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中联重科(000157):推荐报告:工程机械、农机、矿机“三箭齐发”,业绩增速有望领跑行业
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2026-01-11 13:22
Investment Rating - The investment rating for Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science and Technology Co., Ltd. is "Buy" (maintained) [7] Core Views - Zoomlion is positioned as a leading player in the Chinese engineering machinery sector, with growth potential driven by its diversified focus on engineering machinery, agricultural machinery, and mining machinery [1] - The company is benefiting from a recovery in domestic demand, particularly in non-excavator segments, and is advancing its globalization strategy through overseas direct sales and localized production [1][11] - The company is also focusing on low-valuation humanoid robots, which are expected to contribute to future growth [1][11] Industry and Company Analysis Engineering Machinery Sector - The global engineering machinery market is projected to reach USD 213.5 billion in 2024 and USD 296.1 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 6% from 2024 to 2030 [2] - Domestic recovery in excavators is expected to drive demand for non-excavator machinery, supported by infrastructure and municipal needs [2][3] - The company has a significant market share in various segments, including nearly 50% in the 1000-ton and above crawler crane market [12][24] Agricultural Machinery - The global agricultural machinery market is expected to reach approximately RMB 1.5 trillion in 2024, with China contributing around RMB 300 billion [5] - Emerging markets and green technology are identified as key growth drivers for agricultural machinery [5][25] Mining Machinery - The global mining machinery market is projected to grow from USD 133.1 billion in 2025 to USD 229.2 billion by 2035, with a CAGR of 6% [6] - The company is focusing on green, large-scale, and intelligent mining machinery, with significant growth in sales and market penetration [13][26] Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of RMB 49 billion, 64 billion, and 81 billion from 2025 to 2027, with respective growth rates of 40%, 30%, and 26% [20] - The projected P/E ratios for 2025-2027 are 15, 12, and 9 times, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [20] Globalization and Shareholder Returns - The company plans to issue up to RMB 6 billion in H-share convertible bonds to support its globalization strategy, with 50% of the funds allocated to overseas production and technology development [14][36] - The company has a high dividend payout ratio of 74% for 2024, reflecting its commitment to shareholder returns [36]