机器之心发布 本文作者为摩尔线程天使投资人、中国初代 AI 投资人王捷。他于今年 8 月发表了《浮现中的 AI 经济》一文，对即将到来的 AI 经济进行了 展望和解读。本篇文章是他近期对当前 AI 的思考的小结。 关于 AI 经济的四十个问题 《浮现中的 AI 经济》（以下简称 "文章"）发表以来，AI 行业继续发生了众多大事，OpenAI 牵头的千亿美金 "循环交易" 引发 "AI 泡沫论" 大讨论，模型公司估值 来到数千亿美金级别，而 Gemini 3 和 GPT5.2 等新发布模型版本又持续体现了能力进步，中国模型也持续在开源领域保持全球领先。 我们看到，与 AI 相关的历史事实，正继续以 " 非 线 性、非均匀 " 的特征往前发展：Scaling Law 并未收敛，AI 行业继续呈现加速发展的特点，与 AI 相关的经济 活动规模来到了前所未有的量级；同时，历史进程呈现出 "非均匀" 的面貌，虽然人们是在同一个时空下，但是与 AI 有关的经济社会活动，和与 AI 无关的经济社 会活动，看起来不在同一个历史进程中，前者正以强大的动能迅猛往前发展，而后者维持着我们所熟悉和习惯的、传统工业经济的节奏和特点。 ...

--美联储主席候选人之争进入白热化阶段 夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月21日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1核心矛盾 贵金属周报 上周贵金属价格继续偏强运行，伦敦现货黄金接近10月份历史高位4380附近，伦敦现货白银则续刷历史新高 至67附近，从K线技术形态看，短期仍未出现拐头信号。周二后美联储降息预期略有回升，主要非农与CPI就 业数据补发，显示美经济下行压力与通胀缓和。另外，上周美联储主席候选人之争继续发酵，集中在哈塞 特、沃什和沃勒之间，不同候选人与特朗普政府的立场关联度依次减弱，这也就意味着对于美联储独立性的 维护能力依次增强，但总体而言，三位候选人皆属于宽货币的鸽派支持者。 11月底以来，白银表现远强于黄金，金银比进一步大幅回落。主要原因在于白银低供给弹性与低库存的现 实，叠加COMEX 2512合约大量交割、白银工业需求刚性、ETF投资需求持续流入（但上周iShares白银ETF 周度流出36.7吨）、绿色新能源与数字AI经济对白银需求的增长预期，以及美国对白银的232矿产调查结果不 确定性引发的进口关税担忧等多重因 ...

（来源：吴说） 作者：@agintender 当 BUSD 被推上历史舞台，它承载的不只是合规叙事，更是币安试图用高压手段重塑稳定币秩序的野 心——通过强制汇率、合并交易对，把竞争对手的深度直接吞进自己的账本。 2022 年的"自动转换"，是一场教科书级别的闪击战；而 2023 年情人节的监管铁拳，则让这个看似无懈 可击的帝国瞬间崩塌。双生的 BUSD 、影子般的 Binance-Peg 、监管边界的错位，共同构成了它的阿喀 琉斯之踵。 但故事并未就此结束。 从 FDUSD 到 BFUSD ，再到 United Stables （ $U ），币安并未放弃稳定币，而是在失败中进化，从霸 权式统一转向聚合式吞噬，甚至提前为 AI 经济铺路。 这是一篇关于稳定币的文章，更是一部交易所权力如何试图驯服市场、又被监管反噬的商战纪实。 第一章：热血与霸权—— BUSD 的"大一统"往事 BUSD 的故事不仅仅是合规产品的兴衰，更是一段关于交易所如何试图通过行政手段统一市场流动性 的"帝王术"。 链接：https://x.com/agintender/status/2001865496464101733 声明：本文为转载内 ...

核心观点： 12 月 10 日，美联储宣布将联邦基金利率区间下调至 3.5%~3.75%，降息 25bps，并重启短债扩表，整体表态比市场预期更偏鸽。会前，市场对此 次降息的预期已达到 90%以上，但普遍担忧这次降息是本轮最后一次。但 是，美联储会议声明和记者问答比预期更温和，市场对后续降息的信心提 振。会议声明（Statement）的增量信息不多，唯一变化在于对失业率的 描述由"截止 8 月有所上行但保持低位"变为"截至 9 月有所上行"，体 现劳动力市场弱化趋势更为显著。记者会上，鲍威尔也明确提出，自 4 月 以来非农就业平均每月增加 4 万，但其中夸大的成分或有 6 万，相当于每 月负增 2 万人，指向对就业市场下行风险的担忧。与放缓的现状相对的 是，12 月的经济预期摘要（SEP）上调了对于未来的 GDP 预期，并下调 了通胀预期和失业率预期，显示 2026 年美国经济预期边际好转，AI 经济 和财政支出的拉动预期对美国经济形成额外支撑。此外，在经济前景不确 定性较强的情况下，FOMC 委员会内部分歧继续加深，本次投票共三人反 对，其中 Miran 支持降息 50bps，Schmid 和 Goolsb ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The conference call discusses the integration of three securities firms under the Huijin system, marking a significant event in the domestic securities industry and indicating a shift towards creating globally competitive investment banks [12][2][11]. Core Points and Arguments - **Integration of Securities Firms**: The merger of the three firms sets a record for the largest single integration in China's securities industry, signaling the start of a fourth wave of mergers and acquisitions aimed at enhancing competitiveness on a global scale [12][2]. - **Market Adjustments**: The market experienced a correction after six consecutive months of gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping approximately 2% as of November 28. This adjustment is seen as a normal market behavior following a prolonged uptrend [8][9]. - **Sector Performance**: The technology sector, particularly the STAR 50 Index, has seen a significant pullback of about 17% from its October peak, indicating a broader trend of profit-taking among investors [8][9]. - **Long-term Market Outlook**: Analysts from Guotai Junan Securities express optimism about the long-term growth potential of the Chinese capital market, suggesting that the market is in a developmental cycle with significant upward potential for stock indices [9][10]. - **Policy Focus for 2026**: Attention is shifting towards the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference, which will set the economic agenda for 2026. Investors are advised to remain cautious and await clearer policy signals [10][11]. - **Investment Opportunities**: There is a recommendation to focus on traditional manufacturing and resource sectors, with particular emphasis on industries where China holds a competitive advantage, such as chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and new energy [11][12]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Consumer Spending and Economic Growth**: The government is implementing measures to enhance consumer spending, which is crucial for driving economic growth. The focus is on improving the supply-demand balance in the consumer goods market [47][51]. - **Currency Strength**: The Chinese yuan has appreciated against the US dollar, reaching a one-year high, which is attributed to a weaker dollar environment and strong performance in the domestic equity market [50]. - **Sector-Specific Growth**: The innovative pharmaceutical sector is experiencing a significant recovery, with upstream research services seeing substantial performance improvements due to better financing conditions and recovering industrial demand [17]. - **Agricultural Modernization**: The Dayaogu Group is positioning itself as a leader in agricultural modernization, leveraging technology to enhance productivity and quality in the food supply chain [6]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, highlighting the strategic movements within the securities industry, market trends, and broader economic indicators that could influence investment decisions.

Group 1: Copper Foil Product Development - The company has made significant advancements in copper foil technology, including nickel-plated copper foil and ultra-high tensile copper foil, which have received positive feedback from top-tier battery manufacturers [1][2] - The Indonesian factory is the first overseas copper foil plant in China, currently collaborating with 5 out of the top 10 global power battery clients and 2 out of the top 3 3C digital clients, with supply agreements starting in 2026 [2] Group 2: U.S. Market Situation - The Texas base is experiencing steady growth, with processing fees for copper products increasing due to tariff policies, varying by product and customer demand [2] - The company plans to accelerate capacity ramp-up to meet local market demands and focus on high-value product production lines [2] Group 3: Thermal Management Product Layout - Copper is a crucial material in the thermal management sector, with the company leveraging over 30 years of copper processing experience to upgrade technology and ensure stable supply [3] - The demand for copper-based materials is surging due to the explosion of AI and computing power, particularly in data centers, leading to increased business from top thermal management companies [3]

Economic Overview - In Q2 2025, the US real GDP recorded a high growth rate of 3.8% quarter-on-quarter, with Q3 expectations reaching 4%[6] - The divergence in opinions regarding the US economic outlook is increasing, with recession risks becoming more pronounced[10] Employment and Consumption Dynamics - The US job market is showing signs of accelerated decline, with August non-farm payrolls adding only 22,000 jobs, indicating a near-recession performance[11] - Despite the deteriorating job market, personal consumption expenditures contributed 1.7% to Q2 GDP, with a year-on-year growth of 2.74% in August[19][24] Income and Wealth Effects - Nominal disposable income growth for US residents remains stable at around 4.6%, supported by a 5% increase in wage income and an 8.5% rise in government transfer payments[28][31] - The wealth effect from rising stock prices has led to a historical high in household net worth, reaching $197 trillion in Q2 2025, with a ratio of net worth to disposable income at 782%[35][40] Structural Consumption Resilience - High-income households are primarily driving consumption resilience, with their spending growth significantly outpacing that of low-income households, which saw a cumulative increase of only 7.9% compared to 16.7% for high-income households since 2018[62][65] - The concentration of wealth among high-income groups is evident, with the top 1% holding nearly 50% of their assets in stocks and mutual funds, while low-income households are more reliant on real estate[45][48] Future Outlook and Risks - The sustainability of consumption resilience is contingent on the continuation of the technology cycle and its impact on income and wealth effects[69] - Risks include potential job losses in large enterprises, which could exacerbate the decline in consumer spending if high-income job losses occur[77][81]

Core Insights - Neon-Money Talks is a voice chat app that gained rapid popularity in 2025, claiming users can earn money by making calls, with potential earnings of up to $30 per day [1][3] - The app's business model involves selling users' voice data to AI companies for training purposes, raising significant privacy concerns [1][8] - Following a TechCrunch report highlighting security vulnerabilities, the app was taken down for a "comprehensive security audit" shortly after its launch [1][17] Group 1: Business Model and Growth - Neon offers users $0.45 per minute for calls with other Neon users, and $0.15 per minute for calls to regular phone numbers, incentivizing usage [3][6] - The app achieved a peak download rate of 81,000 in a single day, climbing to the 5th position in the App Store overall rankings [1][6] - Users can earn significant amounts, with potential monthly earnings exceeding 6,000 RMB if they consistently use the app [6][9] Group 2: Privacy and Security Concerns - Users unknowingly consent to the permanent sale of their voice data, which can be modified and resold by Neon [8][9] - The app has received a low rating of 2.6/5 on the App Store, with many users reporting difficulties in withdrawing their earnings [11][12] - TechCrunch's investigation revealed that the app does not adequately protect user data, allowing access to personal information and recordings [17][18] Group 3: Market Trends and Implications - The trend of monetizing personal data in the AI economy raises ethical questions about privacy and individual rights [21][29] - The market for AI training data is projected to grow significantly, with the digital human market expected to reach $519.4 billion by 2025 [27][29] - Companies like Synthesia and HeyGen are already generating substantial revenue by acquiring and utilizing human data for AI applications [28][29]

Group 1 - The article discusses the evolution of human economic activities through digitalization, highlighting the transition from manual to electronic forms of computation, which began with the invention of the computer in 1946 [2][3] - The digitalization of economic activities is seen as an inevitable process, where algorithms can drive economic activities, leading to increased efficiency and intelligence in decision-making [3][7] - The internet and mobile internet have significantly improved matching efficiency in three main areas: information, goods, and social interactions, transforming how humans engage in economic activities [8][10][11] Group 2 - The emergence of AI marks a new phase in the digitalization process, where AI can perform specific tasks and has the potential to generalize its capabilities across various applications [12][15] - By 2025, AI is expected to surpass human capabilities in general work delivery, with models like OpenAI's GPT-3 showing significant advancements in intelligence and functionality [15][18] - The AI economy is characterized by the ability of computers to participate in the entire "collect information - decision - action" chain, leading to a fully automated economic system [20][21] Group 3 - The AI economy will enable continuous operation without human intervention, significantly increasing productivity and efficiency in various sectors [21][22] - AI applications are already being developed to automate tasks in digital environments, with potential expansions into physical tasks as technology matures [22][23] - The concept of unlimited labor supply is introduced, where AI can replicate its capabilities at a low marginal cost, potentially transforming economic structures [24][26][28] Group 4 - The reduction of transaction costs is a key benefit of digitalization, as AI and digital tools streamline information flow and decision-making processes [33][35] - The article emphasizes that AI can reduce irrational decision-making in economic activities, leading to more rational and efficient outcomes [37][39] - Historical insights can be leveraged through AI's memory capabilities, allowing for better decision-making by referencing past solutions to contemporary problems [40][41]

Group 1 - U.S. stocks showed mixed performance, with the Dow Jones index declining over 100 points on Monday [1] - PROS Holdings, Inc. shares surged 40% to $22.97 following the announcement of its acquisition by Thoma Bravo [1] - MBX Biosciences, Inc. saw a significant increase of 144% to $24.40 after its once-weekly Canvuparatide met primary endpoints in a Phase 2 trial [3] - Metsera, Inc. gained 62.8% to $54.25 amid reports of a near acquisition deal with Pfizer [3] - Anywhere Real Estate Inc. experienced a 57% rise to $11.13 due to a combination announcement with Compass in an all-stock transaction [3] - The ODP Corporation's shares increased by 33.6% to $27.82 after announcing a definitive agreement to be acquired by an affiliate of Atlas Holdings [3] - Banco BBVA Argentina S.A. shares rose 17.7% to $9.64 following U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent's statement of support for Argentina [3] - Grupo Supervielle S.A. also saw a 16% increase to $5.83 under similar circumstances regarding U.S. support for Argentina [3] - Lumen Technologies, Inc. rose 12.5% to $6.43 after announcing significant progress in building infrastructure for the AI economy [3] - IREN Limited gained 10.7% to $42.88 after doubling its AI Cloud capacity to 23,000 GPUs [3]