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集运日报:多空博弈下,盘面仍处于筑底过程,不建议继续加仓,设置好止损。-20250925
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo· 2025-09-25 02:16
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market is in a bottom - building process under the game of long and short positions. It is not recommended to increase positions, and stop - loss should be set. The core issue is the trend of spot freight rates, and the main contract may be at the bottom - building stage. It is advisable to participate with a light position or just observe [1][3]. - Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rate conditions [3]. 3. Summary by Content 3.1 Freight Index - On September 22, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1254.92 points, down 12.9% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1193.64 points, down 11.6% [2]. - On September 19, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the comprehensive index was 783.71 points, down 13.24% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 673.61 points, down 7.65%; for the US - West route, it was 944.89 points, down 23.30% [2]. - On September 19, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1198.21 points, down 199.90 points from the previous period; the SCFI price for the European route was 1052 USD/TEU, down 8.8%; for the US - West route, it was 1636 USD/FEU, down 31.0% [2]. - On September 19, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1125.30 points, down 2.1% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 1537.28 points, down 6.2%; for the US - West route, it was 757.45 points, down 2.2% [2]. 3.2 Market Conditions - On September 24, the main contract 2510 closed at 1100.0, with a 2.67% increase, a trading volume of 24,680 lots, and an open interest of 40,900 lots, a decrease of 568 lots from the previous day [3]. - Market pessimism has been repaired. The rise in crude oil prices may have boosted the bullish sentiment, but the market pulled back after rising due to capital withdrawal in the afternoon, showing a strong - side volatile trend [3]. 3.3 Strategies - **Short - term Strategy**: The main contract is weak, and far - month contracts are strong. It is recommended to stop losses on long positions and wait for bottom - building opportunities. Pay attention to subsequent market trends, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [4]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Given the volatile international situation, each contract still follows seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [4]. - **Long - term Strategy**: It is recommended to take profits when prices rise for each contract, wait for the price to stabilize after a pull - back, and then determine the subsequent direction [4]. 3.4 Policy and Geopolitical Events - The extension of Sino - US tariffs has shown a marginal effect, and the current focus is on the trend of spot freight rates [3]. - On September 23, a ship reported an explosion in the sea area about 222 kilometers east of Aden, Yemen, and the ship and crew were safe [5]. - The United Nations stated that Israel intends to permanently control the Gaza Strip, and in July, Israel's control area in the Gaza Strip expanded to 75% [5]. - The Ministry of Transport and other departments issued an action plan to promote the in - depth integration of container rail - water intermodal transportation from 2025 - 2027, aiming for an average annual growth of about 15% in container rail - water intermodal transportation volume by 2027 [5]. 3.5 Contract Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 18% [4]. - The company's margin for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 28% [4]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2508 to 2606 is 100 lots [4].
集运日报:SCFIS持续下跌,但运价接近盈亏线,盘面止跌反弹,不建议继续加仓,设置好止损-20250923
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo· 2025-09-23 06:19
上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (欧洲航线) 1254.92点,较上期下跌12.9% 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (美西航线) 1193.64点, 较上期下跌11.6% 9月19日 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFl公布价格1198.21 点,较上期下跌199.90点 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格1052USD/TEU,较上期下跌8.8%% 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI美西航线1636USD/FEU,较上期下跌31.0% 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (综合指数) 783.71点,较上期下跌13.24% 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (欧洲航线) 673.61点, 较上期下跌7.65% 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (美西航线) 944.89点, 较上期下跌23.30% 9月19日 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI(综合指数) 1125.30点,较上期下跌2.1% 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI (欧洲航线) 1537.28点,较上期下跌6.2% 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI (美西航线) 757.45点, 较上期下跌2.2% 欧元区8月制造业PMI初值为50.5,预估为49.5 ...
集运日报:现货运价维持低位,尺长情绪仍较为悲观,盘面持续下探,不建议继续加仓,设置好止损。-20250922
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo· 2025-09-22 03:01
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core issue is the direction of spot freight rates, and the main contract may be in the bottoming process. It is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [3]. - The main contract remains weak in the short - term, and it is recommended to stop losses on long positions and wait for bottoming opportunities. Attention should be paid to subsequent market trends, and it is not recommended to hold positions against the market. Set stop - losses well [4]. - In the context of international situation turmoil, it is recommended to temporarily wait and see or try with a light position for the arbitrage strategy [4]. - For the long - term strategy, it is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise sharply, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [4]. Summary by Related Content Spot Freight Rates and Indexes - On September 15, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index SCFIS (European route) was 1440.24 points, down 8.1% from the previous period; SCFIS (US West route) was 1349.84 points, up 37.7% from the previous period. On September 19, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index NCFI (composite index) was 783.71 points, down 13.24% from the previous period; NCFI (European route) was 673.61 points, down 7.65% from the previous period; NCFI (US West route) was 944.89 points, down 23.30% from the previous period [2]. - On September 19, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index SCFI was 1198.21 points, down 199.90 points from the previous period. The SCFI European line price was 1052 USD/TEU, down 8.8% from the previous period; the SCFI US West route was 1636 USD/FEU, down 31.0% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index CCFI (composite index) was 1125.30 points, down 2.1% from the previous period; CCFI (European route) was 1537.28 points, down 6.2% from the previous period; CCFI (US West route) was 757.45 points, down 2.2% from the previous period [2]. Economic Data - In the Eurozone, the August manufacturing PMI was 50.5 (estimated 49.5, previous value 49.8), the services PMI was 50.7 (estimated 50.8, previous value 51), and the composite PMI rose to 51.1, higher than July's 50.9 and the highest since May 2024, higher than the expected 50.7. The August Sentix investor confidence index was - 3.7 (expected 8, previous value 4.5) [2]. - In August in China, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, and the composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage point from the previous month [2]. - In the US, the August S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 53.3 (estimated 49.5, previous value 49.8), the services PMI was 55.4 (estimated 54.2, previous value 55.7), and the Markit manufacturing PMI was 53.3, the highest since May 2022 (expected 49.7, previous value 49.8) [2]. Tariff and Market Conditions - The Sino - US tariff extension negotiation has no substantial progress. The tariff issue has shown a marginal effect, and the core is the direction of spot freight rates [3]. - On September 19, the main contract 2510 closed at 1050.5, with a decline of 6.00%, a trading volume of 32,100 lots, and an open interest of 47,700 lots, an increase of 542 lots from the previous day [3]. Strategies - Short - term strategy: The main contract is weak, and it is recommended to stop losses on long positions and wait for bottoming opportunities. Pay attention to subsequent market trends and set stop - losses [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international situation turmoil, it is recommended to temporarily wait and see or try with a light position [4]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise sharply, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [4]. Other Information - The daily price limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18% [4]. - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% [4]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [4]. - Qatar and Egypt will continue to mediate the Gaza conflict. Hamas disagrees to negotiate under the current situation [5].
集运日报:现货价格持续下行,中东局势反复,国庆前货量堪忧,不建议继续加仓,设置好止损-20250917
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo· 2025-09-17 06:26
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Spot prices are continuously declining, the situation in the Middle East is volatile, and cargo volume before the National Day is concerning. It is not recommended to increase positions, and stop - loss should be set [1]. - The tariff issue has shown a marginal effect, and the current core is the trend of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the bottom - building process, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [3]. - The main contract remains weak, and the far - month contract is relatively strong. Risk - preferring investors are recommended to lightly test long positions around 1200 for the 2510 contract and increase positions around 1600 for the 2512 contract. Pay attention to subsequent market trends, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [3]. - Under the background of international situation turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or lightly try for arbitrage strategies [3]. - For long - term strategies, it is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [3]. 3. Summary According to Related Content 3.1 Freight Index Changes - On September 15, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1440.24 points, a decrease of 8.1% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1349.84 points, an increase of 37.7% from the previous period [2]. - On September 12, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 903.32 points, a decrease of 11.71% from the previous period; the NCFI (European route) was 729.42 points, a decrease of 14.78% from the previous period; the NCFI (US - West route) was 1216.14 points, a decrease of 9.13% from the previous period [2]. - On September 12, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1398.11 points, a decrease of 46.33 points from the previous period; the SCFI European route price was 1154 USD/TEU, a decrease of 12.24% from the previous period; the SCFI US - West route price was 2370 USD/FEU, an increase of 8.27% from the previous period [2]. - On September 12, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1125.30 points, a decrease of 2.1% from the previous period; the CCFI (European route) was 1537.28 points, a decrease of 6.2% from the previous period; the CCFI (US - West route) was 757.45 points, a decrease of 2.2% from the previous period [2]. 3.2 Economic Data - In the eurozone, the August manufacturing PMI was 50.5 (estimated 49.5, previous value 49.8), the services PMI was 50.7 (estimated 50.8, previous value 51), and the composite PMI rose to 51.1, higher than July's 50.9, the highest since May 2024 and higher than the expected value of 50.7. The August Sentix investor confidence index was - 3.7 (expected 8, previous value 4.5) [2]. - In August in China, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the composite PMI output index was 50.5%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an accelerated overall expansion of enterprise production and operation activities [2]. - In the US, the August S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 53.3 (estimated 49.5, previous value 49.8), the services PMI was 55.4 (estimated 54.2, previous value 55.7), and the Markit manufacturing PMI was 53.3, the highest since May 2022 (expected 49.7, previous value 49.8) [2]. 3.3 Contract Information - On September 16, the main contract 2510 closed at 1169.7, a decrease of 0.10%, with a trading volume of 32,600 lots and an open interest of 47,500 lots, a decrease of 255 lots from the previous day [3]. - The daily limit for contracts from 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18%, the margin is adjusted to 28%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts from 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [3]. 3.4 Geopolitical Information - On September 16, Israeli Defense Minister Katz stated that the Israeli military is strongly attacking the infrastructure of Hamas armed personnel to create conditions for defeating Hamas and releasing Israeli hostages [5]. - On September 15, US President Trump said that Israel would not attack Qatar again [5].
集运日报:现货运价持续下跌盘面处于筑底过程近期波动较大不建议继续加仓设置好止损-20250904
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo· 2025-09-04 05:31
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Spot freight rates are continuously falling, and the market is in the process of bottom - building with large recent fluctuations. It is not recommended to increase positions, and stop - losses should be set [1]. - Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the game is difficult. It is recommended to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines [3]. - After the bullish sentiment is exhausted, combined with the continuous decline of spot freight rates and the repeated Middle - East situation, the market stops rising and starts to fall. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [3]. Summary by Relevant Aspects Market Data - On September 1, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index SCFIS (European route) was 1773.60 points, down 10.9% from the previous period; the SCFIS (US West route) was 1013.90 points, down 2.6% from the previous period [2]. - On August 29, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index NCFI (composite index) was 1098.17 points, up 6.02% from the previous period; the NCFI (European route) was 929.56 points, down 14.23% from the previous period; the NCFI (US West route) was 1396.85 points, up 44.97% from the previous period [2]. - On August 29, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index SCFI announced a price of 1445.06 points, up 29.70 points from the previous period; the SCFI European route price was 1481 USD/TEU, down 11.21% from the previous period; the SCFI US West route was 1923 USD/FEU, up 16.97% from the previous period [2]. - On August 29, the China Export Container Freight Index CCFI (composite index) was 1156.32 points, down 1.6% from the previous period; the CCFI (European route) was 1685.80 points, down 4.1% from the previous period; the CCFI (US West route) was 774.39 points, down 3.1% from the previous period [2]. - On September 3, the main contract 2510 closed at 1323.0, with a decline of 3.04%, a trading volume of 25,500 lots, and an open interest of 51,900 lots, a decrease of 2211 lots from the previous day [3]. Economic Indicators - The eurozone's August manufacturing PMI was 50.5 (estimated 49.5, previous value 49.8); the services PMI was 50.7 (estimated 50.8, previous value 51); the composite PMI rose to 51.1, higher than July's 50.9, the highest since May 2024 and higher than the expected 50.7 [2]. - The eurozone's August Sentix investor confidence index was - 3.7 (expected 8, previous value 4.5) [2]. - In August, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month; the composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage point from the previous month [2]. - The US August S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 53.3 (estimated 49.5, previous value 49.8); the services PMI was 55.4 (estimated 54.2, previous value 55.7); the Markit manufacturing PMI was 53.3, the highest since May 2022 (expected 49.7, previous value 49.8) [2]. Strategies - **Short - term Strategy**: The main contract remains weak, and the far - month contracts are stronger. Risk - preferring investors are advised to lightly test long positions around 1300 for the 2510 contract and increase long positions around 1600 for the 2512 contract. Pay attention to subsequent market trends, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [4]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Against the backdrop of international turmoil, each contract still follows seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines or lightly attempt [4]. - **Long - term Strategy**: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rises, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [4]. Other Information - The US - China tariff extension negotiation has no substantial progress, and the tariff war has evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries. Currently, the spot price has slightly decreased [3]. - The Israeli - Palestinian conflict situation: Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said that the Israeli army is preparing to attack Gaza City, and the Israeli army is conducting large - scale reserve recruitment [5]. - The daily limit and circuit breaker for contracts from 2508 - 2606 are adjusted to 18% [4]. - The company's margin for contracts from 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% [4]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [4].
集运日报:现货运价持续下跌,盘面处于筑底过程,近期波动较大,不建议继续加仓,设置好止损。-20250904
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo· 2025-09-04 03:31
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Spot freight rates are continuously falling, and the market is in the process of bottom - building with large fluctuations recently. It is not recommended to increase positions and stop - losses should be set [1] - Due to geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, it is advisable to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines [3] - After the bullish sentiment is exhausted, the market stops rising and starts to fall. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [3] Summary by Related Content Freight Rate Index - On September 1st, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index SCFIS (European route) was 1773.60 points, down 10.9% from the previous period; SCFIS (US West route) was 1013.90 points, down 2.6% from the previous period [2] - On August 29th, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index NCFI (composite index) was 1098.17 points, up 6.02% from the previous period; NCFI (European route) was 929.56 points, down 14.23% from the previous period; NCFI (US West route) was 1396.85 points, up 44.97% from the previous period [2] - On August 29th, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index SCFI composite index was 1445.06 points, up 29.70 points from the previous period; SCFI European route price was 1481 USD/TEU, down 11.21% from the previous period; SCFI US West route was 1923 USD/FEU, up 16.97% from the previous period [2] - On August 29th, the China Export Container Freight Index CCFI (composite index) was 1156.32 points, down 1.6% from the previous period; CCFI (European route) was 1685.80 points, down 4.1% from the previous period; CCFI (US West route) was 774.39 points, down 3.1% from the previous period [2] Market Conditions - On September 3rd, the main contract 2510 closed at 1323.0, with a decline of 3.04%, a trading volume of 25,500 lots, and an open interest of 51,900 lots, a decrease of 2211 lots from the previous day [3] PMI Data - Eurozone's August manufacturing PMI was 50.5 (estimated 49.5, previous 49.8); services PMI was 50.7 (estimated 50.8, previous 51); composite PMI was 51.1, higher than July's 50.9 and the expected 50.7 [2] - China's August manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month; composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month [2] - US August S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 53.3 (estimated 49.5, previous 49.8); services PMI was 55.4 (estimated 54.2, previous 55.7); Markit manufacturing PMI was 53.3 (expected 49.7, previous 49.8) [2] Strategies - Short - term strategy: For risk - takers, it is recommended to lightly test long positions around 1300 for the 2510 contract and increase long positions around 1600 for the 2512 contract. Pay attention to subsequent market trends and set stop - losses [4] - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international turmoil, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines or lightly test positions [4] - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise, wait for the correction to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [4] Other Information - Israel is preparing to attack Gaza City, and the Israeli military is conducting large - scale reserve recruitment [5] - The daily limit for contracts from 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18% [4] - The company's margin for contracts from 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% [4] - The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [4]
集运日报:SCFIS跟随下跌,盘面处于筑底过程,基差收紧,近期波动较大,不建议继续加仓,设置好止损。-20250902
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo· 2025-09-02 06:43
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - SCFIS is following a downward trend, the market is in the process of bottom - building, the basis is tightening, and recent fluctuations are significant. Due to the complexity of the geopolitical conflict and tariff instability, it is recommended to participate with a light position or stay on the sidelines [1][4]. - In the context of international instability, the seasonal logic of each contract remains, with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position for arbitrage strategies [4]. - For long - term strategies, it is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise and wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback before making further decisions [4]. Summary by Relevant Content 1. Shipping Freight Index - On September 1st, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1773.60 points, down 10.9% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1013.90 points, down 2.6% from the previous period [2]. - On August 29th, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1098.17 points, up 6.02% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 929.56 points, down 14.23% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 1396.85 points, up 44.97% from the previous period [2]. - On August 29th, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) composite index was 1445.06 points, up 29.70 points from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 1481 USD/TEU, down 11.21% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US - West route was 1923 USD/FEU, up 16.97% from the previous period [2]. - On August 29th, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1156.32 points, down 1.6% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1685.80 points, down 4.1% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 774.39 points, down 3.1% from the previous period [2]. 2. PMI Data - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's August manufacturing PMI was 50.5 (estimated 49.5, previous value 49.8), the preliminary value of the service PMI was 50.7 (estimated 50.8, previous value 51), and the preliminary value of the composite PMI rose to 51.1, higher than July's 50.9 and the expected 50.7 [2]. - The preliminary value of the US's August S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 53.3, reaching a 39 - month high (estimated 49.5, previous value 49.8); the preliminary value of the service PMI was 55.4 (estimated 54.2, previous value 55.7). The preliminary value of the US's August Markit manufacturing PMI was 53.3, the highest since May 2022 (expected 49.7, previous value 49.8) [3]. - China's July manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity [2]. 3. Trade and Geopolitical Situation - The Sino - US tariff extension continues, and the negotiation has not made substantial progress. The tariff war has evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries, and the current spot price has slightly decreased [4]. - Recently, the Israeli military has expanded its military operations against Hamas, and the Houthi armed forces have launched a missile attack on an Israeli oil tanker in the Red Sea [5]. 4. Futures Market - On September 1st, the main contract 2510 closed at 1291.4, up 1.53%, with a trading volume of 29,200 lots and an open interest of 52,300 lots, a decrease of 989 lots from the previous day [4]. - The daily trading limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 has been adjusted to 18%, the margin has been adjusted to 28%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [4]. 5. Investment Strategies - Short - term strategy: For risk - takers, it is recommended to try a light - position long at around 1300 for the 2510 contract and add more positions at around 1600 for the 2512 contract. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, avoid holding losing positions, and set stop - losses [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international instability, it is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position due to large fluctuations in each contract [4]. - Long - term strategy: Take profits when the contracts rise and wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback before making further decisions [4].
集运日报:SCFIS跟随下跌盘面处于筑底过程基差收紧近期波动较大不建议继续加仓设置好止损-20250902
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo· 2025-09-02 05:05
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical conflict and tariff fluctuations make the game difficult, suggesting light - participation or waiting and seeing [4]. - The overall freight rate is still declining, and the market is strongly volatile. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Freight Rate Index - On September 1, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1773.60 points, down 10.9% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1013.90 points, down 2.6% from the previous period [2]. - On August 29, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1098.17 points, up 6.02% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 929.56 points, down 14.23% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 1396.85 points, up 44.97% from the previous period [2]. - On August 29, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) composite index was 1445.06 points, up 29.70 points from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 1481 USD/TEU, down 11.21% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US - West route was 1923 USD/FEU, up 16.97% from the previous period [2]. - On August 29, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1156.32 points, down 1.6% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1685.80 points, down 4.1% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 774.39 points, down 3.1% from the previous period [2]. 3.2 PMI Data - The eurozone's August manufacturing PMI flash was 50.5 (estimated 49.5, previous 49.8), services PMI flash was 50.7 (estimated 50.8, previous 51), and composite PMI flash rose to 51.1, the highest since May 2024 [2]. - The US August S&P Global manufacturing PMI flash was 53.3, reaching a 39 - month high; the services PMI flash was 55.4; the Markit manufacturing PMI flash was 53.3, the highest since May 2022 [3]. - China's July manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [2]. 3.3 Trade and Policy - Sino - US tariffs continue to be extended, and the negotiation has not made substantial progress. The tariff war has evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries, and the spot price has slightly decreased [4]. 3.4 Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: For risk - takers, it is recommended to try long positions lightly around 1300 for the 2510 contract and increase positions around 1600 for the 2512 contract. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international situation turmoil, it is recommended to wait and see or try lightly with small positions [4]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise, wait for the correction to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [4]. 3.5 Market Conditions - On September 1, the main contract 2510 closed at 1291.4, up 1.53%, with a trading volume of 29,200 lots and an open interest of 52,300 lots, down 989 lots from the previous day [4]. - The daily trading limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18%, the margin is adjusted to 28%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [4]. 3.6 Geopolitical Events - On August 31, the Israeli Defense Minister announced that the Israeli army killed the spokesman of the Hamas Qassam Brigades in the Gaza Strip, but Hamas has not confirmed this news. The Israeli army has been expanding military operations against Hamas [5]. - On September 1, the Houthi armed forces launched a missile at an Israeli oil tanker in the northern Red Sea [5].
集运日报:现货运价跌势不减,盘面冲高回落,近期波动较大,不建议继续加仓,设置好止损。-20250828
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo· 2025-08-28 06:25
Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report [1][2][3] Core Viewpoints - The spot freight rate continues to decline, and the futures market fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to participate with light positions or wait and see due to geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties [2][5] - The main contract remains weak, while the far - month contracts are relatively strong. Risk - takers can try light - position long positions at specific price levels for certain contracts, but should set stop - losses [5] Summary by Related Information Freight Rate Indexes - On August 25, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1990.20 points, down 8.7% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 1041.38 points, down 5.9% [3] - On August 22, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1035.79 points, down 1.59% from the previous period; the European route was 1083.74 points, down 8.83%; the US West route was 963.54 points, down 1.79% [3] - On August 22, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) composite index was 1415.36 points, down 44.83 points from the previous period; the European route price was 1668 USD/TEU, down 8.35%; the US West route was 1759 USD/FEU, down 6.54% [3] - On August 22, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1174.87 points, down 1.5% from the previous period; the European route was 1757.74 points, down 1.8%; the US West route was 799.19 points, down 2.9% [3] PMI Data - The eurozone's August manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 50.5, higher than the forecast of 49.5 and the previous value of 49.8; the service PMI preliminary value was 50.7, slightly lower than the forecast of 50.8 and the previous value of 51; the composite PMI preliminary value rose to 51.1 [3] - In July, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [4] - The US August S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 53.3, reaching a 39 - month high; the service PMI preliminary value was 55.4 [4] Market and Strategy - On August 27, the main contract 2510 closed at 1316.0, down 0.89%, with a trading volume of 1.80 million lots and an open interest of 5.37 million lots, a decrease of 684 lots from the previous day [5] - Short - term strategy: Risk - takers can try light - position long positions around 1300 for the 2510 contract and add long positions around 1600 for the 2512 contract, and set stop - losses [5] - Arbitrage strategy: It is recommended to wait and see or try with light positions due to large fluctuations [5] - Long - term strategy: Take profit on rallies and wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback before making further decisions [5] Other Information - Sino - US tariff extension negotiations have no substantial progress, and the tariff war has evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries [5] - The daily trading limit for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 18%, the margin is adjusted to 28%, and the intraday opening limit for all these contracts is 100 lots [5]
集运日报:停火消息对盘面影响有限,近期波动较大,不建议继续加仓,设置好止损-20250820
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo· 2025-08-20 03:18
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Due to geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, it is recommended to participate with light positions or wait and see. The short - term strategy suggests that risk - takers can try to go long lightly near 1300 for the 2510 contract and near 1750 for the 2512 contract. The long - term strategy is to take profits when the contracts rise and wait for a pullback to determine the subsequent direction. The arbitrage strategy advises waiting and seeing or light - position attempts due to large fluctuations [5][6] - The cease - fire news has limited impact on the market, and the market is volatile. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [2][5] Summary According to Directory Freight Index - On August 18, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2180.17 points, down 2.5% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1106.29 points, up 2.2% from the previous period. On August 15, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced a price of 1460.19 points, down 29.49 points from the previous period; the SCFI European route price was 1820 USD/TEU, down 7.2% from the previous period; the SCFI US - West route was 1759 USD/FEU, down 3.5% from the previous period [3] - On August 15, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 1052.5 points, down 0.1% from the previous period; the NCFI (European route) was 1188.7 points, down 5.5% from the previous period; the NCFI (US - West route) was 1042.91 points, down 5.9% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1193.34 points, down 0.6% from the previous period; the CCFI (European route) was 1790.47 points, down 0.5% from the previous period; the CCFI (US - West route) was 981.1 points, down 5.9% from the previous period [3] Economic Data - In the eurozone, the July manufacturing PMI was 49.8, higher than the expected 49.7 and the previous value of 49.5. The July services PMI was 51.2, exceeding the expected 50.7 and the previous value of 50.5. The July composite PMI was 51, higher than the expected 50.8 and the previous value of 50.6. The July SENTIX investor confidence index jumped to 4.5, significantly higher than 0.2 in June and the market - expected 1.1, reaching the highest level since April 2022 [3] - In the US, the July S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.5, with an expected 52.7 and a previous value of 52.9; the July S&P Global services PMI preliminary value was 55.2, with an expected 53 and a previous value of 52.9. The July Markit composite PMI preliminary value was 54.6, the highest since December 2024, better than the expected 52.8 and the previous value of 52.9 [4] - The July manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) in China was 49.3%, 0.4 percentage points lower than the previous month, and the manufacturing prosperity level declined [4] Market Conditions - On August 19, the main contract 2510 closed at 1370.3, a decline of 0.80%, with a trading volume of 27,300 lots and an open interest of 52,800 lots, a decrease of 383 lots from the previous day [5] Geopolitical Situation - On August 18, Hamas announced its agreement to the latest cease - fire proposal from Egypt and Qatar, but Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu seemed uninterested, and Israel was advancing its so - called "takeover" of Gaza City [7] Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: For risk - takers, try to go long lightly near 1300 for the 2510 contract and near 1750 for the 2512 contract. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend and set stop - losses [6] - Arbitrage strategy: Due to the volatile international situation, it is recommended to wait and see or try with light positions [6] - Long - term strategy: Take profits when the contracts rise and wait for a pullback to determine the subsequent direction [6] Contract Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18% [6] - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% [6] - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [6]