机器之心发布 本文作者为摩尔线程天使投资人、中国初代 AI 投资人王捷。他于今年 8 月发表了《浮现中的 AI 经济》一文，对即将到来的 AI 经济进行了 展望和解读。本篇文章是他近期对当前 AI 的思考的小结。 关于 AI 经济的四十个问题 《浮现中的 AI 经济》（以下简称 "文章"）发表以来，AI 行业继续发生了众多大事，OpenAI 牵头的千亿美金 "循环交易" 引发 "AI 泡沫论" 大讨论，模型公司估值 来到数千亿美金级别，而 Gemini 3 和 GPT5.2 等新发布模型版本又持续体现了能力进步，中国模型也持续在开源领域保持全球领先。 我们看到，与 AI 相关的历史事实，正继续以 " 非 线 性、非均匀 " 的特征往前发展：Scaling Law 并未收敛，AI 行业继续呈现加速发展的特点，与 AI 相关的经济 活动规模来到了前所未有的量级；同时，历史进程呈现出 "非均匀" 的面貌，虽然人们是在同一个时空下，但是与 AI 有关的经济社会活动，和与 AI 无关的经济社 会活动，看起来不在同一个历史进程中，前者正以强大的动能迅猛往前发展，而后者维持着我们所熟悉和习惯的、传统工业经济的节奏和特点。 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the evolution of human economic activities through digitalization, highlighting the transition from manual to electronic forms of computation, which began with the invention of the computer in 1946 [2][3] - The digitalization of economic activities is seen as an inevitable process, where algorithms can drive economic activities, leading to increased efficiency and intelligence in decision-making [3][7] - The internet and mobile internet have significantly improved matching efficiency in three main areas: information, goods, and social interactions, transforming how humans engage in economic activities [8][10][11] Group 2 - The emergence of AI marks a new phase in the digitalization process, where AI can perform specific tasks and has the potential to generalize its capabilities across various applications [12][15] - By 2025, AI is expected to surpass human capabilities in general work delivery, with models like OpenAI's GPT-3 showing significant advancements in intelligence and functionality [15][18] - The AI economy is characterized by the ability of computers to participate in the entire "collect information - decision - action" chain, leading to a fully automated economic system [20][21] Group 3 - The AI economy will enable continuous operation without human intervention, significantly increasing productivity and efficiency in various sectors [21][22] - AI applications are already being developed to automate tasks in digital environments, with potential expansions into physical tasks as technology matures [22][23] - The concept of unlimited labor supply is introduced, where AI can replicate its capabilities at a low marginal cost, potentially transforming economic structures [24][26][28] Group 4 - The reduction of transaction costs is a key benefit of digitalization, as AI and digital tools streamline information flow and decision-making processes [33][35] - The article emphasizes that AI can reduce irrational decision-making in economic activities, leading to more rational and efficient outcomes [37][39] - Historical insights can be leveraged through AI's memory capabilities, allowing for better decision-making by referencing past solutions to contemporary problems [40][41]

Group 1 - The article discusses the evolution of human economic activities from manual to digital, highlighting the significance of the digital age initiated by computers and the subsequent rise of the AI economy [4][5][9] - The transition from the internet and mobile internet to AI represents a new phase where algorithms can not only match but also perform tasks, indicating a shift towards a more automated economic system [18][22] - The AI economy is characterized by the ability of AI to perform the entire "collect information-decision-action" chain, which was previously reliant on human involvement [19][24] Group 2 - The article outlines the stages of economic digitalization, emphasizing that the current phase is marked by AI's capability to generalize and deliver work, surpassing human capabilities by 2025 [22][24] - AI's role in the economic system is expected to lead to a significant increase in productivity, with estimates suggesting that AI could achieve three times the output of human labor in a day [26][28] - The emergence of a "non-scarcity economy" is anticipated, where AI's capabilities could lead to an output that exceeds human demand, fulfilling Keynes' prediction of resolving economic issues through technological advancement [39][40] Group 3 - The article highlights the reduction of transaction costs in economic activities due to digitalization, with AI further enhancing efficiency in information collection and decision-making processes [42][45] - AI's involvement in decision-making is expected to decrease irrational decisions, leading to more rational economic behaviors and improved overall efficiency [49][53] - The potential for an "all-weather automated economic system" is discussed, where AI can operate continuously, significantly increasing the volume of work completed [26][28]