截至11/23, 新增地方债发行进度为95.3% 2025 近2年均值 中信期货有限公司 CITIC Futures Company Limited 政府债发行追踪―2025年第47周 研究员: 程小庆 从业资格号 F3083989 投资咨询号 Z0018635 报告日期: 2025年11月24日 近2年均值 2025 800 600 400 200 0 -50 第1周 第5周 第9周 第13周 第17周 第21周 第25周 第29周 第33周 第37周 第41周 第45周 第49周 第53周 1.5 r 0.5 -0.5 第1周 第4周 第12周 第16周 第20周 第24周 第24周 第28周 第31周 第35周 第39周 第43周 第47周 第51周 本周地方债净融资规模为1263亿，环比减少1164亿 下周计划净融资3041亿 · 2025 - 2024 - 2023 2022 - 2021 6000 - 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 I II I 0 H -500 第1周 第5周 第9周 第13周 第17周 第21周 第25周 第29周 第33周 第37周 第41周 第45周 第 ...

2025 年 11 月 23 日 减国债利差皆收窄，下周发行明显 提速 ——地方债周度跟踪 20251121 相关研究 《新增债发行提速，减国债利差表 现分化——地方债周度跟踪 20251114》 2025/11/16 《7Y 以上地方债减国债利差收窄， 下周发行明显提速——地方债周度 跟踪 20251107》 2025/11/10 《下周发行降速，关注中长端地方 债性价比——地方债周度跟踪 20251031》 2025/11/02 《新增债发行提速，偿还存量债务 特殊再融资债再发行——地方债周 度跟踪 20251024》 2025/10/26 《5000 亿元结存限额下达，四季度 地方债发行或继续放量——地方债 周度跟踪 20251017》 2025/10/19 《地方债，正当时》 2025/04/09 证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 杨雪芳 A0230524120003 yangxf@swsresearch.com 联系人 杨雪芳 A0230524120003 yangxf@swsresearch.com 债 券 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 ...

2025 年 11 月 16 日 新增债发行提速，减国债利差表现 分化 ——地方债周度跟踪 20251114 相关研究 《7Y 以上地方债减国债利差收窄， 下周发行明显提速——地方债周度 跟踪 20251107》 2025/11/10 《下周发行降速，关注中长端地方 债性价比——地方债周度跟踪 20251031》 2025/11/02 《新增债发行提速，偿还存量债务 特殊再融资债再发行——地方债周 度跟踪 20251024》 2025/10/26 《5000 亿元结存限额下达，四季度 地方债发行或继续放量——地方债 周度跟踪 20251017》 2025/10/19 《发行持续放缓，减国债利差表现 分化——地方债周度跟踪 20251010 》 2025/10/12 《地方债，正当时》 2025/04/09 证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 杨雪芳 A0230524120003 yangxf@swsresearch.com 联系人 债券周评 目录 杨雪芳 A0230524120003 yangxf@swsresearch.com 债 券 研 究 证 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report tracks the supply and trading of local government bonds, analyzing the issuance rhythm, pricing, and trading characteristics in the primary and secondary markets [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Primary Supply Rhythm - Last week (November 3 - 7, 2025), local government bonds issued a total of 91.61 billion yuan, including 45.21 billion yuan of new special bonds and 12.73 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds. "Ordinary/Project Revenue" is the main investment area for special bond funds [3][10] - As of now in November, special refinancing bonds have issued approximately 69.3 billion yuan, accounting for 15.1% of the monthly local bond issuance scale [3][10] - In terms of issuance pricing, the downward range of the 10 - year local bond issuance rate is greater than that of the 20 - year and 30 - year varieties. The 10 - year local bond issuance rate has dropped by up to 6BP, and its spread with the same - maturity treasury bond has narrowed to 13.6BP, while the average issuance spreads of the 20 - year and 30 - year varieties have slightly widened compared to the previous week [3][16] - In November, Hubei, Yunnan, and Fujian are the main regions for local bond issuance. The issuance scale of local bonds over 20 years in Hubei reaches 9.25 billion yuan, and the average interest rate of Hubei's local government bonds with over 10 - year varieties accounting for nearly 90% reaches 2.31% [3][18] 3.2 Secondary Trading Characteristics - Last week (November 3 - 7, 2025), 7 - 10 - year local government bonds slightly outperformed the same - maturity treasury bonds and credit bonds, but the recent cumulative increase was weak. The 7 - 10 - year and over 10 - year local bond indices increased by 0.09% and decreased by 0.03% respectively. The 7 - 10 - year variety's increase exceeded that of the same - maturity treasury bonds and credit bonds, while the over 10 - year variety was inferior to high - grade credit bonds, and the cumulative return was significantly lower than that of the same - maturity treasury bonds and credit bonds [4][21] - In terms of provinces, government bonds in Guangdong, Jiangxi and other places were relatively actively traded, while the trading maturity of each province was still below the level in mid - early October. In terms of trading returns, the average returns of local government bonds in each region are mostly between 1.9% and 2.25%, and the number of trading transactions in provinces with excess returns such as Hebei and Guizhou has decreased [4][23]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The issuance and net financing of local government bonds decreased on a sequential basis this period, and are expected to increase significantly on a sequential basis next period. The weighted issuance term of local government bonds lengthened. The spreads between 10Y and 30Y local government bonds and treasury bonds narrowed, and the weekly turnover rate increased on a sequential basis. The current spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds still has certain value for investment [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Current Situation of Local Government Bond Issuance - This period (from November 3, 2025, to November 9, 2025), the total issuance/net financing of local government bonds was 9.1607 billion yuan/-3.3641 billion yuan (compared to 27.0682 billion yuan/17.5677 billion yuan in the previous period). It is expected that the issuance/net financing next period (from November 10, 2025, to November 16, 2025) will be 28.5067 billion yuan/24.2792 billion yuan. The weighted issuance term of local government bonds this period was 14.57 years, longer than 13.72 years in the previous period [2][6]. - As of November 7, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds/new special bonds accounted for 86.2% and 90.5% of the annual quota respectively. Considering the expected issuance next period, it will be 87.8% and 93.7%. The cumulative issuance progress in 2024 was 88.6%/97.0% and 88.9%/97.2%, and in 2023 was 91.5%/94.4% and 91.6%/94.4% [2][15]. - As of November 7, 2025, 29 regions have disclosed that the planned issuance scale of local government bonds from November to December 2025 is 71.33 billion yuan (70.16 billion yuan and 1.17 billion yuan in November and December respectively), including 34.75 billion yuan of new special bonds (34.39 billion yuan and 0.36 billion yuan in November and December respectively). The issuance in the same period last year in the same regions was 189.76 billion yuan and 7.18 billion yuan, and the national issuance in the same period last year was 240.54 billion yuan and 10.68 billion yuan [2]. - This period, the issuance of special new special bonds was 100 million yuan, and the issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts and repaying existing debts was 0 yuan and 570 million yuan respectively. As of November 7, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special new special bonds was 125.18 billion yuan (100 million yuan issued this period); the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts was 199.34 billion yuan (0 yuan issued this period), with an issuance progress of 99.7%, and 32 regions such as Zhejiang have completed the issuance (no new regions this period); since October 2025, the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for repaying existing debts (possibly from the 500 - billion - yuan unused quota mentioned in the press conference of the Ministry of Finance on October 17) was 5.07 billion yuan (570 million yuan issued this period) [2]. 3.2 Spreads and Turnover Rate - As of November 7, 2025, the spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds and treasury bonds were 20.58BP and 20.19BP respectively, narrowing by 2.88BP and 3.50BP compared to October 31, 2025 (23.46BP and 23.69BP on October 31, 2025), and were at the 58.70% and 77.70% historical quantiles since 2023 respectively [2]. - The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds this period was 0.87%, increasing on a sequential basis compared to 0.70% in the previous period. The yields and liquidity of 7 - 10Y local government bonds in regions such as Yunnan, Guizhou, and Qingdao were better than the national average this period [2]. - Taking the 10 - year local government bond as an observation anchor, since 2018, the upper limit of the spread adjustment may be about 20 - 25BP higher than the lower limit of the issuance spread, and the lower limit may be around the lower limit of the issuance spread. Currently, the upper limit of the spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds may be around 30 - 35BP, and the lower limit may be around 5 - 10BP [2].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View - The report tracks the issuance of government bonds in the 45th week of 2025, presenting the issuance progress, weekly issuance, and planned issuance of various types of bonds, including new special bonds, new general bonds, new local bonds, and treasury bonds, as well as the net financing scale of local bonds and treasury bonds [2][4][6]. 3. Summary by Bond Type New Special Bonds - As of November 9, the issuance progress of new special bonds was 91.1%. This week, 45.2 billion yuan of new special bonds were issued, a decrease of 109.7 billion yuan from the previous week. Next week, 139.4 billion yuan is planned to be issued. As of November 9, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds in November was 45.2 billion yuan [4][5]. New General Bonds - As of November 9, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 86.3%. This week, 0 yuan of new general bonds were issued, a decrease of 1.7 billion yuan from the previous week. Next week, 1.25 billion yuan is planned to be issued. As of November 9, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds in January was 0 yuan [5][6]. New Local Bonds - As of November 9, the issuance progress of new local bonds was 90.4% [9]. Treasury Bonds - This week, the net financing scale of treasury bonds was 225.8 billion yuan, an increase of 225.8 billion yuan from the previous week. Next week, the planned net financing is 22 billion yuan. As of November 9, the net financing progress of treasury bonds was 87.4% [12]. Local Bonds - This week, the net financing scale of local bonds was -33.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 209.3 billion yuan from the previous week. Next week, the planned net financing is 242.8 billion yuan [18].

Report Summary Report Title - Government Bond Issuance Tracking - Week 44, 2025 [2] Report Date - November 3, 2025 [3] Key Points 1. New Special Bond Issuance - As of November 2, the issuance progress of new special bonds was 90.1%. This week, 154.9 billion yuan of new special bonds were issued, a week - on - week increase of 42.5 billion yuan. Next week, 45.2 billion yuan is planned to be issued [4] 2. New General Bond Issuance - As of November 2, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 86.3%. This week, 17 billion yuan of new general bonds were issued, a week - on - week increase of 15.7 billion yuan. Next week, the planned issuance is 0 billion yuan [6] 3. Local Bond Net Financing - This week, the net financing scale of local bonds was 175.7 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 9.9 billion yuan. Next week, the planned net financing scale is - 36 billion yuan. As of November 2, the issuance progress of new local bonds was 89.5% [9] 4. Treasury Bond Net Financing - This week, the net financing scale of treasury bonds was 0 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 23.6 billion yuan. Next week, the planned net financing scale is 150.4 billion yuan. As of November 2, the net financing progress of treasury bonds was 84.0% [12][19] 5. Government Bond Net Financing - This week, the net financing of government bonds was 175.7 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 13.6 billion yuan. Next week, the planned net financing scale is 114.5 billion yuan. As of November 2, the progress of treasury bond net financing plus new local bond issuance was 86.4% [15] 6. October Cumulative Issuance - As of October 31, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds in October was 287.4 billion yuan, and the cumulative issuance of new general bonds in October was 18.3 billion yuan [5]

Core Insights - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) announced a total allocation of 500 billion yuan to enhance local government financial capacity and expand effective investment, with 200 billion yuan specifically designated for special bonds to support investment projects in certain provinces [3] - As of now, the 500 billion yuan has been fully deployed, supporting over 2,300 projects with a total investment of approximately 7 trillion yuan, focusing on sectors such as digital economy, artificial intelligence, and urban infrastructure [3][4] - The issuance of special bonds is expected to accelerate infrastructure investment growth to 8% to 9% in the second half of the year, as indicated by experts [4] Group 1 - The NDRC, in collaboration with various financial institutions, is expediting the deployment of new policy financial tools to support significant investment projects [3] - The first three quarters of the year showed resilience in the economy, with industrial profits increasing by 3.2% year-on-year, and prices of key products like polysilicon and lithium carbonate rising significantly [4] - The issuance of special bonds has shown a clear upward trend, with 9,602 million yuan issued in Q1, 12,004 million yuan in Q2, and 15,006 million yuan in Q3, indicating a growing commitment to infrastructure funding [4] Group 2 - The NDRC plans to work with relevant departments to ensure that local governments and central enterprises expedite project commencement to generate more tangible work volume and promote high-quality development [3] - The government aims to leverage special bonds and long-term treasury bonds to enhance fiscal and financial coordination, encouraging private investment and supporting public services [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide information on the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - This period's local bond issuance and net financing have both increased significantly compared to the previous period, and the next period is expected to see a slight sequential increase. The weighted issuance term has also lengthened. Currently, the issuance progress of new bonds is slow, with the cumulative issuance progress lower than that of the same period in 2023 and 2024. The planned issuance scale of local bonds from October to November 2025 is large, and the special new special - purpose bonds and special refinancing bonds for repaying existing debts have been issued. The spreads between 10Y and 30Y local bonds and treasury bonds have widened, and the weekly turnover rate has increased. The cost - effectiveness of exploring the spread between local bonds and treasury bonds has improved [2]. Summary According to the Directory 1. This period's local bond issuance volume has increased, and the weighted issuance term has lengthened - This period (2025.10.20 - 2025.10.26) local bonds were issued a total of 2472.28 billion yuan (323.01 billion yuan in the previous period), and the next period (2025.10.27 - 2025.11.2) is expected to issue 2706.82 billion yuan. The weighted issuance term of local bonds this period is 16.32 years, longer than 16.21 years in the previous period [2][9]. - As of October 24, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds and new special - purpose bonds accounted for 84.1% and 86.0% of the annual quota respectively. Considering the expected issuance in the next period, it will be 86.2% and 89.5%. The cumulative issuance progress in 2024 was 87.6%/94.6% and 88.4%/97.0%, and in 2023 it was 90.1%/89.0% and 91.2%/92.5% [2][18]. - As of October 24, 2025, 31 regions have disclosed a total planned issuance scale of local bonds of 1271.6 billion yuan from October to November 2025 (546 billion yuan in October and 725.6 billion yuan in November), including 742 billion yuan of new special - purpose bonds (361.1 billion yuan in October and 380.9 billion yuan in November) [2][24]. - This period, 32 billion yuan of special new special - purpose bonds were issued, 0 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts, and 21.4 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds for repaying existing debts. As of October 24, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special new special - purpose bonds was 1238 billion yuan; the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts was 1992.4 billion yuan, with an issuance progress of 99.6%, and 32 regions such as Zhejiang have completed issuance. Since October 2025, the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for repaying existing debts has been 21.4 billion yuan [2]. 2. This period, the spreads between 10Y and 30Y local bonds and treasury bonds have widened, and the weekly turnover rate has increased sequentially - As of October 24, 2025, the spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local bonds and treasury bonds were 21.14BP and 19.74BP respectively, widening by 0.60BP and 1.76BP compared to October 17, 2025, and were at the 61.00% and 77.10% historical quantiles since 2023 respectively [2]. - This period's local bond weekly turnover rate was 0.63%, a sequential increase from 0.56% in the previous period. The yields and liquidity of 7 - 10Y local bonds in regions such as Guizhou, Tianjin, and Ningxia were better than the national average [2]. - Taking the 10 - year local bond as the observation anchor, since 2018, the top of the spread adjustment may be about 20 - 25BP higher than the lower limit of the issuance spread, and the bottom may be near the lower limit of the issuance spread. Currently, the top of the spread between local bonds and treasury bonds may be around 30 - 35BP, and the bottom may be around 5 - 10BP [2].

Report Information - Report Title: 500 billion yuan of carry - over quota issued, local bond issuance may continue to soar in Q4 - Local Bond Weekly Tracking 20251017 [1] - Report Date: October 19, 2025 - Analysts: Huang Weiping, Yang Xuefang [1] 1. Investment Rating of the Reported Industry No investment rating information for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The central government has allocated 500 billion yuan of carry - over quota to local governments, and local bond issuance may continue to increase in the fourth quarter. Compared with last year, this allocation has increased in scale and expanded in scope. The 500 billion yuan may be issued through both new special bonds and special refinancing bonds, and policy support will drive the growth of local bond issuance in Q4 [2]. - The current issuance progress of new bonds is slow, with the cumulative issuance progress lower than that of 2023 and 2024. The planned issuance scale of local bonds in October - November 2025 is 923.4 billion yuan, with 507.3 billion yuan for new special bonds [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 This Period's Local Bond Issuance Declined and the Weighted Issuance Term Lengthened - This period (October 13 - 19, 2025) local bonds totaled 32.301 billion yuan in issuance and - 19.781 billion yuan in net financing (last period was 82.528 billion yuan/39.784 billion yuan), and the next period (October 20 - 26, 2025) is expected to issue 247.228 billion yuan and have a net financing of 165.751 billion yuan [2][6]. - The weighted issuance term of local bonds this period was 16.21 years, longer than 12.93 years in the previous period (September 29 - October 12, 2025) [2][6][8]. - As of October 17, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds/new special bonds accounted for 83.9% and 83.4% of the annual quota respectively. Considering the expected issuance in the next period, it will be 84.1% and 86.0%. This progress is lower than that of 2023 and 2024 [2][10][12]. - As of October 17, 2025, 28 regions have disclosed a planned issuance scale of 923.4 billion yuan for local bonds in October - November 2025 (542.3 billion yuan in October and 381.1 billion yuan in November), including 507.3 billion yuan for new special bonds (366.3 billion yuan in October and 141 billion yuan in November) [2][17][18]. - As of October 17, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special new special bonds was 1206 billion yuan (3.1 billion yuan issued this period); the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts was 1992.4 billion yuan (6.2 billion yuan issued this period), with an issuance progress of 99.6%. 32 regions including Zhejiang have completed issuance, and Hubei was added this period [2]. 3.2 This Period's 10 - year Local Bond - Treasury Spread Narrowed, 30 - year Spread Widened, and the Weekly Turnover Rate Rose - As of October 17, 2025, the 10 - year and 30 - year local bond - treasury spreads were 20.54BP and 17.98BP respectively, narrowing by 4.40BP and widening by 0.26BP compared to October 11, 2025, and were at the 58.80% and 70.20% historical quantiles since 2023 [2][22][24]. - This period's local bond weekly turnover rate was 0.56%, up from 0.35% in the previous period [2][30]. - This period, the 7 - 10 - year local bond yields and liquidity in regions such as Dalian, Qinghai, and Ningxia were better than the national average [2].