证券代码：839979 油脂早报 2025-10-09投资咨询部 分析师: 王明伟 从业资格号： F0283029 投资咨询号： Z0010442 TEL: 0575-85226759 中美及中加关系缓和宏观层面影响市场。棕榈油P2601：9100-9500附近区间震荡 每日观点 豆油 1.基本面：MPOB报告显示，MPOB月报显示马棕8月产量环比减少9.8%至162万吨，出口环比减少14.74%至 149万吨，月末库存环比减少2.6%至183万吨。报告中性，减产不及预期。目前船调机构显示本月目前马 棕出口数据环比增加4%，后续进入增产季，棕榈油供应上有所增加。中性 2.基差：豆油现货8250，基差110，现货升水期货。偏多 3.库存：8月22日豆油商业库存118万吨，前116万吨，环比+2万吨，同比+11.7% 。偏空 4.盘面：期价运行在20日均线下，20日均线朝下。偏空 5.主力持仓：豆油主力多增。偏多 6.预期：油脂价格震荡整理，国内基本面宽松，国内油脂供应稳定。受阿根廷关税政策影响，豆类及油 脂供应增加，油脂油料回调整体。马棕库存偏中性，需求有所好转，印尼B40促进国内消费，美豆油生柴 政策扶持生柴 ...

证券代码：839979 油脂早报 2025-09-29投资咨询部 分析师: 王明伟 从业资格号： F0283029 投资咨询号： Z0010442 TEL: 0575-85226759 每日观点 豆油 1.基本面：MPOB报告显示，MPOB月报显示马棕8月产量环比减少9.8%至162万吨，出口环比减少14.74%至 149万吨，月末库存环比减少2.6%至183万吨。报告中性，减产不及预期。目前船调机构显示本月目前马 棕出口数据环比增加4%，后续进入增产季，棕榈油供应上有所增加。中性 2.基差：豆油现货8260，基差98，现货升水期货。偏多 3.库存：8月22日豆油商业库存118万吨，前116万吨，环比+2万吨，同比+11.7% 。偏空 4.盘面：期价运行在20日均线下，20日均线朝下。偏空 5.主力持仓：豆油主力多增。偏多 6.预期：油脂价格震荡整理，国内基本面宽松，国内油脂供应稳定。受阿根廷关税政策影响，豆类及油 脂供应增加，油脂油料回调整体。马棕库存偏中性，需求有所好转，印尼B40促进国内消费，美豆油生柴 政策扶持生柴消费增加。国内对加菜加征关税导致菜系领涨，国内油脂基本面偏中性，进口库存稳定。 中美及中 ...

证券代码：839979 油脂早报 2025-09-25投资咨询部 分析师: 王明伟 从业资格号： F0283029 投资咨询号： Z0010442 TEL: 0575-85226759 每日观点 豆油 1.基本面：MPOB报告显示，MPOB月报显示马棕8月产量环比减少9.8%至162万吨，出口环比减少14.74%至 149万吨，月末库存环比减少2.6%至183万吨。报告中性，减产不及预期。目前船调机构显示本月目前马 棕出口数据环比增加4%，后续进入增产季，棕榈油供应上有所增加。中性 2.基差：豆油现货8160，基差96，现货升水期货。偏多 3.库存：8月22日豆油商业库存118万吨，前116万吨，环比+2万吨，同比+11.7% 。偏空 4.盘面：期价运行在20日均线下，20日均线朝下。偏空 5.主力持仓：豆油主力多减。偏多 6.预期：油脂价格震荡整理，国内基本面宽松，国内油脂供应稳定。受阿根廷关税政策影响，豆类及油 脂供应增加，油脂油料回调整体。马棕库存偏中性，需求有所好转，印尼B40促进国内消费，美豆油生柴 政策扶持生柴消费增加。国内对加菜加征关税导致菜系领涨，国内油脂基本面偏中性，进口库存稳定。 中美及中 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for the 24/25 season is high. The Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil supports increased biodiesel consumption. The imposition of tariffs on Canadian rapeseed in China has led to a rise in the rapeseed sector. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and import inventories are stable. The easing of Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations affects the market at the macro level [2][3][4]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in May decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with the production cut falling short of expectations. Currently, shipping survey agencies indicate that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,450, with a basis of 84, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [2]. - **Inventory**: On August 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from the previous period and a year-on-year increase of 11.7% [2]. - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [2]. - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased [2]. - **Expectation**: The soybean oil Y2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,000 - 8,400 [2]. Daily View - Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report shows neutral conditions for Malaysian palm oil, and supply is expected to increase in the subsequent production season [3]. - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 9,372, with a basis of 12, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [3]. - **Inventory**: On August 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period and a year-on-year decrease of 34.1% [3]. - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [3]. - **Main Position**: The main palm oil contract has shifted from long to short positions [3]. - **Expectation**: The palm oil P2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,000 - 9,400 [3]. Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report shows neutral conditions for Malaysian palm oil, and supply is expected to increase in the subsequent production season [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10,273, with a basis of 130, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4]. - **Inventory**: On August 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period and a year-on-year increase of 3.2% [4]. - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [4]. - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have increased [4]. - **Expectation**: The rapeseed oil OI2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,800 - 10,200 [4]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **利多**: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. There is a tremor season for palm oil [5]. - **利空**: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, and domestic inventories of oils and fats are continuously accumulating. The macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of relevant oils and fats is high [5]. - **Main Logic**: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The prices of edible oils are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic edible oil supply is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for the 24/25 season is high, the Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, the demand has improved, Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil supports the increase in biodiesel consumption. The imposition of tariffs on Canadian rapeseed in China has led to the rise of rapeseed products, and the domestic edible oil fundamentals are neutral with stable import inventories. The easing of Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations affects the market at the macro level [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that in May, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with less-than-expected production cuts. Currently, shipping survey agencies show that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,408, with a basis of 80, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [2] - **Inventory**: On August 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year-on-year [2] - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [2] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased [2] - **Expectation**: The soybean oil Y2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,100 - 8,500 [2] Daily View - Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season [3] - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 9,318, with a basis of 2, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [3] - **Inventory**: On August 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year-on-year [3] - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [3] - **Main Position**: The main palm oil contract has changed from long to short [3] - **Expectation**: The palm oil P2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,100 - 9,500 [3] Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season [4] - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10,203, with a basis of 135, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4] - **Inventory**: On August 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year-on-year [4] - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [4] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have increased [4] - **Expectation**: The rapeseed oil OI2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,800 - 10,200 [4] Recent利多利空Analysis - **利多**: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply [5] - **利空**: The prices of edible oils are at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic edible oil inventory has been continuously increasing. The macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related edible oils is high [5] - **Main Logic**: The global edible oil fundamentals are relatively loose [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for the 24/25 season is high, the Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, the demand has improved, Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil supports increased biodiesel consumption. The imposition of tariffs on Canadian rapeseed in China has led to the rise of the rapeseed sector, and the domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral with stable import inventories. The easing of Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations affects the market at the macro level [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Soybean Oil - Fundamental: The MPOB report shows that in May, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with less-than-expected production cuts. Currently, shipping survey agencies show that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season. It is neutral [2] - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,538, with a basis of 38, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price. It is bullish [2] - Inventory: On August 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, compared with 1.16 million tons previously, a month-on-month increase of 20,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 11.7%. It is bearish [2] - Market: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. It is bullish [2] - Main Position: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased. It is bullish [2] - Expectation: The soybean oil Y2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,250 - 8,650 [2] Daily View - Palm Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season. It is neutral [3] - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 9,638, with a basis of 138, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price. It is bullish [3] - Inventory: On August 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, compared with 570,000 tons previously, a month-on-month increase of 10,000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 34.1%. It is bullish [3] - Market: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. It is bullish [3] - Main Position: The long positions of the main palm oil contract have turned to short positions. It is bearish [3] - Expectation: The palm oil P2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,300 - 9,700 [3] Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season. It is neutral [4] - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9,986, with a basis of 165, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price. It is bullish [4] - Inventory: On August 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, compared with 550,000 tons previously, a month-on-month increase of 10,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 3.2%. It is bearish [4] - Market: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. It is bullish [4] - Main Position: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have increased. It is bearish [4] - Expectation: The rapeseed oil OI2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,600 - 10,000 [4] Recent Bullish and Bearish Analysis - Bullish: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. There is a tremor season for palm oil [5] - Bearish: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats has been continuously accumulating. The macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5] - Main Logic: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for the 24/25 season is high, the Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, demand has improved, Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil supports increased biodiesel consumption. The domestic tariff on Canadian rapeseed has led to a rise in the rapeseed sector, and the domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral with stable import inventories. Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations have an impact on the market at the macro level. [3][5][6] - The main logic currently revolves around the relatively loose global fundamentals of oils and fats. The main risk factor is El Niño weather. [7] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Views - Soybean Oil - The main long positions in soybean oil have increased, indicating a bullish signal. [3] - The MPOB report shows that in May, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month-on-month to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% month-on-month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with the production decline falling short of expectations. Currently, the shipping survey agency shows that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season, presenting a neutral situation. [3][4] - The spot price of soybean oil is 8,580, with a basis of 54, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price, a bullish signal. [4] - On July 4, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 880,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year-on-year, a bearish signal. [4] - The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward, a bullish signal. [4] - Soybean oil Y2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,200 - 8,600. [3] Daily Views - Palm Oil - The main short positions in palm oil have decreased, indicating a bearish signal. [5] - Similar to the soybean oil situation, the MPOB report on Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season. [5] - The spot price of palm oil is 9,650, with a basis of 10, indicating a neutral situation. [5] - On July 4, the port inventory of palm oil was 380,000 tons, down 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year-on-year, a bullish signal. [5] - The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward, a bullish signal. [5] - Palm oil P2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,300 - 9,700. [5] Daily Views - Rapeseed Oil - The main short positions in rapeseed oil have increased, indicating a bearish signal. [6] - The MPOB report on Malaysian palm oil is the same as above, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season. [6] - The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9,900, with a basis of 50, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price, a bullish signal. [6] - On July 4, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 650,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year-on-year, a bearish signal. [6] - The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward, a bullish signal. [6] - Rapeseed oil OI2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,600 - 10,000. [6] Recent利多利空Analysis - Bullish factors include the US soybean stock-to-use ratio remaining around 4%, indicating tight supply, and the palm oil production reduction season. [7] - Bearish factors include the historically high prices of oils and fats, the continuous accumulation of domestic oils and fats inventories, the weak macroeconomy, and the high expected production of related oils and fats. [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for the 24/25 season is high, the Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US soybean oil biodiesel policy supports increased biodiesel consumption. The domestic tariff increase on Canadian rapeseed has led to a rise in the rapeseed sector, and the domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral with stable import inventories. The easing of China-US and China-Canada relations affects the market at the macro level [3][5][6]. - The main logic currently is that the global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose. The main risk factor is El Niño weather [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Views - Soybean Oil - The main long positions in soybean oil have increased, indicating a bullish signal [3]. - The MPOB report shows that in May, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral as the production reduction was less than expected. Currently, the shipping survey agency shows that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month, and supply will increase in the subsequent production season, presenting a neutral situation [3][4]. - The spot price of soybean oil is 8,600, with a basis of 66, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish [4]. - On July 4, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 880,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year-on-year, which is bearish [4]. - The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward, which is bullish [4]. - The soybean oil Y2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,400 - 8,800 [3]. Daily Views - Palm Oil - The MPOB report shows that in May, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral as the production reduction was less than expected. Currently, the shipping survey agency shows that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month, and supply will increase in the subsequent production season, presenting a neutral situation [5]. - The spot price of palm oil is 9,500, with a basis of 40, indicating a neutral situation [5]. - On July 4, the port inventory of palm oil was 380,000 tons, down 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year-on-year, which is bullish [5]. - The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward, which is bullish [5]. - The main short positions in palm oil have decreased, indicating a bearish signal [5]. - The palm oil P2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,400 - 9,800 [5]. Daily Views - Rapeseed Oil - The MPOB report shows that in May, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral as the production reduction was less than expected. Currently, the shipping survey agency shows that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month, and supply will increase in the subsequent production season, presenting a neutral situation [6]. - The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9,900, with a basis of 143, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish [6]. - On July 4, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 650,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year-on-year, which is bearish [6]. - The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward, which is bullish [6]. - The main short positions in rapeseed oil have increased, indicating a bearish signal [6]. - The rapeseed oil OI2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,700 - 10,100 [6]. Recent利多利空Analysis - Bullish factors: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply, and it is the palm oil production reduction season [7]. - Bearish factors: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, the domestic inventory of oils and fats continues to accumulate, the macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [7]. Supply - Imported soybean inventory [8] - Soybean oil inventory [10] - Soybean meal inventory [12] - Oil mill soybean crushing [14] - Palm oil inventory [19] - Rapeseed oil inventory [22] - Rapeseed inventory [24] - Total domestic inventory of oils and fats [26] Demand - Apparent consumption of soybean oil [16]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The price of oils and fats will fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose with stable supply. The USDA's South American production forecast for 24/25 is high. Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 promotes domestic consumption, and the US soybean oil biodiesel policy supports increased biodiesel consumption. The imposition of tariffs on Canadian rapeseed in China has led to the leadership of the rapeseed sector. The domestic oil and fat fundamentals are neutral, and import inventories are stable. The easing of Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations affects the market at the macro level [2][3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that in May, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral with less - than - expected production cuts. Currently, the shipping survey agency shows that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,600, with a basis of 80, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [2] - **Inventory**: On July 4, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 880,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 20,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 11.7% [2] - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward [2] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have decreased [2] - **Expectation**: Soybean oil Y2601 will fluctuate in the range of 8,250 - 8,650 [2] Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report shows neutral results with less - than - expected production cuts, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season [3] - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 9,400, with a basis of 32, indicating a neutral situation [3] - **Inventory**: On July 4, the port inventory of palm oil was 380,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 10,000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 34.1% [3] - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward [3] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main palm oil contract have increased [3] - **Expectation**: Palm oil P2601 will fluctuate in the range of 9,150 - 9,550 [3] Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: The same MPOB report situation as above, indicating neutral fundamentals and increasing palm oil supply later [4] - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10,000, with a basis of 160, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4] - **Inventory**: On July 4, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 650,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 20,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 3.2% [4] - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward [4] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have increased [4] - **Expectation**: Rapeseed oil OI2601 will fluctuate in the range of 9,600 - 10,000 [4] Recent利多利空Analysis - **Likely**: The US soybean stocks - to - use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply, and it is the palm oil production - reduction season [5] - **Unlikely**: The price of oils and fats is at a relatively high historical level, and domestic oil and fat inventories are continuously accumulating. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of relevant oils and fats is high [5] - **Main Logic**: The global oil and fat fundamentals are relatively loose [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of edible oils are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic edible oil supply is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for the 24/25 season is relatively high, the Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, demand has improved, Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil supports increased biodiesel consumption. The domestic tariff increase on Canadian rapeseed has led to a rise in the rapeseed sector, and the domestic edible oil fundamentals are neutral with stable import inventories. Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations have eased, which impacts the market at the macro level [2][3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Views on Different Oils Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in May decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with the production decline falling short of expectations. Currently, shipping survey agencies indicate that Malaysian palm oil export data for this month has increased by 4% month-on-month, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,656, with a basis of 80, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [2]. - **Inventory**: On July 4, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 880,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year-on-year [2]. - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [2]. - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased [2]. - **Expectation**: The soybean oil Y2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,350 - 8,750 [2]. Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season [3]. - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 9,525, with a basis of 35, indicating a neutral situation [3]. - **Inventory**: On July 4, the port inventory of palm oil was 380,000 tons, down 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year-on-year [3]. - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [3]. - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main palm oil contract have decreased [3]. - **Expectation**: The palm oil P2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,300 - 9,700 [3]. Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10,150, with a basis of 86, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4]. - **Inventory**: On July 4, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 650,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year-on-year [4]. - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [4]. - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have decreased [4]. - **Expectation**: The rapeseed oil OI2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,800 - 10,200 [4]. Recent Bullish and Bearish Analysis - **Bullish Factors**: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. It is the palm oil production reduction season [5]. - **Bearish Factors**: Edible oil prices are historically high, and domestic edible oil inventories are continuously increasing. The macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related edible oils is high [5]. - **Current Main Logic**: The global edible oil fundamentals are relatively loose [5]. Supply and Demand Indicators - **Supply Indicators**: Include import soybean inventory [6], soybean oil inventory [8], soybean meal inventory [10], oil mill soybean crushing [12], palm oil inventory [17], rapeseed oil inventory [20], rapeseed inventory [22], and total domestic edible oil inventory [24]. - **Demand Indicator**: Soybean oil apparent consumption [14].