Financing Overview - Government debt net financing for week 33 (8/11-8/17) was 200.9 billion, and for week 34 (8/18-8/24) it was 560.7 billion, totaling 980 billion by week 33, exceeding last year's 460 billion[1] - The cumulative general deficit reached 8.0 trillion, with a progress rate of 67.2% as of week 33[5] - National debt net financing for week 33 was 214.6 billion, and for week 34 it was 351.9 billion, with a cumulative total of 4.6 trillion, achieving 68.4% of the annual target[6] Local Government Debt - Local government debt net financing for week 33 was -13.7 billion, while week 34 saw 208.8 billion, with a cumulative total of 5.2 trillion, surpassing last year's 2.8 trillion[8] - New general bonds issued amounted to 30.3 billion in week 33 and 9.5 billion in week 34, with a cumulative total of 575.9 billion, achieving 72.0% of the annual target[8] Special Bonds and Other Debt - New special bonds issued in week 33 were 19.0 billion, and in week 34, they surged to 239.3 billion, with a cumulative total of 2.8 trillion, reaching 64.5% of the annual target[12] - Special refinancing bonds issued in week 33 were 1.2 billion, and in week 34, they increased to 24.5 billion, with a cumulative total of 1.9 trillion, achieving 94% of the issuance target[24] - City investment bonds saw net financing of -6.2 billion in week 33 and an estimated -23.5 billion in week 34, with a total balance of 10.2 trillion[29]

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank announced a 7-day reverse repurchase operation on August 19, with a fixed rate and quantity tendering of 580.3 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, with the same amount being the winning bid [1] - On the same day, 114.6 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net injection of 465.7 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Funding Conditions - The interbank market maintained a slight tightening trend, with the overnight repo weighted average rate initially exceeding 1.50% but later falling back to around 1.47% [3] - The latest overnight financing rate in the U.S. was reported at 4.36% [3] Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction rate for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks was around 1.67%, showing little change from the previous day [7] Group 4: Bond Market Overview - The yields on major interbank bonds mostly declined [9] - Government bond futures closed collectively higher, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.23%, the 10-year by 0.03%, the 5-year by 0.07%, and the 2-year by 0.03% [13] Group 5: Fiscal Data - From January to July, the national general public budget revenue was 1,358.39 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, while tax revenue was 1,109.33 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.3% [14] - Non-tax revenue increased by 2% to 249.06 billion yuan, with stamp duty revenue rising by 20.7% to 25.59 billion yuan, and securities transaction stamp duty increasing by 62.5% to 9.36 billion yuan [14] Group 6: Local Government Bonds - Guangdong Province plans to issue offshore RMB local government bonds in Macau, with an expected issuance scale of 2.5 billion yuan [14] Group 7: Credit Ratings - S&P Global Ratings confirmed the U.S. sovereign credit rating at "AA+/A-1+" with a stable outlook, projecting that the net general government debt will approach 100% of GDP [15]

Report Title - Government Bond Issuance Tracking - Week 33 of 2025 [2] Report Summary Government Bond Issuance Progress - As of August 17, the issuance progress of new special bonds was 64.5%, with 593 billion yuan issued in August [4][5] - As of August 17, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 72.0%, with 376 billion yuan issued in August [10][25] - As of August 17, the issuance progress of new local bonds was 65.6% [12] - As of August 17, the net financing progress of treasury bonds was 68.0% [18] - As of August 17, the combined progress of treasury bond net financing and new local bond issuance was 66.9% [20] Weekly Bond Issuance and Financing Data - This week, 190 billion yuan of new special bonds were issued, a decrease of 212 billion yuan from the previous week [4] - This week, 303 billion yuan of new general bonds were issued, an increase of 230 billion yuan from the previous week [8] - This week, the net financing scale of local bonds was -137 billion yuan, a decrease of 966 billion yuan from the previous week [12] - This week, the net financing scale of treasury bonds was 2146 billion yuan, a decrease of 1239 billion yuan from the previous week [16] - This week, the net financing of government bonds was 2009 billion yuan, a decrease of 2205 billion yuan from the previous week [20]

Group 1 - The enthusiasm for public fundraising has increased as the secondary market rebounds, with 16 public funds participating in fundraising projects exceeding 4.5 billion yuan in the last three months, and the highest project increase reaching 344% [1] - The demand for public fundraising is expected to remain strong in the second half of the year, with a focus on mergers and acquisitions financing, as over 40% of disclosed projects this year are related to financing [1] - The top five sectors for net inflow include domestic software, military industry, semiconductors, large finance, and new energy vehicles, while the top five concepts include artificial intelligence, Huawei supply chain, Xiaomi concept stocks, domestic chips, and cloud computing data centers [1] Group 2 - New policy financial tools are being expedited for approval, with local governments holding meetings to capture policy dividends, and infrastructure investment is expected to rebound in the second half of the year [3] - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange has lowered the initial public holding threshold for "A+H" issuers to 10% or a market value of 3 billion HKD, which is expected to encourage more A-share companies to list in Hong Kong [3] Group 3 - The government has included "Artificial Intelligence+" in its work report for 2024, with policies expected to be implemented soon, indicating a strong growth potential for the AI sector, particularly in hardware [5] - The next generation of large models, such as GPT-5, is anticipated to be a key variable in the AI industry's future, with expectations of significant improvements in performance and cost-effectiveness [5] Group 4 - The Shanghai Composite Index has reached a historical high, with major indices also hitting yearly peaks, indicating a clear acceleration in market activity, although regulatory scrutiny remains [7] - The market is entering a new acceleration phase, with signs of increased participation from various funds, particularly bank wealth management and public funds, expected to be significant contributors in the second half of the year [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The issuance and net financing of local government bonds decreased on a week-on-week basis this period, but are expected to increase significantly next period. The weighted issuance term shortened. The spread between 10Y local government bonds and treasury bonds widened, while the spread for 30Y narrowed. The weekly turnover rate increased on a week-on-week basis. The current cost-effectiveness of exploring the spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds is not high [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Local Government Bond Issuance and Net Financing - This period (2025.8.11 - 2025.8.17), local government bonds issued a total of 914.32 billion yuan, with a net financing of -137.36 billion yuan (last period was 1654.59 billion yuan/828.48 billion yuan). Next period (2025.8.18 - 2025.8.24), it is expected to issue 3691.50 billion yuan and have a net financing of 2088.00 billion yuan [2][4][6]. 2. Issuance Progress - As of August 15, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds/new special bonds accounted for 71.9% and 63.9% of the annual quota respectively. Considering the expected issuance next period, it will be 73.1% and 69.3%. The cumulative issuance progress in 2024 was 58.3%/49.2% and 61.1%/52.1%, and in 2023 it was 70.4%/67.7% and 73.7%/69.0% [2][4][15]. 3. Planned Issuance in August - September 2025 - As of August 15, 2025, 31 regions have disclosed a total planned issuance of 1638.8 billion yuan for local government bonds in August - September 2025 (8 - 9 months are 963.3 billion yuan and 675.5 billion yuan respectively), including 969.3 billion yuan for new special bonds [2][4][17]. 4. Special Bond Issuance - This period, 12.4 billion yuan of special new special bonds were issued, and 1.2 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts were issued. As of August 15, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special new special bonds was 807.7 billion yuan, and the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts was 1883 billion yuan, with an issuance progress of 94.2%. 26 regions including Zhejiang have completed all issuances (Dalian was newly added this period) [2]. 5. Spreads and Turnover Rate - As of August 15, 2025, the spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds and treasury bonds were 19.35BP and 11.25BP respectively, widening by 6.26BP and narrowing by 2.75BP compared to August 8, 2025. They are at the 51.50% and 34.70% historical quantiles since 2023. The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds this period was 0.65%, up from 0.57% last period [2][21][25]. 6. Cost - Effectiveness of Spread Exploration - Taking 10 - year local government bonds as the observation anchor, since 2018, the upper limit of the spread adjustment may be about 20 - 25BP above the lower limit of the issuance spread, and the lower limit may be near the lower limit of the issuance spread. Currently, the upper limit of the spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds may be around 30 - 35BP, and the lower limit may be around 5 - 10BP [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the first half of 2025, local government bond issuance was fast - paced, with a focus on resolving implicit local government debts through concentrated issuance of refinancing special bonds, which squeezed the issuance window for special bonds to some extent [2][45] - New special bonds will take over from refinancing special bonds, with an expected issuance scale of nearly 2 trillion yuan in the third quarter. Their investment directions show many highlights, such as diversification, covering payment arrears, and investing in government investment funds for the first time [2][46] - The issuance of local bonds shows significant regional differentiation. Five key debt - resolution provinces have higher issuance costs, while some economically developed provinces have lower issuance spreads. "Self - review and self - issuance" pilot areas are the main issuers, and key provinces mainly issue refinancing special bonds [3][46] - The expansion of local bond scale intensifies the repayment pressure in some regions, and the flexibility and autonomy of special bond issuance and use increase the management difficulty. Future management should strengthen the whole - life cycle management of special bond projects and leverage the role of special bond funds [4][47] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Local Bond Issuance in the First Half of 2025 - Overall, local government bonds issued about 5.49 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, a 57.18% increase year - on - year, reaching a record high. Net financing was about 4.41 trillion yuan, a 135.69% increase year - on - year [6] - In terms of bond types, refinancing special bonds and new special bonds were the main types. Refinancing special bonds issued 2.15 trillion yuan, accounting for 39.16% of the total. New special bonds issued 2.16 trillion yuan, accounting for 39.35% of the total, with a slow overall issuance progress in the first half of the year and an expected peak in the third quarter [7] - New special bonds are mainly invested in traditional infrastructure, but also show many highlights, including diversified investment, covering payment arrears, and investing in government investment funds for the first time [2][11] - Special refinancing bonds issued 1.80 trillion yuan, completing 90% of the annual quota, with issuance expected to slow down in the second half of the year. Special new special bonds issued 4647.80 billion yuan, accounting for 8.47% of the total, with large issuance potential [2][15] 2. Regional Differentiation in Local Bond Issuance - In terms of overall issuance, Jiangsu Province issued the most local bonds, 5500.6 billion yuan, mainly refinancing special bonds. Shandong, Guangdong, and Sichuan issued over 300 billion yuan [25] - In terms of issuance spreads, five key debt - resolution provinces have spreads mostly above 20BP, while some economically developed provinces have spreads compressed to within 10BP [3][27] - "Self - review and self - issuance" pilot areas (excluding Hebei Xiongan New Area) issued 2.95 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, accounting for 53.73% of the total. They are expected to speed up the issuance of new special bonds in the future [31] - Twelve key provinces issued 2.15 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, mainly refinancing special bonds. Many provinces are accelerating their exit from the list of high - risk debt areas, and those that exit are expected to increase the quota of new special bonds [34][37] 3. Problems and Prospects of Local Bonds - Problems include the increased repayment pressure in some regions due to the large - scale growth of local bonds and weakening fiscal revenue, and the increased management difficulty of special bonds due to enhanced flexibility and autonomy [38] - In terms of repayment pressure, the balance of local government debts has risen rapidly, and although the average term has been extended and the average interest rate has decreased, the weak fiscal revenue may intensify the interest - payment pressure [38][39] - In terms of special bond management, there are problems such as illegal investment, false reporting, misappropriation, and idle funds. Future management should focus on strengthening investment area management, full - process management, and expanding the proportion of special bonds used as project capital [43][44] 4. Summary - In the first half of 2025, local government bond issuance was fast - paced, with a focus on resolving implicit debts. New special bonds will take over, and special new special bonds have large issuance potential [45][46] - Regional differentiation is significant, and "self - review and self - issuance" pilot areas will play an important role. Key provinces mainly issue refinancing special bonds, and provinces exiting high - risk debt areas may increase new special bond quotas [46] - The expansion of local bond scale and weak fiscal revenue increase repayment pressure, and special bond management needs to be strengthened. In the future, new special bonds will be issued and used more quickly, and investment areas may be further expanded [47]

Government Debt Financing - Net financing for government debt in week 32 (8/4-8/10) was 421.4 billion, and in week 33 (8/11-8/17) it was 200.9 billion, totaling 9.6 trillion, exceeding last year's figure by 4.9 trillion[1][5] - The net financing for national bonds and new local bonds in week 32 was 386.1 billion, and in week 33 it was 264 billion, with a cumulative broad deficit of 7.7 trillion, achieving 65.0% of the annual target[1][5] - National bonds net financing in week 32 was 338.6 billion, and in week 33 it was 214.6 billion, with a cumulative total of 4.3 trillion, reaching 65.2% of the annual target[1][7] Local and Special Bonds - Local debt net financing in week 32 was 82.8 billion, while in week 33 it was -13.7 billion, with a cumulative total of 5.3 trillion, exceeding last year's figure by 3 trillion[1][9] - New general bonds in week 32 amounted to 7.3 billion, and in week 33 it was 30.3 billion, with a cumulative total of 545.6 billion, achieving 68.2% of the annual target[1][9] - New special bonds in week 32 were 40.3 billion, and in week 33 it was 19 billion, with a cumulative total of 2.8 trillion, reaching 64.0% of the annual target[2][12] - Special new bonds issued totaled 857.9 billion, with 102.8 billion issued in August alone, accounting for 61% of the new special bonds[2][12] Risk and Market Indicators - Special refinancing bonds in week 32 had no issuance, while in week 33 it was 1.2 billion, with a cumulative total of 1.9 trillion, achieving 94% of the issuance target[2][21] - Urban investment bonds in week 32 had net financing of 20.6 billion, while week 33 is projected to be -21.5 billion, with the total balance of urban investment bonds below 10.3 trillion[2][26] - Fixed asset investment year-on-year growth is at 2.80%, retail sales growth is at 4.80%, and export growth is at 7.20%[4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The report focuses on the issuance progress of local government bonds and special refinancing bonds in 2025. It details the actual and forecasted issuance amounts of local government bonds from August 4 - 10 and August 11 - 17, as well as the issuance status of special refinancing bonds and special new special - purpose bonds as of August 10 [2][4][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Local Bond Actual Issuance and Forecasted Issuance - From August 4 - 10, local bonds issued a total of 1654.59 billion yuan, including 475.49 billion yuan of new bonds (72.83 billion yuan of new general bonds and 402.66 billion yuan of new special - purpose bonds) and 1179.10 billion yuan of refinancing bonds (819.06 billion yuan of refinancing general bonds and 360.04 billion yuan of refinancing special - purpose bonds) [2][5]. - From August 11 - 17, the disclosed issuance of local bonds is 914.32 billion yuan, including 493.56 billion yuan of new bonds (303.21 billion yuan of new general bonds and 190.34 billion yuan of new special - purpose bonds) and 420.76 billion yuan of refinancing bonds (286.32 billion yuan of refinancing general bonds and 134.45 billion yuan of refinancing special - purpose bonds) [2][4]. - The plan and actual issuance of local bonds in July and August are compared, and the monthly issuance plan, actual issuance, and net financing of local bonds in recent months are presented [15][17][21]. 3.2 Local Bond Net Supply - As of August 10, the issuance progress of new general bonds is 66.68%, and that of new special - purpose bonds is 63.67% [26]. - The cumulative scale of the difference between refinancing bonds and local bond maturities as of August 10 is presented [26]. 3.3 Special Bond Issuance Details - As of August 10, the fourth - round special refinancing bonds have a total disclosed amount of 43557.43 billion yuan, with 19672.18 billion yuan disclosed in 2025 and an additional 12.11 billion yuan to be disclosed next week. The top three regions in terms of disclosed scale are Jiangsu (5647.00 billion yuan), Hunan (2787.32 billion yuan), and Shandong (2413.98 billion yuan) [6]. - As of August 10, the total disclosed amount of special new special - purpose bonds in 2025 is 4407.33 billion yuan, and since 2023, it is 16312.46 billion yuan. The top three regions in terms of disclosed scale are Jiangsu (2102.35 billion yuan), Hubei (1287.69 billion yuan), and Xinjiang (1188.60 billion yuan). In 2025, the top three regions are Jiangsu (951.00 billion yuan), Hebei (391.43 billion yuan), and Hubei (369.13 billion yuan) [6]. 3.4 Local Bond Investment and Trading - The first - and second - level spreads of local bonds are presented, including the spreads of different tenors and the changes over time [39]. - The second - level spreads of local bonds in different regions from May to August 2025 are provided [42]. 3.5 New Special - Purpose Bond Investment Directions The monthly statistics of the investment directions of new special - purpose bonds are presented, and the latest month's statistics only consider the issued new bonds [45].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The issuance and net financing of local government bonds decreased on a week - on - week basis this period, and it is expected that both will continue to decline significantly next period. The current local government bond spread - hunting market may be approaching its end [2]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 This period's local government bond issuance volume decreased, and the weighted issuance term shortened - This period (August 4 - 10, 2025), local government bonds issued a total of 165.459 billion yuan and had a net financing of 82.848 billion yuan (compared with 337.175 billion yuan and 243.062 billion yuan in the previous period). Next period (August 11 - 17, 2025), the expected issuance is 91.432 billion yuan and the net financing is - 13.736 billion yuan. The weighted issuance term of local government bonds this period was 14.23 years, shorter than 14.39 years in the previous period [2][9]. - As of August 8, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds and new special bonds accounted for 68.2% and 63.5% of the annual quota respectively. Considering the expected issuance next period, it will be 71.9% and 63.9%. The cumulative issuance progress in 2024 was 56.1%/46.2% and 58.3%/49.2%, and in 2023 it was 68.7%/66.7% and 70.4%/67.7% [2][18]. - The planned issuance of local government bonds from August to September 2025 totals 163.88 billion yuan, with new special bonds amounting to 96.93 billion yuan. As of August 8, 2025, 31 regions have disclosed the planned issuance, with 96.33 billion yuan in August and 67.55 billion yuan in September [2][22]. - This period, 4.03 billion yuan of special new special bonds were issued, and 0 yuan of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts were issued. As of August 8, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special new special bonds was 79.54 billion yuan, and the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts was 188.18 billion yuan, with an issuance progress of 94.1% [2][20]. 3.2 This period, the spread between 10 - year local government bonds and treasury bonds widened, the spread of 30 - year bonds narrowed, and the weekly turnover rate decreased on a week - on - week basis - As of August 8, 2025, the spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds and treasury bonds were 13.09BP and 14.00BP respectively, widening by 0.68BP and narrowing by 0.10BP compared with August 1, 2025. They were at the 14.90% and 55.10% historical quantiles since 2023 respectively [2]. - The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds this period was 0.57%, a week - on - week decrease from 0.69% in the previous period. The yields and liquidity of 7 - 10Y local government bonds in regions such as Yunnan, Anhui, and Sichuan were better than the national average [2].

Government Debt Financing - Net financing for government debt in week 31 (July 28 - August 3) was 402.8 billion, and in week 32 (August 4 - August 10) it was 397.4 billion, totaling 9.2 trillion, exceeding last year's 5 trillion[1] - The cumulative general deficit reached 7.3 trillion, with a progress rate of 61.7%[5] - Net financing for treasury bonds in week 31 was 160.2 billion, and in week 32 it was 314.6 billion, totaling 4.0 trillion, with a progress rate of 60.1%[7] Local Government Debt - Net financing for local government debt in week 31 was 242.5 billion, and in week 32 it was 82.8 billion, totaling 5.2 trillion, exceeding last year's 3.1 trillion[9] - New general bonds issued in week 31 were 20.9 billion, and in week 32 they were 7.3 billion, with a cumulative total of 538.3 billion and a progress rate of 67.3%[9] Special Bonds - New special bonds in week 31 amounted to 183.2 billion, and in week 32 they were 40.3 billion, with a cumulative total of 2.8 trillion and a progress rate of 63.1%[13] - Special new bonds issued reached 806 billion, surpassing the initial target of 800 billion, with 509 billion issued since August, accounting for 98% of new special bonds[13] Risk and Warnings - There is a risk of data statistical errors, with actual issuance potentially differing significantly from planned figures[3]