以下文章来源于华尔街见闻Max ，作者董静 这些账户的注册时间均在2月， 多数钱包在袭击发生前24小时内才完成充值，且除上述押注外无任何其他交易记录。 此次事件引发市场对预测平台监管漏洞的强烈关注。 与此同时，美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）上周刚就预测市场内幕交易问题发出警告，监管压力正在升温。 华尔街见闻Max . 华尔街见闻姊妹号，直击全球市场风暴，助力投资者决策。 由于公众号发布次数有限制，部分内容会发到华尔街见闻Max上， 欢迎关注 美国对伊朗发动军事打击的消息震动全球市场，但在爆炸声响起之前，预测市场上已有人悄然布局。 据区块链分析机构Bubblemaps日前披露， Polymarket平台上六个疑似内幕账户在美国空袭伊朗前数小时集中押注"是"，合计获利约120万美元 。 美 国和以色列2月28日对伊朗发动大规模联合军事打击。据央视新闻报道，特朗普当天在"真实社交"平台发布视频，确认美军已对伊朗发动"重大作战行动"，并 向德黑兰喊话称"等行动结束，接管你们的政府"。 消息公开后，比特币价格出现下跌，Hyperliquid平台上的石油期货则因地区冲突升级预期而走高。这一合约市场的交易量在2月28日 ...

吴说获悉，针对社区质疑其提前预告内幕交易调查可能会让涉事公司提前在预测市场上进行内幕交易押 注，链上侦探 ZachXBT 回应称，由于该案件调查过程中需要采访一些人，因此信息泄露可能是在所难 免的。当被问及为何在此情况下仍要发布预告时，ZachXBT 解释道，过去预测市场并没有如今这么高 的相关性与热度，而且他以前也从未发过能获得 800 万次浏览和 2.7 万次点赞的病毒式传播预告帖。在 被问及以后是否还有预告时，ZachXBT 表示这取决于调查的类型。 （来源：吴说） ...

Core Viewpoint - Kalshi's CEO Tarek Mansour supports a bill proposed by U.S. Congressman Ritchie Torres aimed at banning insider trading in prediction markets, emphasizing that Kalshi adheres to NYSE and NASDAQ regulations regarding such restrictions [1] Group 1 - Kalshi has implemented measures to comply with regulations set by major exchanges like NYSE and NASDAQ [1] - Recent controversies in prediction markets have primarily arisen from "offshore, unregulated" platforms [1] - A specific incident involving Polymarket, where a user profited approximately $400,000 from betting on the Venezuelan presidential situation, has sparked discussions about insider trading [1]

Core Insights - The prediction market is facing scrutiny over potential insider trading, with reports indicating that several Polymarket accounts profited from bets placed before major product announcements by OpenAI and Google, raising questions about the integrity of these platforms [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Activity and Growth - Polymarket and Kalshi have experienced significant increases in trading volume, with Kalshi's trading volume surging approximately fivefold in the past six months, reaching an average daily trading volume of $183 million [2][6] - Polymarket's average daily trading volume has increased over sixfold to $197 million, indicating a growing interest in prediction markets [2][6] Group 2: Suspicious Trading Patterns - Certain accounts have demonstrated a pattern of making large bets shortly before announcements, with a notable case where four accounts profited over $13,000 from bets on OpenAI's new model prior to its release [1][3] - A specific account made over $1 million in a single day by accurately betting on Google's 2025 search data, leading to widespread speculation that the account may be operated by an insider [1][3] Group 3: Regulatory Landscape - The issue of insider trading in prediction markets exists in a regulatory gray area, as the SEC does not oversee these markets, leaving jurisdiction to the CFTC or the Department of Justice [4] - Legal experts suggest that profiting from confidential information in prediction markets could violate legal obligations to employers, likening it to a form of fraud [4] Group 4: Industry Leaders' Perspectives - Industry leaders express mixed views on allowing employees to bet on their companies' activities, with Coinbase's CEO indicating that the issue is not straightforward [5] - Some companies, including Google and Anthropic, have established internal prediction markets where employees can make predictions without using real money, aiming to leverage insider knowledge for better forecasting [5] Group 5: Future Developments - The rapid expansion of prediction markets has prompted companies to consider establishing national standards for insider trading, with several firms forming a new industry organization to advocate for federal regulation [4][6] - As interest in prediction markets grows, platforms like Robinhood and Coinbase are also entering the space, further increasing competition and market activity [6]

Core Insights - The prediction market is facing scrutiny over potential insider trading, with reports indicating that several Polymarket accounts profited from bets placed before major product announcements by OpenAI and Google, raising questions about the integrity of these platforms [1][3] - The rapid growth of prediction markets has intensified regulatory concerns, with significant increases in trading volumes reported for platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket [2][7] Group 1: Insider Trading Concerns - Multiple Polymarket accounts made profitable bets on OpenAI's GPT-5.2 release and Google's 2025 search data, leading to suspicions of insider trading [1][3] - KPMG noted a doubling in discussions with corporate clients about including prediction markets in insider trading policies over the past six months [1] - Companies like Robinhood and Coinbase have already updated their policies to restrict employee participation in prediction markets [1] Group 2: Regulatory Landscape - The issue of insider trading in prediction markets exists in a regulatory gray area, as the SEC does not oversee these markets since they do not qualify as securities [4] - The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) or the Department of Justice may have jurisdiction over such cases, but using confidential information for profit could violate legal obligations to employers [4] - A new industry organization has been formed by companies like Kalshi and Coinbase to advocate for federal regulation and establish national standards against insider trading [4] Group 3: Market Growth and Popularity - Kalshi's trading volume surged approximately fivefold in the past six months, with a recent average daily trading volume of $183 million, while Polymarket's daily trading volume increased over sixfold to $197 million [2][7] - The flexibility of prediction markets, allowing bets on various events, has contributed to their popularity, especially with the upcoming 2024 presidential election [7] - Both Kalshi and Polymarket have seen significant user engagement, with Kalshi recently receiving approval from the CFTC to serve U.S. users [7] Group 4: Industry Leaders' Perspectives - Industry leaders express mixed views on allowing employees to bet on their companies' activities, with Coinbase's CEO suggesting that such practices could enhance market accuracy but also compromise market integrity [6] - Some companies, including Google and Anthropic, have established internal prediction markets where employees can make predictions without using real money, aiming to leverage insider knowledge for better forecasting [6]