1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Neutral" [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils and fats are oscillating and falling due to the recent significant fluctuations in crude oil prices, which put pressure on the three major vegetable oils. However, from a fundamental perspective, the further implementation of biodiesel in Southeast Asia in the future, combined with the later shift in El Niño weather, will strongly support palm oil prices [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The closing price of the palm oil 2605 contract was 9866.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 64 yuan and a range of - 0.64%; the closing price of the soybean oil 2605 contract was 8668.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 46.00 yuan and a range of - 0.53%; the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2605 contract was 9884.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 7.00 yuan and a range of - 0.07% [1] - Spot: In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 9830.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of + 160.00 yuan and a range of + 1.65%, and the spot basis was P05 - 36.00, with a month - on - month change of + 224.00 yuan; in the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8860.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of + 50.00 yuan/ton and a range of + 0.57%, and the spot basis was Y05 + 192.00, with a month - on - month change of + 96.00 yuan; in the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 10400.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 20.00 yuan and a range of - 0.19%, and the spot basis was OI05 + 516.00, with a month - on - month change of - 13.00 yuan [1] Market Consultation - Soybean prices: The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (April shipment) was 511 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; the C&F price of US West soybeans (April shipment) was 505 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (May shipment) was 476 dollars/ton, down 2 dollars/ton from the previous trading day [2] - Import soybean premium quotes: The premium for the Gulf of Mexico (April shipment) was 232 cents/bushel, up 2 cents/bushel from the previous trading day; the premium for the US West Coast (April shipment) was 216 cents/bushel, up 2 cents/bushel from the previous trading day; the premium for Brazilian ports (May shipment) was 139 cents/bushel, down 5 cents/bushel from the previous trading day [2] - Other oil prices: The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (April shipment) was 1299 dollars/ton, up 10 dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (June shipment) was 1216 dollars/ton, down 5 dollars/ton from the previous trading day. The C&F quote for imported rapeseed oil: the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (April shipment) was 1120 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (June shipment) was 1100 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (May shipment) was 591 dollars/ton, up 4 dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (July shipment) was 600 dollars/ton, up 4 dollars/ton from the previous trading day [2] Figures - The report includes 30 figures related to the prices, trading volumes, production, inventory, and other aspects of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, with data sources from Steel Union Data and Huatai Futures Research Institute [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall outlook for oil prices is oscillating on the stronger side. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic oil supply is stable. Sino - US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the export and price of new US soybeans. Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, and demand is improving. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The soaring international crude oil price drives up oil prices. The domestic oil fundamentals are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Views - **Soybean Oil** - Fundamental: The MPOB report shows that in December, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 5.46% month - on - month to 1.8298 million tons, exports increased by 8.55% month - on - month to 1.3165 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory increased by 7.59% month - on - month to 3.0506 million tons. The report is slightly bearish. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil in January shows a 29% month - on - month increase, and the supply pressure will decrease in the subsequent production - reduction season. It is neutral. - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8810, with a basis of 96, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is bullish. - Inventory: On January 9, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.02 million tons, down 60,000 tons from the previous 1.08 million tons, a month - on - month decrease, but a year - on - year increase of 14.7%. It is bearish. - Market: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. It is bullish. - Main position: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract are decreasing. It is bullish. - Expectation: The price of soybean oil Y2605 will oscillate in the range of 8500 - 8900 [2]. - **Palm Oil** - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is slightly bearish, but the export data in January shows an increase, and the supply pressure will decrease in the production - reduction season. It is neutral. - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 9660, with a basis of 270, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price. It is bearish. - Inventory: On January 9, the port inventory of palm oil was 736,000 tons, up 2200 tons from the previous 733,800 tons, a month - on - month increase, and a year - on - year increase of 46%. It is bearish. - Market: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. It is bullish. - Main position: The short positions of the main palm oil contract are decreasing. It is bearish. - Expectation: The price of palm oil P2605 will oscillate in the range of 9800 - 10200 [3]. - **Rapeseed Oil** - Fundamental: The MPOB report is slightly bearish, and the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease in the production - reduction season. It is neutral. - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10304, with a basis of 413, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is bullish. - Inventory: On January 9, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 250,000 tons, down 20,000 tons from the previous 270,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease, and a year - on - year decrease of 44%. It is bullish. - Market: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. It is bullish. - Main position: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract are decreasing. It is bearish. - Expectation: The price of rapeseed oil OI2605 will oscillate in the range of 9700 - 11000 [4]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **Likely to be Bullish**: The US soybean stock - to - sales ratio remains around 4%, indicating a tight supply. There is a tremor season for palm oil. - **Likely to be Bearish**: The oil prices are at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic oil inventory is continuously increasing. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils is high. - **Current Main Logic**: The global oil fundamentals are relatively loose [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The prices of edible oils are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic edible oil supply is stable. Sino-US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the price of new US soybeans. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and the demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The soaring international crude oil price drives up the oil price. The domestic edible oil fundamentals are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that in December, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 5.46% month-on-month to 1.8298 million tons, exports increased by 8.55% month-on-month to 1.3165 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory increased by 7.59% month-on-month to 3.0506 million tons. The report is slightly bearish, and the inventory data exceeded expectations. Currently, shipping survey agencies show that the export data of Malaysian palm oil in January increased by 29% month-on-month. Subsequently, it enters the production reduction season, and the supply pressure of palm oil decreases. It is neutral [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,800, and the basis is 112. The spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is bullish [2] - **Inventory**: On March 9, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.02 million tons, compared with 1.08 million tons previously, a month-on-month decrease of 60,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 14.7%. It is bearish [2] - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. It is bullish [2] - **Main Position**: The long position of the main soybean oil contract increased. It is bullish [2] - **Expectation**: The price of soybean oil Y2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,400 - 8,800 [2] Daily View - Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: The same as that of soybean oil, the MPOB report is slightly bearish, and the inventory data exceeded expectations. The export data in January increased by 29% month-on-month, and the supply pressure decreases in the production reduction season. It is neutral [3] - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 9,700, and the basis is -68. The spot price is at a discount to the futures price. It is bearish [3] - **Inventory**: On March 9, the port inventory of palm oil was 736,000 tons, compared with 733,800 tons previously, a month-on-month increase of 2,200 tons and a year-on-year increase of 46%. It is bearish [3] - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. It is bullish [3] - **Main Position**: The short position of the main palm oil contract decreased. It is bearish [3] - **Expectation**: The price of palm oil P2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,500 - 9,900 [3] Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: The same as that of soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is slightly bearish, and the inventory data exceeded expectations. The export data in January increased by 29% month-on-month, and the supply pressure decreases in the production reduction season. It is neutral [4] - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10,340, and the basis is 453. The spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is bullish [4] - **Inventory**: On March 9, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 250,000 tons, compared with 270,000 tons previously, a month-on-month decrease of 20,000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 44%. It is bullish [4] - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. It is bullish [4] - **Main Position**: The short position of the main rapeseed oil contract increased. It is bearish [4] - **Expectation**: The price of rapeseed oil OI2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,600 - 10,000 [4] Recent Bullish and Bearish Analysis - **Bullish**: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, and the supply is tight. There is a tremor season for palm oil [5] - **Bearish**: The edible oil prices are at a relatively high level historically, and the domestic edible oil inventory continues to accumulate. The macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related edible oils is high [5] - **Main Logic**: The global edible oil fundamentals are relatively loose [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The overall outlook for oil prices is oscillating with a slight upward bias. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic oil supply is stable. Tensions in Sino-US relations have affected the export of new US soybeans, putting pressure on prices. Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, demand has improved, Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The soaring international crude oil price drives up oil prices. The domestic oil fundamentals are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4] Summary by Categories Daily Viewpoints Soybean Oil - Fundamental: The MPOB report shows that in December, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 5.46% month-on-month to 1.8298 million tons, exports increased by 8.55% month-on-month to 1.3165 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory increased by 7.59% month-on-month to 3.0506 million tons. The report is slightly bearish, and the inventory data exceeded expectations. Currently, shipping survey agencies show that the export data of Malaysian palm oil in January has increased by 29% month-on-month. Entering the production reduction season, the supply pressure of palm oil decreases [2] - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,646, with a basis of 174, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [2] - Inventory: On January 9, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.02 million tons, compared with 1.08 million tons previously, a month-on-month decrease of 60,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 14.7% [2] - Disk: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [2] - Main Position: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have decreased [2] - Expectation: The soybean oil Y2605 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 8,400 - 8,800 [2] Palm Oil - Fundamental: Same as soybean oil [3] - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 95,000, with a basis of 90, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price [3] - Inventory: On January 9, the port inventory of palm oil was 736,000 tons, compared with 733,800 tons previously, a month-on-month increase of 2,200 tons and a year-on-year increase of 46% [3] - Disk: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [3] - Main Position: The short positions of the main palm oil contract have decreased [3] - Expectation: The palm oil P2605 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 9,200 - 9,800 [3] Rapeseed Oil - Fundamental: Same as soybean oil [4] - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10,224, with a basis of 513, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [4] - Inventory: On January 9, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 250,000 tons, compared with 270,000 tons previously, a month-on-month decrease of 20,000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 44% [4] - Disk: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [4] - Main Position: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have decreased [4] - Expectation: The rapeseed oil OI2605 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 9,600 - 10,000 [4] Recent利多利空Analysis -利多: The US soybean stock-to-sales ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. Palm oil is in the tremor season [5] -利空: Oil prices are at a relatively high historical level, and domestic oil inventories are continuously accumulating. The macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related oils is high [5] - Main Logic: The global oil fundamentals are relatively loose [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The overall price of oils and fats is expected to fluctuate strongly. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. Sino - US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the price of US soybeans. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and the demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The soaring international crude oil price drives up the oil price. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that in December, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 5.46% month - on - month to 1.8298 million tons, exports increased by 8.55% month - on - month to 1.3165 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory increased by 7.59% month - on - month to 3.0506 million tons. The report is slightly bearish, and the inventory data exceeded expectations. Currently, the shipping survey agency shows that the export data of Malaysian palm oil in January increased by 29% month - on - month. Entering the production - reduction season, the supply pressure of palm oil decreases. It is neutral [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8840, the basis is 212, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is bullish [2] - **Inventory**: On January 9, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.02 million tons, compared with 1.08 million tons previously, a month - on - month decrease of 60,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 14.7%. It is bearish [2] - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. It is bullish [2] - **Main Position**: The long position of the main soybean oil contract decreased. It is bullish [2] - **Expectation**: The price of soybean oil Y2605 will fluctuate in the range of 8400 - 8800 [2] Daily View - Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is slightly bearish, and the inventory data exceeded expectations. The export data in January increased by 29% month - on - month, and the supply pressure will decrease in the production - reduction season. It is neutral [3] - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 9740, the basis is 22, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is neutral [3] - **Inventory**: On January 9, the port inventory of palm oil was 736,000 tons, compared with 733,800 tons previously, a month - on - month increase of 2200 tons and a year - on - year increase of 46%. It is bearish [3] - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. It is bullish [3] - **Main Position**: The short position of the main palm oil contract decreased. It is bearish [3] - **Expectation**: The price of palm oil P2605 will fluctuate in the range of 9500 - 9900 [3] Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is slightly bearish, and the inventory data exceeded expectations. The export data in January increased by 29% month - on - month, and the supply pressure will decrease in the production - reduction season. It is neutral [4] - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10300, the basis is 424, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is bullish [4] - **Inventory**: On January 9, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 250,000 tons, compared with 270,000 tons previously, a month - on - month decrease of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 44%. It is bullish [4] - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. It is bullish [4] - **Main Position**: The short position of the main rapeseed oil contract increased. It is bearish [4] - **Expectation**: The price of rapeseed oil OI2605 will fluctuate in the range of 9600 - 10000 [4] Recent利多利空Analysis - **Likely**: The US soybean stock - to - sales ratio remains around 4%, and the supply is tight. There is a tremor season for palm oil [5] - **Unlikely**: The price of oils and fats is at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats continues to accumulate. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5] - **Main Logic**: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The overall trend of oil prices is expected to be oscillating and slightly bullish. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic oil supply is stable. Sino-US relations are stalemated, which puts pressure on the price of new US soybeans. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and the demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The soaring international crude oil price drives up the oil price. The domestic oil fundamentals are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Viewpoints Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil in December decreased by 5.46% month-on-month to 1.8298 million tons, exports increased by 8.55% month-on-month to 1.3165 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory increased by 7.59% month-on-month to 3.0506 million tons. The report is slightly bearish, and the inventory data exceeded expectations. Currently, the shipping survey agency shows that the export data of Malaysian palm oil in January has increased by 29% month-on-month. Entering the production reduction season, the supply pressure of palm oil decreases. Neutral [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,770, with a basis of 154, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. Bullish [2] - **Inventory**: On January 9, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.02 million tons, compared with 1.08 million tons previously, a month-on-month decrease of 60,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 14.7%. Bearish [2] - **Market Chart**: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. Bullish [2] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract decreased. Bullish [2] - **Expectation**: The soybean oil Y2605 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 8,400 - 8,800 [2] Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is slightly bearish, and the inventory data exceeded expectations. The export data in January increased by 29% month-on-month, and the supply pressure decreases in the production reduction season. Neutral [3] - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 9,678, with a basis of 118, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price. Bearish [3] - **Inventory**: On January 9, the port inventory of palm oil was 736,000 tons, compared with 733,800 tons previously, a month-on-month increase of 2,200 tons and a year-on-year increase of 46%. Bearish [3] - **Market Chart**: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. Bullish [3] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main palm oil contract increased. Bearish [3] - **Expectation**: The palm oil P2605 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 9,600 - 10,000 [3] Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is slightly bearish, and the inventory data exceeded expectations. The export data in January increased by 29% month-on-month, and the supply pressure decreases in the production reduction season. Neutral [4] - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10,310, with a basis of 456, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. Bullish [4] - **Inventory**: On January 9, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 250,000 tons, compared with 270,000 tons previously, a month-on-month decrease of 20,000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 44%. Bullish [4] - **Market Chart**: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. Bullish [4] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract increased. Bearish [4] - **Expectation**: The rapeseed oil OI2605 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 9,600 - 10,000 [4] Recent利多利空Analysis - **利多**: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. The palm oil production reduction season [5] - **利空**: The oil prices are at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic oil inventory has been continuously increasing. The macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related oils is high [5] - **Main Logic**: The global oil fundamentals are relatively loose [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided in the reports. Core Views Oils and Fats - Malaysian palm oil futures are expected to seek support at 4,500 ringgit, and domestic palm oil may decline to 9,500 yuan. US biodiesel policy is awaited, and domestic soybean oil may oscillate above 8,500 yuan. Vegetable oil market has positive factors, and rapeseed oil needs to watch for capital movements. [1] Cotton - ICE cotton futures are under pressure from a stronger dollar. US cotton is expected to maintain a volatile and upward trend. Domestic cotton has a bearish factor realized, and short - term prices will remain high and volatile. [2] Sugar - ICE raw sugar futures reached a seven - week high. Global sugar supply surplus is expected to narrow. Domestic sugar prices are supported but limited by weak sales data and increased imports, and will maintain high - level volatility. [4] Red Dates - In the off - season, the inventory reduction pressure is large. Red date futures prices are expected to oscillate and bottom out. [5][9] Apples - The apple spot market shows structural differentiation. Cold - storage inventory is at a historical low, supporting the futures price. Attention should be paid to Qingming replenishment, ordinary fruit de - stocking, and weather changes. [13][17] Corn - Corn prices in the Northeast are stable, and those in North China are steady. Demand from ports and deep - processing enterprises is recovering, but feed enterprises' demand is weak. Corn prices will remain high and volatile. [20][22] Meal - The US soybean market is回调, but the decline is limited. Domestic soybean meal is expected to maintain high - level volatility, waiting for the planting intention report. [24] Pigs - Slaughter volume is increasing, but the supply is large. The market is waiting for a lower entry point. Futures and spot prices are expected to continue to bottom out. [27] Eggs - Egg supply may decline slightly, and demand is average. Egg prices will maintain a low - level volatile pattern. [29] Summary by Industry Oils and Fats - **Price Changes**: On March 18, compared with March 17, soybean oil spot price decreased by 0.23%, futures price decreased by 1.20%, and basis increased by 40.78%. Palm oil spot price decreased by 1.62%, futures price decreased by 2.63%, and basis increased by 134.21%. Rapeseed oil spot price decreased by 0.60%, futures price decreased by 0.54%, and basis decreased by 2.02%. [1] Cotton - **Futures Market**: Cotton 2605 decreased by 1.74%, and 2609 decreased by 1.61%. The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 26.67%. The main contract's open interest decreased by 7.98%. [2] - **Spot Market**: Xinjiang arrival price and CC Index 3128B increased, while FC Index M 1% increased significantly. The basis of 3128B - 05 and 3128B - 09 increased. [2] - **Industry Situation**: Commercial inventory decreased by 100%, industrial inventory increased by 14.5%, and imports increased by 49.5%. [2] Sugar - **Futures Market**: Sugar 2605 decreased by 1.17%, and 2609 decreased by 1.21%. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 10.00%. The main contract's open interest decreased by 7.00%. [4] - **Spot Market**: Nanning and Kunming spot prices decreased, and the basis increased. Imported sugar prices increased. [4] - **Industry Situation**: National sugar production decreased by 4.69%, sales decreased by 27.39%, and industrial inventory increased by 17.03%. [4] Red Dates - **Futures Market**: Red date 2605 decreased by 2.55%, 2607 decreased by 2.61%, and 2609 decreased by 2.50%. The 5 - 7 spread increased by 5.41%, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 1.33%. The open interest decreased by 6.05%. [5] - **Spot Market**: Cangzhou spot prices remained stable, and the basis increased. [5] Apples - **Futures Market**: Apple 2605 increased by 0.03%, and 2610 increased by 0.24%. The 5 - 10 spread decreased by 1.33%. The open interest increased by 1.59%. [13] - **Spot Market**: The basis decreased by 6.35%. [13] - **Industry Situation**: National cold - storage inventory decreased by 5.27%. [13] Corn - **Corn**: The 2605 price decreased by 0.17%, the basis increased by 16.67%, and the 5 - 9 spread remained unchanged. The north - south trade profit decreased by 34.48%. [20] - **Corn Starch**: The 2605 price decreased by 0.33%, the basis increased by 386.00%, and the 5 - 9 spread remained unchanged. [20] Meal - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price increased by 0.30%, the futures price decreased by 1.11%, and the basis increased by 17.60%. The import crushing profit decreased by 23.3%. [24] - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price decreased by 0.75%, the futures price decreased by 1.69%, and the basis increased by 11.28%. The import crushing profit decreased by 75.34%. [24] Pigs - **Futures Market**: The main contract basis increased by 706.25%, the 2605 price decreased by 2.06%, and the 3 - 5 spread decreased by 76.70%. The open interest increased by 1.13%. [27] - **Spot Market**: Spot prices in various regions decreased slightly. [27] - **Industry Situation**: Slaughter volume increased by 0.80%, the white - striped pork price decreased by 3.01%, and the self - breeding profit decreased by 18.98%. [27] Eggs - **Futures Market**: The 04 contract increased by 0.65%, and the 05 contract increased by 0.53%. The 4 - 5 spread increased by 2.34%. [29] - **Spot Market**: The egg - producing area price increased by 1.80%, the egg - chick price remained unchanged, and the culled - hen price increased by 5.26%. [29] - **Industry Situation**: The egg - to - feed ratio decreased by 9.00%, and the breeding profit decreased by 249.92%. [29]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. Core Views Oils and Fats - Malaysian palm oil futures are expected to seek support at 4,500 ringgit, and domestic palm oil may decline to 9,500 yuan. US biodiesel policy is awaited, and domestic soybean oil may fluctuate slightly above 8,500 yuan. Vegetable oil market has positive factors, and rapeseed oil needs to watch for capital flow and spot market conditions [1]. Cotton - ICE cotton futures are affected by the strong US dollar. US cotton is expected to be volatile and strong. In China, the issuance of processing trade quotas has been implemented, and cotton prices are expected to be highly volatile in the short term [2]. Sugar - ICE raw sugar futures have reached a seven - week high. The global sugar supply surplus in the 26/27 season is expected to narrow. In China, sugar prices are supported by policies but limited by weak sales data and increased imports, and are expected to be highly volatile [4]. Red Dates - In the off - season, the inventory pressure is high, and the red date futures price is expected to bottom out in a volatile manner [5][9]. Apples - The apple spot market is structurally differentiated. The cold - storage inventory is at a low level, which supports the futures price. Attention should be paid to holiday replenishment, ordinary fruit de - stocking, and weather changes [13][17]. Corn and Corn Starch - Corn prices in the Northeast are stable, and those in North China are stable. The demand side has mixed performance, and corn prices are expected to be high and volatile. Corn starch prices are affected by corn prices [20][22]. Meal - The US soybean market is under pressure but supported by oil prices. Domestic soybean meal is expected to be highly volatile, waiting for the planting intention report [24]. Pigs - The slaughter volume has increased, but the supply is large, and the demand is in the off - season. Futures and spot prices are expected to continue to bottom out, and there may be further declines in the near - month contracts [27]. Eggs - The egg supply may decline slightly, and the demand is average. Egg prices are expected to be low and volatile [29]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Price Changes**: On March 18, compared with March 17, soybean oil spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 0.23%, futures price decreased by 1.20%, and the basis increased by 40.78%. Palm oil spot price in Guangdong decreased by 1.62%, futures price decreased by 2.63%, and the basis increased by 134.21%. Rapeseed oil spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 0.60%, futures price decreased by 0.54%, and the basis decreased by 2.02% [1]. - **Market Analysis**: Malaysian palm oil is affected by crude oil, and domestic palm oil is under pressure. US biodiesel policy affects soybean oil, and vegetable oil market positive factors affect rapeseed oil [1]. Cotton - **Price Changes**: On March 19, compared with the previous value, cotton 2605 decreased by 1.74%, cotton 2609 decreased by 1.61%, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 26.67%. The main contract's open interest decreased by 7.98% [2]. - **Market Analysis**: ICE cotton is affected by the US dollar, and the issuance of Chinese processing trade quotas has an impact on the market. The off - season demand and high cotton prices affect the market sentiment [2]. Sugar - **Price Changes**: On March 19, compared with the previous value, sugar 2605 decreased by 1.17%, sugar 2609 decreased by 1.21%, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 10.00%. The main contract's open interest decreased by 7.00% [4]. - **Market Analysis**: ICE raw sugar is affected by oil prices and market speculation. In China, the increase in planting area and rainfall affects production, and sales data and imports affect prices [4]. Red Dates - **Price Changes**: On March 19, compared with the previous value, red date 2605 decreased by 2.55%, red date 2607 decreased by 2.61%, red date 2609 decreased by 2.50%. The open interest decreased by 6.05% [5]. - **Market Analysis**: In the off - season, the inventory pressure is high, and the market sentiment is weak [5][9]. Apples - **Price Changes**: On March 19, compared with the previous value, apple 2605 increased by 0.03%, apple 2610 increased by 0.24%, and the 5 - 10 spread decreased by 1.33%. The open interest increased by 1.59% [13]. - **Market Analysis**: The spot market is structurally differentiated, and the cold - storage inventory is at a low level, which supports the futures price [13][17]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Price Changes**: On March 19, compared with the previous value, corn 2605 decreased by 0.17%, the basis increased by 16.67%, and the 5 - 9 spread remained unchanged. Corn starch 2605 decreased by 0.33%, and the basis increased by 386.00% [20]. - **Market Analysis**: Corn prices in the Northeast and North China are stable, and the demand side has mixed performance. Corn starch prices are affected by corn prices [20][22]. Meal - **Price Changes**: On March 19, compared with the previous value, soybean meal spot price in Jiangsu increased by 0.30%, futures price decreased by 1.11%, and the basis increased by 17.60%. Rapeseed meal spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 0.75%, futures price decreased by 1.69%, and the basis increased by 11.28% [24]. - **Market Analysis**: The US soybean market is under pressure but supported by oil prices. Domestic soybean meal is affected by cost and supply concerns [24]. Pigs - **Price Changes**: On March 19, compared with the previous value, the main contract's basis increased by 706.25%, pig 2605 decreased by 2.06%, pig 2603 decreased by 6.04%, and the 3 - 5 spread decreased by 76.70%. The main contract's open interest increased by 1.13% [27]. - **Market Analysis**: The slaughter volume has increased, but the supply is large, and the demand is in the off - season. The market is concerned about secondary fattening and frozen product storage [27]. Eggs - **Price Changes**: On March 19, compared with the previous value, egg 04 increased by 0.65%, egg 05 increased by 0.53%, and the 4 - 5 spread increased by 2.34%. The egg - feed ratio decreased by 9.00%, and the breeding profit decreased by 249.92% [29]. - **Market Analysis**: The egg supply may decline slightly, and the demand is average. The market is waiting for the Qingming Festival to boost prices [29].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided. Core Viewpoints Oils and Fats - Soybean oil may still have potential upside due to the US biodiesel policy, and Dalian soybean oil may continue to rise after breaking through 8,400 [1]. - Palm oil may face downward pressure as the MPOB report is released and concerns about production growth in March increase [1]. - Rapeseed oil futures may be supported by the escalation of the war between the US, Israel, and Iran, and the expected decline in Malaysian palm oil inventories [1]. Cotton - US cotton is expected to remain in a low - level consolidation pattern, and domestic cotton prices may maintain a high - level consolidation in the short term, with strong long - term demand from spinning mills [2]. Sugar - The international sugar price is supported by factors such as the expected reduction in India's production and the decrease in Brazil's sugar - making ratio. Domestic sugar prices are supported by policy expectations and the overall strength of commodities, but the weak sales data in February and the significant increase in inventory may limit the upside [3]. Red Dates - The red date market in the 25/26 production season still has an oversupply situation, with slow inventory reduction. The cost of warehouse receipts supports the futures price [4]. Apples - The apple futures price has fallen from its high due to the cooling market sentiment. The spot market shows a "west - strong, east - weak" pattern, and the low inventory in cold storage supports the futures price [6]. Corn - In the short term, the increase in corn sales and the substitution of wheat may put pressure on corn prices, but the low inventory of downstream enterprises and the need for replenishment will support prices, and the market will remain in a high - level consolidation [9]. Meal - The US soybean price is supported by factors such as the US - Iran conflict, biodiesel expectations, and China's procurement expectations. The domestic meal basis has strengthened, and the futures price is expected to remain in a high - level consolidation [11]. Pigs - The large - scale slaughter of large pigs, the weak demand in the off - season, and the low enthusiasm for secondary fattening may lead to the futures and spot prices continuing to bottom out [14]. Eggs - In the short term, the supply of eggs may decline slightly, and the demand may improve slightly with the approach of the Tomb - Sweeping Festival. The egg price is expected to remain in a low - level consolidation [16]. Summary by Directory Oils and Fats - **Price Changes**: On March 13, the spot price of soybean oil in Jiangsu increased by 0.45% to 8,990, the futures price of Y2605 increased by 0.67% to 8,690, and the basis of Y2605 decreased by 5.66% [1]. - **Supply and Demand Factors**: The US soybean oil futures were supported by rising crude oil prices and optimistic biofuel demand. The palm oil was affected by weak exports and potential production growth in March. Rapeseed oil was affected by the war in the Middle East and the expected decline in Malaysian palm oil inventories [1]. Cotton - **Price Changes**: On March 16, the futures price of cotton 2605 decreased by 0.64% to 15,415, and the price of Xinjiang 3128B cotton at the factory increased by 0.19% to 16,704 [2]. - **Supply and Demand Factors**: The USDA balance sheet adjusted global production and consumption. The domestic market was affected by the issuance of sliding - scale tax quotas, and spinning mills' demand for cotton was strong in the long term [2]. Sugar - **Price Changes**: On March 16, the futures price of sugar 2605 increased by 0.57% to 5,447, and the spot price in Nanning increased by 0.37% to 5,490 [3]. - **Supply and Demand Factors**: The expected reduction in India's production and the decrease in Brazil's sugar - making ratio supported the international sugar price. The domestic sugar market was affected by policy expectations and weak sales data in February [3]. Red Dates - **Price Changes**: On March 16, the futures price of red dates 2605 increased by 0.17% to 9,095, and the spot price of Cangzhou's special - grade red dates remained unchanged at 9,210 [4]. - **Supply and Demand Factors**: The red date market in the 25/26 production season had an oversupply situation, with slow inventory reduction [4]. Apples - **Price Changes**: On March 16, the futures price of apple 2605 increased by 0.14% to 9,998, and the basis decreased by 6.35% to - 1,525 [6]. - **Supply and Demand Factors**: The apple spot market showed a "west - strong, east - weak" pattern, and the inventory in cold storage decreased, which supported the futures price [6]. Corn - **Price Changes**: On March 16, the basis of corn increased by 41.67% to 34, and the price of corn 2605 at Jinzhou Port decreased by 0.42% to 2,386 [9]. - **Supply and Demand Factors**: The supply of corn in the Northeast increased, and the demand from deep - processing enterprises and feed enterprises was affected by wheat substitution. Policy factors also had an impact on the market [9]. Meal - **Price Changes**: On March 16, the spot price of soybean meal in Jiangsu increased by 2.44% to 3,360, and the futures price of M2605 increased by 2.42% to 3,128 [11]. - **Supply and Demand Factors**: The US soybean price was supported by multiple factors, and the domestic meal basis strengthened. The market was also affected by factors such as oil mill shutdowns and import costs [11]. Pigs - **Price Changes**: On March 16, the futures price of live pigs 2605 increased by 0.18% to 11,150, and the spot price in Henan increased by 1% to 10,150 [14]. - **Supply and Demand Factors**: The large - scale slaughter of large pigs, weak demand in the off - season, and low enthusiasm for secondary fattening affected the market [14]. Eggs - **Price Changes**: On March 16, the futures price of egg 04 increased by 0.12% to 3,275, and the spot price of eggs in the producing area decreased by 0.58% to 3.10 [16]. - **Supply and Demand Factors**: The supply of eggs may decline slightly due to factors such as molting and high prices of culled chickens. The demand may improve slightly with the approach of the Tomb - Sweeping Festival [16].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that inflation expectations serve as a "macro engine" for commodity markets, with recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East significantly influencing commodity trends, particularly leading to a surge in oil prices and a renewed focus on inflation trades, which may also heighten the risk of stagflation [2]. Group 1: Commodity Trends - Since January, commodities have shown overall strength with a structural market characterized by significant increases in energy prices, high levels in precious metals, a rebound in agricultural products, and weaker performance in the black commodities sector, reflecting rising supply chain risks and intensified policy negotiations [2]. - The recent geopolitical conflicts have notably increased market attention on agricultural products, leading to heightened speculative activity and a significant rise in implied volatility, with agricultural prices increasingly following oil price movements, indicating that macro-level influences outweigh basic supply-demand fundamentals [2]. Group 2: Correlation Between Oil and Agricultural Products - Historical data shows varying correlations between oil and agricultural products, with imported agricultural products being most affected. From 2016 to present, the correlation between Brent crude oil and agricultural prices, such as U.S. soybean oil, cotton, and corn, has been notably strong, often exceeding 0.67 [3]. Group 3: Oil Market Dynamics - In early March, the oil market experienced a rapid upward pulse due to U.S.-Iran tensions, although prices have since retreated, establishing a higher price baseline. The oilseed market has strengthened due to both commodity market sentiment and the supportive fundamentals of biodiesel, making oilseeds a preferred choice among agricultural products [6]. - The current oil market dynamics differ from the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict, as the oil market is now influenced by ongoing geopolitical tensions, with no clear signals for a ceasefire, leading to a gradual increase in oil price baselines [9]. Group 4: Agricultural Costs and Production - The conflict has raised fertilizer and chemical costs significantly, with the USDA estimating a 92% increase in fertilizer costs and a 54% increase in chemical costs for soybean planting in 2022. This cost increase is expected to persist into 2025 and 2026, leading to an overall rise in planting costs by approximately 9% [11]. - The soybean market is currently under pressure due to several years of high production, resulting in relatively low prices. However, the market sentiment is shifting, with the potential for upward price movement due to geopolitical events and changes in trade policies [12]. Group 5: Cotton Market Outlook - The ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict is expected to impact the cotton industry through increased costs across the supply chain, including planting, processing, and transportation. The ICAC predicts a 4% decline in global cotton production, which, combined with geopolitical uncertainties, may lead to increased price volatility [19]. - Short-term cotton prices are expected to remain strong, with potential for further increases if the conflict continues, as rising energy costs and declining production expectations converge [20]. Group 6: Sugar Market Dynamics - The global sugar market is currently in a production increase cycle, but prices are under pressure due to high industrial inventories. However, the market is showing signs of cost support, and geopolitical tensions may indirectly influence sugar prices through the ethanol market [27]. - The conflict has created disruptions in sugar supply chains, particularly affecting refined sugar exports, which may lead to tighter supply and upward price pressure in the sugar market [27]. Group 7: Corn Market Insights - The geopolitical tensions have led to significant uncertainty in logistics and production in the Middle East, driving up oil prices and subsequently impacting grain markets. Despite a generally loose supply-demand balance for corn and wheat, macroeconomic factors are currently dominating market dynamics [34]. - Domestic corn prices have strengthened due to market speculation and concerns over supply gaps, with expectations of continued price increases in the short term [34]. Group 8: Egg and Pork Markets - The fluctuations in oil prices are impacting the egg market primarily through cost channels, as rising feed prices due to increased demand for biofuels are expected to elevate production costs for eggs [42]. - The pork market is experiencing indirect effects from rising feed costs, which could lead to increased production costs and potential supply pressures in the near term [49].