Export Performance - In May 2025, China's exports increased by 4.8% year-on-year, down from 8.1% in April[2] - Exports to the US saw a significant decline, with growth dropping from -21% in April to -35% in May[21] - The indirect export support from countries like Vietnam, which saw a 20.7% increase in exports, indicates ongoing indirect export activities despite global trade demand contraction[3] Import Trends - Imports in May 2025 decreased by 3.4% year-on-year, a drop of 3.2 percentage points from the previous month[31] - The decline in imports is attributed to base effect changes and may remain low due to cyclical and tariff-related factors[31] Future Outlook - The probability of accelerated export decline is increasing due to the cyclical downturn in global trade demand and the diminishing effects of previous indirect exports[7] - High-frequency data suggests that June exports may drop by approximately 8% year-on-year based on early June figures[7]