航运日报 2025 年 08 月 26 日 研究员：贾瑞林 第一部分 集装箱航运——集运指数（欧线） 期货从业证号： F3084078 投资咨询证号： Z0018656 大宗商品研究所 航运研发报告 联系方式： :jiaruilin_qh@chinastock.com.cn 研究员：黄莹 期货从业证号： F03111919 投资咨询证号： Z0018607 联系方式： :huangying_qh1@chinastock.com.cn | 银河期货集运指数(欧线)日报 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 増减幅 | 持仓量(手) | 増减幅 | | EC2510 | 6'818'T | -39.1 | -2.88% | 25,779.0 | -34.29% | 54,409.0 | 0.10% | | EC2512 | 1,643.9 | -52.8 | -3.11% | 6.599.0 | -9.47 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The shipping rate center is continuously declining, and attention should be paid to Maersk's quotes in the first week of September [1][5]. - The 8 - month contract has seen the top of the shipping rate, and the continuous downward revision of the shipping rate brings uncertainty to the estimated delivery settlement price. The estimated final delivery settlement price is around 2100 points [4]. - The 10 - month contract is mainly for short allocation, and the focus is on the downward slope of the shipping rate. It is relatively safe to short - allocate, but the key lies in the downward space. In the context of a large discount, it is relatively safe to short the EC2510 contract on rallies, but do not over - short [5][6]. - The seasonal pattern of peak and off - peak seasons still exists for the 12 - month contract, and the risk lies in whether the Suez Canal will reopen. If it reopens, the seasonal pattern may be challenged [6]. - The main contract oscillates weakly, and it is advisable to short the 10 - month contract on rallies [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Prices - As of August 18, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts is 78,292.00 lots, and the daily trading volume is 37,185.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts are 1537.90, 1331.00, 1494.90, 2088.20, 1373.10, and 1789.70 respectively [7]. 2. Spot Prices - On August 15, 2025, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1820.00 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - West Coast of the United States) price was 1759.00 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - East Coast of the United States) price was 2719.00 US dollars/FEU. On August 18, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 2180.17 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - West Coast of the United States) was 1106.29 points [7]. 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - In August 2025, there were many additional ships. Maersk added two additional ships in WEEK32 and WEEK35, and the OA alliance also added two additional ships. HPL announced two additional ships for October. The weekly average capacity from China to European base ports in August was 283,100 TEU, in September it was 315,800 TEU, and in October it was 281,300 TEU. There were 3 TBNs and 2 blank sailings in September (both blank sailings were from the PA alliance), and 10 TBNs and 1 blank sailing in October [3]. - As of August 15, 2025, 167 container ships with a total capacity of 1.318 million TEU have been delivered in 2025. Among them, 51 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU and a total capacity of 768,000 TEU, and 8 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU and a total capacity of 176,880 TEU have been delivered [8]. 4. Supply Chain - There is information about the global container ship capacity congestion ratio, congestion capacity, ship speeds of different sizes, and the number of container ships passing through the Suez Canal, Cape of Good Hope, and Panama Canal, but no specific data is summarized in the text [56][60][71]. 5. Demand and European Economy - There is information about port container throughput, EU 27 industrial production index, EU 27 imports from China, euro - zone consumer confidence index, EU 27 retail sales year - on - year, China's export volume to the EU, and Asia - North America and Asia - Europe trade volumes, but no specific data is summarized in the text [75][76][80].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Pessimistic sentiment has slightly recovered, with the main contract experiencing wide - range fluctuations. Given the large recent volatility, it is not recommended to increase positions, and stop - losses should be set. In the context of geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the game is difficult, and it is advisable to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines [2][5]. 3. Summary by Content 3.1 SCFIS, NCFI and Other Freight Rate Indexes - On August 11, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2235.48 points, down 2.7% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1082.14 points, down 4.2% from the previous period. On August 8, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1053.86 points, down 3.11% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 1257.71 points, down 8.37% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1042.91 points, down 6.42% from the previous period. Also on August 8, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1489.68 points, down 61.06 points from the previous period; the SCFI price for the European line was 1961 USD/TEU, down 4.39% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1823 USD/FEU, down 9.80% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1200.73 points, down 2.6% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 1799.05 points, up 0.5% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 827.84 points, down 5.6% from the previous period [3]. 3.2 PMI Data - The eurozone's July manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.8, higher than the expected 49.7 and the previous value of 49.5. The eurozone's July services PMI preliminary value reached 51.2, exceeding the expected 50.7 and the previous value of 50.5. The eurozone's July composite PMI preliminary value was 51, higher than the expected 50.8 and the previous value of 50.6. The eurozone's July SENTIX investor confidence index jumped to 4.5, significantly higher than June's 0.2 and the market - expected 1.1, reaching the highest level since April 2022. In the US, the July S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.5, with an expected 52.7 and a previous value of 52.9; the July S&P Global services PMI preliminary value was 55.2, with an expected 53 and a previous value of 52.9. The US July Markit composite PMI preliminary value was 54.6, the highest since December 2024, better than the expected 52.8 and the previous value of 52.9. China's July manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity [3][4]. 3.3 Trade and Market Situation - The Sino - US tariff extension continues, and the negotiation has not made substantial progress. The tariff war has gradually evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries. Currently, the spot price has slightly decreased. Against the backdrop of geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the game is difficult, and it is recommended to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines [5]. 3.4 Market Conditions of the Main Contract - On August 14, the main contract 2510 closed at 1359.5, with a decline of 0.18%, a trading volume of 32,100 lots, and an open interest of 56,700 lots, a decrease of 4042 lots from the previous day. The market's macro - sentiment has slightly recovered, but due to the possible stabilization of market freight rates, the long - short game is intense, and the market fluctuates widely. Except for the main contract, other contracts have risen. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [5]. 3.5 Trading Strategies - **Short - term strategy**: For risk - takers, a light - position long attempt can be made around 1300 for the 2510 contract. Follow - up market trends should be monitored, and it is not recommended to hold losing positions. Stop - losses should be set. - **Arbitrage strategy**: Given the volatile international situation, each contract still follows seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines temporarily or make a light - position attempt. - **Long - term strategy**: For each contract, it is recommended to take profits when the price rises, wait for the price to stabilize after a pull - back, and then judge the subsequent trend [5]. 3.6 Contract Rules Adjustment - The up - and down limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18%. The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28%. The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [5]. 3.7 Shipping Industry Forecast - After a 6% growth in global container shipping volume in 2024, it is expected to grow by 3% year - on - year in 2025 and 2026 respectively. The global container fleet may not scrap any capacity in 2025 after scrapping 100,000 TEU of capacity each year in 2023 and 2024. The global ship delivery volume is expected to be 3.1 million TEU in 2024, 1.8 million TEU in 2025, and 1.6 million TEU in 2026. Currently, there are 9.3 million TEU of ship orders globally, accounting for 29% of the global fleet, higher than 27% in 2024 [5].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report indicates that due to the combination of geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the complexity of market games is high. It is recommended to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines. Although the market's macro - sentiment has slightly recovered, the multi - empty game is intense, and the market is in a wide - range shock. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [2][5]. 3. Key Points by Content Freight Index - On August 11, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2235.48 points, down 2.7% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1082.14 points, down 4.2% from the previous period [3]. - On August 8, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the European route was 1257.71 points, down 8.37% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 1042.91 points, down 6.42% from the previous period [3]. - On August 8, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1489.68 points, down 61.06 points from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 1961 USD/TEU, down 4.39% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US - West route was 1823 USD/FEU, down 9.80% from the previous period [3]. - On August 8, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) for the European route was 1799.05 points, up 0.5% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 827.84 points, down 5.6% from the previous period [3]. Economic Data - The eurozone's July manufacturing PMI was 49.8, higher than the expected 49.7, and the previous value was 49.5; the service PMI was 51.2, higher than the expected 50.7, and the previous value was 50.5; the composite PMI was 51, higher than the expected 50.8, and the previous value was 50.6. The July SENTIX investor confidence index jumped to 4.5 [3]. - China's July manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [4]. - The US July S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 49.5, lower than the expected 52.7; the service PMI was 55.2, higher than the expected 53; the composite PMI was 54.6, a new high since December 2024 [4]. Market Conditions - On August 14, the main contract 2510 closed at 1359.5, down 0.18%, with a trading volume of 3.21 million lots and an open interest of 56,700 lots, a decrease of 4042 lots from the previous day [5]. - The market sentiment has slightly recovered, but due to the stabilization of market freight rates, the multi - empty game is intense, and the market is in a wide - range shock. After the close, except for the main contract, other contracts have increased [5]. Trade Policy - The Sino - US tariff extension negotiation has not made substantial progress, and the tariff war has gradually evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries. Currently, the spot price has slightly decreased [5]. Geopolitical Situation - On August 13, Hamas proposed a cease - fire request to Egypt, including asking Israel to agree in writing to permanently end the war and abandon any plan to occupy Gaza and provide international guarantees. Hamas negotiation representatives arrived in Egypt this week to restart the cease - fire and hostage release negotiations [5]. Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: For risk - preference investors, they can try to go long lightly around 1300 on the 2510 contract. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [5]. - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international situation instability, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines or try with light positions [5]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise, wait for the correction to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent trend [5]. Contract Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18% [5]. - The margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% [5]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - China - Europe Base Port: In August, the monthly average weekly capacity was 347,300 TEU, and in September, it was 297,100 TEU. In August, Maersk added two additional vessels, and the OA Alliance added one. There were 4 blank sailings in August, all from the OA Alliance, and currently 3 TBNs in August and 2 in September [2][115]. - August Contract: The top of the freight rate has appeared. The estimated SCFIS on August 4th and 11th is between 2300 - 2400 points. The delivery settlement price has been revised down to 2100 - 2200 points. Pay attention to Maersk's Week 34 opening price [3][122]. - October Contract: It is mainly for short - allocation. Normally, October is one of the two months with the lowest freight rates in a year. The 10 - month contract price is usually 20% - 30% lower than that in August. Currently, the 10 - contract is equivalent to a spot price of around $2000/FEU. In the context of a large discount, it is relatively safe to short the EC2510 contract on rallies, but do not over - short [4][123]. - December Contract: The pattern of off - peak and peak seasons still exists. The risk lies in whether the Suez Canal will resume navigation. Normally, the price in December is more than 10% higher than that in October [6][124]. Summary by Directory 7 - Month Container Freight Rate Review - Futures Market: As of August 1st, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index (European line) futures was 75,300 lots, and the trading volume on that day was 41,800 lots. In July, the EC2508 contract rose 20.73%, the EC2510 contract rose 6.35%, the EC2512 contract rose 12.83%, the EC2602 contract rose 13.93%, and the EC2604 contract rose 13.27% [11]. - Spot Price Performance: In July, most routes saw price increases. Among the 10 routes counted by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange, 4 routes had an increase of over 50%. The SCFIS European route (basic port) rose 9.1% to 2316.56 points, and the SCFIS US - West route (basic port) fell 20.7 to 1284.01 points [22]. - Forward Spot Quotation: The forward quotation has peaked and declined. Different shipping companies have different price trends for different weeks and ship - departure periods [35]. Supply Chain - Overall Contradiction: The overall contradiction is small. The number of container ships passing through the Suez Canal is still at a low level. The container ship diversion pattern continues. The number of container ships passing through the Cape of Good Hope has increased significantly [39]. - Global Supply Chain: The supply - chain efficiency is continuously recovering. In June, the comprehensive punctuality rate of global main routes was 47.58%, approaching the high in 2023. The punctuality rates of Asian - European, Asian - US West, and Asian - US East routes have all reached new highs [49]. - Port Congestion: The overall port congestion pressure is small, but there is local pressure. As of July 31, 2025, the global container ship congestion capacity was 9.96 million TEU, accounting for 31% of the total container ship capacity [56]. Capacity Supply - Global Supply: The container ship delivery pressure remains large. New shipbuilding orders are at a high level. In 2024, shipping companies significantly increased container ship orders. In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries, and the ship - dismantling pressure is limited [67][72]. - Far East - Europe Route Capacity Supply: The delivery pressure of ultra - large ships on the Far East - Europe route is still large. From 2025 - 2028, there will still be significant supply - side pressure [87][92]. Overseas Demand - Eurozone Economy: The Eurozone economy stabilized in the first quarter. In the second quarter, the GDP increased by 1.2% year - on - year and 0.4% quarter - on - quarter. The inflation is stable, and the market confidence has improved to some extent, but it is still affected by the shadow of tariffs [103]. - Import Demand: In 2025, the European import demand is acceptable. From January to May, the container trade volume between the Far East and Europe increased by 10.6% year - on - year, while China's exports to the US decreased by 10.71% from January to June [105][107]. European Line Strategy - Freight Rate Trend: The top of the freight rate has appeared. Pay attention to the downward slope of the freight rate in the later stage. The capacity in August and September is relatively high, and there are additional vessels in August for Maersk and the OA Alliance [115][122].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The shipping market shows mixed trends in different routes and indicators. For example, some routes' capacity has decreased while others have increased, and there are also fluctuations in container volumes and port throughput [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs High - frequency Capacity - In the 31st week (planned capacity as of August 3rd), the capacity of the China - US West route decreased by 5.2% week - on - week, with a capacity of 326,000 TEU and a year - on - year increase of 5.7%. The capacity of the China - US East route increased by 12.9% week - on - week, with a capacity of 236,000 TEU and a year - on - year increase of 41.8%. The capacity of the China - Southeast Asia route decreased by 5.4% week - on - week and increased by 36.9% year - on - year. The capacity of the China - Europe route decreased by 13.9% week - on - week and 9.4% year - on - year, and the capacity of the Mediterranean route decreased by 8.5% week - on - week at a high level but increased by 29.3% year - on - year [2]. Container Volume Data of Cargo - Laden Containers Sent to the US - As of July 21st, the weekly shipped cargo - laden container volume from China to the US was 495,000 TEU, a week - on - week decrease of 12.5%, and the number of ships was 62, a week - on - week decrease of 8.8%. The recent shipping capacity scale has been fluctuating downward [2]. US Port Arrival Volume Data - In the week of July 17th, the weekly arrival volume of imported goods in the US was 522,000 TEU, a week - on - week decrease of 17.8%. The weekly arrival volume of imported goods from China was 190,000 TEU, a week - on - week decrease of 18%, and the weekly arrival volume from Vietnam was 62,000 TEU, a week - on - week decrease of 16.6% [3]. Domestic Port Throughput - In the week of July 20th, the container throughput of Chinese ports increased by 2.6% week - on - week, reaching 6.642 million TEU/week [3]. Vizion Booking Data - In the week from July 7th to 13th, the overall booking volume of the US and the booking volume of imported goods from China continued to decline week - on - week. The overall booking volume of the US was 345,000 TEU, a week - on - week decrease of 7.6% with the decline rate widening by 7 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 16.6%. The booking volume from China was 124,000 TEU, a week - on - week decrease of 10.7% and a year - on - year sharp decrease of 30.1% [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Container Shipping**: The spot freight rate is gradually reaching its peak, and some shipping companies have slightly reduced their rates for late July. The EC futures market is generally volatile. Attention should be paid to the opening price of MSK in the first week of August, as well as the impact of tariff policies on shipping schedules and the progress of the cease - fire negotiations in the Middle East [4][6]. - **Dry Bulk Shipping**: The international dry - bulk shipping market ended its three - week decline. The rates of large - vessel markets are expected to stop falling and recover, while the rates of medium - sized vessel markets are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [26]. - **Oil Tanker Shipping**: The short - term freight rates are mainly affected by geopolitical conflict premiums. Attention should be paid to changes in market sentiment. The price of domestic refined oil may be reduced, and the oil price is affected by factors such as Trump's possible sanctions on Russia and trade tensions [30][31]. 3. Summary by Directory Container Shipping - **Futures Market**: On July 14, 2025, EC2508 closed at 2027.2 points, down 0.17% from the previous day. The trading volume and open interest of some contracts changed significantly. The month - spread structure also showed corresponding changes [2]. - **Freight Rates**: The SCFIS European line was at 2258.04 points, up 6.35% week - on - week and down 58.43% year - on - year. The SCFIS US West line was at 1557.77 points, down 3.79% week - on - week and down 65.99% year - on - year. Different routes had different price trends [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: In July, it was in a stage of increasing supply and demand, approaching the peak of the peak season. The weekly average capacity in July, August, and September was 27.77, 28.83, and 30.04 million TEU respectively, with a slight decrease in July and August compared to the previous schedule [6]. - **Tariffs**: Trump announced additional tariffs on imports from Canada, the EU, and Mexico starting from August 1. The impact on China's exports and re - export trade needs attention [4]. - **Trade Data**: In June, China's exports to the US were $381.7 billion, down 16.1% year - on - year but with a significant improvement in the month - on - month growth rate. Exports to ASEAN were $581.9 billion, up 16.8% year - on - year, and exports to the EU were $492.2 billion, up 7.6% year - on - year [5]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading should focus on tariffs and geopolitical dynamics, and for arbitrage, 10 - 12 reverse arbitrage rolling operations are recommended [9][10]. Dry Bulk Shipping - **Freight Rate Index**: The Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index (BDI) rose 198 points to 1663 points, a 13.5% increase, reaching the highest level since June 25. The Capesize vessel index, Panamax vessel index, and Supramax vessel index all showed different degrees of increase [19][20]. - **Spot Rates**: On July 11, the spot rates of various routes increased to varying degrees, such as the Brazil - Qingdao iron ore route and the Australia - Qingdao coal route [22]. - **Shipping Data**: From July 7 - 13, 2025, the global iron ore shipping volume was 29.871 million tons, a decrease of 78,000 tons. The shipping volume from Australia and Brazil was 25.588 million tons, an increase of 938,000 tons [23]. - **Import and Export Data**: In June, China's steel exports decreased month - on - month, while imports also decreased. Iron ore imports increased month - on - month, and coal and grain imports decreased month - on - month. The overall situation in the first half of the year showed an increase in steel exports and an increase in soybean imports [24]. - **Market Analysis**: The Capesize vessel market's freight rates stopped falling and recovered due to increased vessel inquiries and improved demand expectations. The Panamax vessel market's rates continued to rise due to strong demand for coal and grain transportation and tight market capacity [26]. Oil Tanker Shipping - **Freight Rate Index**: On July 11, the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) was at 929, down 0.21% week - on - week and down 11.86% year - on - year. The Baltic Clean Tanker Index (BCTI) was at 546, up 0.74% week - on - week and down 33.50% year - on - year [29][30]. - **Market Analysis**: The short - term freight rates are mainly affected by geopolitical conflict premiums. The domestic refined oil price may be reduced, and the oil price is affected by Trump's possible sanctions on Russia and trade tensions [30][31]. Industry News - **Tariff News**: Trump announced additional tariffs on imports from Mexico, the EU, and other countries starting from August 1. The EU has extended the suspension period of counter - measures against US tariffs until early August [4][10][11]. - **Shipping Policy**: Guinea requires that 50% of bauxite exports must be transported by Guinean ships [27]. - **Oil Market News**: Trump's dissatisfaction with Russia may lead to more sanctions, which could affect the oil market. The OPEC + has reached an over - expected production increase agreement, and the oil price is affected by multiple factors [31][32].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage in the market [6][66]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading player in the Asian intra-regional shipping market, showcasing a robust and resilient profitability across economic cycles. Its operational model emphasizes high-frequency logistics, which provides a competitive edge [10][66]. - The company has maintained a strong dividend policy, with a dividend payout ratio exceeding 70% over the past eight years, reaching 84.91% in 2024, amounting to a total cash dividend of 6.25 billion [10][46]. Summary by Relevant Sections Market Performance - The closing price of the company's stock is HKD 25.25, with a one-year high of HKD 25.80 and a low of HKD 15.70. The total market capitalization stands at HKD 68,174.70 million, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 24.28% [4]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: USD 2,429 million in 2023, USD 3,058 million in 2024, and expected to reach USD 3,264 million in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.72% [6][64]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be USD 531 million in 2023, USD 1,028 million in 2024, and USD 1,025 million in 2025, reflecting a slight decline of 0.29% year-on-year [6][64]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the upcoming years are projected at 8.57 for 2025, 8.52 for 2026, and 8.20 for 2027 [6][66]. Business Model and Competitive Advantage - The company operates a comprehensive logistics network that integrates both maritime and land logistics, with a fleet of 114 vessels, including 100 owned ships, providing a total capacity of 180,255 TEU [7][15]. - The operational model focuses on point-to-point direct shipping services, enhancing flexibility and efficiency in logistics operations across 78 trade routes covering 81 major ports [7][20]. Dividend Policy and Shareholder Returns - The company has demonstrated a consistent dividend payout history since its listing in 2010, with a notable dividend yield of approximately 10% expected over the next three years [10][46]. Market Outlook - The intra-Asian shipping market is anticipated to remain resilient, driven by the ongoing recovery in the container shipping industry and stable trade volumes. The company is well-positioned to capitalize on these trends due to its strategic operational model and regional focus [51][56].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The shipping market is affected by multiple factors including tariff policies, geopolitical situations, and spot freight rates. The market is in a state of multi - empty game with uncertain outcomes for the implementation of liner companies' price increases [3]. - Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates in the future [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Freight Index - On May 12, the NCFI (composite index) was 1014.55 points, up 6.53% from the previous period; the SCFIS (European route) was 1265.30 points, down 2.9%; the NCFI (European route) was 750.91 points, down 0.78%; the SCFIS (US West route) was 1446.36 points, down 0.6%; the NCFI (US West route) was 1813.08 points, up 23.18% [2]. - On May 16, the SCFI was 1479.39 points, down 134.22 points from the previous period; the CCFI (composite index) was 1104.88 points, down 0.1%; the SCFI European route price was 1154 USD/TEU, down 0.60%; the CCFI (European route) was 1430.35 points, down 1.0%; the SCFI US West route was 3091 USD/FEU, up 31.70%; the CCFI (US West route) was 876.92 points, up 2.2% [2]. Economic Data - In March, China's manufacturing PMI was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month; the Caixin China manufacturing PMI was 51.2, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [3]. - In April, the eurozone's manufacturing PMI initial value was 48.7 (expected 47.5), the service PMI initial value was 49.7 (expected 50.5), and the composite PMI initial value was 50.1 (expected 50.3) [2]. - In April, the US S&P Global manufacturing PMI initial value was 50.7 (expected 49.1), the service PMI initial value was 51.4 (expected 52.8), and the composite PMI initial value was 51.2 (expected 52.2) [3]. Market Influencing Factors - Tariffs have been added as a trade negotiation tool, increasing uncertainty in the shipping market. The easing of the Sino - US trade war may lead to a rush of shipments in 90 days, which is beneficial for the digestion of US - bound shipping capacity, but price wars among alliances cannot be avoided [3]. - The Houthi rebels announced a maritime blockade of Haifa, Israel on May 19, which may affect shipping routes and freight rates [5]. - The new US government's tariff policy has brought more negative impacts than expected, causing uncertainty for shipping companies [5]. Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: Due to the volatile external policies, it is difficult to operate. It is recommended to focus on medium - to - long - term contracts if participating [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: Under the background of tariff easing, the 90 - day exemption will lead to a near - strong and far - weak freight rate pattern, but the window period is short and volatile. Currently, a positive arbitrage structure is recommended [4]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when prices reach a high level, wait for the price to stabilize after a pullback, and then try to go long on the freight rate rebound [4]. Contract Information - The daily limit for contracts 2506 - 2604 is 16% [4]. - The company's margin for contracts 2506 - 2604 is 26% [4]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2506 - 2604 is 100 lots [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - European port congestion has intensified, with a 24 - hour strike in Antwerp. The market is oscillating at a high level, in line with the daily report's expectations. It is recommended to take profits on rallies and wait for pull - back opportunities [1]. - The addition of tariffs as a trade negotiation tool adds significant uncertainty to future shipping trends. Although shipping companies are trying to hold up prices, the easing of the China - US trade war may lead to a rush of shipments within 90 days, which is beneficial for the digestion of US - bound shipping capacity, but price wars among alliances cannot be avoided [2]. - The 2508 contract has become the main contract, possibly due to the explosive shipment of US - bound goods, driving up European and American freight rates. Shipping companies have successively announced price increases, and bullish sentiment has risen. Although the SCFIS index has slightly declined, the market is still oscillating upwards [2]. 3. Summary by Related Content Shipping Market Conditions - **May 16th Shipping Indexes**: The NCFI (comprehensive index) was 1014.55 points, up 6.53% from the previous period; the SCFIS (European route) was 1265.30 points, down 2.9%; the NCFI (European route) was 750.91 points, down 0.78%; the SCFIS (US - West route) was 1446.36 points, down 0.6%; the NCFI (US - West route) was 1813.08 points, up 23.18%. The SCFI was 1479.39 points, down 134.22 points; the CCFI (comprehensive index) was 1104.88 points, down 0.1%; the SCFI European route price was 1154 USD/TEU, down 0.60%; the CCFI (European route) was 1430.35 points, down 1.0%; the SCFI US - West route was 3091 USD/FEU, up 31.70%; the CCFI (US - West route) was 876.92 points, up 2.2% [1]. - **May 19th Futures Market**: The main contract 2508 closed at 2387.9, up 5.84%, with a trading volume of 85,100 lots and an open interest of 54,100 lots, an increase of 5292 lots from the previous day [2]. Economic Data - **Eurozone April Data**: The manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 48.7 (expected 47.5); the services PMI preliminary value was 49.7 (expected 50.5); the composite PMI preliminary value was 50.1 (expected 50.3, previous value 50.9). The Sentix investor confidence index was - 19.5 (expected - 10, previous value - 2.9) [1]. - **China March Data**: The manufacturing PMI was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month; the Caixin China manufacturing PMI was 51.2, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, reaching a four - month high [1]. - **US April Data**: The S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 50.7 (expected 49.1, March final value 50.2); the services PMI preliminary value was 51.4 (expected 52.8, March final value 54.4); the composite PMI was 51.2 (expected 52.2, March final value 53.5) [2]. Strategies - **Short - term Strategy**: Given the volatile external policies, it is difficult to operate. If participating in each contract, it is recommended to focus on the medium - to - long - term [3]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Against the backdrop of tariff easing, the 90 - day exemption will lead to a near - strong and far - weak freight rate situation. However, the window period is short and the fluctuations are large. For now, focus on positive spreads [3]. - **Long - term Strategy**: It is recommended to take profits on rallies for each contract, wait for the pull - back to stabilize, and then try to go long on the freight rate rebound [3]. Contract Rules - **Price Limits**: For contracts from 2506 - 2604, the price limit is 16% [3]. - **Margin**: For contracts from 2506 - 2604, the company's margin requirement is 26% [3]. - **Daily Open - Position Limit**: For all contracts from 2506 - 2604, the daily open - position limit is 100 lots [3]. Geopolitical and Policy Events - Israel's prime minister has approved the immediate resumption of humanitarian aid to Gaza [4]. - The new US government's tariff policy has had a greater negative impact on the US and global economies than expected, and has brought uncertainty to the operations of shipping companies [4].