一方面，参考历史经验，阅兵等事件将对军工行情构成重要催化。阅兵作为展示国家军事实力的重要时 刻，是推动军工板块上涨的重要催化剂。回顾2015年9月3日的世界反法西斯战争胜利70周年大阅兵，7 月9日起军工板块行情就开始反映阅兵事件的预期，至8月17日区间收益为78%，相对全A超额收益 45%。未来一段时间，军工板块或处于事件催化的上涨预期之中。另一方面，即将召开的"五年规划"会 议也有望对军工板块行情构成较大提振。回顾2000年以来五次五中全会召开前20个交易日各一级行业表 现，军工板块作为与国家战略部署密切相关的行业，无论是胜率还是涨幅中位数均在各一级行业排名第 一。因此，10月即将召开的四中全会也对于军工板块做多情绪有所支撑。 同时，对内"五年计划"交界节点叠加对外全球竞争力提升，军工行业新一轮订单释放的预期正在增强， 是本轮军工基本面持续改善的长期逻辑支撑：对内，军工作为强计划性行业，五年规划对于行业景气和 市场预期有着重要影响。参考历史经验，从五年规划启动编制，到正式落地的第一年，军工行业的超额 收益通常较为明显。今年作为"十四五"收官之年，同时是"十五五"筹备之年，随着军队建设"十四五"规 划执行已 ...

Market Performance - On July 1, the major stock indices in Shanghai and Shenzhen opened mixed, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly higher and the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index also opening with minor gains. The Shanghai Composite Index showed a fluctuating upward trend throughout the day, closing at 3457.75 points, up 0.39%, marking a new year-to-date closing high [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10476.29 points, up 0.11%, while the ChiNext Index closed at 2147.92 points, down 0.24%. The total trading volume for the Shanghai market was approximately 553.6 billion yuan, and for the Shenzhen market, it was about 912.5 billion yuan [1] Sector Performance - The pharmaceutical sector led the gains, with significant increases in various sub-sectors such as immunotherapy, innovative drugs, recombinant proteins, generic drugs, weight loss drugs, hepatitis concepts, and hair medical treatments. Other sectors that saw notable increases included shipbuilding, industrial gases, photolithography machines, banking, and superconducting concepts [1] - Conversely, digital currency stocks experienced significant declines, along with substantial adjustments in sectors like electronic identification, cross-border payments, and Web3 concepts [1] Institutional Insights - According to institutional views, the market is expected to experience fluctuations, with a historical 60% probability of the Shanghai Composite Index rising in July. Investors are advised to focus on defensive sectors in the early part of the month and shift attention to mid-year performance reports and policy movements later on. Key sectors to watch include technology (semiconductors, AI), military industry, and high-growth areas in mid-year reports [2] - Another institution emphasized the importance of focusing on performance-driven sectors and stable assets as the earnings season approaches, with expected growth in industries such as steel, computers, and defense [2] Policy Developments - The National Healthcare Security Administration announced that a draft for the commercial insurance innovative drug directory and the medical insurance directory will be released soon. This initiative aims to streamline the application process for companies and ensure that both directories are aligned in their adjustments [4] - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission is accelerating the development of the new energy vehicle industry, focusing on enhancing the capabilities of young talents in intelligent development and digital marketing [5]