研究所 航运研发报告 航运日报 2026 年 1 月 6 日 航运日报 第一部分 集装箱航运——集运指数（欧线） 期货从业证号： F3084078 投资咨询证号： Z0018656 联系方式： 1 / 5 研究员：贾瑞林 研究所 航运研发报告 一、市场分析及策略推荐 :jiaruilin_qh@chinastock.com.cn | 银河期货集运指数 | | | | （欧线） 日报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 增减幅 | 持仓量(手) | 增减幅 | | EC2602 | 1,872.7 | 17.2 | 0.93% | 21,716.0 | -5.18% | 24,996.0 | -4.03% | | EC2604 | 1,223.8 | 25.8 | 2.15% | 10,278.0 | 20.04% | 23,930.0 | 5.75% | | EC2606 | 1,417.0 | 28.0 | 2.0 ...

红海危机持续两年后，大型班轮公司普遍面临多重压力：航程被迫延长、燃油及时间成本攀升，运价却持续疲弱。对航运巨头而言，这种结构性矛盾正在拖 累盈利。于是，在绕行好望角两年后，航运公司开始利用窗口期试探恢复红海航线。但有人担忧，全球供应链已逐渐适应了船舶绕行好望角的新常态，此过 程极易导致短期内的船期混乱、空箱调度失衡以及运力再次过剩。 恢复航线 苏伊士运河——红海这一国际航运要道，连通红海与地中海，是世界上最繁忙的水道之一。而曼德海峡位于红海南端，连接红海和亚丁湾，是船只往返于印 度洋和大西洋之间的必经之地。根据Clarksons Research的数据，在袭击发生前，该航道约占全球海运贸易量的10%。 2023年10月巴以冲突爆发后，红海局势突然升级，包括马士基、赫伯罗特等在内的全球主要集装箱航运公司，相继放弃经由红海穿越苏伊士运河的航线，改 为选择绕行非洲好望角的更长航线。 近期，随着地区紧张局势出现一定的缓和迹象，特别是部分被扣押船员的获释，全球航运业关于"红海复航"的讨论再度升温。12月19日，航运巨头马士基的 集装箱船"MAERSK SEBAROK"号完成了穿越曼德海峡进入红海的航程。这艘6500标准 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The container shipping market in 2026 faces significant oversupply pressure. Demand growth is expected to slow down notably, with the restocking demands in Europe and the US diverging and having limited elasticity. Although emerging markets remain resilient, they cannot fully offset the weakness in traditional markets. The supply side will see continuous release of new capacity. If the Suez Canal resumes normal operation, it may exacerbate the global oversupply of shipping capacity. Coupled with the delivery pressure of large - scale vessels in 2026, the annual supply - demand gap will widen further. Policy risks are the key variables, and the ability to fulfill cargo volumes will be the core factor affecting freight rate fluctuations. Overall, the freight rate center will be under pressure in 2026, with limited upside potential during the peak season. Consider short - selling opportunities in the April and October contracts at high levels [3][59] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review in 2025 - **January 2025**: The market continued the upward trend from the end - of - year peak season in 2024, but the actual cargo volume fell short of expectations. With redundant supply (a 10% increase in weekly average capacity compared to the previous month) and the rising expectation of the Red Sea route resumption, the EC2504 contract price dropped from 1722 points to 1163 points, a cumulative decline of 32.4% [7] - **Around the Spring Festival in 2025**: Shipping companies expanded the scope of sailings cancellations to stabilize freight rates. The market price stopped falling and stabilized. The market expected a post - festival price increase, and the EC2504 contract price stood firmly above 1300 points. After the Spring Festival, shipping companies announced a freight rate increase in March, driving the contract price from a discount to a premium and starting a unilateral upward trend [7] - **After the Spring Festival - early April 2025**: Despite continuous price - hike signals from shipping companies, the actual implementation was poor. It was the traditional off - season, and the cargo volume recovery was below expectations. The capacity pressure from the concentrated delivery of new ships emerged (cumulative delivery in the first three quarters exceeded 300,000 TEU). The EC main contract fluctuated widely between 1500 - 1700 points, maintaining a pattern of "strong expectation, weak reality" [8] - **April - May 2025**: On April 2, the US government announced additional tariffs on China, causing a sharp drop in cargo volume on the US - West route. The capacity originally allocated to the US route was diverted to the European route, worsening the supply - demand imbalance. The EC2506 contract price fell from 1700 points to 1530 points, a 10% decline, and market panic spread [8] - **Mid - May - late June 2025**: The EC contract showed a downward - trending oscillation. As the Sino - US trade negotiation atmosphere improved, there was a rush of bookings on the US - West route. However, the US - line freight rate was weak, which affected the European - line market sentiment. The actual situation deviated from the market's previous expectations, pushing the EC contract price down [9] - **Late June - late July 2025**: The container shipping European - line futures market rose overall. The weighted index climbed from 1500 points to 1800 points. The positive sentiment in the commodity market and the tight supply - demand situation during the peak season drove the price up. The main contract smoothly transitioned from the 08 contract to the 10 contract, and the 12 contract also rose, forming a multi - contract upward pattern [10] - **Late July - late September 2025**: The market declined continuously. The off - season characteristics became obvious in mid - July, and the spot freight rate started to fall. The trading logic of the 10 contract shifted to be fundamentally driven. The 10 contract and far - month contracts entered a downward channel. In mid - August, the spot market decline intensified, and the 10 contract deviated from the 12 and 02 contracts. In the traditional off - season, the spot market price war emerged, and the 10 contract fell to below 1100 points. The 12 contract oscillated, and the 02 contract's price center rose slightly [11] - **September - end of November 2025**: Shipping companies repeatedly announced freight rate increases, but the actual implementation was weak. The EC12 contract price rose to 1960 points and then fell back to 1550 points. The rising expectation of a cease - fire in the Israel - Palestine conflict accelerated the discount process of far - month contracts, and the market worried more about the oversupply in 2026 [12] - **December 2025**: On the spot side, the PA alliance accumulated a large amount of cargo through low - price strategies in the first half of the month, and the blank sailings in the last two weeks eased the pressure. The market quotation stabilized at $2400/FEU, and the freight rate center increased by over $200 in late December. Leading shipping companies coordinated to support prices, boosting market confidence. The European seasonal stocking demand increased cargo volume, and the capacity utilization rate improved. The weekly average capacity on the European route shrank to 285,000 TEU in late December. The slow progress of the Red Sea route resumption did not add new negative factors to the supply side. The 2602 contract showed a bullish tendency, but overall, it was still a pattern of "strong expectation, weak reality" [12][13] 3.2 Supply Side 3.2.1 Static Capacity Supply - The supply pressure in the container shipping market remains huge. After a decline from 8 million TEU to 6 million TEU from mid - 2023 to mid - 2024, the total container ship orders reached a new high of 9.9 million TEU due to the Red Sea crisis. Orders are mainly for ships with a capacity of over 8000 TEU, and the order volume of ships with a capacity of over 17000 TEU (mostly for the European route) increased sharply from 960,000 TEU to 4 million TEU. The order volume of 12000 - 16999 TEU ships decreased, with new orders of 764,000 TEU and deliveries of 1.118 million TEU this year, while the 17000 + TEU ships had new orders of 1.841 million TEU and deliveries of 254,000 TEU [14][16] 3.2.2 Dynamic Capacity Supply - The market focuses more on short - to - medium - term capacity supply, which is affected by shipping schedules (capacity deployment), idle capacity, sailing speed, and port and canal congestion. - **Capacity Deployment**: The 17 routes priced in the SCFIS European line are operated by different alliances and companies. The weekly average capacity deployment on the European route in the third and fourth quarters increased by 10,000 - 20,000 TEU compared to last year, indicating sufficient supply [24] - **Idle Capacity and Sailing Speed**: The idle capacity is close to 780,000 TEU, at a normal level, and has little impact on freight rates. The sailing speed is slightly faster than the economic speed and has decreased compared to last year as the new ships have met the demand [27] - **In - Port Capacity**: The in - port capacity in European ports was relatively high in the first half of the year due to strikes but has returned to normal since late May, without seriously affecting the supply chain [33] 3.3 Demand Side 3.3.1 Tariff Issues - **2025 Performance**: In April, the Trump administration introduced "reciprocal tariffs" on China, initially at 34% and later raised to 145%, causing a more than 30% decline in China's exports to the US from April to May. China counter - imposed tariffs on US imports, initially at 84% and later raised to 125%. After a trade consultation in May, the retaliatory tariffs were temporarily suspended, and a 10% base tariff plus a 20% fentanyl - specific tariff was implemented until November 2026 [39] - **2026 Outlook**: High tariffs have significantly reduced demand on the US route, with the SCFI US - line freight rate down 40% year - on - year. Shipping companies have shifted capacity to other markets, intensifying the global supply - demand imbalance. China's exports to emerging markets such as ASEAN and Latin America increased by 10% - 15%, and the export proportion of products like machinery, electronics, and new - energy vehicles has risen. The US restocking demand may be delayed until the second quarter with limited elasticity, and the EU's anti - subsidy investigations and green trade barriers will continue to pressure the market. The demand growth in the global container shipping market may slow down [48][49] 3.3.2 Red Sea Issues - **2025 Situation**: A partial cease - fire agreement in the Israel - Palestine conflict in October led to CMA CGM's trial resumption of the Red Sea route, and the Suez Canal Authority promoted related negotiations and offered toll discounts. However, due to security concerns from the Houthi rebels and pirate activities, the annual resumption rate of the Red Sea route in 2025 was only 30% of the pre - pandemic level. Ship detours around the Cape of Good Hope increased the voyage by 30%, reducing effective capacity by 30% and increasing fuel costs by 40%. The SCFI European - line freight rate dropped 50% year - on - year, with limited rebound during the peak season [52][53] - **2026 Outlook**: If the cease - fire in Gaza continues until the first quarter of 2026, the Red Sea route may resume in March. If the resumption is successful, the global container shipping oversupply will intensify by 30%, the weekly average capacity on the European route will increase by 10,000 - 20,000 TEU, and the peak - season freight rate center may drop by over 30%. If the detour continues, the supply growth will slow to 5%, but the demand will still be pressured by the economic divergence in Europe and the US, and the freight rate center will face downward pressure [54][55]

Group 1 - Company conducted a share buyback of 2.95 million shares at an average price of HKD 13.56 per share, totaling approximately HKD 40.02 million, with a cumulative buyback of 326 million shares, representing 11.32% of total share capital [1] - The recent buyback occurred against a backdrop of a nearly 30% decline from the year's high, indicating management's belief that the current valuation deviates from the company's actual value [1] - As of the end of Q3 2023, the company had cash reserves of CNY 247.3 billion, demonstrating sufficient financial strength to execute the buyback, which aims to optimize capital structure and signal confidence in long-term development [1] Group 2 - Company is a core listed platform under China Ocean Shipping Group, with stock codes 01919.HK and 601919.SH, recognized as a leading integrated container shipping service provider globally [2] - As of June 2023, the company operated a fleet of 494 vessels, totaling approximately 2.92 million TEUs, with a network covering over 1,500 ports in more than 160 countries and regions [2] - In 2022, the company achieved record performance with revenue of CNY 391.06 billion and a net profit of CNY 109.59 billion, although 2023 has seen performance pressures due to declining freight rates [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Market demand is gradually improving, and freight rates are being gradually corrected in the second half of December. There is a high probability that Maersk's prices will rise in the first week of January, and attention should be paid to the time when freight rates peak. The 12 - month contract is expected to have a delivery settlement price between 1600 - 1700 points. The 2 - month contract is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger. The far - month contracts face the pressure of the Suez Canal's resumption of navigation, and their valuations may be revised downward [1][4][5][6][7]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Prices - As of December 10, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index (European line) futures was 61,800 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 40,741 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts were 1665.20, 1080.70, 1225.60, 1378.90, 1025.00, and 1655.10 respectively [8]. 2. Spot Prices - The SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price announced on December 5 was 1400 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price was 1550 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price was 2315 US dollars/FEU. The SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) on December 8 was 1509.10 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 960.51 points [8]. 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - In December, the remaining 4 - week average monthly capacity was 314,700 TEU, and the capacities in weeks 50, 51, 52, and 53 were 334,500, 289,600, 315,000, and 319,000 TEU respectively. In January, the average monthly capacity was 331,700 TEU, and in February, it was 262,900 TEU. There were 4 blank sailings in December (1 by the OA Alliance and 3 by the MSC/PA Alliance), and 4 TBNs in January, all from the OA Alliance. Maersk added a new sailing ship, MAERSK EINDHOVEN (13,092 TEU), in week 51. As of December 7, 2025, 245 container ships had been delivered in 2025, with a total capacity of 1.99 million TEU [3][8]. 4. Supply Chain - Maersk and Hapag - Lloyd launched the Cape of Good Hope network due to the continuous turmoil in the Red Sea. There is no specific time to change the east - west routes of the Gemini to pass through the Red Sea. The CMA FAL1 route (Europe - Asia) will fully resume operation in January 2026, and the FAL3 route has started a single trial run [2]. 5. Demand and European Economy - Information from various surveys shows that the cargo volume is gradually recovering. The delivery settlement price of the 12 - month contract is the arithmetic average of the SCFIS on December 15, 22, and 29. The 2 - month contract's delivery settlement price basically reflects the spot price center at the end of January. If the duration of the shipping companies' contract price - holding is extended and high prices are achieved in January 2026, the 2 - month contract may be at parity with the 12 - month contract [4][6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 12 - month contract is expected to fluctuate, while the February contract is expected to fluctuate strongly. There is currently no arbitrage opportunity. The far - month contracts face the pressure of the Suez Canal's resumption of navigation, and their valuations may be revised downward. The implementation of the price increase in January and the delivery of container ships in 2025 need to be closely monitored [6][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures Price - As of December 4, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index (European line) futures was 64,733 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 31,055 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts were 1585.00, 1090.10, 1255.10, 1385.60, 1040.20, and 1649.10 respectively [6]. 2. Spot Price - Online quotes from various shipping companies show price changes from December. For example, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam price increased from 1440/2240 in the second week of December to 1530/2400 in the third week, and it announced a price increase letter of 2275/3500 for January. The upper - half - month price of MSC + Premier Alliance was 1485/2465 in December, and the lower - half - month price was 1605/2665. The 12 - month contract settlement price is the arithmetic average of the SCFIS on December 15th, 22nd, and 29th. The preliminary estimate of SCFIS on December 15th is around 1600 - 1650 points, and around 1700 - 1750 points on December 22nd [1][4]. 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - In December, the monthly average weekly capacity was 318,400 TEU, and in January, it was 328,000 TEU, with 4 blank sailings in December and 3 TBNs in January (all from the OA Alliance). Maersk added an extra - sailing ship in week 51. As of November 29, 2025, 243 container ships had been delivered in 2025, with a total capacity of 1.985 million TEU [3][7]. 4. Supply Chain - Maersk and Hapag - Lloyd launched a Cape of Good Hope network due to the ongoing turmoil in the Red Sea. There is currently no specific time to change the east - west route of the Gemini to pass through the Red Sea. The resumption of the Suez Canal in 2026 may increase the effective capacity supply and put downward pressure on freight rates [2][6]. 5. Demand and European Economy - No specific content directly related to demand and European economy analysis is provided in the text other than some data charts mentioned, so no detailed summary can be made.

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q3 2025, the company reported total net revenues of $56.9 million, a 5.1% increase from $54.1 million in Q3 2024 [24] - Net income for Q3 2025 was $29.7 million, compared to $27.6 million in Q3 2024 [24] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2025 increased to $38.8 million from $36.1 million in Q3 2024 [25] - Basic and diluted earnings per share for Q3 2025 were $4.27 and $4.25, respectively, compared to $3.97 and $3.95 for the same period last year [26] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The average charter rate per vessel per day increased by 10.7% in Q3 2025 compared to Q3 2024 [24] - The company operated an average of 22 vessels in Q3 2025, earning an average time charter equivalent rate of $29,284 per day, compared to 23 vessels earning $26,446 per day in Q3 2024 [30] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index declined to its lowest level in nearly two years by late September 2025, but stabilized and increased by 30% in October and early November [10] - The average second-hand price index rose by about 4.4% in Q3 2025 compared to Q2 2025, supported by limited vessel availability and strong buyer interest [10] - The global fleet expanded by 6% year-to-date, with recycling activity remaining subdued [11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company remains committed to a $20 million share repurchase plan, having repurchased 466,000 shares for approximately $10.5 million [4] - The company has secured charters for four new vessels at rates of $35,500 per day for four years, indicating a strategic focus on long-term contracts [7][21] - The company aims to maintain leverage around 50%, adjusting based on market conditions [74] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the market remains mixed, with time charter rates holding firm despite a decline in the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index [18] - Concerns over oversupply and increased competition among carriers may pressure rates from 2027 onwards [19] - The company anticipates a conservative approach to fleet management, potentially scrapping older vessels if market conditions worsen [83] Other Important Information - The company declared a quarterly dividend of $0.70 per share for Q3 2025, reflecting an annualized yield of approximately 5% [4] - The total outstanding bank debt as of September 30, 2025, was about $224 million, with a cost of debt around 5.9% [21] Q&A Session Summary Question: Expectations for scheduled off-hire days for Q4 and 2026 - Management indicated minimal dry docking scheduled for the next 12 months, with likely off-hire for Q4 being almost zero [44][45] Question: Impact of container ship ordering on supply and rates - Management acknowledged that increased ordering could pressure rates from 2027, but noted strong coverage for 2027 with 52% locked in [48][49] Question: Willingness to book long-term contracts - Management explained that the aging fleet in smaller vessels is driving demand for long-term contracts as charters seek to secure tonnage [62] Question: Remaining commitments for new builds - Management confirmed that approximately $200 million remains to be paid for the new builds, with payments structured around delivery timelines [67] Question: Strategy on selling older assets - Management stated a conservative approach, considering scrapping older vessels if market conditions decline significantly [83][84]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The freight rate entered a correction period in the second half of November, and attention should be paid to Maersk's price offer in the last week of November [1]. - The cease - fire agreement between Israel and Hamas is fragile, and the second - stage cease - fire agreement is still "out of reach." [3] - The 12 - month contract trading focuses on the rhythm, and the overall valuation support is constantly rising. The 2026 February contract may have a large expectation gap but is currently suppressed by the resumption of navigation expectations [4][5]. Summary by Directory Market Analysis - Online quotes: Different shipping companies have different price quotes for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route in November and December. For example, Maersk's 46 - week quote for Shanghai - Rotterdam is 1335/2230, and it has issued a price increase letter for December to 2080/3200 [1]. - Geopolitical situation: The first - stage cease - fire agreement between Israel and Hamas has been in effect for one month, but its implementation has been full of twists and turns, and the second - stage agreement is still uncertain [3]. - Dynamic supply: The average weekly capacity in the remaining 4 weeks of November is 246,500 TEU, and the monthly average weekly capacity in December is 338,800 TEU. There are 10 blank sailings and 1 TBN in November and 3 TBNs in December [3]. Contract Analysis - 12 - month contract: It focuses on the trading rhythm. The shipping companies will adjust the supply to keep the freight rate at a high level. The price increase expectations and actual implementation will alternate. If each price increase letter lands at about 300 US dollars/FEU for three rounds, the price in the second half of December may reach 3000 US dollars/FEU, and the valuation ceiling of the 12 - month contract may be around 2100 points [4]. - 2026 February contract: There may be a large expectation gap, but it is currently suppressed by the resumption of navigation expectations. Attention should be paid to how the exchange defines the delivery settlement price [5]. Market Data - As of November 10, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts is 70,044.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 29,041.00 lots. The closing prices of different contracts are as follows: EC2602 is 1604.90, EC2604 is 1166.10, etc. [6]. - On November 7, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price is 1323 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price is 2212 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price is 2848 US dollars/FEU. On November 10, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) is 1504.80 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) is 1329.71 points [6]. - In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of November 9, 2025, 226 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.879 million TEU [6]. Strategy - Unilateral: The 12 - month contract will fluctuate. - Arbitrage: None at present.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The upward momentum of freight rates in the second half of November is insufficient, and the EC futures market declined on November 6. Spot freight rates show that the long - term cargo of shipping companies has improved, but the upward momentum in the second half of November has weakened. The demand from November to December is expected to gradually improve, but attention should be paid to the impact of possible tariff adjustments on the shipping rhythm. In terms of supply, the weekly average capacity from Shanghai to the 5 Nordic ports is increasing. Short - term attention should be paid to the shipping companies' cargo - collecting performance and the impact of the adjusted last trading day on the EC2602 contract valuation [7][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Container Shipping - Container Shipping Index (European Line) 3.1.1 Futures Market - The closing prices of EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, and EC2610 contracts decreased, with declines of - 5.03%, - 3.09%, - 1.80%, - 0.83%, - 0.88%, and - 0.25% respectively. The trading volume of most contracts decreased, except for EC2608 and EC2610 which increased by 44.58% and 116.94% respectively. The positions of most contracts decreased, except for EC2602 which increased by 1.22% and EC2610 which increased by 12.23% [6]. - The spreads between different contracts also changed. For example, the spread of EC12 - EC02 decreased by 46.8, and the spread of EC12 - EC04 decreased by 76.2 [6]. 3.1.2 Container Freight Rates - SCFIS European Line index was 1208.71 points, with a week - on - week decrease of - 7.92% and a year - on - year decrease of - 46.48%. SCFIS US West Line index was 1267.15 points, with a week - on - week increase of 14.43% and a year - on - year decrease of - 54.40%. The SCFI comprehensive index was 1550.70 points, with a week - on - week increase of 10.49% and a year - on - year decrease of - 29.04% [6]. 3.1.3 Fuel Costs - The price of WTI crude oil near - month contract was $59.48 per barrel, with a current ratio decrease of - 1.13% and a year - on - year decrease of - 16.69%. The price of Brent crude oil near - month contract was $63.28 per barrel, with a current ratio decrease of - 1.03% and a year - on - year decrease of - 15.4% [6]. 3.2 Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation 3.2.1 Market Analysis - MSK's WK47 weekly quote of $2250 was lower than market expectations, and the upward momentum of freight rates in the second half of November was insufficient, leading to a decline in the EC futures market. The spot price of SCFIS European Line decreased by 7.9%, slightly exceeding market expectations, mainly due to the change in the settlement index rhythm caused by the rolling and delay of some ships in the second half of October. Maersk expects the interference in the Red Sea area to last for a whole year and is cautious about the fourth - quarter development due to a large number of new ships entering the market. The Ministry of Commerce announced the adjustment of relevant restrictions on the US from November 10, and attention should be paid to the impact on shipping volume and rhythm [7]. 3.2.2 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral trading: It is expected that the shipping companies' upward momentum in the second half of November will weaken, and the futures market has already factored in peak - season expectations. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [9][10]. 3.3 Industry News - Maersk has selected New Times Shipbuilding to build 8 + 4 18000TEU dual - fuel LNG - powered container ships, with new ships expected to be delivered from 2028 to 2029. The total cost of all 12 ships will reach $2.316 billion if the optional orders are confirmed [10]. - The EU - China Chamber of Commerce expressed deep concern about the EU's investigation into the so - called subsidy issue of Chinese enterprises, emphasizing that the EU's "Foreign Subsidies Regulation" should not be used as a unilateral tool for protectionism [10].

Core Insights - Maersk's Q3 2025 earnings exceeded expectations, prompting an upward revision of its full-year profit forecast and global container market growth predictions [1][2] Financial Performance - Q3 2025 revenue was $14.206 billion, a decrease of 9.9% from $15.762 billion in the same period last year [1][2] - Underlying profit for Q3 2025 was $939 million, down 69.7% from $3.097 billion year-over-year [1][2] - Earnings per share were $69, lower than $193 in the previous year but above analysts' expectations of $62 [1] Profit Forecast and Market Growth - The company raised its full-year underlying EBITDA forecast to between $9 billion and $9.5 billion, up from a previous estimate of $8 billion to $9.5 billion [2] - The global container market is now expected to grow approximately 4%, an increase from the prior forecast of 2% to 4% [2] Market Dynamics - Exports from Far East Asia, particularly China, continue to drive robust cargo volume growth [3] - Despite a contraction in cargo volume to North America, especially from China to the U.S., consumer demand has shown surprising resilience [3][4] - Maersk's ability to adjust its profit expectations reflects its strength amid mixed performance from industry peers [3] Operational Resilience - The company has demonstrated considerable resilience to macroeconomic shocks, adapting to complex supply chain needs despite adverse tariff measures [4] - Ongoing disruptions in Red Sea shipping are expected to persist throughout the year, alleviating some global overcapacity issues and boosting freight rates earlier this year [4]