Investment Rating - Investment rating: Positive (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that the dividends are stable and sustainable, driven by steady growth and cyclical trends [6] - The banking sector is expected to show stable performance in Q1 2025, continuing the revenue and net profit growth momentum from Q4 2024 [6] - The report highlights the importance of government bond issuance and its impact on social financing, predicting an increase in social financing in March 2025 [4] Summary by Sections Credit Forecast - In March, new RMB loans are expected to increase by approximately 3.1 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.2% [3] - Corporate loans are projected to contribute about 2.3 trillion yuan, supported by sufficient project reserves and government bond issuance [3] - Retail loans are expected to add around 900 billion yuan, primarily driven by mortgage demand [3] Social Financing Prediction - Social financing is anticipated to increase by about 5 trillion yuan in March, with a stock growth rate of 8.2% [4] - The acceleration of government bond issuance is expected to significantly support social financing [4] Monetary Supply Prediction - M2 is projected to grow by 7.1% year-on-year in March, with a slight increase in the month-on-month growth rate [5] - The report attributes the expected rise in monetary growth to increased fiscal spending and improved corporate liquidity [5] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends maintaining a focus on dividend strategies, particularly in state-owned banks, which are expected to benefit from stable dividends and valuation recovery [6] - Specific stock recommendations include CITIC Bank, Agricultural Bank of China, and China Merchants Bank, with a cyclical logic favoring Suzhou Bank and its peers [6]