Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The prices of edible oils are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic edible oil supply is stable. Affected by Argentina's tariff policy, the supply of beans and oils has increased, leading to an overall correction in oilseeds. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, demand has improved, Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil supports increased biodiesel consumption. The imposition of tariffs on Canadian rapeseed in China has led to a rise in the rapeseed sector. The domestic edible oil fundamentals are neutral, and the import inventory is stable. The easing of Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations affects the market at the macro level. [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Views Soybean Oil - Fundamental: The MPOB report shows that Malaysia's palm oil production in August decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month-on-month to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% month-on-month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with production cuts falling short of expectations. Currently, shipping survey agencies show that Malaysia's palm oil export data this month has increased by 4% month-on-month, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season. [2] - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,250, with a basis of 110, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price. [2] - Inventory: On August 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from the previous period and a year-on-year increase of 11.7%. [2] - Market: The futures price is running below the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is downward. [2] - Main Position: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased. [2] - Expectation: The price of soybean oil Y2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,000 - 8,400. [2] Palm Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season. [3] - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 9,150, with a basis of -78, indicating that the spot price is lower than the futures price. [3] - Inventory: On August 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period and a year-on-year decrease of 34.1%. [3] - Market: The futures price is running below the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is downward. [3] - Main Position: The short positions of the main palm oil contract have decreased. [3] - Expectation: The price of palm oil P2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,100 - 9,500. [3] Rapeseed Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season. [4] - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10,200, with a basis of 156, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price. [4] - Inventory: On August 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period and a year-on-year increase of 3.2%. [4] - Market: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. [4] - Main Position: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have increased. [4] - Expectation: The price of rapeseed oil OI2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,900 - 10,300. [4] Recent利多利空Analysis -利多: The US soybean stocks-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. [5] -利空: Edible oil prices are at a relatively high historical level, and domestic edible oil inventories are continuously increasing. The macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related edible oils is high. [5] - Main Logic: The global edible oil fundamentals are relatively loose. [5] Supply - The report mentions the inventory of soybean oil [6], palm oil [17], rapeseed oil [19], and domestic total edible oil [23], as well as the inventory of soybeans [10], rapeseeds [21], and the inventory of soybean meal [8] Demand - The report mentions the apparent consumption of soybean oil [12] and soybean meal [14]