◎记者 李苑 上海证券报记者梳理专项债券信息网披露数据发现，截至目前，今年地方债发行已逾8.5万亿元。其 中，新增专项债36795亿元，新增一般债6444亿元。"特殊"新增专项债发行规模远超去年安排的8000亿 元额度。 中国财政学会绩效专委会副主任委员张依群在接受上海证券报记者采访时表示，今年地方债发行进度保 持总体平稳、快中有进的态势，特别是地方置换债发行进度基本完成，新增债券发行和经济增长基本保 持同步，为经济持续向好发挥了关键作用。 "今年以来，地方债发行同比高增，是积极财政政策靠前发力的体现。从新增专项债资金投向来看，基 建领域仍是主要投向。"东方金诚研究发展部执行总监冯琳对上海证券报记者表示。 企业预警通数据显示，今年前三季度，地方政府发行的用于项目建设的2.5万亿元新增专项债项目中， 约28%投向市政和产业园基础设施，约18%投向交通基础设施，约14%投向土地储备，约12%投向保障 性安居工程，约12%投向医疗卫生、文化旅游、教育等社会事业，约6%投向农林水利等。 近年来地方置换债发行明显增多。根据去年11月全国人大常委会表决通过的议案，除了安排6万亿元地 方政府债务限额置换存量隐性债务，从20 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年09月25日 政府债周报 四季度地方债发行计划已披露七千三百亿 政府债净融资第 38 周（9/15-9/21）3179 亿，第 39 周（9/22-9/28）-220 亿。截至第 38 周（9/15-9/21）累计 11.5 万亿，超出去年同期 5.1 万 亿。 国债净融资+新增地方债发行第 38 周（9/15-9/21）4056 亿，第 39 周 （9/22-9/28）108 亿。截至第 38 周（9/15-9/21）广义赤字累计 9.7 万 亿，进度 81.9%。 国债第 38 周（9/15-9/21）净融资 2871 亿，第 39 周（9/22-9/28）-1444 亿。截至第 38 周（9/15-9/21）累计 5.5 万亿，进度 83.2%。 地方债净融资第 38 周（9/15-9/21）309 亿，第 39 周（9/22-9/28）1225 亿。截至第 38 周（9/15-9/21）累计 6.0 万亿，超出去年同期 2.7 万亿。 截至 9-24，四季度地方债发行计划七千三百亿，包括四百亿新增一般债 和三千九百亿新增专项债。截至 9-24，2025 年四季度地方债发行计 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The report tracks the supply and trading of local government bonds, including the issuance rhythm, pricing, and secondary - market trading characteristics [2][3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First - level Supply Rhythm - From September 8 to September 12, 2025, local government bonds worth 301.7 billion yuan were issued, including 131.9 billion yuan of new special bonds and 68 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds [2][9] - As of September 12, 2025, 41.4 billion yuan of special refinancing special bonds were issued in September, accounting for 6.8% of the monthly local bond issuance scale [2][9] - The average issuance interest rate of local bonds continued to rise. The spreads between the issuance interest rates of 30 - year, 20 - year, and 10 - year local bonds and the same - term treasury bonds widened to 19BP, 22BP, and 20BP respectively [2][16] - In September, Guangdong, Guizhou, Guangxi, Hebei, Sichuan, Hunan and other provinces were the main regions for local bond issuance. The issuance scale of 20 - 30 - year local bonds in Guangdong was close to 60 billion yuan, and the average coupon rates of local government bonds in Hunan, Guangxi, and Jilin were above 2.3% [18] 3.2 Second - level Trading Characteristics - Last week, the weekly fluctuations of 7 - 10 - year and over - 10 - year local bond indices were - 0.41% and - 0.97% respectively. The decline was smaller than that of over - 10 - year treasury bonds and almost the same as that of ultra - long - term credit bonds [3][23] - In terms of provinces, the trading activity of Guangdong government bonds increased, with the weekly trading volume increasing by 127 transactions compared with the previous period. The trading volumes of local bonds in Anhui and Jiangsu decreased significantly [3][23] - In terms of trading returns, the average trading term of Guangdong government bonds was about 27 years, with an average trading return of about 2.31%. The average trading terms of Sichuan and Jiangxi government bonds were close to 25.5 years, and the average trading returns were basically between 2.2% and 2.3% [3][23]

Report Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View The report presents some basic economic data, including the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment at 1.60%, the year-on-year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in the current month at 3.70%, the year-on-year growth rate of exports in the current month at 4.40%, and M2 at 8.80% [4]. Summary by Relevant Categories Government Bond Net Financing - Government bond net financing was 206.5 billion yuan in the 36th week (9/1 - 9/7) and 608 billion yuan in the 37th week (9/8 - 9/14). As of the 36th week, the cumulative amount reached 10.5 trillion yuan, exceeding the same period last year by 4.7 trillion yuan [1][5]. Treasury Bond and Local Bond - The net financing of treasury bonds was 169.8 billion yuan in the 36th week and 415.2 billion yuan in the 37th week. As of the 36th week, the cumulative amount was 4.8 trillion yuan, with a progress of 72.7%, exceeding the same period in the past five years [7]. - Local bond net financing was 36.7 billion yuan in the 36th week and 192.8 billion yuan in the 37th week. As of the 36th week, the cumulative amount was 5.7 trillion yuan, exceeding the same period last year by 2.9 trillion yuan [9]. New General Bonds and New Special Bonds - New general bonds had 0 net financing in the 36th week and 14.7 billion yuan in the 37th week. As of the 36th week, the cumulative amount was 620.8 billion yuan, with a progress of 77.6%, exceeding the same period last year [9]. - New special bonds had a net financing of 178 billion yuan in the 36th week and 131.9 billion yuan in the 37th week. As of the 36th week, the cumulative amount was 3.3 trillion yuan, with a progress of 74.6%, exceeding the same period last year. Special new special bonds of 112.23 billion yuan had been issued, including 15.43 billion yuan since September. Land reserve special bonds of 32.84 billion yuan had been issued [2][12]. Special Refinancing Bonds and Urban Investment Bonds - Special refinancing bonds had 0 net financing in the 36th week and 26.2 billion yuan in the 37th week. As of the 36th week, the cumulative amount was 1.96 trillion yuan, with a issuance progress of 98% [22]. - Urban investment bonds had a net financing of -36.9 billion yuan in the 36th week and are expected to be -10.9 billion yuan in the 37th week. As of this week, the balance of urban investment bonds was 10.1 trillion yuan [2][27].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating, so this part is skipped. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The front - loaded issuance of special refinancing bonds this year was significant. Although the issuance of new special bonds has accelerated, it is not led by project - based bonds. Instead, the issuance progress of debt - resolution bonds leads that of project - based bonds [1]. - Combining the current progress and historical rules, September and October may be the main nodes for the issuance of the remaining new special bonds, and the remaining issuance space is likely to be mainly for project - based bonds [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Debt - resolution Bonds' Issuance Progress Still Leads that of Project - based Bonds - As of August this year, local government bonds totaling 7.7 trillion yuan were issued, including 1.8 trillion yuan of general bonds (1.2 trillion yuan of refinancing general bonds + 0.6 trillion yuan of new general bonds) and 5.9 trillion yuan of special bonds (2.6 trillion yuan of refinancing special bonds + 3.3 trillion yuan of new special bonds). The issuance progress of both new general bonds and new special bonds was 75% [5][6]. - The issuance progress of special refinancing bonds reached 97%, almost completed, with only about 0.1 trillion yuan of issuance space remaining. Special new special bonds showed "over - issuance", possibly related to using some new special bonds to pay off enterprise arrears [8][9][10]. - By the end of August, only 8 regions had not completed the issuance of special refinancing bond quotas, and among the 12 key debt - resolution regions, only Guizhou and Liaoning had not used up their debt - resolution quotas [13]. 3.2 Special Bond Funds Mainly Flow into Three Major Areas - From January to August this year, new special bonds for project returns mainly flowed into three major areas: about 28% went to municipal and industrial park infrastructure, about 18% to transportation infrastructure, and about 14% to land reserves. These three areas accounted for a total of 60%. The top five categories accounted for 83% of the total [16]. - Compared with last year, the proportion of funds flowing into land reserves and affordable housing projects increased. The scale of land reserve special bonds exceeded 30 billion yuan this year, and the proportion of funds flowing into affordable housing projects exceeded that of social undertakings, mainly concentrated in shantytown renovation [17]. 3.3 September and October May Be the Main Nodes for the Issuance of the Remaining New Special Bonds - Although new special bonds reached a new monthly high in July, it was the special new special bonds related to debt resolution that increased in scale, while the monthly issuance scale of project - based ordinary new special bonds was relatively uniform [19]. - The issuance progress of special refinancing bonds and special new special bonds accelerated alternately. The acceleration of special new special bonds was not limited to key debt - resolution regions. Beijing, Guangdong, Shanghai, and Shenzhen issued special new special bonds for the first time this year [20][24]. - The proportion of ordinary new special bonds in key regions was only 33.6% on average, while that in non - key regions reached 74.9%, indicating that debt resolution in key regions squeezed project - based bonds. There is still 1.1 trillion yuan of issuance space for new special bonds, and based on the plans of 21 regions, the issuance scale in September may exceed 300 billion yuan. Considering historical rules, September and October may be the main nodes for the issuance of the remaining new special bonds [26].

Core Viewpoint - Local governments are accelerating borrowing to invest in major projects and repay old debts to boost the economy and mitigate risks [1] Group 1: Borrowing Scale and Purpose - In the first eight months of this year, local governments issued approximately 7.7 trillion yuan in bonds, a year-on-year increase of 42%, marking a historical high for the same period [1] - Of the 7.7 trillion yuan borrowed, about 4.77 trillion yuan was used for debt repayment, accounting for approximately 62% of the total borrowing [3] - The remaining nearly 3 trillion yuan was primarily allocated for major project construction [3] Group 2: Refinancing Bonds - Nearly 2 trillion yuan of the refinancing bonds issued this year was used to replace existing hidden debts, which is a key strategy for the central government to mitigate local government debt risks [2] - The refinancing bonds are aimed at extending repayment periods and reducing interest burdens, thereby freeing up funds for local governments to support livelihoods and promote development [2] Group 3: Special New Bonds - Special new bonds, which are generally used for major public projects, have also been utilized for replacing hidden debts or repaying overdue corporate payments, referred to as "special new special bonds" [2] - The issuance of special new bonds has exceeded market expectations, with nearly 1 trillion yuan issued for replacing hidden debts, surpassing the previously set target of 800 billion yuan [2][3] Group 4: Investment Allocation - Among the nearly 2.3 trillion yuan allocated for project construction, approximately 28% was directed towards municipal and industrial park infrastructure, 18% towards transportation infrastructure, and 14% towards land reserves [3] - The management of special bonds has adopted a "negative list" approach this year, significantly broadening the investment scope, including land reserves which received about 324 billion yuan [4] Group 5: Debt Risk Management - The overall risk of local government debt is considered manageable, with the total local government debt balance projected to be around 52.76 trillion yuan by July 2025, remaining within the limit of approximately 57.99 trillion yuan [4]

Report Summary Core Viewpoints - As of August 31, the issuance progress of new special-purpose bonds was 74.2%, with 188 billion yuan issued this week, a decrease of 51.3 billion yuan week-on-week. In August, the cumulative issuance of new special-purpose bonds was 486.5 billion yuan [4]. - As of August 31, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 77.6%, with 35.3 billion yuan issued this week, an increase of 25.8 billion yuan week-on-week. In August, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds was 82.5 billion yuan [7][9]. - This week, the net financing scale of local government bonds was 243.5 billion yuan, an increase of 34.7 billion yuan week-on-week. As of August 31, the issuance progress of new local government bonds was 74.7% [11]. - This week, the net financing scale of national bonds was -237.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 589.7 billion yuan week-on-week. As of August 31, the net financing progress of national bonds was 69.7% [15][17]. - As of August 31, the combined issuance progress of national bond net financing and new local government bonds was 71.9% [19]. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. Directory Summaries There is no clear directory information provided in the content, so this part cannot be summarized accordingly.

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of local government bonds remains strong, with a focus on special bonds for debt replacement, stabilizing the real estate market, and funding government investment projects [1][3][5]. Group 1: Local Government Bond Issuance - In August, the issuance of local government bonds reached 977.6 billion yuan, with new special bonds accounting for 486.6 billion yuan, representing about half of the total [1]. - From January to August, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds was 3.26 trillion yuan, which is 74% of the annual quota of 4.4 trillion yuan [3]. - The issuance of special bonds has accelerated in recent months, with amounts of 443.2 billion yuan, 527.1 billion yuan, 616.9 billion yuan, and 486.6 billion yuan from May to August [3]. Group 2: Debt Replacement and Financial Management - Over 40% of the new special bonds issued in August were allocated for government stock investment projects, primarily for debt replacement [1][3]. - The issuance of refinancing special bonds for replacing hidden debts reached 1.93 trillion yuan from January to August, with only about 70 billion yuan remaining for the year [1][3]. - The total issuance of special bonds for debt replacement from January to August was 9.68 trillion yuan, accounting for 30% of all new special bonds issued [3]. Group 3: Funding Allocation and Project Focus - The funds from new special bonds are primarily directed towards project construction, including municipal infrastructure, transportation, and social services [3][4]. - The issuance of land reserve special bonds has increased, with a total of 324 billion yuan issued across ten provinces from January to August [4]. - Special bonds for "stabilizing the real estate market" amounted to approximately 595 billion yuan from January to August, making it the second-largest category of funding after municipal infrastructure [5]. Group 4: Support for Government Investment Funds - A significant portion of the special bonds issued in August was directed towards government investment funds to support technological innovation and emerging industries [7][8]. - Various provinces, including Beijing and Shanghai, have issued special bonds to inject capital into government investment funds, with amounts ranging from 50 billion yuan to 100 billion yuan [7][8]. - The shift in the use of special bonds towards supporting strategic emerging industries reflects a broader trend of reallocating funds from traditional infrastructure to new infrastructure and innovation-driven projects [8][9].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The report tracks the supply and trading of local government bonds, including the issuance rhythm, pricing, and regional characteristics in the primary market, as well as the trading volume, price fluctuations, and regional differences in the secondary market [10][23]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Primary Supply Rhythm - **Issuance Scale**: Last week (August 18 - 22, 2025), local government bonds issued a total of 369.2 billion yuan, including 239.3 billion yuan in new special bonds and 73.5 billion yuan in refinancing special bonds. As of August 22, 2025, the issuance of special refinancing special bonds in August reached 55 billion yuan, accounting for 5.6% of the monthly local bond issuance [10]. - **Fund Use**: "Special new special bonds" and "ordinary/project revenue" are the main areas for special bond fund investment [10]. - **Pricing**: The average issuance interest rate of local bonds continued to rise. The spreads between the issuance interest rates of 30 - year, 20 - year, and 10 - year local bonds and the same - term treasury bonds widened to 23BP, 22BP, and 19BP respectively [17]. - **Regional Differences**: In August, Anhui, Zhejiang, Hebei, Hunan, and Jiangsu were the main regions for local bond issuance. Jiangsu's issuance scale of local bonds with a term of 7 years and less exceeded 50 billion yuan. The average coupon rates of local government bonds in Ningxia, Gansu, and Jilin were above 2.2% [20]. 2. Secondary Trading Characteristics - **Price Fluctuations**: Last week, the weekly fluctuations of the 7 - 10 - year and over - 10 - year local bond indexes were a decline of 0.56% and 1.03% respectively, with a larger decline than the same - term treasury bonds and the same performance as ultra - long - term credit bonds [23]. - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of Sichuan government bonds decreased significantly on a month - on - month basis, with a weekly decrease of 160 transactions. The trading volumes of local bonds in Guangxi and Zhejiang increased marginally [23]. - **Trading Income**: The average trading terms of government bonds in Shandong, Sichuan, Hebei, and Hunan were over 25 years, and the average trading income was basically between 2.2% and 2.3% [23].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View - The report presents key economic indicators including a 1.60% year - on - year cumulative growth in fixed asset investment, 3.70% year - on - year growth in the total retail sales of consumer goods for the current month, 7.20% year - on - year growth in exports for the current month, and an 8.80% growth in M2 [4]. 3. Summary by Related Categories Government Bond Net Financing - Government bond net financing was 5614 billion yuan in the 34th week (8/18 - 8/24) and 64 billion yuan in the 35th week (8/25 - 8/31). As of the 34th week, the cumulative net financing reached 10.3 trillion yuan, 4.8 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [1][5]. Treasury Bond - Treasury bond net financing was 3526 billion yuan in the 34th week and - 2371 billion yuan in the 35th week. The annual net financing is 6.66 trillion yuan. As of the 34th week, the cumulative net financing was 4.9 trillion yuan, with a progress of 73.7%, exceeding the average of the past five years [6]. Local Bond - Local bond net financing was 2088 billion yuan in the 34th week and 2435 billion yuan in the 35th week. As of the 34th week, the cumulative net financing was 5.5 trillion yuan, 3 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [8]. New General Bond - New general bond issuance was 95 billion yuan in the 34th week and 353 billion yuan in the 35th week. The 2025 local deficit is 8000 billion yuan. As of the 34th week, the cumulative issuance was 5855 billion yuan, with a progress of 73.2%, exceeding the same period last year [8]. New Special Bond - New special bond issuance was 2393 billion yuan in the 34th week and 1880 billion yuan in the 35th week. The 2025 new special bond quota is 4.4 trillion yuan. As of the 34th week, the cumulative issuance was 3.1 trillion yuan, with a progress of 69.9%, exceeding the same period last year [12]. Special New Special Bond - Special new special bonds worth 9680 billion yuan have been issued, with 2129 billion yuan issued since August, accounting for 44% of new special bonds. Besides 800 billion yuan for debt resolution, the remaining over 100 billion yuan will be used for "arrears clearance" [12]. Land Reserve Special Bond - Land reserve special bonds worth 3031 billion yuan have been issued. As of August 24, projects in 27 provinces and municipalities covered 4949 parcels of land, with a total capital scale of 5476 billion yuan [12]. Special Refinancing Bond - Special refinancing bond issuance was 245 billion yuan in the 34th week and 291 billion yuan in the 35th week. As of the 34th week, the cumulative issuance was 1.9 trillion yuan, with a progress of 95% [22]. Urban Investment Bond - Urban investment bond net financing was - 6 billion yuan in the 34th week and is expected to be - 402 billion yuan in the 35th week. As of this week, the balance of urban investment bonds is 10.2 trillion yuan [2][27].