Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The overall trend of oil prices is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic oil supply is stable. Sino-US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the price of new US soybeans due to受挫 exports. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and the demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The soaring international crude oil price drives up the oil price. The domestic oil fundamentals are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that in December, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 5.46% month-on-month to 1.8298 million tons, exports increased by 8.55% month-on-month to 1.3165 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory increased by 7.59% month-on-month to 3.0506 million tons. The report is slightly bearish, and the inventory data exceeded expectations. Currently, the shipping survey agency shows that the export data of Malaysian palm oil in January has increased by 29% month-on-month. Entering the production - reduction season, the supply pressure of palm oil decreases. It is neutral [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8860, with a basis of 320, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is bullish [2] - **Inventory**: On January 9th, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.02 million tons, compared with 1.08 million tons previously, a month - on - month decrease of 60,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 14.7%. It is bearish [2] - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. It is bullish [2] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract decreased. It is bullish [2] - **Expectation**: The soybean oil Y2605 is expected to oscillate in the range of 8400 - 8800 [2] Daily View - Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is slightly bearish, and the inventory data exceeded expectations. The export data in January has increased by 29% month-on-month, and the supply pressure will decrease in the production - reduction season. It is neutral [3] - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 9860, with a basis of 168, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price. It is bearish [3] - **Inventory**: On January 9th, the port inventory of palm oil was 736,000 tons, compared with 733,800 tons previously, a month - on - month increase of 2200 tons and a year - on - year increase of 46%. It is bearish [3] - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. It is bullish [3] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main palm oil contract increased. It is bearish [3] - **Expectation**: The palm oil P2605 is expected to oscillate in the range of 9600 - 10000 [3] Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report is slightly bearish, and the inventory data exceeded expectations. The export data in January has increased by 29% month-on-month, and the supply pressure will decrease in the production - reduction season. It is neutral [4] - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10320, with a basis of 540, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is bullish [4] - **Inventory**: On January 9th, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 250,000 tons, compared with 270,000 tons previously, a month - on - month decrease of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 44%. It is bullish [4] - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. It is bullish [4] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract increased. It is bearish [4] - **Expectation**: The rapeseed oil OI2605 is expected to oscillate in the range of 9700 - 10100 [4] Recent Bullish and Bearish Analysis - **Bullish Factors**: The US soybean stock - to - sales ratio remains around 4%, indicating a tight supply. There is a tremor season for palm oil [5] - **Bearish Factors**: The oil prices are at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic oil inventory has been continuously accumulating. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils is high [5] - **Main Logic**: The global oil fundamentals are relatively loose [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The overall trend of oil prices is expected to be oscillating and slightly bullish. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic oil supply is stable. Sino-US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the price of new US soybeans for export. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and the demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The soaring international crude oil price drives up the oil price. The domestic oil fundamentals are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Viewpoints Soybean Oil - Fundamental: The MPOB report shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil in December decreased by 5.46% month-on-month to 1.8298 million tons, exports increased by 8.55% month-on-month to 1.3165 million tons, and the ending inventory increased by 7.59% month-on-month to 3.0506 million tons. The report is slightly bearish, and the inventory data exceeded expectations. Currently, the shipping survey agency shows that the export data of Malaysian palm oil in January has increased by 29% month-on-month. Entering the production reduction season, the supply pressure of palm oil decreases. It is neutral [2] - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,860, with a basis of 170, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is bullish [2] - Inventory: On January 9, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.02 million tons, compared with 1.08 million tons previously, a month-on-month decrease of 60,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 14.7%. It is bearish [2] - Market: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. It is bullish [2] - Main Position: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have decreased. It is bullish [2] - Expectation: The price of soybean oil Y2605 is expected to oscillate in the range of 8,600 - 8,900 [2] Palm Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is slightly bearish, but the subsequent supply pressure decreases. It is neutral [3] - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 9,700, with a basis of 68, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price. It is bearish [3] - Inventory: On January 9, the port inventory of palm oil was 736,000 tons, compared with 733,800 tons previously, a month-on-month increase of 2,200 tons and a year-on-year increase of 46%. It is bearish [3] - Market: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. It is bullish [3] - Main Position: The short positions of the main palm oil contract have increased. It is bearish [3] - Expectation: The price of palm oil P2605 is expected to oscillate in the range of 9,700 - 10,100 [3] Rapeseed Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is slightly bearish, and the subsequent supply pressure decreases. It is neutral [4] - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10,300, with a basis of 479, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is bullish [4] - Inventory: On January 9, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 250,000 tons, compared with 270,000 tons previously, a month-on-month decrease of 20,000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 44%. It is bullish [4] - Market: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. It is bullish [4] - Main Position: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have increased. It is bearish [4] - Expectation: The price of rapeseed oil OI2605 is expected to oscillate in the range of 9,700 - 10,100 [4] Recent利多利空Analysis - Bullish factors: The US soybean stock-to-sales ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. The palm oil production season is approaching [5] - Bearish factors: The oil prices are at a relatively high level historically, and the domestic oil inventory is continuously increasing. The macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related oils is high [5] - Main logic: The global oil fundamentals are relatively loose [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall situation of the oil and fat market is that prices are oscillating and the domestic fundamentals are loose with stable supply. The relationship between China and the US is tense, which puts pressure on the price of US soybeans. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic oil and fat fundamentals are neutral with stable import inventory [2][3][4]. - The main logic currently revolves around the relatively loose global oil and fat fundamentals. The main risk is the El Niño weather [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that in December, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 5.46% month - on - month to 1.8298 million tons, exports increased by 8.55% to 1.3165 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory increased by 7.59% to 3.0506 million tons. The report is slightly bearish. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil in January shows a 29% month - on - month increase, and the supply pressure will decrease in the subsequent production - reduction season. Overall, it's neutral [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8860, with a basis of 228, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It's bullish [2]. - **Inventory**: On January 9th, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.02 million tons, a decrease of 60,000 tons from the previous 1.08 million tons, and a year - on - year increase of 14.7%. It's bearish [2]. - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. It's bullish [2]. - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract increased. It's bullish [2]. - **Expectation**: The price of soybean oil (Y2605) will oscillate in the range of 8500 - 8900 [2]. Daily View - Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is slightly bearish, but the supply pressure will decrease in the production - reduction season. It's neutral [3]. - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 9700, with a basis of 16, indicating a slight premium of the spot price to the futures price. It's neutral [3]. - **Inventory**: On January 9th, the port inventory of palm oil was 736,000 tons, an increase of 2200 tons from the previous value, and a year - on - year increase of 46%. It's bearish [3]. - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. It's bullish [3]. - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main palm oil contract decreased. It's bearish [3]. - **Expectation**: The price of palm oil (P2605) will oscillate in the range of 9600 - 10000 [3]. Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to the above two, the MPOB report is slightly bearish, and the supply pressure will decrease in the production - reduction season. It's neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10300, with a basis of 531, indicating a significant premium of the spot price to the futures price. It's bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: On January 9th, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 250,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons from the previous value, and a year - on - year decrease of 44%. It's bullish [4]. - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. It's bullish [4]. - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract decreased. It's bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The price of rapeseed oil (OI2605) will oscillate in the range of 9700 - 10100 [4]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **Likely**: The US soybean stock - to - sales ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. The palm oil production season is approaching [5]. - **Unlikely**: The oil and fat prices are at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic oil and fat inventory is continuously increasing. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The overall situation of the oil and fat market is that prices are oscillating and consolidating, with a relatively neutral domestic fundamental situation and stable domestic oil and fat supply. The Sino - US relationship is tense, which puts pressure on the price of US soybeans. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026 [2][3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Viewpoints Soybean Oil - Fundamental: The MPOB report shows that in December, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 5.46% month - on - month to 1.8298 million tons, exports increased by 8.55% month - on - month to 1.3165 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory increased by 7.59% month - on - month to 3.0506 million tons. The report is slightly bearish, and the inventory data exceeded expectations. Currently, the shipping survey agency shows that the export data of Malaysian palm oil in January has increased by 29% month - on - month, and the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease in the subsequent production - reduction season. It is neutral [2] - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8800, the basis is 230, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is bullish [2] - Inventory: On January 9, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.02 million tons, compared with 1.08 million tons previously, a month - on - month decrease of 60,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 14.7%. It is bearish [2] - Disk: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. It is bullish [2] - Main position: The long position of the soybean oil main contract has increased. It is bullish [2] - Expectation: The price of soybean oil Y2605 will oscillate in the range of 8400 - 8800 [2] Palm Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is slightly bearish, and the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease in the subsequent production - reduction season. It is neutral [3] - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 9540, the basis is 14, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is neutral [3] - Inventory: On January 9, the port inventory of palm oil was 736,000 tons, compared with 733,800 tons previously, a month - on - month increase of 2200 tons and a year - on - year increase of 46%. It is bearish [3] - Disk: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. It is bullish [3] - Main position: The short position of the palm oil main contract has decreased. It is bearish [3] - Expectation: The price of palm oil P2605 will oscillate in the range of 9400 - 9800 [3] Rapeseed Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is slightly bearish, and the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease in the subsequent production - reduction season. It is neutral [4] - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10300, the basis is 522, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is bullish [4] - Inventory: On January 9, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 250,000 tons, compared with 270,000 tons previously, a month - on - month decrease of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 44%. It is bullish [4] - Disk: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. It is bullish [4] - Main position: The short position of the rapeseed oil main contract has increased. It is bearish [4] - Expectation: The price of rapeseed oil OI2605 will oscillate in the range of 9600 - 10000 [4] Recent利多利空Analysis - Bullish factors: The US soybean stock - to - sales ratio remains around 4%, and the supply is tight. There is a tremor season for palm oil [5] - Bearish factors: The price of oils and fats is at a relatively high historical level, the domestic oil and fat inventory has been continuously increasing, the macro - economy is weak, and the expected output of relevant oils and fats is high [5] - Main logic: The global oil and fat fundamental situation is relatively loose [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The overall situation of the oil and fat market is that prices are fluctuating and consolidating. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic oil and fat supply is stable. Sino - US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the price of US soybeans. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic oil and fat fundamentals are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - **Imported soybean inventory**: Information presented in a graph showing trends from 2015 - 2025 [6][8] - **Soybean oil inventory**: Information presented in a graph showing trends from 2015 - 2025 [7][8] - **Soybean meal inventory**: Information presented in a graph showing trends from 2015 - 2025 [9][10] - **Oil mill soybean crushing**: Information presented in a graph showing trends from 2015 - 2025 [11][12] - **Palm oil inventory**: Information presented in a graph showing trends from 2015 - 2025 [17][18] - **Rapeseed oil inventory**: Information presented in a graph showing trends from 2015 - 2025 [19][20] - **Rapeseed inventory**: Information presented in a graph showing trends from 2015 - 2025 [21][22] - **Domestic total oil and fat inventory**: Information presented in a graph showing trends from 2015 - 2019 [23][24] Demand - **Soybean oil apparent consumption**: Information presented in a graph showing trends from 2015 - 2025 [13][14] - **Soybean meal apparent consumption**: Information presented in a graph showing trends from 2015 - 2025 [15][16] Daily Views Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in December decreased by 5.46% month - on - month to 1.8298 million tons, exports increased by 8.55% month - on - month to 1.3165 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory increased by 7.59% month - on - month to 3.0506 million tons. The report is slightly bearish, and the inventory data exceeded expectations. Currently, shipping survey agencies show that the export data of Malaysian palm oil in January has increased by 29% month - on - month, and the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease in the subsequent production - reduction season. Neutral [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 9100, the basis is 428, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. Bullish [2] - **Inventory**: On January 9, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.02 million tons, compared with 1.08 million tons previously, a month - on - month decrease of 60,000 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 14.7%. Bearish [2] - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. Bullish [2] - **Main positions**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract decreased. Bullish [2] - **Expectation**: The price of soybean oil Y2605 will fluctuate in the range of 8500 - 8900 [2] Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is slightly bearish, and the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease in the subsequent production - reduction season. Neutral [3] - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 9750, the basis is 30, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. Neutral [3] - **Inventory**: On January 9, the port inventory of palm oil was 736,000 tons, compared with 733,800 tons previously, a month - on - month increase of 2200 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 46%. Bearish [3] - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. Bullish [3] - **Main positions**: The short positions of the main palm oil contract decreased. Bearish [3] - **Expectation**: The price of palm oil P2605 will fluctuate in the range of 9500 - 9900 [3] Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is slightly bearish, and the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease in the subsequent production - reduction season. Neutral [4] - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10520, the basis is 566, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. Bullish [4] - **Inventory**: On January 9, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 250,000 tons, compared with 270,000 tons previously, a month - on - month decrease of 20,000 tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 44%. Bullish [4] - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. Bullish [4] - **Main positions**: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract increased. Bearish [4] - **Expectation**: The price of rapeseed oil OI2605 will fluctuate in the range of 9800 - 10200 [4] Recent利多利空Analysis - **利多**: The US soybean stock - to - sales ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. The palm oil tremor season [5] - **利空**: The oil and fat prices are at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic oil and fat inventory is continuously increasing. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5] - **Main logic**: The global oil and fat fundamentals are relatively loose [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The overall situation of the oil and fat market is that prices are in a state of shock consolidation, with a relatively neutral domestic fundamental situation and stable domestic oil and fat supply. Sino - US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the price of US soybeans. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026 [2][3][4] - The main logic of the current market revolves around the relatively loose global oil and fat fundamentals. There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include the tight supply of US soybeans, while negative factors include high historical oil and fat prices, continuous inventory accumulation of domestic oils and fats, weak macro - economy, and high expected production of related oils and fats [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - **Soybean - related supply** - On January 9, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1020000 tons, a decrease of 60000 tons from the previous period and an increase of 14.7% year - on - year [2] - The inventory of soybean meal is mentioned but no specific data is provided [8] - The oil mill's soybean crushing is mentioned but no specific data is provided [10] - **Palm oil supply** - On January 9, the port inventory of palm oil was 736000 tons, an increase of 2200 tons from the previous value and an increase of 46% year - on - year [3] - **Rapeseed - related supply** - On January 9, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 250000 tons, a decrease of 20000 tons from the previous value and a decrease of 44% year - on - year [4] - The inventory of rapeseed is mentioned but no specific data is provided [21] - **Total domestic oil and fat supply** - The total domestic oil and fat inventory is mentioned but no specific data is provided [23] Demand - **Soybean - related demand** - The apparent consumption of soybean oil is mentioned but no specific data is provided [12] - The apparent consumption of soybean meal is mentioned but no specific data is provided [14] Price Forecast - Soybean oil Y2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8200 - 8600 [2] - Palm oil P2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8800 - 9200 [3] - Rapeseed oil OI2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9300 - 9700 [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The overall situation of the oil and fat market is that prices are in a state of shock consolidation, with a relatively neutral domestic fundamental situation and stable domestic oil and fat supply. The Sino - US relationship is tense, which puts pressure on the price of US soybeans. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026 [2][3][4] - The expected price ranges for different oils are: soybean oil Y2605 between 8200 - 8600, palm oil P2605 between 8900 - 9300, and rapeseed oil OI2605 between 9400 - 9800 [2][3][4] Summary by Directory Supply - **Soybean oil inventory**: On January 9th, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1020000 tons, a decrease of 60000 tons from the previous period and an increase of 14.7% year - on - year [2] - **Soybean meal inventory**: Not detailed in the report - **Oil mill soybean crushing**: Not detailed in the report - **Palm oil inventory**: On January 9th, the port inventory of palm oil was 736000 tons, an increase of 2200 tons from the previous value and an increase of 46% year - on - year [3] - **Rapeseed oil inventory**: On January 9th, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 250000 tons, a decrease of 20000 tons from the previous value and a decrease of 44% year - on - year [4] - **Rapeseed inventory**: Not detailed in the report - **Total domestic oil and fat inventory**: Not detailed in the report Demand - **Soybean oil apparent consumption**: Not detailed in the report - **Soybean meal apparent consumption**: Not detailed in the report Recent利多利空Analysis - **Likely**: The US soybean stock - to - sales ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. The palm oil tremor season [5] - **Negative**: Oil and fat prices are at a relatively high historical level, and domestic oil and fat inventories are continuously accumulating. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected output of related oils and fats is high [5] - **Main logic**: The global oil and fat fundamental situation is relatively loose [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The overall situation of the oil and fat market is that prices are in a state of shock consolidation, with a relatively neutral domestic fundamentals and stable import inventories. The MPOB report shows that the palm oil situation in December last year was slightly bearish, but the export data in January increased, and the supply pressure will decrease in the subsequent production - reduction season. The US - China relationship is tense, which puts pressure on the price of US soybeans. Indonesia's B40 promotes domestic consumption, and it is expected to implement the B50 plan in 2026 [2][3][4] Summary by Directory Daily View - Soybean Oil - Fundamental: The MPOB report shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil in December decreased by 5.46% month - on - month to 1.8298 million tons, exports increased by 8.55% month - on - month to 1.3165 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory increased by 7.59% month - on - month to 3.0506 million tons. The current shipping survey agency shows that the export data of Malaysian palm oil in January increased by 29% month - on - month, and the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease in the subsequent production - reduction season. It is neutral [2] - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8460, the basis is 200, and the spot is at a premium to the futures. It is bullish [2] - Inventory: On January 9, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.02 million tons, the previous value was 1.08 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 60,000 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 14.7%. It is bearish [2] - Disk: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. It is neutral [2] - Main position: The long position of the main soybean oil contract decreased. It is bullish [2] - Expectation: The price of soybean oil Y2605 will fluctuate in the range of 8100 - 8500 [2] Daily View - Palm Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report situation is the same, and the supply pressure will decrease in the subsequent production - reduction season. It is neutral [3] - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 8880, the basis is - 18, and the spot is at a discount to the futures. It is neutral [3] - Inventory: On January 9, the port inventory of palm oil was 736,000 tons, the previous value was 733,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2200 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 46%. It is bearish [3] - Disk: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. It is bearish [3] - Main position: The short position of the main palm oil contract decreased. It is bearish [3] - Expectation: The price of palm oil P2605 will fluctuate in the range of 8800 - 9200 [3] Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - Fundamental: The MPOB report situation is the same as above, and the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease in the subsequent production - reduction season. It is neutral [4] - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9920, the basis is 561, and the spot is at a premium to the futures. It is bullish [4] - Inventory: On January 9, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 250,000 tons, the previous value was 270,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20,000 tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 44%. It is bullish [4] - Disk: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. It is neutral [4] - Main position: The short position of the main rapeseed oil contract increased. It is bearish [4] - Expectation: The price of rapeseed oil OI2605 will fluctuate in the range of 9200 - 9600 [4] Recent利多利空Analysis - Bullish factors: The US soybean inventory - to - sales ratio remains around 4%, and the supply is tight. There is a tremor season for palm oil [5] - Bearish factors: The price of oils and fats is at a relatively high level in history, the domestic oil and fat inventory continues to accumulate, the macro - economy is weak, and the expected output of relevant oils and fats is high [5] - Current main logic: The global oil and fat fundamentals are relatively loose [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. Sino - US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the price of US soybeans. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and the demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4] Summaries by Related Catalogs Daily View - Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil in December decreased by 5.46% month - on - month to 1.8298 million tons, exports increased by 8.55% month - on - month to 1.3165 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory increased by 7.59% month - on - month to 3.0506 million tons. The report is slightly bearish, and the inventory data exceeded expectations. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil in January shows a 29% month - on - month increase, and the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease in the subsequent production - reduction season. It is neutral [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8440, the basis is 214, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is bullish [2] - **Inventory**: On January 9, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.02 million tons, compared with 1.08 million tons previously, a month - on - month decrease of 60,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 14.7%. It is bearish [2] - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. It is neutral [2] - **Main positions**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract decreased. It is bullish [2] - **Expectation**: The price of soybean oil Y2605 will fluctuate in the range of 8100 - 8500 [2] Daily View - Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is slightly bearish, and the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease in the subsequent production - reduction season. It is neutral [3] - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 8770, the basis is - 10, and the spot price is at a discount to the futures price. It is neutral [3] - **Inventory**: On January 9, the port inventory of palm oil was 736,000 tons, compared with 733,800 tons previously, a month - on - month increase of 2200 tons and a year - on - year increase of 46%. It is bearish [3] - **Market**: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. It is bearish [3] - **Main positions**: The short positions of the main palm oil contract increased. It is bearish [3] - **Expectation**: The price of palm oil P2605 will fluctuate in the range of 8700 - 9100 [3] Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is slightly bearish, and the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease in the subsequent production - reduction season. It is neutral [4] - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9860, the basis is 680, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is bullish [4] - **Inventory**: On January 9, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 250,000 tons, compared with 270,000 tons previously, a month - on - month decrease of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 44%. It is bullish [4] - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. It is neutral [4] - **Main positions**: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract increased. It is bearish [4] - **Expectation**: The price of rapeseed oil OI2605 will fluctuate in the range of 9100 - 9500 [4] Recent利多利空Analysis - **利多**: The US soybean stock - to - sales ratio remains around 4%, and the supply is tight. There is a tremor season for palm oil [5] - **利空**: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats continues to accumulate. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5] - **Main logic**: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The overall situation of the oil and fat market is that prices are in a state of shock consolidation, with a relatively neutral domestic fundamental situation and stable domestic oil and fat supplies. The Sino - US relationship is tense, which puts pressure on the price of US soybeans. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is relatively neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026 [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Soybean Oil - Fundamental: The MPOB report shows that in December, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 5.46% month - on - month to 1.8298 million tons, exports increased by 8.55% month - on - month to 1.3165 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory increased by 7.59% month - on - month to 3.0506 million tons. The report is slightly bearish, and the inventory data exceeded expectations. Currently, the shipping survey agency shows that the export data of Malaysian palm oil in January has increased by 29% month - on - month, and the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease in the subsequent production - reduction season [2] - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8420, the basis is 222, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [2] - Inventory: On January 9, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.02 million tons, a decrease of 60,000 tons from the previous 1.08 million tons, and an increase of 14.7% year - on - year [2] - Disk: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [2] - Main Position: The long position of the main soybean oil contract has increased [2] - Expectation: The price of soybean oil Y2605 will fluctuate in the range of 8000 - 8400 [2] Daily View - Palm Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report shows a slightly bearish situation, and the subsequent supply pressure will decrease [3] - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 8700, the basis is - 14, and the spot price is at a discount to the futures price [3] - Inventory: On January 9, the port inventory of palm oil was 736,000 tons, an increase of 2200 tons from the previous 733,800 tons, and an increase of 46% year - on - year [3] - Disk: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [3] - Main Position: The short position of the main palm oil contract has increased [3] - Expectation: The price of palm oil P2605 will fluctuate in the range of 8600 - 9000 [3] Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report shows a slightly bearish situation, and the subsequent supply pressure will decrease [4] - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9860, the basis is 675, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [4] - Inventory: On January 9, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 250,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons from the previous 270,000 tons, and a decrease of 44% year - on - year [4] - Disk: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [4] - Main Position: The short position of the main rapeseed oil contract has decreased [4] - Expectation: The price of rapeseed oil OI2605 will fluctuate in the range of 9000 - 9400 [4] Recent Bullish and Bearish Analysis - Bullish: The US soybean stock - to - sales ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply [5] - Bearish: The price of oil and fat is at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic oil and fat inventory has been continuously accumulating. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oil and fats is high [5] - Main Logic: The global fundamental situation of oil and fat is relatively loose [5] Supply - Related - Soybean oil inventory [6] - Soybean meal inventory [8] - Oil factory soybean crushing [10] - Palm oil inventory [17] - Rapeseed oil inventory [19] - Rapeseed inventory [21] - Total domestic oil and fat inventory [23] Demand - Related - Apparent consumption of soybean oil [12] - Apparent consumption of soybean meal [14]