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申能股份(600642):2025 年三季报点评:严控成本,营收承压利润稳健增长
Zhongyuan Securities· 2025-11-07 09:26
Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating a potential increase of 5% to 15% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [32]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 7.974 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 8.27%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.238 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.64% [4][5]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 20.932 billion yuan, down 6.64% year-on-year, but net profit increased by 1.04% to 3.315 billion yuan [4][5]. - The company has effectively controlled costs, leading to a significant improvement in profit quality despite revenue pressures [5][6]. Financial Performance - The company's gross profit margin stood at 22.84%, with a diluted return on equity of 8.06% as of September 30, 2025 [4]. - Operating cash flow for the first three quarters was 7.319 billion yuan, up 19.39% year-on-year, indicating strong cash generation capabilities [4][5]. - Financial expenses decreased by 17.72% year-on-year to 718 million yuan, contributing to the stabilization of the company's performance [6]. Business Structure and Growth - The company is undergoing a low-carbon transition in its power generation business, with a focus on increasing efficiency and expanding renewable energy capacity [7][9]. - The installed capacity as of Q3 2025 reached 18.5939 million kilowatts, an increase of 8.7% year-on-year, with renewable energy sources contributing significantly to the overall generation mix [7]. - The company is actively pursuing oil and gas exploration and accelerating the development of new energy projects, enhancing its position in the energy sector [9]. Dividend Policy - Since its listing in 1993, the company has maintained a consistent cash dividend policy, with cumulative cash dividends exceeding 24.714 billion yuan, representing a payout ratio of 46.9% [10]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 3.993 billion yuan, 4.141 billion yuan, and 4.326 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding earnings per share of 0.82 yuan, 0.85 yuan, and 0.88 yuan [11]. - Based on the closing price of 8.49 yuan per share on November 6, 2025, the price-to-earnings ratios for the next three years are estimated at 10.41X, 10.03X, and 9.61X, suggesting a favorable valuation relative to industry prospects [11].