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9-10月可能是专项债发行关键窗口
Xinda Securities· 2025-09-05 08:15
1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating, so this part is skipped. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The front - loaded issuance of special refinancing bonds this year was significant. Although the issuance of new special bonds has accelerated, it is not led by project - based bonds. Instead, the issuance progress of debt - resolution bonds leads that of project - based bonds [1]. - Combining the current progress and historical rules, September and October may be the main nodes for the issuance of the remaining new special bonds, and the remaining issuance space is likely to be mainly for project - based bonds [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Debt - resolution Bonds' Issuance Progress Still Leads that of Project - based Bonds - As of August this year, local government bonds totaling 7.7 trillion yuan were issued, including 1.8 trillion yuan of general bonds (1.2 trillion yuan of refinancing general bonds + 0.6 trillion yuan of new general bonds) and 5.9 trillion yuan of special bonds (2.6 trillion yuan of refinancing special bonds + 3.3 trillion yuan of new special bonds). The issuance progress of both new general bonds and new special bonds was 75% [5][6]. - The issuance progress of special refinancing bonds reached 97%, almost completed, with only about 0.1 trillion yuan of issuance space remaining. Special new special bonds showed "over - issuance", possibly related to using some new special bonds to pay off enterprise arrears [8][9][10]. - By the end of August, only 8 regions had not completed the issuance of special refinancing bond quotas, and among the 12 key debt - resolution regions, only Guizhou and Liaoning had not used up their debt - resolution quotas [13]. 3.2 Special Bond Funds Mainly Flow into Three Major Areas - From January to August this year, new special bonds for project returns mainly flowed into three major areas: about 28% went to municipal and industrial park infrastructure, about 18% to transportation infrastructure, and about 14% to land reserves. These three areas accounted for a total of 60%. The top five categories accounted for 83% of the total [16]. - Compared with last year, the proportion of funds flowing into land reserves and affordable housing projects increased. The scale of land reserve special bonds exceeded 30 billion yuan this year, and the proportion of funds flowing into affordable housing projects exceeded that of social undertakings, mainly concentrated in shantytown renovation [17]. 3.3 September and October May Be the Main Nodes for the Issuance of the Remaining New Special Bonds - Although new special bonds reached a new monthly high in July, it was the special new special bonds related to debt resolution that increased in scale, while the monthly issuance scale of project - based ordinary new special bonds was relatively uniform [19]. - The issuance progress of special refinancing bonds and special new special bonds accelerated alternately. The acceleration of special new special bonds was not limited to key debt - resolution regions. Beijing, Guangdong, Shanghai, and Shenzhen issued special new special bonds for the first time this year [20][24]. - The proportion of ordinary new special bonds in key regions was only 33.6% on average, while that in non - key regions reached 74.9%, indicating that debt resolution in key regions squeezed project - based bonds. There is still 1.1 trillion yuan of issuance space for new special bonds, and based on the plans of 21 regions, the issuance scale in September may exceed 300 billion yuan. Considering historical rules, September and October may be the main nodes for the issuance of the remaining new special bonds [26].