证券代码：839979 每日观点 豆油 1.基本面：MPOB报告显示，MPOB月报显示马棕12月产量环比减少5.46%至182.98万吨，出口环比增加 8.55%至131.65万吨，月末库存环比增加7.59%至305.06万吨。报告整体稍偏空，库存数据超预期。目前 船调机构显示1月目前马棕出口数据环比增加29%，后续进入减产季，棕榈油供应上压力减小。中性 2.基差：豆油现货8460，基差200，现货升水期货。偏多 3.库存：1月9日豆油商业库存102万吨，前108万吨，环比-6万吨，同比+14.7% 。偏空 4.盘面：期价运行在20日均线上，20日均线朝下。中性 5.主力持仓：豆油主力多减。偏多 6.预期：油脂价格震荡整理，国内基本面宽松，国内油脂供应稳定。中美关系僵持，美豆新豆出口受挫， 价格承压。马棕库存偏中性，需求有所好转，印尼B40促进国内消费，26年预计实施B50计划。国内油脂 基本面偏中性，进口库存稳定。豆油Y2605：8100-8500附近区间震荡 每日观点 棕榈油 油脂早报 2026-03-03投资咨询部 分析师: 王明伟 从业资格号： F0283029 投资咨询号： Z0010442 TEL ...

分析师: 王明伟 从业资格号： F0283029 投资咨询号： Z0010442 TEL: 0575-85226759 证券代码：839979 油脂早报 2026-03-02投资咨询部 每日观点 豆油 1.基本面：MPOB报告显示，MPOB月报显示马棕12月产量环比减少5.46%至182.98万吨，出口环比增加 8.55%至131.65万吨，月末库存环比增加7.59%至305.06万吨。报告整体稍偏空，库存数据超预期。目前 船调机构显示1月目前马棕出口数据环比增加29%，后续进入减产季，棕榈油供应上压力减小。中性 2.基差：豆油现货8440，基差214，现货升水期货。偏多 3.库存：1月9日豆油商业库存102万吨，前108万吨，环比-6万吨，同比+14.7% 。偏空 4.盘面：期价运行在20日均线上，20日均线朝下。中性 5.主力持仓：豆油主力多减。偏多 6.预期：油脂价格震荡整理，国内基本面宽松，国内油脂供应稳定。中美关系僵持，美豆新豆出口受挫， 价格承压。马棕库存偏中性，需求有所好转，印尼B40促进国内消费，26年预计实施B50计划。国内油脂 基本面偏中性，进口库存稳定。豆油Y2605：8100-8500 ...

油脂早报 2026-02-27投资咨询部 分析师: 王明伟 从业资格号： F0283029 投资咨询号： Z0010442 TEL: 0575-85226759 每日观点 豆油 证券代码：839979 菜籽油 1.基本面：MPOB报告显示，MPOB月报显示马棕12月产量环比减少5.46%至182.98万吨，出口环比增加 8.55%至131.65万吨，月末库存环比增加7.59%至305.06万吨。报告整体稍偏空，库存数据超预期。目前 船调机构显示1月目前马棕出口数据环比增加29%，后续进入减产季，棕榈油供应上压力减小。中性 2.基差：菜籽油现货9860，基差675，现货升水期货。偏多 3.库存：1月9日菜籽油商业库存25万吨，前值27万吨，环比-2万吨，同比-44%。偏多 4.盘面：期价运行在20日均线上，20日均线朝下。中性 5.主力持仓：菜籽油主力空减。偏空 6.预期：油脂价格震荡整理，国内基本面宽松，国内油脂供应稳定。中美关系僵持，美豆新豆出口受挫， 价格承压。马棕库存偏中性，需求有所好转，印尼B40促进国内消费，26年预计实施B50计划。国内油脂 基本面偏中性，进口库存稳定。菜籽油OI2605：9000 ...

油脂早报 2026-02-26投资咨询部 分析师: 王明伟 从业资格号： F0283029 投资咨询号： Z0010442 TEL: 0575-85226759 每日观点 豆油 1.基本面：MPOB报告显示，MPOB月报显示马棕12月产量环比减少5.46%至182.98万吨，出口环比增加 8.55%至131.65万吨，月末库存环比增加7.59%至305.06万吨。报告整体稍偏空，库存数据超预期。目前 船调机构显示1月目前马棕出口数据环比增加29%，后续进入减产季，棕榈油供应上压力减小。中性 2.基差：豆油现货8470，基差242，现货升水期货。偏多 3.库存：1月9日豆油商业库存102万吨，前108万吨，环比-6万吨，同比+14.7% 。偏空 4.盘面：期价运行在20日均线上，20日均线朝下。中性 5.主力持仓：豆油主力多增。偏多 6.预期：油脂价格震荡整理，国内基本面宽松，国内油脂供应稳定。中美关系僵持，美豆新豆出口受挫， 价格承压。马棕库存偏中性，需求有所好转，印尼B40促进国内消费，26年预计实施B50计划。国内油脂 基本面偏中性，进口库存稳定。豆油Y2605：8000-8400附近区间震荡 证券代码： ...

证券代码：839979 油脂早报 2026-02-25投资咨询部 分析师: 王明伟 从业资格号： F0283029 投资咨询号： Z0010442 TEL: 0575-85226759 每日观点 豆油 1.基本面：MPOB报告显示，MPOB月报显示马棕12月产量环比减少5.46%至182.98万吨，出口环比增加 8.55%至131.65万吨，月末库存环比增加7.59%至305.06万吨。报告整体稍偏空，库存数据超预期。目前 船调机构显示1月目前马棕出口数据环比增加29%，后续进入减产季，棕榈油供应上压力减小。中性 2.基差：豆油现货8430，基差290，现货升水期货。偏多 3.库存：1月9日豆油商业库存102万吨，前108万吨，环比-6万吨，同比+14.7% 。偏空 4.盘面：期价运行在20日均线下，20日均线朝下。偏空 5.主力持仓：豆油主力多增。偏多 6.预期：油脂价格震荡整理，国内基本面宽松，国内油脂供应稳定。中美关系僵持，美豆新豆出口受挫， 价格承压。马棕库存偏中性，需求有所好转，印尼B40促进国内消费，26年预计实施B50计划。国内油脂 基本面偏中性，进口库存稳定。豆油Y2605：8000-8400 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall situation of the oil and fat market shows that prices are in a state of shock consolidation. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the supply is stable. The Sino - US relationship is tense, which puts pressure on the price of US soybeans. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and demand is improving. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic oil and fat fundamentals are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4] - The current main logic of the market revolves around the relatively loose global oil and fat fundamentals. There are also some factors affecting the market, with the US soybean inventory - to - sales ratio remaining around 4%, indicating tight supply, while the high historical price of oil and fat, continuous accumulation of domestic oil and fat inventory, weak macro - economy, and high expected production of relevant oils and fats are the negative factors [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - **Soybean - related supply**: - On January 9, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1020000 tons, a decrease of 60000 tons from the previous period and an increase of 14.7% year - on - year [2] - Information on soybean meal inventory is mentioned, but no specific data is provided [8] - Information on oil - mill soybean crushing is mentioned, but no specific data is provided [10] - **Palm oil supply**: - In December, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 5.46% month - on - month to 1.8298 million tons, exports increased by 8.55% month - on - month to 1.3165 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory increased by 7.59% month - on - month to 3.0506 million tons. As of January, the export data of Malaysian palm oil increased by 29% month - on - month. On January 9, the port inventory of palm oil was 736000 tons, an increase of 2200 tons from the previous value and an increase of 46% year - on - year [2][3][4] - **Rapeseed - related supply**: - On January 9, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 250000 tons, a decrease of 20000 tons from the previous value and a decrease of 44% year - on - year [4] - Information on rapeseed inventory is mentioned, but no specific data is provided [21] - **Total domestic oil and fat supply**: Information on total domestic oil and fat inventory is mentioned, but no specific data is provided [23] Demand - **Soybean - related demand**: - Information on the apparent consumption of soybean oil is mentioned, but no specific data is provided [12] - Information on the apparent consumption of soybean meal is mentioned, but no specific data is provided [14] Price Forecast - Soybean oil Y2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7900 - 8300 [2] - Palm oil P2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8600 - 9000 [3] - Rapeseed oil OI2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8900 - 9300 [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The overall situation of the oil and fat market is that prices are oscillating. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic oil and fat supply is stable. The Sino - US relationship is tense, which has put pressure on the price of US soybeans. The palm oil inventory in Malaysia is neutral, and the demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic oil and fat fundamentals are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4] Summary According to Related Catalogs Daily Views - Soybean Oil - Fundamental: MPOB report shows that Malaysia's palm oil production in December decreased by 5.46% month - on - month to 1.8298 million tons, exports increased by 8.55% month - on - month to 1.3165 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory increased by 7.59% month - on - month to 3.0506 million tons. The report is slightly bearish. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil in January shows a 29% month - on - month increase, and the supply pressure will decrease in the subsequent production - reduction season. It is neutral [2] - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8410, the basis is 300, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is bullish [2] - Inventory: On January 9, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.02 million tons, down 60,000 tons from the previous 1.08 million tons, a month - on - month decrease, and up 14.7% year - on - year. It is bearish [2] - Disk: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. It is bearish [2] - Main position: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract are decreasing. It is bullish [2] - Expectation: The price of soybean oil Y2605 will oscillate in the range of 7900 - 8300 [2] Daily Views - Palm Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is slightly bearish, and the supply pressure will decrease in the subsequent production - reduction season. It is neutral [3] - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 8910, the basis is 4, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is neutral [3] - Inventory: On January 9, the port inventory of palm oil was 736,000 tons, up 2,200 tons from the previous 733,800 tons, a month - on - month increase, and up 46% year - on - year. It is bearish [3] - Disk: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. It is neutral [3] - Main position: The short positions of the main palm oil contract are increasing. It is bearish [3] - Expectation: The price of palm oil P2605 will oscillate in the range of 8700 - 9100 [3] Daily Views - Rapeseed Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is slightly bearish, and the supply pressure will decrease in the subsequent production - reduction season. It is neutral [4] - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9920, the basis is 789, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is bullish [4] - Inventory: On January 9, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 250,000 tons, down 20,000 tons from the previous 270,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease, and down 44% year - on - year. It is bullish [4] - Disk: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. It is neutral [4] - Main position: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract are decreasing. It is bearish [4] - Expectation: The price of rapeseed oil OI2605 will oscillate in the range of 8900 - 9300 [4] Recent利多利空Analysis - Bullish factors: The US soybean stock - to - sales ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. There is a tremor season for palm oil [5] - Bearish factors: The oil and fat prices are at a relatively high level historically, and the domestic oil and fat inventory has been continuously accumulating. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected output of related oils and fats is high [5] - Main logic: The global oil and fat fundamentals are relatively loose [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose with stable domestic oil and fat supply. Sino - US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the price of new US soybeans due to受挫 exports. Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral with improving demand. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic oil and fat fundamentals are neutral with stable import inventory. [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in December decreased 5.46% month - on - month to 1829800 tons, exports increased 8.55% month - on - month to 1316500 tons, and end - of - month inventory increased 7.59% month - on - month to 3050600 tons. The report is slightly bearish with inventory data exceeding expectations. Current shipping survey agencies show that Malaysian palm oil export data in January increased 29% month - on - month, and the supply pressure will decrease in the subsequent production - reducing season. [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8400, with a basis of 302, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. [2] - **Inventory**: On January 9th, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.02 million tons, down 60,000 tons from the previous 1.08 million tons, a month - on - month decrease, but up 14.7% year - on - year. [2] - **Market Chart**: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, while the 20 - day moving average is upward. [2] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract decreased. [2] - **Expectation**: The soybean oil Y2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7900 - 8300. [2] 3.2 Daily View - Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report on Malaysian palm oil in December is slightly bearish, but the supply pressure will decrease in the subsequent production - reducing season with a 29% month - on - month increase in January export data. [3] - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 8960, with a basis of 20, indicating the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. [3] - **Inventory**: On January 9th, the port inventory of palm oil was 736,000 tons, up 2200 tons from the previous 733,800 tons, a month - on - month increase and up 46% year - on - year. [3] - **Market Chart**: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, while the 20 - day moving average is upward. [3] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main palm oil contract turned to short positions. [3] - **Expectation**: The palm oil P2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8700 - 9100. [3] 3.3 Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report on Malaysian palm oil in December is slightly bearish, and the supply pressure will decrease in the subsequent production - reducing season with a 29% month - on - month increase in January export data. [4] - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9900, with a basis of 804, indicating the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. [4] - **Inventory**: On January 9th, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 250,000 tons, down 20,000 tons from the previous 270,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease and down 44% year - on - year. [4] - **Market Chart**: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, while the 20 - day moving average is upward. [4] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract decreased. [4] - **Expectation**: The rapeseed oil OI2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8900 - 9300. [4] 3.4 Recent Bullish and Bearish Analysis - **Bullish Factors**: The US soybean stock - to - sales ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. [5] - **Bearish Factors**: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, and domestic oil and fat inventories are continuously accumulating. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high. [5] - **Main Logic**: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose. [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The overall MPOB report for December is slightly bearish, with inventory data exceeding expectations. However, the current shipping survey institutions show a 29% month-on-month increase in Malaysian palm oil export data in January, and as the subsequent production season approaches, the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease [2][3][4]. - The prices of edible oils are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic edible oil supply is stable. Sino-US relations are tense, which has affected the export of new US soybeans and put pressure on prices. Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic edible oil fundamentals are neutral, and import inventory is stable [2][3][4]. - The main logic currently revolves around the relatively loose global edible oil fundamentals. The main bullish factor is that the US soybean stock-to-sales ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. The main bearish factors are that edible oil prices are at a relatively high historical level, domestic edible oil inventories are continuously increasing, the macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related edible oils is high [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - **Soybean Oil Inventory**: On January 9th, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1020000 tons, a decrease of 60000 tons from the previous period and a year - on - year increase of 14.7% [2]. - **Palm Oil Inventory**: On January 9th, the port inventory of palm oil was 736000 tons, an increase of 2200 tons from the previous value and a year - on - year increase of 46% [3]. - **Rapeseed Oil Inventory**: On January 9th, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 250000 tons, a decrease of 20000 tons from the previous value and a year - on - year decrease of 44% [4]. - **Rapeseed Inventory**: Not provided with specific data. - **Domestic Total Edible Oil Inventory**: Not provided with specific data. - **Soybean Meal Inventory**: Not provided with specific data. - **Oil Mill Soybean Crushing**: Not provided with specific data. Demand - **Soybean Oil Apparent Consumption**: Not provided with specific data. - **Soybean Meal Apparent Consumption**: Not provided with specific data.

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints - The overall situation of the MPOB report for Malaysian palm oil in December is slightly bearish, with inventory data exceeding expectations. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil in January shows a 29% month - on - month increase, and as it enters the production - reduction season, the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease [2][3][4]. - The prices of oils and fats are in a range - bound consolidation. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. Sino - US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the price of new US soybeans for export. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and the demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4]. - The current main logic is that the global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose. The main risk point is the El Niño weather [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - On January 9, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1020000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 60000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 14.7% [2]. - The inventory of palm oil ports on January 9 was 736000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2200 tons and a year - on - year increase of 46% [3]. - The commercial inventory of rapeseed oil on January 9 was 250000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 44% [4]. - There are also contents about soybean meal inventory, oil mill soybean crushing, rapeseed inventory, and total domestic oil and fat inventory, but specific data are not detailed in the current content [8][10][21][23]. Demand - There are contents about the apparent consumption of soybean oil and soybean meal, but specific data are not detailed in the current content [12][14]. Price Expectations - The price of soybean oil Y2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7900 - 8300 [2]. - The price of palm oil P2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8800 - 9200 [3]. - The price of rapeseed oil OI2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9000 - 9400 [4]. Other Factors - Bullish factors: The US soybean stock - to - use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply [5]. - Bearish factors: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, domestic oil and fat inventories are continuously increasing, the macro - economy is weak, and the expected output of relevant oils and fats is high [5].