1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of February 5, 2026, provincial - level two sessions have been held. The average GDP growth target of 31 provinces in 2026 is 5.12%, a slight decrease of 0.24 percentage points from 2025. Most provinces set their GDP growth targets in the range of 5% - 5.5% [1][11]. - The key tasks of local governments in 2026 focus on expanding domestic demand and accelerating the development of new - quality productivity, including tapping effective demand potential, strengthening scientific and technological innovation, and building a modern industrial system. Debt - alleviation key provinces also focus on these areas while making differentiated arrangements based on provincial conditions [1][16][18]. - In terms of finance, some provinces have lowered their general public budget revenue growth targets, with the average target growth rate dropping from 3.3% to 2.5%. Local governments will continue to resolve local debt risks, and the transformation and exit tasks of financing platforms will be further strengthened [2][21]. - Looking ahead, the 10Y Treasury bond has fallen to the resistance level around 1.8%, and the bond market may remain volatile in the short term. Attention should be paid to the inflation data in January and the possible disturbances caused by re - inflation expectations [2][27]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Review and Outlook of the Bond Market - This week, the precious metal market fluctuated, and the central bank maintained cross - festival liquidity. The bond market oscillated, with the ultra - long - end leading the rise. The yields of 10Y and 30Y Treasury bonds decreased by 0.1bp and 4bp respectively [10]. - The GDP growth targets of most provinces in 2026 have been adjusted. 21 provinces lowered their targets, and only Jiangxi raised its target. The average growth target decreased slightly compared to 2025 [11][14]. - The key tasks of economic powerhouse provinces and debt - alleviation key provinces in 2026 mainly include expanding domestic demand, strengthening innovation, and promoting industrial development, with some provinces also emphasizing reform and regional construction [16][18]. - In terms of finance, some provinces have lowered their revenue growth targets, and local governments will continue to resolve debt risks and strengthen the transformation of financing platforms [21][24]. 3.2 Bond Market Review 3.2.1 Capital Situation - This week, the central bank conducted a net withdrawal of 7560 billion yuan in the open market. From February 2 to 6, the central bank injected 10055 billion yuan, and reverse repurchases worth 17615 billion yuan matured. Next week, 1500 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed deposits will be issued, and reverse repurchases worth 4055 billion yuan will mature [28]. - Capital interest rates declined. From February 2 to 6, R007 and DR007 dropped by 11bp and 13bp respectively compared to January 30. The 3M certificate of deposit issuance rate first decreased and then increased, and the FR007 - 1Y swap rate declined after narrow - range fluctuations [31]. 3.2.2 Secondary Market Trends - This week, bond yields oscillated within a range and then declined. Except for the 1Y Treasury bond, the yields of other key - term Treasury bonds decreased. Except for the 7Y - 5Y, 10Y - 7Y, and 50Y - 30Y Treasury bond term spreads, other key - term spreads narrowed [38][40]. 3.2.3 Bond Market Sentiment - This week, the weekly turnover rate of 30Y Treasury bonds slightly decreased to 39%. As of February 6, the 50Y - 30Y Treasury bond spread widened by 0.7bp compared to January 30, and the 30Y - 10Y spread narrowed by 3.7bp to 44bp. The inter - bank leverage ratio rose to 108.0%, and the exchange leverage ratio slightly decreased to 122.9%. The median duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds increased by 0.01 years to 2.61 years, and the implied tax rate of 10 - year CDB bonds narrowed [45]. 3.2.4 Bond Supply - This week, the net financing of interest - rate bonds increased. From February 2 to 6, the net financing of interest - rate bonds was 8834 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 4229 billion yuan. The net financing of Treasury bonds and local government bonds increased, while that of policy - financial bonds decreased [60]. - The issuance scale of Treasury bonds increased this week. A total of 6 Treasury bonds were issued from February 2 to 6, with a total issuance scale of 3970 billion yuan. Next week, the 7Y Treasury bond 250025.IB will be re - issued, with an issuance scale of 1300 billion yuan [63][64]. - The issuance scale of local bonds will decrease next week. This week, 90 local government bonds were issued, with a total issuance scale of 5797 billion yuan. Next week, the planned issuance scale of local government bonds is 3221 billion yuan, a decrease of 2575 billion yuan compared to this week [64]. - This week, inter - bank certificates of deposit changed from net repayment to net financing, and the average issuance rate remained flat. The total issuance of inter - bank certificates of deposit from February 2 to 6 was 5066 billion yuan, and the net financing was 3751 billion yuan [65]. 3.3 Economic Data - Since February, port throughput has been strong, while industrial production has shown a marginal weakening trend. In the real estate sector, new - home sales decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year, and second - hand home sales in 13 cities decreased less month - on - month and increased more year - on - year. In the consumption sector, movie consumption decreased month - on - month and was weaker than the seasonal level year - on - year, subway travel was basically in line with the seasonal level, and flight travel was slightly weaker than the seasonal level. In the export sector, port throughput increased month - on - month and year - on - year, while the CCFI and SCFI indices decreased [69]. - Industrial production showed a marginal weakening trend. The PTA operating rate increased month - on - month, while other operating rate indicators decreased month - on - month. In terms of infrastructure and price high - frequency data, production indicators decreased month - on - month, and the prices of asphalt, crude oil, and non - ferrous metals turned down [69][73]. 3.4 Overseas Bond Market - The US non - farm payrolls report was postponed. Due to the "technical shutdown" of the US federal government, the release time of multiple economic data reports by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics was adjusted. The original January non - farm payrolls report scheduled for February 6 was rescheduled to February 11, and the January CPI report was adjusted to 8:30 am on February 13, Eastern Time [78]. - Fed's Daly warned of the vulnerability of the labor market and said that one or two more interest rate cuts might be needed. In the overseas bond market, US bonds rose, while emerging markets mostly declined. The 2Y and 10Y US Treasury bond yields decreased by 2bp and 4bp respectively, and the 10Y - 2Y spread narrowed from 74bp on January 30 to 72bp [78][79]. 3.5 Performance of Major Asset Classes - The CSI 300 index adjusted this week. As of February 6, 2026, it closed at 4643.6 points, a decrease of 1.33% compared to January 30. The US dollar index rose slightly this week, and both Shanghai gold and Shanghai copper significantly adjusted. The performance of major asset classes this week was: US dollar > convertible bonds > Chinese - funded US dollar bonds > Chinese bonds > live pigs > crude oil > CSI 300 > rebar > CSI 1000 > Shanghai copper > Shanghai gold [84]. 3.6 Next Week's Bond Market Calendar - In terms of liquidity, there will be reverse repurchase maturities and the issuance of treasury cash fixed deposits. In terms of government bond supply, there will be the issuance of Treasury bonds and local government bonds. In terms of fundamental data, there will be the release of economic data from China, the US, and other countries, as well as reports from EIA, OPEC, and IEA [88].