证券代码：839979 油脂早报 2025-11-21投资咨询部 分析师: 王明伟 从业资格号： F0283029 投资咨询号： Z0010442 TEL: 0575-85226759 每日观点 豆油 1.基本面：MPOB报告显示，MPOB月报显示马棕8月产量环比减少9.8%至162万吨，出口环比减少14.74%至 149万吨，月末库存环比减少2.6%至183万吨。报告中性，减产不及预期。目前船调机构显示本月目前马 棕出口数据环比增加4%，后续进入减产季，棕榈油供应上压力减小。中性 2.基差：豆油现货8422，基差198，现货升水期货。偏多 3.库存：9月22日豆油商业库存118万吨，前116万吨，环比+2万吨，同比+11.7% 。偏空 4.盘面：期价运行在20日均线下，20日均线朝下。偏空 5.主力持仓：豆油主力多增。偏多 6.预期：油脂价格震荡整理，国内基本面宽松，国内油脂供应稳定。中美关系僵持，美豆新豆出口受挫， 价格承压。马棕库存偏中性，需求有所好转，印尼B40促进国内消费，26年预计实施B50计划。国内油脂 基本面偏中性，进口库存稳定。豆油Y2601：8000-8400附近区间震荡 每日观点 棕榈油 ...

油脂早报 证券代码：839979 2025-11-19投资咨询部 分析师: 王明伟 从业资格号： F0283029 投资咨询号： Z0010442 TEL: 0575-85226759 每日观点 豆油 1.基本面：MPOB报告显示，MPOB月报显示马棕8月产量环比减少9.8%至162万吨，出口环比减少14.74%至 149万吨，月末库存环比减少2.6%至183万吨。报告中性，减产不及预期。目前船调机构显示本月目前马 棕出口数据环比增加4%，后续进入减产季，棕榈油供应上压力减小。中性 2.基差：豆油现货8480，基差160，现货升水期货。偏多 3.库存：9月22日豆油商业库存118万吨，前116万吨，环比+2万吨，同比+11.7% 。偏空 4.盘面：期价运行在20日均线上，20日均线朝上。偏多 5.主力持仓：豆油主力多增。偏多 6.预期：油脂价格震荡整理，国内基本面宽松，国内油脂供应稳定。中美关系僵持，美豆新豆出口受挫， 价格承压。马棕库存偏中性，需求有所好转，印尼B40促进国内消费，26年预计实施B50计划。国内油脂 基本面偏中性，进口库存稳定。豆油Y2601：8200-8600附近区间震荡 每日观点 棕榈油 ...

证券代码：839979 油脂早报 2025-11-18投资咨询部 分析师: 王明伟 从业资格号： F0283029 投资咨询号： Z0010442 TEL: 0575-85226759 每日观点 1.基本面：MPOB报告显示，MPOB月报显示马棕8月产量环比减少9.8%至162万吨，出口环比减少14.74%至 149万吨，月末库存环比减少2.6%至183万吨。报告中性，减产不及预期。目前船调机构显示本月目前马 棕出口数据环比增加4%，后续进入减产季，棕榈油供应上压力减小。中性 2.基差：豆油现货8440，基差158，现货升水期货。偏多 3.库存：9月22日豆油商业库存118万吨，前116万吨，环比+2万吨，同比+11.7% 。偏空 4.盘面：期价运行在20日均线上，20日均线朝上。偏多 5.主力持仓：豆油主力多增。偏多 6.预期：油脂价格震荡整理，国内基本面宽松，国内油脂供应稳定。中美关系僵持，美豆新豆出口受挫， 价格承压。马棕库存偏中性，需求有所好转，印尼B40促进国内消费，26年预计实施B50计划。国内油脂 基本面偏中性，进口库存稳定。豆油Y2601：8200-8600附近区间震荡 每日观点 棕榈油 1. ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. Sino-US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the price of new US soybeans. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4] - The main logic currently revolves around the relatively loose global fundamentals of oils and fats. The main risk is the El Nino weather [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - As of September 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1180000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 20000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 11.7% [2] - As of September 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 10000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 34.1% [3] - As of September 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 10000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 3.2% [4] - Other supply aspects mentioned include soybean meal inventory, oil mill soybean crushing, palm oil inventory, rapeseed inventory, and domestic total inventory of oils and fats [8][10][17] Demand - Demand aspects mentioned include the apparent consumption of soybean oil and soybean meal [12][14] Price Expectation - Soybean oil Y2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8100 - 8500 [2] - Palm oil P2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8500 - 8900 [3] - Rapeseed oil OI2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9700 - 10100 [4] Market Analysis - For soybean oil, the basis shows that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, the inventory is increasing, the futures price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the long positions of the main contract are decreasing [2] - For palm oil, the basis shows that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price, the inventory is increasing but the year - on - year decrease is significant, the futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the long positions of the main contract are increasing [3] - For rapeseed oil, the basis shows that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, the inventory is increasing, the futures price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the long positions of the main contract are increasing [4] Factors Affecting the Market - Bullish factors: The US soybean stock - to - use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply [5] - Bearish factors: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, the domestic inventory of oils and fats is continuously increasing, the macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of relevant oils and fats is high [5]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The prices of edible oils are expected to fluctuate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic edible oil supply is stable. Sino - US relations are tense, which has put pressure on the prices of new US soybeans due to export setbacks. Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic edible oil fundamentals are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Category Daily View - Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in August decreased by 9.8% month - on - month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month - on - month to 1.49 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% month - on - month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with less - than - expected production cuts. Currently, shipping survey agencies show that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month - on - month. Subsequently, as it enters the production - reduction season, the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease. The overall assessment is neutral [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8372, and the basis is 144, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. This is a bullish factor [2]. - **Inventory**: On September 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, compared with 1.16 million tons previously, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 11.7%. This is a bearish factor [2]. - **Market**: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. This is a bearish factor [2]. - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased. This is a bullish factor [2]. - **Expectation**: The soybean oil contract Y2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8000 - 8400 [2]. Daily View - Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral with less - than - expected production cuts. Currently, shipping survey agencies show that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month - on - month. Subsequently, as it enters the production - increase season, the supply of palm oil will increase. The overall assessment is neutral [3]. - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 8714, and the basis is 24, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price. This is a neutral factor [3]. - **Inventory**: On September 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, compared with 570,000 tons previously, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 34.1%. This is a bullish factor [3]. - **Market**: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. This is a bearish factor [3]. - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main palm oil contract have increased. This is a bullish factor [3]. - **Expectation**: The palm oil contract P2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8500 - 8900 [3]. Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: The same MPOB report situation as above. Subsequently, as it enters the production - increase season, the supply of palm oil will increase. The overall assessment is neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9881, and the basis is 294, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. This is a bullish factor [4]. - **Inventory**: On September 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, compared with 550,000 tons previously, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 3.2%. This is a bearish factor [4]. - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. This is a bullish factor [4]. - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have increased. This is a bullish factor [4]. - **Expectation**: The rapeseed oil contract OI2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9400 - 9800 [4]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **Bullish Factors**: The inventory - to - sales ratio of US soybeans remains around 4%, indicating a tight supply. There is also the palm oil tremor season [5]. - **Bearish Factors**: The prices of edible oils are at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic edible oil inventory has been continuously increasing. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related edible oils is high [5]. - **Main Logic**: The global fundamentals of edible oils are relatively loose [5].

Report Overview - Analyst: Wang Mingwei [1] -从业资格号： F0283029 [1] - Investment Consultation Number: Z0010442 [1] - Date: 2025-11-07 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. Sino-US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the price of US soybeans. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and the demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4] Summary by Category Daily Views Soybean Oil - Fundamental: The MPOB report shows that Malaysia's palm oil production in August decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month-on-month to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% month-on-month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, and the production cut is less than expected. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month shows a 4% month-on-month increase. Entering the production cut season, the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease. The basis is 92, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price. The commercial inventory on September 22 was 1.18 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 20,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 11.7%. The futures price is running below the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is downward. The short positions of the main contract have increased. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,000 - 8,400 [2] Palm Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil, but entering the production increase season, the supply of palm oil will increase. The basis is -32, indicating that the spot price is lower than the futures price. The port inventory on September 22 was 580,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 10,000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 34.1%. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,400 - 8,800 [3] Rapeseed Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil. The basis is 286, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price. The commercial inventory on September 22 was 560,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 10,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 3.2%. The long positions of the main contract have increased. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,300 - 9,700 [4] Recent利多利空Analysis -利多: The inventory-to-sales ratio of US soybeans remains around 4%, indicating tight supply [5] -利空: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high level historically, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats continues to accumulate. The macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5] - Main Logic: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are loose [5] Supply - Items include soybean oil inventory, soybean meal inventory, oil mill soybean crushing, palm oil inventory, rapeseed oil inventory, rapeseed inventory, and domestic total inventory of oils and fats [6][8][10][17][19][21][23] Demand - Items include soybean oil apparent consumption and soybean meal apparent consumption [12][14]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic oil and fat supply is stable. Sino - US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the price of new US soybeans due to受挫 exports. Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, demand has improved, and Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption with a planned B50 implementation in 2026. The domestic oil and fat fundamentals are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4] - The current main logic is centered around the relatively loose global oil and fat fundamentals, with the main risk being El Nino weather [5] 3. Summary by Related Contents Daily Viewpoints - **Soybean Oil**: The MPOB report for August shows that Malaysian palm oil production decreased 9.8% to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and end - of - month inventory decreased 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. Ship - surveying agencies indicate a 4% month - on - month increase in Malaysian palm oil exports this month. Entering the production - reduction season, palm oil supply pressure will decrease. The basis is 102 with the spot price at 8240, indicating the spot price is higher than the futures price. On September 22, the commercial inventory was 1.18 million tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% year - on - year. The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. The short positions of the main contract have decreased. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8000 - 8400 [2] - **Palm Oil**: Similar MPOB report data as soybean oil. Entering the production - increase season, palm oil supply will increase. The basis is 40 with the spot price at 8630. On September 22, the port inventory was 580,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous period and down 34.1% year - on - year. The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. The short positions of the main contract have decreased. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8400 - 8800 [3] - **Rapeseed Oil**: Also based on the same MPOB report. Entering the production - increase season, palm oil supply will increase. The basis is 323 with the spot price at 9730. On September 22, the commercial inventory was 560,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% year - on - year. The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. The long positions of the main contract have decreased. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9200 - 9600 [4] Recent利多利空Analysis - **利多**: The US soybean stock - to - use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply [5] - **利空**: Oil and fat prices are at a relatively high historical level, and domestic oil and fat inventories are continuously accumulating. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5] Supply - Related - Items include soybean oil inventory [6], soybean meal inventory [8], oil mill soybean crushing [10], palm oil inventory [17], rapeseed oil inventory [19], rapeseed inventory [21], and domestic total oil and fat inventory [23] Demand - Related - Items include soybean oil apparent consumption [12] and soybean meal apparent consumption [14]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. Sino - US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the price of new US soybeans due to受挫 exports. Malaysian palm oil inventories are neutral, demand has improved, and Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption with a planned B50 implementation in 2026. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and import inventories are stable [2][3][4]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Views - **Soybean Oil**: MPOB report is neutral with less - than - expected production cuts. Current monthly export data of Malaysian palm oil shows a 4% month - on - month increase, and subsequent supply pressure eases as it enters the production - reduction season. The basis indicates that the spot price is higher than the futures price. As of September 22, the commercial inventory is 118 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2 tons and a year - on - year increase of 11.7%. The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average with a downward - sloping 20 - day moving average, and the short positions of the main contract are increasing. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7900 - 8300 [2]. - **Palm Oil**: MPOB report is neutral with less - than - expected production cuts. Current monthly export data of Malaysian palm oil shows a 4% month - on - month increase, and subsequent supply will increase as it enters the production - increase season. The basis is neutral. As of September 22, the port inventory is 58 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1 ton and a year - on - year decrease of 34.1%. The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average with a downward - sloping 20 - day moving average, and the short positions of the main contract are increasing. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8500 - 8900 [3]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: MPOB report is neutral with less - than - expected production cuts. Current monthly export data of Malaysian palm oil shows a 4% month - on - month increase, and subsequent supply will increase as it enters the production - increase season. The basis indicates that the spot price is higher than the futures price. As of September 22, the commercial inventory is 56 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1 ton and a year - on - year increase of 3.2%. The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average with a downward - sloping 20 - day moving average, and the long positions of the main contract are decreasing. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9300 - 9700 [4]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **利多 Factors**: The US soybean stock - to - use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply [5]. - **利空 Factors**: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, and domestic inventories of oils and fats are continuously increasing. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5]. - **Main Logic**: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose [5]. Supply - Related - Supply aspects include soybean oil inventory [6], soybean meal inventory [8], oil mill soybean crushing [10], palm oil inventory [17], rapeseed oil inventory [19], rapeseed inventory [21], and domestic total inventory of oils and fats [23]. Demand - Related - Demand aspects include the apparent consumption of soybean oil [12] and the apparent consumption of soybean meal [14].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of edible oils are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic edible oil supply is stable. Sino-US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the prices of new US soybeans due to export setbacks. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic edible oil fundamentals are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4] - The current main logic revolves around the relatively loose global edible oil fundamentals. The main bullish factor is that the US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. The main bearish factors include the historically high prices of edible oils, continuous inventory accumulation of domestic edible oils, weak macroeconomics, and high expected production of related edible oils [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that in August, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with less-than-expected production cuts. Currently, shipping survey agencies show that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month. Subsequent entry into the production reduction season will reduce the supply pressure of palm oil [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,322, with a basis of 190, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [2] - **Inventory**: On September 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year-on-year [2] - **Market**: The futures price is running below the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is downward [2] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased [2] - **Expectation**: The soybean oil contract Y2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7,900 - 8,300 [2] Daily View - Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral with less-than-expected production cuts. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil has increased by 4% month-on-month. Subsequent entry into the production increase season will increase the supply of palm oil [3] - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 8,870, with a basis of 28, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price [3] - **Inventory**: On September 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year-on-year [3] - **Market**: The futures price is running below the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is downward [3] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main palm oil contract have increased [3] - **Expectation**: The palm oil contract P2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,600 - 9,000 [3] Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: The same MPOB report situation as above. Subsequent entry into the production increase season will increase the supply of palm oil [4] - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9,905, with a basis of 380, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [4] - **Inventory**: On September 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year-on-year [4] - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [4] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have increased [4] - **Expectation**: The rapeseed oil contract OI2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,300 - 9,700 [4] Supply - **Imported Soybean Inventory**: Related to the supply of edible oils, but specific data and analysis are not detailed in the text [6] - **Soybean Oil Inventory**: The inventory situation on September 22 is mentioned in the daily view of soybean oil [2] - **Soybean Meal Inventory**: There are graphs showing the inventory from 2015 - 2025, but specific data analysis is not provided [9][10] - **Oil Mill Soybean Crushing**: There are graphs showing the situation from 2015 - 2025, but specific data analysis is not provided [11][12] - **Palm Oil Inventory**: The inventory situation on September 22 is mentioned in the daily view of palm oil [3] - **Rapeseed Oil Inventory**: The inventory situation on September 22 is mentioned in the daily view of rapeseed oil [4] - **Rapeseed Inventory**: There are graphs showing the inventory from 2015 - 2025, but specific data analysis is not provided [21][22] - **Domestic Total Edible Oil Inventory**: There are graphs showing the inventory from 2015 - 2019, but specific data analysis is not provided [23][24] Demand - **Soybean Oil Apparent Consumption**: There are graphs showing the consumption from 2015 - 2025, but specific data analysis is not provided [13][14] - **Soybean Meal Apparent Consumption**: There are graphs showing the consumption from 2015 - 2025, but specific data analysis is not provided [15][16]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of edible oils are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic edible oil supply is stable. The tense Sino - US relations have put pressure on the price of new US soybeans due to受挫 exports. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and the demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic edible oil fundamentals are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4]. - The main logic revolves around the relatively loose global edible oil fundamentals. The main risk is the El Nino weather [5]. 3. Summary by Oil Types Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil in August decreased by 9.8% month - on - month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, and the production cut is less than expected. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month shows a 4% month - on - month increase, and the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease as it enters the production - cut season. The overall view is neutral [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8432, with a basis of 180, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish [2]. - **Inventory**: On August 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from the previous period and a 11.7% year - on - year increase, which is bearish [2]. - **Market**: The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish [2]. - **Main positions**: The short positions of the main soybean oil contract have decreased, which is bearish [2]. - **Expectation**: The soybean oil contract Y2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8000 - 8500 [2]. Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral with less - than - expected production cuts. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month shows a 4% month - on - month increase, and the supply will increase as it enters the production - increase season. The overall view is neutral [3]. - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 9362, with a basis of - 40, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price, which is bearish [3]. - **Inventory**: On August 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period and a 34.1% year - on - year decrease, which is bullish [3]. - **Market**: The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish [3]. - **Main positions**: The long positions of the main palm oil contract have decreased, which is bullish [3]. - **Expectation**: The palm oil contract P2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9100 - 9500 [3]. Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report is neutral with less - than - expected production cuts. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month shows a 4% month - on - month increase, and the supply will increase as it enters the production - increase season. The overall view is neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10153, with a basis of 221, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: On August 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period and a 3.2% year - on - year increase, which is bearish [4]. - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is bullish [4]. - **Main positions**: The long positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have decreased, which is bullish [4]. - **Expectation**: The rapeseed oil contract OI2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9800 - 10200 [4]. 4. Recent利多 and利空 Analysis - **利多**: The US soybean stock - to - use ratio remains around 4%, indicating a tight supply. There is a tremor season for palm oil [5]. - **利空**: The prices of edible oils are at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic edible oil inventory is continuously increasing. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related edible oils is high [5].