Market Review - The rebar futures contract closed at 3164, up 0.22% after a narrow fluctuation on Wednesday night [1] Fundamental Summary - As of September 25, the price of rebar from Zhongtian is 3260 yuan/ton, with an outflow of 48,000 tons yesterday, an increase of 10,000 tons compared to the same week last year [2] - Hangzhou's rebar inventory stands at 975,000 tons, a decrease of 40,000 tons from the same week last year [2] - On September 24, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported rebar warehouse receipts at 263,806 tons, a decrease of 3,584 tons from the previous trading day; factory warehouse receipts remained stable at 5,700 tons [2] - According to the China Iron and Steel Association, key steel enterprises produced 20.73 million tons of crude steel in mid-September, with an average daily output of 2.073 million tons, a 0.6% decrease from the previous period [2] - Estimated national daily crude steel output for this period is 2.56 million tons, down 0.6%, while daily pig iron production is 2.29 million tons, up 0.7%, and daily steel output is 4.17 million tons, up 2.7% [2] Institutional Perspectives - New Century Futures notes that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut is expected to impact trading post-National Day, with coal mine production halts and rising "anti-involution" expectations driving a rebound in coking coal [3] - The production of finished steel has slightly decreased, but supply remains relatively high, with a small increase in demand for five major steel products, leading to continued inventory pressure [3] - Real estate investment continues to decline, limiting total demand, which is expected to create a pattern of high demand early in the year and low demand later [3] - Hualian Futures observes a rapid recovery in blast furnace steel production, with average daily pig iron output at a yearly high, and a noticeable reduction in rebar supply due to production shifts [3] - Seasonal demand recovery is anticipated as traditional consumption peaks and pre-holiday stockpiling boosts demand, leading to a gradual slowdown in inventory accumulation [3] - The macroeconomic environment is improving, and the supply-demand dynamics are expected to show improvement, with steel prices likely to continue a strong oscillation [3]