中信建投研报指出，创新构建全社会ROIC与长期利率的分析框架，数据显示全社会ROIC与长期利率存 在2：1关系，这一锚定关系并非空中楼阁，也具有市场套利支撑，是具有全球普适性的长期利率中枢分 析框架。研报指出，全社会ROIC建模测算使用"行业加权法"计算全社会ROIC。可根据上市公司财务数 据计算每个行业ROIC，考虑到我国上市公司行业结构与宏观经济行业结构不一致，因此我们根据统计 局月度公布的固投数据估算各行业资本规模，以此确认各行业权重，最后加权得到全社会ROIC。研报 表示，"十五五"时期我国资本回报水平有望筑底上行，从而牵引长期利率中枢上移。展望未来，即 便"十五五"时期我国实际经济增速继续下台阶是大势所趋，但我国资本回报水平反而会筑底上行，从而 牵引长期利率中枢上移，具体源于制造业与房地产的共同驱动。 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the impact of the "anti-involution" policy on the bond market and the overall economic environment in China, particularly focusing on the corporate sector's profitability and the relationship between stock and bond markets [1][2][4][6]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Anti-Involution Policy**: Aimed at curbing low-price competition and enhancing product quality, this policy seeks to improve corporate profit margins from the current 19.5% to a historical average of 22% [1][8][9]. - **Profitability Pressure**: Chinese corporate profitability is under significant pressure, with the profit-to-revenue ratio at a historical low. The policy's effectiveness in improving profitability is contingent on demand-side support [1][8]. - **PPI and Profit Margins**: The Producer Price Index (PPI) is crucial for improving industrial profit margins. A PPI increase to 2% is necessary for a 10% profit margin recovery, but achieving this is challenging given the current PPI of -3% [1][12][13]. - **Long-term Interest Rates**: The anti-involution measures are expected to gradually raise the long-term interest rate central tendency by 15-20 basis points, but this will take time to materialize [14][15]. Market Dynamics - **Bond Market Challenges**: The bond market faces headwinds from rising commodity prices and a strong stock market, with a notable "stock-bond seesaw" effect where a 1% increase in stocks corresponds to a 0.045% decrease in bond futures [2][3][5][17]. - **Investment Strategies**: Current strategies should focus on monitoring policy implementation and adjusting to short-term market fluctuations, with expected yield impacts in the range of 10-20 basis points [15][25]. Additional Important Insights - **Sector-Specific Issues**: The anti-involution policy aims to address issues in sectors with excessive competition, such as coal and steel, where profit margins are severely impacted by price wars and demand shrinkage [4][7]. - **International Comparison**: Compared to countries like the US and Japan, which maintain a profit-to-GDP ratio around 25%, China's current ratio indicates a need for structural reforms to enhance profitability [8][9]. - **Market Sentiment and Risk**: The relationship between stock and bond markets is influenced by investor sentiment, with significant volatility observed during periods of rapid market changes [20][21][22][23]. This summary encapsulates the critical points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the implications of the anti-involution policy on corporate profitability, market dynamics, and investment strategies.