集装箱产业风险管理日报 2025/09/10 傅小燕（投资咨询证号：Z0002675） 南华研究院投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 EC风险管理策略建议 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 舱位管理 已入手舱位，但运力偏饱满，或订舱货量不佳，旺季不 | 旺，担心运价下跌 | 多 | 为防止损失，可根据企业舱位，做空集运指数期货来 锁定利润 | EC2510 | 卖出 1350~1450 | | 成本管理 船司空班力度加大，或即将进入市场旺季，希望根据订单 | 情况进行订舱 | 空 | 为防止运价上涨而增加运输成本，可以在当前买入集 运指数期货，以提前确定订舱成本 | EC2510 | 买入 1150~1250 | | source： 南华期货 | | | | | | 【核心矛盾】 今日集运指数（欧线）期货早盘开盘后多头抢跑明显，但不敌现货预期疲软，多空胶着，盘整收尾。 截 至收盘，各合约都有不同程度增仓，其中EC2512合约增仓幅度最大，除了反弹的两 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the resilience and growth of China COSCO Shipping Holdings Co., Ltd. in the face of global trade disruptions, showcasing its strategic focus on container shipping and digital supply chain integration [1][2]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 109.099 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.78% - The EBIT was 25.494 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 3.40% - The EBIT margin reached 23.37% - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 17.536 billion yuan [1]. Business Strategy - The company continues to deepen its core container shipping business and digital supply chain operations, enhancing synergy between the two sectors to provide integrated logistics solutions [1]. - As of June 30, 2025, the self-owned container fleet comprised 557 vessels, with a total capacity exceeding 3.4 million TEUs [1]. - The company has demonstrated market sensitivity by dynamically adjusting capacity on key routes, including Far East to Northwest Europe and trans-Pacific routes, while expanding supply to emerging markets [1]. Port and Shipping Coordination - The company has strengthened its collaborative layout in global port hubs, enhancing its integrated service capabilities through effective "mainline + feeder" configurations at key ports like Qianhai and Piraeus [1]. Innovation and Sustainability - China COSCO Shipping is focused on customer needs, driving product innovation across the supply chain and integrating digital and green technologies to build a sustainable competitive advantage [2]. - The company has made significant strides in digital transformation and green low-carbon initiatives, including the order of 42 dual-fuel methanol-powered vessels with a total capacity of 780,000 TEUs [2]. Response to Global Trade Changes - The company is navigating profound adjustments in the global trade landscape, influenced by U.S. trade policies and geopolitical tensions, while also addressing the impacts of technological and green revolutions [2]. - The company aims to enhance its global digital supply chain operations and investment platform through core business upgrades, ecosystem development, and technological innovation [2].

Industry Overview - The demand landscape in the container shipping and shipbuilding industry is increasingly divergent, with Maersk observing strong demand outside the U.S. market while maintaining a cautious stance towards the U.S. due to tariff uncertainties [1] - ICTSI reported no signs of early shipments at its ports, indicating a potential slowdown in activity [1] Company Insights - Maersk has raised its guidance due to strong demand in markets outside North America, contrasting with Ocean Network Express (ONE), which has downgraded its full-year outlook due to reliance on U.S. routes [1] - The logistics managers' index (LMI) indicates high inventory levels influenced by U.S. retail sales and pre-stocking activities, which may affect shipping demand [1] Strategic Factors - The industry is facing challenges from the Red Sea crisis, port congestion, shipbuilding activities, and the implications of Section 301 tariffs, complicating strategic and investment decisions [1] - Ongoing debates regarding the International Maritime Organization (IMO) emission standards are further complicating strategic planning within the industry [1] Stock Recommendations - The company maintains a positive outlook on COSCO Shipping Holdings' H-shares and A-shares, raising target prices to HKD 21 and HKD 24 respectively, and also holds a positive view on Orient Overseas International, increasing its target price to HKD 179, all rated as "Buy" [1]

Core Viewpoint - ONE is facing significant challenges due to declining freight rates and market uncertainty, with a notable drop in net profit for the first quarter of 2025 compared to the previous year [1] Financial Performance - ONE reported a net profit of $86 million for Q1 2025, a substantial decrease from $779 million in the same period last year [1] - Compared to Q1 2025, profits decreased by $223 million [1] - The company has revised its full-year net profit forecast from $1.1 billion to $700 million and revenue expectations from $17.5 billion to $17.1 billion [1] Market Conditions - The overall market environment is not as strong as initially expected, with high uncertainty remaining for the global environment in FY 2025 [1] - Recent trade disputes have complicated market visibility for the second half of the fiscal year [1] - Concerns over the trade tariffs implemented by former President Trump have emerged as a significant worry for the industry [1] Shipping Industry Dynamics - The container shipping industry is expected to continue utilizing the Cape of Good Hope route, which reportedly consumes about 7% of global capacity [1] - Continuous delivery of new ships is anticipated to inject additional capacity into the market [1] - Spot freight rates on the China-US West Coast have plummeted by 59% since June 1, while rates to the US East Coast have dropped by 43% [1] Future Scenarios - The company previously outlined two contrasting market scenarios: one predicting stable business conditions with revenues of $17.5 billion and net profits of $1.1 billion, and another reflecting a challenging year with revenues of $16.5 billion and net profits of only $250 million [2]

Core Viewpoint - China National Foreign Trade Transportation Group (China Foreign Trade) plans to increase its stake in Antong Holdings, aiming to enhance cooperation in container shipping and improve its competitive edge in the logistics sector [1] Group 1: Stake Acquisition - As of the announcement date, China Foreign Trade's subsidiaries hold a total of 0.0039% of Antong Holdings' shares [1] - The company intends to increase its holdings between 300 million yuan (approximately 43 million USD) and 600 million yuan (approximately 86 million USD) over the next 12 months, starting from July 31, 2025 [1] - The maximum purchase price is set at 3.2 yuan per share [1] Group 2: Strategic Implications - The acquisition is expected to facilitate resource complementarity in core areas such as container shipping routes and self-owned containers [1] - This move supports China Foreign Trade's development of a "new type of carrier" business model, aiming to provide comprehensive solutions and standardized products to target market customers [1] - The strategy focuses on actively strengthening supply chain connections to enhance the company's core competitiveness [1]

Core Viewpoint - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly regarding the Strait of Hormuz, are reshaping the global shipping landscape, with a low probability of a complete closure of the strait despite Iranian threats [1][2]. Shipping Market Impact - The oil tanker shipping sector is expected to benefit significantly from the reduction in "dark fleet" capacity, while container shipping will be relatively less affected [1][2]. - The Strait of Hormuz is strategically important for energy transport, with 11% of global maritime trade passing through it, including 34% of maritime oil exports and 30% of liquefied petroleum gas exports [1][2]. Scenarios for Strait Closure - Scenario 1: Military conflict may not disrupt oil flow, and the tanker market will remain stable during the off-peak season in Q2 2025 [2]. - Scenario 2: A decline in Iranian exports could reduce "dark fleet" transport volumes, increasing demand for legitimate tankers [2]. - Scenario 3: Broader risks to oil exports in the Gulf region could create uncertainty in tanker shipping, potentially leading to longer transport distances from the Atlantic to Asia [2]. Comparison with Red Sea Route - The potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz would have a limited impact on container shipping compared to the disruption of the Red Sea route, which reduced global effective capacity by about 10% in H1 2024 [2]. - Only 3% of global container trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz, making its closure less impactful on global container shipping capacity [2].

Core Viewpoint - The temporary trade truce between the US and China has led to a significant surge in shipping demand from China to the US, with container bookings more than doubling in a week, indicating a rebound in trade activity [2][3]. Group 1: Shipping Demand and Pricing - Container bookings from China to US ports surged to approximately 228,000 TEUs, more than doubling from the previous week following the trade agreement [2]. - The Drewry World Container Index reported a significant increase in shipping prices, with spot rates from Shanghai to Los Angeles rising about 16% to $3,136 per 40-foot container, marking the largest increase of the year [2]. - International air cargo flights also saw a nearly 18% increase in the number of flights, reflecting heightened demand across transportation modes [2]. Group 2: Supply Chain and Manufacturing Impact - The surge in orders is attributed to "pre-stocking" as retailers aim to avoid high tariffs, coinciding with a critical shopping season where goods take about a month to reach the US [3]. - Manufacturing facilities, such as those producing home appliances, are operating at full capacity to meet the increased demand, with clients requesting the resumption of previously paused orders [7]. - Shipping companies, including Maersk, are increasing their capacity in response to the rise in bookings, indicating a recovery in shipping operations [7]. Group 3: Market Conditions and Trends - Despite the recent uptick in shipping activity, overall shipping levels remain on par with last year, suggesting that many retailers are either ordering less than in previous years or are waiting for more certainty in the market [7]. - The proportion of canceled sailings has decreased significantly from 25% to 13%, indicating a return to more stable shipping operations [8]. - Recent trade data from Asia shows that the trade policies have caused disruptions, with South Korea's exports down 2.4% year-on-year and Japan's exports growing only 2%, the weakest growth in seven months [9].

Group 1: Social Financing and Monetary Policy - In April, China's social financing scale increased by 1.16 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 1.22 trillion yuan, totaling 16.34 trillion yuan in the first four months, which is 3.61 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [1] - The broad money supply (M2) reached 325.17 trillion yuan, growing by 8% year-on-year, while the narrow money supply (M1) was 109.14 trillion yuan, up by 1.5% [1] - The widening M2-M1 gap indicates overall market liquidity is ample, but the flow of funds into the real economy needs improvement [2] Group 2: International Relations and Trade - China will implement a visa-free policy for citizens of Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Peru, and Uruguay from June 1, 2025, facilitating business and tourism [3] - The expansion of China's "visa-free circle" is expected to boost tourism and foreign investment, as more international visitors gain direct experience of China [4] Group 3: Shipping and Trade Volume - Container bookings from China to the U.S. surged by 277% to 21,530 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) following the recent tariff agreement, indicating a strong rebound in trade activity [5] - The increase in shipping demand is attributed to traders taking advantage of the temporary tariff suspension to stock up on goods [6] Group 4: Venture Capital and Technology Financing - Seven Chinese government departments announced the establishment of a national venture capital guidance fund to support long-term investments in technology [7] - The initiative aims to enhance financing for technology companies, particularly in their early stages, addressing the challenges of converting research into marketable products [8] Group 5: Corporate Earnings and Market Performance - Tencent reported a 13% year-on-year increase in revenue for Q1, reaching 180 billion yuan, while net profit decreased by 7% to 47.82 billion yuan [9] - Despite strong performance in gaming and advertising, Tencent's e-commerce strategy faces challenges, with unclear long-term planning [10] Group 6: Real Estate Financing - Vanke received a loan of up to 15.52 billion yuan from its largest shareholder, Shenzhen Metro Group, as part of ongoing financial support amid market challenges [11] - The cumulative loans from Shenzhen Metro to Vanke have reached nearly 12 billion yuan this year, highlighting the ongoing financial strain on Vanke [12] Group 7: U.S. Treasury Yields and Economic Outlook - The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield approached 5%, reflecting concerns over rising fiscal deficits and the impact of proposed tax cuts [13] - The relationship between rising Treasury yields and the dollar's strength is weakening, indicating market uncertainty regarding U.S. economic prospects [14] Group 8: Stock Market Trends - The Chinese stock market experienced fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.68% amid mixed sector performance [15] - Consumer stocks showed resilience, while technology sectors faced adjustments, reflecting a cautious market sentiment [15]

Group 1 - The high-level economic talks between China and the US have made substantial progress, alleviating global concerns about escalating trade tensions and boosting confidence in the global economy [1] - The agreement to suspend punitive tariffs has been welcomed by the container shipping industry, with potential for increased shipping demand as importers of critical medical supplies may initiate emergency restocking [4] - The average shipping time for trans-Pacific trade is approximately 22 days, and many clients may utilize the 90-day suspension period to transport as many goods as possible to the US [4] Group 2 - The 90-day suspension period provides Chinese e-commerce platforms with time to replenish inventory in the US, potentially allowing for bulk shipments via container ships [7] - The progress made in the Geneva economic talks has positively impacted global financial markets, with the S&P 500 index rising by 3.3% and the Nasdaq composite index increasing by 4.3% [8] - The Nikkei index experienced its highest increase since February 25, indicating a positive market response to the developments in the US-China economic discussions [8]

Group 1: Cross-Border Tourism - The global cross-border tourism market is set to fully recover in 2024, with travel volume reaching 1.4 billion and market size exceeding $1.6 trillion, only 4% short of pre-pandemic peak levels [3] - China, as the largest source country, recorded 180 million outbound trips and nearly $290 billion in cross-border tourism revenue, significantly outpacing the global average in recovery speed and scale [3] - Data from the May Day holiday indicates a 173% year-on-year surge in inbound travel orders, while outbound travel is concentrated in Southeast Asia and Japan/Korea, with flight bookings increasing over 25% [3] - The trend towards short-haul cross-border travel is becoming mainstream, supported by the recovery of flight routes and reflecting the middle class's demand for "value for money" and "fragmented" leisure experiences [3] - The return of Chinese tourists is reshaping global tourism consumption structures and will substantially boost various segments of the global tourism-related industry chain, including airport operators, airlines, destination marketing agencies, and outbound travel service providers [3] Group 2: Veterinary Medicine Market - The veterinary medicine market in China has reached hundreds of billions in 2024, with an expected annual growth rate of 5%-8%, driven by the scale-up of traditional livestock farming and the rise of the pet economy and animal health awareness [4] - Key consumer demands include disease prevention, new vaccines, enhanced safety, and green low-residue products, leading to a shift in product structure from chemical drugs to biological products [4] - The industry is experiencing a "bipolarization" trend, where large enterprises dominate in brand, channel, and capacity, while small enterprises seek differentiation in niche markets such as pet medicine and localized disease prevention [4] - New operational entities, represented by large livestock farming companies, are increasingly focused on prevention efficiency, product residue, and economic benefits, demanding higher quality and stability in veterinary products [4] Group 3: Oral Healthcare Market - The oral healthcare market is expanding due to high rates of edentulism among those aged 65 and above (over 50%) and a 70% prevalence of malocclusion among adolescents, driven by both functional and aesthetic needs [6] - From 2025 to 2030, the average annual growth rate in lower-tier markets is expected to exceed that of first-tier cities by 5-8 percentage points, becoming a core expansion direction for private chains and telemedicine platforms [6] - With the implementation of centralized procurement policies covering implants and orthodontic materials, domestic companies are expected to see an increase in localization rates to 35%-40% over the next five years [6] - Public institutions remain dominant in handling severe cases and educational resources, while private institutions are more flexible, focusing on user experience and brand marketing, particularly in self-funded projects like implants, orthodontics, and aesthetic restorations [6] - Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Shandong account for over 50% of national oral healthcare resources, with Guangdong having a well-established full industry chain in equipment, consumables, and service institutions [6] - Over the next five years, policy direction and technological advancements will drive a shift in oral healthcare services from "treatment-oriented" to "prevention + personalized management + long-term repurchase" consumption cycles [6] Group 4: U.S.-China Trade Talks Impact on LPG - A significant breakthrough in U.S.-China trade relations occurred on May 12, 2025, with 91% of tariffs being lifted and the remaining "reciprocal tariffs" reduced to 10% within 90 days [8] - The reduction in tariffs has substantially improved the cost structure of U.S. products, leading to a $43 per ton increase in June FEI propane paper prices, indicating a rise in market optimism [8] - Chinese ports (e.g., Binzhou, Jiaxing, Ningbo, Tianjin) received a 31.44% increase in shipments of U.S. goods in April, reflecting anticipatory market behavior [8] - The decrease in U.S. tariffs is expected to alter the structure of LPG imports, opening a window for U.S. LPG to re-enter the Chinese market, particularly benefiting energy importers and LPG shipping companies with U.S. procurement capabilities [8] - The rapid increase in June FEI propane paper prices from $517 to $560 per ton (an 8.3% rise) reflects market expectations for U.S. products to re-enter the Asia-Pacific region [8] - In the medium term, U.S. production capacity and tariff advantages will create arbitrage opportunities, suggesting a focus on LPG traders and storage companies with long-term contracts and futures hedging capabilities [8] Group 5: Shipping Industry Response to U.S. Trade Policy - Following the May 12 U.S.-China joint statement, which lifted 91% of tariffs and provided a 90-day suspension on 24% of "reciprocal tariffs," a surge in shipping activity was observed, particularly on routes to the U.S. [9] - The export surge is driven by two key factors: the release of previously delayed shipments due to high tariffs and companies' anticipation of future policy volatility, prompting them to utilize the low-tariff window for deliveries or inventory replenishment [9] - Shipping companies had previously reduced capacity on U.S. routes due to cautious expectations regarding U.S.-China trade tensions, reallocating some capacity to more stable Southeast Asia and European routes [9] - Data from the Shanghai Shipping Exchange indicates that freight rates for U.S. West and East Coast routes have increased by 3.3% and 1.6%, respectively, with further increases expected in the coming weeks [9] - Shipping-related companies (e.g., container shipping, port operations, freight forwarding platforms) will directly benefit from the increased turnover rates and enhanced bargaining power resulting from this export surge [9] - The current "explosion" in shipping activity reflects both the release of market sentiment due to policy changes and the sensitivity of U.S.-China trade structures to external variables [9] - Small exporters, such as Shuangma Plastics and factories in the Yangtze River Delta, report a rapid restart of U.S. customer orders and accelerated payment and scheduling actions within the 90-day tariff relief window [9]