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集运指数(欧线)月报-20251024
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-10-24 11:22
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The container shipping long - term contract season has gradually started. With the improvement of long - term contract cargo volume of shipping companies, the spot freight rate stopped falling and rebounded in October. The freight rate is expected to continue to rise from November to December [3][4][153]. - The supply and demand situation shows that the cargo volume in October is in the off - season, and the shipping volume is expected to improve from November to December. The supply side has seen additional blank sailings by mainstream shipping companies [4][153]. - Sino - US ship sanctions have begun to levy port fees, which are expected to increase costs and may cause short - term supply chain disruptions [4][154]. - The progress of the cease - fire negotiation in the Middle East is tortuous, and the Sino - US tariff negotiation sentiment has eased. Attention should be paid to the subsequent negotiation progress [4][154]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In October, the container shipping market was still in the off - season. Affected by factors such as the long - term contract season, the cease - fire agreement in the Middle East, and the price adjustment of some shipping companies, the EC disk showed an overall volatile trend. By the end of October, with the improvement of long - term contract filling, the freight rate stabilized and rebounded, and the EC disk gradually strengthened [9]. 3.2 Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Shipping Company Cargo Collection and Freight Rate - The long - term contract season has arrived, and the spot freight rate has gradually stabilized and rebounded. However, the difference in cargo collection among shipping companies has led to a spread of 500 - 600 US dollars/FEU between mainstream shipping companies. The OA alliance has a good cargo collection situation, and the spot freight rate is expected to continue to rise [18]. - In October, the average value of SCFI decreased compared with September and last October. As of October 17, the SCFI comprehensive freight rate index increased compared with the previous period but decreased compared with the same period last year [19]. - The trans - Atlantic route capacity has decreased. In October, the average daily container ship capacity deployment in Europe decreased by 0.21% compared with the previous month, and the trans - Atlantic decreased by 3.14% [38]. - In October, the container ship rental market was still hot, and the average daily rent continued to rise. The average daily profit of container ships in October was 46,521 US dollars/day, a slight increase from September [42]. 3.2.2 Supply and Idle Capacity - In September, the global container new - ship delivery volume decreased by 23.8% month - on - month and 22.6% year - on - year. The new order volume increased by 31.9% month - on - month but decreased by 16% year - on - year. It is expected that there will be a new ship delivery peak starting from 2026 [47]. - In October, the global container idle capacity increased significantly compared with the previous month. As of October 19, 2025, the global container idle capacity was 815,000 TEU, an increase of 57.7% compared with the same period last month [65]. 3.2.3 Route and Port Conditions - As of October 21, 2025, there were 267 container ships on the European and Mediterranean routes detouring, accounting for about 70%. The cease - fire negotiation in the Middle East is tortuous, and it will take time for shipping companies to resume navigation [80]. - In October, there were frequent strikes in Nordic ports, which affected port operations and caused serious ship congestion. As of October 20, the global container port congestion index increased slightly compared with September [88][89]. - China has taken measures to levy special port fees on US ships, and some ships are trying to avoid the fees. The port fees on the Sino - US route will increase, and the single - box cost of container ships will also increase [121][124]. 3.2.4 Trade and Economic Situation - In September, China's exports showed strong resilience, with a year - on - year increase of 8.3%. China actively diversified its markets, and the export of mechanical and electrical products maintained an advantage [126][127]. - In September, the manufacturing PMI in the eurozone unexpectedly fell back into the contraction range, showing a weak manufacturing situation. The economic trends of Germany and France were different [144]. - In August 2025, the container shipping volume from Asia to Europe increased year - on - year, while that to North America decreased. The shipping volume from Asia to the world and the global container shipping volume also showed different trends [146]. 3.3 Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - The freight rate is expected to continue to rise from November to December. The supply side has additional blank sailings, and attention should be paid to the impact of tariff policies on the shipping rhythm [153][154]. - Strategy recommendations include continuing to hold long positions in EC2512 and considering taking profits at high levels for the 2 - 4 positive spread [7][154].