Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint - The coking coal futures are rising, but the risk of high - level oscillation and pull - back after reaching a high has significantly increased. In the coal price compensation stage, it is recommended to buy on dips [3][4]. - For stock index futures, it is recommended to short on rallies. The stock index is expected to rise and then fall in the early trading session of the next day [7][8]. - For gold, after a rebound, a bearish approach can be considered [11]. - For iron ore, the terminal demand needs time to start, and long - position holders should protect their profits near the previous high [14]. - For glass, before the upper pressure is broken, it should be treated with a wide - range oscillation mindset [18]. - For methanol, the strong market is expected to continue in the short term [22]. - For pulp, although there is still some downward space, there is also a certain bottom support, and attention should be paid to position control [24]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal - The coking coal main contract rose to 1250 yuan/ton, showing short - term strength [3]. - The core driving factor for the limit - up is that the Middle East geopolitical situation has raised the expectation of energy substitution, and the strong international oil and gas prices have driven up the coal price premium. If the conflict cannot be resolved in the short term, the coal supply - demand situation may change significantly [4]. - The suppressing factors and risk points include stable domestic coal mine production, high Mongolian coal imports, high total inventory, limited steel mill profits, and unimproved terminal demand. After the limit - up, the sentiment is over - heated, and the technical indicators are overbought [4]. - The operation reference is that the upper integer - level resistance is strong, and it is likely to oscillate when it first reaches it. One can go long after a stable pull - back. Strict risk control is required, and attention should be paid to geopolitical easing, restocking rhythm, and inventory data changes [5]. Stock Index Futures - The stock index opened higher, fell back, and then continued to strengthen in a volatile manner on Tuesday. Technically, it is expected to rise and then fall in the 5 - minute cycle of the early trading session of the next day. The operation suggestion is to short on rallies [7][8]. Gold - The red - green line of the gold daily - level chart turns bearish. After opening higher, it fell back again and showed an oscillating trend throughout the day. After a rebound, a bearish approach can be considered [11]. Iron Ore - The supply of iron ore from Australia and Brazil maintains a normal rhythm, and there is still an expectation of loose supply in the medium - and long - term. The terminal demand needs time to start, and attention should be paid to the impact of policy and sentiment. Long - position holders should protect their profits near the previous high [14][15]. Glass - The daily melting volume has declined, and the inventory has slightly decreased. It is necessary to pay attention to the resumption progress of deep - processing enterprises after the festival. In the short term, it is more affected by the overall sentiment of commodities. Before the upper pressure is broken, it should be treated with a wide - range oscillation mindset [18][19]. Methanol - In March, due to intensified geopolitical conflicts, enhanced linkage of energy and chemical products, a strong market sentiment, and the tense Middle East situation, the supply of China's main methanol imports has been significantly tightened, and the import cost has increased. The strong market of methanol futures is expected to continue in the short term [22]. Pulp - The current pulp futures price has broken through the low of nearly a year ago. Although there is still some downward space, it is relatively limited, which has attracted some corporate customers to take over. The number of long - position customers has increased, and there is a certain bottom support. Attention should be paid to position control [24].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Core Views - The short - term trend of coking coal is strong, but the risks of high - level fluctuations and pullbacks are significantly increasing. Gold can be considered for short - selling after a rebound. The methanol market is expected to continue its strong trend in the short term. For other products, specific analysis and operation suggestions are provided based on supply, demand, and technical aspects [3][11][21] Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal - The main contract of coking coal hit the daily limit, reaching 1,289.5 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of about 11% and a cumulative increase of over 26%, hitting a new high in 2026. The core drivers of the limit - up are the energy substitution expectation pushed by the Middle - East geopolitical situation, the increase in domestic steel mill production and iron - water output, and the obvious increase in positions on the capital side. The suppression and risk points include high total inventory, limited steel mill profits, and over - heated sentiment after the limit - up. Operationally, it is recommended to be cautious near the integer - level resistance, set stop - losses and take - profits, and pay attention to geopolitical easing, restocking rhythm, and inventory data [3] Stock Index Futures - The market opened lower and fluctuated downwards on Monday, and the Shanghai Composite Index once fell below 3,800 points. Technically, it is in an accelerated decline phase, and it is recommended to wait and see [6] Gold - The red - green line on the daily chart of gold has turned bearish. Gold has been in a weak adjustment throughout the day, and it can be considered for short - selling after a rebound [11] Iron Ore - The shipments from Australia and Brazil maintain a normal rhythm, and there is still an expectation of loose supply in the medium - to - long - term. The demand side may see an increase in steel mill production after the holiday, but the start of terminal demand still takes time. Technically, when approaching the previous high, long - position holders should pay attention to protecting profits [13][14] Glass - The daily melting has declined slightly, and the inventory has decreased slightly. In the short term, it is more affected by the overall sentiment of commodities. Technically, it should be regarded as a wide - range shock before the upper resistance is broken [18] Methanol - The rising market is driven by multiple positive factors such as the unexpected restart of port MTO plants, a sharp decrease in import arrivals, and a surge in foreign natural gas prices. The spot market has followed the increase actively, and the price difference between ports and the inland has widened rapidly. It is expected that the strong market will continue in the short term [21] Pulp - The current futures price of pulp has broken through the low of nearly a year ago. Although there is still some downward space, it is relatively limited, attracting some enterprise customers to take over. There is some bottom support, and attention should be paid to position control [23]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The steel and ore market is expected to fluctuate. The support and pressure levels for rebar, hot-rolled coil, and iron ore are given, and specific trading strategies are proposed [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - On Friday, rebar and hot-rolled coil closed down, while iron ore closed up. All closed up during the night session [1] Important Information - On March 21, Trump threatened to attack Iranian power plants if the Strait of Hormuz was not fully opened, and the Iranian speaker responded that if attacked, important facilities in the Middle East would be targeted and oil prices would rise long - term [1] - An Iranian official proposed six conditions for a truce on March 22, including ensuring no more war, closing US military bases in the Middle East, and receiving compensation [1] - The average capacity utilization rate of 94 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 56.57%, up 6.13 percentage points month - on - month and 1.67 percentage points year - on - year [1] - The daily average output of fine powder from 186 mine enterprises was 47.52 tons, up 1.41 tons month - on - month and down 1.33 tons year - on - year. Mine fine powder inventory was 100.47 tons, up 11.19 tons month - on - month [1] - From March 9 - 15, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3048.8 tons, up 151.0 tons month - on - month. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 2464.4 tons, up 122.3 tons month - on - month [1] - From March 9 - 15, the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2317.0 tons, down 380.5 tons month - on - month; at 45 ports was 2215.0 tons, down 394.9 tons month - on - month; at six northern ports was 1230.2 tons, down 234.3 tons month - on - month [1] - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 79.78%, up 1.44 percentage points week - on - week and down 2.18 percentage points year - on - year; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 85.53%, up 2.61 percentage points week - on - week and down 3.17 percentage points year - on - year; the steel mill profitability rate was 42.42%, up 1.29 percentage points week - on - week and down 10.83 percentage points year - on - year; the daily average pig iron output was 228.15 tons, up 6.95 tons week - on - week and down 8.11 tons year - on - year [1] - From March 16 - 20, the national average rebar price was 3329 yuan/ton, down 0.3% week - on - week. Rebar production was 203.33 tons, inventory was 889.41 tons, and consumption was 208.09 tons [1] - Last week, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 17814.18 tons, down 133.14 tons month - on - month [1] Market Logic - On the 20th, the market prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port rose by 3 yuan/wet ton [2] - On the 20th, the price of Shanghai Zhongtian rebar was 3240 yuan, down 10 yuan; the price of Shanghai Angang/Benxi Steel hot - rolled coil was 3290 yuan, unchanged [2] - On the 20th, the port coke spot market was stable. The trading volume at the two ports increased slightly, and the total inventory was stable compared to the previous day [2] - This week, the supply of five major steel products was 839.82 tons, up 18.85 tons week - on - week (2.3%); the total inventory was 1946.23 tons, down 28.66 tons week - on - week (1.5%); the apparent consumption was 868.28 tons, up 8.8% week - on - week [2] - This week, the daily pig iron output was 228.18 tons, up 6.95 tons, and the profitability rate was 42.42%, up 1.29% from last week [2] Trading Strategies - It is expected that the steel and ore market will fluctuate. The support and pressure levels for rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore are given [2] - For single - side trading, short - term operations are recommended [2] - For arbitrage, continue to hold the strategy of going long on the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread. Set the stop - loss level at a spread of 130 and the take - profit level at around 200 [2] - The rebar - iron ore ratio is 3.83. It is recommended to go long on the rebar - iron ore ratio (long rebar and short iron ore) with a target ratio of over 4, while also paying attention to the impact of contract roll - over [2]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the Goldtrust Futures Daily Journal, dated March 20, 2026 [1] - The report focuses on the sharp decline of Shanghai silver futures and technical analysis of various futures products [2][3] Group 2: Shanghai Silver Futures Analysis - **Reasons for the decline**: The main reasons for the more than 10% plunge of the Shanghai silver main contract to a minimum of 17,701 yuan/kg are the triple resonance of the Fed's hawkish expectations, the surge in the US dollar and US Treasury yields, and the concentrated escape of high - position profit - taking orders. Specific factors include macro - policy suppression, sentiment and capital stampede, the characteristics of the variety, and technical breakdown [3] - **Operation suggestions**: In the short term, strictly control positions, mainly short on rallies. Be cautious about bottom - fishing, and consider lightly testing long positions after the stabilization signal (such as volume contraction and stop - falling, MACD bottom divergence) appears, and strictly set stop - losses [4] Group 3: Technical Analysis of Other Futures Stock Index Futures - The market continued to gap down and move lower throughout the day with shrinking trading volume. Technically, there may be a repair in the early trading tomorrow at the 5 - minute level. Operationally, mainly short on rallies [6][7] Gold - The red - green line on the daily level of gold has turned bearish. Gold had a continuous sharp decline in the afternoon, showing a weak trend. It is still recommended to take a short - selling approach in the future [11] Iron Ore - Australia and Brazil's shipments maintain a normal rhythm. In the medium - to - long term, it is in the mine production capacity release cycle, and there is still an expectation of loose supply. On the demand side, steel mills' resumption of production after the festival may have a certain driving effect, but the start of terminal demand still takes time. Technically, near the previous high, long - position holders should protect their profits [14][15] Glass - The daily melting volume has declined, and the inventory has slightly decreased. Attention should be paid to the resumption progress of deep - processing enterprises after the festival. In the short term, it is more affected by the overall sentiment of commodities. Technically, before the upper pressure is broken through, it should be regarded as a wide - range shock [18][19] Methanol - The rising market is driven by multiple positive factors such as the unexpected resumption of production of port MTO devices, a sharp decrease in import arrivals, and a surge in foreign natural gas prices. The spot market has actively followed the rise, and the price difference between ports and the inland has rapidly widened. It is expected that the strong market will continue in the short term [22] Pulp - The current futures price of pulp has broken through the low of nearly a year ago. Although it is expected that there is still some room for decline, the downward space is relatively limited, attracting some corporate customers to take over. The number of long - position customers has increased, and there is a certain bottom support. Attention should be paid to position control [25]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Today, the alumina futures rose by 3.4% due to Guinea's policy to restrict bauxite mining and exports, geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, and rising shipping and import costs, along with market sentiment [3]. - In the short - term (1 - 2 weeks), the alumina futures will be in a strong - side shock with upward pressure. The main contract AO2605 will likely fluctuate between 2900 - 3200 yuan/ton [3]. - In the medium - term (1 - 2 months), the price will decline and return to the cost range of 2700 - 2900 yuan/ton as new production capacity is released and demand growth is slow [3]. - In the long - term, the price will be in a low - level shock, and only significant geopolitical escalation or policy changes can lead to a trend - like market [3]. - The stock market rebounded today after hitting a low, with shrinking trading volume. Technically, today's rise is a repair of yesterday's decline, and the 5 - minute level needs adjustment tomorrow morning. Short - term trading should follow the shock strategy [5][6]. - Gold's daily - level red - green line turns bearish, and it will maintain a weak - side shock. A short - selling strategy is recommended [10]. - For iron ore, supply is expected to be loose in the medium - to - long - term, and demand recovery needs time. Near the previous high, long - position holders should protect their profits [12][13]. - For glass, daily melting has declined and inventory has slightly decreased. In the short - term, it is affected by the overall commodity sentiment and should be treated as a wide - range shock before breaking through the upper pressure [16][17]. - For methanol, due to geopolitical factors in Iran, domestic methanol imports will be low for at least 1 - 2 months. As of March 18, 2026, the total port inventory was 126.17 tons, a decrease of 5.11 tons from the previous period [20]. - For pulp, the conflict in the Middle East has brought uncertainty to the Shanghai Pulp Week. Suppliers expect price increases, while Chinese buyers want price cuts [22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Alumina Futures - Price increase reason: Guinea's policy on bauxite, geopolitical conflicts, and cost increases [3]. - Short - term trend: Strong - side shock with upward pressure, main contract AO2605 in 2900 - 3200 yuan/ton [3]. - Medium - term trend: Decline and return to 2700 - 2900 yuan/ton [3]. - Long - term trend: Low - level shock, trend - like market needs special conditions [3]. Stock Market - Market performance: Rebounded after hitting a low, shrinking volume, technical repair [5][6]. - Trading strategy: Short - term shock strategy [5]. Gold - Market trend: Weak - side shock, short - selling strategy [10]. Iron Ore - Supply: Loose in the medium - to - long - term [13]. - Demand: Recovery needs time [12]. - Trading advice: Protect long - position profits near the previous high [12]. Glass - Supply and demand: Daily melting decline, inventory decrease, affected by overall commodity sentiment [16][17]. - Trading strategy: Wide - range shock before breaking through upper pressure [16]. Methanol - Supply: Low imports in the next 1 - 2 months due to geopolitical factors [20]. - Inventory: As of March 18, 2026, 126.17 tons, a decrease of 5.11 tons [20]. Pulp - Market situation: Uncertainty due to Middle East conflict, different price expectations between suppliers and buyers [22].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Today, the alumina futures rose by 3.4% due to Guinea's policy to restrict bauxite mining and exports, geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, increased shipping costs and bauxite import costs, and capital sentiment [3]. - In the short - term (1 - 2 weeks), the alumina futures will have a strong - side oscillation with upward pressure. The main contract AO2605 is likely to fluctuate between 2900 - 3200 yuan/ton, and it will fall back easily if the geopolitical situation doesn't further escalate after breaking through 3150 [3]. - In the medium - term (1 - 2 months), the price will oscillate and decline, returning to the cost range of 2700 - 2900 yuan/ton due to the release of new production capacity and low demand growth [3]. - In the long - term, the price will mainly oscillate at a low level. Only significant escalation of geopolitical conflicts, tightening of Guinea's policies, or substantial regulation of domestic production capacity may lead to a trend - like market [3]. - For the stock market, the market showed a unilateral decline after a morning rally today, with shrinking trading volume, and there may be a new low tomorrow [6]. - For gold, the daily - level red - green line has turned bearish, and it maintains a weak - side oscillation. A short - selling strategy is recommended [11]. - For iron ore, although there is supply pressure in the long - term, it is running strongly recently, and a long - side view can be maintained [13][14]. - For glass, it is affected by the overall commodity sentiment in the short - term, and a wide - range oscillation view can be taken before the upper pressure is broken [17]. - For methanol, due to geopolitical factors in Iran, the import volume will be low in the next 1 - 2 months, and the fundamental outlook is positive [19]. - For paper pulp, the conflict in the Middle East has brought uncertainty. Suppliers expect price increases, while Chinese buyers want price cuts [21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Alumina Futures - **Reasons for price increase**: Guinea's policy to restrict bauxite mining and exports, geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, increased shipping costs and bauxite import costs, and capital sentiment [3]. - **Short - term trend**: Strong - side oscillation with upward pressure, main contract AO2605 likely to fluctuate between 2900 - 3200 yuan/ton [3]. - **Medium - term trend**: Oscillate and decline, return to the cost range of 2700 - 2900 yuan/ton [3]. - **Long - term trend**: Low - level oscillation, only special situations may lead to a trend - like market [3]. Stock Market - **Today's performance**: The market showed a unilateral decline after a morning rally, with shrinking trading volume [6]. - **Outlook**: There may be a new low tomorrow [6]. Gold - **Technical analysis**: The daily - level red - green line has turned bearish [11]. - **Strategy**: A short - selling strategy is recommended [11]. Iron Ore - **Supply situation**: Medium - to long - term supply is expected to be loose, but it is running strongly recently [13][14]. - **Strategy**: A long - side view can be maintained [13]. Glass - **Current situation**: Daily melting has declined, inventory has slightly decreased, and it is affected by the overall commodity sentiment in the short - term [17]. - **Strategy**: A wide - range oscillation view can be taken before the upper pressure is broken [17]. Methanol - **Influence factors**: Geopolitical factors in Iran lead to low import volume in the next 1 - 2 months [19]. - **Outlook**: The fundamental outlook is positive [19]. Paper Pulp - **Situation**: The conflict in the Middle East has brought uncertainty. Suppliers expect price increases, while Chinese buyers want price cuts [21].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The terminal demand in the first two months shows a pattern where real estate still drags, infrastructure strongly supports, and manufacturing has a structural recovery, with the demand structure tilting towards infrastructure + manufacturing [1] - The real - estate new construction and construction area growth rates continue to deteriorate, strongly dragging down and suppressing steel demand [1] - With the front - loading of special bonds and the acceleration of key projects, the physical workload of infrastructure will increase from March, and building material demand is expected to pick up [1] - The steel - using demand in the manufacturing industry is relatively resilient, and the demand for sheet metal is rising steadily [1] - The crude steel output in the first two months decreased year - on - year, and the supply side has narrowed [1] - The iron ore shipping volume has increased again, and there is still pressure on the supply side of port arrivals in the later period [1][2] - The trends of rebar and hot - rolled coils depend more on the quality of demand and the game between expectations and reality. The demand for iron ore is expected to increase with the rise of molten iron output. Steel mills are likely to replenish inventory actively, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio tends to decline. The trend is expected to be bullish, but there may be a short - term gap filling [2] Summary by Directory Market Review - On Monday, rebar and iron ore closed down, while hot - rolled coils closed up. All closed up during the night session [1] Important Information - From March 9 to March 15, 2026, global shipyards received 44 + 4 new ship orders, with Chinese shipyards receiving 28+4, Japanese shipyards receiving 1, and South Korean shipyards receiving 11 [1] - From January to February, among 41 major industries, 35 had year - on - year growth in added value, and the automobile manufacturing industry grew by 3.4% [1] - From January to February 2026, China's pig iron output was 13,770 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.7%; crude steel output was 16,034 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.6%; and steel output was 22,119 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1% [1] - From January to February, the national real estate development investment was 961.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.1%, with the decline narrowing by 6.1 percentage points compared to the whole of last year; residential investment was 728.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.7%, with the decline narrowing by 5.6 percentage points [1] - From January to February, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 5,272.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%. Infrastructure investment increased by 11.4% year - on - year [1] Market Logic - In terms of terminal demand, real estate decline in the first two months slowed down compared to December but was still worse than the same period last year. Infrastructure investment growth was 11.40%, better than the negative growth in 2025 and higher than 5.6% in the same period last year. Manufacturing growth was 3.1%, better than 2025 but worse than 9.0% in the same period last year [1] - In the real - estate sector, the growth rates of new construction and construction area were - 11.7% and - 23.1% respectively, continuing to deteriorate and worse than the same period last year, strongly dragging down steel demand [1] - In infrastructure, with the front - loading of special bonds and the acceleration of key projects, physical workload will increase from March, and building material demand is expected to pick up [1] - In the manufacturing industry, the steel - using demand is relatively resilient, and the demand for sheet metal from machinery, automobiles, and new - energy equipment is rising steadily [1] - The crude steel output in the first two months decreased year - on - year, and the supply side has narrowed [1] - From March 9 to 15, the total arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China was 23.17 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.805 million tons; the total arrival volume at 45 ports was 22.15 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.949 million tons. The global iron ore shipping volume was 30.488 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.51 million tons. The shipping volume from Australia and Brazil was 24.644 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.223 million tons [1] Trading Strategies - Hold long positions in steel and ore, and continuously raise the stop - loss line [2] - Hold the long spread strategy of hot - rolled coil and rebar. The spread at the closing price on Monday was 159. The suggested stop - loss spread is 120, and the take - profit spread is 200 [2] - Wait for the opportunity to go long on the rebar - to - iron ore ratio as the current ratio of 3.88 may continue to decline [2] - The support level of rebar main contract is 3000, and the pressure level is 3200. The support level of hot - rolled coil is 3180, and the pressure level is 3350. The support level of iron ore main contract is 750, and the pressure level is 840 [2]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Steel and Ore: Focus on the Game between Demand Expectations and Reality, and Pay Attention to Cross - Variety Arbitrage Opportunities" [2] - Report Date: March 13, 2026 [2] - Researcher: Ji Xiaoyun [3] - Contact Information: 010 - 56711796 [3] - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F3066027 [3] - Futures Trading Consultation Number: Z0011402 [3] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information provided. Group 3: Core Views - Steel: After the important meeting, steel production is expected to increase, especially blast - furnace rebar and hot - rolled coil production. Iron - water production will rise above 2.3 million tons by the end of March or early April. Rebar demand has initially started, and its sustainability depends on daily building materials transactions. Hot - rolled coils are in a tight - balance market, but production is likely to increase. The overall macro - environment is loose, and the trends of rebar and hot - rolled coils depend on demand quality and the game between expectations and reality, with potential for upward movement. [4] - Iron Ore: Rumors have short - term impacts on the market but are unconfirmed. As iron - water production increases, iron - ore demand is certain to grow. Although port inventories are rising, steel - mill inventories are low, and there is a high possibility of active replenishment, with the inventory - consumption ratio expected to decline. The trend is expected to be bullish, but there may be a short - term fill of the gap. [4] Group 4: Steel Market Analysis Rebar - Production: This week, rebar production increased by 219,900 tons week - on - week, mainly contributed by short - process production as short - process plants resumed work and increased their operating rates. [11] - Demand: Rebar apparent consumption increased by 785,800 tons week - on - week, indicating the start of demand. [11] - Inventory: Rebar inventory continued to accumulate, but at a slower pace (from 750,800 tons last week to 184,900 tons this week). Both factory and social inventories are relatively low, and overall inventory issues are not prominent. [14] Hot - Rolled Coil - Production: This week's production was 2.9526 million tons, a decrease of 58,500 tons week - on - week for two consecutive weeks, mainly due to production restrictions during the important meeting. [16] - Inventory: Total inventory was 4.7159 million tons, a slight decrease of 1,000 tons. Factory inventory decreased by 8,000 tons, and social inventory increased by 7,000 tons. [16] - Demand: Apparent consumption was 2.9536 million tons, an increase of 137,900 tons week - on - week, almost equal to production, indicating a tight - balance market. [16] Profitability and Cost - Profitability: Currently, only blast - furnace rebar has a profit, while other varieties are at the break - even point or in the red. Electric - arc furnace steelmaking is generally unprofitable, but there is a profit during off - peak electricity hours, and off - peak electricity steelmaking is expected to increase. [18] - Cost: After the Spring Festival, rebar cost increased from 3,229 yuan/ton to 3,271 yuan/ton, providing support for the futures price. The futures price is at a discount to the spot price, but the basis does not provide trading opportunities. [18] Group 5: Iron Ore Market Analysis Production and Supply - Iron - Water Production: This week's daily iron - water production was 2.212 million tons, a decrease of 63,900 tons week - on - week due to the "Two Sessions" production restrictions, and it is expected to exceed 2.3 million tons from March to early April. [20] - Iron - Ore Shipment: Global iron - ore shipments in March decreased significantly from 3.34 million tons after the festival to 2.894 million tons, with shipments from Australia and Brazil also decreasing. [20] - Iron - Ore Arrival: Due to high previous shipments, arrivals in March increased sharply, leading to an increase in port inventories. [20] Inventory - Port Inventory: The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 17.94732 million tons, an increase of 52,490 tons week - on - week, approaching 18 million tons, which is a significant pressure on the market. [22] - Steel - Mill Inventory: Steel - mill iron - ore inventories are low, especially after the Spring Festival, lower than the same period in previous years. There is a possibility of active replenishment in the future. [22] - Inventory - Consumption Ratio: Due to the decrease in blast - furnace capacity utilization, the inventory - consumption ratio is rising, but it is expected to decline in the future. [22] Group 6: Arbitrage Strategies Inter - Period Arbitrage - The spread between the main and secondary contracts of rebar is stable at around 30 yuan/ton, that of hot - rolled coils is within 20 yuan/ton, and that of iron ore is - 20 yuan/ton. There are few good trading opportunities in steel and ore inter - period arbitrage. [24] Cross - Variety Arbitrage - Strategy 1: Go long on the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread (long hot - rolled coils and short rebar in the main contracts). Try to enter at around 140 yuan/ton. Hold existing arbitrage positions, with a stop - loss at a spread of 120 yuan/ton and a take - profit at over 200 yuan/ton. [24] - Strategy 2: The rebar - iron ore ratio has dropped below 4 and may continue to decline. Keep an eye on it for trading opportunities. [24] Group 7: Rumor Analysis - On the afternoon of March 12, there was a rumor that BHP's Newman powder would be added to the spot restriction list, with the last pick - up on March 20. The rumor is unconfirmed. [25] - If the rumor is true, in the short term, the supply of high - grade iron ore will shrink, pushing up raw - material costs. With the steel - mill restart and replenishment window, iron - ore prices may rise. In the medium term, the market trend will depend on terminal demand and iron - water production. [25] - If the rumor is true, the price difference between varieties will widen, and the near - month contract and spot may be stronger than the far - month contract. [25] - In fact, since September 2025, Sinomine Resource Group has restricted the purchase of BHP's Jimblebar and Jinbao powders. In early March 2026, international media reported an expansion of restrictions to core varieties such as Newman powder and Mac fines, and the market has already partially priced in this information. [25] Group 8: Support and Resistance Levels - Rebar main contract: Support at 3,000 yuan/ton, resistance at 3,200 yuan/ton [5] - Hot - rolled coil: Support at 3,180 yuan/ton, resistance at 3,350 yuan/ton [5] - Iron ore main contract: Support at 750 yuan/ton, resistance at 840 yuan/ton [5] Group 9: Trading Strategies - Continue to hold the long positions in steel and ore recommended in the morning report, and continuously raise the stop - loss line. [6] - Continue to hold the long position in the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread arbitrage strategy, with a stop - loss at a spread of 120 yuan/ton and a take - profit at 200 yuan/ton. [6][24] - Wait for the opportunity to go long on the rebar - iron ore ratio as the ratio has dropped below 4 and may continue to decline. [6][24]

Group 1: Overall Report Information - Report Name: Jinxin Futures Daily [1] - Date: March 11, 2026 [1] Group 2: Crude Oil Futures Analysis - Short - term Situation: Crude oil futures will maintain a high - volatility and strongly differentiated pattern, mainly driven by geopolitical expectations and policy hedging. The current volatility results from the rapid switch between the escalation and mitigation signals of the Middle East conflict. As of March 10, the intraday amplitude of the SC crude oil main contract exceeded 10% [3]. - Medium - term Variables: Three variables need attention. First, the sustainability of the geopolitical risk premium. If the Strait passage resumes, the previous premium of $8 - 10 per barrel will quickly disappear. Second, the supply - demand fundamentals. OPEC+ production cuts and the slowdown in US shale oil production form a tight balance, but global demand recovery is weak. Third, the policy implementation rhythm. US measures to stabilize oil prices and OPEC+ production adjustments will determine the volatility center [3]. - Operation Suggestions: Avoid unilateral chasing up or selling down. It is recommended to conduct range trading, with Brent focusing on the $80 - 100 per barrel range and SC crude oil on the 600 - 800 yuan per barrel range. Also, set stop - losses and avoid holding overnight positions [3]. Group 3: Stock Index Futures Analysis - Market Performance: Today, the stock index basically opened high and went high, closing strongly under the influence of the sharp rise in international oil prices and US stocks. Technically, in the 5 - minute small - cycle, it is at a high level, and it is expected to have an adjustment requirement tomorrow morning. Tomorrow morning's adjustment is a good opportunity for low - buying [6][7]. Group 4: Gold Analysis - Market Performance: The red - green line of the gold daily - level chart turns bearish. After the morning opening, it fluctuated higher and showed an overall oscillating trend. It should be treated with a short - selling mindset [10]. Group 5: Iron Ore Analysis - Supply and Demand: Australia and Brazil's shipments maintain a normal rhythm. In the medium - to long - term, it is in the mine production capacity release cycle, and there is still an expectation of loose supply. On the demand side, steel mills are resuming production after the holiday, but the start of terminal demand still takes time [12][13]. - Technical View: Recently, the commodity sentiment is high, and iron ore is running strongly. It can continue to be viewed with a bullish mindset [12]. Group 6: Glass Analysis - Supply and Demand: The daily melting change is small. In the seasonal off - season, factory inventories continue to accumulate. It is necessary to pay attention to the resumption progress of deep - processing after the holiday. In the short term, it is more affected by the overall commodity sentiment [16][17]. - Technical View: Today, it closed with a large negative line. It can still be viewed with a wide - range oscillation mindset [16]. Group 7: Methanol Analysis - Market Impact: Iran is the world's second - largest methanol producer and a major methanol exporter, significantly affecting global methanol supply. Recently, driven by Middle East geopolitical emergencies, methanol has shown continuous large fluctuations, and the domestic market will also fluctuate significantly [19]. Group 8: Pulp Analysis - Supply and Demand: Most pulp and paper plants have resumed normal production, with individual plants under maintenance. Domestic port inventories continue to accumulate, and the downstream paper mills' operating load is expected to continue to increase. Paper companies' gross profits are continuously low, and there is an expectation of price increases for cultural paper and white cardboard, which may support pulp prices [22].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Raw materials are leading the rise, and it is expected that finished products and iron ore will be bullish in the short term. Attention should be paid to the demand recovery situation. [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - On Monday, rebar, iron ore, and hot-rolled coils all closed higher, and they continued to close higher during the night session. [1] Important Information - In February 2026, the national industrial producer price index decreased by 0.9% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous month; it increased by 0.4% month-on-month, the same as the previous month. The industrial producer purchase price index decreased by 0.7% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous month; it increased by 0.7% month-on-month, with the increase expanding by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month. From January to February, the average industrial producer price index decreased by 1.2% compared to the same period last year, and the industrial producer purchase price index decreased by 1.1%. [1] - According to data released by Clarkson on March 6, in February this year, the global new ship order volume was 163 vessels with 5.21 million compensated gross tons (CGT). Calculated by CGT, it increased by 15% compared to 4.52 million CGT in the same period last year and decreased by 23% compared to 6.76 million CGT in January this year. Among them, Chinese shipyards received 131 new ship orders with 4.15 million CGT, accounting for 80% of the global market share, ranking first, and the market share reached a new high since 93.67% in August 2024; South Korean shipyards received 17 orders with 0.57 million CGT, accounting for 11% of the global market share, ranking second. [1] - During the Two Sessions in 2026, many NPC deputies and CPPCC members actively put forward suggestions on the development of the steel industry, mainly focusing on capacity control, rectifying "involutionary" competition, and supporting the development of "artificial intelligence + steel". [1] Market Logic - The prices of raw materials, coking coal and coke, soared and once hit the daily limit. [1] - Overseas iron ore supply decreased significantly again. The total global iron ore shipment volume this period decreased by 4.429 million tons to 28.978 million tons month-on-month, a decrease of 13.26%, reaching the lowest level in the same period in the past five years. Among them, the shipment volume from Australia decreased by 3.485 million tons to 17.532 million tons, and the shipment volume from Brazil decreased by more than 20% to 5.89 million tons compared to last week. The shipment volume from non-mainstream regions also decreased significantly. However, the arrival volume of foreign ore increased significantly this period. The total arrival volume at 47 ports in China increased by 4.675 million tons or 20.96% to 26.975 million tons month-on-month, approaching a one-and-a-half-month high. [1] - From March 2 to March 8, 2026, the total global iron ore shipment volume was 28.978 million tons, a decrease of 4.429 million tons month-on-month. The total shipment volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 23.421 million tons, a decrease of 3.485 million tons month-on-month. The shipment volume from Australia was 17.532 million tons, a decrease of 1.953 million tons month-on-month. Among them, the volume shipped from Australia to China was 14.659 million tons, a decrease of 1.051 million tons month-on-month. The shipment volume from Brazil was 5.89 million tons, a decrease of 1.533 million tons. The total shipment volume of iron ore from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil was 22.695 million tons, a decrease of 3.479 million tons month-on-month. The shipment volume from Australia was 16.949 million tons, a decrease of 1.848 million tons month-on-month. Among them, the volume shipped from Australia to China was 14.077 million tons, a decrease of 1.015 million tons month-on-month. The shipment volume from Brazil was 5.745 million tons, a decrease of 1.631 million tons. [1] - On Monday, the spot prices of rebar and hot-rolled coils both increased. The price of Shanghai Zhongtian rebar was 3,220 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton. The RB2605 contract broke through the previous resistance level of 3,120. [1] Trading Strategy - The support level for rebar is 3,000, and the resistance level is 3,200. The support level for hot-rolled coils is 3,180, and the resistance level is 3,300. The support level for iron ore is 730, and the resistance level is 800. [2] - For single-sided trading, continue to hold existing long positions in rebar and hot-rolled coils and set stop-losses. For arbitrage, continue to hold long hot-rolled coil and short rebar arbitrage orders. It is recommended to set a stop-loss at 110 and a take-profit at over 200. [2]