2025年12月30日 集运日报 (航运研究/组) SCFIS大幅上行,或因节前对资金态度,盘面冲高回落,已建议落袋后短期建议观望为主。 SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 12月29日 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (欧洲航线) 1742.64点, 较上期上涨9.7% 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (美西航线) 1301.41点, 较上期上涨35.3% 12月26日 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFl公布价格1656.32点,较上期上涨103.4点 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格1690USD/TEU,较上期上涨10.24% 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI美西航线2188USD/FEU,较上期上涨9.84% 12月26日 | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (综合指数) 1094.77点, 较上期上涨7.24% | | --- | | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (欧洲航线) 1144.37点, 较上期上涨7.22% | | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (美西航线) 1254.91点, 较上期上涨2.16% | | 12月26日 | | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（综合指数）112 ...

2025年12月30日 集运日报 (航运研究/组) SCFIS大幅上行,或因节前对资金态度,盘面冲高回落,已建议落袋后短期建议观望为主。 美国11月标普全球服务业PM1初值55,预期54.6,前值54.8。美国11月标普全球综合PMI初值54.8,为连续第二个月上涨,预期54.6,前值54.6, 中美关税问题仍以延期的形式作为短期的解决方案,运价走势的 逻辑还是回归传统季节性和红海何时复航的问题上,目前现货价 格小幅下降。综上述,我们认为,关税问题已经呈现边际化效 应,目前核心还是现货运价的走向,主力合约已经出现季节性反 弹,建议轻仓参与或观望。 SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 12月29日 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (欧洲航线) 1742.64点, 较上期上涨9.7% 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (美西航线) 1301.41点, 较上期上涨35.3% 12月26日 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFl公布价格1656.32点,较上期上涨103.4点 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格1690USD/TEU,较上期上涨10.24% 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI美西航线2188USD/FEU ...

2025年12月25日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) MSK商船首次通行红海，盘面冲高回落下，投资者需注意或将反转信号，已建议落袋后短期建议观望为主。 SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | 12月22日 | 12月19日 | | --- | --- | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）1589.20点，较上期上涨5.2% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（综合指数）1094.77点，较上期上涨3.20% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美西航线）962.10点，较上期上涨4.1% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（欧洲航线）1067.29点，较上期上涨0.30% | | 12月19日 | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（美西航线）1228.34点，较上期上涨19.28% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1552.92点，较上期上涨46.46点 | 12月19日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格1533USD/TEU，较上期下跌0.33% | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（综合指数）1124.73点，较上期上涨0.6% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数 ...

主力合约收付全部跌幅，建议全部止盈，符合日报预期，关注春节前出货行情，运价并无明显波动。 SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 2025年12月11日 賃运日报 (航运研究小组) | 12月8日 | 12月5日 | | --- | --- | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）1509.10点，较上期上涨1.7% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（综合指数）972.63点，较上期上涨2.77% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美西航线）960.51点，较上期上涨1.2% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（欧洲航线）1024.64点，较上期上涨7.67% | | 12月5日 | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（美西航线）881.66点，较上期下跌7.77% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1397.63 点，较上期下跌5.5点 | 12月5日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格1400USD/TEU, 较上期下跌0.28% | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（综合指数）1121.80点，较上期下跌0.1% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI美西航线155 ...

2025年12月11日 賃运日报 (航运研究小组) 主力合约收付全部跌幅，建议全部止盈，符合日报预期，关注春节前出货行情，运价并无明显波动。 "，并强烈谴责其将联合国工作人员移交特别刑事法院的做法。他强调，包括也门籍员工在内的联合国工作人员，在履行公务所涉行为方面依法享有司法豁 免权。发言人说，"我们敦促也门胡塞武装撤回相关移交决定，并立即释放所有被拘押的联合国、非政府组织和外交人员"。 (央视新闻) 财联社12月9日电，据新华社报道，巴勒斯坦伊斯兰版抗运动（哈马斯）高级官员胡萨姆·巴德兰9日发表声明说，关于加沙停火第二阶段的任何讨论，都必 须以谈判斡旋方、美国及所有相关方对以色列施压，以确保第一阶段协议所有条款全面落实为前提。声明驳斥了以军方近日关于"黄线"是加沙地带"新边 界"的说法，表示这番言论暴露了以色列未能遵守停火协议条款的事实。声明说，以色列仍阻止加沙地带南部拉法口岸双向通行，阻挠为加沙地带流离失所 者准备的帐篷进入，削减进入加沙地带的人道主义援助物资数量，同时继续在加沙地带条数。声明说，只要以色列继续违反协议，加沙停火第二阶段就不可 能启动。 地缘政治冲突事件、极端天气、外盘原油剧烈波动 SCF ...

2025年11月26日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 财联社11月17日电，据CCTV国际时讯报道，联合国安理会预计将于当地时间11月17日就一份涉加沙战后安排问题的决议草案进行表决。从联合国目前的 日程我排来看，相关表决有可能于美东时间当天下午，也就是北京时间明天（11月18日）清晨进行。将被付诸表决的决议草案由美国起草，旨在支持美国 总统特朗普提出的所谓"加沙和平计划"。据悉，安理会内部围绕这一草案已经过多轮谈判，最新版本中主要有几项内容目前存在争议: 首先是该草案将授 权组建一支"国际稳定部队"，该部队将与以色列、埃及以及新丘培训的巴勒斯坦警察合作，协助保障边境地区安全，实现加沙地带非军事化，并致力于" 永久解除非国家武装团体的武器"，保护平民，并确保人道主义援助通道畅通；草案还授权成立一个"和平委员会"——也就是加沙地带的过渡台理机构, 理论上将由特朗普担任主席，其任期将持续至2027年底。此外，与先前版本不同的是，最新版本的草案提到了未来可能建立的巴勒斯坦国。这份套案称, 一旦巴斯斯坦民族汉力机构完成要求的改革，且加沙地带重建工作后动，"最终可能为巴勒斯坦人民实现自决与建国的可信路径创造条件"。目前以 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Spot prices have reached a short - term peak, and the futures market has declined, which is in line with the report's expectations. The core issue is the direction of spot freight rates, and the main contract may be in the bottom - building process. It is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [2][4]. - The market has intense long - short competition, with no obvious trading direction, and the futures market is weakly volatile [4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content Freight Index - On November 17, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1357.67 points, down 9.8% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1238.42 points, down 6.9% from the previous period. The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced a price of 1451.38 points, down 43.72 points from the previous period. The SCFI European line price was 1417 USD/TEU, up 7.1% from the previous period; the SCFI US - West route was 1823 USD/FEU, down 17.59% from the previous period [3]. - On November 14, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 999.69 points, down 5.12% from the previous period; the NCFI (European route) was 979.34 points, up 7.42% from the previous period; the NCFI (US - West route) was 1052.43 points, down 21.99% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1094.03 points, up 3.4% from the previous period; the CCFI (European route) was 1403.64 points, up 2.7% from the previous period; the CCFI (US - West route) was 846.24 points, up 3.9% from the previous period [3]. Economic Data - In October, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, and the manufacturing prosperity level declined. The Composite PMI Output Index was 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the overall production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises were stable [4]. - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in October was 45.9 (expected 45.1, previous value 45); the preliminary value of the service - sector PMI was 51.2 (expected 51.5, previous value 51.4); the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 49.7 (expected 49.7, previous value 49.6). The Eurozone's Sentix Investor Confidence Index in October had a previous value of - 9.2 and a forecast value of - 8.5 [3]. - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Services PMI in October was 55.2 (expected 53.5, previous value 54.2); the preliminary value of the manufacturing PMI was 52.2 (expected 52, previous value 52); the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 54.8 (expected 53.1, previous value 53.9) [4]. Contract Information - On November 20, the main contract 2602 closed at 1631.0, down 1.39%, with a trading volume of 32,800 lots and an open interest of 42,000 lots, an increase of 1785 lots from the previous day [4]. Strategy - Short - term strategy: The main contract has pulled back, and the far - month contracts are relatively strong. Risk - preferring investors have been advised to lightly test long positions in the EC2602 contract in the 1550 - 1600 range and have been advised to take partial profits. Attention should be paid to the spot trend, and it is not recommended to hold losing positions. Set stop - losses [5]. - Arbitrage strategy: Against the background of international turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or lightly test positions [5]. - Long - term strategy: Each contract has been advised to take profits when it rises and wait for the price to stabilize after a pullback before judging the subsequent direction [5]. Contract Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 has been adjusted to 18% [5]. - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 has been adjusted to 28% [5]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - SCFIS is continuously declining, indicating that the actual price increase implementation is not ideal, leading to a decline in bullish sentiment and a weak overall market oscillation. The core now lies in the direction of spot freight rates, and the main contract may be in the process of bottom - building. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [2][6]. - The issue of tariffs has shown a marginal effect, and the current focus is on the trend of spot freight rates [6]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Freight Indexes - **SCFIS**: On November 17, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1357.67 points, down 9.8% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1238.42 points, down 6.9% from the previous period [3]. - **SCFI**: On November 14, the announced price of the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1451.38 points, down 43.72 points from the previous period. The SCFI price for the European route was 1417 USD/TEU, up 7.1% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1823 USD/FEU, down 17.59% from the previous period [4]. - **NCFI**: On November 14, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the comprehensive index was 999.69 points, down 5.12% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 979.34 points, up 7.42% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1052.43 points, down 21.99% from the previous period [5]. - **CCFI**: On November 14, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1094.03 points, up 3.4% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 1403.64 points, up 2.7% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 846.24 points, up 3.9% from the previous period [5]. 3.2 Economic Data - Eurozone: In October, the preliminary manufacturing PMI was 45.9 (expected 45.1, previous 45), the preliminary services PMI was 51.2 (expected 51.5, previous 51.4), the preliminary composite PMI was 49.7 (expected 49.7, previous 49.6), and the Sentix investor confidence index was expected to be - 8.5 (previous - 9.2) [5]. - China: In October, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, and the composite PMI output index was 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [5]. - US: In October, the preliminary S&P Global services PMI was 55.2 (expected 53.5, previous 54.2), the preliminary manufacturing PMI was 52.2 (expected 52, previous 52), and the preliminary composite PMI was 54.8 (expected 53.1, previous 53.9) [6]. 3.3 Market Conditions of Contracts - On November 18, the main contract 2602 closed at 1678.1, down 2.88%, with a trading volume of 29,200 lots and an open interest of 38,900 lots, a decrease of 20 lots from the previous day [6]. 3.4 Strategies - **Short - term Strategy**: For risk - preferring investors, it is recommended to lightly test long positions in the EC2602 contract in the 1550 - 1600 range, consider partial profit - taking, pay attention to spot trends, avoid holding losing positions, and set stop - losses [7]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: In the context of international turmoil, each contract still follows seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to temporarily wait and see or lightly attempt [7]. - **Long - term Strategy**: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rises, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [7]. 3.5 Other Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 has been adjusted to 18% [7]. - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 has been adjusted to 28% [7]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [7].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The current tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the core lies in the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the process of bottom - building, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [2][3]. - The bullish signals released by liner companies have warmed the market sentiment. Long - position funds have continuously entered, pushing up the futures price. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [2][3]. - For different time - frame strategies: in the short - term, risk - preference investors who have built positions in the EC2512 contract below 1500 can consider partial profit - taking; in the long - term, it is recommended to take profits when the contract price surges and wait for the price to stabilize after the correction before making further judgments [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content a. Freight Index - **SCFIS and NCFI**: On November 3, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1208.71 points, down 7.9% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1267.15 points, up 14.4%. On October 31, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1100.32 points, up 12.60%; for the European route, it was 965.62 points, up 17.43%; for the US - West route, it was 1452.82 points, up 12.30% [2]. - **SCFI and CCFI**: On October 31, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1550.70 points, up 147.24 points from the previous period. The SCFI price for the European route was 1344 USD/TEU, up 7.87%; for the US - West route, it was 2647 USD/FEU, up 22.94%. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1021.39 points, up 2.9%; for the European route, it was 1323.81 points, up 2.4%; for the US - West route, it was 772.67 points, up 4.9% [2]. b. PMI Data - **Eurozone**: In October, the manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 45.9 (expected 45.1, previous 45), the service PMI preliminary value was 51.2 (expected 51.5, previous 51.4), and the composite PMI preliminary value was 49.7 (expected 49.7, previous 49.6). The Sentix investor confidence index was expected to be - 8.5, with the previous value of - 9.2 [2]. - **China**: In October, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, and the comprehensive PMI output index was 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating overall stable corporate production and operation activities [2]. - **US**: In October, the S&P Global service PMI preliminary value was 55.2 (expected 53.5, previous 54.2), the manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52.2 (expected 52, previous 52), and the composite PMI preliminary value was 54.8 (expected 53.1, previous 53.9) [3]. c. Tariff and Trade - Sino - US tariffs continue to be extended, and the negotiation has not made substantial progress. The tariff war has gradually evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries. Currently, the spot price has slightly decreased [2][3]. d. Market Strategy - **Short - term Strategy**: The main contract is weak while the far - month contract is strong, which is in line with the bottom - building judgment. Risk - preference investors who have built positions in the EC2512 contract below 1500 can consider partial profit - taking. Follow - up market trends should be monitored, and it is not recommended to hold losing positions. Stop - loss should be set [3]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Given the volatile international situation, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or participate with a light position [3]. - **Long - term Strategy**: It is recommended to take profits when the contract price surges and wait for the price to stabilize after the correction before making further judgments [3]. e. Market Conditions on November 5 - The main contract 2512 closed at 1946.0, with a 4.08% increase, a trading volume of 4.12 million lots, and an open interest of 34,100 lots, an increase of 3157 lots from the previous day [3]. - The daily trading limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 18%, the margin was adjusted to 28%, and the intraday opening limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 was set at 100 lots [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The improvement in Sino-US tariff situation meets the daily report's rebound expectation. It is not recommended to increase positions, and partial profit-taking can be considered. Attention should be paid to the freight rates in November [1]. - The tariff issue has shown a marginal effect, and the current core is the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the process of bottoming out. It is recommended to participate lightly or wait and see [3]. - Although the mutual reduction of Sino-US tariffs is beneficial to the market to some extent, the freight rates in November may not reach the previously announced increase, suppressing the upward movement of the market. Under the game between long and short positions, the market is generally in a weak and volatile state. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs SCFIS, NCFI, and Other Freight Rate Indexes - On October 27, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1312.71 points, up 15.1% from the previous period, and for the US West route was 1107.32 points, up 28.2% [2]. - On October 31, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 1100.32 points, up 12.60% from the previous period; for the European route was 965.62 points, up 17.43%; for the US West route was 1452.82 points, up 12.30% [2]. - On October 31, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1550.70 points, up 147.24 points from the previous period; the SCFI price for the European route was 1344 USD/TEU, up 7.87%; for the US West route was 2647 USD/FEU, up 22.94% [2]. - On October 31, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1021.39 points, up 2.9% from the previous period; for the European route was 1323.81 points, up 2.4%; for the US West route was 772.67 points, up 4.9% [2]. Economic Data - In October, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in the manufacturing sentiment [3]. - In October, the Composite PMI Output Index was 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating overall stability in the production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises [3]. - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's Manufacturing PMI in October was 45.9, expected to be 45.1, and the previous value was 45; the preliminary value of the Service PMI was 51.2, expected to be 51.5, and the previous value was 51.4; the preliminary value of the Composite PMI was 49.7, expected to be 49.7, and the previous value was 49.6 [2]. - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Service PMI in October was 55.2, expected to be 53.5, and the previous value was 54.2; the preliminary value of the Manufacturing PMI was 52.2, expected to be 52, and the previous value was 52; the preliminary value of the Composite PMI was 54.8, expected to be 53.1, and the previous value was 53.9 [3]. Futures Market - On October 31, the main contract 2512 closed at 1804.0, with a decline of 2.54%, a trading volume of 59,500 lots, and an open interest of 31,400 lots, an increase of 1251 lots from the previous day [3]. Strategies - Short - term strategy: The main contract remains weak, and the far - month contracts are strong, which is in line with the bottoming - out judgment. Risk - lovers who were advised to build positions below 1500 in the EC2512 contract (already with a profit margin of over 300 points) can consider partial profit - taking. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of international turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [4]. - Long - term strategy: For each contract, it has been recommended to take profits when the price rises, wait for the price to stabilize after a pullback, and then judge the subsequent direction [4]. Tariff Policy - The US will cancel the 10% so - called "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods (including those from the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region and the Macao Special Administrative Region), and the 24% reciprocal tariff on Chinese goods will continue to be suspended for one year. China will adjust its counter - measures accordingly, and both sides agree to continue to extend some tariff exclusion measures [5].