulong Copper Mine, which has a current ore processing capacity of 22.8 million tons per year, set to increase to 30 million tons per year after the approval of the third-phase project in June 2025 [11] - The company has secured exploration rights for the Chating Copper Polymetallic Mine and mining rights for the Golmud Iron Polymetallic Mine, which will enhance resource reserves and support future growth [11] Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 50.026 billion CNY in 2024 to 68.988 billion CNY in 2028, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.0% from 2024 to 2025 [4][14] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to increase from 2.932 billion CNY in 2024 to 7.256 billion CNY in 2028, with significant growth in 2026 at 5.314 billion CNY, a 45.9% increase year-on-year [4][11] - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to rise from 1.23 CNY in 2024 to 3.05 CNY in 2028, reflecting the company's improving profitability [4][13] Market Data - The company's market capitalization is approximately 60.743 billion CNY, with a current share price of 25.49 CNY [6] - The stock has a 52-week price range of 14.44 CNY to 39.55 CNY, indicating significant volatility [6] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 20.72 in 2024 to 8.37 in 2028, suggesting an attractive valuation as earnings grow [4][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.724 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.00%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 542 million yuan, up 13.69% year-on-year [4] - In Q4 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 544 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 24.49% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 40.21%. The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q4 was 196 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 54.33% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 110.75% [4] - Zinc and lead concentrate production for 2025 was 71,800 tons and 22,500 tons, respectively, marking increases of 16.61% and 8.90% year-on-year [4] Financial Performance - The company expects to achieve revenues of 2.034 billion yuan, 2.462 billion yuan, and 2.766 billion yuan for 2026, 2027, and 2028, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 18.00%, 21.03%, and 12.34% [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 689 million yuan, 834 million yuan, and 1 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 27.12%, 20.97%, and 19.91% [6] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.70 yuan, 0.85 yuan, and 1.02 yuan for 2026, 2027, and 2028, respectively [6] Production and Expansion - The company is actively promoting resource expansion and production increase, with the new 1.5 million tons/year flotation plant at Xiejiaogou having completed trial operations [6] - The acquisition of the remaining 51% stake in Gansu Haosen Mining Co., Ltd. has been completed, and the integration of the Jianglu mining area is fully accomplished [6] - High-grade ore bodies have been discovered in the Dongpo lead-zinc mine, with lead grades ranging from 0.80% to 38.86% and silver grades from 2 g/t to 309 g/t [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead market is neutral [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The lead market shows a pattern of weak overseas and stable domestic conditions, with a supply - demand game. Overseas lead prices are dragged down by geopolitical factors, while domestic lead prices decline less. The expanding losses of secondary lead and the reduction of primary lead factory inventories provide phased support. There is a co - existence of high - pressure social inventories and downstream low - price restocking, and the opening of the import window brings an incremental expectation. Terminal demand is structurally differentiated, with strong data center orders but the civilian battery market entering the off - season. Next week, lead prices may decline first and then rise, and downstream enterprises will maintain low - price rigid demand procurement. Investors should pay attention to the pace of social inventory reduction and the actual arrival of imported lead and operate cautiously. The expected weekly operating range of lead prices is between 16,200 yuan/ton and 16,800 yuan/ton, and enterprises can conduct corresponding buy and sell hedging operations based on this range [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On March 24, 2026, the LME lead spot premium was - 39.61 US dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged at 16,275 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium and discount remained unchanged at 0.00 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price remained unchanged at 16,350 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Henan lead spot price increased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,300 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium and discount increased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,300 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The lead concentrate - scrap price difference remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 9,800 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The price of waste white shells remained unchanged at 9,875 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The price of waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,100 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day [1] Futures - On March 24, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,495 yuan/ton and closed at 16,420 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 49,289 lots, a decrease of 14,155 lots compared with the previous trading day. The position for the whole trading day was 84,978 lots, a decrease of 4,229 lots compared with the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 16,515 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16,385 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,420 yuan/ton and closed at 16,470 yuan/ton, a 0.30% increase compared with the afternoon closing price of the previous day [2] Inventory - On March 24, 2026, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 63,000 tons, a decrease of 14,500 tons compared with the same period last week. As of March 24, the LME lead inventory was 283,350 tons, a decrease of 25 tons compared with the previous trading day [2] Strategy - The investment rating for the lead market is neutral. For options, it is recommended to sell call options. The expected weekly operating range of lead prices is between 16,200 yuan/ton and 16,800 yuan/ton, and enterprises can conduct corresponding buy and sell hedging operations based on this range [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The lead price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. Although the losses of secondary lead enterprises and their delayed resumption of production support the lead price, downstream demand is weak, and the pressure of imported lead inflow persists [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Changes - **Processing Fees**: In February 2026, the import volume of lead concentrate was about 128,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.78% and a year - on - year increase of 26.4%. The import volume in the first two months of this year increased significantly year - on - year. Domestic and foreign lead concentrate processing fees remained stable. The domestic monthly processing fee in March was 200 - 300 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change; the imported monthly processing fee was - 160--140 US dollars/dry ton, also with no month - on - month change. The domestic weekly processing fee for lead ore was 200 - 300 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change; the imported weekly processing fee was - 150--120 US dollars/dry ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10 US dollars/dry ton [2]. - **Supply**: In February 2026, the domestic electrolytic lead output was 283,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17.07% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.21%. The output of secondary refined lead was 154,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 45.18% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.36%. In March, primary lead entered the centralized resumption period. As of the week of March 20, the average operating rate of primary lead smelters in three provinces was 62.59%, a week - on - week increase of 1.52%. The weekly operating rate of secondary lead in four provinces was 39.57%, a week - on - week increase of 10.42%. The price of waste batteries is firm, and the losses of secondary lead enterprises have expanded, with possible production cuts and delayed resumption of production. The Shanghai - London price ratio has risen, and refined lead imports are in a continuous profitable state, with overseas lead surplus pressure flowing into the domestic market [3]. - **Consumption**: The weekly comprehensive operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises in five provinces last week was 73.92%, a week - on - week increase of 0.46%. The production of lead - acid battery enterprises is relatively stable. The terminal consumption of electric bicycles and automobile battery markets is mediocre. Currently, the lead price is adjusted at a low level, and battery enterprises replenish inventory at low prices, alleviating the domestic lead inventory pressure. However, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is still general, and most purchases are for rigid needs. Considering the consumption off - season in April, it is expected that the domestic lead ingot social inventory will stop falling and start to rise in mid - to - late April [4]. - **Spot**: As of the week of March 20, the domestic lead spot basis premium increased, and the weekend lead spot basis was a premium of 165 yuan. The LME lead spot remained in a deep discount, with a weekend discount of - 39.51 US dollars [4]. - **Inventory**: As of the week of March 20, the LME lead weekly inventory decreased by 400 tons to 284,100 tons, with the LME inventory oscillating at a high level, at an absolute high in the past five years; the weekly inventory of lead on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 9,939 tons to 66,100 tons. As of March 23, the domestic lead ingot social inventory was 63,100 tons, a month - on - month decline, at a moderately high level [4]. Market Outlook and Strategy - Overseas lead supply is loose, with high - level oscillation of LME lead inventory and deep spot discounts. Overseas mine supply is gradually recovering, but the release period is mainly in the second half of the year. Although the import volume of lead ore has increased significantly year - on - year, the recovery of domestic lead ore supply is still limited, and the domestic lead ore supply shortage has not improved, with processing fees remaining at a low level. Primary lead enterprises have high production enthusiasm, and the operating rate of primary lead has steadily recovered. Currently, the price of waste batteries is firm, secondary lead enterprises have large losses, and although the operating rate has increased month - on - month, the resumption of production of some enterprises has been delayed. The Shanghai - London price ratio has risen, and the domestic import profit has expanded, with overseas lead surplus pressure shifting to the domestic market. - Currently, the lead price is adjusted at a low level, and battery enterprises replenish inventory at low prices, alleviating the domestic lead inventory pressure. However, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is still general, and most purchases are for rigid needs. The second quarter is the off - season for lead consumption, demand will weaken month - on - month, and inventory may rise again. - Overall, the large losses of secondary lead enterprises, their delayed resumption of production, and production cuts support the lead price. However, downstream demand is general, and under the pressure of imported inflows, the low - level oscillation of lead is difficult to change. Later, attention should be paid to the resumption of production of secondary lead and the domestic inventory situation [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Last week, the main contract of Shanghai lead fluctuated widely at a low level. The Fed's hawkish stance and the escalating situation between the US and Iran led to a decline in interest - rate cut expectations and increased concerns about economic downturn, suppressing the risk - asset market. The fundamentals showed limited improvement. The losses of secondary lead smelters led to an expectation of supply tightening, and the prices of lead ore and waste batteries remained firm, providing cost support. However, poor battery consumption and the inflow of crude lead kept lead ingot inventories at a high level, restricting the rebound space of lead prices. In the short term, both macro and micro supports are limited, and it is expected that lead prices will fluctuate in a low - level range [4][7][8] Group 3: Summary by Directory Transaction Data - From March 13th to March 20th, the SHFE lead price dropped from 16,555 yuan/ton to 16,290 yuan/ton, a decrease of 265 yuan/ton; the LME lead price fell from 1,903 US dollars/ton to 1,889 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 14 US dollars/ton; the Shanghai - London ratio decreased from 8.70 to 8.62; the SHFE inventory decreased by 9,939 tons to 66,110 tons; the LME inventory decreased by 400 tons to 284,100 tons; the social inventory increased by 0.11 million tons to 7.76 million tons; the spot premium remained at - 190 yuan/ton [5] Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract PB2605 of Shanghai lead stabilized at a low level and then fluctuated widely. The downstream battery enterprises' buying improved after the lead price decline, but the cautious macro - sentiment, the collective pressure on the precious metal and non - ferrous metal sectors, and the weak fundamentals restricted the rebound space of lead prices. The weekly decline was 1.9%, closing at 16,290 yuan/ton. The LME lead price fell below the 1,900 US dollars/ton line, with a decline of 0.74%, closing at 1,889 US dollars/ton. In the spot market, there were differences in the prices of electrolytic lead and secondary lead, and the downstream enterprises' purchasing was mainly long - term contracts, with regional differences in the spot market transactions [6] Industry News - On March 20, 2026, the domestic lead concentrate processing fee was 250 yuan/metal ton, unchanged from the previous period; the import processing fee was - 135 US dollars/dry ton, an increase of 10 US dollars/dry ton from the previous period. From January to February 2026, the cumulative import volume of lead concentrate was 252,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.8%; the cumulative import volume of silver concentrate was 328,600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.27%. The cumulative import volume of refined lead and lead products was 81,234 tons, a year - on - year increase of 270%; the cumulative export volume was 7,798 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 33.27%. The cumulative export volume of starting lead - acid batteries was 11.3772 million units, a year - on - year increase of 3.98%; the cumulative export volume of other lead - acid batteries was 22.6906 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 5.1% [9] Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including SHFE and LME lead prices, Shanghai - London ratio, SHFE and LME inventories, 1 lead premium and discount, primary lead and secondary refined lead price difference, enterprise operating rates, secondary lead enterprise profits, electrolytic lead production, lead ingot social inventory, lead ore weekly processing fees, and refined lead import and export profit and loss [11][12][15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [4][6][23] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 3.161 billion RMB in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 68.5%. The gross profit reached 2.348 billion RMB, up 135.5%, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.355 billion RMB, also up 135.5% [1][9] - The Solomon Gold Mine expansion project, aiming for an additional 10 million tons per year, is expected to be operational by 2027, significantly enhancing future gold production [3][18] - The company has optimized its cost structure, with the unit sales cost for gold at the Solomon Gold Mine decreasing by 23.9% year-on-year, highlighting a strong cost advantage [2][13] Financial Performance - For 2026-2028, the company forecasts revenues of 6.218 billion RMB, 9.770 billion RMB, and 17.545 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of 96.7%, 57.1%, and 79.6% respectively [4][23] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 3.027 billion RMB, 4.422 billion RMB, and 7.965 billion RMB for the same period, with growth rates of 123.4%, 46.1%, and 80.1% respectively [4][23] - The diluted EPS is expected to be 0.68 RMB, 1.00 RMB, and 1.80 RMB for 2026, 2027, and 2028, respectively, with the current stock price corresponding to P/E ratios of 15, 10, and 6 times [4][23] Production and Cost Metrics - In 2025, the total ore processed at the Jiangxi Yifeng Xinzhang Mine was approximately 1.1042 million tons, with copper equivalent sales remaining stable at around 10,304 tons [2][11] - The Solomon Gold Mine's mining volume reached 3.3553 million tons, a 23.7% increase year-on-year, with gold ingot sales of 2,273.6 kg, up 44.5% [2][11] - The unit sales cost for copper equivalent at the Jiangxi Yifeng Xinzhang Mine was approximately 30,800 RMB per ton, reflecting a 5.2% increase year-on-year [2][13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lead market is currently under pressure, with low recycling start - up rates and significant spot pressure. The lead price may decline further due to insufficient domestic demand for lead ingots and an increase in the concentration of short - selling positions. The subsequent situation of the recovery of recycling smelter start - up rates needs to be observed [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment - **Price Review**: The Shanghai Lead Index closed down 0.30% to 16,586 yuan/ton last Friday, with a total unilateral trading position of 141,800 lots. As of 15:00 last Friday, LME Lead 3S fell 4.5 to 1,933 US dollars/ton, with a total position of 173,000 lots. The average price of SMM 1 lead ingots and recycled refined lead is 16,425 yuan/ton, with a flat refined - scrap price difference. The average price of waste electric vehicle batteries is 9,925 yuan/ton [11]. - **Domestic Structure**: The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory is 67,000 tons. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets on March 12 was 77,700 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons from March 9. The domestic primary basis is - 75 yuan/ton, and the spread between continuous contracts and the first - consecutive contract is - 20 yuan/ton. The overseas structure shows that the LME lead ingot inventory is 284,500 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants are 4,900 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis is - 47.22 US dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread is - 137.1 US dollars/ton. The cross - market structure shows that the ex - exchange rate Shanghai - London ratio is 1.246, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots is 511.55 yuan/ton [11]. - **Industry Data**: At the primary end, the lead concentrate port inventory is 39,000 tons, and the factory inventory is 468,000 tons, equivalent to 31.4 days. The lead concentrate import TC is - 145 US dollars/dry ton, and the domestic TC is 250 yuan/metal ton. The primary start - up rate is 61.07%, and the primary ingot factory inventory is 29,000 tons. At the recycling end, the lead waste inventory is 102,000 tons, the recycling start - up rate is 23.00%, and the recycled ingot factory inventory is 19,000 tons. At the demand end, the lead - acid battery start - up rate is 71.68% [11]. - **Market Outlook**: The visible inventory of lead concentrates has slightly declined, and the lead concentrate TC has stopped falling and stabilized. The profit of primary smelting has回调 due to the silver price, the primary lead start - up rate is gradually recovering, and the primary factory inventory is declining. The visible inventory of lead waste continues to decline, the profit of recycled lead smelting is under great pressure, the start - up rate of recycled lead smelters has limited recovery, and the recycled factory inventory is declining. The start - up rate of downstream battery enterprises has recovered, but procurement has not improved. The inventory of distributors in February has been well reduced, and the pressure on finished product inventory has been relieved. Currently, the lead ingot import window is wide open, the export of lead - acid batteries has decreased, and the overseas surplus of deliverable inventory flowing into the domestic market has a suppressing effect. Although the inventory reduction of battery finished products has improved, battery enterprises still have not carried out large - scale spot purchases. Insufficient domestic demand for lead ingots and an increase in the concentration of short - selling positions may lead to a further decline in lead prices [11]. 3.2. Primary Supply - **Import and Production Data**: In December 2025, the net import of lead concentrates was 149,200 physical tons, a year - on - year change of 24.63% and a month - on - month change of 35.87%. From January to December, the cumulative net import of lead concentrates was 1,425,300 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 15.11%. In December 2025, the net import of silver concentrates was 239,300 physical tons, a year - on - year change of 89.27% and a month - on - month change of 31.21%. From January to December, the cumulative net import of silver concentrates was 1,931,000 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 13.6%. In February 2026, China's lead concentrate production was 89,600 metal tons, a year - on - year change of - 9.7% and a month - on - month change of - 29.4%. From January to February, the total production of lead concentrates was 216,500 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 2.7%. In December 2025, the net import of lead - containing ores was 185,200 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 51.34% and a month - on - month change of 33.42%. From January to December, the cumulative net import of lead - containing ores was 1,627,700 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 14.39% [15][17]. - **Total Supply and Overseas Production**: In December 2025, China's total supply of lead concentrates was 311,500 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 27.78% and a month - on - month change of 13.11%. From January to December, the cumulative supply of lead concentrates was 3,285,900 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 12.07%. In December 2025, the overseas lead ore production was 275,900 tons, a year - on - year change of - 1.15% and a month - on - month change of 3.8%. From January to December, the total production of lead ore was 2,958,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of - 1.16% [19]. - **Inventory and Processing Fees**: The lead concentrate port inventory is 39,000 tons, and the factory inventory is 468,000 tons, equivalent to 31.4 days. The lead concentrate import TC is - 145 US dollars/dry ton, and the domestic TC is 250 yuan/metal ton, and the lead concentrate TC has stopped falling and stabilized [21][23]. - **Smelting Start - up and Production**: The primary start - up rate is 61.07%, and the primary ingot factory inventory is 29,000 tons. In February 2025, China's primary lead production was 283,800 tons, a year - on - year change of 2.0% and a month - on - month change of - 17.1%. From January to February, the total production of primary lead ingots was 626,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 10.1% [26]. 3.3. Recycled Supply - **Raw Materials and Production**: At the recycling end, the lead waste inventory is 102,000 tons. The recycling start - up rate is 23.00%, and the recycled ingot factory inventory is 19,000 tons. In February 2025, China's recycled lead production was 217,600 tons, a year - on - year change of - 2.9% and a month - on - month change of - 40.4%. From January to February, the total production of recycled lead ingots was 582,600 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 12.9% [31][33]. - **Import and Total Supply**: In December 2025, the net export of lead ingots was - 28,600 tons, a year - on - year change of 111.23% and a month - on - month change of 25.65%. From January to December, the cumulative net export of lead ingots was - 146,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of - 22.13%. In December 2025, the total domestic supply of lead ingots was 715,800 tons, a year - on - year change of 8.04% and a month - on - month change of - 1.09%. From January to December, the cumulative domestic supply of lead ingots was 7,956,800 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.72% [35]. 3.4. Demand Analysis - **Battery Start - up and Apparent Demand**: At the demand end, the lead - acid battery start - up rate is 71.68%. In December 2025, the domestic apparent demand for lead ingots was 719,800 tons, a year - on - year change of 5.09% and a month - on - month change of - 0.44%. From January to December, the cumulative domestic apparent demand for lead ingots was 7,969,100 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.27% [38]. - **Battery Export**: In December 2025, the net export quantity of lead - containing batteries was 1,664,900 units, a year - on - year change of - 35.22% and a month - on - month change of 8.81%. From January to December, the total net export of batteries was 213 million units, and the cumulative net export year - on - year change was - 13.06% [41]. - **Inventory Changes**: In February 2026, the finished product inventory days of lead - acid batteries in factories decreased from 23.5 days to 23 days, and the inventory days of lead - acid batteries in distributors decreased from 40.74 days to 33.35 days [43]. - **Terminal Demand**: In the two - wheeled vehicle sector, although the decline in electric bicycle production directly drags down the new installation demand, the continuous growth of delivery scenarios such as express delivery and takeaway drives the improvement of the new installation consumption of electric two - and three - wheeled vehicles. In the automobile sector, the contribution of lead demand is expected to maintain stable growth. Although new energy vehicles use lithium iron phosphate starting batteries, the high stock of existing vehicles and the high replacement demand support the domestic lead ingot consumption. In the base station sector, the increasing number of communication base stations and 5G base stations drives the steady increase in the demand for lead - acid batteries [48][50][53]. 3.5. Supply - Demand Inventory - **Domestic Lead Ingot Balance**: In December 2025, the domestic lead ingot supply - demand gap was a shortage of 4,000 tons. From January to December, the cumulative domestic lead ingot supply - demand gap was a shortage of 12,400 tons [61]. - **Overseas Lead Ingot Balance**: In November 2025, the overseas refined lead supply - demand gap was a surplus of 30,200 tons. From January to November, the cumulative overseas refined lead supply - demand gap was a surplus of 171,400 tons [64]. 3.6. Price Outlook - **Domestic Structure**: The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory is 67,000 tons. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets on March 12 was 77,700 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons from March 9. The domestic primary basis is - 75 yuan/ton, and the spread between continuous contracts and the first - consecutive contract is - 20 yuan/ton [69]. - **Overseas Structure**: The LME lead ingot inventory is 284,500 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants are 4,900 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis is - 47.22 US dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread is - 137.1 US dollars/ton [72]. - **Cross - Market Structure**: The ex - exchange rate Shanghai - London ratio is 1.246, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots is 511.55 yuan/ton [75]. - **Position Changes**: The net short position of LME lead investment funds has increased, and the net short position of commercial enterprises has decreased [78].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The lead price is expected to remain in a low - level wide - range oscillation pattern, with limited downstream demand boosting the price and high domestic inventory pressuring it. However, the firm price of waste batteries provides strong support for the lead price. Future attention should be paid to the resumption of production of recycled lead and the progress of recycled lead's inclusion in the delivery system [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Changes - Processing Fees - In December 2025, the import volume of lead concentrate was about 149,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 35.8% and a year - on - year increase of 24.63%. The import volume of lead ore has increased month - on - month for two consecutive months, but the domestic lead concentrate market demand is high in winter, and the domestic mine supply shortage continues. The domestic and foreign lead concentrate processing fees have further declined at a low level. In March, the domestic monthly processing fee was 200 - 300 yuan/ton, flat month - on - month; the import monthly processing fee was - 160 - - 140 US dollars/dry ton, flat month - on - month. In terms of spot processing fees, the domestic weekly processing fee for lead ore was 200 - 300 yuan/ton, flat week - on - week; the import weekly processing fee was - 160 - - 130 US dollars/dry ton, flat week - on - week [2] 3.2 Fundamental Changes - Supply - In February 2026, the domestic electrolytic lead production was 283,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17.07% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.21%. The production of recycled refined lead in February 2026 was 154,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 45.18% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.36%. After the Spring Festival, the maintenance of primary lead enterprises ended, and the current precious metal prices are still high, so the profits of primary lead smelting enterprises are still considerable, and the production has increased month - on - month. After the Lantern Festival, the losses of recycled lead enterprises expanded, causing the originally expected centralized resumption of production in early March to be postponed to after mid - March. It is expected that the effective production of recycled lead will be concentrated in the second half of the month. If the losses continue, the resumption of production in late March may fall short of expectations, and the tight supply of recycled lead may support the lead price periodically. Currently, after the lead price has fallen, the price of waste batteries is relatively resistant to decline, and recycled lead enterprises are deeply in losses. In addition, the inclusion of recycled lead as a deliverable (implemented on March 17) will increase the deliverable supply in the futures market, reducing the risk of cornering the market and putting pressure on the overall valuation. In terms of imports, the Shanghai - London ratio has rebounded, and refined lead is in a state of import profit, so the overseas lead surplus pressure will flow into the domestic market [3] 3.3 Fundamental Changes - Consumption - The weekly operating rate of battery enterprises has rebounded to 71.68%. After the Lantern Festival, the lead - acid battery market has entered a comprehensive recovery state. Most production enterprises have basically resumed production, and as the number of workers on the job increases, the output has gradually increased, driving the weekly operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises to rise significantly. Currently, the terminal consumption of electric bicycles and automobile battery markets is average. The inventory of dealers is relatively high, and the finished - product inventory of battery factories is digested slowly, with relatively large inventory pressure. Downstream enterprises have weak purchasing intentions, only maintaining long - term order pick - up or replenishing inventory as needed, and there is no concentrated stockpiling market [4] 3.4 Fundamental Changes - Spot - As of the week of March 6, the domestic lead spot basis was slightly at a discount, and the weekend lead spot basis was at a discount of 5 yuan. The LME lead spot remained at a deep discount, with a weekend discount of - 42.91 US dollars [4] 3.5 Fundamental Changes - Inventory - As of the week of March 6, the weekly LME lead inventory decreased by 200 tons to 285,900 tons. The LME inventory fluctuated at a high level and was at an absolute high in the past five years. The weekly inventory of lead on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 2,162 tons to 66,800 tons. As of March 10, the domestic lead ingot social inventory was 73,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.12%, and it has increased for two consecutive periods, reaching an absolute high level in the past four years [4]