新一轮的涨价潮，是要来了吗？ 2025年12月15日起，在无官方通知的情况下，麦当劳对多款餐品的价格进行上调，涨幅在0.5-1元， 包括多款汉堡、小食及套餐。 然后是茅台。 2025年12月24日，第三方平台"今日酒价"数据显示，茅台酒全系列产品批发价全线上涨，其中25年 飞天茅台原箱单日涨40元至1600元/瓶，生肖蛇原箱单日暴涨230元至2000元/瓶，非标产品涨幅显 著。 再然后是中芯国际。 中芯国际已经对部分产能实施了涨价，涨幅约为 10% 。据 《科创板日报》报道，中芯国际已向下游 客户发布涨价通知，且此次涨价主要集中于8英寸BCD工艺平台，涨价幅度在10%左右。 再然后是航运方面。 全球主要集装箱航运公司已陆续发布新年首轮运价调整通知。地中海航运（ MSC ）、达飞轮船（ CMA CGM ）、马士基（ Maersk ）及赫伯罗特（ Hapag-Lloyd ）等巨头纷纷行动。 计划自 2026 年 1 月 1 日起，对欧洲、地中海、非洲、拉美等多条关键航线征收旺季附加费（ PSS ）或上调均一运费率。 再再然后，手机其实也有涨价。 这段时间，我不知道大家有没有关注，好多行业，好多东西，要开始涨价了。 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The US economy grew by 4.3% in Q3 2025, with the US API crude oil inventory rising. Market risk appetite has rebounded, and various asset classes show different trends [1][6]. - A-shares are in a narrow - range consolidation with increasing trading volume, potentially accumulating momentum for a cross - year market [23]. - The bond market is approaching a critical point, with a higher probability of short - term adjustment than direct upward movement [25]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US Q3 GDP exceeded expectations, and gold prices first declined and then rose. Gold and silver are still in an upward trend, but attention should be paid to the risks and increased volatility caused by short - term profit - taking of long positions [11]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US economy grew by 4.3% in Q3 2025. The market risk appetite has rebounded, and the US dollar will fluctuate in the short term [12][14]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US Q3 GDP growth was the fastest in two years. The market risk appetite remains high, and the US stock market is expected to be in a volatile and slightly upward trend [19][20]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - A - shares had a narrow - range consolidation with increasing trading volume on December 23. It is recommended to evenly allocate long positions in various stock indices [21][23][24]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 59.3 billion yuan, with a net withdrawal of 76 billion yuan on the day. The long - term varieties are bottom - building. It is recommended that allocation investors buy when interest rates rise, and trading investors buy at low prices and exit quickly [25][26]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal prices in the Changzhi market showed mixed trends. Currently, coking coal supply and demand are both weak. It is necessary to pay attention to downstream restocking [27][28]. 2.2 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Turkey imposed anti - dumping duties on Chinese tin - plated coils. The global crude steel output in November decreased by 4.6% year - on - year. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to adopt a volatile trading strategy [29][31][33]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - A major shareholder of Juxing Agriculture pledged 18.5 million shares. In the short and medium term, the supply pressure remains unchanged. It is recommended to short at high prices for the 03 contract and consider long positions for far - month contracts at low prices [34]. 2.4 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The trading limit of polysilicon futures contracts was adjusted. The polysilicon inventory is still accumulating, and demand is weak. It is expected that the spot price may be difficult to fall, but it depends on whether the price increase can be passed on to downstream industries. It is recommended that investors hold positions cautiously [35][36][38]. 2.5 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The designated delivery warehouse and quality inspection institution of industrial silicon futures were adjusted. The supply and demand of industrial silicon depend on the production reduction rhythm of enterprises. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices [38][41][42]. 2.6 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead had a large - scale backwardation. The supply and demand of lead are both weak, and it is recommended to trade with a volatile strategy [43]. 2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc had a backwardation. The short - term fundamentals of zinc are not highly contradictory, and it is recommended to buy on dips and hold positive spreads and conduct reverse arbitrage between domestic and foreign markets [44][45]. 2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Exar applied for incentives for capacity expansion. The short - term sentiment is supported, but there is a callback risk after the resumption of production by large enterprises. It is recommended to go long on dips in the medium and long term [47][48]. 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - China's refined nickel imports in November increased significantly. Indonesia plans to reduce nickel ore production in 2026. It is recommended to go long on dips if cobalt pricing is implemented, and short at high prices if the production quota expectations are not met [49][50][52]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - The LME tin had a contango. The supply of tin ore is uncertain, and demand is weak. Inventory accumulation is a short - term pressure on prices. It is necessary to be vigilant against price drops [53][54][57]. 2.11 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The US API crude oil inventory increased. Oil prices rebounded due to increased market risk appetite and geopolitical risks. Short - term oil prices will be disturbed by geopolitical conflicts [58][59]. 2.12 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA price rose on December 23. The short - term market risk is high [60][61]. 2.13 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - ZIM rejected the management's acquisition offer. The freight rate increase was not realized, and it is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices [62][63].

智通财经APP获悉，高盛发布研报称，展望明年中国航空公司将迎来更高的国际旅游需求，更多国家对 中国旅客实施免签政策，加上机位供应短缺的情况或持续，预期机票价格有进一步上行空间，此受国际 旅客流量预测上调所驱动，原因包括中国出口活动改善、更多国家对中国旅客实施免签政策，料可推动 航空股2027年股本回报率达到达到22%。该行指出，虽然与日本相关旅游风险仍值得关注，但目前继续 对航空股持有正面看法。考虑到中国国航(00753)表现强劲，高盛重点推荐国航H股及A股，评级"买 入"。 其他交通板块方面，高盛表示对原油油轮公司维持乐观看法，预期在2026年的持续上行周期中，现货运 价可进一步上涨，认为中远海能(01138)因其对原油油轮及中国进口业务的较高敞口而受益，同样给 予"买入"评级。至于集装箱航运公司，高盛转为看淡，指出今年新船订单高于预期，推动订单对现有运 力占比达到33%，或带来更深且更长的下行周期。该行予中远海控(01919)评级沽售。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，高盛发布研报称，展望明年中国航空公司将迎来更高的国际旅游需求，更多国家对 中国旅客实施免签政策，加上机位供应短缺的情况或持续，预期机票价格有进一步上行空间，此受国际 旅客流量预测上调所驱动，原因包括中国出口活动改善、更多国家对中国旅客实施免签政策，料可推动 航空股2027年股本回报率达到达到22%。该行指出，虽然与日本相关旅游风险仍值得关注，但目前继续 对航空股持有正面看法。考虑到中国国航(00753)表现强劲，高盛重点推荐国航H股及A股，评级"买 入"。 其他交通板块方面，高盛表示对原油油轮公司维持乐观看法，预期在2026年的持续上行周期中，现货运 价可进一步上涨，认为中远海能(01138)因其对原油油轮及中国进口业务的较高敞口而受益，同样给 予"买入"评级。至于集装箱航运公司，高盛转为看淡，指出今年新船订单高于预期，推动订单对现有运 力占比达到33%，或带来更深且更长的下行周期。该行予中远海控(01919)评级沽售。 ...

自2017年建立直接合作关系，基于徐工集团超限货物占比高的业务特性，中远海运集运充分发挥特种箱运输、端到端供应链协同等方面的核心优势，双方 在跨境运输定制化、海外仓储一体化等方面深度协同，共同打造绿色高效的全球物流供应链。 未来，双方将围绕共建全球化供应链体系、物流模式创新与数字化转型等方向，积极探索绿色物流、智慧供应链等新兴领域的合作机会，为中国工程机 械"走出去"提质增效，共同推动中国制造在国际舞台上绽放更加耀眼的光彩。 12月18日，徐工与中远海运集运举行战略合作协议签署仪式。双方围绕深化科技创新、跨境物流服务、绿色供应链、海外业务协同、数字化平台共建五大 核心领域展开深入交流。协议的签署，标志着"高端制造+全球物流"产业链深度协同进入新阶段。徐工集团、徐工机械董事长、党委书记杨东升与中远海 运控股董事总经理、中远海运集运董事长陶卫东等领导见证签约。 作为全球工程机械行业的领先品牌，徐工产品远销190多个国家和地区，在全球化战略布局中始终注重供应链的稳定与高效，为客户创造价值。中远海运 集运作为全球领先的集装箱航运企业，拥有覆盖全球的航线网络和丰富的物流资源。双方充分发挥在各自领域的优势，持续拓展合作广 ...

摘要 2025 年中国出口在全球出口中占比大，同比增长约 1%，略高于全球平 均水平，表明中国在全球贸易中仍具重要地位。 美国加征关税后，中国出口转向亚洲内部贸易及东南亚、拉丁美洲、非 洲等新兴市场和欧洲，贸易多元化显著。 美国第四季度销量同比下降 7%，预计冬季降幅可能加快至 10%左右， 主要原因是持续去库存，库存水平较低，若 2026 年美国经济稳定或略 好转，贸易量有望稳定或增长。 苏伊士运河重新开放可能导致吨海里需求减少约 10%，对航运供需平衡 造成冲击，显著影响行业利润。 港口拥堵、生产效率低下和罢工等问题可能部分抵消苏伊士运河重新开 放带来的影响，集装箱船公司面临价格战或理性行为的不确定性。 集装箱船公司可能面临价格战或理性行为之间的不确定性，租船市场将 承担大部分痛苦，行业可能面临业绩大幅下滑甚至亏损。 多元化经营且不完全依赖海运业务的公司受苏伊士运河重新开放的影响 相对较小，抗风险能力更强。 Q&A 中国的贸易数据在最近几个月是否有所增强？ 是的，中国的贸易数据在最近几个月表现出显著增强。今年（2025 年）第四 季度迄今为止，中国的贸易量同比增长了 5%，与之前 9 个月的趋势一致，显 ...

Core Insights - Hapag-Lloyd reported a 50% decrease in nine-month net profit, amounting to 846 million euros ($986.61 million) [1] - The company has revised its full-year earnings outlook, lowering the top end of its forecast [1] Financial Performance - The nine-month net profit of 846 million euros represents a significant decline compared to previous periods [1] - The reported profit decline indicates challenges in the container shipping industry, reflecting broader market conditions [1] Earnings Outlook - Hapag-Lloyd has adjusted its full-year earnings forecast, indicating a more conservative outlook for the remainder of the year [1] - The revision suggests potential ongoing pressures in the shipping sector that may affect profitability [1]

Core Viewpoint - The trend of share buybacks among A-share listed companies is becoming more normalized, with many companies implementing multiple buyback plans within the year, indicating a strategic approach to maintaining market value [1][2][12]. Group 1: Buyback Plans and Execution - In October, 24 companies announced new buyback plans, with a total proposed buyback amount of approximately 6.65 billion yuan, a 67.55% increase from September's 3.969 billion yuan [2]. - Among the 24 companies, 13 planned to buy back over 100 million yuan, accounting for 54.17% of the total [2]. - Companies like Midea Group led the buyback efforts, with a single-month buyback exceeding 2 billion yuan for two consecutive months [1][7]. Group 2: Notable Companies and Their Strategies - Zhijiang Biology announced a buyback plan of 60 million to 120 million yuan, utilizing both self-funding and special loans, and has already initiated the buyback with a total payment of 2.0881 million yuan [3]. - Nine安医疗 has been actively maintaining its market value through buybacks, having completed five buyback plans since 2021, with a total payment of approximately 2.879 billion yuan [4][5]. - 中远海控 also launched a buyback plan of 749 million to 1.498 billion yuan, despite its stock price exceeding the buyback price limit, demonstrating confidence in its market value [6]. Group 3: Market Performance and Trends - The buyback execution rate was notably high in October, with 50% of the announced plans already initiated [4]. - Companies are increasingly using buybacks as a core method for market value management and shareholder returns, reflecting a more rational and mature approach to capital management [12]. - The overall market performance of companies like Zhijiang Biology has been positive, with a year-to-date increase of over 80% in stock price [3].

Core Insights - Maersk's Q3 2025 earnings exceeded expectations, prompting an upward revision of its full-year profit forecast and global container market growth predictions [1][2] Financial Performance - Q3 2025 revenue was $14.206 billion, a decrease of 9.9% from $15.762 billion in the same period last year [1][2] - Underlying profit for Q3 2025 was $939 million, down 69.7% from $3.097 billion year-over-year [1][2] - Earnings per share were $69, lower than $193 in the previous year but above analysts' expectations of $62 [1] Profit Forecast and Market Growth - The company raised its full-year underlying EBITDA forecast to between $9 billion and $9.5 billion, up from a previous estimate of $8 billion to $9.5 billion [2] - The global container market is now expected to grow approximately 4%, an increase from the prior forecast of 2% to 4% [2] Market Dynamics - Exports from Far East Asia, particularly China, continue to drive robust cargo volume growth [3] - Despite a contraction in cargo volume to North America, especially from China to the U.S., consumer demand has shown surprising resilience [3][4] - Maersk's ability to adjust its profit expectations reflects its strength amid mixed performance from industry peers [3] Operational Resilience - The company has demonstrated considerable resilience to macroeconomic shocks, adapting to complex supply chain needs despite adverse tariff measures [4] - Ongoing disruptions in Red Sea shipping are expected to persist throughout the year, alleviating some global overcapacity issues and boosting freight rates earlier this year [4]

Report Information - Report Title: Container Industry Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: September 10, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Fu Xiaoyan [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - The intraday trend of the container shipping index (European line) futures was in line with expectations, with the main contract being undervalued but lacking driving forces, resulting in a stalemate [3]. - For hedgers, the strategy suggested yesterday can be attempted. When the futures price does not drop significantly (>30%), the "selling options + buying futures" combination has a high probability of maintaining profitability [3]. - Operationally, it is recommended to enter and exit quickly [3]. Summary by Directory EC Risk Management Strategy Recommendations - For position management, if one has already obtained positions but the shipping capacity is full or the booked cargo volume is poor, and there are concerns about falling freight rates, to prevent losses, one can short container shipping index futures based on the company's positions to lock in profits. The recommended hedging tool is EC2510, with a suggested selling entry range of 1350 - 1450 [2]. - For cost management, if shipping companies increase blank sailings or the market peak season is approaching, and one hopes to book shipping spaces according to order situations, to prevent rising freight rates from increasing transportation costs, one can buy container shipping index futures at present to determine the booking cost in advance. The recommended hedging tool is EC2510, with a suggested buying entry range of 1150 - 1250 [2]. Core Contradictions - In the morning session of the container shipping index (European line) futures, there was obvious early buying by bulls, but they were defeated by the weak spot market expectations. The market was in a stalemate between bulls and bears and ended in consolidation [3]. - As of the close, all contracts had varying degrees of position increases, with the EC2512 contract having the largest increase in positions. Except for the two rebounding forward contracts, it had the smallest decline [3]. - From the changes in the positions of the top 20 institutional holders on the exchange, in the EC2510 contract, bulls reduced their positions by 293 to 25,913, bears increased their positions by 288 to 28,509, and the trading volume decreased by 7,636 to 17,281 (bilateral) [3]. Bullish Interpretations - In July 2025, China's automobile exports continued to show a trend of increasing volume and price. The number of automobile exports reached 694,000, a year-on-year increase of 25.6% and a month-on-month increase of 12.1%. The total import and export volume of automobile products was $24.98 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7% and a month-on-month increase of 6.4%. Among them, the export amount was $20.48 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13.6% and a month-on-month increase of 6% [4]. - MSC, Maersk, and HMM have successively announced their suspension plans for the Golden Week [4]. Bearish Interpretations - The net profit of the global container shipping industry declined significantly in the second quarter of this year. According to a report by a shipping finance analyst, the shipping industry achieved a net income of $4.4 billion in the second quarter, a sharp drop of 56% from the first quarter's $9.9 billion and a significant decline of 63.7% compared to the same period in 2024 [5]. - According to the daily "Freight Rate Note" data, in mid - to late September, the average online booking quote for 20GP containers by shipping companies continued to decline, while the average quote for 40GP containers remained stable [5]. EC Basis Daily Changes - On September 10, 2025, the basis of EC2510 was 299.06 points, with a daily increase of 1.30 points and a weekly decrease of 151.54 points [7]. - The basis of EC2512 was -107.54 points, with a daily increase of 8.90 points and a weekly decrease of 179.94 points [7]. - The basis of EC2602 was 42.46 points, with a daily increase of 3.40 points and a weekly decrease of 197.14 points [7]. - The basis of EC2604 was 320.46 points, with a daily increase of 10.70 points and a weekly decrease of 198.04 points [7]. - The basis of EC2606 was 122.56 points, with a daily decrease of 9.40 points and a weekly decrease of 209.94 points [7]. - The basis of EC2608 was -33.54 points, with a daily increase of 8 points and a weekly decrease of 197.64 points [7]. EC Price and Spreads - On September 10, 2025, the closing price of EC2510 was 1267.4 points, with a daily decrease of 0.10% and a weekly decrease of 4.20% [7]. - The closing price of EC2512 was 1674.0 points, with a daily decrease of 0.53% and a weekly decrease of 1.60% [7]. - The closing price of EC2602 was 1524.0 points, with a daily decrease of 0.22% and a weekly decrease of 0.65% [7]. - The closing price of EC2604 was 1246.0 points, with a daily decrease of 0.28% and a weekly decrease of 0.73% [7]. - The closing price of EC2606 was 1443.9 points, with a daily increase of 0.66% and a weekly increase of 0.19% [7]. - The closing price of EC2608 was 1600.0 points, with a daily decrease of 0.39% and a weekly decrease of 0.59% [7]. Container Shipping Spot Quotes - On September 18, for Maersk's shipping schedule from Shanghai to Rotterdam, the total quote for 20GP containers was $1050, a decrease of $52 compared to the September 17 schedule, and the total quote for 40GP containers was $1760, a decrease of $88 compared to the September 17 schedule [9]. - On September 18, for Hapag - Lloyd's shipping schedule from Shanghai to Rotterdam, the quote for 20GP containers was $1035, an increase of $100 compared to the September 17 schedule, and the quote for 40GP containers was $1535, a decrease of $200 compared to the September 17 schedule [9]. - On September 25, for ONE's shipping schedule from Shanghai to Rotterdam, the quote for 20GP containers was $1244, a decrease of $300 compared to the September 22 schedule, and the quote for 40GP containers was $1943, unchanged from the September 22 schedule [9]. Shipping Index Changes - The SCFIS European route index was 1566.46 points, a decrease of 207.14 points or 11.68% compared to the previous value [10]. - The SCFIS US - West route index was 980.48 points, a decrease of 33.42 points or 3.30% compared to the previous value [10]. - The SCFI European route was $1315/TEU, a decrease of $166 or 11.21% compared to the previous value [10]. - The SCFI US - West route was $2189/FEU, an increase of $266 or 13.83% compared to the previous value [10]. - The XSI European line was $2324/FEU, a decrease of $32 or 1.36% compared to the previous value [10]. - The XSI US - West line was $2248/FEU, an increase of $54 or 2.5% compared to the previous value [10]. - The FBX composite freight rate index was $2080/FEU, an increase of $44 or 2.16% compared to the previous value [10]. Global Major Port Waiting Times - On September 9, 2025, the waiting time at Hong Kong Port was 0.830 days, a decrease of 0.393 days compared to September 8 and 1.434 days compared to the same period last year [17]. - The waiting time at Shanghai Port was 1.697 days, an increase of 0.374 days compared to September 8 and 1.183 days compared to the same period last year [17]. - The waiting time at Yantian Port was 0.807 days, a decrease of 0.134 days compared to September 8 [17]. - The waiting time at Singapore Port was 0.569 days, a decrease of 0.193 days compared to September 8 and 0.453 days compared to the same period last year [17]. - The waiting time at Jakarta Port was 1.422 days, an increase of 0.329 days compared to September 8 and 1.454 days compared to the same period last year [17]. - The waiting time at Long Beach Port was 1.849 days, an increase of 0.247 days compared to September 8 and 1.925 days compared to the same period last year [17]. - The waiting time at Savannah Port was 1.953 days, an increase of 0.980 days compared to September 8 and 1.403 days compared to the same period last year [17]. Ship Speeds and Number of Container Ships Waiting at Suez Canal Ports - On September 9, 2025, the speed of container ships with a capacity of over 8000 TEU was 15.852 knots, a decrease of 0.017 knots compared to September 8 and 15.904 knots compared to the same period last year [26]. - The speed of container ships with a capacity of over 3000 TEU was 14.789 knots, a decrease of 0.084 knots compared to September 8 and 15.205 knots compared to the same period last year [26]. - The speed of container ships with a capacity of over 1000 TEU was 13.29 knots, an increase of 0.062 knots compared to September 8 and 13.525 knots compared to the same period last year [26]. - The number of ships waiting at the Suez Canal port anchorages was 20, a decrease of 2 compared to September 8 and an increase of 8 compared to the same period last year [26].