Group 1 - The Trump administration announced a comprehensive tariff plan, imposing a 10% "baseline tariff" on all countries starting April 5, with an additional 34% tariff on China from April 9, leading to significant volatility in global capital markets [1] - Northeast Securities' chief economist, Fu Peng, indicated that the tariff increases exceeded expectations and highlighted that the tariffs would not be implemented immediately, allowing time for potential negotiations with the U.S. [1] - The prediction is that if tariffs are implemented as scheduled, the probability of a recession in the U.S. will significantly increase, with a potential shift to stagflation and depression, particularly impacting large U.S. companies with significant foreign exposure [1] Group 2 - For China, the implementation of tariffs would limit negotiation options with the U.S. and encourage stronger ties with Europe and Southeast Asia, leading to pressure on exports and economic growth [2] - The Chinese government is expected to reopen fiscal and monetary tools to support domestic demand, with a higher likelihood of interest rate adjustments by the central bank [2] - The bond market in China may enter a bull market, while the reliance of outward-oriented enterprises on the U.S. could lead to market adjustments, shifting from a "dumbbell" trading strategy to a "hammer" trading strategy [2]