集运指数（欧线）观点： 震荡整理，暂时观望 国泰君安期货研究所 郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 首席分析师/能化联席行政负责人·黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 日期：2025年11月23日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 综述 01 本周集运指数（欧线）观点总结：震荡整理，暂时观望 供应 12月空班数量4艘，已无待定航次，加班船1艘，周均运力仍维持31.6万TEU/周。过去一周的变化在于：①马士基52周增派加班船 MAERSK EINDHOVEN （+13,000TEU，挂靠宁波，不挂靠上海）；②达飞51周FAL3航线由正常派船（CMA CGM CHAMPS ELYSEES）改为空班（-23,000TEU）；③MSC 51周Britannia航线由待 定改为正常派船（MSC ANGOLA，+14,000TEU）；④51周FE3航线ONE INFINITY调配至50周FE4航线。旬度级别来看，上半月（49-50周）平均运力32.4万TEU，显著高于 下半月（51-52周）平均运力30.7万 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current view on the Container Shipping Index (Europe Line) is a volatile market [1][4] - For the 2510 contract, if the price increase is implemented, the delivery price will likely be within 1160 points; if not, it will likely be within 1100 points (closer to 1000 points) [6] - For the 2512 contract, due to the late Chinese New Year in 2026 and increasing over - capacity pressure, it should not be over - estimated, and it is expected to fluctuate widely between 1550 - 1800 points, with a preference for unilateral waiting and seeing [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - In September, the number of blank sailings decreased by 1 to 6, and the weekly average capacity remained at 296,000 TEU/week. In October, the weekly average capacity was slightly revised down to 265,000 TEU/week. In November, the weekly average capacity was 308,000 TEU/week, with the number of blank sailings remaining at 5, and the number of pending sailings increasing by 1. The weekly average capacity in November increased by 9.4% year - on - year and 16.1% month - on - month [4][57] 3.2 Demand - The basis for the spot market price increase is that there has been a 10 - 20% rolling rate for more than 2 consecutive weeks, but the ships during the National Day holiday generally do not meet this condition, and there are large differences among shipping companies. The loading performance of Gemini and Cosco is better, while that of the PA Alliance is poor [5] 3.3 Valuation - The price center for weeks 40 - 41 dropped to the range of $1380 - 1420/FEU, and the SCFIS index was approximately in the range of 960 - 1000 points (±30 points). Some shipping companies have announced price increases for late October, but the probability of the price increase being implemented is uncertain [5] 3.4 Historical Freight (Monthly) - The document provides historical freight data from 2009 - 2024 for different months, including data for January - December each year, and shows the month - on - month and year - on - year changes [10] 3.5 Price - The document tracks the spot freight rates of major shipping companies and the SCFIS and SCFI indices, showing their changes over time [16][18][19] 3.6 Demand Side - In August 2025, China's US - dollar - denominated export year - on - year growth rate declined from 7.2% in July to 4.4%. Exports to the US further declined, while exports to the EU continued to grow at a high rate, and exports to ASEAN increased significantly [32] - In July, Asia's container exports to Europe, North America, Central and South America, and within Asia all showed different degrees of change in terms of volume and year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates [45][46][47][48] 3.7 Supply Side - The document details the shipping schedules and capacity changes of European lines from September to November 2025, including the number of blank sailings, overtime ships, and pending sailings [57][58] - The speed of container fleets of different sizes has slightly decreased, and the number of idle fleets of different sizes as of September 12 is also provided [71] - The document shows the congestion situation of container ships in ports around the world, including China, the UK, Europe, the Mediterranean, Southeast Asia, North America, etc. [73][74][75]

集运指数（欧线）观点： 逢高布空2510；10-12反套逢高减仓 国泰君安期货研究所 首席分析师/能化联席行政负责人·黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 日期：2025年6月15日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 综述 01 核心观点：逢高布空2510；10-12反套逢高减仓 过去一周，集运指数高位震荡，主力2508合约震荡区间2000~2200点，次主力2510合约自1350点附近反弹至1450点。 基本面方面，26周（6月23日-6月29日）各家班轮公司定价风格有所差异和起伏，Gemini联盟26周由于是大船，舱位总量环比25周略增1万TEU，月底定价策 略偏保守；马士基26周欧基开舱2700美元/FEU，环比25周回落100美元/FEU，线下指数约舱位仍在收货；赫伯罗特线上电商出单航次特价进行收货。OA联盟26周CES、 AEU7停航，华东区域收货偏好，均价维持在3150美元/FEU附近；华南由于主要商品白电的出口未有起色，整体收货不如华东，25周长荣、 ...