Core Insights - The Chinese power system is undergoing a historic transformation as renewable energy installations surpass coal power for the first time, marking a new phase in the energy structure transition [1] - By September 2025, renewable energy installations accounted for 59.1% of the total, solidifying the position of clean energy in power supply [1] - Despite the growth in wind and solar power, coal power installations continue to rise, creating structural tension between clean energy expansion and traditional coal reliance [1] Renewable Energy Developments - The report highlights that many provinces have exceeded their "14th Five-Year Plan" targets for solar installations, with some like Fujian surpassing 400% of their goals [2] - However, the introduction of the "136 Document" in early 2025 has led to a significant decline in new solar installations, with a sharp year-on-year decrease from June to September 2025 [2] Coal Power Trends - Coal power approvals have reached approximately 335 million kilowatts during the "14th Five-Year Plan," more than double that of the "13th Five-Year Plan" [3] - A structural turning point for coal power approvals is anticipated in 2024, with a further decline expected in the first three quarters of 2025 [3] - The trend of coal power approvals is shifting westward, with western provinces accounting for over 50% of the total approvals in the first three quarters of 2025 [4][5] Coal Power's Role in the Energy Transition - The redefinition of coal power's role is a central issue in the energy transition, with over 70% of new coal power projects justified as necessary for ensuring power supply [6] - Current expectations for coal power utilization hours are high, averaging over 4,800 hours, which may conflict with the evolving energy system [6] Energy Storage Solutions - New energy storage installations have surpassed 10 million kilowatts by September 2025, with significant contributions from provinces like Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang [7] - The "wind-solar + storage" model is showing potential to replace coal power functions, particularly in Jiangsu, where wind and solar generation growth has outpaced electricity demand growth [7] Policy Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of policy coordination for addressing structural challenges in the energy transition during the "15th Five-Year Plan" [8] - It suggests that energy authorities should expedite the development of a top-level design for power sector transformation, enhancing the synergy between coal, wind, solar, and storage [8]

在"十四五"规划收官之际，中国电力系统正迎来历史性转折。 近日，国际环保机构绿色和平与上海国际问题研究院联合发布的《迈向"十五五"：中国电力低碳转型新 常态与新机遇》研报指出，随着风电与光伏装机总量在2025年第一季度首次超过火电，中国电力结构转 型已迈入新阶段。截至2025年9月底，全国可再生能源装机占比达59.1%，清洁能源在电力供应中的主 体地位进一步巩固。 然而，在风光装机跃进的背后，煤电装机仍保持高位增长，形成"清洁扩容与传统惯性"并存的结构性张 力。 《中国经营报》记者梳理发现，截至2025年6月，全国仅吉林省煤电装机出现下降，其余省份均持平或 增长。其中内蒙古、山东、江苏、新疆、山西五省（区）煤电累计装机规模居前，广西、湖南等省 （区）在"十四五"期间煤电装机增幅甚至超过40%。这一现象反映出当前电力系统转型的复杂性与区域 性差异。 绿色和平能源低碳发展项目组在上述研报中指出，尽管光伏装机在多数省份超额完成"十四五"目标—— 如河南、重庆、江苏、浙江完成率均超300%，福建更是突破400%——但2025年年初出台的"136号 文"终结了固定上网电价制度，导致光伏新增装机在政策执行后出现显著下滑。 ...