Report Information - Report Title: Zhengxin Futures Weekly Report on Live Pigs (2025-7-14) [2] - Research Team: Zhengxin Futures Research Institute - Agricultural Products Research Group [2] Investment Rating - Overall Strategy: The long - term trend of the live pig industry in 2025 is in a pressure period, with a forecast of price decline, but policy regulation may shorten the pressure period and slow down the decline. The operation strategy is to dynamically construct a bull spread for the September live pig contract, with an overall rating of "oscillation" [3] - Supply: Rated as "偏多" (Bullish) [3] - Demand: Rated as "偏空" (Bearish) [3] - Profit: Rated as "中性" (Neutral) [3] - Price and Volume: Rated as "中性" (Neutral) [3] Core View - In the first half of 2025, listed pig enterprises showed obvious differentiation in scale expansion. Leading enterprises consolidated their positions, and some enterprises sought breakthroughs through radical expansion or regional deep - cultivation. Cost reduction, efficiency improvement, and refined operation are the keys to survival in the industry [3] - The average weight of commercial pig slaughter in sample breeding enterprises has been decreasing, and the proportion of large - pig slaughter has increased slightly. The leading enterprise, Muyuan, has taken the lead in reducing weight and production capacity in the industry [3] - High - temperature weather and school holidays have a negative impact on pork consumption, which may limit the upward trend of pig prices [3] - The self - breeding and self - raising profit is near the break - even point, and the pig - grain ratio is at the average level in the same period of the past four years. The downward space of futures is limited due to a small discount [3] Section Summary Price and Volume Analysis - **Spot Price**: Analyzes the price and seasonal chart of live pigs in Henan [4][5] - **Basis**: Analyzes the basis of each live pig futures contract [7][8] - **Spread**: Analyzes the spread between each live pig futures contract [10][11] - **Futures Institutional Net Position**: Analyzes the long - short difference and ratio of institutional positions in the September live pig futures contract [13][14] Supply Analysis - **Breeding Sows Inventory**: Analyzes the inventory of breeding sows [16][17] - **Piglet Supply**: Analyzes the price ratio of piglets to live pigs in Henan and the number of newborn piglets [19] - **Live Pig Slaughter**: Analyzes the average weight seasonal chart and slaughter structure of commercial pigs in sample breeding enterprises [22][23] - **Standard - Fat Price Difference**: Analyzes the daily and seasonal charts of the standard - fat price difference [25][26] Demand Analysis - **Live Pig Slaughter**: Analyzes the daily slaughter rate and seasonal profit chart of key live pig slaughter enterprises [27][28] - **Frozen Product Inventory**: Analyzes the storage rate and fresh - meat efficiency of frozen products in key slaughter enterprises, as well as the seasonal chart of the storage rate [30][32] - **Substitutes**: Analyzes the seasonal price ratio of pork to eggs and vegetables [34] Profit Analysis - **Breeding Profit**: Analyzes the profit of self - breeding and self - raising and purchasing piglets for breeding, as well as the seasonal profit chart of self - breeding and self - raising [36][37] - **Pig - Grain Ratio**: Analyzes the pig - grain ratio in large and medium - sized Chinese cities and its seasonal chart [39][40]