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消费成色不足,铅价偏弱运行
铅周报 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号:F0307990 投资咨询号:Z0011692 2025 年 8 月 25 日 消费成色不足 铅价偏弱运行 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号:F0297587 投资咨询号:Z0011509 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号:F03099478 投资咨询号:Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号:F3084165 投资咨询号:Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kxj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格 号:F03112296 投资咨询号:Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/7 一、 要点 要点 上周沪铅主力期价承压。宏观面看,美国经济数据修 复且市场担忧通胀抬头,叠加美联储官员打压降息预 期,美元企稳反弹,拖累铅价走势。但杰克逊霍尔央 行年会鲍威尔偏鸽讲话修复降息预期,铅价获得提振。 要点 基本面看,铅精矿供应偏紧的格局未有改善,河南、 湖南等地电解铅炼厂原料库存保 ...
中国中冶(601618):铜、镍等矿产储量持续增加 受益旺季和降息涨价弹性大
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-08-23 10:35
瑞木镍钴矿镍储量增至184.2 万吨、钴储量增至20.9 万吨,杜达铅锌矿预计25 年铅锌储量翻倍增长。(1) 巴布亚新几内亚瑞木镍钴矿2024 年底受益于探矿权范围内的勘探找矿成果,项目估算保有镍资源量进 一步增至184.2 万吨、钴资源量增至20.9 万吨。2024 年累计生产氢氧化镍钴含镍28669 吨、含钴2625 吨,销售氢氧化镍钴含镍30523 吨、含钴2793吨,实现营业收入29.7 亿元、归属中方利润总额4.6 亿 元,利润总额占比5.0%。(2)LME 镍8 月15 日收盘价15195 美元/吨,同比下降6.9%。 投资要点: 维持增持。维持预 测2025-2026年EPS0.34/0.36元增5%/4%,预测2027年EPS0.37 元增4%,给于2025 年 12.9 倍PE,目标价4.4 元。 阿富汗艾娜克铜矿预计2025 底实现实质性推动,巴基斯坦锡亚迪克铜矿有望年内启动矿建。(1)2024 年 阿富汗艾娜克铜矿项目开展西矿区Ⅱ期补充勘探,将西矿区资源提高到勘探级别,增加128 万吨铜资源 量,使得该项目整体资源量增长到1236 万吨。(2)2025 年8 月2 日,艾娜克铜矿项目进 ...
万国黄金集团(03939):金岭矿释放业绩弹性,新1000万吨/年项目启动
Guoxin Securities· 2025-08-21 03:13
Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Outperform" rating for the company [3][5][34]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of approximately 1.24 billion RMB in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 33.7%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was about 601 million RMB, up 136.3% year-on-year [1][9]. - The company is set to launch a new project with a capacity of 10 million tons per year at the Gold Ridge Mine, which is expected to significantly boost gold production [2][25]. - The report forecasts revenues for 2025-2027 to be 3.404 billion, 4.832 billion, and 5.546 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of 81.5%, 41.9%, and 14.8% respectively [3][34]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported a gross profit of approximately 868 million RMB, with a gross margin of about 70% and a net profit margin of 53.6% [9]. - The unit sales cost for copper equivalent from the Yifeng Xinzhang Mine was approximately 31,700 RMB per ton, nearly unchanged year-on-year, while the unit sales cost for gold from the Gold Ridge Mine was about 178.77 RMB per gram, down 16.11% year-on-year, indicating significant cost optimization [12][1]. Production Capacity and Projects - The Yifeng Xinzhang Mine currently has an annual processing capacity exceeding 1 million tons, with a copper equivalent annual production capacity of about 10,000 tons and a remaining mine life of over 20 years [2][20]. - The Gold Ridge Mine, which began production in November 2022, achieved gold metal sales of approximately 1,337 tons in the first half of 2025, a 29.7% increase year-on-year, driven by improved processing volume and recovery rates [2][10]. Valuation and Market Potential - The report sets a valuation target for the company at 28-30 times earnings for 2025, translating to a stock value between 41.03 and 43.96 HKD, indicating a potential upside of approximately 17%-25% from the current stock price of 35.00 HKD [3][34]. - The projected diluted EPS for 2025-2027 is 1.34, 1.91, and 2.19 RMB, with corresponding PE ratios of 24, 17, and 15 [3][34].
供需僵持,铅价区间整理
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-08-19 03:34
有色金属周报(铅) 供需僵持,铅价区间整理 2025年8月19日 宏源期货研究所 祁玉蓉 从业资格号:F03100031 投资咨询从业证书号:Z0021060 TEL:010-8229 5006 摘要 | | 主要逻辑 | 本周观点 | 上周观点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | |  | 原料-铅精矿:持续偏紧。当前国产矿报价相对稳定,但 | | | | | 富含金银的铅精矿及高银含量的银铅矿TC仍有下行压力; | | | | | 进口矿方面,TC再度下调,部分供应商TC报价在-100至 | | | | | 80美元/干吨,但实际成交价多集中在-60至-70美元/干吨 | | | | | 附近,炼厂采购更加倾向国产矿。 | | | |  | 原料-废电瓶:由于终端消费不佳,废电瓶回收量有限, | 原生铅开工逐步回升,再生铅供给 | | | | 废电瓶价格略有松动,但依旧坚挺。 | | | |  | 供给端:前期检修的原生铅炼厂有所恢复,开工回升;再 | 因环保、亏损等因素,开工偏弱, | | | | 生铅方面,受成本倒挂及原料限制因素影响,开工偏弱。 | 需求端传统旺季尚未兑现, ...
铅周报:供需两弱,铅价维持区间震荡-20250819
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-08-19 01:13
1. Report Title and Analyst Information - Report Title: Lead Weekly Report: Weak Supply and Demand, Lead Prices Maintain Range-bound Fluctuations [1] - Analyst: Chen Hansong - Futures Practitioner Certificate Number: F03129697 - Investment Consulting Certificate Number: Z0020351 2. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 3. Core Viewpoints - The lead market is currently in a state of weak supply and demand, with lead prices maintaining range-bound fluctuations. The consumption has not improved significantly, and the peak season performance is below expectations. Downstream enterprises only maintain rigid procurement, and the destocking of domestic social inventories is slow. However, the current domestic secondary lead smelters are all in a loss state, and the cost still provides some support for lead prices [4]. - Trading strategies include attempting high selling and low buying within the range for single-side trading, and temporarily observing for arbitrage and options trading [4]. 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Chapter 1: Market and Logic 4.1.1 Trading Logic and Strategy - **Supply Side**: This week, the supply and demand of lead concentrates remained in a tight balance. The processing fee for domestic lead concentrates remained at 500 yuan/metal ton, and the weekly processing fee for imported lead concentrates decreased by 20 US dollars/dry ton to -80 US dollars/dry ton. The scrap battery market's scrap volume changed little, and smelting enterprises purchased on demand. The prices of lead-containing waste materials changed little compared to the previous period [4]. - **Smelting End**: The average operating rate of SMM's three-province primary lead smelters increased by 0.66% to 68.07% compared to last week. The SMM's four-province weekly operating rate of secondary lead was 40.97%, a decrease of 0.14% from last week. The operating conditions of secondary lead smelting enterprises were relatively stable compared to last week, and the production of some enterprises fluctuated slightly with the arrival of raw materials, resulting in a slight decline in the regional operating rate [4]. - **Consumption End**: The weekly comprehensive operating rate of SMM's five-province lead battery enterprises was 67.3%, an increase of 2.05% from last week. The operating rate of lead battery enterprises recovered this week because some enterprises that took high-temperature vacations last week resumed normal production, but some enterprises continued to take vacations, with a maximum vacation duration of 10 days. Therefore, the operating rate has not returned to the level of late July. Next week, as other enterprises' high-temperature vacations end, the weekly operating rate will continue to rise [4]. - **Inventory Data**: As of August 14, the total social inventory of SMM lead ingots in five regions reached 71,700 tons, an increase of 1,700 tons from August 11 and an increase of 600 tons from August 7. The LME inventory on August 14 decreased by 4,700 tons to 261,100 tons compared to August 8 [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Single-side trading can attempt high selling and low buying within the range; temporarily observe for arbitrage and options trading [4]. 4.1.2 - 4.1.5 - The content mainly lists relevant data such as futures prices, price spreads, inventory data, and lead industry chain inventories, but specific data analysis is not provided in the given text [5][8][11][15] 4.2 Chapter 2: Raw Material End 4.2.1 - 4.2.2 Raw Material Supply - Primary - Lists data related to global and domestic lead ore production, lead concentrate imports, and domestic lead concentrate total supply and mine operating rates, but specific data analysis is not provided [21][25] 4.2.3 Raw Material Supply - Secondary - Mentions the prices of lead-containing waste materials and waste batteries, as well as the raw material inventory of secondary lead smelters, but specific data analysis is not provided [32] 4.3 Chapter 3: Smelting End 4.3.1 Global Refined Lead - Lists data on global refined lead balance, production, and demand, but specific data analysis is not provided [39] 4.3.2 Domestic Refined Lead Import and Export - Lists data on import and export profits and losses, import and export volumes, and net export volumes, but specific data analysis is not provided [46] 4.3.3 Primary Lead Smelting Enterprise Profits - Lists data on lead concentrate processing fees, smelting profits, sulfuric acid benefits, and silver benefits, but specific data analysis is not provided [48] 4.3.4 Primary Lead Supply - Lists data on the operating rate and production of primary lead smelting enterprises, as well as the production of electrolytic lead's main delivery brands, but specific data analysis is not provided [56] 4.3.5 - 4.3.6 Secondary Lead Supply - Lists data on the cost, profit, operating rate, and production of secondary lead enterprises, but specific data analysis is not provided [59][68] 4.3.7 Domestic Lead Ingot Supply - Lists data on domestic lead ingot total supply, primary lead production, secondary lead production, and refined lead net export, but specific data analysis is not provided [72] 4.4 Chapter 4: Demand End 4.4.1 Lead Batteries - Lists data on the operating rate of lead battery enterprises, dealers' finished product inventory, export and import volumes, and enterprises' finished product inventory, but specific data analysis is not provided [79] 4.4.2 Lead Alloys and Their Plates - Lists data on lead alloy prices, import and export of lead alloys and lead plates, but specific data analysis is not provided [82] 4.4.3 - 4.4.4 Automobiles, Motorcycles, Electricity, and Communications - Lists data on automobile production, export, production structure, motorcycle production, communication construction volume, and power engineering, but specific data analysis is not provided [85][88]
万国黄金集团(03939.HK)中期公司拥有人应占溢利增加约136.3%至6亿元
Ge Long Hui· 2025-08-15 14:37
Core Viewpoint - The announcement highlights a significant increase in both revenue and profit for the company, driven primarily by increased sales from its mining operations [1] Financial Performance - Revenue for the six months ending June 30, 2025, increased by approximately 33.7% to around RMB 1.24 billion [1] - Profit attributable to owners rose by approximately 136.3% to around RMB 600 million [1] - Basic earnings per share were approximately RMB 0.554, compared to RMB 0.307 for the six months ending June 30, 2024 [1] - The board declared an interim dividend of HKD 0.203, up from HKD 0.120 for the previous period [1] Operational Highlights - The overall revenue increase is primarily attributed to higher sales from the Jinling Mine [1] - The company fully owns Yifeng Wanguo Mining Co., Ltd., which holds the rights to the Xinzhuang Copper-Lead-Zinc Mine located in Jiangxi Province, China [1] - The Xinzhuang Mine contains substantial resources of non-ferrous polymetallic minerals [1] - The company's product offerings include copper concentrate, iron concentrate, zinc concentrate, sulfur concentrate, lead concentrate, and by-products of gold and silver [1]
铅锌日评:区间整理-20250814
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-08-14 01:21
Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - For the lead market, supply and demand are both increasing with no obvious contradictions. Tight raw materials and peak - season expectations support lead prices, and short - term lead prices are expected to move in a range [1]. - For the zinc market, macro "anti - involution" sentiment fluctuates. Fundamentally, both zinc ore and zinc ingot supplies are increasing, demand is in the off - season, inventories are accumulating, and the continuous decline of LME zinc inventories overseas provides some support. Short - term zinc prices are expected to move in a range [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Lead Market Price and Market Indicators - SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,750 yuan/ton, down 0.15% [1]. - Futures main contract closing price was 16,930 yuan/ton, up 0.09% [1]. - Shanghai lead basis was - 180 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [1]. - LME3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic trading) was 1,988 dollars/ton, down 1.39% [1]. - Shanghai - London lead price ratio was 8.52, up 1.50% [1]. Supply - related Information - The "Limit Specification for Harmful Elements in Heavy Non - ferrous Metal Concentrate Products" will be implemented on September 1, 2025, mainly restricting the entry of imported lead concentrates with excessive harmful elements, but currently having no obvious impact on supply [1]. - Some lead smelting enterprises in Henan may face vehicle transportation restrictions during August 26 - September 3 due to environmental protection emergency control [1]. - South American mining company Nexa Resources' Cerro Pasco complex partially shut down temporarily, but it has not had a substantial impact on production [1]. Market Fundamentals - Lead concentrate imports have no expected increase, processing fees are likely to rise, but it has not affected smelter operations significantly. Primary lead production is stable with a slight increase [1]. - For recycled lead, waste lead - acid battery prices are likely to rise, raw materials are in short supply, some smelters cut or stop production, and the overall production is at a relatively low level [1]. Demand - side Situation - Some battery enterprises' operations declined last week due to high temperatures and poor demand, and downstream purchasing was cautious after the lead price rebounded [1]. Zinc Market Price and Market Indicators - SMM1 zinc ingot average price was 22,490 yuan/ton, up 0.27% [1]. - Futures main contract closing price was 22,600 yuan/ton, down 0.13% [1]. - Shanghai zinc basis was - 110 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan [1]. - LME3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic trading) was 2,811.5 dollars/ton, down 1.28% [1]. - Shanghai - London zinc price ratio was 8.04, up 1.16% [1]. Supply - related Information - Zinc smelters have sufficient raw material stocks, zinc concentrate processing fees are rising, and production is expected to increase [1]. Market Fundamentals - The cost - side support for zinc is weakening, smelter profits and production enthusiasm are improving, and the output is increasing significantly [1]. Demand - side Situation - Downstream zinc buyers purchased more when the price was low last week, and the restocking sentiment weakened after the price rebounded [1].
西藏珠峰股价报11.97元 盘中一度快速反弹2%
Jin Rong Jie· 2025-08-12 15:35
8月12日主力资金净流出2721.98万元,近五个交易日累计净流出1.93亿元。当日成交量为42.29万手,成 交金额5.03亿元。 风险提示:本文所提及个股仅作客观陈述,不构成投资建议。市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 西藏珠峰8月12日股价收报11.97元,较前一交易日下跌0.75%。盘中10时20分出现快速反弹,5分钟内涨 幅超过2%,最高触及12.17元,成交额达2.6亿元。 该公司主营业务为有色金属矿产品采选及销售,主要产品包括铅精矿、锌精矿等。西藏珠峰是西藏地区 重要的矿产资源开发企业,拥有多个矿山资源。 ...
有色金属周报(铅):暂无突出矛盾,铅价区间整理为主-20250812
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-08-12 06:44
Report Basic Information - Report Title: Non-ferrous Metals Weekly (Lead) - No prominent contradictions, lead prices mainly range-bound [1] - Report Date: August 12, 2025 [2] - Research Institute: Hongyuan Futures Research Institute [2] - Analyst: Qi Yurong [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - The supply of lead concentrates remains tight, and the TC of lead concentrates rich in gold and silver and silver-lead ore with high silver content still has downward pressure; the price of scrap batteries is slightly loose but still firm [3] - The production of primary lead smelters that had undergone maintenance earlier has recovered, and the operating rate has increased; in the secondary lead sector, affected by sewage inspections in Anhui and tight raw materials, the operating rate of some smelters has declined, and the supply has tightened regionally [3] - The demand side is cautious in purchasing. Terminal consumption is average, and electric bicycle dealers stocked up a lot in July, so they are currently consuming inventory. The price increase atmosphere in the wholesale market has faded [3] - The price of secondary lead is inverted with that of electrolytic lead, and downstream buyers prefer electrolytic lead with high cost performance. As the production of electrolytic lead recovers, factory inventories accumulate while social inventories decline. Considering the transfer of futures deliveries, social inventories may accumulate again later [3] - It is expected that the lead price will maintain a range-bound trend in the short term, with the operating range referring to 16,500 - 17,500 yuan/ton [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - SMM1 lead ingot average price increased by 1.06% to 16,725 yuan/ton; Shanghai lead main contract closing price increased by 0.66% to 16,845 yuan/ton; LME lead closing price (electronic board) increased by 1.49% to 2,003.5 US dollars/ton [14] 3.2 Raw Material Situation - The processing fee of domestic lead concentrates remained flat at 500 yuan/metal ton, and the processing fee of imported lead concentrates decreased by 5 US dollars/dry ton to -65 US dollars/dry ton. The expectation of tight ore remains unchanged, and the TC quotation is stable with a weak trend [30] - As of August 8, the average price of scrap batteries was 10,175 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton from the previous period. The market circulation of scrap batteries is limited, and the quotation is relatively firm [46] 3.3 Supply Side - The operating rate of primary lead smelters increased by 3.3 percentage points to 67.4%. The weekly output of primary lead smelters that can be delivered for settlement was 52,775 tons in the week of August 8, an increase of 4,100 tons compared to the week of August 1 [31][36] - The operating rate of secondary lead smelters decreased by 3.3 percentage points to 41.1%. As of last Friday, the weekly output of secondary lead was 46,600 tons, a decrease from the previous week [56] 3.4 Demand Side - The operating rate of lead-acid battery manufacturers decreased by 6.61 percentage points to 65.25%. High-temperature holidays in battery enterprises in Hebei, Zhejiang and other regions led to a significant decline in overall production [64] 3.5 Import and Export - As of August 1, the export loss of refined lead was about 2,400 yuan/ton; as of August 8, the import profit was -694.14 yuan/ton, and the import profit window was closed [77] 3.6 Inventory - As of August 7, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five locations was 71,100 tons, a decrease in inventory. Due to downstream buyers' caution and the transfer of lead ingots before delivery, social inventories decreased slightly while factory inventories accumulated [88] - As of August 8, SHFE refined lead inventory was 62,300 tons, a decrease from the previous period; LME inventory was 265,800 tons, also a decrease [91]
铅:供应支撑底部等待消费驱动
Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for lead is "Oscillating Bullish" [3] Core Viewpoints - Overall, the losses of primary and secondary lead enterprises have widened, but there have been few production cuts or restarts, resulting in little marginal change in supply. On the demand side, the peak season is not obvious, dealers' inventories are high, and inventory reduction is poor. The recent marginal variable comes from the sewage inspection in Anhui, where individual secondary smelters have slightly reduced production. The overall production of primary and secondary smelters is normal, and there is no significant change in supply increment. The rigid cost of concentrates and waste batteries supports the bottom of the lead price, and the lead price is mainly in a strong oscillation, with weak monthly spread/ratio drivers [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Company Production and News - Pan American Silver Corp's zinc concentrate production in Q2 2025 was 12,600 tons, a year-on-year increase of 25%, and lead concentrate production was 6,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 22% [6]. - GatosSilver's zinc metal production in Q2 2025 was about 7,300 tons, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 29%. Its 2025 zinc production guidance was raised to 52 - 56 million pounds [6]. - Nyrstar received 135 million Australian dollars in support from the Australian government to promote the reconstruction of smelters and the development of key metals [6]. 2. Lead Concentrate Processing Fees - The national average price of lead concentrate processing fees this week was 435 yuan/metal ton, a month-on-month decrease of 55 yuan/ton [3][8]. 3. Lead Concentrate Imports - In June 2025, the import volume of lead ore and its concentrates was about 118,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 13.54% and a year-on-year increase of 26.90% [9]. - As of August 1, the port inventory was 17,700 tons, with a slight increase. The tender price of imported lead ore was inverted by over 100 US dollars, and smelters had poor acceptance [13]. 4. Futures Prices - Last week, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,850 yuan/ton, with a high of 17,010 yuan/ton, a low of 16,820 yuan/ton, and closed at 16,955 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 0.8%. Structurally, Shanghai lead maintained a C structure with small monthly spread contradictions [15]. - Last week, London lead opened at 2,010 US dollars/ton, with a high of 2,042 US dollars/ton, a low of 1,994 US dollars/ton, and closed at 2,040 US dollars/ton, a weekly increase of 1.42%. Structurally, the outer market maintained a Contango structure, and the LME lead 0 - 3 spread strengthened, operating around -20 US dollars/ton [18]. 5. Industry Profits - The profit of the primary lead industry was a loss of 800 yuan/ton, with the loss widening month-on-month. There were both production cuts and restarts in primary lead, and after offsetting, production was expected to maintain an increase [25]. - The profit of the secondary lead industry was a loss of 1,000 yuan/ton, with the loss widening month-on-month. Some smelters in Anhui and Hebei planned to end maintenance, and secondary lead supply would increase slightly [27]. 6. Waste Battery Supply - This week, the tax-excluded price of waste electric batteries in most regions was maintained at 9,900 - 9,950 yuan/ton. The market found it difficult to purchase at this price, and the overall price of waste batteries was slightly weak [30]. 7. Inventories - As of August 6, the LME lead ingot inventory was 269,400 tons, unchanged month-on-month [34]. - As of August 1, the SHFE lead inventory was 63,300 tons, unchanged month-on-month [35]. - As of Thursday this week, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five regions was 71,100 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1,800 tons [38]. 8. Lead-Zinc Ratio - As of Thursday this week, the domestic lead-zinc ratio was 0.75, and the foreign lead-zinc ratio was 0.71 [40].