紧跟美国总统特朗普，美国财政部长贝森特也猛批美联储。在外界越发质疑特朗普开除联储理事威胁联 储独立性之际，贝森特反过来指责联储，认为是这些年联储自身的问题导致独立性岌岌可危。 美东时间5日周五，媒体发布署名贝森特的专栏文章，文章严厉批评美联储因"职能扩张"而将自身独立 性置于危险境地，并呼吁对美联储进行独立的全面审查。这是特朗普政府高官对美联储发起的最新一轮 攻势。 贝森特在文章中指出，美联储超越其法定范围的职责扩张损害了联储自身的信誉与政治合法性。非标准 政策的过度使用、使命蔓延和机构臃肿威胁着央行的独立性。文章写道： "独立性的核心在于信誉和政治合法性。美联储的扩张超越了其职权范围，这两者都受到了 威胁。" 贝森特的批评呼应了特朗普的立场。本周五公布的8月美国非农就业报告显示经济疲软后，特朗普立即 再次点名批评美联储主席鲍威尔，称他"早就该降息"，行动总是太迟。 贝森特的专栏文章标志着，特朗普政府对美联储的批评升级，不再是单单要求降息，还在质疑美联储的 整体运作模式和作为独立性的基石。 要求全面审查美联储 贝森特在专栏中，认为非标准政策的过度使用、职能扩张和机构臃肿都威胁到联储作为央行的独立性。 他首次明 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the journey of Japanese government bonds from a 2% to 1% yield, identifying three stages of fluctuations and the factors influencing them, including policy changes, economic conditions, and institutional behaviors. It also draws lessons from Japan's experience in dealing with low - interest - rate bond market volatility for China [12][15][34]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Replay: What Happened to Japanese Government Bonds from 2% to 1%? - **Stage One (1999 - 2001)**: After a period of rapid rise and recovery, the 10 - year Japanese government bond oscillated between 1.5% - 2%. Fiscal expansion and zero - interest policies rebalanced the supply - demand pattern of government bonds. Banks passively increased their government bond holdings due to low lending demand and narrow interest spreads, while bond funds' scale recovered, and the central bank started using non - traditional tools to intervene in the market [12][15][20]. - **Stage Two (2001 - 2002)**: The 10 - year Japanese government bond oscillated between 1% - 1.5%. The launch of QE and the resolution of financial institution risks were the main themes. Banks' willingness to buy government bonds weakened due to bad loan restructuring, while insurance companies increased their government bond allocation to hedge against equity risks. Public bond funds' scale shrank significantly, and capital flowed overseas [12][34][36]. - **Stage Three (2003 - 2010)**: The 10 - year Japanese government bond oscillated between 1.2% - 2%. Japan maintained low fiscal stimulus, resulting in low growth and low inflation. Fiscal and monetary policies formed a structural division, with fiscal prudence and monetary easing. During the financial crisis, the central bank's policy changes constrained interest rate fluctuations, and the bond market had large retracements in a low - interest environment [12][48][50]. 2. Experience: Bond Market Volatility and Institutional Responses in Japan's Low - Interest Environment - **Experience One (1999 - 2001)**: The Japanese banking system absorbed the supply shock of government bonds. From 1997 - 2001, the proportion of government bonds held by banks increased from 5.23% to 10.13%, digesting 28.19% of the government bond increment. In contrast, Chinese commercial banks have stronger government bond - taking capacity and greater structural adjustment space [60][62]. - **Experience Two (2001 - 2002)**: The insurance industry had greater potential for government bond allocation than banks. In 2001 - 2002, the year - on - year growth rate of insurance funds' government bond purchases increased from 28% to 57%, reaching 2.83 trillion yen in 2002. Regulatory policy relaxation also increased the industry's government bond - taking ability [67][68]. - **Experience Three (2003 - 2010)**: The fixed - income fund industry coped with the market volatility of low - interest rates and high retracements. Bond funds' passive management became popular, some funds obtained excess returns through credit screening and duration strategies, and the industry explored solutions through product innovation, such as monthly - dividend products [71][72][73].

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming selection of the next Federal Reserve Chair is becoming increasingly significant, with potential candidates including Scott Bessent, Kevin Warsh, Christopher Waller, and Judy Shelton, which may impact the Fed's independence and inflation targets [1][3]. Candidate Profiles - Christopher Waller has been a prominent figure in the Fed, advocating for a dovish stance and suggesting that tariffs will have a temporary effect on inflation, indicating a potential for interest rate cuts this year [2][3]. - Kevin Warsh, previously considered for the Fed Chair position by Trump, has criticized the Fed's quantitative easing policies and is seen as a potential candidate, although he has shown some flexibility in his recent statements regarding interest rate cuts [4][5]. - Judy Shelton, known for her controversial views advocating for a return to the gold standard and opposing Fed independence, could cause significant market volatility if nominated [6][7].