宝丰能源 20260106 摘要 2024 年四季度锡锭价格有所下行，主要因预计 2025 年国内聚乙烯、 聚丙烯新增产能约 1,010 万吨，乙烯、丙烯总产能增长约 13%，高于 表观消费量增长约 10%，市场面临价格压力。 全球烯烃新增产能将以油质为主，提高平均成本。中国 2026 年仍是乙 烯、丙烯投放高峰，新增产能预计千万吨左右，市场承压，但新能源等 新兴产业需求或带来转机，预计 2027 年前后行业迎来转折点。 公司息金成本维持在 4,000 元以内，大致在 3,780-3,890 元之间。采 购到场煤价基本上是 400 多元一吨，以此计算总成本约 3,700 元左右， 高的时候接近 3,900 元，低的时候 3,600 元左右。 美国控制委内瑞拉石油短期内不会显著改变全球供应格局，更多是长期 原油战略。国际原油价格已跌至 55-60 美元，接近多数石油开采企业成 本线，长期低于此区间将导致亏损，形成支撑。 预计 2025 年行业价差不会出现大的变动，在当前水平上下波动。当前 石油价格在 55 美元左右，优质聚乙烯有略微的利润，根据金联创的统 计，今年（2025 年）优质聚乙烯大概平均利润为 400 ...

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| 《八》 国控期货 | | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2025年12月30日 | | 丙烯 | 文☆☆ 聚丙烯 | | 女女女 | 庞春艳 首席分析师 | | 租料 | 女女女 | 纯苯 | な女女 | F3011557 Z0011355 | | 苯乙烯 | ななな | PX | ☆☆☆ | | | PTA | ななな | 乙二醇 | な☆☆ | 牛卉 高级分析师 | | 短纤 | なな女 | 瓶片 | な☆☆ | F3003295 Z0011425 | | 甲醇 | ★☆☆ | 尿素 | ☆☆☆ | 周小燕 高级分析师 | | PVC | なな女 | 烧碱 | 女女女 | F03089068 Z0016691 | | 筑碱 | 文文文 玻璃 | | 女女女 | | | | | | | 王雪忆 分析师 | | | | | | F03125010 Z0023574 | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【烯烃-聚烯烃】 丙烯 ...

| //// } 国投期货 | | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2025年12月29日 | | 丙烯 | 女女女 聚丙烯 | | 女女女 | 庞春艳 首席分析师 | | 塑料 | な☆☆ | 纯苯 | なな女 | F3011557 Z0011355 | | 苯乙烯 | なな女 | PX | ☆☆☆ | | | PTA | なな☆ | 乙二醇 | な女女 | 牛卉 高级分析师 | | 短纤 | なな☆ | 瓶片 | なな女 | F3003295 Z0011425 | | 甲醇 | な☆☆ | 尿素 | ☆☆☆ | 周小燕 高级分析师 | | PVC | ななな | 烧碱 | ☆☆☆ | | | | | | | F03089068 Z0016691 | | 纯碱 | 女女女 玻璃 | | な女女 | 王雪忆 分析师 | | | | | | F03125010 Z0023574 | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【烯烃-聚烯烃】 ...

本周行情综述 风险提示 地缘政治扰动超预期；海外经济出现衰退；行业及国际政策环境变化。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 原油：本周油价上涨后回落。白宫下令美军在未来至少两个月内专注于对委内瑞拉石油的"封锁"，当前美国更 倾向于使用经济手段，而非军事手段向委内瑞拉施压。此外，海湾地区裂痕加深，沙特对也门发动空袭，中东局 势存升级风险。地缘因素推升油价。本周五，因泽连斯基将于周日与特朗普讨论领土问题，市场预期和平协议或 进一步推进，叠加供应过剩担忧加剧，油价快速回落。整体看，当前油价仍围绕地缘与供需博弈。截止 12 月 26 日，WTI 现货收于 56.74 美元，环比+0.59 美元；BRENT 现货收于 63.73 美元。EIA12 月 12 日当周商业原油库存 环比-127.4 万桶，前值-181.2 万桶。其中库欣原油环比-74.2 万桶，前值+30.8 万桶。汽油库存环比+480.8 万 桶，前值+639.7 万桶。炼厂开工率环比+0.3%至 94.8%。美国原油库存下降，净进口量环比减少。美国产量 1384.3 万桶/天，美国净进口数据环比-27.9%。截至 12 月 23 日当周，美国活跃石油钻机数环 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Styrene: ★☆☆ [1] - Polypropylene: ★☆☆ [1] - Plastic: ★☆☆ [1] - PVC: ★★★ [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ [1] - PX: ★★★ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★☆ [1] - Propylene: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The two-olefin futures main contracts fluctuated widely during the day and operated weakly overall. The supply of plastics and polypropylene is relatively abundant, and the demand is weak, with the bear market pattern continuing [2]. - The benzene futures price fell after reaching 5,500 yuan/ton, and the supply and demand pressure may ease. The styrene futures main contract rose, but the supply increase may be greater than the demand increase [3]. - PX prices rose due to strong expectations, but the cost transmission resistance may gradually appear. Ethylene glycol is under long-term pressure, and the new supply concerns have limited impact on the current market [4]. - The raw materials are strong, squeezing the profits of downstream polyester products. Short fibers have a relatively good long-term supply and demand pattern, and bottle chips are driven by cost with overcapacity pressure [5]. - Methanol may operate weakly in the short term and has upward driving force in the medium and long term. The urea market continues to have a pattern of oversupply [6]. - PVC may operate at a low level, and caustic soda will continue to compress profits [7]. - Soda ash faces long-term oversupply pressure, and glass needs to continue to reduce production capacity to reach balance [8]. Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - The two-olefin futures main contracts fluctuated widely and operated weakly. The supply of plastics and polypropylene is relatively abundant, and the demand is weak, with the bear market pattern continuing [2]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - The benzene futures price fell after reaching 5,500 yuan/ton, and the supply and demand pressure may ease. The styrene futures main contract rose, but the supply increase may be greater than the demand increase [3]. Polyester - PX prices rose due to strong expectations, but the cost transmission resistance may gradually appear. Ethylene glycol is under long-term pressure, and the new supply concerns have limited impact on the current market [4]. - The raw materials are strong, squeezing the profits of downstream polyester products. Short fibers have a relatively good long-term supply and demand pattern, and bottle chips are driven by cost with overcapacity pressure [5]. Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol may operate weakly in the short term and has upward driving force in the medium and long term. The urea market continues to have a pattern of oversupply [6]. Chlor - Alkali - PVC may operate at a low level, and caustic soda will continue to compress profits [7]. Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash faces long-term oversupply pressure, and glass needs to continue to reduce production capacity to reach balance [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with limited trading opportunities on the market) [1] - Plastic: ★☆☆ [1] - Polypropylene: ★☆☆ [1] - Pure Benzene: ☆☆☆ (White star, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor trading opportunities) [1] - Styrene: ☆☆☆ [1] - PX: ☆☆☆ [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Short - fiber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chips: ☆☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ★☆☆ [1] - Urea: ★☆☆ [1] - PVC: ★☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ★☆☆ [1] - Glass: ★☆☆ [1] 2. Core Views - The overall chemical market shows a mixed trend, with some products facing downward pressure and some having potential for short - term strength or long - term improvement [2][3][5][6][7][8] 3. Summary of Each Section Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures dropped significantly. Production enterprises faced inventory pressure and increased the incentive to sell at a discount. The demand was negatively affected by the increase in the number of shutdown or planned shutdown of polypropylene plants [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures may enter an accelerated downward phase. The supply pressure of polyethylene increased due to high - load operation and slow inventory digestion, and the demand was weak. The cost support of polypropylene weakened, and the demand was relatively weak [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - The price of pure benzene rebounded slightly from a low level. The import pressure decreased slightly, and the supply - demand pressure may ease. It is recommended to consider long - term positive spreads on dips [3] - Styrene futures showed a weak consolidation. The cost support was insufficient, the de - stocking slowed down, and the market was in a weak downward trend [3] Polyester - PX and PTA increased in positions and prices, and the basis weakened. PX is expected to be bullish in the medium - term, and PTA's processing margin is expected to recover [5] - Ethylene glycol rebounded and then weakened. Although the supply may shrink, the long - term pressure remains due to expected new production capacity [5] - Short - fiber's supply - demand seasonally weakened, and its long - term supply - demand pattern is relatively good. Bottle chips' demand faded, and the long - term pressure comes from over - capacity [5] Coal Chemicals - Methanol futures prices fell. The port continued to de - stock, and the short - term port market is expected to be strong [6] - Urea prices corrected slightly. The daily production decreased, and the demand was strong. The short - term price may fluctuate strongly within a range [6] Chlor - alkali - PVC prices dropped. The supply pressure eased, but the demand was low. It is expected to fluctuate with macro - sentiment in the short - term [7] - Caustic soda prices declined. The supply pressure was high, and the profit is expected to be compressed in the long - term [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices fell again. The supply pressure was high, and it is recommended to short on rebounds in the long - term [8] - Glass prices also declined again. The inventory pressure was large, and the demand was insufficient. It is advisable to wait and see [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene: ★☆☆ [1] - Plastic: ★☆☆ [1] - Polypropylene: ★☆☆ [1] - Pure Benzene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Styrene: ☆☆☆ [1] - PX: ☆☆☆ [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ★☆☆ [1] - Urea: ★★☆ [1] - PVC: ★★☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The chemical market shows mixed trends with different products facing various supply - demand and price situations. Some products are under pressure due to factors like over - supply or weak demand, while others are supported by factors such as production cuts or policy impacts [2][3][5] Grouped Summaries by Product Categories Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures had a narrow - range consolidation. Production enterprises faced weak sales and rising inventory pressure, while downstream demand was weak due to more polypropylene device shutdowns [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures had a weak consolidation. Polyethylene had supply pressure from high - load production and slow inventory digestion, along with weak downstream demand. Polypropylene had weak cost support and demand [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene futures had a weak run. Although import pressure decreased slightly and there were expectations of supply - demand relief, it would mainly oscillate at a low level. A long - short spread positive spread could be considered on dips in the medium - term [3] - Styrene futures closed lower with a narrow - range decline. Cost support was insufficient, and the market was weak due to slower de - stocking and expected supply growth [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices rose due to oil price rebound. PX is expected to be strong in the medium - term, and PTA's processing margin is expected to recover. Ethylene glycol rebounded but is still under long - term pressure. Short fiber's supply - demand seasonally weakened, and bottle chip's demand declined with over - capacity pressure [5] Coal Chemicals - Methanol futures prices rose. Ports were de - stocking, and the market might be turning. Urea prices rose significantly. Indian import tenders boosted the market, and production enterprises were de - stocking [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC continued to rise under macro - mood influence. Supply was high, and demand was weak. It is expected to fluctuate with the macro - mood. Caustic soda oscillated strongly. Supply pressure was high, and it is also expected to follow the macro - mood [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices rose with high - level inventory and large supply pressure. It is expected to follow the macro - mood. Glass prices rose with high inventory and weak demand, and is expected to have a slightly strong oscillation in the short - term [8]

证券研究报告 石化行业周报：持续关注反内卷进展 行业投资评级：强大于市|维持 中邮证券研究所石化团队 分析师:张津圣 SAC 登记编号:S1340524040005 1 1 发布时间：2025-12-17 投资要点 请参阅附注免责声明 2 ◼ 焦点：原油关注OPEC+未来政策。关注PTA反内卷进展。持续关注石化反内卷进展，石化行业中老旧装 置淘汰退出和更新改造的进展。 ◼ 回顾：本周申万一级行业指数表现中，石油石化指数表现较差，较上周下跌3.52%。而中信三级行业指 数表现来看，本周工程服务在石油石化中表现最佳，跌幅1.75%。 ◼ 原油：原油跌；美原油库存下跌，汽油库存上涨 ◼ 聚酯：涤纶长丝价格整体平稳、价差跌。江浙织机涤纶长丝库存天数分品种有涨有跌，织机开工率跌 ◼ 烯烃：样本PE现货价格稳中有跌，聚烯烃石化库存上涨 ◼ 标的： ➢ 上游：地缘若未来再次给出原油溢价，则利好上游标的。 ➢ 炼化：若需求好转，优供给、淘汰落后产能有所进展，则利好中游炼化。 ➢ 长丝：关注PTA反内卷进展，若顺利则利好涤纶长丝。 ◼ 风险提示：油价剧烈波动、地缘风险、欧美通胀反复、欧美经济波动、行业政策变化、项目投产进度变 ...

本周行情综述 风险提示 地缘政治扰动超预期；海外经济出现衰退；行业及国际政策环境变化。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 原油：本周油价震荡走弱，地缘与供需博弈持续。委内瑞拉局势升级，美国军队在委内瑞拉海岸附近拦截并扣押 了一艘受制裁的油轮，同时表示准备拦截更多运输委内瑞拉石油的船只，以加大对委内瑞拉总统马杜罗的压力。 此外哈萨克斯坦因里海管道联盟（CPC）旗下黑海码头遭袭受损将下调 2026 年石油产量计划。但乌美就安全保障 协议深入磋商，俄乌可能达成和平的前景压低油价，同时 EIA 月报称美国今年石油产量预计创下纪录高位，且宏 观需求疲软迹象，市场供应过剩担忧升温，油价震荡走弱。截止 12 月 12 日，WTI 现货收于 57.44 美元，环比- 2.64 美元；BRENT 现货收于 62.55 美元，环比-2.23 美元。EIA12 月 5 日当周商业原油库存环比-181.2 万桶，前 值+57.4 万桶。其中库欣原油环比+30.8 万桶，前值-45.7 万桶。汽油库存环比+639.7 万桶，前值+451.8 万桶。 炼厂开工率环比+0.4%至 94.5%。美国原油库存下降，净进口量环比增加。美国产量 13 ...