本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2025/09/30 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 沪银期货上涨：多重逻辑共振下的行情演绎 ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 沪银期货价格再次持续走高，主力合约收盘10939元/千克，9月29日单日涨幅达3.92%%，创下阶段性新 高。这轮上涨是宏观预期、供需基本面与市场情绪共同作用的结果。 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ 宏观层面，美联储宽松预期是核心推手。新任美联储理事鸽派发言支持年内降息150个基点，市场预期未来 两次议息会议均将降息，显著降低白银持有成本。叠加俄乌、中东局势紧张，避险资金持续涌入贵金属市 场。 基本面支撑更为坚实。2025年全球白银供需缺口预计达3659吨，连续五年供不应求。光伏装机量大幅增长 带动工业用银需求激增，而白银70%作为铜铅锌副产品产出，扩产受限加剧短缺。 金信期货日刊 不过需警惕短期风险，当前金银比仍高于历史均值，且白银市场规模较小，资金进出易引发波动。中长期 看，降息周期延续与绿色 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term pattern of weak industry and strong macro remains unchanged in the black industry before the National Day. The industry contradictions are not prominent, and it is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term trading. The key lies in the steel demand after the festival to support the current high pig iron production [1][4]. - The glass market is affected by factors such as price increases of major manufacturers and downstream replenishment. Although there is a pressure range above the glass 2601 contract, it is still regarded as bullish in the near future [2][4]. - The supply - demand pattern of coking coal and coke has slightly weakened, and the key after the festival is also the steel demand and the resumption progress of coking coal production [4]. Summary by Related Categories Steel - Last Friday, the rebar futures price dropped significantly. The spot price in Hangzhou dropped to 3300 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract basis is 201. The rebar futures price has fallen below the cost of electric furnace valley electricity and long - process, with low static valuation. The macro policy expectations are rising, but the industrial demand is still weak year - on - year. Focus on the demand in October. The raw material supply - demand has weakened, and coking coal and coke have started to accumulate inventory. The RB2601 has support at 3000 - 3100 [1]. Iron Ore - Recently, the profitability of steel mills has slowly declined but is still at a relatively high level in recent years. The daily average pig iron output last week was 242.36 (+1.34) million tons. It is difficult to see short - term negative feedback. The iron ore has a high valuation in the black system, and the rebar - iron ore ratio is at a historically low level. Before the festival, it follows the steel price trend, and the key after the festival is the steel demand [1]. Glass - Last week, the glass futures first fell and then rose. The spot prices of some major glass manufacturers increased by 100 yuan/ton, and other enterprises followed. The supply side had no changes in production lines, and the daily melting volume remained the same. The national factory inventory continued to decline due to downstream replenishment and futures - cash traders' purchases. The cost of coal - gas has increased, but the profits of spot and petroleum coke have risen, while natural gas is still in a loss state. The processing plants are mainly waiting and seeing, only maintaining rigid demand procurement and a small amount of pre - festival stocking [2]. Soda Ash - The inventory of soda ash plants has decreased significantly due to the accelerated pick - up of goods by futures - cash traders. However, considering the second - phase project of Yuanxing, the output is still expected to increase, and it is expected to fluctuate [4]. Coal and Coke - Last week, the coking coal output continued to rise, with the daily average output of 194 million tons in 523 coking coal mines across the country. Before the festival, the downstream replenished stocks, the coal mine inventory decreased, and the inventory of coal washing plants and coking plants increased, with a large increase in total inventory. The second round of coke price cuts was implemented, the coke output decreased slightly last week, and the total inventory continued to accumulate. The short - term supply - demand pattern of coking coal and coke has slightly weakened [4].

金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2025/09/29 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 沪银期货上涨：多重逻辑共振下的行情演绎 ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 沪银期货价格持续走高，主力合约收盘10632元/千克，9月26日单日涨幅达2.27%，成交量近百万手，创 下阶段性新高。这轮上涨是宏观预期、供需基本面与市场情绪共同作用的结果。 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ 宏观层面，美联储宽松预期是核心推手。新任美联储理事鸽派发言支持年内降息150个基点，市场预期未来 两次议息会议均将降息，显著降低白银持有成本。叠加俄乌、中东局势紧张，避险资金持续涌入贵金属市 场。 基本面支撑更为坚实。2025年全球白银供需缺口预计达3659吨，连续五年供不应求。光伏装机量大幅增长 带动工业用银需求激增，而白银70%作为铜铅锌副产品产出，扩产受限加剧短缺。 不过需警惕短期风险，当前金银比仍高于历史均值，且白银市场规模较小，资金进出易引发波动。中长期 看，降息周期 ...

金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2025/09/26 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 玻璃期货大涨：多重预期下的上涨行情 9月25日玻璃期货再次上涨，是政策预期、供需边际改善与板块联动共振的结果。 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 9月24日，工业和信息化部、自然资源部、生态环境部、住房城乡建设部水利部、农业农村部关于印发《建 材行业稳增长工作方案（2025—2026年）》的通知，其中提到，严格水泥玻璃产能调控。严禁新增水泥熟 料、平板玻璃产能，新建改建项目须制定产能置换方案。严禁从非大气污染防治重点区域向大气污染防治 重点区域转移水泥熟料、平板玻璃产能。 9月25日，周内玻璃产销前低后高，下半周在消息面提振下，中下游采购订货积极，多地企业发布涨价通知， 产销率大幅提升，带动企业库存继续下降。 截止9月25日，全国浮法玻璃样本企业总库存5935.5万重箱，环比下降155.3万重箱或2.55%，创1月末以 来新 ...

金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2025/09/25 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 玻璃期货大涨：多重预期下的上涨行情 9月24日玻璃期货大涨，是政策预期、供需边际改善与板块联动共振的结果。 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 9月24日，工业和信息化部、自然资源部、生态环境部、住房城乡建设部水利部、农业农村部关于印发《建 材行业稳增长工作方案（2025—2026年）》的通知，其中提到，严格水泥玻璃产能调控。严禁新增水泥熟 料、平板玻璃产能，新建改建项目须制定产能置换方案。严禁从非大气污染防治重点区域向大气污染防治 重点区域转移水泥熟料、平板玻璃产能。 政策面成为核心推力，多地购房补贴、房贷利率下调等地产支持政策叠加"保交楼"推进，修复了市场对 建材需求的信心，沙河"煤改气"传闻更提前点燃供给收缩预期。 供需端呈现积极信号，华北主产区库存持续去化，沙河现货市场多家厂家抬价出库，贸易商拿货积极性回 升，产销环比 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The price of Shanghai Silver futures has been rising strongly, with the main contract reaching 10,317 yuan on September 22, a 3.81% increase, hitting a record high. The COMEX silver futures have accumulated a 41% increase since the beginning of the year, far exceeding the 35% increase of gold during the same period. The rise is due to three main reasons: macro - level factors, fundamental factors, and technical factors [3]. - The Shanghai Composite Index is expected to fluctuate at a high level overall. The market has a positive expectation due to a press conference at 3 pm today, and relevant departments are promoting the formulation of national standards for pre - made dishes [7]. - The gold market is trading on the expectation of an interest rate cut in October. After a three - day adjustment, gold has reached a new high with a strong upward trend and can continue to be bullish [11]. - For iron ore, the start of restocking may support raw materials. Technically, it is still in a high - level wide - range oscillation range and should be treated with an oscillatory mindset [14]. - For glass, it declined today. Attention should be paid to the support level of the lower platform. The daily melting is basically stable, the factory inventory has slightly decreased, but the recovery of downstream deep - processing orders is insufficient [18][19]. - For soybean oil, on September 12, the domestic commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.26 million tons. High inventory restricts the price increase space, and it should be treated with a bearish oscillatory view [22]. - For pulp, the price in Shandong is stable, the port inventory is slightly decreasing, and it remains at a medium - high level. Before the Mid - Autumn Festival peak season, there is an expected boost, but no improvement is seen yet. It is expected to oscillate at a low level, and high - selling and low - buying within the range can be considered [25]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Hot Focus - The continuous rise of Shanghai Silver futures is mainly due to: macro - level factors such as the Fed's monetary policy shift (new Fed governor's dovish speech supporting a 150 - basis - point interest rate cut this year and market expectations of two 25 - basis - point cuts in the next two meetings) and rising geopolitical tensions; fundamental factors including supply - demand imbalance in the silver market (increased demand from the photovoltaic industry and a global supply - demand gap of 3,659 tons in 2025) and increased investment value; and technical factors such as a bullish moving - average arrangement and a MACD golden cross [3]. Technical Analysis - Stock Index Futures - The Shanghai Composite Index closed with a small positive line with a lower shadow. A press conference today is expected to be positive for the market, and relevant departments are promoting the formulation of national standards for pre - made dishes. The market is expected to oscillate at a high level [7]. Technical Analysis - Gold - The market is trading on the expectation of an interest rate cut in October. After a three - day adjustment, gold reached a new high with a strong upward trend and can continue to be bullish [11]. Technical Analysis - Iron Ore - The supply is stable, steel mills are gradually resuming production, and iron ore restocking before the National Day may support prices. Technically, it is in a high - level wide - range oscillation range [14][15]. Technical Analysis - Glass - The glass price declined today. Attention should be paid to the lower platform support. The daily melting is stable, the factory inventory has slightly decreased, but the recovery of downstream deep - processing orders is insufficient [18][19]. Technical Analysis - Soybean Oil - On September 12, the domestic commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.26 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 10,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 100,000 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 110,000 tons. High inventory restricts the price increase space [22]. Technical Analysis - Pulp - The price of pulp in Shandong is stable, the port inventory is slightly decreasing and remains at a medium - high level. Before the Mid - Autumn Festival peak season, there is an expected boost, but no improvement is seen yet. It is expected to oscillate at a low level, and high - selling and low - buying within the range can be considered [25].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings were provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The soybean oil futures market is expected to be volatile and bearish due to factors such as high domestic soybean supply, low demand, and weak international soybean futures [4][22]. - The stock index futures market is expected to continue high - level volatile adjustment next week [7]. - The gold market is expected to undergo a period of adjustment after a decline [10][11]. - The iron ore market should be treated with a volatile mindset, as supply is stable and steel mills' restocking may support raw materials [14][15]. - The glass market should be monitored for the support at the lower platform, with attention on the restocking situation as the peak season approaches [18][19]. - The pulp market is expected to maintain low - level volatility, and high - selling and low - buying within the range can be considered [26]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Oil - On September 19, 2025, soybean oil futures rose and then fell [3]. - The domestic soybean arrival volume remains high, the oil mill operating rate is at a high level in recent years, and last week's actual crushing volume reached 2.3039 million tons. The soybean supply is sufficient, leading to an increase in soybean oil output. As of September 5, the soybean oil commercial inventory reached 1.2513 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,500 tons [4]. - On September 12, the domestic soybean oil commercial inventory was 1.26 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 100,000 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 110,000 tons [22]. Stock Index Futures - A - share market: The three major A - share indexes opened lower in the morning, fluctuated throughout the day, were mostly in the positive territory, and declined near the end of the session. The Shanghai Composite Index closed with a small negative line [8]. - News: In July, China reduced its holdings of US Treasury bonds by $25.7 billion, and the holding scale reached a new low since 2009. Shanghai optimized and adjusted the policies related to the pilot individual housing property tax [7]. Gold - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the gold market declined, with the expectation of a period of adjustment [10][11]. Iron Ore - The supply side has stable shipments. Steel mills are showing signs of resuming production, and molten iron is expected to remain at a high level. As the National Day approaches in the middle and late period, steel mills' restocking may support raw materials [14][15]. Glass - The daily melting volume is basically stable, the factory inventory has slightly declined, but the recovery of downstream deep - processing orders is insufficient. Attention should be paid to the restocking situation as the peak season approaches [19]. Pulp - The pulp price in Shandong region remained stable today, and the port inventory started to decline slightly, remaining at a medium - high level. There is an expected boost before the Mid - Autumn Festival peak season, but no improvement has been seen yet, so it is expected to maintain low - level volatility [26].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - On September 18, 2025, the soybean oil futures continuously declined with a drop of 1.64%. Multiple unfavorable factors led to the decline, and the subsequent trend should be treated with a volatile and bearish outlook [3][4]. - The stock index futures are expected to continue high - level volatile adjustment in the short term [7]. - Gold is expected to be adjusted for some time after closing with a mid -阴线 due to the so - called "buy on rumor, sell on news" effect after the Fed's normal 25 - basis - point rate cut [11][12]. - Iron ore may be supported by restocking. Technically, it is in a high - level wide - range volatile range and should be treated with a volatile mindset [15][16]. - Glass continues to adjust today, and attention should be paid to the support level of the lower platform. The downstream deep - processing orders' recovery is insufficient, and attention should be paid to the restocking situation approaching the peak season [19][20]. - High inventory of soybean oil suppresses the price increase space, and it should be treated with a volatile and bearish outlook [23]. - Pulp in Shandong maintains stable prices, with port inventory starting to decline slightly. It is expected to be boosted before the Mid - Autumn Festival peak season but has not improved yet. It is maintained at a low - level volatile view, and high - selling and low - buying within the range can be considered [27]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Soybean Oil - Supply side: The domestic soybean arrival volume remains high, the oil mill operating rate is at a high level in recent years, and the actual crushing volume last week reached 2.3039 million tons. The soybean supply is sufficient, leading to increased soybean oil output. The port soybean inventory has increased to 9.661 million tons, and the soybean oil commercial inventory has continuously increased, reaching 1.2513 million tons as of September 5, a month - on - month increase of 12,500 tons [4]. - Demand side: There is not much new demand currently. Although some groups have started small - package stocking, the external sales of bulk oil have decreased, and it is not yet the time for the concentrated release of Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day stocking demand, so the demand side has insufficient support for prices [4]. - International market: The US soybean futures have been running weakly, weakening the support for domestic soybean oil [4]. Stock Index Futures - Market performance: The three major A - share indexes opened lower in the morning, rose rapidly, then fell back at noon, and suddenly dived in the afternoon. The Shanghai Composite Index closed with a mid -阴线 [7][8]. - News: The Fed announced its first 25 - basis - point rate cut in 2025 as expected, and the securities trading stamp duty in August increased by 226% year - on - year [7]. Gold - The Fed's normal 25 - basis - point rate cut, in line with market expectations, led to a general decline in the commodity market, and gold closed with a mid -阴线 [12]. Iron Ore - Supply side: The shipping is stable. Recently, steel mills show signs of gradually resuming production, and the hot metal is expected to remain at a high level [16]. - Demand side: Approaching the National Day in the middle and late period, steel mills' restocking may support the raw materials [15][16]. Glass - Supply side: The daily melting is basically stable, and the factory inventory has slightly declined [20]. - Demand side: The recovery of downstream deep - processing orders is insufficient, and attention should be paid to the restocking situation approaching the peak season [20]. Pulp - Market situation: The pulp price in Shandong today remains stable, and the port inventory starts to decline slightly, remaining at a medium - to - high level. It is expected to be boosted before the Mid - Autumn Festival peak season but has not improved yet [27].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel price is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend in the short - term, with potential for further increase if downstream demand exceeds expectations in October. The "14th Five - Year Plan" content will also affect the market fluctuation. [4] - The coking coal and coke are expected to oscillate in the short - term, and the strategy is to buy on dips later. The supply of coking coal has policy support, but the upside is restricted by steel demand and profit. [9][11][12] - The iron ore price may face pressure at high levels as the market may not have priced in the rapid weakening of terminal demand in the third quarter, although domestic manufacturing steel demand is expected to recover in September. [13][14] - The ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are affected by high supply pressure. Ferrosilicon may rebound slightly due to market sentiment, while silicomanganese will oscillate at the bottom in the short - term. [15][16] 3. Summary by Category Steel - **Related Information**: In August 2025, China's crude steel output was 77.369 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7%; from January to August, the cumulative crude steel output was 671.806 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8%. In August, automobile production was 2.752 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 10.5%; from January to August, automobile production was 20.829 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 10.5%. The spot prices of steel in different regions decreased by 10 yuan. [3] - **Logic Analysis**: The black - metal sector was volatile and slightly stronger at night. This week, the hot - metal output increased slightly, and the national building - material output decreased. Inventory continued to accumulate, but the rate slowed down. Downstream demand improved with the temperature drop. Market news and low valuation led to the price increase. With the arrival of the peak season, steel demand will continue to improve, and there is support for the black - metal sector. [4] - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: Steel maintains a volatile and slightly stronger trend. Arbitrage: Hold the long 1 - 5 spread and shrink the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread. Options: Buy out - of - the - money options of RB01. [4][5] Coking Coal and Coke - **Related Information**: On the 17th, the coking - coal auction prices in Linfen mostly rose. This week, the national raw - coal daily output increased, with Shanxi's output rising. There were news of coal - mine production cuts and capacity checks. The prices of coke and coking - coal warehouse receipts were provided. [8][9] - **Logic Analysis**: The coking coal and coke oscillated at night. The coking - coal spot market sentiment was good recently. The supply of coking coal is restricted by policies, but imported coal provides some supplement. The upside is restricted by steel demand and profit. [9][11] - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: Expected to oscillate in the short - term, and buy on dips later. Arbitrage: Hold the long 1 - 5 spread of coking coal. Options: Wait and see. Spot - futures: Wait and see. [12] Iron Ore - **Related Information**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points and is expected to cut twice more this year. From January to August, the national general public budget revenue and expenditure data were released. The real - estate market showed signs of stabilization. The spot prices of iron ore in Qingdao Port and the basis of the main contract were provided. [13] - **Logic Analysis**: The iron ore oscillated narrowly at night. In the third quarter, global iron - ore shipments increased, mainly from Brazilian mines. Terminal steel demand weakened in China but remained high overseas. The iron - ore price may face pressure at high levels. [13][14] - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: Hedge at high spot prices. Arbitrage: Wait and see. Options: Wait and see. [14] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Related Information**: The spot prices of manganese ore in Tianjin Port on the 17th were provided. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points and is expected to cut 50 basis points more in 2025. [15] - **Logic Analysis**: The spot price of ferrosilicon was slightly weaker on the 17th. Supply decreased slightly but remained high. Market sentiment was boosted by the progress of Sino - US economic and trade negotiations. The spot price of silicomanganese was slightly weaker, with increased production and high iron - water output, but the demand was dragged down by the decline in electric - furnace operating rates. The cost of manganese ore supported the price. [15][16] - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: Follow the market and be slightly stronger in the short - term, but the target should not be too high due to high supply. Arbitrage: Wait and see. Options: Sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations at high prices. [18]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the iron ore in the black building materials sector is "oscillating" [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The iron ore market had a decline on Wednesday and a rise during the night session. The supply of iron ore decreased as the arrival volume declined this period, and the port inventory continued to decrease with no prominent inventory contradiction. The iron ore main contract 2601 is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with the previous high of 833 as an important resistance level and 750 as the support level. Short - term operations are recommended [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Review - Iron ore closed down on Wednesday and up during the night session [3]. Important Information - In August, the daily output of crude steel of key steel enterprises was 211,960 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.5% [3]. - The China Association of the National Shipbuilding Industry expects that the annual shipbuilding completion volume in China will be around 51 million deadweight tons in 2025 [3]. - The Jiangsu Iron and Steel Association believes that it is urgent to rectify the "involution - style" competition [3]. Market Logic - On the 17th, the price of 61.5% PB powder at Qingdao Port was 792 yuan/ton wet (-11), the price of first - grade coke at Rizhao Port was 1,550 yuan/ton (-60), the price of quasi - first - grade coke was 1,480 yuan/ton (-50), the price of Shanghai rebar was 3,260 yuan/ton (-10), and the price of Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3,420 yuan/ton (-10). The arrival volume of iron ore decreased this period, and the port inventory continued to decrease [3]. Trading Strategy - The iron ore main contract 2601 is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with the previous high of 833 as an important resistance level and 750 as the support level. Short - term operations are recommended [3].