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风光装机跃进 电力系统低碳转型迎"十五五"关键窗口
Core Insights - The Chinese power system is undergoing a historic transformation as renewable energy installations surpass coal power for the first time, marking a new phase in the energy structure transition [1] - By September 2025, renewable energy installations accounted for 59.1% of the total, solidifying the position of clean energy in power supply [1] - Despite the growth in wind and solar power, coal power installations continue to rise, creating structural tension between clean energy expansion and traditional coal reliance [1] Renewable Energy Developments - The report highlights that many provinces have exceeded their "14th Five-Year Plan" targets for solar installations, with some like Fujian surpassing 400% of their goals [2] - However, the introduction of the "136 Document" in early 2025 has led to a significant decline in new solar installations, with a sharp year-on-year decrease from June to September 2025 [2] Coal Power Trends - Coal power approvals have reached approximately 335 million kilowatts during the "14th Five-Year Plan," more than double that of the "13th Five-Year Plan" [3] - A structural turning point for coal power approvals is anticipated in 2024, with a further decline expected in the first three quarters of 2025 [3] - The trend of coal power approvals is shifting westward, with western provinces accounting for over 50% of the total approvals in the first three quarters of 2025 [4][5] Coal Power's Role in the Energy Transition - The redefinition of coal power's role is a central issue in the energy transition, with over 70% of new coal power projects justified as necessary for ensuring power supply [6] - Current expectations for coal power utilization hours are high, averaging over 4,800 hours, which may conflict with the evolving energy system [6] Energy Storage Solutions - New energy storage installations have surpassed 10 million kilowatts by September 2025, with significant contributions from provinces like Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang [7] - The "wind-solar + storage" model is showing potential to replace coal power functions, particularly in Jiangsu, where wind and solar generation growth has outpaced electricity demand growth [7] Policy Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of policy coordination for addressing structural challenges in the energy transition during the "15th Five-Year Plan" [8] - It suggests that energy authorities should expedite the development of a top-level design for power sector transformation, enhancing the synergy between coal, wind, solar, and storage [8]