Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Steel and Ore: Focus on the Game between Demand Expectations and Reality, and Pay Attention to Cross - Variety Arbitrage Opportunities" [2] - Report Date: March 13, 2026 [2] - Researcher: Ji Xiaoyun [3] - Contact Information: 010 - 56711796 [3] - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F3066027 [3] - Futures Trading Consultation Number: Z0011402 [3] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information provided. Group 3: Core Views - Steel: After the important meeting, steel production is expected to increase, especially blast - furnace rebar and hot - rolled coil production. Iron - water production will rise above 2.3 million tons by the end of March or early April. Rebar demand has initially started, and its sustainability depends on daily building materials transactions. Hot - rolled coils are in a tight - balance market, but production is likely to increase. The overall macro - environment is loose, and the trends of rebar and hot - rolled coils depend on demand quality and the game between expectations and reality, with potential for upward movement. [4] - Iron Ore: Rumors have short - term impacts on the market but are unconfirmed. As iron - water production increases, iron - ore demand is certain to grow. Although port inventories are rising, steel - mill inventories are low, and there is a high possibility of active replenishment, with the inventory - consumption ratio expected to decline. The trend is expected to be bullish, but there may be a short - term fill of the gap. [4] Group 4: Steel Market Analysis Rebar - Production: This week, rebar production increased by 219,900 tons week - on - week, mainly contributed by short - process production as short - process plants resumed work and increased their operating rates. [11] - Demand: Rebar apparent consumption increased by 785,800 tons week - on - week, indicating the start of demand. [11] - Inventory: Rebar inventory continued to accumulate, but at a slower pace (from 750,800 tons last week to 184,900 tons this week). Both factory and social inventories are relatively low, and overall inventory issues are not prominent. [14] Hot - Rolled Coil - Production: This week's production was 2.9526 million tons, a decrease of 58,500 tons week - on - week for two consecutive weeks, mainly due to production restrictions during the important meeting. [16] - Inventory: Total inventory was 4.7159 million tons, a slight decrease of 1,000 tons. Factory inventory decreased by 8,000 tons, and social inventory increased by 7,000 tons. [16] - Demand: Apparent consumption was 2.9536 million tons, an increase of 137,900 tons week - on - week, almost equal to production, indicating a tight - balance market. [16] Profitability and Cost - Profitability: Currently, only blast - furnace rebar has a profit, while other varieties are at the break - even point or in the red. Electric - arc furnace steelmaking is generally unprofitable, but there is a profit during off - peak electricity hours, and off - peak electricity steelmaking is expected to increase. [18] - Cost: After the Spring Festival, rebar cost increased from 3,229 yuan/ton to 3,271 yuan/ton, providing support for the futures price. The futures price is at a discount to the spot price, but the basis does not provide trading opportunities. [18] Group 5: Iron Ore Market Analysis Production and Supply - Iron - Water Production: This week's daily iron - water production was 2.212 million tons, a decrease of 63,900 tons week - on - week due to the "Two Sessions" production restrictions, and it is expected to exceed 2.3 million tons from March to early April. [20] - Iron - Ore Shipment: Global iron - ore shipments in March decreased significantly from 3.34 million tons after the festival to 2.894 million tons, with shipments from Australia and Brazil also decreasing. [20] - Iron - Ore Arrival: Due to high previous shipments, arrivals in March increased sharply, leading to an increase in port inventories. [20] Inventory - Port Inventory: The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 17.94732 million tons, an increase of 52,490 tons week - on - week, approaching 18 million tons, which is a significant pressure on the market. [22] - Steel - Mill Inventory: Steel - mill iron - ore inventories are low, especially after the Spring Festival, lower than the same period in previous years. There is a possibility of active replenishment in the future. [22] - Inventory - Consumption Ratio: Due to the decrease in blast - furnace capacity utilization, the inventory - consumption ratio is rising, but it is expected to decline in the future. [22] Group 6: Arbitrage Strategies Inter - Period Arbitrage - The spread between the main and secondary contracts of rebar is stable at around 30 yuan/ton, that of hot - rolled coils is within 20 yuan/ton, and that of iron ore is - 20 yuan/ton. There are few good trading opportunities in steel and ore inter - period arbitrage. [24] Cross - Variety Arbitrage - Strategy 1: Go long on the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread (long hot - rolled coils and short rebar in the main contracts). Try to enter at around 140 yuan/ton. Hold existing arbitrage positions, with a stop - loss at a spread of 120 yuan/ton and a take - profit at over 200 yuan/ton. [24] - Strategy 2: The rebar - iron ore ratio has dropped below 4 and may continue to decline. Keep an eye on it for trading opportunities. [24] Group 7: Rumor Analysis - On the afternoon of March 12, there was a rumor that BHP's Newman powder would be added to the spot restriction list, with the last pick - up on March 20. The rumor is unconfirmed. [25] - If the rumor is true, in the short term, the supply of high - grade iron ore will shrink, pushing up raw - material costs. With the steel - mill restart and replenishment window, iron - ore prices may rise. In the medium term, the market trend will depend on terminal demand and iron - water production. [25] - If the rumor is true, the price difference between varieties will widen, and the near - month contract and spot may be stronger than the far - month contract. [25] - In fact, since September 2025, Sinomine Resource Group has restricted the purchase of BHP's Jimblebar and Jinbao powders. In early March 2026, international media reported an expansion of restrictions to core varieties such as Newman powder and Mac fines, and the market has already partially priced in this information. [25] Group 8: Support and Resistance Levels - Rebar main contract: Support at 3,000 yuan/ton, resistance at 3,200 yuan/ton [5] - Hot - rolled coil: Support at 3,180 yuan/ton, resistance at 3,350 yuan/ton [5] - Iron ore main contract: Support at 750 yuan/ton, resistance at 840 yuan/ton [5] Group 9: Trading Strategies - Continue to hold the long positions in steel and ore recommended in the morning report, and continuously raise the stop - loss line. [6] - Continue to hold the long position in the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread arbitrage strategy, with a stop - loss at a spread of 120 yuan/ton and a take - profit at 200 yuan/ton. [6][24] - Wait for the opportunity to go long on the rebar - iron ore ratio as the ratio has dropped below 4 and may continue to decline. [6][24]