Core Insights - Maersk's Q3 2025 earnings exceeded expectations, prompting an upward revision of its full-year profit forecast and global container market growth predictions [1][2] Financial Performance - Q3 2025 revenue was $14.206 billion, a decrease of 9.9% from $15.762 billion in the same period last year [1][2] - Underlying profit for Q3 2025 was $939 million, down 69.7% from $3.097 billion year-over-year [1][2] - Earnings per share were $69, lower than $193 in the previous year but above analysts' expectations of $62 [1] Profit Forecast and Market Growth - The company raised its full-year underlying EBITDA forecast to between $9 billion and $9.5 billion, up from a previous estimate of $8 billion to $9.5 billion [2] - The global container market is now expected to grow approximately 4%, an increase from the prior forecast of 2% to 4% [2] Market Dynamics - Exports from Far East Asia, particularly China, continue to drive robust cargo volume growth [3] - Despite a contraction in cargo volume to North America, especially from China to the U.S., consumer demand has shown surprising resilience [3][4] - Maersk's ability to adjust its profit expectations reflects its strength amid mixed performance from industry peers [3] Operational Resilience - The company has demonstrated considerable resilience to macroeconomic shocks, adapting to complex supply chain needs despite adverse tariff measures [4] - Ongoing disruptions in Red Sea shipping are expected to persist throughout the year, alleviating some global overcapacity issues and boosting freight rates earlier this year [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report provides a weekly outlook on the shipping container market. For the container market, the European line's main contract is expected to show a weak and volatile trend next week. The 10 - contract has broken below 1400 points, with limited further downward space, and a low probability of breaking below 1250 points [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Container Market Transport Price - **航司报价**: Information on the future 6 - week Shanghai - Europe 20GP and 40GP box - type quotes from airlines is mentioned, but no specific data is given [7]. - **期货价格**: The container shipping index futures showed a volatile downward trend last week, with the main contract closing at 1373.6 points. As of August 11, the SCFIS European line index was 2235.48 points, down 2.71% month - on - month, and the US West line index was down 4.25% to 1082.14 points [8]. - **集装箱市场即期运价**: As of August 15, the SCFI composite index dropped to 1460.19 points, down 2% week - on - week. The Shanghai - Europe freight rate fell 7.2% to $1820/TEU; the Shanghai - US West freight rate was $1759/FEU, down 3.5% from last week; the Shanghai - US East freight rate was $2719/FEU, down 2.6% from last week [16]. 3.2 Capacity Supply - **投入运力**: The current global container ship capacity exceeds 32.79 million TEUs, with a year - on - year increase of 7.8%. In June, China's container production reached 23.39 million cubic meters, down 23% year - on - year. As of August 15, Mediterranean Shipping's capacity exceeded 6.7 million TEUs, and the top 3 companies continued to hold more than half of the container shipping market capacity. On the same day, the capacity in Europe, across the Pacific, and across the Atlantic increased by 5.45%, - 0.93%, and 19.83% respectively compared to the same period last year [32][33][43]. - **有效运力**: Information on the punctuality rates of the three major container shipping alliances for receiving, dispatching, arrival, and departure services, as well as port punctuality rates in different regions and the berthing situation of main - line liners in ports, is provided, but no specific analysis is given [44][46][50]. 3.3 Transport Cost - As of August 14, the charter price of Cape - size ships increased by 11% year - on - year to $26,718 per day; the Panamax - type increased by 11% year - on - year to $13,836 per day. In July, China's international seafarers' salaries were relatively flat year - on - year, with senior and ordinary seafarers' salaries increasing by 1.56% and 2.53% respectively [60]. 3.4 Trade Demand - **中国宏观**: In July, China's export amount was $321.8 billion, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%. In the same month, China's exports to the US decreased by 21.67% year - on - year, while exports to the EU increased by 9.24% and to ASEAN increased by 16.59%. As of August 15, the RMB spot exchange rate was 7.1823 (against the US dollar) and 8.3876 (against the euro), up 0.07% and 0.61% respectively compared to the previous month [62]. - **中国外贸情况**: In July, processing trade accounted for 18.01% of China's import and export trade, other trade accounted for 18.52%, and general trade accounted for 63.47%. In the same month, China's exports to ASEAN countries reached $54.6 billion, with a high - level year - on - year growth rate. Exports to Europe and the US were $50 billion and $35.8 billion respectively, and trade with the US showed some recovery [73]. - **欧洲经济及消费**: In July, the eurozone's composite PMI index was 51 points, the manufacturing PMI index was 49.8 points, and the service industry PMI index was 51.2 points. The EU's consumer confidence index was - 14.5, the service industry index was 4.2, and the industrial confidence index was - 10.4. The EU's economic sentiment index was 95.3, down 0.83% year - on - year [74]. - **美国经济及消费**: In July, the University of Michigan's consumer expectation and confidence indices in the US were 57.7 and 61.7 respectively. The PMI data released by the Institute for Supply Management in July showed that the manufacturing PMI decreased to 48, and the manufacturing new orders PMI increased to 47.1 [80]. - **OECD综合领先指标**: The world's major economies still have growth potential, but no specific data analysis is given [84]. 3.5 Dry Bulk Transport Tracking - **干散货运输价格跟踪**: Information on the Far - East Dry Bulk Index (FDI), the Baltic Dry Bulk Index (BDI), and the dry - bulk transport prices of iron ore, coal, and soybeans in the Far East is mentioned, but no specific data is given [94][95][96]. - **出口欧盟干散货货物细分**: Information on the amount and weight statistics of other and main dry - bulk exports to the EU by HS classification is provided, but no specific data is given [99][102].