Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the journey of Japanese government bonds from a 2% to 1% yield, identifying three stages of fluctuations and the factors influencing them, including policy changes, economic conditions, and institutional behaviors. It also draws lessons from Japan's experience in dealing with low - interest - rate bond market volatility for China [12][15][34]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Replay: What Happened to Japanese Government Bonds from 2% to 1%? - **Stage One (1999 - 2001)**: After a period of rapid rise and recovery, the 10 - year Japanese government bond oscillated between 1.5% - 2%. Fiscal expansion and zero - interest policies rebalanced the supply - demand pattern of government bonds. Banks passively increased their government bond holdings due to low lending demand and narrow interest spreads, while bond funds' scale recovered, and the central bank started using non - traditional tools to intervene in the market [12][15][20]. - **Stage Two (2001 - 2002)**: The 10 - year Japanese government bond oscillated between 1% - 1.5%. The launch of QE and the resolution of financial institution risks were the main themes. Banks' willingness to buy government bonds weakened due to bad loan restructuring, while insurance companies increased their government bond allocation to hedge against equity risks. Public bond funds' scale shrank significantly, and capital flowed overseas [12][34][36]. - **Stage Three (2003 - 2010)**: The 10 - year Japanese government bond oscillated between 1.2% - 2%. Japan maintained low fiscal stimulus, resulting in low growth and low inflation. Fiscal and monetary policies formed a structural division, with fiscal prudence and monetary easing. During the financial crisis, the central bank's policy changes constrained interest rate fluctuations, and the bond market had large retracements in a low - interest environment [12][48][50]. 2. Experience: Bond Market Volatility and Institutional Responses in Japan's Low - Interest Environment - **Experience One (1999 - 2001)**: The Japanese banking system absorbed the supply shock of government bonds. From 1997 - 2001, the proportion of government bonds held by banks increased from 5.23% to 10.13%, digesting 28.19% of the government bond increment. In contrast, Chinese commercial banks have stronger government bond - taking capacity and greater structural adjustment space [60][62]. - **Experience Two (2001 - 2002)**: The insurance industry had greater potential for government bond allocation than banks. In 2001 - 2002, the year - on - year growth rate of insurance funds' government bond purchases increased from 28% to 57%, reaching 2.83 trillion yen in 2002. Regulatory policy relaxation also increased the industry's government bond - taking ability [67][68]. - **Experience Three (2003 - 2010)**: The fixed - income fund industry coped with the market volatility of low - interest rates and high retracements. Bond funds' passive management became popular, some funds obtained excess returns through credit screening and duration strategies, and the industry explored solutions through product innovation, such as monthly - dividend products [71][72][73].