2026年03月02日 下周发行环比小幅上升至 2725 亿 7 A 5 -地方债周度跟踪 20260227 日一十分 《2 月实际发行或超 1 万亿元: 地方债周度跟踪 20260214》 2026/02/23 《2 月实际发行或明显大于发行计 -地方债周度跟踪 2026/02/08 20260206 % 《下周置换隐债地方债发行提速， 月或集中在首周发行- 度跟踪 20260130》 -地方债周 2026/02/01 《下周地方债供给明显放量 -110 方债周度跟踪 20260123 》 2026/01/25 《地方债发行或在 1 月下旬提速一 -地方债周度跟踪 20260116》 2026/01/18 《地方债，正当时》 2025/04/09 证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 杨雪芳 A0230524120003 yangxf@swsresearch.com 联系人 杨雪芳 A0230524120003 yangxf@swsresearch.com 本期地方债发行与净融资皆环比下降,预计下期地方债发行和净融资将环比上升。本期 (2026.2 ...

钛媒体App 2月27日消息，近期，包括国债和地方政府发行的新增专项债在内的政府债券发行提速。 Wind和企业预警通数据显示，2026年已发行的国债和新增专项债总规模同比分别提升12%和60%。专家 认为，2026年一季度政府债券发行节奏提前，体现财政前置发力的趋势，有利于实现稳增长、稳投资、 稳预期的政策目标。为更好发挥国债定价功能，应完善国债期限结构，优化国债买卖机制，发挥好调节 货币供应量的作用。 (中证报) ...

● 本报记者 熊彦莎 近期，包括国债和地方政府发行的新增专项债在内的政府债券发行提速。Wind和企业预警通数据显 示，2026年已发行的国债和新增专项债总规模同比分别提升12%和60%。 专家认为，2026年一季度政府债券发行节奏提前，体现财政前置发力的趋势，有利于实现稳增长、稳投 资、稳预期的政策目标。为更好发挥国债定价功能，应完善国债期限结构，优化国债买卖机制，发挥好 调节货币供应量的作用。 发行节奏前置 2月24日为节后首个工作日，财政部当日发行10年期和3年期记账式附息国债，面值总额分别为1350亿元 和1300亿元。2月25日，财政部发行1200亿元的5年期记账式附息国债和400亿元的记账式贴现国债。 开年国债发行靠前发力。Wind数据显示，截至2月26日，2026年已发行的国债总规模达到22390亿元， 较2025年同期的19960.6亿元提升12%。 "近期国债发行量拉升，体现出财政前置发力，以更好稳增长。实现一季度经济平稳开局，需加快形成 实物工作量。同时，要满足到期规模较高带来的再融资需求，并为后续的特别国债发行腾挪空间。"西 南财经大学财政税务学院教授刘蓉告诉中国证券报记者。 此外，对于超 ...

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report The report tracks the supply and trading of local government bonds, covering the issuance rhythm, pricing, regional differences in the primary market, and trading characteristics in the secondary market. It shows that the issuance and trading of local government bonds have certain regional characteristics, and their performance in the secondary market lags behind that of treasury bonds and high - grade credit bonds [3][4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Primary Supply Rhythm - During the week before the festival (2026.2.9 - 2026.2.13), local government bonds issued a total of 322.136 billion yuan, including 195.074 billion yuan of new special bonds and 44.645 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds. The main investment areas of special bond funds are "ordinary/project income" and "replacing implicit debts". As of now, about 429.07 billion yuan of special refinancing special bonds have been issued in February, accounting for 37.05% of the local bond issuance scale in that month [3][10]. - In terms of issuance pricing, the issuance rates of 10 - year, 20 - year, and 30 - year local bonds decreased by 0.8BP, 2.2BP, and 2.8BP respectively. The spread between new bonds and treasury bonds of the same term was slightly compressed, with a decline of less than 1bp, but the spread of the 30 - year variety was still similar to the reading in mid - January [3][17]. - Regionally, Hebei and Jiangxi were the main regions for local bond issuance in February. Among the regions with large issuance scales, the proportion of local bonds with a term of over 10 years issued in Henan and Zhejiang exceeded 80%, and the average coupon rates of the two regions were above 2.3%. In particular, the issuance rate of local bonds in Henan reached 2.4% [3][19]. 3.2 Secondary Trading Characteristics - The increase of local bonds was less than that of treasury bonds of the same term. During the week before the festival, the indices of 7 - 10 - year and over 10 - year local bonds rose by 0.13% and 0.16% respectively. With the entry of funds holding bonds for the festival, treasury bonds with stronger liquidity were easier to obtain, and long - term credit bonds were also favored by some institutions due to their absolute returns. Local bonds failed to outperform treasury bonds of the same term and high - grade credit bonds [4][23]. - In terms of different provinces, government bonds in Jiangsu and Guangdong were actively traded, and the trading volumes in Jiangsu, Jiangxi, and Henan increased by more than 40 transactions compared with the previous period. In addition, in regions where the average yield was above 2.25%, the trading terms were mostly extended to over 20 years. Notably, the average trading yields of local bonds in Henan and Guangxi reached 2.27% and 2.35% respectively, with average terms of 19.9 years and 18.8 years [4][23].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core View - The report tracks the supply and trading of local government bonds, including the issuance rhythm, pricing, and secondary - market trading characteristics in the week from February 2nd to February 6th, 2026 [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Primary Supply Rhythm - Last week, local government bonds issued a total of 579.7 billion yuan, including 134.3 billion yuan of new special bonds and 325.6 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds. "Replacing implicit debts" and "ordinary/project income" are the main investment areas of special bond funds. As of now, the issuance of special refinancing special bonds in February has reached 363.7 billion yuan, accounting for 40.3% of the monthly local bond issuance scale [2][9] - The average issuance interest rates of 10 - year, 20 - year, and 30 - year local bonds have all increased marginally. The spreads between the issuance interest rates of 30 - year, 20 - year, and 10 - year local bonds and the same - term treasury bonds have widened to 21.1BP, 20.9BP, and 16.7BP respectively [2][16] - In February, Jiangxi, Guangdong, Henan and other provinces are the main regions for local bond issuance. Jiangxi issued 69.1 billion yuan of 7 - 10 - year local bonds. The average coupon rates of local government bonds in Tibet and Tianjin are relatively high, both above 2.45% [2][19] 2. Secondary Trading Characteristics - Last week, the 7 - 10 - year and over - 10 - year local bond indexes decreased by 0.06% and increased by 0.02% respectively compared with the previous week, performing worse than the same - term treasury bonds [3][21] - The trading activity of government bonds in Guangdong, Fujian, and Hubei has increased, with the weekly trading volume increasing by 71, 29, and 22 transactions respectively. The trading volume of local bonds in Sichuan has decreased significantly [3][21] - The average trading term of Guangxi government bonds has been significantly extended, from the previous week's level to 12.7 years, a 10.5 - year increase. The average trading term of Shandong government bonds is relatively the longest, at 27.0 years. The average trading yields of Shandong and Zhejiang government bonds are both above 2.3% [3][21]

Report Summary Report Title - Government Bond Issuance Tracking [2] Report Date - February 9, 2026 [3] Researcher Information - Cheng Xiaoqing, Qualification No. F3083989, Investment Consultation No. Z0018635 [3] - Gan Mang, Qualification No. F03124127, Investment Consultation No. Z0023461 [3] Key Data Points General Bond - As of February 8, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds in February was 75.5 billion yuan [4] - This week's new general bond issuance was 75.5 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 36.3 billion yuan, and next week's planned issuance is 61.6 billion yuan [4] Special Bond - As of February 8, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds in February was 134.3 billion yuan [4] Local Government Bond Net Financing - This week's local government bond net financing scale was 578.9 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 268.1 billion yuan, and next week's planned net financing is 320.5 billion yuan [5] Treasury Bond Net Financing - This week's treasury bond net financing scale was 212 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 325.3 billion yuan, and next week's planned net financing is - 249.9 billion yuan [8] Government Bond Net Financing - This week's government bond net financing was 790.9 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 593.4 billion yuan, and next week's planned net financing is 70.6 billion yuan [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Report's Core View - The issuance and net financing of local government bonds in the current period increased significantly compared to the previous period, and it is expected to decline in the next period. The weighted issuance term of local government bonds in the current period shortened compared to the previous period, and the issuance spreads of 10/30-year local government bonds over the same-term treasury bonds increased, with the overall multiples rising. The issuance progress of new general bonds in 2026 exceeded that of the same period in 2025 but was slower than that in 2024, while the issuance progress of new special bonds was faster. The planned issuance scale of local government bonds in Q1 2026 is comparable to that in the same period in 2025, with larger planned issuance scales in January and March 2026 due to the late Spring Festival. The current 20 - 30Y local government bonds still have certain cost - effectiveness [2]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. The current issuance volume of local government bonds increased, and the weighted issuance term shortened - The total issuance/net financing of local government bonds in the current period (2026.2.2 - 2026.2.8) was 5796.73 billion yuan/5789.27 billion yuan (compared to 4392.75 billion yuan/3108.54 billion yuan in the previous period), and it is expected to be 3221.36 billion yuan/3204.98 billion yuan in the next period (2026.2.9 - 2026.2.15). The weighted issuance term of local government bonds in the current period was 16.12 years, shorter than 17.31 years in the previous period. The issuance spreads of 10/30-year local government bonds over the same - term treasury bonds increased to 16.63/19.59BP, and the overall multiples increased (20.8 times and 21.2 times in the current period, compared to 19.7 times and 19.1 times in the previous period) [2][9][11]. - As of February 6, 2026, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds/new special bonds accounted for 17.0% and 11.4% of the annual quota (calculated based on the 2025 quota), and considering the expected issuance in the next period, it will be 24.7% and 15.8%. The cumulative issuance progress in 2025 was 14.0%/4.8% and 15.7%/6.1%, and in 2024 it was 21.6%/5.6% and 21.6%/5.6% [2][13][16]. - The planned issuance scale of local government bonds in Q1 2026 is 248.85 billion yuan, comparable to the same period in 2025. As of February 6, 2026, 31 regions have disclosed a total planned issuance scale of 248.85 billion yuan. The planned issuance scales in January, February, and March 2026 are 84.44 billion yuan (actual issuance of 86.33 billion yuan), 68.32 billion yuan (57.97 billion yuan has been issued in the first week of February, and a total of 90.18 billion yuan is expected to be issued including the next week's forecast), and 96.09 billion yuan, compared to 39.20 billion yuan, 115.99 billion yuan, and 80.81 billion yuan in the same regions in the same period last year [2][23][28]. - The issuance of special new special bonds in the current period was 4.07 billion yuan, and the issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts and repaying existing debts was 30.24 billion yuan and 0 billion yuan respectively. As of February 6, 2026, the cumulative issuance of special new special bonds in 2026 was 6.94 billion yuan; the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts was 55.30 billion yuan, with an issuance progress of 27.7%; the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for repaying existing debts was 0.36 billion yuan [2][21]. 2. The spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds narrowed for 10Y and widened for 30Y, and the weekly turnover rate increased - As of February 6, 2026, the spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds and treasury bonds were 19.98BP and 21.90BP, narrowing by 0.90BP and widening by 5.80BP respectively compared to January 30, 2026, and were at the 53.40% and 85.70% historical quantiles since 2023 [2][35][36]. - The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds in the current period was 0.78%, up from 0.66% in the previous period. The yields and liquidity of 7 - 10Y local government bonds in Shandong, Tianjin, Liaoning and other regions were better than the national average [2][41]. - Currently, 20 - 30Y local government bonds still have certain cost - effectiveness. Taking the 10 - year local government bond as an observation anchor, the top of the spread adjustment since 2018 may be about 20 - 25BP above the lower limit of the issuance spread, and the bottom may be around the lower limit of the issuance spread. Currently, the top of the spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds may be around 30 - 35BP, and the bottom may be around 5 - 10BP [2].

Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The issuance of special refinancing bonds is accelerating, with significant amounts of special refinancing bonds and special new special-purpose bonds being disclosed [8] - There are differences between the planned and actual issuance of local government bonds in 2026, and the net financing amounts vary across different months [9] Summary by Directory 1. Issuance Forecast and Review - **2/2 - 2/8 Forecast**: Local government bonds are expected to be issued worth 5796.73 billion yuan, including 2098.11 billion yuan in new bonds (755.35 billion yuan in new general bonds and 1342.76 billion yuan in new special bonds) and 3698.61 billion yuan in refinancing bonds (442.82 billion yuan in refinancing general bonds and 3255.79 billion yuan in refinancing special bonds) [6] - **1/26 - 2/1 Review**: A total of 4392.75 billion yuan in local government bonds were issued, including 2322.72 billion yuan in new bonds (392.03 billion yuan in new general bonds and 1930.69 billion yuan in new special bonds) and 2070.03 billion yuan in refinancing bonds (847.84 billion yuan in refinancing general bonds and 1222.19 billion yuan in refinancing special bonds) [7] 2. Special Bond Issuance Progress - **Special Refinancing Bonds**: As of February 1st, the fifth round's second batch of special refinancing bonds totaled 20000.00 billion yuan, and the third batch totaled 5599.98 billion yuan, with an additional 3023.79 billion yuan to be newly disclosed next week. The top three regions in terms of the third - batch disclosure scale are Jiangsu (800.00 billion yuan), Zhejiang (564.00 billion yuan), and Henan (482.95 billion yuan) [8] - **Special New Special - Purpose Bonds**: As of February 1st, 95.88 billion yuan of special new special - purpose bonds for 2026 have been disclosed, and 25546.72 billion yuan have been disclosed since 2023. The top three regions in terms of the total disclosure scale since 2023 are Jiangsu (2440.35 billion yuan), Hubei (1377.69 billion yuan), and Henan (1325.34 billion yuan), while the top three in 2026 are Sichuan (62.58 billion yuan), Shandong (22.30 billion yuan), and Zhejiang (11.00 billion yuan) [8] 3. Local Issuance Plans and Actual Issuance - **2026 Plans**: In January, the planned issuance was 8059 billion yuan, an increase of 2529.96 billion yuan compared to the same period in 2025, with an actual disclosure of 8633 billion yuan, a planned repayment of 849 billion yuan, and a net financing of 8059 billion yuan. In February, the planned issuance is 8071 billion yuan, a decrease of 3818.89 billion yuan compared to the same period in 2025, with a planned repayment of 1662 billion yuan and a net financing of 6409 billion yuan. In March, the planned issuance is 8463 billion yuan, a decrease of 1353.98 billion yuan compared to the same period in 2025, with a planned repayment of 4191 billion yuan and a net financing of 4272 billion yuan [9] 4. Weighted Average Issuance Term - This week, the weighted average issuance term of local government bonds is 17.31 years, and next week it is 16.12 years. As of January 30th, it is 17.66 years, a 7.7% increase compared to the same period in 2025 [10] 5. Local Government Bond Investment and Trading - **One - Two - Level Spread**: The report presents the one - level and two - level spreads of local government bonds, as well as the two - level spreads by region [41][42] 6. New Special - Purpose Bond Allocations - The report provides a monthly statistics of the allocation of new special - purpose bonds, with the latest month's statistics considering only the issued new bonds [44]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The issuance and net financing of local government bonds in the current period increased significantly compared to the previous period, and it is expected to continue to rise in the next period. The current period (January 26 - February 1, 2026) saw a total issuance/net financing of RMB 439.275 billion/RMB 310.854 billion, and the next period (February 2 - February 8, 2026) is expected to be RMB 579.673 billion/RMB 578.927 billion [2]. - As of January 30, 2026, the issuance progress of new general bonds is slower than that in the same period of 2024 and 2025, but the issuance progress of new special bonds is faster. Considering the expected issuance in the next period, the cumulative issuance ratios of new general bonds and new special bonds to the annual quota (calculated based on the 2025 quota) are 17.0% and 11.4% respectively [2]. - The planned issuance scale of local government bonds in the first quarter of 2026 is approximately the same as that in the same period of 2025. Due to the late Spring Festival in 2026 (February), the planned issuance scale in January and March is relatively larger. The issuance peak of local government bonds in February may be mainly in the first week, and the issuance of special refinancing bonds to replace hidden debts will significantly accelerate [2]. - The current 10 - year local government bonds still have certain cost - effectiveness. Since 2018, the top of the spread adjustment may be about 20 - 25BP above the lower limit of the issuance spread, and the bottom may be near the lower limit of the issuance spread [2]. Summary by Directory 1. The issuance volume of local government bonds in the current period increased, and the weighted issuance term was extended - The total issuance and net financing of local government bonds in the current period increased significantly compared to the previous period. The current period's issuance/net financing is RMB 439.275 billion/RMB 310.854 billion, and the next period is expected to be RMB 579.673 billion/RMB 578.927 billion [2][9]. - The weighted issuance term of local government bonds in the current period is 17.31 years, which is longer than the previous period's 15.88 years [2][11]. - The issuance spreads of 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds compared to the same - term treasury bonds decreased/increased to 8.79/16.58BP respectively in the current period, and the full - field multiples decreased/increased [2][12]. - As of January 30, 2026, the issuance progress of new general bonds is slower than that in the same period of 2024 and 2025, but the issuance progress of new special bonds is faster. The cumulative issuance ratios of new general bonds and new special bonds to the annual quota (calculated based on the 2025 quota) are 7.6% and 8.4% respectively, and considering the expected issuance in the next period, they are 17.0% and 11.4% respectively [2][15][19]. - The planned issuance scale of local government bonds in the first quarter of 2026 is RMB 248.85 billion, which is comparable to that in the same period of 2025. The planned issuance scale in January and March 2026 is relatively larger. The issuance peak of local government bonds in February may be mainly in the first week, and the issuance of special refinancing bonds to replace hidden debts will significantly accelerate [2][25][30]. - In the current period, 19.1 billion yuan of special new special bonds were issued, and 8.39 billion yuan and 0 yuan of special refinancing bonds to replace hidden debts and repay existing debts were issued respectively [2][23]. 2. The spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds in the current period narrowed for 10 - year bonds and widened for 30 - year bonds, and the weekly turnover rate remained flat - As of January 30, 2026, the spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds and treasury bonds were 20.88BP and 16.10BP respectively, narrowing by 0.14BP and widening by 1.81BP compared to January 23, 2026, and were at the 59.50% and 57.90% historical quantiles since 2023 respectively [2][37][38]. - The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds in the current period is 0.66%, which is the same as the previous period [2][44]. - The yields and liquidity of 7 - 10 - year local government bonds in regions such as Ningbo, Qinghai, and Sichuan are better than the national average [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The introduction of special new special-purpose bonds has changed the traditional allocation logic of special-purpose bonds, and the allocation logic has become more complex due to regional economic and fiscal differences and the balance between economic development and "Three Guarantees" [4][7][18]. - The allocation of new special-purpose bond quotas at the provincial level generally follows the logic of "following the projects", but in recent years, the explanatory power of objective factors, especially debt risk factors, has decreased, and more attention is paid to management performance and local application factors. Since 2020, the quota allocation has been "tailored to local conditions and precisely targeted", showing regional heterogeneity [9][75][81]. - The allocation of new special-purpose bond quotas at the municipal level is more flexible and difficult to fully explain with objective factors. It is speculated that the resource coordination of provincial governments for municipalities will further reduce the explanatory power of objective factors [9][85][88]. - Some provinces have significant deviations in the actual allocation of new special-purpose bond quotas from the theoretical values. Some economic provinces may receive more quotas due to major project construction, while some regions may receive more funds for debt resolution [10][90]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Special-purpose Bonds as the Main Local Financing Method - The scale of special-purpose bonds has been continuously increasing. As of the end of 2025, the stock of local special-purpose bonds in China was 37 trillion yuan, accounting for nearly 70% of the total stock of local government bonds. The net financing of special-purpose bonds increased significantly in 2020 and 2024, and the issuance scale and stock are expected to continue to rise [19]. - Special-purpose bonds can be divided into new special-purpose bonds, refinancing special-purpose bonds, and replacement special-purpose bonds. There are also special refinancing special-purpose bonds and special new special-purpose bonds for debt resolution [21]. 3.2 Deviation between Special-purpose Bond Investment and Physical Workload - In 2024 and 2025, new special-purpose bond funds were mainly invested in transportation infrastructure, municipal and industrial park infrastructure, and other fields. However, there may be a situation where "money waits for projects", and the progress of some special-purpose bond funds in forming physical workload is slow [25][30]. 3.3 Debt Resolution Factors Becoming an Important Consideration in Special-purpose Bond Allocation - The spatial distribution of special-purpose bond stocks is uneven. Since 2023, the marginal changes have reflected the policy orientation of "risk prevention". The issuance of refinancing special-purpose bonds in the western region has increased rapidly, and the proportion of debt resolution funds in key provinces is relatively high [37]. 3.4 Process and Results of New Special-purpose Bond Quota Allocation - **Principles**: New special-purpose bond quota allocation mainly considers five factors: financial strength, debt risk, construction demand, capital efficiency, and local applications, and is adjusted by a fluctuation coefficient. Overall, it follows the principle of "rewarding the excellent and punishing the inferior", but also pays attention to risk prevention [8][47]. - **Results**: There is a positive correlation between the new special-purpose bond quota and the actual in - place investment in fixed assets, but there are also some deviations. The allocation of new special-purpose bond quotas can generally reflect the objective situation, but some provinces deviate from the trend, indicating that they may receive more special funds [53][57]. 3.5 Provincial Quota Allocation: From "Extensive Distribution" to "Precise Targeting" - The allocation of new special-purpose bond quotas at the provincial level generally follows the logic of "following the projects". In recent years, the explanatory power of objective factors has decreased, and more attention is paid to management performance and local application factors. Since 2020, the allocation logic has shown regional heterogeneity [9][75][81]. 3.6 Municipal Quota Allocation: From "Rewarding the Excellent and Punishing the Inferior" to "Overall Coordination" - The allocation of new special-purpose bond quotas at the municipal level is more flexible, and the overall explanatory power of objective factors is weaker. It is speculated that the resource coordination of provincial governments will further reduce the explanatory power of objective factors [85][88]. 3.7 Deviation Calculation: Which Provinces Receive More Special-purpose Bond Funds? - Provinces such as Shandong, Guangdong, Anhui, Tianjin, Gansu, and Xinjiang have a large upward deviation in the actual quota allocation from the theoretical value, while Shanghai, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang have a large downward deviation. Some economic provinces may receive more quotas for major project construction, and some regions may receive more funds for debt resolution [10][90].