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国投期货化工日报-20251105
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-11-05 12:46
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Red stars represent a predicted trending upward, green stars represent a predicted trending downward. One star means a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price increase/decrease but limited trading opportunities on the market. Two stars indicate a clear long/short position with an ongoing market trend. Three stars signify a more distinct long/short trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities at present. White stars suggest a short - term equilibrium in the long/short trend and poor market operability, advising to wait and see [9] - For example, propylene, plastic, PTA, methanol, PVC, and soda ash are rated ★☆☆; polypropylene, benzene - ethylene, short - fiber, bottle - chip, urea, and caustic soda are rated ★★★; glass is rated ★★★ [1] Report's Core View - The overall situation in the chemical industry is complex, with different products showing various trends. Some products face supply - demand imbalances, cost fluctuations, and changing market expectations, which affect their price trends and investment opportunities [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures' main contract declined. Shandong PDH plant shutdowns had limited support for supply. Supply was overall abundant, production enterprises' sales weakened, and downstream demand decreased [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures' main contracts also declined. For polyethylene, cost support weakened, supply was stable, and downstream demand was average. For polypropylene, production enterprises cut prices, and downstream new orders were limited [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - The intraday price of unified benzene fluctuated around 5400 yuan/ton, with East China spot prices and Sinopec's listed price dropping. Port inventory increased, and the load of pure benzene plants rose slightly. The market was expected to be bearish in the medium - term [3] - Styrene futures' main contract declined. New plants were in normal production, and product inflows increased. The short - term price was expected to remain weak [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices fluctuated widely. PX and PTA supply increased, and PTA had inventory accumulation pressure. The downstream demand was expected to weaken in the medium - term [4] - Ethylene glycol's weekly output decreased slightly, but supply was expected to increase. It was expected to continue accumulating inventory in the medium - term [4] - Short - fiber had no new investment pressure, and its inventory was expected to increase in mid - to late November. Bottle - chip demand weakened, and the processing margin was under pressure [4] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures declined continuously and stabilized in the afternoon. Port inventory was high and continued to accumulate. Downstream demand was weak, and the market needed supply reduction and demand improvement [5] - Urea futures fluctuated strongly. Spot prices were stable with a slight increase. Production enterprises had slight inventory accumulation. The market was expected to continue range - bound [5] Chlor - Alkali Industry - PVC was at a low level. Enterprises' inventory increased, and social inventory decreased, but the industry's inventory pressure was still high. Supply was expected to increase, and demand was expected to decline [6] - Caustic soda continued to decline. The industry's inventory was high, downstream demand was average, and cost support weakened [6] Soda Ash - Glass - Unified soda ash fluctuated. Supply increased, and inventory was high. The consumption of soda ash decreased due to float glass shutdowns, and the price was under pressure [7] - Float glass futures declined from a high level. Production line shutdowns led to inventory reduction expectations. Cost increased, and the profit margin narrowed. The market was expected to have limited downside [7]