大宗商品研究所 航运研发报告 航运日报 第一部分 集装箱航运——集运指数（欧线） 期货从业证号： F3084078 投资咨询证号： Z0018656 联系方式： :jiaruilin_qh@chinastock.com.cn | 银河期货集运指数 | | | | （欧线） 日报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 增减幅 | 持仓量(手) | 增减幅 | | EC2510 | 1,119.9 | 9.3 | 0.84% | 15,562.0 | 10.14% | 21,030.0 | -15.14% | | EC2512 | 1,688.0 | -43.9 | -2.53% | 41,507.0 | 168.58% | 24,222.0 | 16.61% | | EC2602 | 1,406.0 | -236.8 | -14.41% | 12,789.0 | 213.53% | 8,743.0 | 2.45% | | ...

自2025年10月14日起，美国贸易代表署（USTR）正式对中国籍或中国建造的船舶征收"港口入港费"。该政策以船舶属性为核心划分标准，旨在通过分层 费率调整航运结构与供应链依赖。具体征收分为三档： 其一，对中资运营/船东的船舶，按净吨（NT）每航次收费50美元/NT，并自实施日起每年递增30美元，至2028年将升至140美元/NT。此费用按"每艘船、 每次进入美国港口"征收，每年每船最多计费5次。其二，对中国建造的非中资运营船舶，采用"孰高原则"征收：按净吨18美元/NT或按每个卸下集装箱 （TEU）120美元，两者取其高者。该费率同样逐年提高，至2028年净吨费达33美元/NT，按箱计费升至每箱250美元。其三，对外国建造的车辆运输船 （汽车/滚装船），无论是否与中国有关，统一按净吨14美元/NT征收。 政策同时设有豁免条款，美国籍船舶、参与美国海事管理局（MARAD）特定项目的船舶、小型船舶（载箱量低于4000 TEU或载重低于5.5万吨）以及空 载或压载驶入的船舶均可获得豁免。此外，由于美国目前缺乏本土液化天然气（LNG）船建造能力，因此LNG运输船享有过渡期，暂不征费，但美国计 划自2028年起强制要 ...

Core Points - The "2025 Phoenix Star Listed Company Awards" ceremony was held in Guangzhou, recognizing companies in various key areas such as innovation, shareholder returns, social responsibility, and growth [1][2] - The "Best Shareholder Return Listed Company" award emphasizes sustainable profitability and shareholder equity growth, integrating financial metrics with ESG performance [2][6] Group 1: Award Winners - The winners of the "Best Shareholder Return Listed Company" award include COSCO Shipping Holdings, Orient Overseas International, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Gujing Distillery, and Bosideng [2][4] - Orient Overseas International has distributed over $14.4 billion in dividends over the past four years, maintaining a stable dividend payout ratio of 50% [5][6] - COSCO Shipping Holdings has distributed cash dividends totaling 113.6 billion yuan over the past four years, with a dividend payout ratio of 50% in the last three years [9][10] - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China has maintained a dividend payout ratio of over 30% since its listing in 2006, with a total cash dividend exceeding 1.5 trillion yuan [12][13] - Gujing Distillery plans to distribute 3.172 billion yuan in cash dividends for 2024, maintaining a high dividend payout ratio [15][16] - Bosideng achieved a revenue of 25.902 billion yuan in the 2025 fiscal year, with a net profit of 3.514 billion yuan, and a high dividend payout ratio of 84.1% [18][19] Group 2: Company Performance - Orient Overseas International reported a net profit of $2.577 billion for 2024, with a basic earnings per share of $3.90 [6][10] - COSCO Shipping Holdings achieved a revenue of 233.859 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit of 49.172 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 105.78% [10] - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China has maintained a stable net interest margin and steady growth in intermediary business income, with a non-performing loan ratio better than the industry average [13] - Gujing Distillery's revenue for the first half of 2025 was 13.880 billion yuan, with a net profit margin of 27.22% [16] - Bosideng's revenue growth of 11.6% in a challenging industry environment demonstrates its resilience and commitment to shareholder returns [19]

Report Overview - Report Title: 【中信期货航运】美西、欧洲计划运力高位回落,至美国发运量维持低位 -- 数据报告20250916 - Research Team: Industrial and Cyclical Group - Research Analysts: An Jierui, Wu Xilu 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The planned shipping capacities for the US West Coast and Europe are declining from their peak levels, while the shipping volume to the United States remains low [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs High - frequency Shipping Capacity - In the 39th week (from September 21st to September 28th), the planned shipping capacity on the US West Coast route dropped to 340,000 TEU, a year - on - year decrease of 9.3% and a month - on - month decrease of 11.4%. The shipping capacity on the US East Coast route was 217,000 TEU, a year - on - year increase of 7.5% and a month - on - month increase of 31% [4] - The shipping capacity on the China - Southeast Asia route is operating at a high level, with a year - on - year positive growth of 37% but a narrowing increase, and a month - on - month decline of 12.5% with an expanding decline [4] - In the 39th week, the shipping capacity on the China - North Europe route decreased month - on - month, dropping to 325,000 TEU, a month - on - month decrease of 8.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 23.2%. The shipping capacity on the Mediterranean route increased by 46.7% year - on - year and decreased by 8% month - on - month [4] Shipping Volume of Containerized Cargo to the United States - As of September 15th, the shipping volume of containerized cargo from China to the United States reached 444,000 TEU, a week - on - week decrease of 8%, and the number of ships was 54, a week - on - week decrease of 1.8% [4] - The shipping volume of containerized cargo from Vietnam to the United States rebounded last week, reaching 130,000 TEU, a week - on - week increase of 44% [4] Port Arrival Volume in the United States - In the 37th week, the weekly arrival volume of imported goods in the United States was 531,000 TEU, a week - on - week decrease of 20%. The weekly arrival volume of imported goods from China was 189,000 TEU, a week - on - week decrease of 24.6%, and that from Vietnam was 68,000 TEU, a week - on - week decrease of 14.9% [5] - This week, the weekly arrival volume of imported goods in the United States was 486,000 TEU, a week - on - week decrease of 8.4%. The weekly arrival volume of imported goods from China was 170,000 TEU, a week - on - week decrease of 10.5%, and that from Vietnam was 61,000 TEU, a week - on - week decrease of 9.9% [5] Domestic Port Throughput - In the week of September 14th, the container throughput of domestic ports increased by 0.1% week - on - week and 13.5% year - on - year, reaching 6652,000 TEU [5] Vizion Booking Data - From August 18th to August 25th, the total bookings in the United States were 336,000 TEU, a week - on - week decrease of 5.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.2%. The bookings from China to the United States were 122,000 TEU, a week - on - week decrease of 3.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 30% [5] - In the first three weeks of August, the average weekly total booking volume in the United States was 355,000 TEU, a month - on - month decrease of 7.1% compared to July. The average weekly booking volume of imports from China to the United States was 124,000 TEU, a month - on - month decrease of 9.6% compared to July [5]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: "【中信期货航运】出口至美国货量企稳,沿海港口集装箱吞吐量震荡运行 -- 数据报告20250909" [1] - Report Date: September 9, 2025 [1] Group 2: High - frequency Capacity - In Week 38 (September 14 - 21 planned capacity), the capacity of the US - West route rebounded to 386,000 TEU, a year - on - year increase of 48% and a month - on - month increase of 25.5%. The capacity of the US - East route was 210,000 TEU, a year - on - year increase of 19% and a month - on - month increase of 23.6% [3] - The capacity of the China - Southeast Asia route remained at a high level, with a year - on - year positive growth of 71.6% and a month - on - month decline of 9% (the decline widened). In Week 37, the capacity of the China - North Europe route increased slightly month - on - month, reaching 349,000 TEU, a month - on - month increase of 3.1% and a year - on - year increase of 60.2%. The capacity of the Mediterranean route increased by 18.6% year - on - year and decreased by 3.5% month - on - month [3] Group 3: Container Volume of Cargo - Laden Containers Sent to the US - As of September 7, the container volume of cargo - laden container ships from China to the US reached 454,000 TEU, a 0.8% decline from the previous week, and the number of ships was 52, the same as the previous week. The container volume of cargo - laden containers from Vietnam to the US dropped to 96,000 TEU, a 45% decline from the previous week [3] Group 4: US Port Arrival Volume Data - In Week 35, the weekly arrival volume of imported goods in the US was 665,000 TEU, a 13.7% increase from the previous week. The weekly arrival volume of imported goods from China was 250,000 TEU, a 17.7% increase from the previous week. The weekly arrival volume from Vietnam was 80,000 TEU, a 4.7% increase from the previous week, reaching a new high [4] - In Week 36, the weekly arrival volume of imported goods in the US was 439,000 TEU, a 34% decline from the previous week. The weekly arrival volume of imported goods from China was 162,000 TEU, a 35.2% decline from the previous week. The weekly arrival volume from Vietnam was 56,000 TEU, a 30.4% decline from the previous week [4] Group 5: Domestic Port Throughput - In the week of September 7, the container throughput of Chinese ports increased by 0.9% month - on - month and 6.5% year - on - year, reaching 6646,000 TEU [4] Group 6: Vizion Booking Data - From August 18 - 25, the total bookings in the US were 336,000 TEU, a 5.2% decline from the previous week and a 17.2% decline from the same period last year. The bookings from China in the US were 122,000 TEU, a 3.2% decline from the previous week and a 30% decline from the same period last year [4] - In the first three weeks of August, the average weekly total bookings in the US were 355,000 TEU, a 7.1% decline from July. The average weekly bookings of imports from China in the US were 124,000 TEU, a 9.6% decline from July [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The freight rate center continues to decline, with the HMM price revised down to $1700/FEU. The 10 - month contract is under downward pressure, and short - allocation is relatively safe, but attention should be paid to the price level at which shipping companies try to stabilize prices. The 12 - month contract follows the off - peak and peak season pattern, but the risk lies in the bottom of the current freight rate decline. The main contract shows a weak and fluctuating trend, and it is advisable to short the 10 - month contract at high prices [1][4][5]. - 2025 is a major year for container ship deliveries, with 180 ships delivered so far, totaling 1.452 million TEU of capacity [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Prices - As of September 4, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European route futures contracts is 80,613 lots, and the daily trading volume is 37,244 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts are $1518.70, $1247.80, $1443.00, $1607.40, $1300.70, and $1676.00 respectively [6]. 2. Spot Prices - Online quotes from various shipping companies show a general downward trend in freight rates. For example, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam prices in weeks 37 and 38 have decreased, and many shipping companies' prices in September and October have also declined. The current 9 - month freight rate center has dropped to around $1900/FEU [1][4]. 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - MSC and the Gemini Alliance have announced blank sailings during the Chinese Golden Week. In September, there are 3 blank sailings, and in October, there are 10 blank sailings and 7 TBNs. HPL has announced two additional ships in October, with a total capacity of about 11,500 TEU. As of August 31, 2025, 180 container ships have been delivered in 2025, with a total capacity of 1.452 million TEU [3][7]. 4. Supply Chain - Geopolitical factors, such as the Israeli military's actions in Gaza, may affect the shipping supply chain. The Israeli military is expanding its operations in Gaza, which may lead to potential impacts on shipping routes and trade [2]. 5. Demand and European Economy - The US NRF estimates that the demand for container imports in the US from September to December 2025 will decline by about 20% compared to the same period in 2024. The demand in the US line is weak, and if ships from the US line are transferred to the European line in the fourth quarter, it may put pressure on European line prices [5].

Core Viewpoint - China COSCO Shipping Holdings Co., Ltd. (stock code: 601919.SH; 01919.HK) reported a steady growth in operational performance for the first half of 2025, despite external uncertainties, showcasing strong resilience and competitive advantages in the industry [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company achieved operating revenue of RMB 109.099 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.78% [1]. - Earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) reached RMB 25.494 billion, up 3.40% year-on-year, with an EBIT margin of 23.37% [1]. - Net profit amounted to RMB 20.208 billion, reflecting a 4.95% year-on-year growth [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 17.536 billion, an increase of 3.95% year-on-year, indicating robust development resilience [1]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on two key transformation strategies: digital intelligence and green low-carbon initiatives [2]. - In digital transformation, China COSCO is expanding the application of artificial intelligence across various operational platforms, enhancing pricing, space allocation, empty container turnover efficiency, and fuel management [2]. - For green transformation, the company has ordered 42 methanol dual-fuel new ships and is planning to retrofit existing vessels, marking significant progress in fleet modernization [2]. Industry Positioning - China COSCO's EBIT and EBIT margin are leading within the international shipping industry, highlighting its competitive edge [1]. - The company is actively collaborating with ports and supply chain partners to establish green shipping corridors and enhance decarbonization efforts [2]. Future Outlook - The company plans to continue deepening its two major transformation strategies to address industry challenges and solidify its leading position [3].

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the resilience and growth of China COSCO Shipping Holdings Co., Ltd. in the face of global trade disruptions, showcasing its strategic focus on container shipping and digital supply chain integration [1][2]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 109.099 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.78% - The EBIT was 25.494 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 3.40% - The EBIT margin reached 23.37% - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 17.536 billion yuan [1]. Business Strategy - The company continues to deepen its core container shipping business and digital supply chain operations, enhancing synergy between the two sectors to provide integrated logistics solutions [1]. - As of June 30, 2025, the self-owned container fleet comprised 557 vessels, with a total capacity exceeding 3.4 million TEUs [1]. - The company has demonstrated market sensitivity by dynamically adjusting capacity on key routes, including Far East to Northwest Europe and trans-Pacific routes, while expanding supply to emerging markets [1]. Port and Shipping Coordination - The company has strengthened its collaborative layout in global port hubs, enhancing its integrated service capabilities through effective "mainline + feeder" configurations at key ports like Qianhai and Piraeus [1]. Innovation and Sustainability - China COSCO Shipping is focused on customer needs, driving product innovation across the supply chain and integrating digital and green technologies to build a sustainable competitive advantage [2]. - The company has made significant strides in digital transformation and green low-carbon initiatives, including the order of 42 dual-fuel methanol-powered vessels with a total capacity of 780,000 TEUs [2]. Response to Global Trade Changes - The company is navigating profound adjustments in the global trade landscape, influenced by U.S. trade policies and geopolitical tensions, while also addressing the impacts of technological and green revolutions [2]. - The company aims to enhance its global digital supply chain operations and investment platform through core business upgrades, ecosystem development, and technological innovation [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Container Shipping**: The EC futures market shows a weak shock, and the spot freight rate in September is in a rapid decline channel. The tariff pressure in the second half of the year is expected to reduce the support for freight rates, and the competition among shipping companies may intensify. The recommended trading strategies are short - term bearish shock for single - side trading and rolling operation of reverse spread for 10 - 12 contracts [5][7][10]. - **Dry Bulk Shipping**: The dry bulk freight index increased on August 22. The freight rate of Capesize ships increased, and the Far East Dry Bulk Index (FDI) also rose on August 25. The freight rate of large - scale ships is expected to recover in the short term, and the medium - sized ship market is expected to be slightly stronger in shock [17][18]. - **Oil Tanker Transportation**: The crude oil market and the refined oil market have different trends. The crude oil market is in a tight supply - demand pattern, which supports the increase of freight rates, while the refined oil market is relatively stable with weak demand. Short - term attention should be paid to the impact of concentrated bookings on the Middle East route in September, and long - term attention should be paid to the impact of environmental protection elimination and supply - demand reshaping on freight rates [26][27]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Container Shipping Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - **Futures Market**: On August 26, EC2510 closed at 1318.9 points, down 2.88% from the previous day. The latest SCFIS European line reported 1990.2 points on Monday after the market, down 8.7% month - on - month. The final delivery settlement price of EC2508 was 2135.28 points [5]. - **Spot Market**: In September, the spot freight rate is in a rapid decline channel, and the loading rate of shipping companies has decreased. MSK's offer for Shanghai - Rotterdam in WK37 is 1900 US dollars/FEU, down 200 US dollars from last week. The freight rates of other shipping companies also show a downward trend [7]. - **Tariff Impact**: The US plans to complete the investigation of adding furniture import tariffs within 50 days. In 2024, the container volume of furniture, home furnishings and lighting imported by the US accounted for 13% of the total imports. If the tariff is implemented, it will bring cost pressure to major exporting countries such as China and Vietnam [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading is recommended to be bearish in shock, and the valuation center of the October contract is expected to be revised down. For arbitrage, it is recommended to conduct reverse spread rolling operation for the 10 - 12 contracts [10]. Industry News - The US Vice - President mentioned that the US currently imposes a 54% tariff on China and has multiple dialogues with the Chinese government to end the trade war. The US may finalize a trade agreement with South Korea. Trump claims to impose tariffs on imported furniture, and the interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve is considered appropriate [11][12]. - Regarding the Red Sea situation, Trump said it is difficult to deal with Netanyahu, and an outcome is expected in 2 - 3 weeks. Iran will start a new round of talks with the UK, France and Germany. The leader of Hezbollah refuses to disarm, and Israel is ready to support Lebanon in disarming Hezbollah [13][14][15]. Dry Bulk Shipping Market Analysis and Outlook - **Freight Index**: On August 22, the Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index rose 2.69% to 1944 points. The Capesize ship freight index rose about 3.33% to 2793 points, the Panamax ship freight index rose 2.97% to 1770 points, and the Supramax ship freight index rose 1.35% to 1424 points. On August 25, the Far East Dry Bulk Index (FDI) reported 1316.81 points for the comprehensive index, up 4.7% month - on - month [17][18]. - **Spot Freight Rate**: On August 22, the freight rate of the Capesize ship iron ore route from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was 23.44 US dollars/ton, up 0.73% month - on - month, and the freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao was 9.40 US dollars/ton, up 7.37% month - on - month. The weekly freight rate data shows that the freight rates of some routes have increased or decreased [19]. - **Shipping Data**: From August 18 to 24, 2025, the global iron ore shipping volume decreased by 90.8 tons month - on - month. In the fourth week of August 2025, the cumulative shipment of soybeans in Brazil was 725.78 million tons, and the cumulative shipment of corn was 496.04 million tons [20]. - **Incident Impact**: An accident occurred at the Simfer mine in Guinea, and all activities at the mine have been suspended. The accident may affect the project progress, but the project is not expected to stop for a long time [21]. Industry News - In July 2025, India's coal imports decreased, with different demands for different types of coal. The free trade agreement negotiation between Canada and the South American Common Market will restart. The Brazilian court overturned the decision of the antitrust regulatory agency to suspend the "soybean fallow agreement" [24][25]. Oil Tanker Transportation Market Analysis and Outlook - **Freight Index**: On August 22, the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) was 1042, up 1.26% month - on - month and 16.16% year - on - year. The Baltic Clean Tanker Index (BCTI) was 618, up 0.65% month - on - month and down 1.28% year - on - year [26][27]. - **Market Trend**: The crude oil market is in an upward trend, with increasing demand for VLCC and Suezmax, and a tight supply - demand pattern supports the increase of freight rates. The refined oil market is relatively stable, with weak demand and sufficient supply of some ship types, and the freight rate maintains a shock trend [27]. Industry News - India will buy oil from the most profitable places, including Russia. The continuous rebound of oil prices is due to geopolitical disturbances and supply interruption risks. The market continues to pay attention to the Russia - Ukraine issue, and oil prices will continue to fluctuate [28].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The shipping rate center is continuously declining, and attention should be paid to Maersk's quotes in the first week of September [1][5]. - The 8 - month contract has seen the top of the shipping rate, and the continuous downward revision of the shipping rate brings uncertainty to the estimated delivery settlement price. The estimated final delivery settlement price is around 2100 points [4]. - The 10 - month contract is mainly for short allocation, and the focus is on the downward slope of the shipping rate. It is relatively safe to short - allocate, but the key lies in the downward space. In the context of a large discount, it is relatively safe to short the EC2510 contract on rallies, but do not over - short [5][6]. - The seasonal pattern of peak and off - peak seasons still exists for the 12 - month contract, and the risk lies in whether the Suez Canal will reopen. If it reopens, the seasonal pattern may be challenged [6]. - The main contract oscillates weakly, and it is advisable to short the 10 - month contract on rallies [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Prices - As of August 18, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts is 78,292.00 lots, and the daily trading volume is 37,185.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts are 1537.90, 1331.00, 1494.90, 2088.20, 1373.10, and 1789.70 respectively [7]. 2. Spot Prices - On August 15, 2025, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1820.00 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - West Coast of the United States) price was 1759.00 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - East Coast of the United States) price was 2719.00 US dollars/FEU. On August 18, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 2180.17 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - West Coast of the United States) was 1106.29 points [7]. 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - In August 2025, there were many additional ships. Maersk added two additional ships in WEEK32 and WEEK35, and the OA alliance also added two additional ships. HPL announced two additional ships for October. The weekly average capacity from China to European base ports in August was 283,100 TEU, in September it was 315,800 TEU, and in October it was 281,300 TEU. There were 3 TBNs and 2 blank sailings in September (both blank sailings were from the PA alliance), and 10 TBNs and 1 blank sailing in October [3]. - As of August 15, 2025, 167 container ships with a total capacity of 1.318 million TEU have been delivered in 2025. Among them, 51 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU and a total capacity of 768,000 TEU, and 8 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU and a total capacity of 176,880 TEU have been delivered [8]. 4. Supply Chain - There is information about the global container ship capacity congestion ratio, congestion capacity, ship speeds of different sizes, and the number of container ships passing through the Suez Canal, Cape of Good Hope, and Panama Canal, but no specific data is summarized in the text [56][60][71]. 5. Demand and European Economy - There is information about port container throughput, EU 27 industrial production index, EU 27 imports from China, euro - zone consumer confidence index, EU 27 retail sales year - on - year, China's export volume to the EU, and Asia - North America and Asia - Europe trade volumes, but no specific data is summarized in the text [75][76][80].